The fundamentals regarding crude oil changes as fast as the wind, besides that I bet there isn’t a single analyst that knows what fundamental news made oil rise into last year, and then crash and burn into early 2019. I sure don’t know as well but the gold/oil ratio sure gave me a clue that it was going to happen. Even though satellite spying is extremely sophisticated as they can track the floating roofs on storage tanks.
The US has been accused of refined oil product contamination which happened recently in South Korea, to where they refused shipments. Of course, they just turned that oil around and sold it to China.
Beside that most fundamentals regarding oil supply and demand can be just pure false news to keep enemies guessing. In today’s world, it is very easy to manipulate the news, so unless you have a Bull Shit Detector App on your smartphone we will never know the facts.
Even though wave counts can be pretty foggy most of the time they still over more “Truth” than fundamental news does.
Yes, oil can go higher but we are at a 20.98:1 Gold/Oil ratio which is the most expensive it’s been since November 2018 when it was at 17.37:1.
Oil seems to love crashing at around 17:1 which it did in the 2014 decline.
Math doesn’t lie only people do, so any gold/oil ratio can supply more objectivity in a world filled with fake news. “Fake News” and “Propaganda” is the same thing, so its not rocket science to see which countries use the most propaganda.
The commercial hedger’s net short positions make the potential for a big bullish move very unlikely, as open interest is also hitting record lows.
There are “No” daily trading limits in crude oil so that does produce some very long free falling type moves. Traders will be piling on the protective sell stops and once they get triggered, there are no daily limits to slow it down.