Without a doubt, cotton futures have one of the most violent and choppy patterns I have ever dealt with, and it’s been doing that as far back as I have found charts for.
What I see is that cotton prices loved the upswing of the solar cycle, but cotton prices sure didn’t like the downswing of solar cycle 24. The 2011 peak in cotton prices matches the first peak of solar cycle 24 after which its price crashed and still hasn’t recovered, except for small bear market rallies.
The impending end of solar cycle 24 is drawing cotton prices down and we could end up getting another Primary degree zigzag. Our present bearish cotton wave count still needs lots of work, but a new record low should happen.
I have not had to change wave 3 in Cycle degree for any reason, which is a good thing. Since the 2001 bottom cotton produced a great looking inverted zigzag. That’s what diagonal wave structures are all about and cotton shows us one zigzag about 10 years long.
BAL which is an ETF/ETN could be used to track cotton prices and it’s just as violent as the futures charts are, so be warned.