So far oil has been having a very bullish January which started in December 2018. This February crude oil chart has now developed a very nice vertical spike to the upside. This is usually a setup for correction or the end of an entire bullish move. A correction and then a leg higher would add a 5th wave to this bullish phase but then oil is facing stiff resistance near the $55 price level. I’m biased to Fibonacci numbers and we are facing the 50-day MA which will also produce resistance. We have a long way to go with price and time before any Death Cross can happen.
We had a Gold/Oil ratio low of just under 30:1, but with this present rally kicking in we are not at a 25.17:1 ratio. Readings of 17:1 has caused an oil price crash several times already. We may never reach any 17:1 ratio this time, but gold/oil ratios could hit a brick wall just the same. The ratio could stall which I can’t see unless I check it several times per week. During November 2018 I had about 14 calculations.
Commercial traders are still net long with the government COT report being delayed due to the government shutdown. It’s kind of ironic when the government is shut down and the stock markets still go up. I’m still bullish on oil but I sure would not take a bullish position when the spike is visible.