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Category Archives: Platinum

Platinum Weekly Chart: New Record Low Update!

 

I recently posted the COT report for Platinum which was negative as the commercial hedgers switched to net short positions in 5 of the precious metals.   Palladium is making new world record highs, while platinum has been crashing to new record lows from its 2008 peak. Talk about a wild inverse picture that palladium and platinum are showing this month and its been going on for many years already.

For a few years the platinum decline had a hard time getting going, but with diagonal wave structures it can take a long time to sort out and I will still work on it. Notice how platinum has the exact same triangle pattern as gold has, except in gold they call the same move a bullish move, while the exact same pattern in platinum is confirmed that it was a bear market rally. From the March 2008 peak to the October 2008 bottom, the platinum bear market rally has been completely retraced by a margin of about $6!  I think there are still new lows to come as the remainder of this 5 wave sequence still needs to finish.

Just because it’s a small degree decline, does not mean it can’t extend, and make the 4th wave rally long and complex. Silver is the closest to making the exact same move, yet the bullish gold analysts swear up and down that gold is going to soar. Once this triangle is finishing, then I am forced to look for a 1 or even 2 degrees higher positions.

In this case, it could be wave 4 ending in Cycle degree. Another bullish phase should happen but any impending bullish rally would take a long time to show itself more clearly. This gives me the extra time to see a proper pattern develop. About the only good thing that will happen is that I no longer will be a bear towards platinum. I will not shy away from being a bear when I see metal asset classes still have more downside to go! This does not make me very popular with metal investors, especially the gold bugs!

 

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Platinum Monthly Chart: More Downside To Come?

It’s been a long time since I looked at platinum. When we go back to the 1980 peak we see what followed what looks like 5 waves down. Ok, but it can count as a flat if we see a single zigzag first, then “B” wave rally and a choppy 5 wave decline. (3-3-5)  I saw the pattern during the 90’s as a running zigzag. I’m not inventing a new pattern, but zigzags do have a habit of never being even.

Either way, that bearish phase ended in late 1998 before another rocket move soaring to the $2100 price level. From early 1985 platinum can also work as a big zigzag terminating in late 2007, which is a lot more common in diagonal wave structures.  Then the big crash of 2008 sent platinum south, stopping hard at the $800 price level again in late 2015.

This $800 price level is important because platinum has pivoted around this number 4 times already, since the 1980 peak.  If platinum gets close to the $800 again, then we are faced with a big downside breakout situation. This may not stop until platinum hits the $550-$600 price range.

Since the 1980’s peak platinum resistance produced major reversals at the $550-$600 price range, so this price has significant meaning.

At the late 2007 peak, I show a Cycle degree wave 3 top, which I used to have back at the 1980 platinum peak. I spent years with wave 3 in Cycle degree at the 1980’s peak, but this would move us into SC degree wave counts to soon. I refuse to play the big wave count game anymore, due to the bull markets they have missed.

It takes an incredible amount of time to get a wave count refined to a point we can “see” bull markets coming, but todays wave traders only use the EWP as short term trade setups!

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Platinum Crash And Bull Market Review

 

Platinum-June-20-2016

 

I haven’t looked at Platinum for some time, but with a fresh chart, I started to look for an alternate pattern.  I looked at that crazy decline and I counted it out as a “running triangle “B” wave”. When the running “E” wave finished, then the remainder 5 waves down started making sense. Platinum joined the commodities bear market in 2011, with a present bottom in January, 21, 2016.

Looking at it from the running triangle perspective, then we can look for the next idealized bullish phase that could be in progress already. This would be a “C” wave bull market, and technically this “C” wave should retrace the $1900 price level, hopefully with some room to spare. This would work out to about a 100% price gain for platinum. 

At any other time this big correction could be the start of a big 5 wave sequence, but if you get the degree wrong, I promise you, it will never work. 😛 Any rally from this point forward has to show it means business as any impulse wave structure, would send Platinum soaring.  

With this chart you can’t help but be bullish, in the longer term, but we have to be on watch for a single zigzag pattern that could end early. Since any “C” wave could be a diagonal, then the wave counts would change dramatically.  We need a Minor degree wave 1 which may not be completed as wave 1 in Minuette degree may be finished or has already finished. 

 

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