It could be a bit early, but I think a reversal is coming as crude oil is forming a great looking spike with this daily chart.
WTI crude oil price is also approaching the Fibonacci $55 price level and potential support going back to early 2017. It could be a violent reversal as some fundamental news will come out and get the oil bulls all excited again. The $56 price level is a far cry from the $100+ price forecasts they did have. The Gold/Oil ratio improved nicely and is now sitting at the 21.42:1 ratio. Oil still has a long way to go before this ratio turns extreme, but in the short-term, a rally should ensue.
They have already declared oil in a conventional bear market, but from an EWP perspective, the entire bull market could be a bear market rally. Using stock market descriptions in the commodities markets is like mixing oil and water, they will not work if we don’t understand how big bear market rallies can actually get!
How high the counter rally could go is just the best guess, but $60-$67 will start to give crude oil some resistance. Wave 1-2 rally or a “B” wave rally in Minor degree would also work.
The crude oil price is still crashing as I post, so trying to catch a Falling Knife, will put you in the read very quickly.
Any choppy counter rally that we do run into would be a small version of a “Bear market rally”. The 200-day MA is at the $64 price level after which the Death Cross on a daily chart could also happen.