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Category Archives: Palladium

Impending Palladium Crash 1980-2018 Elliott Wave Update!

I ask you is this palladium pattern something you should invest in or trade up and down with futures trading. I have to check for the ETF to see if there is one to sell short on. The daily chart has also produced the Death Cross with another well below us on this chart. To be long (bullish position) at the top of this pattern is financial suicide as far as I’m concerned. Since the 1980’s this entire bull market just kept on going, and going, and going, until a little while ago as it seems to have turned a corner already.

How does a $600 Palladium crash work in your investment world?

Pure and simple folks, all commodities “must” be counted from a diagoanl perspective, otherwise what I say makes no sense, and your trades will suffer from performance issues.

When we only go long we are only running at 50% efficiency, so that can be massivly improved by knowing  how to go “short” and “long” when the opportunity arises.

All commodaties run as connecting zigzags, and I feel more and more comfortable in seeing them and counting them out. Like I said I have the largest collection of diagonal wave sructures on this planet and here is another one. Every wave position must be confirmed and wave count maintained and I don’t have the time if the gold market is going to go nuts.

Always remember that the void below our present palladium prices are filled with “SELL” orders as protective stops!

 

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Palladium 1980-2018 Review

I have spent years working palladium, trying to figure what this overlapping bull market is. When we can’t figure out where we are, we sure will have problems forecasting anything. In the chart above, we’re lucky if we can see a decent impulse wave anywhere except for some Minute degree runs. I look at palladium from a diagonal wave pattern perspective, with Cycle degree wave 3 terminating at the January, 2018 peak. Time will confirm  if our present peak will hold

When Palladium crashed from the 1980 peak it crashed with a zigzag containing a long tail that is nowhere being equal in length to the “A5” wave. If a zigzag  has ended with a long “C5” wave just once, then I allow it to happen in all my wave counting at all degree levels. 1929-1932 is another prime example of a long trailing “C5” wave, so the precedent has been set.

The crash down into the 1982 bottom and the bullish phase to the 2000 peak, was also a zigzag with a stretched “C5” wave. Long trailing “C5” waves are very common, so I look for them all the time.  Now that I have talked about those nasty long “C5” waves the 2000-2009 crash was a “flat” and it even turned into a running flat as well. The crash in 2002 was also a zigzag but it was a leading “A3” wave into a flat. (3-3-5).  In a diagonal wave pattern,  the flats do appear, but they can appear in wave 2 crashes as well. As long as wave 2 and wave 4 alternates the flats and zigzags are acceptable. It is wave 1,3 and 5 that should contain zigzag wave structures and with a bit of variability it will keep the wave analyst busy trying to force a diagonal into an impulse wave structure.

Crude oil made the same diagonal rally from 1999 to 2008,  yet every expert wave analyst forced this bull market into an impulse. Palladium seems to have a good track record of horrific crashes so there is no reason why we can’t expect another palladium crash. Will palladium stop at the bottom trend line or will this trend line get sliced in two?

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Palladium Daily Chart Bull Market Review

Every trend comes to an end eventually. Palladium sure started out with a decent impulse wave structure, but that started to fall apart starting in early 2017. From then on Palladium converged in a wedge like pattern, with smaller and smaller wave structures.   The waves also started to overlap about the same time, which suggests a diagonal 5th wave, or a “C” wave bull market is in progress.

There could be more upside, but  I think a big correction is coming, and this entire bullish phase could get retraced.  The previous 4th wave of one lesser degree could take Palladium back to the $660 price range. Palladium prices may be  linked more to the economy than investing demand so if there is an economic slowdown, then Palladium prices could take a big hit.

Palladium seems to have rolled over a bit already, but this could be just a little flat.

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OMG! There Is a Palladium Shortage: 1980-2017 Review

Best Commodity in 2017 Is One of the Smallest Metals Markets – Bloomberg

This chart was made a few days ago, but it hasn’t changed that much since then. On the intraday scale, palladium has peaked at $890 but is now going sideways or what looks like a corrective move at this time.  The story goes that the experts see a palladium shortage which is the case of the price rise. They also had an oil shortage back in 2008 when oil was $147, but within 8 months oil was back in a world glut.  Can the same thing happen with palladium? 

I’m very suspicious of claims of shortages with a high priced commodity, because we would have had a palladium glut back in early 2009.  Did we hear anyone screaming about a Palladium glut when the prices were low back then? 

My big wave count with Palladium is only a quick best scenario,  as in reality it takes years of detailed Elliott Wave analysis to create a working wave pattern.   At $890 palladium has also formed a double top so that could be short term resistance.

The bullish phase that started in early 2016 has been a diagonal, with any starting impulse waves falling apart very fast. If the palladium shortage persists, then we should still see much higher palladium prices?

From the 2001 peak palladium declined in what looks like a zigzag. If the first single zigzag is real, then this crash should still be completely retraced. Obviously this hasn’t happened yet, so a new record high is not ruled out at this time.  

As I mentioned it takes years to develop a great usable wave count, and I don’t mean spending decades with some SC or GSC  quest. I mean about constantly changing the biggest degrees trying to figure out which peak is the real wave 3 peak. 

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Quick Palladium Review

 

pay00-dec-5-2016

 

Palladium, recently hit another high peak, which sure seems like the opposite of what gold has done recently.  At the recent top, and at the intraday level, it sure looks like the computer generated trades were working overtime.  

Eight spikes to the downside, all stopping at the $720 price level is too much of a coincidence, and too perfect for humans to produce. Besides, those spikes can be very bullish. At this time the 2016 rally looks more like a triangle, so I have to run it for a short period of time, to confirm or break a potential triangle.

If all we do is get a correction, then a bigger zigzag may be in progress. A bullish correction would break the bottom trend line, but it would also still travel to new record highs.   

I track about 13 or more asset classes, and all wave counts will suffer, the more I tackle by myself.  At least a correction should be due, but what type of correction will be a mystery at this time. 

 

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Palladium Daily Chart Review. Short Term Bear Trap?

 

pay00-oct-17-2016

 

Palladium has been on one wild ride, which on the surface looks like an impulse.  Looks are deceiving as there are many waves that act like a diagonal more than any impulse wave would.  It still should give us 5 waves up, but they are all counted as connecting zigzags. In the last several months or so, Pallaium did not decline with nice impulse waves, but it was a very choppy decline, which tells me that the recent decline is just a correction. 

This could also produce a very long last 5th wave, but we would have to be ready for any alternate pattern, that may still happen. 

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Palladium Daily Chart Review

 

pay00-sept-13-2016

 

Palladium looks like it could be done for, as it is starting to go deeper than any 4th wave bottom should do.  The last “C” wave to the August top was also a diagonal. Overall the 5 waves down looks more like an impulse with just one small but critical overlapping dip into the wave 2 in 2014.  If all is correct, then palladium should dip down to the $450 price level or lower.  Either way it should also be finishing a potential “C” wave bottom in Minute degree, and also finish a “B” wave in Minor degree. This then would open it up for a massive “C” wave, taking it to all time new record highs above $1000. 

The entire palladium bull market of a Primary degree 5th wave, is all a diagonal. So 5 diagonal waves in Intermediate degree, is what I would need to find a home for Cycle degree wave 3.  This is still some time ahead of us, so we have to have some patience and let this play out. 

If palladium does decline to a new low, it will also help to confirm that the 2016 commodities run was a fake, or a bear market rally.   We can also see how far this 2016 rally retraced, which is not your average 20% rally.  Imagine if this was flipped around and we had a 60-80% bull market correction. 

The majority would have the bull market ended as it would not conform to the conventional 20% retracement.  Deep corrections are normal in commodities and making normal forecast will seldom work.

At this time palladium looks good, as another diagonal decline, but we should see some nasty surprise counter rallies along the way. 

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Palladium Weekly Chart Review

 

pay00-sept-10-2016

 

I have been working on palladium for many years, but it represents a pattern that does not conform to good looking impulse waves, so I look at it from a diagonal pattern perspective.  If late 2008 was my 4th wave bottom, then the bullish phase and the subsequent correction look out of sync. It looks like a very long first wave, followed by big choppy sideways pattern between the two trend lines. 

This choppy pattern makes an extremely good fit as a triangle or as an ending diagonal. Which way I can use it will be determined if our recent little correction is going to finish, and then creates one more push to the upside. Right now I’m showing a smaller triangle inside a bigger triangle which I have never counted out or seen before. The triangle would be perfect if the resulting decline fits into a 5 wave impulse decline. 

Palladium did not reach its extreme high in 2011, but its major top was in 2014. This would be very normal for an expanded “B” wave pattern in an expanded flat. 

The start of the 2016 bull run can be a fake, but to keep any bulls trapped, it could add on one more small leg, before palladium swings back down. Right now palladium is in a small degree 4th wave triangle which also serves as a warning. I’m not convinced that palladium is in some secular bull market at this time, but that it has to finish an older bull market first.  A zigzag 5th wave would be the ultimate outcome, and the “B” wave bottom would be the end of this so called correction.  

It all depends how high this 2016 move is still going to go, but I think one more push is highly likely. It may take the rest of September to find out, but gold, silver and oil should follow as well. The 5th wave in Intermediate degree, and the 5th wave in Primary degree would  have to finish before the wave 3 in Cycle degree can find a home.  If Platimum crashes into a $400 low, then I’m sure that palladium can still soar over $1100 for a Cycle degree top.  

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Palladium Daily Chart, Potential Bull Trap Review.

 

PAY00-Sept-4-2016

 

I had more luck with calling turns in palladium than many other wave counts that I have created. This only improved after I gave up on my location of Cycle degree wave 3.  Cycle degree wave 3 is in the future, not stuck back in the 70’s, where it was for a long time. The wave count I’m showing you is one move, that has not completed, which will consist of 5 waves in Minuette degree. Getting a better wave count in palladium can change the gold outlook dramatically as well, so there is more to it than simply giving readers a mindless wave count made with a bunch of “WXY” waves.  I would have little problem in filling the palladium chart with “WXYXZ” waves, but it sure would confuse everything in the long run. The wave patterns I’m after, are the ones that will wipe out all those participants going in the very same direction.  

My Primary degree wave 3-4 has been shoved back to the 70’s, and the wave count above is part of a Minute degree “C” wave crash. Many contrarians think that the bear market was over in early 2016, as it sure was a good bear trap at that time. I changed my degree and adjusted some locations a bit better, and still, this 2016 bull market, looks like a giant bull trap. 

If we do a simple wave count starting in 2016, we have a count of 7 waves of similar physical size, and 5 smaller wave sizes as well. This could give us a wave count of 11 waves. 7 or 11 waves all mean the same thing, which is the pattern of a bear market rally. If this was just a bearish rally (fake bull market) then palladium has no choice but to crash, and it would eventually hit new record lows for 2016. It could take us another 3-5 months for this to fully play out. The question arises, “Will gold, silver, and oil keep soaring north as palladium implodes?”  I doubt it, but we need a bit more evidence to help confirm this.

It would be a waste of time trying to give you a price support level, as that would imply that we are still in a bull market. The only support we would see, will be temporary, until the bears are dominating the markets again.  So far the 5 waves are fitting a 5 wave impulse very well.  We can still run into a zigzag, or another diagonal 5th wave decline. The $540-$520 price level could give us a temporary “A” wave support, but that should also get breached if the new trend is down. 

There is one crash that I have to talk about as it is the key, if palladium will ever go higher again. I’m sure it will but this may not happen until palladium falls below $450 or lower. This one big crash happened from the January 2001 peak of $1090 down to the 2003 bottom low of $145. This was a $945 crash, but which contained a single zigzag. This is part of a correction, and eventually that entire crash will get completely retraced.

This would mean that from the next record low of $450 or so, palladium would soar to well over $1090 again. This is the power of forecasting with the EWP, but it  will never work if we have no clue about where we really are.  I never had the confidence to say this about any corrective crash, but after 2013 my confidence in giving bear market retracement numbers increased.  Bear markets are just corrections in a bigger bull market or the finishing, of an older bull market.

Calling an end to a bull market early, will not sit well with many contrarians, but it should not take all that long to confirm.  When do we give up on the bull run, when it retraces, 20, 40, 50, 60, 80, or 110%?  

As it stands and if I’m completely wrong, then this pattern would have to dramatically extend as another complete set of 5 waves would have to materialize soon. Only time will help to clarify this situation. 

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Palladium Daily Chart Review

 

PAY00-Aug-17-2016

 

Palladium has also enjoyed a very bullish move, and many may think that this has been, the start of a secular run. I don’t think so, as at best it may be finishing of an old bull market run. Yes, I will have to adjust if any decline starts to look like a corrective decline.  In any bullish correction Palladium should find a bottom, with a worst case scenario correcting down to the $540 price level. 

In a true bear market rally, Palladium would have to eventually make a complete retracement, below $450. Complete retracements confirms that a bullish run was actually a bear market rally.  This will take time to play out, but even if Palladium does not retrace itself this time, then I am sure it will do it when a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom arrives.   This 4th wave peak just kissed the price territory of wave 1, so this can push the Palladium move into a diagonal classification. 

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Palladium Intraday Bull Market Review

 

PAY00-July-14-2016

 

Palladium has also been on a rip roaring bull market, in 2016. This is good, but we always have to be on the look out for a fake move. So far Palladium has acted out what looks like a real good Impulse5 wave, but the May rally, is looking like the start of a diagonal. This suggests a bigger zigzag is at play here so we will see how far above my top trend this will go.  Palladium is now bumping up to my invisible declining top trend line, so if the power is there, it should push through this resistance and keep going. 

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