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Category Archives: TSLA

Elon Musk plans to launch a Tesla to Mars!

Elon Musk plans to launch a Tesla to Mars — blasting a David Bowie Song — on a SpaceX rocket | Toronto Star

I follow Elon Musk and his space program. I’ve watched most of his rocket liftoffs, and his spectacular failures as well. Elon Musk is certainly a visionary and I respect that. In January 2018 he plans on testing his Falcon Heavy rocket, but he has repeatedly warned that this launch could go badly and even blow up.

Elon Musk plans on launching his own Tsla with this Falcon Heavy launch, so it will prove interesting either way.  Since the 2016 bottom TSLA’s stock price soared in a vertical move as it followed a pattern that works best as a single inverted zigzag. It also fits great into the bigger diagonal wave pattern that TSLA seems to have an abundance of.

In the bigger picture any inverted zigzag can get completely retraced, which means that the $140 price level should get exceeded in the next few years to come. The last high happened in September 2017, ending with a $389 price level. For the last 3 months TSLA stock has been over in the bearish world already and I expect it to continue. This decline is starting like another diagonal and it would be silly to expect anything else.

When TSLA first started every expert analyst on the planet seemed to hate the company, yet the stock price soared. This just goes to show how wrong the expert forecasters can be, and I sure don’t expect this to change. When the media paints us a rosy picture of the future, it coincides well with a major top as there is nobody left to come in.

The Gold/Tsla ratio is at 4.14 today, which is on the very expensive side and until this ratio becomes sane again this TSLA stock will be very expensive.

Elon Musk Introduces the New Big Falcon Rocket – Highlights – Bing video

If  you think the Falcon Heavy is a big rocket, “you ain’t seen nothing yet”, as he is also developing the BFR, Big Falcon Rocket”, in the next few years.

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Tesla Implodes Again

Tesla shares suffer their worst losing streak in months – MarketWatch

Tesla topped out close to $389 a few days ago, before it turned and started to head south one more time. Is the bull market over for Tesla? I would like to think so, but as usual we want to see the decline continue until most of the doubt is removed.  Since the beginning of 2016 Tesla soared up with a 5 wave move and then it fell apart as TSLA plunged into a bearish phase.

In December of 2016 TSLA started back up, and now has formed another double top, with the secondary top being a diagonal 5th wave.

From 2016 to present day, Tesla has formed a great looking zigzag, which is part of a bigger diagonal wave structure. It could also be a setup for a triangle, but even then Tesla should fall well below $141.  At best I can put Tesla into a “B” wave triangle top, but any inverted zigzag can completely retrace. Some wave analysts may start this wave count as a 1-2 wave count, but we have alternating waves that fit better into diagonal structures.

I track gold ratios, but I don’t have too many samples with Tesla. At one time, Tesla had a low ratio of 64:1 from its IPO days. The majority of analysts hated Tesla when it first came out, but started to love it as the price went higher. Recently the Gold/Tesla ratio has compressed to a 3.33:1 ratio. This makes Tesla expensive by any stretch of the imagination.  Everybody is jumping on the electric car bandwagon, so Tesla will get some stiff competition in the years to come.

It is never safe to buy a stock where the insiders have sold out and the Gold/Tesla ratio is so skewed. Not until these indicators flip once again will it be “safe”.

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Is The Tesla Party Over?

From the 2016 peak Tesla headed into a bearish slide that took more than a year to finish. In early 2016 Tesla hit a bottom and then proceeded soar in what looks like a straight move.  Hardly any subdivisions were countable.  From my perspective, this was an “A” wave move in Minor degree.   At this time this move looks like a zigzag, and the new high was achieved with a 3 wave pattern and not 5 waves.  This move is a typical diagonal 5th wave ending, (not an ending diagonal)  I labeled the zigzag as A5,B3 and C5 waves so we know exactly to look for alternation on a C5 wave. 

The C5 leg subdivided very well, with much bigger waves, making it easier for us to see.   Tesla could be over on the bearish phase already, but the talking heads would have to scream “Bear market” once Tesla retreated 20%.

This is where the fun starts, counting this bear market down, as the first leg down has a clear area where it may find support.  We would also be coming from a zigzag top which, means that this zigzag will get retraced by 100% or more.  I think the 4th wave bottom should eventually be left in the dust. 

This electric car market is due for a fall as it is hyped beyond reality, because electric cars are subsidized by the tax payer. All it takes is for the government to pull all the subsidies, for electric cars and renewable energy, and you can kiss this stock goodbye. 

If you think the government can’t pull their subsidies for electric cars, then just look what Denmark had done.     

Tesla has not had any real profits, and even then they may not make any money until 2020 or later. That’s a lot of time and money that Elon Musk will burn through, before they see positive cash flow. 

I have a trend line across two buttons which can point to another potential turning point. There are open gaps below this bottom trend line, and one big gap is at $40.  Not until we get a clear signal that insiders are actually buying their own stocks back, and everybody hates Tesla, will it be safe to start looking at it.   

I don’t have the time for individual stocks, but I will try and get a few updates in when a strong turning may happen. I think Tesla is also on a Cycle degree bearish phase, so I will be looking for a flat in Primary degree as well.

I had to calculate backwards a bit to take a Gold/Tesla ratio, which stood at 3.30:1. It is also  the most extreme reading I had since I’ve been tracking any Tesla ratios.  I don’t have any good extremely cheap Gold/Tesla ratios on hand, we have lots of time before we need to find a reasonable ratio. I’m pretty sure Tesla will pass the 10:1 ratio again, but could go much further if the Tesla bear market goes below $40.

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