Gold Daily Chart Update.

Talk about gold moving at a snail’s pace we have been witnessing it for the last couple of months. The only thing that can happen to get the analysts excited is some unexpected 200-day MA death cross, which should be pretty easy to spot by the keen observer.

It would take a minimum of a $100 gold price drop to cut the 200-day MA (Bottom Line)

My updates will be erratic at best as I have other pressing issues I can’t avoid.

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Gold Daily Chart: Going Nowhere

There is not much to report with gold as it seems to be stuck in limbo right now, even though the US dollar has gone on a downward slide.

Gold would have to slide a minimum of $120 just to get close to that 200 day MA.

I will try and update the SP500 and the DOW but they haven’t moved much from record highs as well.

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Gold Daily Chart Bearish Trend Continues

I’m going to keep it simple, counting down from the September highs. It’s a diagonal wave so chances are good another diagonal wave decline is going to happen.

Below and old price of $1375 would be nice but that could be a short term illusion.  In the long run, gold could hit a major double bottom at $1050 and what will be important if a zigzag has formed.

The potential to completely retrace the entire zigzag is too great to ignore. It could still be a year or more away so patience is the key.

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Gold Weekly Chart Review

One of my previous gold and silver chart update I still had it as a “B” wave top. With this wave count, I switched back to a 4th diagonal 4th wave rally.  The 4th wave dipped into wave 1 in Intermediate degree, but silver was far from it which makes it fit far better as a 4th wave still in effect.

Does gold have to crash below $1050? Not really but it sure can produce a wild double bottom. Either way, another zigzag could form but it could be an ugly one.

This 4th wave pushes time of the “A” wave in Primary degree into the future a few years, and we could expect a great bear market rally ride during solar cycle $25.

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Gold Daily Chart Update

It took a little while but I think a wave 1-2 has completed and from this point, forward price support at $1480 will no longer work.

I may have changed my starting degree by one but that can be done later.  For the big picture, I need a zigzag in Intermediate degree which means my small starting degree could be Minor degree.

 

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Gold Friday, 13, 2019 Intraday Crash Update

 

So far gold is still on its way heading south with more to come. The US dollar has also made some bearish gyrations but so far gold has ignored the USD.

Stocks could head south and gold can do the same thing. What gold needs to show us is a clear correction well before $1380 as this has price support of a previous 4th wave. This correction must hold with gold soaring again to new record highs, that will kill my bearish wave count.

There are no daily limits in all commodities so gold crashes it can make dramatic moves that some investors do not understand.  I like that about gold and silver because bearish moves happen faster than bullish moves do.

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Gold Weekly Chart 2011-2019 Bear Market Review.

Well, folks, in the last week I printed out many charts like this and switch back and forth to line type settings.

The gold rally ended Sept, 5 at $1555. Is $1555 going to hold for the high of the year, will gold still soar like many of the talking heads say it will.

At the gold peak, many aggressive gold forecasts were made, just like they have done many times before.

I think gold is fooling us with its bullish pattern while silver showed us it couldn’t care less. By making the 2011 decline into diagonal decline, makes the 2015 bottom only a wave 3 in Intermediate degree.

Readers know I have done this before and a switch works best at the turning of a month.

Gold needs to show us another zigzag decline in Minor degree which could take more than a year and it moves the Primary degree “A” wave into the future as well.

Dropping the gold bear market down by just one degree sends the Primary degree “A” wave back into inventory. Gone by the stroke of a pen.

There is no price support here because I question support for what? Just because gold had a very bullish run does not mean a true bull market is in play or has started!

I’m sure the day will come when gold crashes below $1400 again, but any move now has to show us that a zigzag 5th wave in Minor degree is going to start.

We have had about 8 strong bullish rallies since the 2011 peak and most of them failed and when it wants to gold’s price could drop $50-$100 at a time.

I can make the silver wave count work better as a 4th wave decline, so silver may end up giving us an early clue when the “New” “A” wave in Primary degree appears.

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Gold/GDX: The Bearish Picture, 2015-2019 Review

Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI

Mark Hulbert makes a very strong bearish case with his sentiment readings. I pay attention to that, as wave counts come to an end when sentiment is very bullish or bearish.

When the mainstream analysts start forecasting crazy bullish gold forecasts like $3000 gold or higher, then who is left to come in?

Below is the simple chart version of the commercials being net short, while the speculators have a huge long position. The last 5 speculators bars also has a flat top, which shows they are not that enthusiastic to take on more bullish positions.

The speculators are the emotional players and they will be the first to sell gold when this gold bull market turns out to be a dud!

While gold was still in a rally, the commercials added to their bearish positions, but the speculators added to their already massive long side. Both parties can’t be right as they contradict each other.

Last week spikes were starting to form, which are sell signals from my perspective.  I think gold is fooling us, as no other gold-related asset class like GDX could keep up to the metal.

If the Primary degree “B” wave top is in, then investors will suffer serious losses if the stay. Gold has already crashed $50 last week, which could be the start of a very bearish run.

When we look at GDX, we can see that it’s being left in the dust when comparing it to gold. We have resistance going back to the 2013 peaks, with an open gap just barely getting closed off.

Draw another line from the 2016 peak to our present 2019 peak, we can see a massive H&S. In a very bullish market, the right shoulder will just correct, and then break out again, but no such pattern will happen if a bigger bearish move is already in progress.

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Quick Gold Weekly Chart Review

At $1550 gold is running into resistance but how much resistance remains to be seen.  At the small intraday scale, gold seems to be correcting which means gold still has room to move up, at least in the short term.

Since the 2015 bottom gold has now moved $500 and is about $370 away from breaking a new record high. ($1920)

Silver has also gone vertical so a correction is due in silver as well.  I’m looking for a wave 3-4 to develop in Minor degree and no amount of little wave counting will make it come any sooner.

Even the two trend lines are suspect as they can be very subjective. At $1800 gold would see resistance increase and I would like to see that 4th wave come and go!

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DOW E-Mini Intraday Sideways Action Update

After a month of sideways movement, the E-Mini is back at the resistance of about 26,400 with a quadruple top.  A huge breakout to the upside would kill this wave count off pretty quick, as we also have possible double zigzag.

The short version is that during the month of August, wave 3-4 may just be finishing.  We wouldn’t know that until the August price support crumbles and the majority of analysts start to freak out.

At this scale, the moving averages bounce around a lot so they are not that reliable as they criss-cross each other.

The new moon is this Friday and we are on the last days of the month so that combination can always raise a bit of stock market turmoil.

My last Gold/Dow ratio recorded was July, 11  at 19.3 with today recording a ratio of 17.  The DOW got cheaper but not by all that much.  A ratio of 8:1 is dirt cheap but that will need constant checking when we think we are getting close.

Gold is acting a bit bearish today so a correction could be just around the corner.

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Gold Intraday Correction Update

Some investors may be unloading gold inventory which was bound to happen after a vertical move.  The question is how deep can gold go? Below $1485 would be nice but I’ll be open to a deeper plunge if need be.

Any correction means another leg up in the gold price is still to come.  I’m looking for diagonal connections, as the mainstream media was all charged up for $1600 gold.  We sure don’t want to disappoint them if gold crashed to $1400!

Silver is also taking a hit but it has a lot of catching up to do and is lagging behind gold like it has done many times before.

Some analysts are already calling for $2200 gold but they have been doing that since the 1970s.

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Gold Intraday Crash Update: Fast And Furious!

The bottom fell out of the gold price with a near-vertical drop that also left an open gap in its wake.  Sudden drops like this happen as there are “No” daily trading limits in commodities.

The only question is how deep gold can still go as downward spikes like this can be a very bullish sign. Stocks/Oil exploded, but the gold and silver price headed south.

There should still be more upside, as the pattern so far, does not suggest a long gold price decline. Besides that, the $1600 price range is a much better resistance level than $1535 is.

The full moon is just a few days away so that can act as a reversal time period. Gold already recovered about $10 so that is also a good sign.  I see it as a warning that later on when stocks start a real bull market that gold will decline as stocks supply the real competition for gold-related assets.

The 2011 gold peak is a prime example of what can happen.

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Gold 2015-2019 Review

Originally the 2015 bottom was wave 3 in Intermediate degree but that started to take far to long, so I looked for a higher degree position.

I have been using the (A) wave bottom for 3-4 months and at this time don’t see any reason to change it.

At this time the present bullish phase is what I call a “C” wave bull market, which still has a long way to go. Diagonal wave structures can develop at any time, and I still need to see some sort of Minor degree wave 3-4-5 structure to play out.

EWI (Elliott Wave International) has the same bottom for December 2015 as I do so they are bullish as well.

Yes, we should get corrections as nothing travels in a straight line for very long. The last thing I want to do is turn bearish on gold too early!

Gold was well above $1500 at one point and I’m sure $1600 is within reach this year.  August 15, 2019, will be the next full moon which can trigger surprise reversals.

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Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Phase Update

Gold investors are jumping on the gold bandwagon as they think it will protect them from the savage stock market gyrations.  Short term it will work but long term investors know that gold can reverse with little warning.  I think there is more upside as a 5 wave sequence in Minor degree seems to have started.

Many may think that the gold bottom of late 2015 ($1050)  is a major bottom but in Primary degree.  We are not in a Cycle degree bullish phase so eventually, I will turn very bearish.

I have seen some EWI gold wave counts a few months back and we have the same “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.

This is very rare but they have a huge following reading their newsletters and when EWI turns bearish all of their subscribers will know it.

I’m still very bullish on gold and it may last all year or until stocks have crashed significantly.  For now, this gold bullish phase should continue, so enjoy it as all trends eventually come to an end.

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Gold Intraday Gyrations Review.

This is the August Gold contract as the cash chart has too many erroneous spikes at this time.  Prices will be a bit different as this gold market is still advancing. I don’t want to see new record lows in gold but a deep plunge can also happen before gold starts to crank up again.

Commercials are close to having record net short positions but it’s the speculators that can panic sell at the drop of a dime. This Fridays COT report may tell us more.  There is a good chance that the “C” wave bull market is alive but we need more evidence to support it with the development of wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree.  Once gold soars to about $1500 + then I’m sure the gold bulls will be jumping up and down with joy.  When they all agree that gold is bullish then gold can crash and wipe the smiles off anyone that buys when prices go vertical.

In the long run, I’m working gold as a big bear market rally so very choppy waves in a bull market are very normal.

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Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Review

My focus is always to link all Cycle degree connections first which I work with 3-degree levels below and 3-degree levels above Cycle degree.

I believe the 2011 peak is a Cycle degree peak and what followed was a bear market decline, ending in 2015 with 3-degree levels. I had 2015 low as a wave 3 bottom but It took far too long to play out, so 2015 becomes the “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.

Higher lows are clearly visible with the “B” wave in Intermediate degree (Red), stopping the gold crash in its tracks, August 2018. ($1160) I bet not too many people remember any fundamental logic about why gold started to soar.

With any wave position its always a reminder so we can never forget where the wave count started from.

I believe a “C” wave bull market is in progress and we still need waves 3-4 and 5 to show themselves in Minor degree.

I will not post every single little wave count as they become irrelevant due to the fact that it’s impossible to find our mistakes. If we just use 3-degree levels and count out 50 positions, then you have a minimum of 150 wave positions that could all be wrong!

In the long run, I see this as a bear market rally and there should be more upside to come.

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Here is An Interesting Wave Count On Gold From Elliott Wave International.

https://elliottwave.com/Metals/The-Pattern-That-Anticipated-4-1-2-Years-of-the-Trend-and-the-Turns-in-Gold

 

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Gold Intraday Bullish Update

Once I saw gold maintain a corrective type of a move I knew that any bearish scenario would have to be put into the deep freeze for now.

There are three spikes that show but you can ignore them as they don’t show up in Line type settings.

Many contrarians have been calling for a higher gold price and I’m sure the gold wave counters have cranked up their bullish wave counts as well.

The above wave count is about as bullish as I can show you, as this may be part of another zigzag bull run.  This wave count can also be a wave 3-4,  but I like to work with only one option at a time.

Yes, the commercials are net short and it will get worse if the gold price keeps rising.

Regardless what your long term gold price forecast is the entire wave counting community has to decide if this 3.5-year bullish phase is just a big bear market rally?

In the near term and if gold has the legs, then $1600 could be the next price target.

What nobody talks about is that the price of gold is soaring while solar cycle 24 is still crashing!  This is not a good long term picture as the gold price could be repealed down, by the start of solar cycle 25.

It’s still a year or so before solar cycle 25 starts, even though the first official sunspot of solar cycle 25 has already arrived.

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Gold Resistance at $1800?

I changed my wave positions and basically, I’m now looking for a 3-3-5 wave count and if the (A) bottom is real,  then another leg up would certainly happen.

I will only run one wave count in a chart with no other alternates as otherwise, it’s impossible to find our mistakes. Majority of my wave counts are drawn on a printout first, so you don’t want to carry the same mistake to a new chart!

We may still get some corrective action but if this bullish phase is not finished then the gold bulls will shred the early gold bears again.

The big question is if this is just part of a bear rally or the start of a new true bull market!? A “C” wave bullish phase is what we could be looking at and it may last out the summer.

Wide open spaces to $1600 but then $1800 is going to give gold some very stiff resistance.

 

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Gold 2011-2019 Review

Mindless wave counting is not what I like to do, so seeing the gold COT report for the first time can be unsettling. Above, the commercials are in a net short position that we haven’t seen since mid-2018. These are bearish signals that very few people read or even consider to be important.

The large speculators have taken the opposite side which is aligned with the majority bullish consensus. Folks, both groups can’t be right at the same time and history has been on the side of the commercial hedgers.

The media always talk about the large speculators who they think are the smart hedge funds. Speculators are the emotional trend chasers and they consistently paint themselves into a corner, where they become trapped.

When the market moves against the speculators you can bet they will run or dump their long positions as fast as they can.

I have another gold COT chart that came from the May 2016 gold peak when commercials were also in a massive short position. Gold also crashed at that time, after which it started a sideways bearish phase.

I still have too many alternates, and I will not post or show alternate wave counts on one chart.  All my wave counts are saved on my hard drive for every month and not having many alternates on one chart saves me time in finding any mistakes.

The majority of wave analysts count out hundreds of micro mini wave counts and I always wondered how do they find their mistakes?

The above gold chart could give us a correction down to the bottom trend line after which gold would crank up again as another zigzag.

We also see this weekly chart where gold is far above both moving average lines and many times gold crashed below both averages before a new bullish phase started back up. It would take little for gold to decline and before we know it, gold has created a death cross on the weekly charts.

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The Golden Asteroid!

Recently a story has been going around that talks about Asteroid mining which contain massive amounts of precious metals .

The Golden Asteroid That Could Make Everyone On Earth A Billionaire

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Gold Intraday Update!

I’m at the 5 min scale which is about as small as I can go. This is starting to look like an inverted zigzag which could be a wave 1-2.  In other words, gold can’t blast to new record highs. At this scale, it will not take long because the action is much faster so it should only take a few days for this to produce a newer low.

I posted a group of futures contracts that took gold to December 2024, producing a $123 spread higher than the cash price. This is a huge spread and I checked again today and the spread has already compressed to $104. This spread should keep compressing once any decline in the gold price gets serious.

The experts say that as long as gold stays above $1400 it remains bullish but below that gold will be bearish. Good luck with that!

With cash oil and the December 2021 contract, oil is about $4-$5 lower than the cash price.  This is very bearish for oil.

With gold, I will check the spread more often as I would expect it to keep compressing.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Update

Last night gold pushed to $1411 after which it started to back off.  Short term, golds rally may add another leg up but I think that a correction is due

The entire gold bullish phase that started back in late 2015, from the $1050 price level, will soon be 3 1/2 years old.

3 1/2 years for an Intermediate degree move is stretching it so moving everything up by one degree is an option. In other words, we could be in a Primary degree “B” move that is just another big bear market rally.

At a minimum, another correction is due which could send gold back down to the $1260 price level. The $1260 price range would only be a small correction but if a much bigger corrective move is coming then the $1260 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding.

Any gold run below $1160 would confirm that the 5 waves just completing was just part of another fancy bear market rally.

I personally would not be caught dead being long in gold when a vertical move is completing, but the rest of the world is super bullish in gold.

To show how bullish they are I took a screen clip of all the gold contracts going out to December 2024 where gold was already pushing $1511. Any bear attack will certainly change all the above contracts, and with a $100 spread the wave patterns that far out, are radically different.

Sure gold has had a nice run but big bear market rallies can fool us all the time. Gold bulls are smiling as they see this breakout as the beginning, not the end!  Since 2011 gold has had many false bullish moves so what’s the difference this time?

It’s all about the fundamental news but yet nobody can remember these fundamentals a few months later. At least with wave positions, we have a much bigger and longer time horizon.  All the wave counting in the world matters little if we have no clue what degree level that the 2011 peak is.

My gold wave counts need more time until the public lays all its fears on the front pages.

I had a bet going that gold would not see $1400 or higher and yet it did just that, last night. 10 ounces of silver was on the line so I must deliver the 10-ounce silver coin today!

 

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Gold Daily Chart: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

Since the August 2018 bottom has now charged up getting very close to the $1400 price level.  By the end of the day, gold may breach the $1400 price level.

I have a horizontal line at the $1375 price level which I see as being very special.  The main reason why $1375 is special because it’s a 1.618 ratio from the 1980 gold peak of $850.

The majority of gold bugs are jumping for joy as gold is finally breaking out!

The problem with any bullish run is that when a small majority thinks it’s a bull market break-out it can also be the end of a bigger bear market rally.

The commercial hedgers don’t see a bull market as they have a large net short positions in gold at this time.  If the majority are just waking up to the present bullish phase, they are pretty late already.  A bullish vertical move is never a sign to jump in because they always run out of steam most of the time.

Many believe that the 2011 peak was some ordinary peak so they are just looking for a gold market correction.  2011 is my wave 3 in Cycle degree and I have not been forced to change it just yet!  There is no way that a Cycle degree correction has already completed, so gold could turn south with little effort.

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Gold Intraday Chart And Impending Death Cross!

My last gold post got 323 page views within the first 24 hours after being posted, which has broken many records that have only been beaten  3-4 times before.

At this time the intraday chart moving averages show a potential death cross can happen if gold’s recent spike is a bigger event than expected.

Crossings happen more frequently at this intraday scale but it will take more time for gold to show us a new direction.

In order for the death cross to happen the gold price needs to crash a bit further but knowledge about any crossings is pretty useless if we don’t understand the “Lag Time” involved.

The small Minuette degree wave 2 may already be completed so hopefully gold will confirm it very soon.

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Quick Gold Daily Chart Update

Once I looked at what the commercial hedgers did last week I had to post something.  Last week the commercials added some of the most bearish positions in gold that I have seen.

Sure gold can go higher as the speculators are the true trend chaser!

This record goes back to June 2018 with a huge commercial short position and speculators having a huge long position. It’s impossible for both groups to be right at the same time.

From my experience, it’s the speculators that are the trend chasers and usually the first people to panic when they find out that they are wrong. All it takes is one group to see the set-up at the same time. A large group or a small group matters little as small panics happen all the time.

One strong drop in the gold price can send the speculators into sheer panic as they try and squirm their way out of a bull trap.

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Gold Weekly Chart Review

For the last 3 1/2 years, gold has been in a sideways pattern and is now approaching the upper part of this range, $1360-$1375.  At $1400 gold’s breakout would be pretty obvious and I’m sure the gold bulls will be cheering.

This weekly chart 2019 death cross,  has been avoided for now but I’m sure that the death cross will happen.

At $1050 or lower gold would confirm that for the last 3-4 years, the gold price has just been in a big bear market rally.

Trying to hunt for an Intermediate degree wave 3-4 is now over 3 years old and compared to other Intermediate degree corrections since 2011, this is getting a bit too long.

Jumping up by one degree definitely cures the time problem but we still have a location problem. Gold is acting this bullish but silver is still far behind. If the surge in the gold price is fear based, then the gold bulls could get worn out and run and hide.

Many may think that the $1050 price level is some miracle support price but nobody knows what that 2016 bottom really is. When the 2011 peak hit I think it was a Cycle degree top and frankly there is little chance that a Cycle degree 4th wave has already completed at this point in time.

At a minimum gold would have to dip into the 1980 price peak of $850 before any major new bull market will occur. All commodities run under diagonal idealized patterns, which means there are always many zigzags that connect together. With gold, the 5 waves ending in 2011 was a Primary degree “C” wave run.

With the impending bottom of solar cycle 24, anything can still happen to the gold price.

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Gold Bullish Phase Impending Correction

For the last month or so cash gold produced about 7 wild spikes to the upside, which readers can all ignore. Anomalies like this do happen in futures forcing me to double check by the switch to line mode to see if the spike is real.

As wild as this bullish phase has been it’s pretty normal for diagonal wave structures. The 5th wave is another zigzag with one 5th wave being part of a “C” wave bullish phase.

The May/June zigzag is not even close to having an even “C” wave but I look for zigzags anyways. I allow much more extreme zigzag lengths like in 1930-1932 stock market decline. When a market dishes out a long “C” wave then I allow it and incorporate it into my version of the EWP.

The Gold price can crash again as this potential 4th wave correction has not finished.

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Gold Daily Chart: Time For A Correction?

Gold started out June with a price jump that can get the gold bulls all excited. Ok, I’ll bite as the last 3 months sure can work as a diagonal 4th wave flat.

The H&S could also be very bullish but before this happens, gold may have to crash back down to $1260-$1250, and then crank back up again.

On the other hand, gold can fall like a rock but then we know that the gold bulls are not as committed as the media makes them out to be.

Gold moves that are made with “Fear” hardly ever last that long so we still could see some wild action in both directions.

The one thing that some people might not expect is that a diagonal 4th wave can dip down into wave 2 which would be closer to $1200 gold.

 

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Gold Intraday Wild Ride To The Stars!

Since the last part of April and all of May gold showed 3 higher lows before soaring to $1318. I think a correction is due but this could also be another false start to nowhere after which gold can crash very deep.

This has happened so many times that I care to count, but I also know these wild and choppy moves are part of what makes commodities rather exciting at times.

Of course, if you missed this run then welcome to the club. All the spikes you see you can ignore them, except our present spike, which is the real deal! This blast is part of a “C” wave which if I’m right, will get completely retraced.

These wild moves also change the Gold/Oil ratio but the ratio has remained close to 24:1.

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