Gold Monthly Chart 1980-2019 Elliott Wave Count Review

It’s always a good idea to go back in chart history to do a complete review. All my Supercycle and Grand Supercycle wave counts I used to have no longer were making sense, so my degree levels eventually ended up at a Cycle degree.

Three-degree levels above and three-degree levels below Cycle degree is what I’m chasing.  All the Minor degree wave positions have not been filled out. They will not make any senses anyway if any Intermediate and Primary degree positions don’t make sense.

Basically, what it means we have to connect all the “Cycle Degree Dots” first before we can ever advance into the next higher degree.

I generally don’t like to use trend lines very often as I think they are very subjective.  The bottom trend line is based on the angle of the top trend line. The bottom trend line is pointing to the $500 price range.

Just so gold investors don’t freak out thinking I’m forecasting $500 gold, you can look ahead with the top trend line and it could be pointing to $3000 gold.

The top gold wave count ended on a very good 5 wave impulse move, blowing its top in 1980 at $850. Every wave analyst on the planet had some degree of a wave 3 top for 1980.  Even before I fully realized that commodities run as giant diagonals I started to apply it to gold.

From 1980 to the 2011 peak all we had was a zigzag. A fricken zigzag lasting 31 years and still only a Primary degree move. A bear market in gold lasting about 20 years was the result of the 1980 gold mania peak.

If we jump to the 1999-2000 gold bottom, gold was considered junk as it seemed that the entire world was trying to dump gold. Then a miracle happened and gold started to rally and never stopped for a good 10-year run.

I use the 30-year cycles in gold from 1920, 1950, 1980, 2011 with 2041 being the next 30-year cycle top. (SC Wave 3)

In late 2011, the gold price started to tumble and most of the wave analysts were looking for the bull market to come back. All the wave counting in the world will not help us if we have no clue what the 2011 peak really was.

It was another gold mania even more insane than 1980,  as $5,000-$10,000 gold forecasts were pretty normal.  Back at the 1980 peak, the gold price forecasts were $2000 or more. The only thing that has changed is the price of the forecasts.

If you believe that the 2011 peak is a wave 3 peak in Cycle degree,  then we can pick out 3 types of corrections that we can have. It’s pretty common Elliott Wave knowledge, that markets can fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. The 1980-2000 bear market is not the 4th wave! It’s a “B” wave but they can act much like a 4th wave as well.

I think our present gold market is still in a bearish funk, but it could take a few years for us to see a better picture. The decline of solar cycle 24 is drawing gold prices like a magnet, but gold prices could also get repelled back up with the power of solar cycle 25 behind it. Sure we’ve had a long bearish phase already but history shows us that longer ones can happen.

 

Have a Great Easter!

 

 

Hits: 2

Gold Daily Chart Bearish Update!

Looking at gold from a daily chart perspective can give us an alternate opinion, especially if we are looking at a potential Head&Shoulder pattern.  I just labeled the “Head” while the right shoulder is still declining.

If this picture in gold is really a bullish pattern then, the right shoulder would have to blast much higher and not stop!  Of course, if the 5 wave sequence is close to reality then this decline will keep right on going taking out the $1160 price level.

Gold has a track record of crashing $$180-$200 in any bullish or bearish situation so any price below $1150 would certainly qualify.

The 200-day MA is down at the $1250 price level, but gold would have to travel much further before the death cross on this daily chart happens.

The death cross is much closer in the weekly and monthly charts than it is on this daily chart.

The commercial hedgers are in a very bearish funk as this is a strong net short position. With these numbers, it’s pretty hard for gold to soar to the moon again.  This Friday is a full moon so short term, gold could turn bullish.

When gold soars due to safe-haven buying,  then these moves never last very long as it’s all based on the emotion of “Fear”.

Silver and gold can and do move together, but they do so under different patterns.  In short, the overall bullish pattern in gold is painting us a false scenario, which silver and gold stock ETFs do not confirm.  Just because an asset class goes up does not mean it’s in a real bull market. Bear market rallies can last for years before they implode again.

Hits: 0

Gold Intraday Slump Review

I was hoping for a counter-rally move and we finally got one this morning.  Gold peaked last night at $1310 and then proceeded to implode. In order for the April bullish move to remain bullish, gold has to form a very corrective looking pattern before it retraces 100% or more.

The gold price slumping below $1281 would confirm that this April rally was just another bear market rally.  Time is the unknown factor as any move can be fast or slow.  If gold breaks out to a new low it might take until the end of April for this to happen but otherwise, we are at the mercy of the emotional crowd.

Running in and out of gold assets for safe-haven reasons hardly ever lasts very long as those are emotional moves, not logic moves.

Gold also ran into the 50-day MA line at the $1306 price level after which it turned and headed south.  The 200-day MA is at the $1250 price level which is a big drop, with no guarantee that it will get there.

Hits: 1

Gold Intraday Update

Once I looked at the commercial hedger’s positions, there was no doubt in my mind that they are in a bearish mood.

I will add the gold COT report later. They were also just as bearish in silver so I can’t see gold or silver soaring to new record highs just yet. Most of these metals or futures contracts have no daily limit and gold/silver are two more. It is also one of the main reasons why these no limit contracts can free fall.

The death cross on the weekly charts is below us at the $1250 price level, and the $1160 price level will confirm this wild gold move mostly as a bear market rally.

Commercial hedgers removed 25,503 long positions and also added 10,272 to their short side. Combine them together and that is a substantial bearish move. Chasing a bullish wave count under these conditions is futile at best.

 

Hits: 3

Gold Intraday Gyrations Update.

You can blame gold’s gyrations on Turkey, if you like.  It sure seemed like the US dollar and the Euro benefited from the lira turmoil.

We did have a bullish phase in March, with only a few days left to go. Watch out for fake April Fool’s news, as the pranksters just love putting out fake news.

Today the media is easily manipulated, more than it ever has in history, and it’s only going to get worse.

The March rally started as a good impulse, but then it fell apart after the “A” wave peak in Subminuette degree. Gold is sitting on the bottom trend line and if the Golden Bears are in control, then this bullish support line will never hold.

If gold slices through the psychological $1300 price level with ease, then that would also help make my bearish case.  $1294 might give us 50%-60% retracement support, then again a very bearish gold price will not care about any support.

Where is the death cross?  I looked at the daily chart and then switched to the weekly chart and at about the $1240 price level gold would have to find support at the 200-day MA line. Even the golden crossings happened at about the same price level, so it will be very interesting when it gets closer. The 200-day MA is only $50-$60 below us and a crash this small is a walk in the park for gold.

 

Hits: 4

Gold Daily Chart Update

I’ve made some adjustments to the wave count at this time.  The big question is, “Is this rally a Bear Rally”?  I like to think it is but only time can answer that question.  A Gold crash below $1160 would give us an answer.

First gold has to show us what the $1200 price level will do, as even numbers seemed to be a crowd psychology thing.  Crossing the $1200 price level could get the gold bulls very worried and a new rush of protective sell stops could get triggered.

At the $1350 price level another right shoulder will form and if there still is a big bullish gold price move, then the right shoulder will not hold.  In the last few years, we’ve had a few H&S patterns and they all have pushed gold prices back down.  Last week commercials made some bullish moves but they are still net short by a wide margin.

In little over 5 months, gold moved up $175, but they are forgetting that gold has an ugly history of crashing $100-$200 as well.

If investors are running to gold for a safe-haven to hide in, then that’s an emotional move, not a logical move.

Gold has also come to a screeching halt as it bounces around the 50-day MA line. Gold is still under the influence of a golden cross and gold would have to crash through the $1240 price level for us to witness a new death cross.

On a weekly chart, the new death cross is only about $20 apart!

 

Hits: 7

Gold: Weekly Chart Impending Death Cross Review

I look at two sets of COT reports and this chart shows that the commercial hedgers have a very bearish outlook. Of course, the speculators are doing the exact opposite as they are chasing the gold bull market that many believe we are in.   When I see such a bearish position as the COT report above I’m not going to spend my time looking for a bull market, that may never come.

Between the silver chart and this gold weekly chart, we can see a huge difference.  Since the 2016 July, peak gold has a very bullish slant so wave analysts will show a bullish wave count, most of the time.  Silver and the majority of gold stock related ETFs do not confirm gold’s pattern as most of them are pointing down, not up like gold.

At present we have 3 major gold prices that if cross will make or break another bull gold market myth.  $1160, $1120 and $1050 will all be critical price levels, besides $1200 being a psychological number as well.  For now, gold is still under the control of a Golden Cross but will be set to change if gold keeps crashing.

With a monthly chart, the 200-day MA is down at the $1000 price level, while on a daily chart the 200-day MA is at $1240.

No wave count is written in stone but when the bullish leg that started in August 2018 retraces about $96 we could be ready for a reversal. We could get a 60-70% retracement as well but we better see a stunning correction like pattern when it completes.

Any price below that $1160 bottom will confirm that at least one leg of it was just a bear market rally.  Bullish and bearish moves can last for an entire month with March being a very popular turning month. It’s a seasonal thing as well, as people become more active in March when we start to get out of the deep freeze we’ve had this year.

Hits: 24

Gold Weekly Chart Review

Bull market or bear rally is the million dollar question?  What the majority do call a bull market, can be just a big bear market rally from an EWP point of view.  Since the 2011 peak we’ve had more bear rallies than we can count, well we can count them if we have nothing better to do. Many were Minor degree moves with one Intermediate degree bull move that all have failed.

I was fooled as well but slowly succumbed to the bears as counter rallies were always completely retraced.  Sure, at times the price is important but the pattern is far more important. If we look back to the 2015 low ($1050), gold has been in a bullish phase since then and is now a little over 3 years long in duration.  Since the 2015 bottom, we’ve had two higher lows which is a conventional way of calling a bull market.

Each of the three bullish phases topped out and was followed by a crash and recovery. We ended up with three peaks that have to produce some serious resistance, with the third peak reaching $1346 before gold started to correct again.  We would need this gold run to continue past the $1400 price, and once that happens you will hear the world screaming, “Upside Breakout”.

Since the 2016 top, we now have two sets of Head&Shoulder patterns already formed. Are they bullish H&S patterns or bearish patterns? We also have a wedge that has formed, so any new direction is not all that clear at this time. Gold has 3 major support prices that would have to hold if a true bullish phase is still in progress, but if gold has been in a 3-year bear rally, then all three price supports will get completely retraced. The three support prices would be $1160, $1120 and the last one would be $1050?

Gold has also been in a rally right along with stocks, so gold could also crash right along with the stock markets. When fear strikes logic thinking is thrown out the window and all those little emotional “Algorithms” will panic, selling out before bullish investors lose money.  Sell stops are piled up below present prices, and you don’t need a smart “Algorithm” to trigger them.

AI trading is also becoming a major factor and I see it more of a bad thing than a good thing.

I would be far more bullish if the commercial traders were in a net long position, but the sad fact is that they are not!

 

 

Hits: 21

Gold Intraday Bearish Update

In February gold has slipped back into a bearish mood now approaching the $1300 price level. $1300 is what I call a psychological price as the media picks up its commentary when this price level is getting close.  The other psychological price level is $1200. The gold analysts will go nuts if gold ever approaches $1200 again.  The question remains? Is gold in a bigger bullish phase, or was the move from $1160 just a big bear market rally?   Since the 2011 peak gold has made many bear market rallies where the majority were fooled into believing the return of the bull market.

I’m keeping my degree levels small at this time as small degree levels get trashed pretty quick, as it’s all about the process of elimination.

I would turn very bullish on gold if gold produced a big impressive spike to the downside, but gold must also display a huge zigzag or even a flat type of a crash.  It’s the end of “C” waves that do produce the huge spikes.

It looks like a nice run of 5 is starting so now its just a matter of time if another run of 5 completes. Sounds like playing cards when I talk about a run of 5, and it is. I used to play Big Bertha a lot where we always need to build runs. Even corrective waves come in runs of 5, like W, X, Y, X, Z.

Any drop in the gold price,  say from $1300 to $1200 is just, “Childs-play”, as gold can move very violently when it wants to. I also read that January gold runs don’t last all that long and even summers can be pretty boring for gold. When gold makes a run out of fear, “Safe-haven buyers rushing in”, then they can “Rush out” just as fast.

We are close to a 7-year bear market in gold so far, and I think it’s far from over. I’ve counted out 13-year bearish moves in silver several times, but that doesn’t mean it will happen this time.

Hits: 12

Gold Intraday Peak Update!

Last month gold has finally decided to back off in its price surge to $1325. If this so-called bull market in gold is real then a strong correction has to complete well before the $1160 price bottom. That’s a lot of price distance gold has to cover, which the majority of participants don’t expect. Banks are up to their usual tricks and have been buying gold in 2018.  The problem with banks buying and selling gold is they always buy high and then sell low at bear market bottoms. Back in 1998-2000, they were selling gold as fast as they could with countries unloading their gold stashes as well. In 1999 gold was considered an ancient relic, close to junk status.

As fast and far that gold can soar, it can crash even faster and deeper. We could see a correction, but don’t get excited as even a zigzag decline can crash to new lows if this bullish phase is just a big bear rally. Fear could engulf many asset classes where there is no place to hide as stock markets and gold crash at the same time.  Sure, I can be wrong and it will be important to recognize a correction when it’s going to finish.

I believe the 2011 peak was a 30-year mania peak in Cycle degree wave 3. Any Cycle degree bear market in gold does not end in just 8 or 10 years, as the bear market in gold during the 1990’s last 20 years.

Since the government shutdown, the first COT report was published last Friday. The way things are going the government could shut down again, with no COT reports being produced.

When I first saw the report I noticed a very large shift to the bearish side, with about 5-6 weeks backlogged data being published.

 

Commercials added 33,486 short positions and took away 2058 long positions, for a combined total of 35,544 contracts totaling just over 3.5 million Troy ounces.  Now, look over to the NON-Commercial side (Speculators).  We can see they did the exact opposite, chasing this gold bullish phase.  The problem is that both parties can’t be right!  The mass media always talk about what the speculators are doing and ignore all commercial hedgers action. From my perspective, the commercial hedgers have the best track record and ignoring them usually brings pain and suffering onto the bulls that think a trend can never end. What the COT report is telling me is that no super gold bull will start to soar anytime soon.

There is no corrective price bottom I want to use right now, as a 60%-70% net crash can happen. The $1200 price level is a gold psychological price level so if and when the gold price ever hits that area again it could put up a big fight!

Silver has a lot less distance to fall before it resumes the big bear market again.  Silver only has to fall below $14 and then below $13.50 and it would be back into its bear market.

Hits: 4

Gold 1950-2011 Review

I’m showing a big picture in gold that very few wave analysts will show us. Wave analysts have gold in a bull market with the contrarians making damn sure in telling me that I’m wrong that gold still has to form new record lows in the next 2-3 years.  The $1400-$1050 price range in gold is the argument and recently gold was heading to $1325, so the $1400 gold price move is not yet dead!

The main difference of opinion is what we think the 2011 peak in gold actually was?  If we think that the 2011 peak was just a normal peak in a normal bull market then yes,  many expect a new bull market in gold. From my Cycle degree perspective, this gold peak of 2011 is part of a 30-year cycle which had peaked in 1950, 1980 and now in 2011. We are out by one year but the next major mania gold and silver peak will not happen until 2041. 2041 would be the Cycle degree wave 5 peak, and since no 5th wave should ever be uncapped, 2041 will also be an SC degree wave 3 peak.

There is little doubt in my mind that this gold market has not completed any 4th wave in Cycle degree. At a bare minimum, gold would have to retrace deep enough to enter the price level of the 1980 peak of $850. The 2011  peak also matches the first peak of solar cycle #24. 1980 was also a solar cycle peak but I’m not sure of the exact cycle peak it was.  All commodities follow diagonal patterns and from the 1950 peak to the 2011 peak gold was just a huge zigzag.

Gold travels up and down with demographics as I started work at the bottom of wave 2 in cycle degree and the bull market in gold we do see was created by the boomers entering the labor force. In 1968 I was working for $2.98 CAD per hour, but we got a 20% pay raise every year for 4 years running!  I was able to save money and still blow much of it on having a good time.

If gold ever plunges below $500 in the next 2-3 years then gold will be a long term hold until 2041!  At this scale, the 200-day MA is still down at the $1000 price level and betting against gold hitting this 200-day MA may be a long term losing proposition.

What will happen first? Will gold close above $1400, before it closes below $1050? One price represents a bullish breakout while the $1050 price level would the bearish breakout!   Just to really make things interesting gold could shoot above $1401 and then turn around and head down to $1049!

 

Hits: 13

Gold Intraday High Update

This morning gold spike to a high of $1315 before gold started to back off.  Analysts are bullish but most of them give emotional reasons why gold has been going up.  “Trade Concerns”  is just another mild way of calling gold’s bullish run as a safe-haven run.  There is a good chance that gold can dip to the $1300 price level, and then give us another leg up.  Sure, silver has also gone up but gold has left silver in the dust!

Even the gold-related ETFs and indices are lagging far behind the gold price. At this 90 minute scale, we get more “Crossings” as it didn’t take to long to travel from a Death Cross, right back to a Golden Cross. On the daily chart, we are still under the effect of the Golden Cross.

Ultimately it’s the USD dollar’s bearish action that is pushing gold higher.  My Market Vane report has expired and my COT reports may get published this Friday. Last time the commercials had very bearish positions, so it will be interesting to see how they shifted their positions. This Friday economic reports usually come out as well and if investors interpret them wrong, it could start a mini sell-off.

Hits: 6

Gold Daily Chart: Bullish Review

Since the August 2018 bottom of $1160, gold started to make its present-day run. This came close to $1300 with a total run length of about $140. In the last day or so gold has started to retreat a bit. This run was choppy as waves overlapped and destroyed any true impulse we may have had. The gold bulls are confident that gold will still travel much further, but they need for gold to break out above the $1400 price level just to confirm that gold is still in a bull market.  The only way I can see that gold will continue is if the $1160 bottom was a “B” wave in Intermediate degree.   The COT reports are old as the government shut down has not produced any reports since December 20, 2018.

This diagonal set of 5 waves has to produce a “Correction”, in order for gold to produce two more legs up. How deep this correction can go, can always fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. Of course where this previous 4th wave of one lesser degree actually is, is just an opinion at best. Folks, gold can crash in a 60%-70% net move that could send gold back down to the $1200 price level. $1200 is a psychological number and if gold dropped down below $1200 the gold bugs would start to get pretty agitated.

We are still in the Death Cross zone with this daily chart, and gold would have to keep soaring in order for the Golden Cross to become real.  On A weekly chart, gold is now well above both MA lines with the 200-day MA support being at $1234. Sure gold stocks have moved up as well but, they sure are acting like they don’t care about the gold price surge.  We have one gap open below present prices, which should get closed once gold retraces below $1270.

This entire move could still be a bear market rally and a complete retracement of the $1160 price level would have to happen.  What the majority don’t understand is that the 2011 peak in the gold price was a gold and silver price mania/bubble that only comes along once every 30 years or so.  Gold peaks of 1920, 1950, 1980 and 2011 follow Cycle and Primary degree moves, with the next big top being closer to 2041 when Cycle degree wave 5 is also due.

Those that did not pay attention or record all the mania readings during 2010-2011, will think we are in a normal gold correction and a new leg up is in the “Bag”, so to speak.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is very good at recording these moods and I will insert their gold chart below.

 

Hits: 17

Gold Daily Chart Year End Update!

I still have a “B” wave peak in Minor degree as the decline could fit into a diagonal 5 wave sequence.  It is priceless to see gold scream higher and end in a near vertical spike to the upside at the end of the month and the end of a year.  Even though gold gave us an impressive run so far, I believe a correction is due.  Of course, this correction may never happen if the entire move in gold was just a bear market rally!   Gold sliced through the 200-day MA on this daily chart, but on the weekly chart gold just hit the 200-day MA. That hints of resistance which matches many of the peaks in 2017.

I labeled the Aug/Dec run as a triangle which can happen in 4th waves, but the exact same wave count can double as a diagonal set of 5 waves with a degree adjustment. A potential diagonal wave one will still force a substantial correction for gold, where gold can crash back down to the $1200 price level before it cranks up again.  This move has the look of a “fear” run as it started at the same time stocks started to move to the downside.   Gold would have to travel much further before a Golden Cross is created. The 50-day may not reach the 200-day MA before gold turns down again.

The December 20th COT reports showed that the commercials were making a very bearish move by adding to their already net short positions. At the same time, the commercial hedgers removed long positions which just adds to their bearish outlook. We’re not at any extreme but it sure does not support any huge bullish phase still to come. Gaps to the upside have opened up, so they will get filled before gold can keep heading north.

Meanwhile, the speculators are taking the exact opposite side of the trade as they are chasing this bull market. FOMO is a very powerful motivator, but emotional moves seemed to have a limited lifespan.

Silver has also soared with the COT reports showing the same moves as with gold.  2019 is a new year and we could get a new direction in gold as well.  Gold peaked in 2011 which matches the first peak in solar cycle #24, this peak was not some little peak in an ongoing bull market, but it was a once in 30-year mania peak.  In this case, it was 30 +1 years from the 1980 peak. 1950 was the previous peak all matching Cycle degree peaks. Do not underestimate the power of the solar cycles on gold as solar cycle turnings seemed to attract but can also alternate by repelling.

2011 was a wave 3 peak in Cycle degree so until I see a complete zigzag or flat coming to an end, I will look for the bearish moves.

Commodities run on a different idealized diagonal pattern than what stocks do, and it was the Roaring 20’s when impulse waves started to take over and the choppiness of commodities disappeared.

Have a Safe and Happy New Year!

Hits: 12

Gold Daily Chart Rally Update And The Death Cross!

 

The gold Death Cross on this daily chart happened around the $1305 price level. Fundamental analysts don’t have a clue about what a Death Cross is or the long-term damage that they forecast. Gold was well below the 50-day MA but now has found a bit of support with the 50-day MA.  The 200-day MA is still far away before the 50-day slices into the 200-day MA.  The 5 waves I show are all diagonal wave structures so the 5th wave is also a small zigzag. I’m going to stay with the same degree level even though I only had about 3-degree levels to work with. I stay with 15-degree levels as when I run out at Miniscule degree, then I know that all degree levels may need a second look.

Switch this gold chart to a weekly chart and we can see gold sitting at the 50-day MA.

Since the August bottom of $1160, gold looks like a triangle, but we should not get a triangle in a wave 1-2 positions. Any break above $1240 will work to finish off the last zigzag wave.

Gold is fooling us as silver has gone the opposite way and was on the cusp of creating a new bear market low. Last weeks COT report still have the commercials net short in gold and silver which does not get me excited about some super bullish move still to come. Three or four gold stock ETFs have already created new record lows, so it’s not just one thing that I look at.

Commercial hedgers are short in palladium, platinum, copper, and aluminum, which is also very bearish in the longer term.

 

 

Hits: 8

Gold Daily Chart Rally Update!

I’m sure that gold investors are jumping up and down with glee this morning as gold made a great looking vertical move to the $1224 price level. I take it as another gold bear market rally as gold has to impress me by the 50-Day MA line becoming support. Silver moved as well but silver is just getting close to the 50-Day MA.

The Platinum chart looks like this daily chart except it went sideways and flat before it crashed to new record lows.

The speed of the rally should give us a clue that it could be an emotional rally, not the start of a real trend.  Emotional buying for FOMO reasons never last. The US dollar would have to keep imploding like it did this morning.

Hits: 15

Gold Weekly Chart 200-Day Support Or Resistance?

 

Gold is stuck in midterm elections, but it should not take long for gold to start moving again! The big question will be, “In which direction gold will resume”?  Right now gold has been having great difficulty trying to rise above the 200-day MA.  If the bull market scenario is, “True”, then gold has to soar. It may take a bit more time as investors need 3-4 hours to consume the results. That may happen long before the final midterm results are fully known. If election results do not move the price of gold, then I don’t know what will?

We could see a very violent move where gold shoots up, but then reverses just as fast. We have 3 gold support prices with the above weekly chart, and if each price support gets broken, it’s one more nail, or should I say 3 more nails hammered into golds coffin! Of course, gold heading down is considered a crazy idea. For the last few years gold has gone nowhere fast and when it tries to break out, gold just turns around and implodes. We won’t have that long to wait as I expect the gold price to start moving again.

Trends built on fear never last long as gold traders are extremely emotional and can run from gold even faster. Many presidents tend to lose ground in midterm elections and President Trump will be no different. All the stunts President Trump has created in the last few months, is related to the midterm elections. Opec was glad to help as they just pumped more oil to bring the price of oil down before the elections. President Trump is not the only president that has done this as others have tried as well.

 

Hits: 12

Gold Daily Chart Rally Update

 

This morning gold is producing a small double top with a few small spikes before gold started to make another correction. If this is the big one already then there is no way that gold should crash very deep before it lifts off for another leg up. That’s the song and dance we get from all the bullish gold investors. Is this the start of a 1-2, 1-2 count? In a wave 3 extension, there are only about 3 sets of 1-2 waves that will happen, so we need one more, smaller 1-2 wave set in order for this trend to keep going.

Any move down that retraces below that $1180 price level will kill any idea of this gold rally to be into a bullish phase.  This gold rally has a good chance of being a fake start, and if the markets are good enough to confirm this, then we still have wave 3-4-5 to complete.

Platinum made the exact same move as gold, but platinum crashed to new record lows already, with about the exact same wave count as in gold. The difference since the 2016 bottom is that platinum was far lower and more sideways in the last year and 10 months.

Silver is also reacting but in a subdued fashion as well. Silver only has to fall below $13 and it will have resumed its bearish phase. It’s more important to watch silver as it walks to a different drummer than what gold is walking to.

The markets have been tumbling this week, and when stocks rally again, gold investors will run back into stocks as fast as their little fingers allow them to click, as fear moves never last that long.

Hits: 10

Gold Weekly Chart, 200-Day Moving Average Update!

 

I realize that my bearish precious metals outlook does not sit well with many of the gold bulls still around today. The gold bulls that only see or want to see a bullish gold wave count will not find it on this blog just yet! The people that like to shred my work are the bullish investors. There are thousands of sites out today that will cater to your gold related bullish needs, and they may even be telling us about a $5000 gold price coming soon!  They always use the fiat money printing fundamentals as a reason to hedge, or stay invested in gold!  This time I included the 50-200-day MA and we can see that gold is hitting the 200-day MA line. Gold would have to rise sharply to get above and stay above, this 200-day MA. Since gold is still in the glow of the “Golden Gross”, then the 50-day MA must not fall into the 200-day MA, because then we would get a “Death Cross” in this weekly gold chart. I track 3 major gold price support numbers with $1160, $1120 and $1047!

The gold bulls need for gold to break well above $1400, while the gold bears need gold to crash below $1047. The entire gold related analytical world is focused on these two main price levels.

Which price level is going to get hit first?  It might take the rest of this month or even longer before we can become more certain. All my metal COT reports do not support a big bullish surge at this time.

All the wave counting in the world will not help us forecast the gold price if we have no clue what that 2011 peak actually was.

I included the silver, copper and gold COT report again, which I see as very bearish indicators. The herd of metal analysts always recite or use the non-commercial trader’s numbers, but they are always the group that gets into a trap be it a bear or bull. The COT reports get posted on Fridays and investors have the choice to read or ignore.

Hits: 14

Gold Daily Chart: Resuming The Bearish Trend?

Gold did hit a bottom at $1160, but that was a pretty docile type of a bottom, just like all the others before it has been.  Bear markets do not end with a whimper, especially anything related to the commodities markets.  The people that say, stocks, gold, oil can’t crash together better check your history, as it sure happened in 1929-1932. It also happens in 2008 as everything except the US dollar got dragged down as well.  The common belief that gold is just in a bull market correction, do not understand that 2011 was a 30-year commodities mania peak. 2011 is a Cycle degree wave 3 top, which only happens once every 30 years ± 1 year.

This wave position came back from hibernation as we could be in a wave 1-2 rally in Minute degree. Do not underestimate the power for gold to move with great speed when it wants to, as these types of declines can also produce “Gaps” on the way down.  Any $142 drop would crash gold below $1047, which I consider would be a walk in the park for gold.

You can beat your head up against the wall if you try to inject fundamentals to explain every move gold makes. Fundamentals are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. They change like the wind because they ignore the biggest fundamentals of them all and that is “people”. There is a huge “fundamental generational shift in effect” as 10,000 Boomers have been retiring every day since 2011.

Also when Generation X hit the average age of 46, which is their peak spending years, it will reduce the “velocity of money” in the economy as well. Those are all “fundamentals” that nobody talks about but are critical to the future gold price and its large cycles.

This insane real-estate mania will also turn into a bust, which we know is happening just from lumbers futures ongoing price crash. Deflation is the real threat as T-Bonds will soar and the US dollar keeps pushing higher.

Hits: 6

Gold Intraday Update: Is The Correction Finished?

 

Gold sure looks like it turned this morning, which could be the end of the correction. All we need is for gold to trash some of the resistance we are going to run into, then the gold bulls will take over control of the market again. The pattern I’m expecting is a sequence of 5 waves up in Minor degree. This eventualy should push the gold price to $1700-$1900, but all indicators I use will have to confirm it first.

I use GDX as my main trading ETF, and it should also have hit a bottom this morning.

Hits: 14

Gold Intraday Bull Market Update.

 

This is the 90-minute intraday chart, with the bearish phase ending in August 2018.  Since then gold is doing what a bullish market is supposed to be doing as 5 waves seemed to be forming.  I may have to adjust the degree level later on,  but for now, I will start with 5 waves up in Minute degree, with a starting 1-2, 1-2 wave count. Gold could turn into diagonal waves, just as easily, which only time can confirm in the next few weeks.

Last week of a quarter, after which gold could soar much further. Technically speaking, gold should form 5 waves up in Minor degree, that will eventually push gold way over $1375 again. $1375 is the key price that gold has to retrace because that is the location of an Intermediate degree top.

I’m looking for a Primary “B” wave top, so the Intermediate degree position eventually has to get retraced. The only way gold will keep going up is if the US dollar keeps up its decline. Investors love that $1200 price level, and sooner or later, gold will get above that number and not get hit again for some time.

At this time I have a gold price window bull market peak, between $1700-$1900. Compare that to GDX, and GDX could hit between $45-$65.

The US dollar already took 14 months for its A5 wave decline with a 6-month counter-rally. If zigzags are supposed to be even, then another 14-month decline would be an initial time target of November 2019, as a potential peak.

At this time gold may work as a safe-haven asset class, but long-term every myth that you know about gold will be proven false. Gold will never protect you from deflation, and the only way gold will protect you against inflation is when the price of gold gets crushed. Banks are buying gold this year, but back in 1998, they were selling gold.

The big thing that readers of this blog must be confident about, and that is what that 2011 peak in gold represents!

Before you think that gold is just in an ordinary bull market again, then you should do your homework in what a mania is! Gold runs on a 30-year cycle from one mania peak to the next, so the next mania is not going to peak until 2041. This would be Supercycle degree wave 3 in commodaties.

One thing I’m very certain on, that at the peak of this bullish run, gold will give bullion holders a chance to unload or they will suffer the consequences when gold crashes between $500-$350! Deflation is coming in the next three years, and gold will, “Never” protect you from this deflation.

Boomers are retiring at a rate of 10,000 per day for the next 19 years! What do you think they will do with their investments?  All those boomers will be permanent sellers of real-estate.

It’s not just gold,  but the entire commodities world will get hit with deflation by 2022-2023

 

This is what the COT report on gold looks like. This does not instill any great confidence that a super gold bull is coming when their stats are so flat and even. Oh, I’m sure this picture will change, until we can see some extreme readings again. When the top speculators move to the bottom then we know that the speculators are in a bull trap, and it would be time to short gold again.

 

Hits: 12

Gold Daily Chart Update

 

 

So far gold has started to rally from that August low, but this morning gold to a swan dive that is hard to see on a daily chart but it sure shows well with an intraday chart.  What you see in this daily chart is a Minor degree triangle with a count of 5 zigzags. This hasn’t changed at all, even after I moved my “A”  in Primary degree back about 2 years and 8 months. I like to calculate my time in years, +or- 1 year.  Being late by over 2 years, 8 months in a Primary degree wave position, is time traveling on paper at warp speed. Being out by a Primary degree time position will throw all-time forecasts out the window, the second they are created. 2011 was a Cycle degree gold mania peak in Cycle degree which very few gold experts even acknowledge. Those that do are hated by gold investors, as they do not understand that gold has 30-year cycles to them, from peak to peak.

The last thing I will ever do and that is, call a long position in gold an investment. I reversed all my bearish positions well over a week ago before I get out of bed as I put in all my orders late at night.

This so-called shorter move is just the last part of a running triangle. Running patterns are very normal much like the “E” wave in gold. Some are even bent over much worse as some of the gold stock ETFs show us. It’s not the $1160 price that is important but it’s the spike that made it, which is much more important.  At the top, we had 4-5 spikes to the upside which all failed.

I have switched to the bullish side but mostly use GDX to trade with.  I believe this impending gold market bear “rally” should show us 5 waves up in Minor degree but they could get very ugly pattern wise. 5 wave runs in any direction is not something I want to miss as they are the ones that can give you stunning returns if we can ride them out. I’m a gold bull rider now and will stay that way until all indicators tell me I’m in a bull trap!

My main trading ETF is GDX as the reversal we had, happen the same way in late 2008. As of August 2018, I have thrown options into the mix as just “one” of the uses for options is to treat them like Insurance. I had loss insurance out on my silver coin bet, and it already paid out very well.

Hits: 38

Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Phase Review

 

Several weeks ago the commercial traders changed into a net long position with gold which was the first time this happened since the late 1990s.  I had to move my Primary degree “A” wave bottom to late 2015 which is back about 2 years and 8 months. This is another example of time traveling on paper as my old wave positions had me late or behind by 2.8 years! One wrong large degree can put us off by 100’s of years, if we do not know what that 2011 gold peak was.

The 2011 gold peak  was a Gold/Silver mania peak that comes along once every 30 years + or – 1 year!  Anybody with time to kill and a calculator can check these numbers by going back 90 years or going formward 90 years. 90 years make up 3, 30 year cycles, from 1980 forward. 2041 would be the year of the next SC degree wave 3 peak, which will never happen until the price of gold  gets crushed in the next 2-3 years. $1160 in gold had a strong spike to the downside which may hold and deserves attention to make sure it will hold.

I mentioned it many times that gold could soar to that $1800 price level, but it sure will not soar $1000 like I said it might do. Now it would only soar $640-$650 to get to the same price target.

My triangle in the “B” wave stays exactly the same as I still need the higher degree change before it happens. If the $1160 price level holds it would be a running pattern for sure. I don’t believe in truncated patterns as I see all of these as running patterns. Even if gold started out and developed a 5 wave structure, it could also be a triangle inside the “B” wave.

We had the Death Cross in a daily chart but the Golden cross is still active in gold. In the weekly charts and the 50-day MA may not cross golds  200-day MA and even provide support for the next leg up in gold.  Gold is still in a bear market rally as no Cycle degree correction has completed in gold at this time. It’s pretty sad when we can’t see the 2011 peak as a maina peak as all the numbers read “extreme” back in 2011. Bubbles do not end well and gold has been brainwashing us as it has not yet completed the mania bear market by a long shot.

It may take until 2022 before the real bottom in gold will arrive, after the gold price is “CRUSHED”! Only when an asset class is crushed in price does it become an investment and until then I will only trade the 5 wave moves.  It takes me about 15-20 minutes of work at night and I can be completely in cash by first opening before I get out of bed. At the same time I can execute some long positions in GDX  but in small increments of 100 shares each time. Some 5 cent call options will help the share count if we only have 400-500 share long positions. 25 calls are about equal to adding 2500 shares to a trade.  Option failure depends on how you use them and how you handle the loss once they expire worthless.

It looks like if this $1160 price holds, then gold below $1047 will not happen and then $1400 gold will get breached. Once $1400 gets breached, I lose my 10-ounce silver coin. That’s ok, as I had some PUTs out, that coverd the loss of a 10 ounce silver coin. I also cashed in 20 October puts to cover the risk of all my options going to zero.

So far in the last 12 months I have enjoyed a 92% gain in my printouts, and I would be happy if that happened again on the long side.

Remember, that the gold price has nothing to do with printing money, it has to do with the “velocity” of the money in the economy. This velocity can increase with seasonal spending like for Halloween and Christmas shopping or January RRSP spending. Long term the velocity of money is going to decrease on a massive scale as 10,000 boomers are retiring every single day for the next 19 years!  What will happen to the stock market once the pensioners have to cash in, I don’t think I will be “investing” if my cane can’t beat my mouse anymore!  🙄  All those boomers retiring will strain the private and government pension plans to the extreme, if not fail completely. Longer term deflation is the real threat, even when gold makes another strong showing.

Even my IWA pension plan, or the Ontario Teachers Union pension plan will see some hits that are hard to imaging at this time.

Hits: 46

Gold Daily Chart Update

 

When we notice a pattern as choppy as gold was during 2017 and early 2018, then this is telling us that gold is traveling up when the bigger trend is down. I counted out the triangle in gold with more detail this time as I will not keep filling in the sames positions over and over again. The only way we can have a triangle in a 5th wave decline is in a diagonal set of 5 waves. Triangles also send out a clear warning that once they are completed, I must increase my wave degree by a minimum of 1 degree, and even 2 degree levels at certain times.

The 2017 peak was an Intermediate degree peak, so gold must exceed the 2017 peak by a wide margin, ($1375). We would be on a Primary degree run, specifically a “B” wave in Primary degree.  Three big moves in Primary degree is in our gold future, and it would be best to talk about that when I update GDX!

We did get a strong spike down to the $1160 price level, but that support price will not hold, which makes the $1120 price level the next target to get hit. Once gold gets below $1120 there is only one leg of a bar stool that hasn’t cracked yet. Three cracked legs will not hold the heavy gold bullion owners, and the $1047 gold price level will confirm without a shadow of doubt, that gold was just in a bear market rally.  If an Intermediate degree bear market rally can fool the majority of investors, then a Primary degree “B” wave bullish top will really fool them again.

The anticipaded “B” wave gold bullish phase will also be the last time that we can sell bullion into a mania peak, because it will not be until 2041 when SC degree wave 3 in gold arrives. Yes, 30 years between gold mania peaks which nobody expects, but it will produce some of the best trading we can do for the rest of our lives.

The Gold Death Cross was at $1300 with this daily chart, and the weekly chart Death Cross is still to come.

Hits: 19

Gold Daily Chart Bear Market Review.

 

I think only watching the gold price is a big smoke and mirror magician act and they are “Bluffing us”.  What we are looking at, is a tringle inside a “B” wave zigzag. This always dictates that I “must” find one higher degree once these 5 diagonal 5 waves are completed. Silver and all gold stock ETFs do not confirm this gold bullish looking pattern. Silver only has to fall another $1.50 and it well be close to a new record bear market low. You can’t have gold in a bull market while silver breaks to new bear market lows. Even some of my gold stock related ETFs are also very close to breaking new record lows, so it’s not just one thing. We had so many bearish warnings that gold was going to implode, but thankfully gold investors ignore all these bearish signs. and technical indicators as well.

The Death Cross on this daily cash chart was at $1300 and the weekly Death Cross is still to come.

Even the gold hedge funds and the commercial traders have net short positions on gold. This is a bit rare but it has happened before.  Eventually the hedge funds will get into a really big bear trap and that’s when this gold market will reverse and soar north again. Printing money has nothing to do with the price of gold but it’s the velocity of any money that does drive the price of gold.

Gold hit a 30 year record high in 2011, which was a “mania peak”, not some silly correction in an ongoing bull market. Commodity crashes don’t end with some flimsy bottom but they end in a far more violent nature.  Bear market rallies “Always” retrace their entire bullish moves back down to and below the point of orgin. It seems the gold bullish wave analysts have turned a bear market rally into a bull market,  as they are all confinced that gold will still break above $1400 this year!  Good luck with that, as it seems that gold investors are following those wild bullish wave counts, which I always bet against. We can tell if we are on the wrong side as our bullish positions refuse to perform the way a bull market should.

Presently we are in a Minor degree “C” wave decline and is just about the smallest 5 wave sequence I will bet on, provided my account can handle it. There are about 3-4 ETF’s that track this gold futures cash chart very well. I’ts when they contain Options is when the patterns go insane. I’m starting to love options but will not know how much until the end of this year when all my PUTs must be closed off.

I have heard it many times how the majority of Options expire worthless, but this all depends in how we use options! If the majority of options expire worthless then it’s not a good idea to use options to chase a market in any direction. One wrong move against you and the options can go to zero and never recover before expiration date.

I will not give out details of my options trading until all PUTs are closed off, and I’m starting to build calls or take long positions in GDX or GDXJ.  I have 2hr lunch meetings with my buddy and he has taken an options course, which he likes as well. He brought a huge stack of his books, so I told him that he was hired as my Options consultant!   🙄 The fact that we can talk the same options language and work together, is more important than his real world experiences.  Everything I do can be cloned and scaled up with no real limits.

Traders don’t have to make millions as all it takes is a good healthy trading account where you can draw extra cash every year or month from. I would be happier than a littly piggy playing in a pig-pen if sometime by this year end, I cashed out with $89,000 or more!

I have a family wedding barbecue to go to this Sunday and if the weather holds, they can be a lot of fun.

Have a Great weekend!

Hits: 38

Quick Gold Intraday Rally Update.

 

Gold followed through with a push above $1200 again. $1210 seems to be the peak this morning. Since I can count this rally like only 5 waves have developed, then chances are good this counter rally is not completed yet. We could see a severe drop in the price of gold, but then gold can come back hard one more time. Overall the big 2018 summer decline is one single move with 5 waves in Minute degree, which is the tail end of a diagonal Minor degree zigzag crash. It’s also the smallest 5 wave run that I will trade in.

I use GDX and GDXJ instead of gold but will add GLDM when the next big bullish phase comes. This may take all of 2019 as well.

 

Hits: 37

Gold Intraday Rally Update

Last week gold and gold stocks made a single spike to the downside. This is what may happen at a major bottom and is a signal to close some bearish positions. I closed off some PUTs as I plan to have a small group of options come due every month. That crazy decline sure seems to fit into a diagonal 5th wave. Just to get all the gold bulls excited again, it would not surprise me if gold closed above $1200 for a couple of days. At $1215 we have a road block when gold refused to go any higher.

The August sideways move is just a mini version of what gold looks like on a daily chart! If gold traveled up to $1215 then we woud  be looking at another Head&Shoulder bull trap! This run could also end with a spike, and it may take the rest of this week to play out. I would rather give this rally a bit more time than try to get perfect timing at this intraday scale.

The reason for golds rally is that the US dollar is also making a correction in its bull market. The next big downside price target to watch is that $1120 price, as then 3 legs of a 4 legged bar stool, have already cracked.

 

Hits: 16

Gold Intraday Bear Market Update!

Intraday updates might be important for day traders, but I assure readers that I’m not a day trader, nor an investor. In my Cycle degree world only 4 degree levels have any importance at all. Minor, Intermedeate, Primary and Cycle degree. It is any big 5 wave sequence in Minor degree or more where all the money is being made. We can’t make any money, as we can only work for it and earn it. Get real gains mixed up with any unrealized gains will not work as well. Any trade can be up 300%, but we don’t make a single dime until that position is close off.

Gold ended on a very nice little spike to the downside which was followed by a counter rally fairly quick. This rally may still have some to go, but eventually the bearish gold trend will return. Once a trend takes hold, nothing will stop that trend until it’s draws to its final conclusion. This Primary degree bottom in Gold could end up between $700-$800 USD, which puts gold at the same bottom as 2008 was. Even if gold hits $691 it would not be a problem, as that would give gold a little more than a $100 window to reverse in. It still would take the rest of the year or even to late November (21st) before we can expect a bottom in the gold price.

When gold declines this much then it is a “CLEAR” sign, that gold is telling us that deflation is happening. Gold has been deflating since the 30 year cycle peak in 2011, along with gold stock ETFs. It may not finish until after, or close to 2021! Of course a huge gold counter rally will get in the way, which I don’t intend on missing as I always work 3 steps ahead of the crowd. Sorry, but only working one step ahead is no longer good enough, as I work on much stricter parameters. I’m only short IAU with a token 100 shares, but all my biggest short positions are with GDX and as of this morning I added a some GDXJ PUTs. All my trading account short positions are in the green and I have no intention of covering any of them until GDX also has it’s downside breakout. Not until all my short positions have been closed off, will I know how much of a new capital base I have to work with. I know what my goals are and I document and even print out different stages of this gold bearish decline. I will give full trading account discloser to my buddy this week, as I have added options into the mix.

Options always expire and go to zero, but any PUT can go to zero the same day you execute! It just about happened to me this week, but it’s no reason to panic, as a week later all these PUTS I have are now in the green!  Green is good in any direction we bet on, but we gain nothing if we don’t execute and capture this “green” 🙂

One single PUT or Call represents 100 shares, so eventually I always want to carry 250 options in any direction. I’m far from that folks, but planning is the key as it has to fit into our capital base as well.

 

Hits: 10

Gold Daily Chart: Fast Approaching $1120!

So far so good, as the gold price keeps heading south. I use the $1120 price level as the third leg of a bar stool, so when it gets retraced there will be no mistake or argument because of little chart differences. If I turn this into line mode, all new prices would appear and even some spikes disappear. I don’t need to fill out any of the intraday Minute degree patterns as I will never be a day trader. The most power comes from a 5 wave sequence rally or decline. In this gold bearish phase I do have a Minor degree move and that is my bare minimum to make it worthwhile to bet short or long on. Thinking that you are one step ahead of the herd, is not good enough in todays world, as I always think, draw and plan 3 steps ahead of the crowd. (A, B, C,) or (1-3-5).

Since the 2011 peak, the gold bear market is in a diagonal set of 5 waves in Intermediate degree, all consisting of connecting zigzags. At the $1360 peak I had a $15 gold window for the entire wave count to go wrong. These connecting zigzag moves must all be labelled, (ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4, and ABC5! ) There is hardly any difference between a diagoanl run and a triangle run except for their locations. In this case the triangle is in the gold Minor degree “B” wave, which also dictates the end, following the bearish 5 wave decline.  Modern wave analysts are calling this “B” wave as a bullish pattern, which is complete nonsense as far as I’m concerned.

When this gold crash ends I will be forced to look for the next higher degree, which will be a Primary degree “A” wave bottom. You never want to be left hanging in a short position when an “A” wave in Primary degree is completing. I have short positions out on GDX and IAU and have no intention of closing off and take early profits before it’s time.

The Death Cross in this daily chart happened at the $1300 price level and gold investors will find out how stupid it is to be invested at the top of a Death Cross! The Death Cross on the weekly chart is still ahead so there is a lot more pain coming for the gold investors.

Hits: 9