Crude oil created a bottom on January 1-2 and then proceeded to make a bullish run that has now turned into a correction. If this entire bullish move is just a bear market rally then crude oil should still crash to new record lows below that $42.50 price level. A bearish rally will slice the bottom trend line in two, but this correction can be the 4th wave as well. We might get support at the $49 price level which may take several weeks before we find out. None of the COT reports are working while the US government is shut down.
Even my Gold/Oil ratio has not changed any recently, as we are now at 25.46:1, from a January 2, 2019, reading of 28.77:1. If the reading jumped back to a 17:1 ratio, then I sure would be very bearish on oil.
Crude oil sure developed a nice H&S pattern and if it fails and oil goes higher we know that the bullish trend might be real, at least for another leg up.
There are so much hype and BS regarding oil that the fundamentals can change over-night depending who you listen to. Saudia Arabia with it’s planned IPO is trying to come clean with its reserves which have been kept a secret for decades. Nobody will know unless independent sources verify their claims of all this new oil they have been hiding!