OIL CHARTS

OIL CHARTS

INDEX CHARTS

INDEX CHARTS

PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS

PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS

STOCK CHARTS

STOCK CHARTS

CURRENCY CHARTS

CURRENCY CHARTS

ENERGY CHARTS

ENERGY CHARTS

 

Category Archives: PRECIOUS METALS

Gold Daily Chart Update

 

 

So far gold has started to rally from that August low, but this morning gold to a swan dive that is hard to see on a daily chart but it sure shows well with an intraday chart.  What you see in this daily chart is a Minor degree triangle with a count of 5 zigzags. This hasn’t changed at all, even after I moved my “A”  in Primary degree back about 2 years and 8 months. I like to calculate my time in years, +or- 1 year.  Being late by over 2 years, 8 months in a Primary degree wave position, is time traveling on paper at warp speed. Being out by a Primary degree time position will throw all-time forecasts out the window, the second they are created. 2011 was a Cycle degree gold mania peak in Cycle degree which very few gold experts even acknowledge. Those that do are hated by gold investors, as they do not understand that gold has 30-year cycles to them, from peak to peak.

The last thing I will ever do and that is, call a long position in gold an investment. I reversed all my bearish positions well over a week ago before I get out of bed as I put in all my orders late at night.

This so-called shorter move is just the last part of a running triangle. Running patterns are very normal much like the “E” wave in gold. Some are even bent over much worse as some of the gold stock ETFs show us. It’s not the $1160 price that is important but it’s the spike that made it, which is much more important.  At the top, we had 4-5 spikes to the upside which all failed.

I have switched to the bullish side but mostly use GDX to trade with.  I believe this impending gold market bear “rally” should show us 5 waves up in Minor degree but they could get very ugly pattern wise. 5 wave runs in any direction is not something I want to miss as they are the ones that can give you stunning returns if we can ride them out. I’m a gold bull rider now and will stay that way until all indicators tell me I’m in a bull trap!

My main trading ETF is GDX as the reversal we had, happen the same way in late 2008. As of August 2018, I have thrown options into the mix as just “one” of the uses for options is to treat them like Insurance. I had loss insurance out on my silver coin bet, and it already paid out very well.

Hits: 20

Silver Weekly Chart: A Double Bottom And A Bear Trap!

 

I will no longer count out Minute degree waves unless I need them to clarify a pattern. I think an SLV bear trap is in, and the fear or threat of a further decline is not going to happen. Markets never reward fear, as it takes courage to do the opposite thing. Technically the 5 waves I was expecting have already started. I only have some real money Silver units in my Forex trading account as the rest is all with GDX and options.

The only way that silver and gold will fly, is when the US dollar turns south. In the end, it will always be about the currency markets and their wild swings. Last week many of the COT reports came out with some extremes, in all those currencies inverse to the US dollar. We can argue for years where silver will end up at, but that all depends on what that 2011 peak was all about. That 2011 peak was a gold&silver mania peak that comes along once every 30 years! It is very easy to double check and count backward 3, 30-year cycles, starting from the 2011 peak, plus or minus, one year!

Commodities do not follow the normal idealized patterns as they are all connected with zigzag type waves. Why do you think that the bear market with silver in the 1990s is so choppy?  It’s because it was a very drawn out flat type of a running pattern between a much bigger zigzag in Primary degree.  It could even work as a triangle as we did move into one higher degree in 2011.

Every person can pinpoint their birth year in this 30-year cycle, as I was born year one after the 1950 gold peak. Between each cycle, it will end up with major lows, but then gold and silver become a “long-term investment” once they are crushed in price.  We will have to wait until 2022 when solar cycle #25 starts to poke through the sun’s northern latitudes,  you don’t want a bearish bone left in your body when the poles on the sun start to flip. Solar cycle upswings act like bear market terminators. It would also be a good time to start a business, as you will have the power of the sun at your back!

Hits: 9

Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Phase Review

 

Several weeks ago the commercial traders changed into a net long position with gold which was the first time this happened since the late 1990s.  I had to move my Primary degree “A” wave bottom to late 2015 which is back about 2 years and 8 months. This is another example of time traveling on paper as my old wave positions had me late or behind by 2.8 years! One wrong large degree can put us off by 100’s of years, if we do not know what that 2011 gold peak was.

The 2011 gold peak  was a Gold/Silver mania peak that comes along once every 30 years + or – 1 year!  Anybody with time to kill and a calculator can check these numbers by going back 90 years or going formward 90 years. 90 years make up 3, 30 year cycles, from 1980 forward. 2041 would be the year of the next SC degree wave 3 peak, which will never happen until the price of gold  gets crushed in the next 2-3 years. $1160 in gold had a strong spike to the downside which may hold and deserves attention to make sure it will hold.

I mentioned it many times that gold could soar to that $1800 price level, but it sure will not soar $1000 like I said it might do. Now it would only soar $640-$650 to get to the same price target.

My triangle in the “B” wave stays exactly the same as I still need the higher degree change before it happens. If the $1160 price level holds it would be a running pattern for sure. I don’t believe in truncated patterns as I see all of these as running patterns. Even if gold started out and developed a 5 wave structure, it could also be a triangle inside the “B” wave.

We had the Death Cross in a daily chart but the Golden cross is still active in gold. In the weekly charts and the 50-day MA may not cross golds  200-day MA and even provide support for the next leg up in gold.  Gold is still in a bear market rally as no Cycle degree correction has completed in gold at this time. It’s pretty sad when we can’t see the 2011 peak as a maina peak as all the numbers read “extreme” back in 2011. Bubbles do not end well and gold has been brainwashing us as it has not yet completed the mania bear market by a long shot.

It may take until 2022 before the real bottom in gold will arrive, after the gold price is “CRUSHED”! Only when an asset class is crushed in price does it become an investment and until then I will only trade the 5 wave moves.  It takes me about 15-20 minutes of work at night and I can be completely in cash by first opening before I get out of bed. At the same time I can execute some long positions in GDX  but in small increments of 100 shares each time. Some 5 cent call options will help the share count if we only have 400-500 share long positions. 25 calls are about equal to adding 2500 shares to a trade.  Option failure depends on how you use them and how you handle the loss once they expire worthless.

It looks like if this $1160 price holds, then gold below $1047 will not happen and then $1400 gold will get breached. Once $1400 gets breached, I lose my 10-ounce silver coin. That’s ok, as I had some PUTs out, that coverd the loss of a 10 ounce silver coin. I also cashed in 20 October puts to cover the risk of all my options going to zero.

So far in the last 12 months I have enjoyed a 92% gain in my printouts, and I would be happy if that happened again on the long side.

Remember, that the gold price has nothing to do with printing money, it has to do with the “velocity” of the money in the economy. This velocity can increase with seasonal spending like for Halloween and Christmas shopping or January RRSP spending. Long term the velocity of money is going to decrease on a massive scale as 10,000 boomers are retiring every single day for the next 19 years!  What will happen to the stock market once the pensioners have to cash in, I don’t think I will be “investing” if my cane can’t beat my mouse anymore!  🙄  All those boomers retiring will strain the private and government pension plans to the extreme, if not fail completely. Longer term deflation is the real threat, even when gold makes another strong showing.

Even my IWA pension plan, or the Ontario Teachers Union pension plan will see some hits that are hard to imaging at this time.

Hits: 26

Gold Daily Chart Update

 

When we notice a pattern as choppy as gold was during 2017 and early 2018, then this is telling us that gold is traveling up when the bigger trend is down. I counted out the triangle in gold with more detail this time as I will not keep filling in the sames positions over and over again. The only way we can have a triangle in a 5th wave decline is in a diagonal set of 5 waves. Triangles also send out a clear warning that once they are completed, I must increase my wave degree by a minimum of 1 degree, and even 2 degree levels at certain times.

The 2017 peak was an Intermediate degree peak, so gold must exceed the 2017 peak by a wide margin, ($1375). We would be on a Primary degree run, specifically a “B” wave in Primary degree.  Three big moves in Primary degree is in our gold future, and it would be best to talk about that when I update GDX!

We did get a strong spike down to the $1160 price level, but that support price will not hold, which makes the $1120 price level the next target to get hit. Once gold gets below $1120 there is only one leg of a bar stool that hasn’t cracked yet. Three cracked legs will not hold the heavy gold bullion owners, and the $1047 gold price level will confirm without a shadow of doubt, that gold was just in a bear market rally.  If an Intermediate degree bear market rally can fool the majority of investors, then a Primary degree “B” wave bullish top will really fool them again.

The anticipaded “B” wave gold bullish phase will also be the last time that we can sell bullion into a mania peak, because it will not be until 2041 when SC degree wave 3 in gold arrives. Yes, 30 years between gold mania peaks which nobody expects, but it will produce some of the best trading we can do for the rest of our lives.

The Gold Death Cross was at $1300 with this daily chart, and the weekly chart Death Cross is still to come.

Hits: 8

Silver Daily Chart: $13 Price Downside Break-Out!

 

The majority are all hypnotized by gold, and ignore silver and even gold stock ETF’s, most of the time. Once this silver futures cash chart crumbles below $13 US, then silver was in a bear market rally and the majority were fooled again. Does the silver chart above look like it’s in a bull market? This pattern is just like gold except it’s a running triangle, and about as bearish of a pattern as we can run into. A triangle in a “B” wave zigzag gives us a warning that when this ends, I must also end on a degree at least one degree higher than Intermediate degree.

A Primary degree bottom, would produce a Primary degree top with the counter-rally. The 2011 peak was a 30 year silver mania peak, not some correction in an ongoing bull market.

Commodities do not  behave like the stock markets as they are connected with large zigzags, and normal wave counting will never work. In hindsight we can see the wedge form, and the downside move it produced. We still have a long way to go, but silver and a few others are leading the way south to warmer weather!  It would not surprise me if silver eventually kissed the $8.00 price level, and we have 4 months to find out.

Silver investors will be crying the blues about this impending silver crash, but shit happens if investors don’t know what bubbles are, or even take the time to learn about bubbles. Back in 2011, Market Vane readings showed 96% bulls present, which is one of the most extreme silver bullish readings ever!  I have documented and posted this, as well as others have done. Market Vane has been around since the 60’s and the majority  don’t even know about it, or even know how to read it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hits: 4

Gold Daily Chart Bear Market Review.

 

I think only watching the gold price is a big smoke and mirror magician act and they are “Bluffing us”.  What we are looking at, is a tringle inside a “B” wave zigzag. This always dictates that I “must” find one higher degree once these 5 diagonal 5 waves are completed. Silver and all gold stock ETFs do not confirm this gold bullish looking pattern. Silver only has to fall another $1.50 and it well be close to a new record bear market low. You can’t have gold in a bull market while silver breaks to new bear market lows. Even some of my gold stock related ETFs are also very close to breaking new record lows, so it’s not just one thing. We had so many bearish warnings that gold was going to implode, but thankfully gold investors ignore all these bearish signs. and technical indicators as well.

The Death Cross on this daily cash chart was at $1300 and the weekly Death Cross is still to come.

Even the gold hedge funds and the commercial traders have net short positions on gold. This is a bit rare but it has happened before.  Eventually the hedge funds will get into a really big bear trap and that’s when this gold market will reverse and soar north again. Printing money has nothing to do with the price of gold but it’s the velocity of any money that does drive the price of gold.

Gold hit a 30 year record high in 2011, which was a “mania peak”, not some silly correction in an ongoing bull market. Commodity crashes don’t end with some flimsy bottom but they end in a far more violent nature.  Bear market rallies “Always” retrace their entire bullish moves back down to and below the point of orgin. It seems the gold bullish wave analysts have turned a bear market rally into a bull market,  as they are all confinced that gold will still break above $1400 this year!  Good luck with that, as it seems that gold investors are following those wild bullish wave counts, which I always bet against. We can tell if we are on the wrong side as our bullish positions refuse to perform the way a bull market should.

Presently we are in a Minor degree “C” wave decline and is just about the smallest 5 wave sequence I will bet on, provided my account can handle it. There are about 3-4 ETF’s that track this gold futures cash chart very well. I’ts when they contain Options is when the patterns go insane. I’m starting to love options but will not know how much until the end of this year when all my PUTs must be closed off.

I have heard it many times how the majority of Options expire worthless, but this all depends in how we use options! If the majority of options expire worthless then it’s not a good idea to use options to chase a market in any direction. One wrong move against you and the options can go to zero and never recover before expiration date.

I will not give out details of my options trading until all PUTs are closed off, and I’m starting to build calls or take long positions in GDX or GDXJ.  I have 2hr lunch meetings with my buddy and he has taken an options course, which he likes as well. He brought a huge stack of his books, so I told him that he was hired as my Options consultant!   🙄 The fact that we can talk the same options language and work together, is more important than his real world experiences.  Everything I do can be cloned and scaled up with no real limits.

Traders don’t have to make millions as all it takes is a good healthy trading account where you can draw extra cash every year or month from. I would be happier than a littly piggy playing in a pig-pen if sometime by this year end, I cashed out with $89,000 or more!

I have a family wedding barbecue to go to this Sunday and if the weather holds, they can be a lot of fun.

Have a Great weekend!

Hits: 20

Quick Gold Intraday Rally Update.

 

Gold followed through with a push above $1200 again. $1210 seems to be the peak this morning. Since I can count this rally like only 5 waves have developed, then chances are good this counter rally is not completed yet. We could see a severe drop in the price of gold, but then gold can come back hard one more time. Overall the big 2018 summer decline is one single move with 5 waves in Minute degree, which is the tail end of a diagonal Minor degree zigzag crash. It’s also the smallest 5 wave run that I will trade in.

I use GDX and GDXJ instead of gold but will add GLDM when the next big bullish phase comes. This may take all of 2019 as well.

 

Hits: 31

Gold Intraday Rally Update

Last week gold and gold stocks made a single spike to the downside. This is what may happen at a major bottom and is a signal to close some bearish positions. I closed off some PUTs as I plan to have a small group of options come due every month. That crazy decline sure seems to fit into a diagonal 5th wave. Just to get all the gold bulls excited again, it would not surprise me if gold closed above $1200 for a couple of days. At $1215 we have a road block when gold refused to go any higher.

The August sideways move is just a mini version of what gold looks like on a daily chart! If gold traveled up to $1215 then we woud  be looking at another Head&Shoulder bull trap! This run could also end with a spike, and it may take the rest of this week to play out. I would rather give this rally a bit more time than try to get perfect timing at this intraday scale.

The reason for golds rally is that the US dollar is also making a correction in its bull market. The next big downside price target to watch is that $1120 price, as then 3 legs of a 4 legged bar stool, have already cracked.

 

Hits: 9

Gold Intraday Bear Market Update!

Intraday updates might be important for day traders, but I assure readers that I’m not a day trader, nor an investor. In my Cycle degree world only 4 degree levels have any importance at all. Minor, Intermedeate, Primary and Cycle degree. It is any big 5 wave sequence in Minor degree or more where all the money is being made. We can’t make any money, as we can only work for it and earn it. Get real gains mixed up with any unrealized gains will not work as well. Any trade can be up 300%, but we don’t make a single dime until that position is close off.

Gold ended on a very nice little spike to the downside which was followed by a counter rally fairly quick. This rally may still have some to go, but eventually the bearish gold trend will return. Once a trend takes hold, nothing will stop that trend until it’s draws to its final conclusion. This Primary degree bottom in Gold could end up between $700-$800 USD, which puts gold at the same bottom as 2008 was. Even if gold hits $691 it would not be a problem, as that would give gold a little more than a $100 window to reverse in. It still would take the rest of the year or even to late November (21st) before we can expect a bottom in the gold price.

When gold declines this much then it is a “CLEAR” sign, that gold is telling us that deflation is happening. Gold has been deflating since the 30 year cycle peak in 2011, along with gold stock ETFs. It may not finish until after, or close to 2021! Of course a huge gold counter rally will get in the way, which I don’t intend on missing as I always work 3 steps ahead of the crowd. Sorry, but only working one step ahead is no longer good enough, as I work on much stricter parameters. I’m only short IAU with a token 100 shares, but all my biggest short positions are with GDX and as of this morning I added a some GDXJ PUTs. All my trading account short positions are in the green and I have no intention of covering any of them until GDX also has it’s downside breakout. Not until all my short positions have been closed off, will I know how much of a new capital base I have to work with. I know what my goals are and I document and even print out different stages of this gold bearish decline. I will give full trading account discloser to my buddy this week, as I have added options into the mix.

Options always expire and go to zero, but any PUT can go to zero the same day you execute! It just about happened to me this week, but it’s no reason to panic, as a week later all these PUTS I have are now in the green!  Green is good in any direction we bet on, but we gain nothing if we don’t execute and capture this “green” 🙂

One single PUT or Call represents 100 shares, so eventually I always want to carry 250 options in any direction. I’m far from that folks, but planning is the key as it has to fit into our capital base as well.

 

Hits: 5

Gold Daily Chart: Fast Approaching $1120!

So far so good, as the gold price keeps heading south. I use the $1120 price level as the third leg of a bar stool, so when it gets retraced there will be no mistake or argument because of little chart differences. If I turn this into line mode, all new prices would appear and even some spikes disappear. I don’t need to fill out any of the intraday Minute degree patterns as I will never be a day trader. The most power comes from a 5 wave sequence rally or decline. In this gold bearish phase I do have a Minor degree move and that is my bare minimum to make it worthwhile to bet short or long on. Thinking that you are one step ahead of the herd, is not good enough in todays world, as I always think, draw and plan 3 steps ahead of the crowd. (A, B, C,) or (1-3-5).

Since the 2011 peak, the gold bear market is in a diagonal set of 5 waves in Intermediate degree, all consisting of connecting zigzags. At the $1360 peak I had a $15 gold window for the entire wave count to go wrong. These connecting zigzag moves must all be labelled, (ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4, and ABC5! ) There is hardly any difference between a diagoanl run and a triangle run except for their locations. In this case the triangle is in the gold Minor degree “B” wave, which also dictates the end, following the bearish 5 wave decline.  Modern wave analysts are calling this “B” wave as a bullish pattern, which is complete nonsense as far as I’m concerned.

When this gold crash ends I will be forced to look for the next higher degree, which will be a Primary degree “A” wave bottom. You never want to be left hanging in a short position when an “A” wave in Primary degree is completing. I have short positions out on GDX and IAU and have no intention of closing off and take early profits before it’s time.

The Death Cross in this daily chart happened at the $1300 price level and gold investors will find out how stupid it is to be invested at the top of a Death Cross! The Death Cross on the weekly chart is still ahead so there is a lot more pain coming for the gold investors.

Hits: 6

Silver 2011-2018 Review

I stretched my weekly chart to 1500, so we can see back to that 2008 crash bottom. The Death Cross has already happened just like it was on a daily chart. I have only used two indicators, Two parrell lines and one 50-200-day MA. We can slice and dice any wave positions, but the fact remains that the 2011 peak was a 30-year cycle peak of a gold&silver mania bull market top. 1980 was the previous 30 year mania peak which also burst producing close to a 20 year bear market in gold and silver.

The wave counting experts ignore silver most of the time becuase they are blinded by the glitter of gold as its charts pointed up,  while silver pointed down. Silver is a better leading indicator where gold is going to go to, than the other way around.  No gold or silver stock ETF confirmed any part of gold’s breakout attempt, which obviously has failed so far. The majority of investors are always wrong at the extremes and if investors think fundamentals will send silver soaring, then they have a nasty surprise coming their way. A Cycle degree mania bubble does not get corrected in a little 4-5 year bearish phase,  least of all with just one soft landing. The correction will still last until about 2021 which would make gold and silver a 10 year bear market!

I’m a small trader not an investor, as I would never knowingly build a heavy long position, when the entire world is sitting on Death Crosses! Below $13 is the big silver number to beat, and will be the price level that confirms the last 2-3 year bullish phase was all a smoke and mirror bull market. The angle of silvers decline should turn steeper as it has done many times before. Silver also has a tendency to slice through any Fibonacci support even if it may be just for a short time peiod.

Deflation is the real threat folks, as we come off this hyped up, pumped up world of inflated prices. What most silver investors don’t know is that the world population fertility rate is crashing and has been crashing, as the major boomer populations start to die off in record numbers. Dieing boomers are “Permanent Sellers” of real estate, with smaller and smaller new generations being born following every stock market crash.

I’m very bearish on this market until I see that a major support price level has been reached! The 2008 crash low or a bit lower, is where we should expect for all this to settle. By that time all my short positions will be closed off, with an impending huge bullish phase during 2019! This will also be a big fake, or bear market rally, and it will be the very last chance for metal investors to unload at near a bubble top.

Conventional wave counting will not work in the commodities world commodities are connect together with huge zigzags lasting over 40 years. Our next zigzag decline is far from over and this fall may only be part one of a 3 part move. (A, B, C,) in Primary degree.

Hits: 22

Gold: Looking Back A 1000 Days!

I have what is called a “custom bar” setting, which is just the amount of days I can look back. Normally I always use 500-day settings, but this time I doubled that to 1000-day settings. I use about 5 major indicators which the 50-200-day MA is just one that I use from the conventional world of  technical analysis. I also drew in the rising wedge I used many times and the bottom trendline sliced right through the Death Cross perfectly. There were many warning signs at the top as gold could not work past the $1360 price level. I had a $15 gold window where this zigzag rally would be busted!

I’m short IAU which is a gold metal tracking ETF. GLDM is new and I will track it as well. Once a trend change has taken hold then nothing on this planet will stop it until it comes to its final conclusion. Any bullish move that is acually in a bear market rally must eventually completely retrace itself, back to its point of orgin, and lower. $1200 is another potential support price level that should get breached. This would only leave 2 more to go before investors fear factor start to rise. Remember, there are sell stop orders down below the void! Every ETF has sell stops below as well.

We had the Death Cross at this scale already and others will follow. I hope I never get caught in a bullish trap as I took a big enough hit on losers already. All my short positions are in the green, except for USO and that is only a few percentages down.  I have three sets of PUT options out on GDX, but they turn red as soon as you put them on.

Two different sets have already flashed in and out of green, so I consider that a good sign. When I close all my PUTs, then I will see what I can use for the big trip back up.

Sure,we still have 4-5 months to go, but at the end it could go so fast, that if traders are not ready for it, they will miss it. Missing a major bullish or bearish run is losing money. It’s worse if your also caught on the wrong side of the trade. For the last part of the year, your going to see how many bullish gold investors are going to get hit.  You will read headline after headline how investors are getting fleeced as all markets start to crash.

I just got a fresh copy of the Market Vane report and none of it suggests that gold is going to the moon anytime soon. In fact it all points the opposite way.

Folks, we are at a major price bubble never before seen in history in all asset classes. This cannot continue and the markets will implode in a deflationary bear market that the majority will never see coming.

At this time my bet is that gold and the markets are going to sync up, but it may take the rest of this year to see it happen.

Hits: 16

Silver Monthly 1980-2018 Review

 

When we look back to the 1980 30 year silver mania peak, and compare it to our 2011 30 year mania peak, silver barely broke a new record high. Both peaks had a ridiculous forecasts associated with them, as the were calling for $200 silver in 1980 as well. If any wave analyst tries to count this out without Diagoanl Wave counting knowledge, then it will never work to ever make enough money to sustain a home based trading business. Gold and silver investors all believe that the next leg up in silver is going to blow all the bears out of the water and that their investments are going to pay-off.

I’m very confident that the Death Cross will not allow this to happen, as the Death Cross may even supersede all other indicators like the COT reports. The 2001 bottom could also work as a triangle in a “B” wave. One thing is very obvious that the entire silver markets are diagoanl wave structures, which is the norm not the exception in all commodities that I track. In commodaties, any wave analysts must instantly switch to a diagonal perspective, because normal stock market wave counting methods will never work. From the 30 year 2011 cycle peak, the decline is just your standard 5 wave diagonal decline, which are all connected with zigzags. Flats are a rarity in digaonal waves structures, but connecting zigzags rule!

The 1980 peak was a 30 year “A” wave peak in Primary degree, as the 2011 peak ended with the “C” wave in Primary degree. Missing any “C” wave in any direction, Minor degree or higher, is not an option anymore, as missing a major “C” wave bull market is where all the money is always made in   the first place.

Since the 2011 silver and gold peaks, both have a zigzag bear market in Primary degree to look forward to, which should be finished close to the 2021 time period. Three years of investor hell, but a smart traders 3 year dream come true!  Time is money, and if you get this market wrong then you actually lose double as much. We lose being on the wrong side, and we lose because another shorting opportunity has been lost. Only knowing how to bet long, means that you are running the EWP at only 50% efficiency, but that rate would jump by 100%, once we incorporate short selling into the mix.

I would be crazy to carry any long positions on the top of a Death Cross, as the Death Cross signals a big longterm downtrend still to come. The Death Cross has been used since 1929 helping the smart investor to escape the 1929 stock market crash, unscathed. For the last 3 months the 50-200-day MA has been incorporated into my wave positions as a permanent tool to use at major turnings. I’m working on about 5 of these tools that I post publically, but my in-house tools are only reserved for my most trusted paid clients.

You may never see another Minute degree wave positions counted out, as I only need all Minor, Intermediate, Primary, and Cycle degree peaks to build up a good cash base for a home based trading business. For my personal account, that magic number would be anything better than $89,000 USD cash!

Silver may have a $2 window at the bottom, which gives us little room to work with. SIL would be the silver miner stock equivilant, and it’s still heading down as well.

Commodities do not make soft landings folks, but they sure can end with a lot of violence in both directions. Silver under $13 US is the price to watch as below that number will confirm that sillver was just in a bear market rally.  Silver also had a traingle in its “B” wave so that forces my wave positions to end on at least 1 higher degree, which is Primary degree. Every 5th wave peak, “must always be capped” at all degree levels, and when I see so many analysts ignoring their 5th wave peaks, then I instantly know they are lost in their own wave counts.

The biggest deflationary decline is coming as the US dollar is in a far bigger bull market of Grand Supercycle degree. (GSC) It will be all the major corrections during this US dollar bull market, that will send silver and gold soaring and crashing.  Not until gold and silver has been crushed in price, will it be a good investment again like it was in 1950 and 2000.

Getting a 30 year bubble mixed up as just a continuation of a bull market, is the biggest mistake we can ever make. I could scream it all from the top of a building and the response would be, “Well, you never know”.  That response is normal from people that refuse to do any work at all in improving their analytics.

 

Hits: 5

Gold Intraday Decline Update

Gold investors sure have the nerves of steel when they can see thier investments slide like this. Sooner or later they will throw in the white towel and then capitulate. On the daily charts there is a void below which is all peppered with stop-loss sell orders. The pros know how to trigger these stops, so they can fall in a domino fashion.  Gold could stay well inside these channel lines and just keep heading south for the rest of the summer. I know one thing and that is, that this angle of trend line will not remain as usally they drop in a vertical fashion before they finish. These types of waves can also produce gaps so if one happens, it will not surprise me.  At the same time any gap does open up, then the odds increase dramatically by 90%, that this gap will get filled on the way back up. Once $1120 support gets taken out then there is only one support leg left before gold crashes below $1047. You’ve seen the westerns where they lynch people and just kick out the entire stool.

Gold/Silver has finished a 30 year mania peak in 2011, and its correction is far from over. I think we are fooling ourselves if we believe that gold can only have a soft landing and then soar again. The soaring will come, but not until late fall or early 2019 as at that time gold could soar a $1000 dollars, back to $1700-$1900.

I do not need to fill in any Minute degree waves as I only need Minor, Intermediate, Primary and Cycle degree peaks to trade my entire Cycle degree crash in gold.

We are coming of one the most inflated periods of our times and this will not end well, for those that are holding assets for investments like real estate.  I trippled my custom bars to 1500, and what you see above is the 50-200-day MA, which crosses more frequently. I will try and track it like this for a little while, but usally 500 custom bars is my normal setting.

We had a quick Golden Cross and then right back into a Death Cross. The next sequence would be a Golden Cross, which could also be over and done with in a short  period of time.

Once a trend is set, nothing will stop it until it’s final conclusion, which could be gold $700-$800 by the end of the year. My buddy and I are in full planning mode for the bottom as the trip down is already in action and I don’t intend on changing it. I’m working on how options can work in the mix, but I’m a bit rusty and can easily goof up.

Remember one important thing about options, and that is never ignore an option that has gone to zero, as that option could spring to life on the very last day of expiration, and you better have your finger on the trigger during that day. I have a trader that had puts out on cattle, and it went to zero alright, but on the very last day it burst to $3000 USD and he manged to cash it in right at the last day, after his broker called him.

 

 

 

Hits: 5

Gold Daily Chart: $1120 Second Last Chance to Turn Into A Raging Gold Bull!

Gold’s little rally didn’t last to long  as it seems gold has resumed its downward trend. From the 2011 peak the pattern I have been working  is what I call a diagoanl 5 wave sequence, not a a 5 wave impulse sequence. Zigzags are king in the commodities world and gold is no exception in containing zigzags. Since I need a zigzag in this 5th wave, the choppy wave structure you see is a  “triangle” inside a “B” wave correction. This triangle is extremely important as it forces me to have one higher degree position ready, when gold has finished crashing, by later this fall. Gold $1120 leaves only “one” support leg left before it to crumbles in the dust!

Majority of wavers have twisted a bear market rally into a bull market, which is completely wrong, and those bullish wavers are going to cause you to take massive losses. These wavers have never been certified by EWI, and it seems they can turn water into wine as well. The miracle of laying down smoke and mirror BS seems to be a speciality in modern wave analysis.

If you haven’t figured it out yet (see the gold crash coming) then gold investors and gold bugs will suffer huge loses, and I won’t shed a tear. Most wavers don’t even recognize a gold mania bubble has burst back in 2011, they think its just an on going bull market correction. Gold finished a 30 year mania peak which will not get repeated until 2041.

The world is being setup for a massive deflationary crash of Cycle degree magnitude, which will take everything down and crush all rich investors to where they turn into shoeshine boys. I will not shed a single tear over the rich investors that think investing at the peak of a the bigest inflationary bubble of all time. Over and over the news will tell us how investors are suffering huge  losses, and it is the main reason I will never become an investor but only a trader.

folks, the exact same setup as in the 2008 top are being setup now, except now it will take much longer and gold will crash along with all other assets, escpecially real estate! Facebook is just a little opening shot, as it is going to get much worse by the end of this year. This time we will get a huge relief rally that could send the gold price soaring $1000 back up to the $1700-$1900 price range. This is a $200 window which could happen by summer 2019.  I’m short this market and the bearish forces will be the wind on my back when the $1047 price level gets breached.  If your gold stock invesment is not doing what you “hoped”, then chances are very good you are on the wrong side of the trade!

Hits: 17

Gold Weekly Chart Death Cross Review

Look back uptothe 2011 peak which is a 30 year cycle mania peak. it’s not a simple correction but it will be a full blown gold crash which noone alive today has ever experinced. The 2008 crash was just and example of what we are going to get. For the 2011 peak I now show a “Y” wave in cycle degree.  All the modern wave analsyts should instantly know the wave pattern this “Y” wave top will produce.  This “Y” wave top dosen’t change my short term or long range forecasts one bit, as it will stay exactly the same.

This “Y” wave crash has to produce another zigzag which is what I have, then the bottom must be an “X” wave. Gold at the $1300 daily chart level already had it’s first Death Cross. The weekly chart has already shown us gold below the 200-day MA so it is just a matter of time before another support leg crumbles. At gold $1100 there would only be a window of $52 at best, for this so called bull market to turn. Once gold cut through the $1047 price then the game is up as all gold investors were in a bull trap.  Speculators are still in a bull trap so there will be more gold selling for sure.  Banks in their infinate wisdom were buying gold above $1300 , so once gold support is broken then, they will get in a panic as well as the gold price plunges. GLD and IAU will have to join in on the selling to cut back their share count as well.

So here gold sits with two more Death Crosses to come below present prices. Folks, the whole world is invested at the top of Death Crosses across all commodaties and stock exchanges so this is not a a good bullish sign for gold. The inflationist are getting it all wrong as the gold price has nothing to do with money printing. It’s all about the volocity of any money that produces inflation. Shopping for school suplies can cause inflation and christmas shopping sure can get the velocity of money moving.RRSP season in the spring will increase the volocity in the spring.

We are in a massive world real estate bubble never before matched in history and all the rich people holding 2 or more homes will get killed in a massive real estate crash and deleveraging process that goes with it.

Every gold bull and every gold bear will be watching these two sets of prices. The $1400 price for the big bullish breakout and below $1047 the gold bears will be proven right. I have many people I know that are also whatching this happen from their iPhone apps.

There is a time to invest in gold and then there is a time to trade it, and investing on top of a Death Cross is not my idea of investing, that’s financial suicide.

Everything I have been saying is still on track and needs no further adjustments.

 

Hits: 79

News Flash! Gold Bear Spotted!

If you ever want to see a visualization of  our present gold bear about to attack, then this is it! He has his sights on the fish, which represents our present day gold investors. I’m sure there are many gold bugs that the salmon has been eating so this gold bear gets an appetizer to boot.  One slash with his right claws, into his mouth and this fishes head is chopped off!

If you are not a contrarian or take a contrary outlook in the gold market, then you will become a victim just like the fish!

 

Hits: 12

Silver: Last Chance To Still Be In A Bull Market

 

We are getting very close to another downside move to a point where silver must turn and soar, if it still wants to destroy my bearish wave positions. Silver is $ 2.35 away from breaking all new bull market record lows. So when silver does fall below $13 then it was just in a bear market rally, and the mass of silver bugs were in a bull trap.

From the 2016 August peak and then down to that late 2016 bottom, was a Diagonal set of 5 waves, which the gold wavers called a zigzag correction. It’s just a triangle in a “B” wave, and a running “B” wave to boot.

Here is a COT report on silver  which still has the commercials in a bearish mood, while the small traders and big speculators are bullish.  Commercials are close to the core silver business and have the least amount of risk when they hedge. Speculators are the animals as they go wild chasing anything that moves in any direction. Their not in much of a bull trap right now,  but that can still change in a very short time.

Hits: 7

2011: Gold Mania 30 Year Cycle Degree Wave 3 Top!

What the majority of gold investors don’t have a clue what a bear market rally actually is. The last thing they understand is that the peak of 2011 was a gold mania peak. Yes I said a gold mania peak, with a Cycle degree wave 3.  Manias do not end well, and they sure don’t end with a soft bottom like gold has done.  I have tried to explain this to gold investors and they pretty well give you the middle finger and tell you to piss off! They are convinced a bull market correction is over and another leg up is going to happen.

All my wave positions  in gold and gold stock ETFs are working wave counts, where there is real money being use to test this wave count.  Even for Cycle degree gold O have tons of technical readings that do not confirm that any bull market is set to take of. A stupid forecast (at this time) would be for gold to reach $2225 on this leg up.!

They have bee forecasting a $2000 gold price for 50 years, and it still hasn’t happened. It may take until 2041 before this forecast comes true.

If you are still a fire breathing gold bull, and believe all the crap you hear about a gold correction finishing.  Then I will tell you that gold could go the opposite way and crash $500 to below $800.  $800 has always been major support, so I don’t get it that they think a single flimsy price bottom is going to enhance their life!  There is the time to invest in gold and there are times when gold turns into a traders world. Good gold bear trader will love this market for the next three years. By the end of this year gold will only be at stage 1 of a bear market, followed by an extremely volatile and soaring gold price that could make a $1000 run .  Who will be the most nimble to catch this super run in gold! It will not be the investors as the traders are far more nimble even if they carried huge positions. There is a huge difference betting 100 shares of say GLD, than 100 futures contracts. I don’t know the price of a 100 ounce gold contract, but I bet a reader can figure out what 100 gold contracts will cost.  All this time the short player, “one who bets on the markets to go down, will enjoy his shamrock green while the gold bulls who are still holding, are seeing a sea of red.

Investors don’t see a crash when they already own gold, so a bear market rally will fool the majority all the time. The market will always turn its back on investors so it can do the most damage. This market does not allow us to be complacent as a huge deflationary crash is on its way. Part one of this crash you can watch on the 6 o”clock news by this fall.

There are three stages to unwinding a gold bubble, and this fall will only be the first stage, with two more stages to go.

Fundamentals will always give you the wrong information at the extremes, and I repeat that when I hear some analysts recite fundamentals justifying a bull market.

All the analysts were bearish on gold in 1999 as they were all selling, Market Vane was at 14% bulls, presently at 34% bulls. This needs to drop dramatically before we reverse. My weekly Market Vane report does not confirm any gold bullish outlook. And I’m sure the speculators have to turn fully bearish, before this ends. It is the speculators in the COT reports that are the most helpful as they always get trapped in a trend. When it turns, they get into panic and end up dumping gold. They dumped 700 tonne of gold this year already.

The most important thing you have to be aware of and that is, that the space of nothing below the $1047 gold price there is teaming pool of “SELL” orders. They are not buy on the dip orders, as it would take a very experience gold trader to catch a falling knife. I have traded futures in Gold,Oil and US dollar back in 2006, so I do sympathize with them all the time. Earning a good green payload and dumping it in your trading account feels great, but many times we can’t keep this cash hall, and next thing you know your living with the guys on East Hasting Street.

If we got a $100 gold “gap” down would not surprise me at all, and actually I would welcome it, as it will scramble the gold bulls mind, figuring out in what just happened.

 

Hows this wave count in gold enhance your life? This is the crap that people read thing he knows what he is doing, after all you have to have a bullish wave count in a bull market!  The fact this wave count has already been trashed making it worthless wave count dumped into the digital hell.  I would bet 2 Silver Stones against this guy any day of the year and come out smelling like a rose.  This waver sees the $1050 bottom as a Primary degree 4th wave bottom so he is so far off from the real count that this guy will do more damage to you than you can imagine.  You missed another good chance to play short so you missed out on those gains, and missing out is a loss just the same.

Only able to bet to the long side,we are only running at a 50% efficiency rate at best.

 

 

Hits: 14

Impending Palladium Crash 1980-2018 Elliott Wave Update!

I ask you is this palladium pattern something you should invest in or trade up and down with futures trading. I have to check for the ETF to see if there is one to sell short on. The daily chart has also produced the Death Cross with another well below us on this chart. To be long (bullish position) at the top of this pattern is financial suicide as far as I’m concerned. Since the 1980’s this entire bull market just kept on going, and going, and going, until a little while ago as it seems to have turned a corner already.

How does a $600 Palladium crash work in your investment world?

Pure and simple folks, all commodities “must” be counted from a diagoanl perspective, otherwise what I say makes no sense, and your trades will suffer from performance issues.

When we only go long we are only running at 50% efficiency, so that can be massivly improved by knowing  how to go “short” and “long” when the opportunity arises.

All commodaties run as connecting zigzags, and I feel more and more comfortable in seeing them and counting them out. Like I said I have the largest collection of diagonal wave sructures on this planet and here is another one. Every wave position must be confirmed and wave count maintained and I don’t have the time if the gold market is going to go nuts.

Always remember that the void below our present palladium prices are filled with “SELL” orders as protective stops!

 

Hits: 20

Gold: Cycle Degree 5.0 Eats Investors For Breakfast!

 

In the last week or so my Cycle degree opinion got raked over the coals because of my believe that we are still completing a bottom. I have in that situation many times and I will cover it more down the page.  We are in once in “every” 30 years type of a gold market that will not repeat itself until 2041, and 2071, and 2101!  I think it is imperative that those that follow any EWP understand that some major wild swings are ahead, not trying to be obnoxious, I already have my zigzag impressed into my mind like a picture.  I personally do not need to show one wave position anywhere and I will still trade it, using all my best experiences, to get into a major bottom successfully.

Gold traders and investors don’t mix at all as it is the gold “investors” and stock market “investors” that are going to get slaughtered. Traders don’t lose money in a market crash, we are riding it down and will enjoy some profits as all those waiting for a gold bullish move are going to lose twice as much. Once because the loss of the gold price, and their net worth , second because they wasted another extremely good opportunity as well.

At this point gold has taken out support #1 and is heading down with a little spike, this is what the bottom may look like so you are getting a sneak preview of later this year.

I will not be buying gold trading assets but will stick to GDX and GDXJ as my gold bullion replacement. Besides the gold ETFs will be the first to let us know that a top is coming.  (gold/Gdx ratio) All those that are holding gold stocks because their advisor got them “into” gold, thinking they are looking for wave 5 in Primary degree to unfold.

Being out by only “ONE” degree wave analysts will be out by a mile. Because investors continuously suffer losses in crashes, I will always be a trader at heart. The reason I became a traders is because I suffered severe loses by the hands of investor advice or suggestions in the first place.

My focus is going to be on gold for the rest of the year as shorting is one of my favorite of not missing an opportunity.  With a few more people joining this Cycle degree wave 4 in gold will be continuously tested with real money and GDX.  Any futures traders must do the same thing as with gold future you can bring in astounding “green” returns.

Gold investor are parked on a Death Cross and the daily cross has already arrived and gone. We can see the little knife edge peaking out from the pack and by the time gold falls below $1045 the gold investor will be freaking out as billions will be wiped of the books in a flash. So far so good as my USD short positions will keep riding the gold bear down, and then up again into late spring of 2019. The 2011 peak in gold is not some flimsy Primary degree top, it is a Cycle degree wave 3 top and it’s correction and bear market is “FAR” from  finished. The last thing I want is to see, is my readers get hurt because I didn’t see a $500 gold crash coming.

This Cycle degree zigzag crash I have visualized in my mind, is the same as the one that Robert Prechter counted out in his video.  I see all these Death Crosses forming and I have warned three of my relatives already so they can watch it on the 6 o’clock news channel. Things are going to get ugly fast as the entire world is concentrating on that $1050 support for gold. I do not bet my future on a fricken flimsy “price”, as any real bottom was always $800! Investors are going to find out the hard way and I will not lose a tear drop for their losses!

I have tons to cover and some more trading detail to explain so we can have  good bottom entry with GDX. Everything I say can just be cloned or scaled up for any different capital base, but with $5000 USD being the bare minimum to start with for the Plan “A” trade setup.  I have been waiting for this since the 2011 top as it is my type of a market, wild and crazy!

Hits: 12

Gold Daily Chart: Falling Gold Bulls!

 

I wasn’t going to post this due to some guy laying a claim to his wave count. This is the typical crap wave counts put out by people that have “NO” clue they have to use diagonal wave counting methods. This wave flipper will be flipping numbers around until pigs fly, and will destroy the follower who wants to trade thinking he is in a bull market. My one year old great granddaughter can paint better than this with her little fingers. Obviously he is painting you a very bullish picture at the same time that a Death Cross has already formed. This wave counter,  has no clue at all that a $500 gold crash coming.  How would like to bet 100 shares on his wave pattern?  This wave count will give you a loss compounded, because you lost another opportunity to trade in the right direction.  You don’t have to agree with anything I post, but I can shred any of these wave counts with ease. This is the crap that is dealt out by people that have “NO” skin in the game, and have never traded an ETF in their life.

The chart above breaks “every” EWP rule under the sun yet this comes from a very popular site. This type of counting is rampant on the internet and they are easy to spot.

I may sound that I’m way overboard, but I’m just sugar coating it for public consumption.  I have full confidence in my work under Cycle degree, that I can shred “ANY” wave count that you will find on the internet. Even if you get 10 people helping you search a wave count for gold, that I can’t find “MAJOR” mistakes in.

One day I will put up a bounty for a flawless wave count, with a 10 ounce silver coin as the prize, but, you must put up a Silver coin if you want to bet!  I have my silver stone bet against the bull market, so when gold breaks below $1047 I win another coin. I will be posting more on this coin as it is great looking and I love the shine.

It may be hard to understand why I’m very bearish on gold and investments but what you see above is a triangle in a “B” wave which the experts call the start of a bull market!  Does this pattern look like nice clean cut 5 wave sequences? No, not on your life.  Gold was fighting against the trend for the entire time, and that is the reason why gold is so choppy.  This gold price bet requires gold to fall below $1047 but from a technical stand point one support leg has already been taken out. The gold bull investors  have already lost, they just don’t know it yet!

I even gave them a 3:1 advantage and I think they will still lose. Everything is still on track and you can see the first part of the falling knife already!  Do you see it coming?

For my readers I will wait until gold falls below my “A” wave and then we only have one more support leg to kick out the golden bull, and the rest will history.

When this happens then news on gold will explode and they start fleeing a sinking ship like rats!

Hits: 5

Silver Weekly And the $13 Crossing.

On quick posts I will not fill in every little fricken wave, as I count during the day all the time with my finger and eyes!  When you see any wave counting analysts fill in every little wave then that wave count is feeding you a bunch crap! I may be nasty about this but I’m sugar coating it for sure.  The gold bulls are ignoring silver and it is just $2.50 or so away from a new bear market low. The magic number is $13 and as soon as silver hits below $13, then the 3 year bull market comes to an  end!  The gold bulls call it a bull market!

I call it a bear market rally and they always have to retrace themselves.  It may take another month and when it does how do you justify silver to go to new record lows and gold soar? Give me a break! It will be silver that will drag down gold. We have a Cycle degree zigzag to go through so silver could hit $8 and when it gets between to the Cycle degree wave 4 low then silver and gold bullion will be in a major Buy&Hold that will last to the next SC degree wave three top in 2041 and 2071, and 2101. $400 for gold.  I can give you the two most important wave positions for gold and silver but I always have to visualize it first for months and then draw it out by hand and white board to make sure it has a very tight fit. 2101 is Submillennium wave 3 top in gold and silver. So you can understand how important it is to test Cycle degree wave 3 as it will be the base for the next hundred years that the younger generation of wave analysts may be able to use.  The 30 year cycle is real and it is so reliable you could set a watch on it.  Mind you it would have to be a grandfather clock!

I have to see my patterns first before I count them out, as wave counting is only the secondary act to confirm what you see.

If the entire crop of wave analyst do not see a bear market rally in silver then it is a good idea to short their views. The market is not always right, as it’s a liar and a cheat, and it will rip you off with it’s mood swings. It is the wording that I use when somebody says that the “markets are always right”

It is the job of Cycle degree wave analysis to become the bullshit detector which I think it does an excellent job.

Hits: 16

Gold Weekly Chart Gold Bulls:0 Gold Bears: 1

I want to be clear that I do not post charts just for public entertainment, my wave counts are “working” wave counts constantly being tested with real money by myself  for sure as I need my EWP style to generate a home-based living trading the gold markets.

Which is better and more accurate to use? A forecast built on pattern recognition or your betting platform based on a single price? Which comes first Price Or The Pattern?

I have done this when they forecast the DOW going to $1000 while I had it going the other way. This scenerio is repeating itself but now it’s doing it in gold.  In my world price means nothing, while pattern recognition is everthing.  The gold bull experts are basing a future bullish gold move on one single price.  How can a wave trader that knows how to carry bigger positions base his future on price? If I bet long in this type of a pattern then my home based trading business would be out of business and  (Broker Bob) “BB” would be siting on the sidewalk with his cup asking for donations.  I have donated a token Bitcoin to a street begger, so you can imagine the look on their faces, it’s priceless.

We have 4 bumps to  take out and when that last $1047 prices gets taken out, I win my Silver Stone. (one 10 ounce pure silver coin) I have even given the gold bulls a 4:1 advantage  and this morning the first bump has been retraced.  Anything below $1200 will now take out the second leg of a barstool, so that leaves the gold bulls sitting on a barstool with only 2 legs left.  Is this where you want to be, wishing for gold $1400!

I will be posting more frequent gold postings and silver coin postings as well but my underlying job is to find the best possible wave positions where I can trust it with larger positions. I have traded gold and USD futures and I trade these ETFs about the same way. Strong positions if you think you are right!

I don’t mind saying it as I find pleasure this time in wiping the smart ass looks on gold bulls faces when gold crashes below $1047. I have about a 1000 share short position and after this morning nothing will be change. I never screw with a trade after it’s done, I do nothing to it because it destroys your efficiency and kills any cost averaging.

I don’t think that people don’t realize that we can increase our Elliott Wave Theoretical Maximum (TM) by 100% when we know and practice selling any market short.

To catch any stunniing move I want to make sure that there is at least one 5 wave sequence in it, and preferably in Minor degree and higher!  We are in an Intermediate degree 4th wave, so this gives us one move left in 5 waves of Minute degree.  I don’t think people realize the compounding nature when we can trade in both directions.

Yes I’m rebuilding a $12000 trading account but if all goes well into the fall then I may end up doubling this number once, “ALL” short positions are closed off.

Look up, somebody has dropped the knife and I’m sorry it slipped out of my hands but I just couldn’t hold it anymore!  Once the flurry of activity increases at the bottom and “ALL” buying is finished then we can relax until well into the spring. (March) Before the top we have to be out of our long gold positions and into the last 5 wave bearish run.  Riding the 5 waves is what my Elliott wave is all about so we can rebuild with much greater speed than the majority can deliver.

 

Hits: 29

Gold Daily Chart: How’s the Death Cross Working For You?

My believe that this gold market is nothing but a bear market rally should continue. We have our first H&S pattern and technically from my perspective,  the market is doing a good job of confirming it. The market will confirm my wave positions and all I have to do is click (Short sell) and sit back and watched it happen. I talked to a few gold bulls and tried to mention to them what a Death Cross was, and I was just laughed at.  They scoffed at the idea that gold even remotely has the chance of falling below $1047. If there is anytime in history how pattern comes before price it is now!

The bullish herd of gold investors are basing their investment decisions and their clients on a little $1050 gold price!   If I keep my readers in this position due to my wave analysis should never be allowed.  We have three more support prices to knock out and that could happen in a blink of an eye.  This morning I shorted GDX with another $300 shares and tried with IAU as well. Sad to say I have reached the limit that my account can handle, so from here on I just let it ride. If you are late to this bear party and are just jumping on the Golden Bear, then as soon as gold falls below $800 then “ALL” short positions should be closed off with the highest urgency.

Until then I will ride the goldden bear and try for another personal best time spent on the back of a golden bear. Well anyone that is testing this market with small 100 shares will know how it feels to have the market have your back as this crash will intensify.

Folks I will “NOT” give you wave counts except for Minor degree or better as this decline may not even give you waves that we can acually see. A long single “C” wave will work for me. Also by not doing this I’m setting a trap for all the phoney wave counters that are out there. If I stop all intricate wave counts for a few months then all you have to do is go out on the internet and see who is still counting this decline. Those wave counters have absolute no money behind their convictions as they have nothing better to do then make little numbers and letters!  Folks, I have a clear Idealized picture in my mind which the market needs to confirm.

We are going in a wild ride that few have any clue about in what’s coming. The staunches gold investor will not budge so all I have to say is then “go down with the Golden Titanic”.

I have a 10 ounce silver coin bet on this direction of gold and as soon as gold crosses $1047 I will win another 10 ounce silver coin. I need a few more coins to bet with as they are gret looking coins I love.

My CAD short positions have cranked up a brighter “Shamrock Green” with only one still in the red. (drawdown red) So that sure helps to confirm the direction.

I will mention it early but when this market reverses dramatically then at any top between $1700 and $1900 could get hit but when that happens remember that the year 1919  was the beginning a major silver crash and bear market that lasted 13 year before it bottom in 1932-33. I do not ignore big cycles as they are the key in understanding gold. What we are seeing in the gold market today comes along once in 30 years, so if I have a hot wave count I must take advantage of it.

In the next 3 years this wild gold price swings is my type of market where I feel most comfortable in.  Those who are not ready now will be ready as even a small $5000 USD account will be good to start with. My present day allotment is about $5000 USD.

This Cycle degree zigzag bear market is already the most real money tested wave pattern in history and with the help of a squad of testers then maybe more people will enjoy

seeing a little “green” as we crash into the fall.  We are falling down a 5 wave sequence, and I will do everything in my power to identify any 5 wave sequence that may come so we can maximize time, speed and efficiency, to extract green form every move we get.  In order to see green in our trading accounts we have to see red first.  No pain No gain!  I will talk about this”red” many more times as they are not losses until you take them.

I can tell you that this situation is looking just like early 2008 and I caught that falling knife with a position in GDX. It is one of the most memroable trades in my life and it made a good impression on me that will last the rest of my life. I want a few people to share the same experince and I will do everything in my power to see that you feel it too. You will never go back and do it another way.

In the 2008 market crashed I warned by big sister that what was going to happen in the fall of 2008 and explained it in detail as best as I could. After the crash did happen she confirmed I saw it coming all the way.

My big sister knowsthat I’m a traders invoved with gold so I told, her not to worry at all as I would get wiped out but may even prosper in this market crash. I reinforce this to her several times and it calmed her down. Now she is going to see the same thing again with the wild swings in gold. Only until the bottom arrives that she might tell me I was right.    If I think I see a crash coming with my Elliott Wave, then I will do everything in my power to mention it to my family and close freinds.

 

Hits: 9

Silver Weekly Chart 2011-2018 Update.

The silver bulls think that silver is in a bull market, yet all my best wave counts and indicators like the Death Cross tell me an opposite story. The sideways decline in silver is doing the opposite of what gold has done and at this point, silver only has to fall about $2.90 and it will break to new record lows. Below $13  silver will have confirmed that this so called bull market is nothing but a fake, or a bear market rally. All bear market rallies retrace themselves and have been doing that since the 2011 top. We are in a 5 wave decline and we are not finished by a long shot. A crash of more than $3.00 will end all this silly debate between those who can tell what a bear market rally is and those that can’t. The majority will never want to take the time to learn. Every single counter rally in this silver bear market is just a mini bear market rally and they all have been completely retraced. Each mini bear rally attracted the gold bulls back but their bullish views were quickly dashed as being wrong!

Folks the majority always get fooled and in the case of the 2016 top they are getting fooled by an Intermediate degree rally!  If they are so easily fooled then a huge silver “B” wave bull market in Primary degree will fool many more.  Are you ready for silver to crash to $8.00 because if your not your going to miss the biggest counter rally in silver that you have seen since the 2011 peak. I’ve been actively planning my future bull ride already with my friend but I will use GDX for that.

What we see above is called “Waiting” for the trade to come to me, as everyone else chases bull markets which I never do. When you chase a bull market your too late already and those that are late will already have missed huge gains. We had a huge Death Cross and then a Golden Cross and then several little crossings which should end with a small Death crossing when silver plunges. In the weekly chart this looks much worse, and I for one see silver as a short bet not a long bet. I would “NEVER” knowingly park my bullish positions on-top of a Death Cross. When you do your are going to suffer huge losses very quickly when the bottom gives out.

The world is going to deflate when the big one hits so no gold, Silver or oil can handle that and they will suffer the same fate as the markets. This has all happened before in the 20o8 crash, where everything crashed together in a deflationary spiral. 2018 is also a very special year for earth as it hits it’s 30 year cycle, of slowing rotation.

This rotation slowdown they say will cause massive earth quakes as the earth twists and turns. The metals all run on this cycle as major peaks are 30 years apart. Cycle degree wave 5 will not finish until 2041 and I still need to work on what the price of silver will be by that time. Short answer is $89 for silver!  In gold Supercycle degree wave three will be about $2225.

I also use the 100 year cycle as a forecasting tool. I time travel back to 1919 and look forward. 1919 was the peak of a major silver bullish phase so being long at that time would shred all our gold and silver investments.  Some of the greatest shorting opportunities are also going to come, so if you can only bet one way then you are running at 50% efficiency or less.

I look for high-efficiency trades for myself and my friends and they are found in 5 wave runs. Looking for trades that will contain any Minor degree 5 wave run should never be missed as they can be great winners if you can ride the bull!  The object is to find your personal best in a single trade and then try and beat it. If you try to beat the market it will surely come back and beat you up! 🙂

I’m short gold stock ETFs and have no intention of freaking out and selling in a panic. As long as I have funds in active real money positions, I’m constantly testing my wave positions with real money.

Hits: 34

Gold Intraday: Last Chance To Be A Bull Market!

Well folks, the time is near as we approach the most important price level for gold, and that is below $1236. Just to be on the safe side I use $1234 as the official price failure confirming ig gold is in a bear market or not. Yes we are talking around a $2 window, to confirm this so called gold bull market!  From my Cycle degree perspective, the $1234 crossing confirms that all we had so far was just a bear market rally, and it is only a matter of time when the next price support also fails.

The next price support for this so called “bull” market is $1205.  Just so there is no doubt at all,  I will use below $1204 as the next price level when support fails. We have 4 to go for the entire trip, and the $1204 price level breach would complete two extremely important bull market support levels. Two out of four support failures still needs to get “taken out”, but when gold wants to start rolling down hill, you don’t want to get in it’s way, because from here on the stop loss “SELL” orders are piling up.

If you think the “gold dip buyers” are actually down there, don’t count on it, the gold bulls will turn on you and instantly turn into a bear as they scream “sell” at the hedge funds trading department. The hedge funds already dumped 700 tonne on the market, so do you think they are going to stay long after critical bull market support fails?

Those gold bulls will run south faster that we can think, pushing any retail gold bull out of the way as the gold price keeps crashing.  After the third support price level is taken out, then we are over the 50-50 support breach and the bearish sentiment (BS)  really starts rolling downhill. Then we only have one bull market support left to breach, at the $1047 price level.

After the $1047 price level fails then all argument about gold in a bull market will have failed as well. The implosion of the gold price will be on all the gold blogs and on your local TV news channel.  The gold bears are going to shred the gold bulls and eat them for breakfast, and I for one will be glad that I’m riding the gold bear down with short positions.

The problem with the $1234 crossing is that it leaves a big chunk of waves uncountable, and that you cannot have! It has no home folks, and therefore will destroy every bullish wave count they can dream up!  Those gold bull wave counting buckaroos, will get thrown off and they will use some lame fundamental excuse why their wave count is failing. Being able to bet on the markets going down ( short selling) with real money,  is a far more efficient use of any wave counts. If you don’t know how to “short sell”, then traders are only running at 50% efficiency at best!

About once a month I have a meeting with my friend “JP” who will retire in 2029 (SC Peak) and he knows my work very well. We can tie up a booth for hours and do detail analysis together. He understands the benefits of the ability to sell short any ETF when the time is right. I have 6 short positions out on gold and gold stock ETFs, so there is plenty of evidence that I’m testing my wave counts on a continuous basis. (Without the use of any stops!) I never use stops just like any other contrarian that I know. Shit if I were to use stops I would never be in the game as I would get kicked out all the time.

Much of my planning will be done with GDX , so I will talk more about planning for the biggest “knife catching tournament in gold’s history”!.  🙄

My friend JP is not a dummy he is very detail minded and he will spot major loopholes pretty quick. “JP” is also witnessing a bet I made on the direction of the gold price, no time limit just a very strict price limit. If Gold crashes below $1047 before it crosses $1400, he pays me a 10 ounce silver coin, worth about $242 CAD! If the gold price goes above $1400 then I pay him my silver 10 ounce coin. We have this bet documented which I will let my  friend JP witness.

I can get carried away in a gold post, but shit is going to hit the fan and lots of stuff will happen that nobody will be expecting, especially all those “complacent” gold bull investors.

 

Hits: 6

Gold 1992-2018 Review

Many do not believe that the gold price can crash (deflate) $500 in a year or by this fall, but history tells me that gold can crash $500 and it would just be a walk in the park.

Look back to 1992, when everyone on the planet was bullish on gold. Gold also went sideways for just about the same amount of time. The angle was much later and was much easier to read as a bear market rally. Total retracement confirmed it as a bear market rally.  I can’t confirm bear market rallies only the market can do that.

Any bear market rally must completely retrace it’s entire bullish phase from the point of orgin, by any small amount clearly visible. Charts differe in style so as long as its lower then, the bull market was confirmed as a gold bull trap. I deliberately kept off the little wave positions as there is no need to count it a thousand times. Technically I don’t have to fill out a single wave count until a major bottom has happened.  For the Elliott Wave fan that just loves a challenge look at the bottom of 1999 and you will see a “B” wave in Primary degree. The entire gold bull market was a “C” wave bull market which ended in 2011 at the $1920 price level.

There may be a few that have Cycle degree wave 3 as a top, but you will find nobody with a Primary “C” underneath it.  That harmless little “C” wave has powerful implications for Cycle degree wave 5, that will catch gold investors by surprise. It is the reason for any wild moves this market is going to get. We are in a Cycle degree bear market and we are far from over as this fall we may be just 1/3 of the way through it, which could end by 2021 or so.

The debate continues if we are in a bull market or not, but we don’t need an expert to tell us, when all we need to do is test the market by selling GLD short. Sit back and wait which positions shows you more “green”.  What will happen when you do that is the position will go against you, and you freak out, take a loss, and then GLD plunges leaving you with nothing, and you just missed a further drop in the price of gold.

I have tested many times before, and this time I’m testing the markets down with my short positions. Which will perform better in a potential crash, a bearish trading account or a bullish trading account?  I already tested it to the bullish side and it was a nightmare, so I bailed and took the loss. My Cycle degree wave counts in gold related assets are always being tested with real money, and the only way to stop testing is if I jump to all cash. (Panic Sell)  I will be talking mostly about GDX as my planning stages are in full swing to buy into GDX below $10.89. I will target 100 shares, maybe more. My share counts are geared to about a $13000 trading account, but $10,00o is the minimum you need to start with. Thirteen is also a Fibonacci number!  When you get your account to $21,000 you have made a Fibonacci 61% jump! $34,000 another 61% jump. I think you get the picture. Never retreat! 🙄

This gold market is going to get very violent, with wild swings the likes we have not seen before, and those who are not fully prepared will end up with little.

 

Hits: 58

Gold Intraday Update: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

I warned my friends of a possible gold price meltdown and only a few that know my charts well agree with me. I have small short positions on Gold/Oil related ETFs and have no plans to get out like a scared rabbit!  We are still a few dollars away from retracing #4. That proves that at least one section was just a bear market rally, which does not fit any proper wave count I have ever used. One out of four is soon to be a bear market rally with three to go, You can’t have just one bump out in the open like that.  We are also sitting at the 50-day MA with the 200-day MA. still well below us.  Emotional bullish complacent gold bugs, are sitting on one of the most bearish indicators in our tool box, yet they are oblivious to it, or wish to ignore them.

Gold travels in 30 year cycles and when we count from the 1980 peak and add 30 years we get close to 2011 plus or minus one year. When we add 30 years to 2011 we get 2041 for the next major peak. That would be Supercycle degree wave 3 peak, but it would end with Cycle degree wave 5 having to complete first. After this Cycle degree 4th wave finishes, it could turn into another zizag bull market. I also have a price forecast for gold for that 2041 peak, but I’m not going to post it all the time. Just because I’m super bearish on gold right now, doesn’t mean I eliminate all gold bull markets.

I find gold bugs to in love with there investments as I will have no hesitation in shorting gold if I figure gold is going to crash in a 5 wave sequence.  We still have time but I will trade GDX when the time is right. Right now its a short bet. There is a very easy way to test gold if it’s in a bear market rally or not, and that is to, “SHORT ” GDX with 100 shares or 50 like I have. Then sit back and see what happens by the end of 2018.

Any investor that is willing to trade waves when they arrive should at least have funding of $10,000 in Cad or USD trading accounts and access to US and Canadian markets when they start.

 

Hits: 8

Silver Monthly Chart: Death Cross Countdown!

I have personally dealt more with silver than gold on the street level which I will talk more about later down this page.  Silver is a prime example what a diagaonal bull market and bear market really looks like. The 1980 peak was an “A” wave peak in Primary degree followed by a Primary degree bear market that looks like it could have ended after a running triangle or real bad running zigzag. Diagonals in bear markets distort, so we have to remember that as well. Silver just barely squeaked into a new record high on a “C” wave bull market before,  it to collapsed with the 2011 peak at about the $48 price peak. At the 2011 peak $200-$300 silver forecasts were being made. That is just a regurgitated forecast of the 1970’s so there is nothing new with those two forecasts.

Our bear market in silver is not finished, no matter how much the silver bulls keep insisting it is!  Silver is in a 5 wave diagonal decline and needs a final plunge to land at another “A” wave in Primary degree. In short this is a Cycle degree 4th wave correction containing a zigzag with three Primary degree moves. (A,B,C)  I could have the perfect wave count and the majority will never use it to buy low! I’m sure the public will be freaking out as silver plunges to new record lows. You have to be prepared well in advance and I’ve already been planning for months.

Silver bullish investors do not realize that they are bullish standing on a platform that is about to collapse, and I can scream as loud as I want and nobody will listen.  They listen to the screaming bullish move scenarios first.

During the start of the 2001 bullish cycle we can see a Golden Cross (GC) Crossings are always delayed or lagging.  It’s just a matter of a trigger and silver will implode in price.

 

I have a silver 10 ounce  Canadian Coin that I have used to bet with and I hope silver prices will crash as I will buy some more of these beautiful coins. They are heavy coins but glisten when in the light.  My coin is locked in a bet,  until gold crashes below $1047  The house (friend) pays me a 10 ounce silver coin. If I had more coins I would take on more bets.

All this could take well into the fall to play out, so have patience and let the trade come to you. I never chase a bull market or double down in a bear markets, as those are real emotional acts.

Laying down big shorts after it has turned down will cost you big time with the counter rally and most of the time you end up with nothing or a loss.

We are going to see some extreme price swings and as long as we buy bullion at the bottom of crashes we bring down the average.

Hits: 8