Last night gold pushed to $1411 after which it started to back off. Short term, golds rally may add another leg up but I think that a correction is due
The entire gold bullish phase that started back in late 2015, from the $1050 price level, will soon be 3 1/2 years old.
3 1/2 years for an Intermediate degree move is stretching it so moving everything up by one degree is an option. In other words, we could be in a Primary degree “B” move that is just another big bear market rally.
At a minimum, another correction is due which could send gold back down to the $1260 price level. The $1260 price range would only be a small correction but if a much bigger corrective move is coming then the $1260 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding.
Any gold run below $1160 would confirm that the 5 waves just completing was just part of another fancy bear market rally.
I personally would not be caught dead being long in gold when a vertical move is completing, but the rest of the world is super bullish in gold.
To show how bullish they are I took a screen clip of all the gold contracts going out to December 2024 where gold was already pushing $1511. Any bear attack will certainly change all the above contracts, and with a $100 spread the wave patterns that far out, are radically different.
Sure gold has had a nice run but big bear market rallies can fool us all the time. Gold bulls are smiling as they see this breakout as the beginning, not the end! Since 2011 gold has had many false bullish moves so what’s the difference this time?
It’s all about the fundamental news but yet nobody can remember these fundamentals a few months later. At least with wave positions, we have a much bigger and longer time horizon. All the wave counting in the world matters little if we have no clue what degree level that the 2011 peak is.
My gold wave counts need more time until the public lays all its fears on the front pages.
I had a bet going that gold would not see $1400 or higher and yet it did just that, last night. 10 ounces of silver was on the line so I must deliver the 10-ounce silver coin today!