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Category Archives: PRECIOUS METALS

Palladium Daily Chart Record High Review

Since August 2018 Palladium finished a correction and then started to soar. Palladium produced decent corrections during this time. I believe we are coming to the end of this bullish cycle as on January 17 palladium peaked at $1430 and then proceeded into another correction. Many may think it will be a correction but a bigger bear market will push palladium prices much deeper than anyone can imagine at this time.

In January 2018 palladium also peaked and a 7-8 month bear market ensued.  The entire palladium Cycle degree Idealized wave count is diagonal, so another Primary degree zigzag bear market can happen and they happen when market players least expect.

If this wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree is true, then the 4th wave bottom in August 2018 will never hold.  Palladium might give us temporary support at $830 but bigger support would be closer to the $500-$600 price level.

You will read many stories about the palladium supply shortage with forecasts that prices will be much higher this year. I’ve heard all that “fundamental logic”  many times before in gold and oil, and still, the market in question crashed. All we need is for buyers to take a rest and all the protective sell stops can start to get hit.  All the bullish traders suddenly turn into palladium bears and the analysts will start telling us the change in fundamentals. Fundamentals are lagging indicators and you just have to be patient and the analysts will find you a reason why palladium is crashing.

The crowd loves to buy high, and they can get convinced to be “bullish” just when they should be very bearish. The COT reports are just about one month old, but commercials were net short in late December 2018 already. Not until the shut down is over and done with will the COT reports get updated.

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Gold Daily Chart: Bullish Review

Since the August 2018 bottom of $1160, gold started to make its present-day run. This came close to $1300 with a total run length of about $140. In the last day or so gold has started to retreat a bit. This run was choppy as waves overlapped and destroyed any true impulse we may have had. The gold bulls are confident that gold will still travel much further, but they need for gold to break out above the $1400 price level just to confirm that gold is still in a bull market.  The only way I can see that gold will continue is if the $1160 bottom was a “B” wave in Intermediate degree.   The COT reports are old as the government shut down has not produced any reports since December 20, 2018.

This diagonal set of 5 waves has to produce a “Correction”, in order for gold to produce two more legs up. How deep this correction can go, can always fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. Of course where this previous 4th wave of one lesser degree actually is, is just an opinion at best. Folks, gold can crash in a 60%-70% net move that could send gold back down to the $1200 price level. $1200 is a psychological number and if gold dropped down below $1200 the gold bugs would start to get pretty agitated.

We are still in the Death Cross zone with this daily chart, and gold would have to keep soaring in order for the Golden Cross to become real.  On A weekly chart, gold is now well above both MA lines with the 200-day MA support being at $1234. Sure gold stocks have moved up as well but, they sure are acting like they don’t care about the gold price surge.  We have one gap open below present prices, which should get closed once gold retraces below $1270.

This entire move could still be a bear market rally and a complete retracement of the $1160 price level would have to happen.  What the majority don’t understand is that the 2011 peak in the gold price was a gold and silver price mania/bubble that only comes along once every 30 years or so.  Gold peaks of 1920, 1950, 1980 and 2011 follow Cycle and Primary degree moves, with the next big top being closer to 2041 when Cycle degree wave 5 is also due.

Those that did not pay attention or record all the mania readings during 2010-2011, will think we are in a normal gold correction and a new leg up is in the “Bag”, so to speak.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is very good at recording these moods and I will insert their gold chart below.

 

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Silver Daily Chart Review

When we look at the last 2 years we can see the angle of the pattern sloping down.  This is nothing like what gold has done as gold has a much more bullish angle to it. It’s gold that is brainwashing us while silver only saw it’s a new record low in November of 2018. That would make the silver bull market just about 6 weeks old.  The record low in silver sure looks like an expanded pattern, so technically we could see silvers retrace its entire bullish move.

The bullish side of silver has already started to back off, so now we wait and see how deep any correction may take us.  “Correction” is a loose term as the silver decline has to make a pattern that can show a decent counter-rally in the next month or so. Vertical moves like this cannot be maintained, especially if this also was a run to safe-haven. Fear moves rarely last that long as they can crash faster than they went up!   The huge gap that opened up is a big hint that silver could crash to close off this gap which could take all of January to happen.

This Friday we get new government COT reports but Decembers report had commercials still building short positions. I follow two sites as they both have a bit of difference but it shows the net short positions in a more visual.

The commercial bearish outlook sure doesn’t inspire me to get all warm and fuzzy about a bull market with no end!  Since 2018, the commercial hedgers only have had net long positions 6 times.

Silver has also sliced through the 200-day MA which it has done many times before, after which silver crashed each time. The 50-day MA is at the $14.50 price level and if the bearish move returns then the 50-day MA will provide little support. Any price drop below $13.88 would definitely confirm this bullish phase as one giant bull market fake or bear market rally. Any bear market rally always retraces back to the point of origin and the only difference is the degree. If the majority can get fooled with just a Minute degree bullish phase, then the larger degree bear market rallies can easily trap the bulls.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Year End Update!

I still have a “B” wave peak in Minor degree as the decline could fit into a diagonal 5 wave sequence.  It is priceless to see gold scream higher and end in a near vertical spike to the upside at the end of the month and the end of a year.  Even though gold gave us an impressive run so far, I believe a correction is due.  Of course, this correction may never happen if the entire move in gold was just a bear market rally!   Gold sliced through the 200-day MA on this daily chart, but on the weekly chart gold just hit the 200-day MA. That hints of resistance which matches many of the peaks in 2017.

I labeled the Aug/Dec run as a triangle which can happen in 4th waves, but the exact same wave count can double as a diagonal set of 5 waves with a degree adjustment. A potential diagonal wave one will still force a substantial correction for gold, where gold can crash back down to the $1200 price level before it cranks up again.  This move has the look of a “fear” run as it started at the same time stocks started to move to the downside.   Gold would have to travel much further before a Golden Cross is created. The 50-day may not reach the 200-day MA before gold turns down again.

The December 20th COT reports showed that the commercials were making a very bearish move by adding to their already net short positions. At the same time, the commercial hedgers removed long positions which just adds to their bearish outlook. We’re not at any extreme but it sure does not support any huge bullish phase still to come. Gaps to the upside have opened up, so they will get filled before gold can keep heading north.

Meanwhile, the speculators are taking the exact opposite side of the trade as they are chasing this bull market. FOMO is a very powerful motivator, but emotional moves seemed to have a limited lifespan.

Silver has also soared with the COT reports showing the same moves as with gold.  2019 is a new year and we could get a new direction in gold as well.  Gold peaked in 2011 which matches the first peak in solar cycle #24, this peak was not some little peak in an ongoing bull market, but it was a once in 30-year mania peak.  In this case, it was 30 +1 years from the 1980 peak. 1950 was the previous peak all matching Cycle degree peaks. Do not underestimate the power of the solar cycles on gold as solar cycle turnings seemed to attract but can also alternate by repelling.

2011 was a wave 3 peak in Cycle degree so until I see a complete zigzag or flat coming to an end, I will look for the bearish moves.

Commodities run on a different idealized diagonal pattern than what stocks do, and it was the Roaring 20’s when impulse waves started to take over and the choppiness of commodities disappeared.

Have a Safe and Happy New Year!

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Palladium Daily Chart Cycle Degree Peak Review.

Yesterday Dec 5, 2018, palladium spiked to the upside and then instantly reversed. I was anticipating such a move as palladium finished a new world record high at about the $1245 price level. This is only about an $8 difference from the gold price.  I believe traders are set up in another bull trap and they will panic to try and get out. You can bet that protective sells stops are piling up below the entire length of this 5th wave. Also, computer trading programs can kick in at any time.

The commercials were net short by a good margin (3.68:1) which eventually will kill any bull market. The last 5th wave in Minor degree works well as a diagonal, which is more like a joke as the entire bull market in palladium were all diagonal wave structures.

A Cycle degree wave 3 top will produce a big bear market that at this point in time, could turn into a great looking zigzag. From here on some intraday wave counting would need to be done which I do with my finger pointing at my screen. (Air Wave Counting) Also after a sufficient decline, I can print out a 90 min intraday chart and take my sweet time looking at the entire wave structure.

Since the January 2018 peak a Death Cross formed followed by a Golden Cross, so the next crossing should be another Death Cross which has a way to go before that happens. This is not going to be little correction folks, so don’t get caught in some wishful bull market that will not arrive.

The only time we may get a buy signal is when we arrive at a Primary degree “A” wave. Even a Minor degree “A” wave bottom is pretty dangerous, with an Intermediate degree “A” wave bottom only being a bit better.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Rally Update And The Death Cross!

 

The gold Death Cross on this daily chart happened around the $1305 price level. Fundamental analysts don’t have a clue about what a Death Cross is or the long-term damage that they forecast. Gold was well below the 50-day MA but now has found a bit of support with the 50-day MA.  The 200-day MA is still far away before the 50-day slices into the 200-day MA.  The 5 waves I show are all diagonal wave structures so the 5th wave is also a small zigzag. I’m going to stay with the same degree level even though I only had about 3-degree levels to work with. I stay with 15-degree levels as when I run out at Miniscule degree, then I know that all degree levels may need a second look.

Switch this gold chart to a weekly chart and we can see gold sitting at the 50-day MA.

Since the August bottom of $1160, gold looks like a triangle, but we should not get a triangle in a wave 1-2 positions. Any break above $1240 will work to finish off the last zigzag wave.

Gold is fooling us as silver has gone the opposite way and was on the cusp of creating a new bear market low. Last weeks COT report still have the commercials net short in gold and silver which does not get me excited about some super bullish move still to come. Three or four gold stock ETFs have already created new record lows, so it’s not just one thing that I look at.

Commercial hedgers are short in palladium, platinum, copper, and aluminum, which is also very bearish in the longer term.

 

 

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Palladium 1980-2018 Review

If you have never seen a wild and choppy bull market then here’s one. Not until I applied diagonal wave counting to all my commodities did this pattern make any sense. We just hit a new record high at about $1178, and Palladium has backed off a bit this morning since then.

All the peaks are connected with zigzags, except for the 2008 bottom which ended up being a running flat, with a near picture perfect zigzag crash into the 2003 bottom. From the 2008 bottom, another zigzag bull market developed with an expanded pattern for its “B” wave correction.

Any Cycle degree bear market will crush this Palladium chart and initially, Palladium could reach my previous “B” wave bottom in Intermediate degree. This would be close to the $832 price level, but it’s still not the end of any bear market.

I never apply conventional market correction calculations, as commodities are in a different world. Soaring to extremes and then crashing down to an extreme is pretty normal. Commodities are in a Submillennium degree wave 3 diagonal wave structure that started way back in the Little Ice Age.

It was the Roaring 1920’s when it all changed as that was the first time that ordinary investors got the investing bug and they also invented new types of assets during that time period. This is very obvious if you look at the charts before 1920.

Technically speaking, another zigzag should develop but it will be one degree higher as a zigzag in Primary degree.

Commercial hedgers are net short by a wide margin, which should start to turn as a Palladium bear market becomes more obvious to the talking heads.  It’s the non-commercial traders that always get caught in a trap as they seem to love chasing bull and bear markets.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Rally Update!

I’m sure that gold investors are jumping up and down with glee this morning as gold made a great looking vertical move to the $1224 price level. I take it as another gold bear market rally as gold has to impress me by the 50-Day MA line becoming support. Silver moved as well but silver is just getting close to the 50-Day MA.

The Platinum chart looks like this daily chart except it went sideways and flat before it crashed to new record lows.

The speed of the rally should give us a clue that it could be an emotional rally, not the start of a real trend.  Emotional buying for FOMO reasons never last. The US dollar would have to keep imploding like it did this morning.

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Silver 1980-2018 Monthly Chart Review

 

I spent years counting out this big silver chart, with idealized counting methods. This never made sense until I accepted the fact that commodities run under a different idealized pattern. Why did the 2011 peak barely break to a new record high while gold soared well above its 1980 peak?

They are all diagonal waves structures which defy EW accepted logic but when we accept them as being normal wave structures of the diagonal kind, then it’s a different ball game. They are all connected with zigzags and they run in 30-year cycles which tracks the Cycle degree peaks and valleys. The entire wave 3 in Submillennium degree is a diagonal wave structure, so this silver chart will not smooth out any time soon.

Counting backward 60 years from the 2011 peak gives us another Cycle degree peak in 1950-1951! Count backward another 30 years to 1920 and that would be close to SC degree wave 1-2. 2011 to our present 2018 low is not 30 years no matter how much we try to twist the math. Supercycle degree wave three in metals will not arrive until 2041.

Silver has not finished any major bear market, as last week the COT reports sure did not favor silver and most of the other precious metals as well.

 

With the commercials turning net short on silver, there would be little hope for some huge silver bull market to materialize until these COT numbers start to shift into net long positions.

The worst thing we can see is the Kiss Of Death between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages is going to give us another “Death Cross”!

Silver is only 50 cents away from breaking a new bear market low! How does that work? Silver makes a new bear market low while gold is going to soar? NOT!

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Gold Weekly Chart 200-Day Support Or Resistance?

 

Gold is stuck in midterm elections, but it should not take long for gold to start moving again! The big question will be, “In which direction gold will resume”?  Right now gold has been having great difficulty trying to rise above the 200-day MA.  If the bull market scenario is, “True”, then gold has to soar. It may take a bit more time as investors need 3-4 hours to consume the results. That may happen long before the final midterm results are fully known. If election results do not move the price of gold, then I don’t know what will?

We could see a very violent move where gold shoots up, but then reverses just as fast. We have 3 gold support prices with the above weekly chart, and if each price support gets broken, it’s one more nail, or should I say 3 more nails hammered into golds coffin! Of course, gold heading down is considered a crazy idea. For the last few years gold has gone nowhere fast and when it tries to break out, gold just turns around and implodes. We won’t have that long to wait as I expect the gold price to start moving again.

Trends built on fear never last long as gold traders are extremely emotional and can run from gold even faster. Many presidents tend to lose ground in midterm elections and President Trump will be no different. All the stunts President Trump has created in the last few months, is related to the midterm elections. Opec was glad to help as they just pumped more oil to bring the price of oil down before the elections. President Trump is not the only president that has done this as others have tried as well.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Rally Update

 

This morning gold is producing a small double top with a few small spikes before gold started to make another correction. If this is the big one already then there is no way that gold should crash very deep before it lifts off for another leg up. That’s the song and dance we get from all the bullish gold investors. Is this the start of a 1-2, 1-2 count? In a wave 3 extension, there are only about 3 sets of 1-2 waves that will happen, so we need one more, smaller 1-2 wave set in order for this trend to keep going.

Any move down that retraces below that $1180 price level will kill any idea of this gold rally to be into a bullish phase.  This gold rally has a good chance of being a fake start, and if the markets are good enough to confirm this, then we still have wave 3-4-5 to complete.

Platinum made the exact same move as gold, but platinum crashed to new record lows already, with about the exact same wave count as in gold. The difference since the 2016 bottom is that platinum was far lower and more sideways in the last year and 10 months.

Silver is also reacting but in a subdued fashion as well. Silver only has to fall below $13 and it will have resumed its bearish phase. It’s more important to watch silver as it walks to a different drummer than what gold is walking to.

The markets have been tumbling this week, and when stocks rally again, gold investors will run back into stocks as fast as their little fingers allow them to click, as fear moves never last that long.

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Palladium And the Impending Crash.

 

Compared to platinum, palladium is in a different world or that’s how it seems. In the long run market trends never last and palladium is pushing higher where we are about 60 points away from new record highs. New record highs can produce new record lows as this palladium monthly chart clearly shows. The choppy pattern is pretty normal, but counting it out to figure where we are, is a different ball game. What do we call a bear market in palladium when all it seems we get big ugly crashes in palladium. I see it all as diagonal wave structures.

I think palladium is finishing wave 3 in Cycle degree and it may still have a bit to go before it dies!  I see a rising wedge which is about as bearish of a signal that we can get. There are 2 big wedges, and at least one of them will give us a dramatic show in the next few years! Commercials are net short palladium as of last Friday, and when they slowly start to switch, then any bearish move will start to get tired and a reversal would be getting close. I know the book talks about “Truncation” in a 5th wave but what does that really mean?  I see many “Truncated” wave structures all the time and I see them as very bullish in a bull market and very bearish in the start of a bear market. In this case, the “A” wave is very long but the “C” wave is still “Truncated” or shorter.  Zigzags are rarely even as they can stretch so wild that they are hard to believe.

Truncation at a major bottom is a very bullish signal, and the reverse is true at major tops. The 2008 bottom is a prime example of a flat which can be called truncated, but I see them as running flats or even running zigzags. During the 1990’s silver had more “Truncated” waves than we can shake a stick at,  and they were all extremely bullish signals. Even when we go back to the 1980 palladium crash, look how long that “C” wave was in a zigzag! If it happens once in history then I use it for any degree move as well.

So if a Cycle degree palladium crash is expected, then another zigzag would be my first logical guess.  It would take little to crash this palladium chart and no amount of fundamental jargon will stop it from crashing.

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Platinum Weekly Chart: New Record Low Update!

 

I recently posted the COT report for Platinum which was negative as the commercial hedgers switched to net short positions in 5 of the precious metals.   Palladium is making new world record highs, while platinum has been crashing to new record lows from its 2008 peak. Talk about a wild inverse picture that palladium and platinum are showing this month and its been going on for many years already.

For a few years the platinum decline had a hard time getting going, but with diagonal wave structures it can take a long time to sort out and I will still work on it. Notice how platinum has the exact same triangle pattern as gold has, except in gold they call the same move a bullish move, while the exact same pattern in platinum is confirmed that it was a bear market rally. From the March 2008 peak to the October 2008 bottom, the platinum bear market rally has been completely retraced by a margin of about $6!  I think there are still new lows to come as the remainder of this 5 wave sequence still needs to finish.

Just because it’s a small degree decline, does not mean it can’t extend, and make the 4th wave rally long and complex. Silver is the closest to making the exact same move, yet the bullish gold analysts swear up and down that gold is going to soar. Once this triangle is finishing, then I am forced to look for a 1 or even 2 degrees higher positions.

In this case, it could be wave 4 ending in Cycle degree. Another bullish phase should happen but any impending bullish rally would take a long time to show itself more clearly. This gives me the extra time to see a proper pattern develop. About the only good thing that will happen is that I no longer will be a bear towards platinum. I will not shy away from being a bear when I see metal asset classes still have more downside to go! This does not make me very popular with metal investors, especially the gold bugs!

 

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Gold Weekly Chart, 200-Day Moving Average Update!

 

I realize that my bearish precious metals outlook does not sit well with many of the gold bulls still around today. The gold bulls that only see or want to see a bullish gold wave count will not find it on this blog just yet! The people that like to shred my work are the bullish investors. There are thousands of sites out today that will cater to your gold related bullish needs, and they may even be telling us about a $5000 gold price coming soon!  They always use the fiat money printing fundamentals as a reason to hedge, or stay invested in gold!  This time I included the 50-200-day MA and we can see that gold is hitting the 200-day MA line. Gold would have to rise sharply to get above and stay above, this 200-day MA. Since gold is still in the glow of the “Golden Gross”, then the 50-day MA must not fall into the 200-day MA, because then we would get a “Death Cross” in this weekly gold chart. I track 3 major gold price support numbers with $1160, $1120 and $1047!

The gold bulls need for gold to break well above $1400, while the gold bears need gold to crash below $1047. The entire gold related analytical world is focused on these two main price levels.

Which price level is going to get hit first?  It might take the rest of this month or even longer before we can become more certain. All my metal COT reports do not support a big bullish surge at this time.

All the wave counting in the world will not help us forecast the gold price if we have no clue what that 2011 peak actually was.

I included the silver, copper and gold COT report again, which I see as very bearish indicators. The herd of metal analysts always recite or use the non-commercial trader’s numbers, but they are always the group that gets into a trap be it a bear or bull. The COT reports get posted on Fridays and investors have the choice to read or ignore.

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Silver, Copper, Gold, Palladium And Platinum COT Reports Update!

 

Every Friday the government releases its Commitment of Trader reports, (COT), but it always has days missing as they work Tuesdays, to Tuesdays. Other COT reports I use don’t have such a delay, but they have no US dollar report at all. When we look at silver the commercials are now net short. Not by any extreme but still, they are bearish.

Look over to the speculator positions and they are net long! Speculators are the trend chasers and they care little about taking any delivery of any metal! Commercials are also net short in copper and of course gold as well, adding over 49,000 long contracts.

Aluminum is also on the list but I did not include it.  At one time the aluminum non-commercials were net long by a ratio of 14,000:1,  blew my mind, to say the least.

If the professional hedgers are this pessimistic on gold why should I expect gold to soar anytime soon?  Any bullish wave count I do create for gold will constantly fail if I ignore these types of numbers.

To really rub salt in the wound, the commercials are also net short with palladium and platinum.  All these numbers do not support a quick return of any gold bull market.

 

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Silver Weekly Chart Update: Bull Or Bear?

 

One of the main reasons why silver is important to watch is because the talking heads ignore silver in the most part. You can find 100’s of gold stories before you will ever find a good silver news story. We are being swamped with gold news which is obvious that they are brainwashing us!  In the old days, they used to brainwash people with loudspeakers attached to the roof of a car or van.

Today, they brainwash us with the internet and social media. The gold analysts repeat or regurgitate the same data over and over telling us that gold is in a bull market. For the last 2 years or so the 50 and 200-day average lines have converged where they both are working as resistance lines. When silver takes out that $13.50 support price, instantly silver is back to it’s bigger bearish trend. Any obvious move of silver to a new downside would instantly and technically make any move from the 2015 bottom, a bear market rally.

Every bear market rally gets completely retraced back down to and below the point of origin. (late 2015)  Silver’s present rally is very choppy, so it’s also giving us a clue that a new low in silver should happen. If silver did break to the downside, you will see the media join in and silver news stories will pop up like tulips in the spring.

Even now silver would have to rally dramatically before a golden cross can happen again. The commercial hedgers are net long silver, but not by that much just yet. The speculators are far more bearish on silver as they are speculating that silver is going down. It’s the speculators that get into one trap or another, but it could take many more short positions, before we run into real extremes.

Analysts do not know that the 2011 silver peak was a 30-year mania cycle peak.  Most investors don’t take cycles seriously enough, especially the 30-year cycle. In the last 4-5 months I have made thousands of simple 30-year calculations, between 100’s of peaks and sometimes there is only a 1-year difference in 90 years! It’s very easy for any person to figure out exactly “where” in this 30-year cycle, we were born in.

I use 1920, 1950, 1980 and now 2011. The next 30-year cycle peak is Supercycle degree wave 3, by 2041!

 

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Silver Daily Chart Update!

 

One thing about silver is that it walks to a different drummer than what the gold pattern has created. The same “B” wave triangle was a rising “B” wave. Even the gold stock ETFs were pointing down much like silver, and not gold.  When we pay too much attention to gold, we are being brainwashed and ignore silver in the process. This silver cash is only about $1.80 away from breaking a new record low which would be below $13 which is a Fibonacci number. In order for silver to be very bullish, it would have to surpass and exceed all those inverted zigzags I show presently.

Any triangle always forces a wave position to change degree levels, which can be 1 or even 2-degree level changes. In this case an Intermediate degree, and a Primary degree bottom at the same time.

The US dollar hasn’t died yet, as it just wants to keep pushing higher, keeping all gold related investments subdued at best.  Silver had a very choppy rally that defies any impulse specifications, so I see this as just another bear market rally fooling the majority of investors.

What the majority of gold investors don’t understand is that the 2011 peak was a 30-year “mania” commodities peak counting from the 1980 inflationary peak, with a ± 1-year error rate.  So 2011 was 30 years plus 1! Your next Supercycle commodities peak will come in 2041, which I will never see, but my grandkids will certainly live and invest in.

Diagonal wave structures dominate commodities as they have been doing that for the entire Submilllennium degree wave 3. I have created a template and an idealized chart in a very large format like 24×55 inches. 2 for diagonal wave patterns and 2 for the impulse wave patterns. These were professionally scanned by wide format scanners so the originals will print out 24×55 inches if so desired. Postage size charts just won’t cut it with me, as even 8×10 printouts are better than the shit we inside our computers.

 

 

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Gold Daily Chart: Resuming The Bearish Trend?

Gold did hit a bottom at $1160, but that was a pretty docile type of a bottom, just like all the others before it has been.  Bear markets do not end with a whimper, especially anything related to the commodities markets.  The people that say, stocks, gold, oil can’t crash together better check your history, as it sure happened in 1929-1932. It also happens in 2008 as everything except the US dollar got dragged down as well.  The common belief that gold is just in a bull market correction, do not understand that 2011 was a 30-year commodities mania peak. 2011 is a Cycle degree wave 3 top, which only happens once every 30 years ± 1 year.

This wave position came back from hibernation as we could be in a wave 1-2 rally in Minute degree. Do not underestimate the power for gold to move with great speed when it wants to, as these types of declines can also produce “Gaps” on the way down.  Any $142 drop would crash gold below $1047, which I consider would be a walk in the park for gold.

You can beat your head up against the wall if you try to inject fundamentals to explain every move gold makes. Fundamentals are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. They change like the wind because they ignore the biggest fundamentals of them all and that is “people”. There is a huge “fundamental generational shift in effect” as 10,000 Boomers have been retiring every day since 2011.

Also when Generation X hit the average age of 46, which is their peak spending years, it will reduce the “velocity of money” in the economy as well. Those are all “fundamentals” that nobody talks about but are critical to the future gold price and its large cycles.

This insane real-estate mania will also turn into a bust, which we know is happening just from lumbers futures ongoing price crash. Deflation is the real threat as T-Bonds will soar and the US dollar keeps pushing higher.

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Silver Double Bottom, Weekly Chart Review!

 

I see the silver peak of 2011, as a mania cycle degree peak, that comes along once every 30 years, with a reliability of  ± 1 year.  Silver has always been marching to a different drummer, and the main reason I see is that silver is in a diagonal wave structure, just like “All” commodities are. If the bottom is in, then silver should soar as well as gold.

Silver was just short of a downside breakout but is now producing a double bottom that they may call a “truncated” move, I call it a running pattern, which can create a very bullish move. We would also have an H&S setup, which also adds to the bullish scenario.

At the $34 price level silver would be running into critical resistance, but it should travel much higher than that 2016 peak. The same resistance level for gold would be at the $1800 price level.

Don’t expect silver to soar to $200 or more, as normal wave counting will never work with commodities.

I have a running triangle, which always dictates that a higher degree wave position must be found!  That may not happen until my 5 waves in Minor degree are finished,  including the “C” wave in Intermediate degree.

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Gold Intraday Update: Is The Correction Finished?

 

Gold sure looks like it turned this morning, which could be the end of the correction. All we need is for gold to trash some of the resistance we are going to run into, then the gold bulls will take over control of the market again. The pattern I’m expecting is a sequence of 5 waves up in Minor degree. This eventualy should push the gold price to $1700-$1900, but all indicators I use will have to confirm it first.

I use GDX as my main trading ETF, and it should also have hit a bottom this morning.

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Gold Intraday Bull Market Update.

 

This is the 90-minute intraday chart, with the bearish phase ending in August 2018.  Since then gold is doing what a bullish market is supposed to be doing as 5 waves seemed to be forming.  I may have to adjust the degree level later on,  but for now, I will start with 5 waves up in Minute degree, with a starting 1-2, 1-2 wave count. Gold could turn into diagonal waves, just as easily, which only time can confirm in the next few weeks.

Last week of a quarter, after which gold could soar much further. Technically speaking, gold should form 5 waves up in Minor degree, that will eventually push gold way over $1375 again. $1375 is the key price that gold has to retrace because that is the location of an Intermediate degree top.

I’m looking for a Primary “B” wave top, so the Intermediate degree position eventually has to get retraced. The only way gold will keep going up is if the US dollar keeps up its decline. Investors love that $1200 price level, and sooner or later, gold will get above that number and not get hit again for some time.

At this time I have a gold price window bull market peak, between $1700-$1900. Compare that to GDX, and GDX could hit between $45-$65.

The US dollar already took 14 months for its A5 wave decline with a 6-month counter-rally. If zigzags are supposed to be even, then another 14-month decline would be an initial time target of November 2019, as a potential peak.

At this time gold may work as a safe-haven asset class, but long-term every myth that you know about gold will be proven false. Gold will never protect you from deflation, and the only way gold will protect you against inflation is when the price of gold gets crushed. Banks are buying gold this year, but back in 1998, they were selling gold.

The big thing that readers of this blog must be confident about, and that is what that 2011 peak in gold represents!

Before you think that gold is just in an ordinary bull market again, then you should do your homework in what a mania is! Gold runs on a 30-year cycle from one mania peak to the next, so the next mania is not going to peak until 2041. This would be Supercycle degree wave 3 in commodaties.

One thing I’m very certain on, that at the peak of this bullish run, gold will give bullion holders a chance to unload or they will suffer the consequences when gold crashes between $500-$350! Deflation is coming in the next three years, and gold will, “Never” protect you from this deflation.

Boomers are retiring at a rate of 10,000 per day for the next 19 years! What do you think they will do with their investments?  All those boomers will be permanent sellers of real-estate.

It’s not just gold,  but the entire commodities world will get hit with deflation by 2022-2023

 

This is what the COT report on gold looks like. This does not instill any great confidence that a super gold bull is coming when their stats are so flat and even. Oh, I’m sure this picture will change, until we can see some extreme readings again. When the top speculators move to the bottom then we know that the speculators are in a bull trap, and it would be time to short gold again.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Update

 

 

So far gold has started to rally from that August low, but this morning gold to a swan dive that is hard to see on a daily chart but it sure shows well with an intraday chart.  What you see in this daily chart is a Minor degree triangle with a count of 5 zigzags. This hasn’t changed at all, even after I moved my “A”  in Primary degree back about 2 years and 8 months. I like to calculate my time in years, +or- 1 year.  Being late by over 2 years, 8 months in a Primary degree wave position, is time traveling on paper at warp speed. Being out by a Primary degree time position will throw all-time forecasts out the window, the second they are created. 2011 was a Cycle degree gold mania peak in Cycle degree which very few gold experts even acknowledge. Those that do are hated by gold investors, as they do not understand that gold has 30-year cycles to them, from peak to peak.

The last thing I will ever do and that is, call a long position in gold an investment. I reversed all my bearish positions well over a week ago before I get out of bed as I put in all my orders late at night.

This so-called shorter move is just the last part of a running triangle. Running patterns are very normal much like the “E” wave in gold. Some are even bent over much worse as some of the gold stock ETFs show us. It’s not the $1160 price that is important but it’s the spike that made it, which is much more important.  At the top, we had 4-5 spikes to the upside which all failed.

I have switched to the bullish side but mostly use GDX to trade with.  I believe this impending gold market bear “rally” should show us 5 waves up in Minor degree but they could get very ugly pattern wise. 5 wave runs in any direction is not something I want to miss as they are the ones that can give you stunning returns if we can ride them out. I’m a gold bull rider now and will stay that way until all indicators tell me I’m in a bull trap!

My main trading ETF is GDX as the reversal we had, happen the same way in late 2008. As of August 2018, I have thrown options into the mix as just “one” of the uses for options is to treat them like Insurance. I had loss insurance out on my silver coin bet, and it already paid out very well.

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Silver Weekly Chart: A Double Bottom And A Bear Trap!

 

I will no longer count out Minute degree waves unless I need them to clarify a pattern. I think an SLV bear trap is in, and the fear or threat of a further decline is not going to happen. Markets never reward fear, as it takes courage to do the opposite thing. Technically the 5 waves I was expecting have already started. I only have some real money Silver units in my Forex trading account as the rest is all with GDX and options.

The only way that silver and gold will fly, is when the US dollar turns south. In the end, it will always be about the currency markets and their wild swings. Last week many of the COT reports came out with some extremes, in all those currencies inverse to the US dollar. We can argue for years where silver will end up at, but that all depends on what that 2011 peak was all about. That 2011 peak was a gold&silver mania peak that comes along once every 30 years! It is very easy to double check and count backward 3, 30-year cycles, starting from the 2011 peak, plus or minus, one year!

Commodities do not follow the normal idealized patterns as they are all connected with zigzag type waves. Why do you think that the bear market with silver in the 1990s is so choppy?  It’s because it was a very drawn out flat type of a running pattern between a much bigger zigzag in Primary degree.  It could even work as a triangle as we did move into one higher degree in 2011.

Every person can pinpoint their birth year in this 30-year cycle, as I was born year one after the 1950 gold peak. Between each cycle, it will end up with major lows, but then gold and silver become a “long-term investment” once they are crushed in price.  We will have to wait until 2022 when solar cycle #25 starts to poke through the sun’s northern latitudes,  you don’t want a bearish bone left in your body when the poles on the sun start to flip. Solar cycle upswings act like bear market terminators. It would also be a good time to start a business, as you will have the power of the sun at your back!

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Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Phase Review

 

Several weeks ago the commercial traders changed into a net long position with gold which was the first time this happened since the late 1990s.  I had to move my Primary degree “A” wave bottom to late 2015 which is back about 2 years and 8 months. This is another example of time traveling on paper as my old wave positions had me late or behind by 2.8 years! One wrong large degree can put us off by 100’s of years, if we do not know what that 2011 gold peak was.

The 2011 gold peak  was a Gold/Silver mania peak that comes along once every 30 years + or – 1 year!  Anybody with time to kill and a calculator can check these numbers by going back 90 years or going formward 90 years. 90 years make up 3, 30 year cycles, from 1980 forward. 2041 would be the year of the next SC degree wave 3 peak, which will never happen until the price of gold  gets crushed in the next 2-3 years. $1160 in gold had a strong spike to the downside which may hold and deserves attention to make sure it will hold.

I mentioned it many times that gold could soar to that $1800 price level, but it sure will not soar $1000 like I said it might do. Now it would only soar $640-$650 to get to the same price target.

My triangle in the “B” wave stays exactly the same as I still need the higher degree change before it happens. If the $1160 price level holds it would be a running pattern for sure. I don’t believe in truncated patterns as I see all of these as running patterns. Even if gold started out and developed a 5 wave structure, it could also be a triangle inside the “B” wave.

We had the Death Cross in a daily chart but the Golden cross is still active in gold. In the weekly charts and the 50-day MA may not cross golds  200-day MA and even provide support for the next leg up in gold.  Gold is still in a bear market rally as no Cycle degree correction has completed in gold at this time. It’s pretty sad when we can’t see the 2011 peak as a maina peak as all the numbers read “extreme” back in 2011. Bubbles do not end well and gold has been brainwashing us as it has not yet completed the mania bear market by a long shot.

It may take until 2022 before the real bottom in gold will arrive, after the gold price is “CRUSHED”! Only when an asset class is crushed in price does it become an investment and until then I will only trade the 5 wave moves.  It takes me about 15-20 minutes of work at night and I can be completely in cash by first opening before I get out of bed. At the same time I can execute some long positions in GDX  but in small increments of 100 shares each time. Some 5 cent call options will help the share count if we only have 400-500 share long positions. 25 calls are about equal to adding 2500 shares to a trade.  Option failure depends on how you use them and how you handle the loss once they expire worthless.

It looks like if this $1160 price holds, then gold below $1047 will not happen and then $1400 gold will get breached. Once $1400 gets breached, I lose my 10-ounce silver coin. That’s ok, as I had some PUTs out, that coverd the loss of a 10 ounce silver coin. I also cashed in 20 October puts to cover the risk of all my options going to zero.

So far in the last 12 months I have enjoyed a 92% gain in my printouts, and I would be happy if that happened again on the long side.

Remember, that the gold price has nothing to do with printing money, it has to do with the “velocity” of the money in the economy. This velocity can increase with seasonal spending like for Halloween and Christmas shopping or January RRSP spending. Long term the velocity of money is going to decrease on a massive scale as 10,000 boomers are retiring every single day for the next 19 years!  What will happen to the stock market once the pensioners have to cash in, I don’t think I will be “investing” if my cane can’t beat my mouse anymore!  🙄  All those boomers retiring will strain the private and government pension plans to the extreme, if not fail completely. Longer term deflation is the real threat, even when gold makes another strong showing.

Even my IWA pension plan, or the Ontario Teachers Union pension plan will see some hits that are hard to imaging at this time.

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Gold Daily Chart Update

 

When we notice a pattern as choppy as gold was during 2017 and early 2018, then this is telling us that gold is traveling up when the bigger trend is down. I counted out the triangle in gold with more detail this time as I will not keep filling in the sames positions over and over again. The only way we can have a triangle in a 5th wave decline is in a diagonal set of 5 waves. Triangles also send out a clear warning that once they are completed, I must increase my wave degree by a minimum of 1 degree, and even 2 degree levels at certain times.

The 2017 peak was an Intermediate degree peak, so gold must exceed the 2017 peak by a wide margin, ($1375). We would be on a Primary degree run, specifically a “B” wave in Primary degree.  Three big moves in Primary degree is in our gold future, and it would be best to talk about that when I update GDX!

We did get a strong spike down to the $1160 price level, but that support price will not hold, which makes the $1120 price level the next target to get hit. Once gold gets below $1120 there is only one leg of a bar stool that hasn’t cracked yet. Three cracked legs will not hold the heavy gold bullion owners, and the $1047 gold price level will confirm without a shadow of doubt, that gold was just in a bear market rally.  If an Intermediate degree bear market rally can fool the majority of investors, then a Primary degree “B” wave bullish top will really fool them again.

The anticipaded “B” wave gold bullish phase will also be the last time that we can sell bullion into a mania peak, because it will not be until 2041 when SC degree wave 3 in gold arrives. Yes, 30 years between gold mania peaks which nobody expects, but it will produce some of the best trading we can do for the rest of our lives.

The Gold Death Cross was at $1300 with this daily chart, and the weekly chart Death Cross is still to come.

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Silver Daily Chart: $13 Price Downside Break-Out!

 

The majority are all hypnotized by gold, and ignore silver and even gold stock ETF’s, most of the time. Once this silver futures cash chart crumbles below $13 US, then silver was in a bear market rally and the majority were fooled again. Does the silver chart above look like it’s in a bull market? This pattern is just like gold except it’s a running triangle, and about as bearish of a pattern as we can run into. A triangle in a “B” wave zigzag gives us a warning that when this ends, I must also end on a degree at least one degree higher than Intermediate degree.

A Primary degree bottom, would produce a Primary degree top with the counter-rally. The 2011 peak was a 30 year silver mania peak, not some correction in an ongoing bull market.

Commodities do not  behave like the stock markets as they are connected with large zigzags, and normal wave counting will never work. In hindsight we can see the wedge form, and the downside move it produced. We still have a long way to go, but silver and a few others are leading the way south to warmer weather!  It would not surprise me if silver eventually kissed the $8.00 price level, and we have 4 months to find out.

Silver investors will be crying the blues about this impending silver crash, but shit happens if investors don’t know what bubbles are, or even take the time to learn about bubbles. Back in 2011, Market Vane readings showed 96% bulls present, which is one of the most extreme silver bullish readings ever!  I have documented and posted this, as well as others have done. Market Vane has been around since the 60’s and the majority  don’t even know about it, or even know how to read it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold Daily Chart Bear Market Review.

 

I think only watching the gold price is a big smoke and mirror magician act and they are “Bluffing us”.  What we are looking at, is a tringle inside a “B” wave zigzag. This always dictates that I “must” find one higher degree once these 5 diagonal 5 waves are completed. Silver and all gold stock ETFs do not confirm this gold bullish looking pattern. Silver only has to fall another $1.50 and it well be close to a new record bear market low. You can’t have gold in a bull market while silver breaks to new bear market lows. Even some of my gold stock related ETFs are also very close to breaking new record lows, so it’s not just one thing. We had so many bearish warnings that gold was going to implode, but thankfully gold investors ignore all these bearish signs. and technical indicators as well.

The Death Cross on this daily cash chart was at $1300 and the weekly Death Cross is still to come.

Even the gold hedge funds and the commercial traders have net short positions on gold. This is a bit rare but it has happened before.  Eventually the hedge funds will get into a really big bear trap and that’s when this gold market will reverse and soar north again. Printing money has nothing to do with the price of gold but it’s the velocity of any money that does drive the price of gold.

Gold hit a 30 year record high in 2011, which was a “mania peak”, not some silly correction in an ongoing bull market. Commodity crashes don’t end with some flimsy bottom but they end in a far more violent nature.  Bear market rallies “Always” retrace their entire bullish moves back down to and below the point of orgin. It seems the gold bullish wave analysts have turned a bear market rally into a bull market,  as they are all confinced that gold will still break above $1400 this year!  Good luck with that, as it seems that gold investors are following those wild bullish wave counts, which I always bet against. We can tell if we are on the wrong side as our bullish positions refuse to perform the way a bull market should.

Presently we are in a Minor degree “C” wave decline and is just about the smallest 5 wave sequence I will bet on, provided my account can handle it. There are about 3-4 ETF’s that track this gold futures cash chart very well. I’ts when they contain Options is when the patterns go insane. I’m starting to love options but will not know how much until the end of this year when all my PUTs must be closed off.

I have heard it many times how the majority of Options expire worthless, but this all depends in how we use options! If the majority of options expire worthless then it’s not a good idea to use options to chase a market in any direction. One wrong move against you and the options can go to zero and never recover before expiration date.

I will not give out details of my options trading until all PUTs are closed off, and I’m starting to build calls or take long positions in GDX or GDXJ.  I have 2hr lunch meetings with my buddy and he has taken an options course, which he likes as well. He brought a huge stack of his books, so I told him that he was hired as my Options consultant!   🙄 The fact that we can talk the same options language and work together, is more important than his real world experiences.  Everything I do can be cloned and scaled up with no real limits.

Traders don’t have to make millions as all it takes is a good healthy trading account where you can draw extra cash every year or month from. I would be happier than a littly piggy playing in a pig-pen if sometime by this year end, I cashed out with $89,000 or more!

I have a family wedding barbecue to go to this Sunday and if the weather holds, they can be a lot of fun.

Have a Great weekend!

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Quick Gold Intraday Rally Update.

 

Gold followed through with a push above $1200 again. $1210 seems to be the peak this morning. Since I can count this rally like only 5 waves have developed, then chances are good this counter rally is not completed yet. We could see a severe drop in the price of gold, but then gold can come back hard one more time. Overall the big 2018 summer decline is one single move with 5 waves in Minute degree, which is the tail end of a diagonal Minor degree zigzag crash. It’s also the smallest 5 wave run that I will trade in.

I use GDX and GDXJ instead of gold but will add GLDM when the next big bullish phase comes. This may take all of 2019 as well.

 

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Gold Intraday Rally Update

Last week gold and gold stocks made a single spike to the downside. This is what may happen at a major bottom and is a signal to close some bearish positions. I closed off some PUTs as I plan to have a small group of options come due every month. That crazy decline sure seems to fit into a diagonal 5th wave. Just to get all the gold bulls excited again, it would not surprise me if gold closed above $1200 for a couple of days. At $1215 we have a road block when gold refused to go any higher.

The August sideways move is just a mini version of what gold looks like on a daily chart! If gold traveled up to $1215 then we woud  be looking at another Head&Shoulder bull trap! This run could also end with a spike, and it may take the rest of this week to play out. I would rather give this rally a bit more time than try to get perfect timing at this intraday scale.

The reason for golds rally is that the US dollar is also making a correction in its bull market. The next big downside price target to watch is that $1120 price, as then 3 legs of a 4 legged bar stool, have already cracked.

 

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Gold Intraday Bear Market Update!

Intraday updates might be important for day traders, but I assure readers that I’m not a day trader, nor an investor. In my Cycle degree world only 4 degree levels have any importance at all. Minor, Intermedeate, Primary and Cycle degree. It is any big 5 wave sequence in Minor degree or more where all the money is being made. We can’t make any money, as we can only work for it and earn it. Get real gains mixed up with any unrealized gains will not work as well. Any trade can be up 300%, but we don’t make a single dime until that position is close off.

Gold ended on a very nice little spike to the downside which was followed by a counter rally fairly quick. This rally may still have some to go, but eventually the bearish gold trend will return. Once a trend takes hold, nothing will stop that trend until it’s draws to its final conclusion. This Primary degree bottom in Gold could end up between $700-$800 USD, which puts gold at the same bottom as 2008 was. Even if gold hits $691 it would not be a problem, as that would give gold a little more than a $100 window to reverse in. It still would take the rest of the year or even to late November (21st) before we can expect a bottom in the gold price.

When gold declines this much then it is a “CLEAR” sign, that gold is telling us that deflation is happening. Gold has been deflating since the 30 year cycle peak in 2011, along with gold stock ETFs. It may not finish until after, or close to 2021! Of course a huge gold counter rally will get in the way, which I don’t intend on missing as I always work 3 steps ahead of the crowd. Sorry, but only working one step ahead is no longer good enough, as I work on much stricter parameters. I’m only short IAU with a token 100 shares, but all my biggest short positions are with GDX and as of this morning I added a some GDXJ PUTs. All my trading account short positions are in the green and I have no intention of covering any of them until GDX also has it’s downside breakout. Not until all my short positions have been closed off, will I know how much of a new capital base I have to work with. I know what my goals are and I document and even print out different stages of this gold bearish decline. I will give full trading account discloser to my buddy this week, as I have added options into the mix.

Options always expire and go to zero, but any PUT can go to zero the same day you execute! It just about happened to me this week, but it’s no reason to panic, as a week later all these PUTS I have are now in the green!  Green is good in any direction we bet on, but we gain nothing if we don’t execute and capture this “green” 🙂

One single PUT or Call represents 100 shares, so eventually I always want to carry 250 options in any direction. I’m far from that folks, but planning is the key as it has to fit into our capital base as well.

 

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