Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Review

My focus is always to link all Cycle degree connections first which I work with 3-degree levels below and 3-degree levels above Cycle degree.

I believe the 2011 peak is a Cycle degree peak and what followed was a bear market decline, ending in 2015 with 3-degree levels. I had 2015 low as a wave 3 bottom but It took far too long to play out, so 2015 becomes the “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.

Higher lows are clearly visible with the “B” wave in Intermediate degree (Red), stopping the gold crash in its tracks, August 2018. ($1160) I bet not too many people remember any fundamental logic about why gold started to soar.

With any wave position its always a reminder so we can never forget where the wave count started from.

I believe a “C” wave bull market is in progress and we still need waves 3-4 and 5 to show themselves in Minor degree.

I will not post every single little wave count as they become irrelevant due to the fact that it’s impossible to find our mistakes. If we just use 3-degree levels and count out 50 positions, then you have a minimum of 150 wave positions that could all be wrong!

In the long run, I see this as a bear market rally and there should be more upside to come.

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Here is An Interesting Wave Count On Gold From Elliott Wave International.

https://elliottwave.com/Metals/The-Pattern-That-Anticipated-4-1-2-Years-of-the-Trend-and-the-Turns-in-Gold

 

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Silver Weekly Chart Bullish Review

Silver has always been a bit different from gold as it seems silver is starting to wake up while gold has already cleared the 2016 high point.  The choppy decline 2016-2018 looks like a triangle in the “B” wave position.

My personal opinion is that silver will not play the catch-up game as the 2011 peak was not much bigger than the 1980 silver peak was!

At a minimum silver should retrace the August 2016 high of about $20.  In the long run that isn’t high enough to fill out a “B” wave top in Primary degree, so extensions will be required.

Silver is starting this impending 5 wave run as a diagonal, so some wild moves will surprise us. Just because silver is going up doesn’t mean it’s in a bull market as bear market rallies can be huge.

Many diagonal patterns turn vertical and we could swear the move is coming to an end, but that has to happen when all the headlines are bullish towards investing in silver.  If fear has anything to do with the silver price rise, then that move can’t be maintained, no matter how much we want the trend to continue.

Silver has to keep produce higher highs which started around November 2018, with a “C” wave bullish phase.

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Gold Intraday Bullish Update

Once I saw gold maintain a corrective type of a move I knew that any bearish scenario would have to be put into the deep freeze for now.

There are three spikes that show but you can ignore them as they don’t show up in Line type settings.

Many contrarians have been calling for a higher gold price and I’m sure the gold wave counters have cranked up their bullish wave counts as well.

The above wave count is about as bullish as I can show you, as this may be part of another zigzag bull run.  This wave count can also be a wave 3-4,  but I like to work with only one option at a time.

Yes, the commercials are net short and it will get worse if the gold price keeps rising.

Regardless what your long term gold price forecast is the entire wave counting community has to decide if this 3.5-year bullish phase is just a big bear market rally?

In the near term and if gold has the legs, then $1600 could be the next price target.

What nobody talks about is that the price of gold is soaring while solar cycle 24 is still crashing!  This is not a good long term picture as the gold price could be repealed down, by the start of solar cycle 25.

It’s still a year or so before solar cycle 25 starts, even though the first official sunspot of solar cycle 25 has already arrived.

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Gold Resistance at $1800?

I changed my wave positions and basically, I’m now looking for a 3-3-5 wave count and if the (A) bottom is real,  then another leg up would certainly happen.

I will only run one wave count in a chart with no other alternates as otherwise, it’s impossible to find our mistakes. Majority of my wave counts are drawn on a printout first, so you don’t want to carry the same mistake to a new chart!

We may still get some corrective action but if this bullish phase is not finished then the gold bulls will shred the early gold bears again.

The big question is if this is just part of a bear rally or the start of a new true bull market!? A “C” wave bullish phase is what we could be looking at and it may last out the summer.

Wide open spaces to $1600 but then $1800 is going to give gold some very stiff resistance.

 

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Gold 2011-2019 Review

Mindless wave counting is not what I like to do, so seeing the gold COT report for the first time can be unsettling. Above, the commercials are in a net short position that we haven’t seen since mid-2018. These are bearish signals that very few people read or even consider to be important.

The large speculators have taken the opposite side which is aligned with the majority bullish consensus. Folks, both groups can’t be right at the same time and history has been on the side of the commercial hedgers.

The media always talk about the large speculators who they think are the smart hedge funds. Speculators are the emotional trend chasers and they consistently paint themselves into a corner, where they become trapped.

When the market moves against the speculators you can bet they will run or dump their long positions as fast as they can.

I have another gold COT chart that came from the May 2016 gold peak when commercials were also in a massive short position. Gold also crashed at that time, after which it started a sideways bearish phase.

I still have too many alternates, and I will not post or show alternate wave counts on one chart.  All my wave counts are saved on my hard drive for every month and not having many alternates on one chart saves me time in finding any mistakes.

The majority of wave analysts count out hundreds of micro mini wave counts and I always wondered how do they find their mistakes?

The above gold chart could give us a correction down to the bottom trend line after which gold would crank up again as another zigzag.

We also see this weekly chart where gold is far above both moving average lines and many times gold crashed below both averages before a new bullish phase started back up. It would take little for gold to decline and before we know it, gold has created a death cross on the weekly charts.

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The Golden Asteroid!

Recently a story has been going around that talks about Asteroid mining which contain massive amounts of precious metals .

The Golden Asteroid That Could Make Everyone On Earth A Billionaire

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Gold Intraday Update!

I’m at the 5 min scale which is about as small as I can go. This is starting to look like an inverted zigzag which could be a wave 1-2.  In other words, gold can’t blast to new record highs. At this scale, it will not take long because the action is much faster so it should only take a few days for this to produce a newer low.

I posted a group of futures contracts that took gold to December 2024, producing a $123 spread higher than the cash price. This is a huge spread and I checked again today and the spread has already compressed to $104. This spread should keep compressing once any decline in the gold price gets serious.

The experts say that as long as gold stays above $1400 it remains bullish but below that gold will be bearish. Good luck with that!

With cash oil and the December 2021 contract, oil is about $4-$5 lower than the cash price.  This is very bearish for oil.

With gold, I will check the spread more often as I would expect it to keep compressing.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Update

Last night gold pushed to $1411 after which it started to back off.  Short term, golds rally may add another leg up but I think that a correction is due

The entire gold bullish phase that started back in late 2015, from the $1050 price level, will soon be 3 1/2 years old.

3 1/2 years for an Intermediate degree move is stretching it so moving everything up by one degree is an option. In other words, we could be in a Primary degree “B” move that is just another big bear market rally.

At a minimum, another correction is due which could send gold back down to the $1260 price level. The $1260 price range would only be a small correction but if a much bigger corrective move is coming then the $1260 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding.

Any gold run below $1160 would confirm that the 5 waves just completing was just part of another fancy bear market rally.

I personally would not be caught dead being long in gold when a vertical move is completing, but the rest of the world is super bullish in gold.

To show how bullish they are I took a screen clip of all the gold contracts going out to December 2024 where gold was already pushing $1511. Any bear attack will certainly change all the above contracts, and with a $100 spread the wave patterns that far out, are radically different.

Sure gold has had a nice run but big bear market rallies can fool us all the time. Gold bulls are smiling as they see this breakout as the beginning, not the end!  Since 2011 gold has had many false bullish moves so what’s the difference this time?

It’s all about the fundamental news but yet nobody can remember these fundamentals a few months later. At least with wave positions, we have a much bigger and longer time horizon.  All the wave counting in the world matters little if we have no clue what degree level that the 2011 peak is.

My gold wave counts need more time until the public lays all its fears on the front pages.

I had a bet going that gold would not see $1400 or higher and yet it did just that, last night. 10 ounces of silver was on the line so I must deliver the 10-ounce silver coin today!

 

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Gold Daily Chart: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

Since the August 2018 bottom has now charged up getting very close to the $1400 price level.  By the end of the day, gold may breach the $1400 price level.

I have a horizontal line at the $1375 price level which I see as being very special.  The main reason why $1375 is special because it’s a 1.618 ratio from the 1980 gold peak of $850.

The majority of gold bugs are jumping for joy as gold is finally breaking out!

The problem with any bullish run is that when a small majority thinks it’s a bull market break-out it can also be the end of a bigger bear market rally.

The commercial hedgers don’t see a bull market as they have a large net short positions in gold at this time.  If the majority are just waking up to the present bullish phase, they are pretty late already.  A bullish vertical move is never a sign to jump in because they always run out of steam most of the time.

Many believe that the 2011 peak was some ordinary peak so they are just looking for a gold market correction.  2011 is my wave 3 in Cycle degree and I have not been forced to change it just yet!  There is no way that a Cycle degree correction has already completed, so gold could turn south with little effort.

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Gold Intraday Chart And Impending Death Cross!

My last gold post got 323 page views within the first 24 hours after being posted, which has broken many records that have only been beaten  3-4 times before.

At this time the intraday chart moving averages show a potential death cross can happen if gold’s recent spike is a bigger event than expected.

Crossings happen more frequently at this intraday scale but it will take more time for gold to show us a new direction.

In order for the death cross to happen the gold price needs to crash a bit further but knowledge about any crossings is pretty useless if we don’t understand the “Lag Time” involved.

The small Minuette degree wave 2 may already be completed so hopefully gold will confirm it very soon.

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Quick Gold Daily Chart Update

Once I looked at what the commercial hedgers did last week I had to post something.  Last week the commercials added some of the most bearish positions in gold that I have seen.

Sure gold can go higher as the speculators are the true trend chaser!

This record goes back to June 2018 with a huge commercial short position and speculators having a huge long position. It’s impossible for both groups to be right at the same time.

From my experience, it’s the speculators that are the trend chasers and usually the first people to panic when they find out that they are wrong. All it takes is one group to see the set-up at the same time. A large group or a small group matters little as small panics happen all the time.

One strong drop in the gold price can send the speculators into sheer panic as they try and squirm their way out of a bull trap.

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Gold Weekly Chart Review

For the last 3 1/2 years, gold has been in a sideways pattern and is now approaching the upper part of this range, $1360-$1375.  At $1400 gold’s breakout would be pretty obvious and I’m sure the gold bulls will be cheering.

This weekly chart 2019 death cross,  has been avoided for now but I’m sure that the death cross will happen.

At $1050 or lower gold would confirm that for the last 3-4 years, the gold price has just been in a big bear market rally.

Trying to hunt for an Intermediate degree wave 3-4 is now over 3 years old and compared to other Intermediate degree corrections since 2011, this is getting a bit too long.

Jumping up by one degree definitely cures the time problem but we still have a location problem. Gold is acting this bullish but silver is still far behind. If the surge in the gold price is fear based, then the gold bulls could get worn out and run and hide.

Many may think that the $1050 price level is some miracle support price but nobody knows what that 2016 bottom really is. When the 2011 peak hit I think it was a Cycle degree top and frankly there is little chance that a Cycle degree 4th wave has already completed at this point in time.

At a minimum gold would have to dip into the 1980 price peak of $850 before any major new bull market will occur. All commodities run under diagonal idealized patterns, which means there are always many zigzags that connect together. With gold, the 5 waves ending in 2011 was a Primary degree “C” wave run.

With the impending bottom of solar cycle 24, anything can still happen to the gold price.

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Gold Bullish Phase Impending Correction

For the last month or so cash gold produced about 7 wild spikes to the upside, which readers can all ignore. Anomalies like this do happen in futures forcing me to double check by the switch to line mode to see if the spike is real.

As wild as this bullish phase has been it’s pretty normal for diagonal wave structures. The 5th wave is another zigzag with one 5th wave being part of a “C” wave bullish phase.

The May/June zigzag is not even close to having an even “C” wave but I look for zigzags anyways. I allow much more extreme zigzag lengths like in 1930-1932 stock market decline. When a market dishes out a long “C” wave then I allow it and incorporate it into my version of the EWP.

The Gold price can crash again as this potential 4th wave correction has not finished.

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Gold Daily Chart: Time For A Correction?

Gold started out June with a price jump that can get the gold bulls all excited. Ok, I’ll bite as the last 3 months sure can work as a diagonal 4th wave flat.

The H&S could also be very bullish but before this happens, gold may have to crash back down to $1260-$1250, and then crank back up again.

On the other hand, gold can fall like a rock but then we know that the gold bulls are not as committed as the media makes them out to be.

Gold moves that are made with “Fear” hardly ever last that long so we still could see some wild action in both directions.

The one thing that some people might not expect is that a diagonal 4th wave can dip down into wave 2 which would be closer to $1200 gold.

 

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Gold Intraday Wild Ride To The Stars!

Since the last part of April and all of May gold showed 3 higher lows before soaring to $1318. I think a correction is due but this could also be another false start to nowhere after which gold can crash very deep.

This has happened so many times that I care to count, but I also know these wild and choppy moves are part of what makes commodities rather exciting at times.

Of course, if you missed this run then welcome to the club. All the spikes you see you can ignore them, except our present spike, which is the real deal! This blast is part of a “C” wave which if I’m right, will get completely retraced.

These wild moves also change the Gold/Oil ratio but the ratio has remained close to 24:1.

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Gold Daily Chart: Fear Moves Don’t Last!

So far gold is doing what I wanted to see happen, but it’s so choppy that it can be part of a diagonal decline and never breakout or see $1350.  Gold looks like it’s in a correction but I also have to keep my diagonal options open.

A little crash in the USD sure helps to fire up the emotional investors as they charge into gold. When you hear investors running to gold as a safe haven hiding spot, then this is an emotional decision and not a logic longer-term investment.

At this daily chart scale, gold has not bounced off the 200-day MA, which will be important to watch.

I have made some changes to the wave count and we will see if a new bearish low happens.

It also depends on how bullish or how bearish the commercial hedger’s COT reports are tonight.

I’m sure President Trump’s duties slapped on Mexico was a surprise, but really folks what do you expect in a trade war. In 1930 the trade war had the same effect when they signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Small tariff wars have never really stopped as many presidents also loved to enforce duties.

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Gold Daily Chart: Impending Breakout?

For the last 3 months gold has been declining but the waves have been overlapping to a point where we can be in a triangle with the “E” wave still to complete.

Last week the commercials in gold and silver made some bullish moves as they added longs and took away short positions.  Gold doesn’t have to fall to $ 1260 as it could just blast up from today’s prices as well.

If a bullish move is still pending then that right shoulder trend line should not hold.  Any price move above $1350 would be a good sign If we are in a corrective pattern and we get a 5th wave. It could be as long as wave three by the time this rally is finished.

We still have a full week of trading for May but then June could produce another reversal.

 

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Gold Intraday Review: Correction or Return of the Golden Bear?

Gold has made some wild moves since its peak on February, 20 at the $1346 price level. I also dropped the degree level down by one degree which might not last too long as I do have the potential for a triangle to play out as well.

Commercials are still net short by a large amount and last week they added to their bearish outlook when they removed longs and added short positions at the same time.

What I’m looking for is a zigzag type of a move which should take us to new bearish lows. If that happens then my mythical triangle may also become more visible, which suggests a new record high can happen.

You can ignore that huge spike to the upside, as it only shows up in a bar style setting but it doesn’t show up when I switch to line type settings.  False spikes do happen and since the April peak, several other false spikes were also created, which I didn’t count.

The worst that happens with a spike is that your account provider scopes in a huge amount of stop-loss orders from the bears.

It used to happen to me when I was trading the mini gold contract as the liquidity was extremely low and spikes were pretty normal.

I know that the gold bulls are looking for investors to charge into gold as a safe-haven but those are emotional decisions which never last that long.

Gold has been in a bearish mood since the 2011 peak and unless you know how bullish they were at that peak we can make the wrong decisions thinking a standard  5 wave bull market has happened.

That 2011 peak was a 30-year ± 1 year mania peak as wave 3 in Cycle degree. Not only that but gold also finished a huge Primary degree zigzag at the same time.

All commodities run under an idealized diagonal world that has been active since the Little Ice Age. That all changed during the Roaring 20s as stocks and commodities separated and went their separate paths.

 

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Gold Intraday Gyrations Update

The US dollar plunged this morning and gold reacted with its own small spike to the upside.  Is gold in a small 5 wave sequence? If it is, then gold could cut right through the top trend line next week.

This is a diagonal wave count  I’m working at this time and it can spike back to $1310 before I have to call my bearish outlook in gold as dead. Maybe not really dead, but just postponed for now.

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Silver Monthly Chart And The Impending Death Cross Review!

Since the 1980 peak, the silver market crashed and turned into a bear market, with a bunch of “Truncated” bottoms or what I call A “Running” pattern that falls short of expectations.   The 2011 peak was also a shortened wave just barely breaking the 1980 silver peak.

The bullish phase from 2002 to 2011 was a 5 wave “C” wave bull market which alternated perfectly in pattern to the 70’s bull market. Readers may find it strange but the 2011 peak coincided very well with the first peak of solar cycle 24 while the 1980 peak matched solar cycle 21.

In the big picture of things, diagonal wave structures dominated the commodities markets and silver is just one shining example. I have been told that silver is in a bull market but that theory will get blown out of the water, once silver breaks critical support at about the $13.50 price level.

All bullish forecasts will be proven wrong once silver breaks this crucial support. Don’t get fooled when silver moves in small increments or seem very slow as there are no daily trading limits on most commodities, which can produce dynamic free falls that investors can’t handle. If we are in a Cycle degree silver market then any Cycle degree correction is still far from finished.

There are 30-year cycles between major bull market peaks and the next major peak could take until 2041 to complete.

Since the 2005 bottom silver has enjoyed the effect of a golden cross!  On this monthly chart, silver has already produced a “Death Cross” so being bullish in a death cross world may not work out too well in the longer run. Many if not most metals can be called, “Energy Metals”  and silver can be called that due to the fact the silver is used in solar panels!  which feed the “Green Economy”!

I will try and incorporate more and more solar cycle commentary as from my perspective the sun and its 11-year cycles control our planet.

 

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Platinum Weekly Chart Bull Market Review

I changed the wave count around a bit making the 2011 peak a short 5th wave. The commercial hedgers are still net short, but that hasn’t stopped the platinum price from rallying.

During the 2017-2018 sideways pattern sure fits a zigzag very well which crashed to new record lows, before platinum started cranking up again.  If the bulls are in control then the simple bearish trend line will not contain platinum prices.

The $760 price level is also the second time that platinum hit a major bottom which also happened with the 2008 market crashes. That fact alone could send prices soaring.

The sad fact is that the pattern in the last 3 or so years, can also work as an expanded pattern. The “C” wave bullish phase can still travel above the 2016 “A” wave peak. The rising bottom wedge is also very bullish so any nightmares of platinum prices going to $400 soon, may have a few more years to wait.

Even once this 5 wave run in Minor degree has played out, it can also be another bear market rally.  I think $1200 is attainable but then another platinum crash should happen.

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Gold Monthly Chart 1980-2019 Elliott Wave Count Review

It’s always a good idea to go back in chart history to do a complete review. All my Supercycle and Grand Supercycle wave counts I used to have no longer were making sense, so my degree levels eventually ended up at a Cycle degree.

Three-degree levels above and three-degree levels below Cycle degree is what I’m chasing.  All the Minor degree wave positions have not been filled out. They will not make any senses anyway if any Intermediate and Primary degree positions don’t make sense.

Basically, what it means we have to connect all the “Cycle Degree Dots” first before we can ever advance into the next higher degree.

I generally don’t like to use trend lines very often as I think they are very subjective.  The bottom trend line is based on the angle of the top trend line. The bottom trend line is pointing to the $500 price range.

Just so gold investors don’t freak out thinking I’m forecasting $500 gold, you can look ahead with the top trend line and it could be pointing to $3000 gold.

The top gold wave count ended on a very good 5 wave impulse move, blowing its top in 1980 at $850. Every wave analyst on the planet had some degree of a wave 3 top for 1980.  Even before I fully realized that commodities run as giant diagonals I started to apply it to gold.

From 1980 to the 2011 peak all we had was a zigzag. A fricken zigzag lasting 31 years and still only a Primary degree move. A bear market in gold lasting about 20 years was the result of the 1980 gold mania peak.

If we jump to the 1999-2000 gold bottom, gold was considered junk as it seemed that the entire world was trying to dump gold. Then a miracle happened and gold started to rally and never stopped for a good 10-year run.

I use the 30-year cycles in gold from 1920, 1950, 1980, 2011 with 2041 being the next 30-year cycle top. (SC Wave 3)

In late 2011, the gold price started to tumble and most of the wave analysts were looking for the bull market to come back. All the wave counting in the world will not help us if we have no clue what the 2011 peak really was.

It was another gold mania even more insane than 1980,  as $5,000-$10,000 gold forecasts were pretty normal.  Back at the 1980 peak, the gold price forecasts were $2000 or more. The only thing that has changed is the price of the forecasts.

If you believe that the 2011 peak is a wave 3 peak in Cycle degree,  then we can pick out 3 types of corrections that we can have. It’s pretty common Elliott Wave knowledge, that markets can fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. The 1980-2000 bear market is not the 4th wave! It’s a “B” wave but they can act much like a 4th wave as well.

I think our present gold market is still in a bearish funk, but it could take a few years for us to see a better picture. The decline of solar cycle 24 is drawing gold prices like a magnet, but gold prices could also get repelled back up with the power of solar cycle 25 behind it. Sure we’ve had a long bearish phase already but history shows us that longer ones can happen.

 

Have a Great Easter!

 

 

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Palladium Intraday Bearish Update

This is a 90 min intraday chart with the standard moving averages as well.  Commercials have a heavy net short position which makes chasing a bull market wave count a rather futile endeavor.

There are no daily trading limits in many of the metals so they can crash in huge moves that can surprise many investors/traders.

Commercials are net short on most of these metals which does not bode well for an instant turn around soaring to new world high records.  I would have to do more research on how palladium reacts to the solar cycles, but maybe I can do a quick check by the next time I update palladium again.

Any reaction to the solar cycles can still take a few years until late 2020. I hope to post the progress of the solar cycle more often as they have a huge effect on all aspects of human activity here on earth and in all countries.

Make no mistake about it,  but the war on capitalism is in full swing as many governments and others seek the full shutdown of all fossil fuel use.

Our own government is in full destruction mode as it dictates and forces carbon taxes on all fossil fuel use.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Bearish Update!

Looking at gold from a daily chart perspective can give us an alternate opinion, especially if we are looking at a potential Head&Shoulder pattern.  I just labeled the “Head” while the right shoulder is still declining.

If this picture in gold is really a bullish pattern then, the right shoulder would have to blast much higher and not stop!  Of course, if the 5 wave sequence is close to reality then this decline will keep right on going taking out the $1160 price level.

Gold has a track record of crashing $$180-$200 in any bullish or bearish situation so any price below $1150 would certainly qualify.

The 200-day MA is down at the $1250 price level, but gold would have to travel much further before the death cross on this daily chart happens.

The death cross is much closer in the weekly and monthly charts than it is on this daily chart.

The commercial hedgers are in a very bearish funk as this is a strong net short position. With these numbers, it’s pretty hard for gold to soar to the moon again.  This Friday is a full moon so short term, gold could turn bullish.

When gold soars due to safe-haven buying,  then these moves never last very long as it’s all based on the emotion of “Fear”.

Silver and gold can and do move together, but they do so under different patterns.  In short, the overall bullish pattern in gold is painting us a false scenario, which silver and gold stock ETFs do not confirm.  Just because an asset class goes up does not mean it’s in a real bull market. Bear market rallies can last for years before they implode again.

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Silver Weekly Chart Bearish Review

As we can see on this silver weekly chart, for the last few years the basic trend has been down while gold’s trend was pointing up. Just because gold has been going up does not mean that gold is in a bull market.

Since the April 2011 peak silver has had many powerful rallies that “All” turned into bear market rallies by retracing the previous bullish move and then proceeding lower.  Silver is only about $1.40 away from a complete retracement of its 2018 bottom which would make it an 8-year bear market still in progress.  All the gold hype is brainwashing us while silver is being ignored on the most part.

Another strong dip below $13.56 would confirm that the big silver bear (Polar Bear) is alive and well.  The silver bear is already 8 years old and it will be important to watch for the next year or so.

The 2011 peak is a 31-year peak counting from 1980. The difference between the 1980 peak and the 2011 peak can hardly be measured. Both were solar cycle peaks, while solar cycle 24 had a secondary peak in 2014.

The solar cycle is what drives the business cycles on earth and silver could remain bearish until solar cycle 24 has ended. This might take until the fall of 2020 to play out.

The commercials added long and short positions, last week, which only changes the open interest as they are still net short.

When I have the moving averages turned on, we already had the Death Cross on the weekly and monthly charts, but not on the daily chart. This just supports any bearish outlook I might have at this stage of the game.

 

 

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Gold Intraday Slump Review

I was hoping for a counter-rally move and we finally got one this morning.  Gold peaked last night at $1310 and then proceeded to implode. In order for the April bullish move to remain bullish, gold has to form a very corrective looking pattern before it retraces 100% or more.

The gold price slumping below $1281 would confirm that this April rally was just another bear market rally.  Time is the unknown factor as any move can be fast or slow.  If gold breaks out to a new low it might take until the end of April for this to happen but otherwise, we are at the mercy of the emotional crowd.

Running in and out of gold assets for safe-haven reasons hardly ever lasts very long as those are emotional moves, not logic moves.

Gold also ran into the 50-day MA line at the $1306 price level after which it turned and headed south.  The 200-day MA is at the $1250 price level which is a big drop, with no guarantee that it will get there.

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Gold Intraday Update

Once I looked at the commercial hedger’s positions, there was no doubt in my mind that they are in a bearish mood.

I will add the gold COT report later. They were also just as bearish in silver so I can’t see gold or silver soaring to new record highs just yet. Most of these metals or futures contracts have no daily limit and gold/silver are two more. It is also one of the main reasons why these no limit contracts can free fall.

The death cross on the weekly charts is below us at the $1250 price level, and the $1160 price level will confirm this wild gold move mostly as a bear market rally.

Commercial hedgers removed 25,503 long positions and also added 10,272 to their short side. Combine them together and that is a substantial bearish move. Chasing a bullish wave count under these conditions is futile at best.

 

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Palladium Crash Update!

Finally, Palladium gave up and turn south. I was hoping that this would happen at the $1550 price level but palladium soared about $55 and turned at $1607.

The palladium bears have attacked, and I’m sure bull blood will flow. Right now palladium is sitting at the 50-day-MA. The 200-day MA is far down at the $1150 price level. The big question is, “Is this a short blip and the bulls will return”?

It all depends how big of a price bubble we were at?  The highest price in palladium’s history has just happened and if a Cycle degree correction is due then the above 4th wave will never hold.

Any drop down to the 4th wave would still only be a Minor degree move, but we would need three higher degree levels before a Cycle degree 4th wave crash has completed.

There is also “No” daily trading limit that I could see. Lack of a daily limit virtually allows the price to free fall so a little dip sure can turn into “Big” dip.

Commercial hedgers were net short by a little more than a 2:1 ratio so I expect this ratio to change in the future as commercials turn bullish again.

Palladium has also started to decline before the end of solar cycle #24 which may not end until late 2020. December 2020 is also the end of a 20-year cycle that started in the year 2000.

 

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Gold Intraday Gyrations Update.

You can blame gold’s gyrations on Turkey, if you like.  It sure seemed like the US dollar and the Euro benefited from the lira turmoil.

We did have a bullish phase in March, with only a few days left to go. Watch out for fake April Fool’s news, as the pranksters just love putting out fake news.

Today the media is easily manipulated, more than it ever has in history, and it’s only going to get worse.

The March rally started as a good impulse, but then it fell apart after the “A” wave peak in Subminuette degree. Gold is sitting on the bottom trend line and if the Golden Bears are in control, then this bullish support line will never hold.

If gold slices through the psychological $1300 price level with ease, then that would also help make my bearish case.  $1294 might give us 50%-60% retracement support, then again a very bearish gold price will not care about any support.

Where is the death cross?  I looked at the daily chart and then switched to the weekly chart and at about the $1240 price level gold would have to find support at the 200-day MA line. Even the golden crossings happened at about the same price level, so it will be very interesting when it gets closer. The 200-day MA is only $50-$60 below us and a crash this small is a walk in the park for gold.

 

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