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Category Archives: PRECIOUS METALS

2011: Gold Mania 30 Year Cycle Top!

What the majority of gold investors don’t have a clue what a bear market rally actually is. The last thing they understand is that the peak of 2011 was a gold mania peak. Yes I said a gold mania peak, with a Cycle degree wave 3.  Manias do not end well, and they sure don’t end with a soft bottom like gold has done.  I have tried to explain this to gold investors and they pretty well give you the middle finger and tell you to piss off! They are convinced a bull market correction is over and another leg up is going to happen.

All my wave positions  in gold and gold stock ETFs are working wave counts, where there is real money being use to test this wave count.  Even for Cycle degree gold O have tons of technical readings that do not confirm that any bull market is set to take of. A stupid forecast (at this time) would be for gold to reach $2225 on this leg up.!

They have bee forecasting a $2000 gold price for 50 years, and it still hasn’t happened. It may take until 2041 before this forecast comes true.

If you are still a fire breathing gold bull, and believe all the crap you hear about a gold correction finishing.  Then I will tell you that gold could go the opposite way and crash $500 to below $800.  $800 has always been major support, so I don’t get it that they think a single flimsy price bottom is going to enhance their life!  There is the time to invest in gold and there are times when gold turns into a traders world. Good gold bear trader will love this market for the next three years. By the end of this year gold will only be a stage 1 of a bear market, followed by an extremely volatile and soaring gold price that could make a $1000 run .  Who will be the most nimble to catch this super run in gold! It will not be the investors as the traders are far more nimble even if they carried huge positions. There is a huge difference betting 100 shares of say GLD, than 100 futures contracts. I don’t know the price of a 100 ounce gold contract, but I bet a reader can figure out what 100 gold contracts will cost.  All this time the short player, “one who bets on the markets to go down, will enjoy his shamrock green while the gold bulls who are still holding, are seeing a sea of red.

Investors don’t see a crash when they already own gold, so a bear market rally will fool the majority all the time. The market will always turn its back on investors so it can do the most damage. This market does not allow us to be complacent as a huge deflationary crash is on its way. Part one of this crash you can watch on the 6 o”clock news by this fall.

There are three stages to unwinding a gold bubble, and this fall will only be the first stage, with two more stages to go.

Fundamentals will always give you the wrong information at the extremes, and I repeat that when I here some analysts recite fundamentals justifying a bull market.

All the analysts were bearish on gold in 1999 as they were all selling, Market Vane was at 14% bulls, presently at 34% bulls. This needs to drop dramatically before we reverse. My weekly Market Vane report does not confirm any gold bullish outlook. And I’m sure the speculators have to turn fully bearish, before this ends. It is the speculators in the COT reports that are the most helpful as they always get trapped in a trend. When it turns, they get into panic and end up dumping gold. They dumped 700 tonne of gold this year already.

The most important thing you have to be aware of and that is, that the space of nothing below the $1047 gold price there is teaming pool of “SELL” orders. They are not buy on the dip orders, as it would take a very experience gold trader to catch a falling knife. I have traded futures in Gold,Oil and US dollar back in 2006, so I do sympathize with them all the time. Earning a good green payload and dumping it in your trading account feels great, but many times we can’t keep this cash hall, and next thing you know your living with the guys on East Hasting Street.

If we got a $100 gold “gap” down would not surprise me at all, and actually I would welcome it, as it will scramble the gold bulls mind, figuring out in what just happened.

 

Hows this wave count in gold enhance your life? This is the crap that people read thing he knows what he is doing, after all you have to have a bullish wave count in a bull market!  The fact this wave count has already been trashed making it worthless wave count dumped into the digital hell.  I would bet 2 Silver Stones against this guy any day of the year and come out smelling like a rose.  This waver sees the $1050 bottom as a Primary degree 4th wave bottom so he is so far off from the real count that this guy will do more damage to you than you can imagine.  You missed another good chance to play short so you missed out on those gains, and missing out is a loss just the same.

Only able to bet to the long side,we are only running at a 50% efficiency rate at best.

 

 

Hits: 4

Impending Palladium Crash 1980-2018 Elliott Wave Update!

I ask you is this palladium pattern something you should invest in or trade up and down with futures trading. I have to check for the ETF to see if there is one to sell short on. The daily chart has also produced the Death Cross with another well below us on this chart. To be long (bullish position) at the top of this pattern is financial suicide as far as I’m concerned. Since the 1980’s this entire bull market just kept on going, and going, and going, until a little while ago as it seems to have turned a corner already.

How does a $600 Palladium crash work in your investment world?

Pure and simple folks, all commodities “must” be counted from a diagoanl perspective, otherwise what I say makes no sense, and your trades will suffer from performance issues.

When we only go long we are only running at 50% efficiency, so that can be massivly improved by knowing  how to go “short” and “long” when the opportunity arises.

All commodaties run as connecting zigzags, and I feel more and more comfortable in seeing them and counting them out. Like I said I have the largest collection of diagonal wave sructures on this planet and here is another one. Every wave position must be confirmed and wave count maintained and I don’t have the time if the gold market is going to go nuts.

Always remember that the void below our present palladium prices are filled with “SELL” orders as protective stops!

 

Hits: 3

Gold: Cycle Degree 5.0 Eats Investors For Breakfast!

 

In the last week or so my Cycle degree opinion got raked over the coals because of my believe that we are still completing a bottom. I have in that situation many times and I will cover it more down the page.  We are in once in “every” 30 years type of a gold market that will not repeat itself until 2041, and 2071, and 2101!  I think it is imperative that those that follow any EWP understand that some major wild swings are ahead, not trying to be obnoxious, I already have my zigzag impressed into my mind like a picture.  I personally do not need to show one wave position anywhere and I will still trade it, using all my best experiences, to get into a major bottom successfully.

Gold traders and investors don’t mix at all as it is the gold “investors” and stock market “investors” that are going to get slaughtered. Traders don’t lose money in a market crash, we are riding it down and will enjoy some profits as all those waiting for a gold bullish move are going to lose twice as much. Once because the loss of the gold price, and their net worth , second because they wasted another extremely good opportunity as well.

At this point gold has taken out support #1 and is heading down with a little spike, this is what the bottom may look like so you are getting a sneak preview of later this year.

I will not be buying gold trading assets but will stick to GDX and GDXJ as my gold bullion replacement. Besides the gold ETFs will be the first to let us know that a top is coming.  (gold/Gdx ratio) All those that are holding gold stocks because their advisor got them “into” gold, thinking they are looking for wave 5 in Primary degree to unfold.

Being out by only “ONE” degree wave analysts will be out by a mile. Because investors continuously suffer losses in crashes, I will always be a trader at heart. The reason I became a traders is because I suffered severe loses by the hands of investor advice or suggestions in the first place.

My focus is going to be on gold for the rest of the year as shorting is one of my favorite of not missing an opportunity.  With a few more people joining this Cycle degree wave 4 in gold will be continuously tested with real money and GDX.  Any futures traders must do the same thing as with gold future you can bring in astounding “green” returns.

Gold investor are parked on a Death Cross and the daily cross has already arrived and gone. We can see the little knife edge peaking out from the pack and by the time gold falls below $1045 the gold investor will be freaking out as billions will be wiped of the books in a flash. So far so good as my USD short positions will keep riding the gold bear down, and then up again into late spring of 2019. The 2011 peak in gold is not some flimsy Primary degree top, it is a Cycle degree wave 3 top and it’s correction and bear market is “FAR” from  finished. The last thing I want is to see, is my readers get hurt because I didn’t see a $500 gold crash coming.

This Cycle degree zigzag crash I have visualized in my mind, is the same as the one that Robert Prechter counted out in his video.  I see all these Death Crosses forming and I have warned three of my relatives already so they can watch it on the 6 o’clock news channel. Things are going to get ugly fast as the entire world is concentrating on that $1050 support for gold. I do not bet my future on a fricken flimsy “price”, as any real bottom was always $800! Investors are going to find out the hard way and I will not lose a tear drop for their losses!

I have tons to cover and some more trading detail to explain so we can have  good bottom entry with GDX. Everything I say can just be cloned or scaled up for any different capital base, but with $5000 USD being the bare minimum to start with for the Plan “A” trade setup.  I have been waiting for this since the 2011 top as it is my type of a market, wild and crazy!

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Gold Daily Chart: Falling Gold Bulls!

 

I wasn’t going to post this due to some guy laying a claim to his wave count. This is the typical crap wave counts put out by people that have “NO” clue they have to use diagonal wave counting methods. This wave flipper will be flipping numbers around until pigs fly, and will destroy the follower who wants to trade thinking he is in a bull market. My one year old great granddaughter can paint better than this with her little fingers. Obviously he is painting you a very bullish picture at the same time that a Death Cross has already formed. This wave counter,  has no clue at all that a $500 gold crash coming.  How would like to bet 100 shares on his wave pattern?  This wave count will give you a loss compounded, because you lost another opportunity to trade in the right direction.  You don’t have to agree with anything I post, but I can shred any of these wave counts with ease. This is the crap that is dealt out by people that have “NO” skin in the game, and have never traded an ETF in their life.

The chart above breaks “every” EWP rule under the sun yet this comes from a very popular site. This type of counting is rampant on the internet and they are easy to spot.

I may sound that I’m way overboard, but I’m just sugar coating it for public consumption.  I have full confidence in my work under Cycle degree, that I can shred “ANY” wave count that you will find on the internet. Even if you get 10 people helping you search a wave count for gold, that I can’t find “MAJOR” mistakes in.

One day I will put up a bounty for a flawless wave count, with a 10 ounce silver coin as the prize, but, you must put up a Silver coin if you want to bet!  I have my silver stone bet against the bull market, so when gold breaks below $1047 I win another coin. I will be posting more on this coin as it is great looking and I love the shine.

It may be hard to understand why I’m very bearish on gold and investments but what you see above is a triangle in a “B” wave which the experts call the start of a bull market!  Does this pattern look like nice clean cut 5 wave sequences? No, not on your life.  Gold was fighting against the trend for the entire time, and that is the reason why gold is so choppy.  This gold price bet requires gold to fall below $1047 but from a technical stand point one support leg has already been taken out. The gold bull investors  have already lost, they just don’t know it yet!

I even gave them a 3:1 advantage and I think they will still lose. Everything is still on track and you can see the first part of the falling knife already!  Do you see it coming?

For my readers I will wait until gold falls below my “A” wave and then we only have one more support leg to kick out the golden bull, and the rest will history.

When this happens then news on gold will explode and they start fleeing a sinking ship like rats!

Hits: 4

Silver Weekly And the $13 Crossing.

On quick posts I will not fill in every little fricken wave, as I count during the day all the time with my finger and eyes!  When you see any wave counting analysts fill in every little wave then that wave count is feeding you a bunch crap! I may be nasty about this but I’m sugar coating it for sure.  The gold bulls are ignoring silver and it is just $2.50 or so away from a new bear market low. The magic number is $13 and as soon as silver hits below $13, then the 3 year bull market comes to an  end!  The gold bulls call it a bull market!

I call it a bear market rally and they always have to retrace themselves.  It may take another month and when it does how do you justify silver to go to new record lows and gold soar? Give me a break! It will be silver that will drag down gold. We have a Cycle degree zigzag to go through so silver could hit $8 and when it gets between to the Cycle degree wave 4 low then silver and gold bullion will be in a major Buy&Hold that will last to the next SC degree wave three top in 2041 and 2071, and 2101. $400 for gold.  I can give you the two most important wave positions for gold and silver but I always have to visualize it first for months and then draw it out by hand and white board to make sure it has a very tight fit. 2101 is Submillennium wave 3 top in gold and silver. So you can understand how important it is to test Cycle degree wave 3 as it will be the base for the next hundred years that the younger generation of wave analysts may be able to use.  The 30 year cycle is real and it is so reliable you could set a watch on it.  Mind you it would have to be a grandfather clock!

I have to see my patterns first before I count them out, as wave counting is only the secondary act to confirm what you see.

If the entire crop of wave analyst do not see a bear market rally in silver then it is a good idea to short their views. The market is not always right, as it’s a liar and a cheat, and it will rip you off with it’s mood swings. It is the wording that I use when somebody says that the “markets are always right”

It is the job of Cycle degree wave analysis to become the bullshit detector which I think it does an excellent job.

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Gold Weekly Chart Gold Bulls:0 Gold Bears: 1

I want to be clear that I do not post charts just for public entertainment, my wave counts are “working” wave counts constantly being tested with real money by myself  for sure as I need my EWP style to generate a home-based living trading the gold markets.

Which is better and more accurate to use? A forecast built on pattern recognition or your betting platform based on a single price? Which comes first Price Or The Pattern?

I have done this when they forecast the DOW going to $1000 while I had it going the other way. This scenerio is repeating itself but now it’s doing it in gold.  In my world price means nothing, while pattern recognition is everthing.  The gold bull experts are basing a future bullish gold move on one single price.  How can a wave trader that knows how to carry bigger positions base his future on price? If I bet long in this type of a pattern then my home based trading business would be out of business and  (Broker Bob) “BB” would be siting on the sidewalk with his cup asking for donations.  I have donated a token Bitcoin to a street begger, so you can imagine the look on their faces, it’s priceless.

We have 4 bumps to  take out and when that last $1047 prices gets taken out, I win my Silver Stone. (one 10 ounce pure silver coin) I have even given the gold bulls a 4:1 advantage  and this morning the first bump has been retraced.  Anything below $1200 will now take out the second leg of a barstool, so that leaves the gold bulls sitting on a barstool with only 2 legs left.  Is this where you want to be, wishing for gold $1400!

I will be posting more frequent gold postings and silver coin postings as well but my underlying job is to find the best possible wave positions where I can trust it with larger positions. I have traded gold and USD futures and I trade these ETFs about the same way. Strong positions if you think you are right!

I don’t mind saying it as I find pleasure this time in wiping the smart ass looks on gold bulls faces when gold crashes below $1047. I have about a 1000 share short position and after this morning nothing will be change. I never screw with a trade after it’s done, I do nothing to it because it destroys your efficiency and kills any cost averaging.

I don’t think that people don’t realize that we can increase our Elliott Wave Theoretical Maximum (TM) by 100% when we know and practice selling any market short.

To catch any stunniing move I want to make sure that there is at least one 5 wave sequence in it, and preferably in Minor degree and higher!  We are in an Intermediate degree 4th wave, so this gives us one move left in 5 waves of Minute degree.  I don’t think people realize the compounding nature when we can trade in both directions.

Yes I’m rebuilding a $12000 trading account but if all goes well into the fall then I may end up doubling this number once, “ALL” short positions are closed off.

Look up, somebody has dropped the knife and I’m sorry it slipped out of my hands but I just couldn’t hold it anymore!  Once the flurry of activity increases at the bottom and “ALL” buying is finished then we can relax until well into the spring. (March) Before the top we have to be out of our long gold positions and into the last 5 wave bearish run.  Riding the 5 waves is what my Elliott wave is all about so we can rebuild with much greater speed than the majority can deliver.

 

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Gold Daily Chart: How’s the Death Cross Working For You?

My believe that this gold market is nothing but a bear market rally should continue. We have our first H&S pattern and technically from my perspective,  the market is doing a good job of confirming it. The market will confirm my wave positions and all I have to do is click (Short sell) and sit back and watched it happen. I talked to a few gold bulls and tried to mention to them what a Death Cross was, and I was just laughed at.  They scoffed at the idea that gold even remotely has the chance of falling below $1047. If there is anytime in history how pattern comes before price it is now!

The bullish herd of gold investors are basing their investment decisions and their clients on a little $1050 gold price!   If I keep my readers in this position due to my wave analysis should never be allowed.  We have three more support prices to knock out and that could happen in a blink of an eye.  This morning I shorted GDX with another $300 shares and tried with IAU as well. Sad to say I have reached the limit that my account can handle, so from here on I just let it ride. If you are late to this bear party and are just jumping on the Golden Bear, then as soon as gold falls below $800 then “ALL” short positions should be closed off with the highest urgency.

Until then I will ride the goldden bear and try for another personal best time spent on the back of a golden bear. Well anyone that is testing this market with small 100 shares will know how it feels to have the market have your back as this crash will intensify.

Folks I will “NOT” give you wave counts except for Minor degree or better as this decline may not even give you waves that we can acually see. A long single “C” wave will work for me. Also by not doing this I’m setting a trap for all the phoney wave counters that are out there. If I stop all intricate wave counts for a few months then all you have to do is go out on the internet and see who is still counting this decline. Those wave counters have absolute no money behind their convictions as they have nothing better to do then make little numbers and letters!  Folks, I have a clear Idealized picture in my mind which the market needs to confirm.

We are going in a wild ride that few have any clue about in what’s coming. The staunches gold investor will not budge so all I have to say is then “go down with the Golden Titanic”.

I have a 10 ounce silver coin bet on this direction of gold and as soon as gold crosses $1047 I will win another 10 ounce silver coin. I need a few more coins to bet with as they are gret looking coins I love.

My CAD short positions have cranked up a brighter “Shamrock Green” with only one still in the red. (drawdown red) So that sure helps to confirm the direction.

I will mention it early but when this market reverses dramatically then at any top between $1700 and $1900 could get hit but when that happens remember that the year 1919  was the beginning a major silver crash and bear market that lasted 13 year before it bottom in 1932-33. I do not ignore big cycles as they are the key in understanding gold. What we are seeing in the gold market today comes along once in 30 years, so if I have a hot wave count I must take advantage of it.

In the next 3 years this wild gold price swings is my type of market where I feel most comfortable in.  Those who are not ready now will be ready as even a small $5000 USD account will be good to start with. My present day allotment is about $5000 USD.

This Cycle degree zigzag bear market is already the most real money tested wave pattern in history and with the help of a squad of testers then maybe more people will enjoy

seeing a little “green” as we crash into the fall.  We are falling down a 5 wave sequence, and I will do everything in my power to identify any 5 wave sequence that may come so we can maximize time, speed and efficiency, to extract green form every move we get.  In order to see green in our trading accounts we have to see red first.  No pain No gain!  I will talk about this”red” many more times as they are not losses until you take them.

I can tell you that this situation is looking just like early 2008 and I caught that falling knife with a position in GDX. It is one of the most memroable trades in my life and it made a good impression on me that will last the rest of my life. I want a few people to share the same experince and I will do everything in my power to see that you feel it too. You will never go back and do it another way.

In the 2008 market crashed I warned by big sister that what was going to happen in the fall of 2008 and explained it in detail as best as I could. After the crash did happen she confirmed I saw it coming all the way.

My big sister knowsthat I’m a traders invoved with gold so I told, her not to worry at all as I would get wiped out but may even prosper in this market crash. I reinforce this to her several times and it calmed her down. Now she is going to see the same thing again with the wild swings in gold. Only until the bottom arrives that she might tell me I was right.    If I think I see a crash coming with my Elliott Wave, then I will do everything in my power to mention it to my family and close freinds.

 

Hits: 7

Silver Weekly Chart 2011-2018 Update.

The silver bulls think that silver is in a bull market, yet all my best wave counts and indicators like the Death Cross tell me an opposite story. The sideways decline in silver is doing the opposite of what gold has done and at this point, silver only has to fall about $2.90 and it will break to new record lows. Below $13  silver will have confirmed that this so called bull market is nothing but a fake, or a bear market rally. All bear market rallies retrace themselves and have been doing that since the 2011 top. We are in a 5 wave decline and we are not finished by a long shot. A crash of more than $3.00 will end all this silly debate between those who can tell what a bear market rally is and those that can’t. The majority will never want to take the time to learn. Every single counter rally in this silver bear market is just a mini bear market rally and they all have been completely retraced. Each mini bear rally attracted the gold bulls back but their bullish views were quickly dashed as being wrong!

Folks the majority always get fooled and in the case of the 2016 top they are getting fooled by an Intermediate degree rally!  If they are so easily fooled then a huge silver “B” wave bull market in Primary degree will fool many more.  Are you ready for silver to crash to $8.00 because if your not your going to miss the biggest counter rally in silver that you have seen since the 2011 peak. I’ve been actively planning my future bull ride already with my friend but I will use GDX for that.

What we see above is called “Waiting” for the trade to come to me, as everyone else chases bull markets which I never do. When you chase a bull market your too late already and those that are late will already have missed huge gains. We had a huge Death Cross and then a Golden Cross and then several little crossings which should end with a small Death crossing when silver plunges. In the weekly chart this looks much worse, and I for one see silver as a short bet not a long bet. I would “NEVER” knowingly park my bullish positions on-top of a Death Cross. When you do your are going to suffer huge losses very quickly when the bottom gives out.

The world is going to deflate when the big one hits so no gold, Silver or oil can handle that and they will suffer the same fate as the markets. This has all happened before in the 20o8 crash, where everything crashed together in a deflationary spiral. 2018 is also a very special year for earth as it hits it’s 30 year cycle, of slowing rotation.

This rotation slowdown they say will cause massive earth quakes as the earth twists and turns. The metals all run on this cycle as major peaks are 30 years apart. Cycle degree wave 5 will not finish until 2041 and I still need to work on what the price of silver will be by that time. Short answer is $89 for silver!  In gold Supercycle degree wave three will be about $2225.

I also use the 100 year cycle as a forecasting tool. I time travel back to 1919 and look forward. 1919 was the peak of a major silver bullish phase so being long at that time would shred all our gold and silver investments.  Some of the greatest shorting opportunities are also going to come, so if you can only bet one way then you are running at 50% efficiency or less.

I look for high-efficiency trades for myself and my friends and they are found in 5 wave runs. Looking for trades that will contain any Minor degree 5 wave run should never be missed as they can be great winners if you can ride the bull!  The object is to find your personal best in a single trade and then try and beat it. If you try to beat the market it will surely come back and beat you up! 🙂

I’m short gold stock ETFs and have no intention of freaking out and selling in a panic. As long as I have funds in active real money positions, I’m constantly testing my wave positions with real money.

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Gold Intraday: Last Chance To Be A Bull Market!

Well folks, the time is near as we approach the most important price level for gold, and that is below $1236. Just to be on the safe side I use $1234 as the official price failure confirming ig gold is in a bear market or not. Yes we are talking around a $2 window, to confirm this so called gold bull market!  From my Cycle degree perspective, the $1234 crossing confirms that all we had so far was just a bear market rally, and it is only a matter of time when the next price support also fails.

The next price support for this so called “bull” market is $1205.  Just so there is no doubt at all,  I will use below $1204 as the next price level when support fails. We have 4 to go for the entire trip, and the $1204 price level breach would complete two extremely important bull market support levels. Two out of four support failures still needs to get “taken out”, but when gold wants to start rolling down hill, you don’t want to get in it’s way, because from here on the stop loss “SELL” orders are piling up.

If you think the “gold dip buyers” are actually down there, don’t count on it, the gold bulls will turn on you and instantly turn into a bear as they scream “sell” at the hedge funds trading department. The hedge funds already dumped 700 tonne on the market, so do you think they are going to stay long after critical bull market support fails?

Those gold bulls will run south faster that we can think, pushing any retail gold bull out of the way as the gold price keeps crashing.  After the third support price level is taken out, then we are over the 50-50 support breach and the bearish sentiment (BS)  really starts rolling downhill. Then we only have one bull market support left to breach, at the $1047 price level.

After the $1047 price level fails then all argument about gold in a bull market will have failed as well. The implosion of the gold price will be on all the gold blogs and on your local TV news channel.  The gold bears are going to shred the gold bulls and eat them for breakfast, and I for one will be glad that I’m riding the gold bear down with short positions.

The problem with the $1234 crossing is that it leaves a big chunk of waves uncountable, and that you cannot have! It has no home folks, and therefore will destroy every bullish wave count they can dream up!  Those gold bull wave counting buckaroos, will get thrown off and they will use some lame fundamental excuse why their wave count is failing. Being able to bet on the markets going down ( short selling) with real money,  is a far more efficient use of any wave counts. If you don’t know how to “short sell”, then traders are only running at 50% efficiency at best!

About once a month I have a meeting with my friend “JP” who will retire in 2029 (SC Peak) and he knows my work very well. We can tie up a booth for hours and do detail analysis together. He understands the benefits of the ability to sell short any ETF when the time is right. I have 6 short positions out on gold and gold stock ETFs, so there is plenty of evidence that I’m testing my wave counts on a continuous basis. (Without the use of any stops!) I never use stops just like any other contrarian that I know. Shit if I were to use stops I would never be in the game as I would get kicked out all the time.

Much of my planning will be done with GDX , so I will talk more about planning for the biggest “knife catching tournament in gold’s history”!.  🙄

My friend JP is not a dummy he is very detail minded and he will spot major loopholes pretty quick. “JP” is also witnessing a bet I made on the direction of the gold price, no time limit just a very strict price limit. If Gold crashes below $1047 before it crosses $1400, he pays me a 10 ounce silver coin, worth about $242 CAD! If the gold price goes above $1400 then I pay him my silver 10 ounce coin. We have this bet documented which I will let my  friend JP witness.

I can get carried away in a gold post, but shit is going to hit the fan and lots of stuff will happen that nobody will be expecting, especially all those “complacent” gold bull investors.

 

Hits: 5

Gold 1992-2018 Review

Many do not believe that the gold price can crash (deflate) $500 in a year or by this fall, but history tells me that gold can crash $500 and it would just be a walk in the park.

Look back to 1992, when everyone on the planet was bullish on gold. Gold also went sideways for just about the same amount of time. The angle was much later and was much easier to read as a bear market rally. Total retracement confirmed it as a bear market rally.  I can’t confirm bear market rallies only the market can do that.

Any bear market rally must completely retrace it’s entire bullish phase from the point of orgin, by any small amount clearly visible. Charts differe in style so as long as its lower then, the bull market was confirmed as a gold bull trap. I deliberately kept off the little wave positions as there is no need to count it a thousand times. Technically I don’t have to fill out a single wave count until a major bottom has happened.  For the Elliott Wave fan that just loves a challenge look at the bottom of 1999 and you will see a “B” wave in Primary degree. The entire gold bull market was a “C” wave bull market which ended in 2011 at the $1920 price level.

There may be a few that have Cycle degree wave 3 as a top, but you will find nobody with a Primary “C” underneath it.  That harmless little “C” wave has powerful implications for Cycle degree wave 5, that will catch gold investors by surprise. It is the reason for any wild moves this market is going to get. We are in a Cycle degree bear market and we are far from over as this fall we may be just 1/3 of the way through it, which could end by 2021 or so.

The debate continues if we are in a bull market or not, but we don’t need an expert to tell us, when all we need to do is test the market by selling GLD short. Sit back and wait which positions shows you more “green”.  What will happen when you do that is the position will go against you, and you freak out, take a loss, and then GLD plunges leaving you with nothing, and you just missed a further drop in the price of gold.

I have tested many times before, and this time I’m testing the markets down with my short positions. Which will perform better in a potential crash, a bearish trading account or a bullish trading account?  I already tested it to the bullish side and it was a nightmare, so I bailed and took the loss. My Cycle degree wave counts in gold related assets are always being tested with real money, and the only way to stop testing is if I jump to all cash. (Panic Sell)  I will be talking mostly about GDX as my planning stages are in full swing to buy into GDX below $10.89. I will target 100 shares, maybe more. My share counts are geared to about a $13000 trading account, but $10,00o is the minimum you need to start with. Thirteen is also a Fibonacci number!  When you get your account to $21,000 you have made a Fibonacci 61% jump! $34,000 another 61% jump. I think you get the picture. Never retreat! 🙄

This gold market is going to get very violent, with wild swings the likes we have not seen before, and those who are not fully prepared will end up with little.

 

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Gold Intraday Update: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

I warned my friends of a possible gold price meltdown and only a few that know my charts well agree with me. I have small short positions on Gold/Oil related ETFs and have no plans to get out like a scared rabbit!  We are still a few dollars away from retracing #4. That proves that at least one section was just a bear market rally, which does not fit any proper wave count I have ever used. One out of four is soon to be a bear market rally with three to go, You can’t have just one bump out in the open like that.  We are also sitting at the 50-day MA with the 200-day MA. still well below us.  Emotional bullish complacent gold bugs, are sitting on one of the most bearish indicators in our tool box, yet they are oblivious to it, or wish to ignore them.

Gold travels in 30 year cycles and when we count from the 1980 peak and add 30 years we get close to 2011 plus or minus one year. When we add 30 years to 2011 we get 2041 for the next major peak. That would be Supercycle degree wave 3 peak, but it would end with Cycle degree wave 5 having to complete first. After this Cycle degree 4th wave finishes, it could turn into another zizag bull market. I also have a price forecast for gold for that 2041 peak, but I’m not going to post it all the time. Just because I’m super bearish on gold right now, doesn’t mean I eliminate all gold bull markets.

I find gold bugs to in love with there investments as I will have no hesitation in shorting gold if I figure gold is going to crash in a 5 wave sequence.  We still have time but I will trade GDX when the time is right. Right now its a short bet. There is a very easy way to test gold if it’s in a bear market rally or not, and that is to, “SHORT ” GDX with 100 shares or 50 like I have. Then sit back and see what happens by the end of 2018.

Any investor that is willing to trade waves when they arrive should at least have funding of $10,000 in Cad or USD trading accounts and access to US and Canadian markets when they start.

 

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Silver Monthly Chart: Death Cross Countdown!

I have personally dealt more with silver than gold on the street level which I will talk more about later down this page.  Silver is a prime example what a diagaonal bull market and bear market really looks like. The 1980 peak was an “A” wave peak in Primary degree followed by a Primary degree bear market that looks like it could have ended after a running triangle or real bad running zigzag. Diagonals in bear markets distort, so we have to remember that as well. Silver just barely squeaked into a new record high on a “C” wave bull market before,  it to collapsed with the 2011 peak at about the $48 price peak. At the 2011 peak $200-$300 silver forecasts were being made. That is just a regurgitated forecast of the 1970’s so there is nothing new with those two forecasts.

Our bear market in silver is not finished, no matter how much the silver bulls keep insisting it is!  Silver is in a 5 wave diagonal decline and needs a final plunge to land at another “A” wave in Primary degree. In short this is a Cycle degree 4th wave correction containing a zigzag with three Primary degree moves. (A,B,C)  I could have the perfect wave count and the majority will never use it to buy low! I’m sure the public will be freaking out as silver plunges to new record lows. You have to be prepared well in advance and I’ve already been planning for months.

Silver bullish investors do not realize that they are bullish standing on a platform that is about to collapse, and I can scream as loud as I want and nobody will listen.  They listen to the screaming bullish move scenarios first.

During the start of the 2001 bullish cycle we can see a Golden Cross (GC) Crossings are always delayed or lagging.  It’s just a matter of a trigger and silver will implode in price.

 

I have a silver 10 ounce  Canadian Coin that I have used to bet with and I hope silver prices will crash as I will buy some more of these beautiful coins. They are heavy coins but glisten when in the light.  My coin is locked in a bet,  until gold crashes below $1047  The house (friend) pays me a 10 ounce silver coin. If I had more coins I would take on more bets.

All this could take well into the fall to play out, so have patience and let the trade come to you. I never chase a bull market or double down in a bear markets, as those are real emotional acts.

Laying down big shorts after it has turned down will cost you big time with the counter rally and most of the time you end up with nothing or a loss.

We are going to see some extreme price swings and as long as we buy bullion at the bottom of crashes we bring down the average.

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IAU Impending Crash Review

IAU is a very popular ETF that tracks the price of gold. It acts very close to what I see in the cash futures charts and GLD is basically the same. Since the gold top in 2011, which corresponded with the first peak of solar cycle #24.  When this happens, it also tells me that 2011 was a major peak in gold, and I see it as a Cycle degree wave 3 top.  This top is so isolated that there should be no doubt about which peak is the real one.

All analysts forget this top as they think a new leg up has started. I see it as a bear market rally and an Intermediate degree bear market rally. If gold bulls are this easy to fool and can’t tell when a bear market rally has taken place, then any “B” wave bull market in primary degree will really confuse them.

I have experienced moves like this before where the bottom falls out and IAU implodes.  The rally that started in 2017 was choppy all the way up, as violent moves in both directions were happening. These choppy rallies are a clear sign that IAU has been going against the larger trend. I see it as a triangle inside a “B” wave of a zigzag 5th wave decline. There doesn’t even have to be any clear subdivisions as this is a potential “C” wave crash.

This morning I added a small short position in IAU, as it is a good time to test the next bearish phase. In most cases like this, the bottom trend line will get sliced in two, but it would find major support at the 2008 low. Most investors are never prepared for something like this to happen, but when bullish bets do not do what you expect, then you have to invert your thinking to the bearish side.

A long grinding summer bear market in gold stocks can happen, with a potential bottom in October or November 2018.

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Gold Weekly Chart $600 Crash Review

This is a large size posting so hopefully it will print out in much better detail. The debate between a gold bull market and a bear market rally continues. The majority will never know the difference, and even gold e-wavers get fooled by bear market rallies. A wave counting gold bug is always the easiest to fool, so when they get very bullish, then chances are I should be extremely bearish.

Thought I was talking about our present potential gold crash? Not it’s the 2012-2013 $600 gold crash I’m referring to.  In 2008 it was only a $300 crash, which was just a bull market correction. Once we were over on the bearish side then gold doubled it’s crash price decline. This all stands to reason as a bearish decline will produce some amazing moves that few people expect.  If you check back to the very beginning in early 2016, I was suspecting a huge bear market rally and always had an “A” at the 2016 peak most of the time.  In order for gold to still be in a bigger bullish phase, it must break out over the $1375 price level before it sees $1047 again.  What are you betting on, which price target will come in first. The $1400 price level or the $800 price level?

The entire 2017-2018 slow grinding rally is a “B” wave containing a triangle. It is amazing how e-wavers can turn a bear market rally into a bull market. There are a host of other things that make me very bearish on gold and one of them is the 50-200 SMA Death Cross. (DC) A Death Cross is a very bearish indicator and ignoring it will slaughter the gold bulls with no remores. Gold will be brutal on speculators that are on the wrong side right now.

Gold has a history of having big crashes, so a $500 gold crash would be just a walk in the park for gold. For gold stock and gold ETF investors it will become a nightmare getting caught in another gold stock meltdown.

I have always said that this mythical $1047 price level is a fake bottom, as there is “NO” bull market support for it. Now the $700 $800 price level, sure does!

700 Tonnes of gold got dumped last week  by bullish speculators as they were all piled into the long side. Hedge funds getting into a panic and dumping their long positions. Speculators have a long way to go in dumping gold. They are into a bull trap that they can’t get out unless they unload gold. Speculators in the COT reports are always on the wrong side at the extremes, as they are the trend chasers and create their own traps!

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Gold Daily Chart: Just $5 More To Go!

Since the 2016 gold bottom of $1047, Gold has been in a very bullish phase but has now seen a top and has started to crash.  I say that markets are always right when they go up or down, It’s our opinions of the markets are always wrong at the extremes. The undying rule I use about bear market rallies is, they always must retrace their entire bullish phase, from their point of orgin. Short term I will use $1124 bottom as the start of this bullish phase. I see that there are three downside prices that must get retraced. As each price level gets breached one smaller bearish rally gets confirmed by the markets. All we need is a little $5 drop. When counting down 3, 2, 1, number three, will be confirmed a bear market rally soon.

Gold is leaving the 50-200 day SMA Death Cross behind, but two more bear rallies must still be confirmed. The entire daily chart is a single “B” wave containing a triangle. Every waver knows what can happen after the triangle has completed. The triangle is telling me that one higher degree must start once this gold crash starts coming to an end.

( November, December?)

I will do the two that are remaining as well, but they will be attached to the bottom of this page. A big herd of gold bulls are going to have to switch directions. When they start screaming, “downside breakout” in unison. This bearish decline has a long way to go, but when it hits bottom, then a massive counter rally should happen.

From any ugly bottom which may happen this year, we could see yet another bear market rally, which could send the price of gold to $1800, plus or minus $100. The next major bottom will only be 1/3 of a Cycle degree correction completed, as we would still have two more to go.

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Silver Monthly Chart: Waiting For The Death Cross!

On the weekly and daily charts the Death Cross in Silver has already happened. Going back to a monthly chart shows us a different picture.  Any downside at all in silver will force the 50 day SMA into the 200 day line, and next thing you know we have a very bearish condition in silver, along with gold/oil and other currencies.

Down at the bottom in 2004 the Golden Cross started with the 50 day shooting up.  Look how far silver went on just one Golden Cross. If we keep the same sequence the Death Cross should come next.  The 50-200 SMA crossings are all lagging indicators, but I would say they work extremely well as confirm indicators.

Many are confinced silver is in a bull market and they are all waiting for a breakout heading north.  Sorry, but the markets will never do what the majority want, so it must head south instead.  When we are in a long position, but things do not progress as you would like, then quickly switch to look for the bearish signals, and see what makes more sense.

No matter what, the markets are “always right”.  It’s our opions or premises that are always wrong. In order for this bull market to just be in a bear market rally, silver has to confirm it by completley retracing its entire bullish move.  A storm is forming in the EU zone as their money printing habits have force people to flee the Euro.

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SLV 2011-2018 Bear Market Review.

Silver peaking 2011 along with most all other related ETFs. This 2011 peak barely created a new record high, so couldn’t kep up to gold even though everyone was chearing silver on to do so. Calls of $200 silver were common. Yet what did SLV do, it ignored all the bullish news an then started to decline which now has turned into a long grinding bear market. This isn’t even very long as several in the past have taken 13 years to decline.  With Death Cross counts going up I just don’t see silver going anywhere but down.

The above chart only has a 50 day line, and SLV is having a real problem getting above it. The 50 day average line is hard to push up as it only succeeded several times for a short period of time.  Impulse declines don’t behave in this angle as, 5 wave impulse declines would be much steeper. I’m pretty sure the markets will bring us a much steeper decline in the future.   Everyone may not understand a bear market, but I use a very direct description that has no room for error.

Every bear market rally must retrace the entire bullish move, starting back from its origin.($13) SLV has done this many times in its bigger bearish phase, and I think its going to do it one more time.

I also have made a very important change to the 2011 top where ther now is a Primary Degree “C” wave and then Cycle degree wave 3 as my highest degree.

By no means does it change any present day wave count, but it sure will impact wave 5 in Cycle degree. Until then we are going to get some wild reversals and if  traders are not on the ball or be prepared far in advance, they will certainly miss any bull party that will happen.

From where SLV might land at, I would expect about a 70-80% counter rally.  Of Course the majority will never get that because they will get freaked out on the dips.  In Order to get that you have to get good at catching a falling knife!  This phrase is meant to scare you away from ever trying it so very few today practice buying low.

When I read that staement, Catching a Falling Knife”, I ask, “Who in fricken hell is dropping the knife?  🙄 The person that has dropped the knife is the emotional investor freaking out  as he can no longer afford to hold his position. Or it’s the short artist that’s dropping the knife. I presently have small short positions out on gold/oil related assets, so I would also be a knife dropper.

Only fear will keep many traders away as you have to be prepared for asset values to fall like leaves of a tree in the autumn. You might think thats stupid, but thats exactly how it was during the 2008 gold stock crash.

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Gold Weekly Chart: Waiting For the Death Cross!

I believe gold is giving us a hard time because it was just in a bear market rally, and not on some other path that has gold prices going to the moon.  Gold $1600-$1900 is going to the moon. I have a problem with that as Death Crosses are a serious lagging indicator. It took just about 3 years for the Death Cross to show in this weekly gold chart, which makes the Death Crosses a lagging indicator. Now the Golden Cross has completed a year after a good buying bottom has arrived. This is far too late to be any use to wave analysis as trades should be executed long before them.  The 200-50 day moving average only confirms a bear or bullish mood after the fact. The EWP will forecast any impending Death or Golden Crosses, as there seems to be two Death Crosses that show up in a 5 wave decline.

One more gold Death Cross with this weekly chart will happen, even if it takes 6 months. Gold bugs don’t know that gold is in a bearish rally as they force turning a bear market rally into a bull market. Wow, they can make those little numbers and letters fly and turn a choppy rally into a impulse bull market.  Nobody knows what a bear market rally is and what has to happen to confirm that a bear rally did happen. Every bear market rally always retraces its entire bullish phase from the point of orgin. This is the gold $1047 price level. I can just hear the shrieks that the gold price would crash, but there is absolutely nothing down at that $1047 price level that supports the end of any bear market. Price never dictates when a bear market comes to an end. It’s the pattern that dictates where any price level can land at, not some preconceived price stopping point.

Nobody knows what wave count that the 2011 gold peak really is, so it’s impossible to figure out what type of bear market we are going to get.  I spent the last 10 years trying to figure that out, and found out the hard way, where a Cycle degree wave 3 peak could find a new home.  Commodities are “ALL” in the diagonal famaily, while the big stock markets are in the clean version of impulse patterns.  Ignoring the 2011 peak is a big mistake as that is where all wave analysts should be counting from.

From the 2011 peak, I’m working a Cycle degree zigzag that will be about the third of the way through this Cycle degree zigzag correction. Gold is going to make some wild moves beyond anything the gold bugs are expecting where as a price free fall could land gold at the $750 price level. Gold $800 is where the real support is as $1047 just doesn’t cut it.

Gold will never protect you in deflation, it can only protect you from inflation, if you buy gold low enough. To say that gold is still going to soar don’t realize a massive capital destructive hurricane is on it’s way. It could erase $100 trillion in world assets. Money distruction on a scale far worse than anything in 2007. Money distruction means deflation, not inflation.

The US dollar is in better shape than the Euro, Japan or China so the US dollar is acting out it’s safe-haven status. Escaping from the Euro destruction will send the USD soaring.

When gold crashes to $800 at least we have one potential base line. From this $750 base,  gold would soar once again. It will be at least one degree bigger than what we had. This too will be just another gold bear market rally, but gold could still soar to the $1800 price level first.

I did not fill in any of the little wave positions this time, as I have online records of doing that already. Gold is just a bit more than $200 away from crashing the $1045 price level, which it can do in a blink of an eye. (Silver about $2 away) Nobody tells you that gold crashed $300 back in 2008, so they think it can’t happen again. GDX got crushed in its price, so expect more of the same this time around.  All the currencies that support the price of gold are imploding folks, as Death Crosses show up on thier daily charts. If you don’t know how bad a Death Cross can be, then we’re  going to find out the hard way. I have some gold stock ETF short positions that I’m holding, so a rapid switch will have to take place when the ETFs hit bottom.

Only those people that are prepared to buy into a bottom, or catch a falling knife will benefit, as the majority of investors will hate gold stocks when they have been fire bombed.

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Death Cross In Gold?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-cross-appears-in-gold-for-first-time-since-2016-even-as-stock-market-slumps-2018-06-25

I tried to capture the Death Cross on gold’s daily chart, and it clearly shows how lagging this information really is. The Head and Shoulder line gave us an early warning that this may happen. Having to wait a month or two after the perfect buying or selling time, is far too late to execute. The vertical spikes into the peaks are the best selling signals long before the trend creates a ‘Death Cross’. I’m sure we will get an unexpected short term reaction, but this decline is far from over.

Counting the 2017 rally as an impulse is breaking every rule in the Wave Principle. I have a wave count from another e-waver that has the 2016 low as a wave 2 in Intermediate degree.  Yikes! Turning a diagonal or even a triangle wave structure into an impulse, is truly a Wizard of OZ type of a trick.

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Gold Crash Daily Chart Update

Many do not expect a bigger decline in gold and gold stocks, but that is always the case when prices have been pointing up.  Where we think gold is going too means little if we don’t understand bear market rallies.  The sooner that we except that this rally is just a bear market rally, then the sooner we could have taken evasive action. Like, close off long trades and even switch to a downside bearish position. Of curse that is already getting to be on the late side, because if we to short now this market will come back hard and force you out of the trade.

I show two arrows one long one and one very small arrow in October and November of 2017.  This small November bullish move is much the same as in the long arrow but it’s a small “C” wave, as for the big one it’s a triangle in a “B” wave.  That small “C” wave crashed right into December, completely retracing the entire “C” wave bullish phase.

What happens once in the charts, I use it at all degree levels. I see no reason why something at a very small scale, should not happen on a bigger scale.  To count this out as a bull market while being oblivious to diagonal wave counting, is a huge mistake which I try my best to avoid.

From late 2016 this bullish phase has been very choppy, and now gold has started to confirm my suspcions.  A triangle in a 5th wave decline can only happen in a  5th wave diagonal zigzag decline. This triangle is actually a very good long term sign as when it’s all over, then we should expect a much bigger bullish run by at least one degree higher. Patterns rule in the markets, not prices. Could you see the gold bull market coming when the price of gold hit $1050?  Did you see the recent crash coming when gold was at the $1360-$1375  price level? Not until someone suggests it and gives you adequate warning will it make anyone think twice.

Why should gold reach for the sky when oil is refusing to join in. If this scenerio is going to happen then my Gold/Oil ratio would go beserk. That ratio moves very little in short time periods, and it sure is not showing up in the Gold/Oil ratio I track.

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Gold Daily Chart: Bear Attack Update!

One thing I love about the waves in gold is that the have the ability to always move against the majority, when they least expect it to. Is this gold crash going to be called an unexpected correction, or was the entire move just another bear market rally? If we look back to the late 2016 low, followed by a rally. This bullish phase has so many overlapping waves that it is hard to find a single good impulse wave structure.  This type of pattern is what we would get when an asset class runs against its own larger trend. I’ve seen wave counts where the wave analsyts  turn all these waves into pure impulse waves, and therefore forecast a big bull market yet to come. Gold sure looks like it wants to head south not north so my bearish outlook remains.

This bullish pattern above can fit into a triangle which ended at the magic number of $1360. Any triangle in a “B” wave rally is very bearish as a “C” wave crash should follow.  The top resistance line also produced at least 3 H&S patterns.  Since my triangle is a Minor degree triangle then at the next big low, my degree level has to go up by at least one degree.

Most of the time it would be a two-degree change which will be the case for gold. Sure we have a long way to go, but gold can move $100-$200 with little effort. In silver this “B” wave is much lower and just as distorted.  For the entire 2017 bullish phase to be confirmed as a bear market rally, gold would still have to crash below $1120.

Last week the commercial traders added to thier short positions which is not a bullish indicator but a very bearish one.  If oil keeps on crashing like it has been doing, then I don’t see any reason why the Gold/Oil ratio will not drag gold down with it.  In any potential mini pani,  investors could end up selling everything in a desperate “dash for cash” once they realize that the gold bull market is crumbling all around them.

This could take until the September, October time period for all this to play out, so patience is the key this summer.

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Gold Crashes Joining Oil in the Decline.

Gold refuses to soar as forecast by the “Crystal ball readers of Wall Street”. Instead gold crashes right along with oil this morning. Sure, the $1300 price level had importance but now it’s more like a major resistance price level. The markets love even numbers so gold $1200 could be the next even number price target. Gold still has to retrace two sets of previous lows before it even gets close to $1200. By then anything can still happen.  Gold needs for the US dollar to turn real bearish, to provide the push in gold prices.

This has not happen regardless of what the gold bulls have been forecasting. When an asset class moves in a direction we do not expect, then we don’t throw out the idealized road map, but must take a new reading in where we think we are. Gold looks more like a triangle pattern but it does not fit into a 4th wave. It works as another zigzag decline, but my degree level still may need adjusting.   As we can see gold can crash dramatically when it wants to, and you can bet someone will always blame some fundamental news why gold also crashed.  These gold bearish moves is not a surprise if we look at gold as just one big bear market rally. Even gold could have established it’s 2018 record high with gold $1375.

A move like this reverberates through many other asset classes, so it’s never just about one asset class, but many of them will react during the same time.

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Gold Intraday $1300 Price Update

The $1300 price level seems to be the magic number at this time, like $1360 was way back in April. Will the $1300 price level hold? I doubt it as price has little meaning while pattern is everything. I have started into the next higher degree 5 wave sequence which may still have more to go. It’s not the only proability as another zigzag decline can also be in progress. Gold does not look like it wants to go ballistic like many gold bulls are hoping will happen. Gold refuses to play that game as it’s been grinding its way down for a few months already.   It all depends on what we believe our understanding of what a bear market rally is and how it acts.  Conventional wisdom allows any upside move to be called a bull market, but from an Elliott Wave perspective all bear market rallies get completley retraced.

These bear market rallies can only be Primary degree or less as my largest degree is Cycle degree. Oil is a great example how a big bullish phase can hoodwink all of us into believing a bullish trend can go on forever!  No trend lasts forever as they will always turn against the most skewed trade set-ups all the time.  Gold has been struggling to go higher since the December 2016 bottom, which usally means that gold has been in a rally against the main trend. Since the 2011 peak gold has been meandering down in what looks like a 5 wave sequence but until we look at this decline from a diagonal perspective, what I count out will make little sense.  The mass media attention to gold is blinding us from looking at silver and even gold related ETFs.

Any move in silver has been lethargic at best, and is still miles away from breaking out to a new record high. I’m not going to spew out the same retoric as the gold bulls are doing becuase if I do, we end up in the same trap as the majority. I follow about a dozen gold and silver stock related ETFs and they’ve all have been acting like they are hung over after a wild drinking party.

The US dollar has been correcting but that may have its limits. The Euro has been taking a beating at the same time, but for gold to soar, we need a huge bullish phase in the Euro, and other US dollar inverse related currencies. An Intermediate degree bear market rally is enough to fool the majority while even a simple Minor degree bear market rally will send bullish analysts of on a tangent.

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Gold Monthly Chart 1980-2011 Primary Degree Review

I don’t like drawing trend lines most of the time because the trend lines do get abused to the point where they have lost their meaning and effectiveness. For well over a decade I counted all markets from a GSC degree perspective and thought little that the 1980 gold peak was nothing but a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. After all the 1980 gold crash produced a 20 year bear market, which many analysts called a secular bear market. Many GSC degree wave analysts never saw the 2000-2011 gold bull market coming as they were still bearish when gold hit $1000 in 2008.  They missed most of the gold bull market before they changed their minds and started an impulsive wave count.

There is no way that we should miss a gold bull market that was so big it took until 2011 to finish. This is when any Cycle degree wave 3-4 should have been thrown out but yet the majority of wave analysts still maintain gold as a Cycle degree wave 3-4, or worse SC degree wave 3-4. I have looked at gold with both degree sets but now look at gold from a Primary degree wave 3-4-5, for the 1980-2011 time period. This shifted the Cycle degree peak ahead by 21 years, and at the sane time-shifted any SC and GSC degree peaks much further into the future. Being out by just one degree, means the diffrenece between catching a major bull market or missing it entirely.

Reviewing this 1980-2011 time period and its wave count is very important to understand. I use the wording “Must” often and it has the same meaning as any basic EWP rule. EWP rules cannot be broken or ignored. Once I replaced the 2000 gold bottom with a Primary degree bottom then we know that 5 waves in Intermedeate degree must develop to complete the 5th wave in Primary degree. It was a very choppy ride with a big 2008 crash and correction that took most all other asset classes with it. Gold, oil, gold stocks and the general stock market imploded together.  The 2008 crash coincided well with the end to solar cycle #23 as well.

Of course many will never accept the idea of a Cycle degree peak in 2011, but I do. To confirm the gold market bearish phase it has to give us a very specific wave count. We always have 5 choices, but only 3 simple corrective patterns. Flats, Zigzags and Triangles make up this list. At this time we are looking at about 30 Cycle degree markets, with all the commodaties seeming to be in zigzag patterns in different stages.  There are a few that sure look like Cycle degree triangles, which is a rather rare pattern.

In 2016 we saw another bottom in the gold price at $1050, which many assume is the start of a new huge mega gold bull market. Sorry folks, ain’t going to happen on this trip, as the $1050 price is not nearly low enough to justify the completion of any 4th wave in Cycle degree. Our recent bullish phase may only be a 4th wave rally so until that clears up I will remain bearish in the shorter term.

It may take all summer for this pattern to clear up, after which another big gold counter rally will arrive, but it will be one degree higher. One degree can produce a 61% difference in price projections, and a quick calculation could send gold and gold stocks 61% above that mid-2016 peak. Once Cycle degree wave 4 is finished then I have no problem talking about a fuure $2300 gold price. If I mention that price too many times now, readers can make the mistake of thinking $2300 is just around the corrner.

Our recent Opec Oil bear attack slashed the oil price down to size, and sooner or later gold will not maintian its price. Gold to head north while oil heads south, is a poor excused to maintain a bullish gold forecast, as the Gold/Oil ratio will not allow for this to happen.

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Gold Intraday Crash Review $1300 Price Level Busted!

This morning gold crashed about $23 breaking the $1300 price level with ease. I mentioned that this was a very high probability and this morning it happened. We still have a bit to go as 5th waves tend to extend dramatically at times. I dropped my degree level down one degree of this 5 wave run, but I have to stay below Minor degree as we may still have to deal with a zigzag in Minute degree. The $1300 price level was a mental support price for all the bullish price action that was supposed to make gold soar. Gold is soaring alright, but in the wrong direction.

The US dollar also spiked higher this morning as I believe it’s a bullish phase is also far from over. In the near term for this summer and into the fall, I will remain bearish. In the past, gold has had few problems with moving $200 at a time in both directions. This decline is far from over, but we have to be aware that violent reversals can happen at any time, even if they may be temporary reversals.

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Gold Intraday Rally Review

In April gold created a spike to the upside and then proceeded to crash or go into a bearish phase. As soon as the May rally started gold opened with wave structures that overlap each other. This also makes it a candidate for a triangle. Gold stocks acted lethargic to this bullish phase, so they are not impressed with gold’s recent move.  This sure could make the $1302 just a temporary resting spot as another leg down should follow. My 5 wave decline in Minute degree may be a bit too large, but that can always be adjusted later on. I will keep my Intraday postings during the week, (Tuesday-Friday) as it is critical to spend time on my larger degree pictures as well.  Any site will give you short term trade setups as they are as popular as bathing suits in the summer!

No way will I spend my time giving readers short term trade setups as that is not what I use the EWP for. Any kid with the EWP book and a ruler, can give you short term trade setups.  Flipping numbers and letters around like we flip hamburgers is not my cup of tea.

So for now gold is acting bullish but this will not last as that $1300 price level should still get crushed!

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Gold Weekly Chart: 2011-2018 Bear Market Review

The Gold bull market soared until mid 2011, before it slipped into a grinding bear market. At that 2011 peak of about $1919,  I was still possessed by the SC  and GSC degree demons along with everyone else. It wasn’t until 2013 that I started switching “all” my wave counting over to a Cycle degree perspective.

Since Cycle degree comes before SC degree, all 5 waves in Cycle degree “must” be found first, before we can move into “any” brave new world of SC degree.  Gold just crossed into the new world of Cycle degree wave 4 in late 2011, and wev’e been hunting for a bottom ever since.  I think we are still far away from a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom in gold, but a Primary degree “A” wave sure looks promising.

I started with the above wave count many times, so it’s not something I picked out of a top hat. The challenge is always to figure out where we are in the corrective phase,  and not to get into a bull trap on a big fake bull run! A “bear market rally” would be a better term for it, and you have to remember that “all” bear market rallies eventually retrace the entire bullish phase from which they started from.

In the case of gold the late 2015 bottom ended at $1050, before gold charged up and then started to die.  Any future gold price dip below $1050 would confirm that our present bullish phase had been a bull trap.  All three parallel trend lines are based on the bottom line, then without changing any of the angles the top line matches the peaks very well. Within the rising wedge I have, the patterns are some of the wildest patterns I have ever seen, which does not fit into any bull market. Choppy rallies are usually signs of a rally going against the trend. Gold is now trapped in the cone of a rising wedge and some dramatic move has to happen for gold to break out, and show us its true path that is still in progress. I could be wrong here, but I love these setups before they happen. This wave count will be at odds even to my closest friends, so we need far more evidence of further declines to have the confidence in a fake bull market.

Silver would still have a long way to go to catch up with gold, as its pattern is far worse than gold. I don’t believe in the catch-up theory as they used that excuse many times before in 2011. What investors forget is that in 2008, Stocks, Oil and all gold related asset classes crashed together for a short period of time, and to say that this cannot happen again is not based on financial history. Most of the big swan dives that gold has taken in the past, have worked out close to $200 moves, which sure can cut our present $1314 gold price down to size.

I dislike drawing simple trend lines, but identifying  a rising wedge before all others see it, works to our advantage.

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Gold Daily Chart Review

Since December 2016 gold has displayed one ugly advance that only a mother could love! During the 2016 crash we could have a 3 wave crash, which allows the $1375 price peak to be broken to the upside this summer. If gold does breakout then the entire move,  would be called a “C” wave bull market in Minor degree.  At best this would allow gold to soar in the shorter term, but it still looks like a 4th wave rally to me, when counting from the late 2015 bottom.

This would keep money out of the markets, as I don’t chase bull markets when trading ETFs. I think the media focus on gold is blinding us to the potential for gold to finish a big bear market rally of Intermediate degree wave 4.

Just the fact I mention an Intermediate degree 5 wave pattern is a clear message to readers, that this blog has passed into the world of a Cycle degree 4th wave correction. I use a strict “rule” that no 5th wave should ever be left uncapped, and if you find one of my 5th waves uncapped, then send it to me and I will redo it. Actually capping the 5th wave is built into the EWP, I just emphasized it as a strict rule.

The big $1050 bottom has not even touched the previous 4th wave yet, so don’t get all cranked up about a $5000 or $10,000 gold price forecast coming soon!

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Silver Daily Chart: The Short Term Bearish Case Review

The mass media has been brainwashing us with gold bullish stories and some even have a $1550 gold price target like I had. Except for one problem and that is silver refuses to play along and has consistently lagged behind gold for the past year. Silver should have hit $20 if it joined the gold rush, but silver did not follow through.  The experts come up with the idea that silver is going to wake up and surprise us all, by playing “catch up” to gold.

The idea of silver catching up is a myth by any stretch of the imagination which has been used as an excuse why silver is lagging.  Back in 2011 they were waiting for gold stocks to “catch up ” to gold but they never did. Silver has a year long trend that has produced at least three sets of Head&Shoulder patterns, which are hard to ignore. If we were in a much bigger bullish phase, then each one of the right shoulders would lift the top trend line higher.

Silver has refused to do this as after each right shoulder the silver market has pushed down. This is the sign of a bear, not a bull. We also have a sideways wedge with silver getting very close to slicing the rising trend line in two. At $16.10 our present little rally will be confirmed as a bearish rally. Silver still has two very critical bottoms to retrace, and they are pretty close to each other. $15.50 and $15.20 could also get retraced. When silver retraces the $15.20 price level, then from my perspective silver jumps back into the unfinished bearish territory. From todays levels, silver still has to crash well below $14 which is only about $3 below present prices.

Silver has no problem crashing $3 at a crack so that could happen in rapid succession. $13 is also a great Fibonacci number. Below that $14 price level silver will have completely retraced its so called bull market, but then it would also be ready for a major new stronger bullish phase.

Sure, I’m a silver bull, but if the market is telling me that the bearish phase is not finished, I want to be aware of it. I’m also fully aware that I am going against the mainstream media bullish bias, but I have been in those situations many times before.

I was very bearish when experts were calling for a $200 silver price, from the 2011 peak, but their forecasts went south instead.

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Silver Daily Chart Update: Bull Trap?

This is a daily chart but I have increased the bar count from a normal 500 to 1500 which stretches this daily chart. This way the top wave 2 in Intermediate degree is showing.  Silver is not even close to looking like gold and I don’t think it is going to catch up. Catching up rarely happens as silver works much better as a leading indicator to what gold is going to do.

Since the 2016 peak, silver has executed a grinding bear market, which does work as a triangle in a “B” wave. Silver also has a wedge that is horizontal, further compounding the forecast in which way silver can go.  We do have a few waves that show higher lows, but that could be just a “D” wave.  Short term gold and silver can fall right along with crude oil.  The fact that silver has been struggling to gain bullish momentum also helps any bearish outlook.  Any “C” wave, crash, can happen so fast it will surprise us all.  I don’t like surprises, so it’s always a good idea to look for them before they happen.

If the bearish 4th wave scenario is true, then the silver market has to crash to new lows, even by a very small amount.

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