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Category Archives: Solar Cycle #24

Solar Cycle #24 And DJIA 1975-2018 Elliott Wave Review

The sunspot number has now been updated to the December end of 2017. The majority couldn’t care less about any influences our sun has on the stock markets back here on earth. Many have researched this connection, as I have done for the last 20 years. Each black dot is a month end calculation of sunspot activity.

We had two major peaks in sunspot activity, one correlated well with the 2011 gold peak and the January 2014 peak coincided before my wave 3  in Intermediate degree ended.  The 2002-2008 sunspot count starting to decline, but the markets loved it at least until 2007.

It may still take a full 3 years until sc#24 ends, and when sc#25 starts from this 2021 time frame, then the markets should follow suite.  Many times the markets experience great upheaval just a year or so before the solar cycle hits a bottom. With the Fed change coming this February, there is usually some upheaval in the markets as well, especially if the markets have already crossed over to the bearish side.  In the end sc#24 produced the biggest bull market since the depression, lasting well over 8 years now.

In the next 2-3 years the stock bears can do a lot of damage, but once 2021 rolls around and the sunspot polarity has started to flip, then we had better look for a brand new bull market to start. If you think investors are any smarter today than what they were with the 2000 or 2007 peaks, then you are sadly mistaken. The average majority will never learn that the “majority” can’t win at this game of accumulating wealth.

The sad part about the solar cycles is that even the wave analysts ignore them, as in March of 2009 they still had very bearish wave counts still to be completed.  Yet the markets turned up in 2009 and never looked back as the bearish wave counting herd were caught in a bear trap. When we are caught in any type of a trap we are ill prepared for what comes next. The markets were already showing signs of an impending reversal in late 2008.

 

I just love to show readers the linear version of the DOW as the bullish phase from the 2016 bottom to our present top is one of the most vertical moves I have ever  tried to count. I show 2 sets of 5 wave sequences in Intermediate degree, with no other degree levels labeled. I use no other indicators or prices, and I spew out little or no fundamental reasoning when markets go up or down. Markets will always act in such a fashion to never let the majority win. Sure, during any bull market it is perceived that the majority are winning, but that is only wealth on paper. During a big bear market, all this paper wealth starts to disappear and years of bullish progress go up in smoke.

The first set of 5 waves in Intermediate degree,  are much bigger physical moves. The 2015-2016 bearish phase contained a much smaller intermediate degree 4th wave. There is nothing wrong with that as there is a one degree difference between the two 5 wave sets. There are 2 sets of wave 3 positions not labeled which is deliberate, so it will force any wave analysts to scratch this time, wondering what is supposed to be between the 2 sets of 5 waves.

This market has soared since the 2016 bottom, but it also shows next to no corrections from a monthly chart perspective.  This is a bad omen in the bigger scope of things, as the markets do correct back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  The DOW 15,000 price level is a previous 4th wave alright, but it’s the previous 4th wave of a Primary degree that a Cycle degree has to correct down to.

In 2009 the markets went a bit lower than the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which has no real meaning or future implications at this time. Many 4th waves travel below previous 4th waves of one lesser degree. Besides the markets have a tendency to fool the majority of participants and so to piss off all the mega bears, the markets will “not”  go below the 2009 lows again.  They could  turn earlier than expected, and start to soar. You can thank solar cycle #25 for the next big bull market, as those investors that follow or believe in the “grand” or “super” theory will be left empty handed again.

I see this as a massive missed opportunity, which makes the Elliott Wave Principle very inefficient,  if we keep on missing major bull markets. As long as wave analysts are happy painting mindless numbers and letters on the charts, then they will never enjoy catching a 5 or 8 year bull moves when they do come.

Every failed wave count must be followed by a serious look at the “entire” wave structure. A minimum of two higher degree levels than the failed wave degree must be initiated instantly.  In 2009 Primary degree wave 1 failed so the “ENTIRE” 5 wave sequence in Supercycle degree must be counted again. Modern wave analysts have refused to do this as it’s just too much like work. If you spend your time looking at many other wave counts, virtually every wave position today is still spewing out SC and GSC degree wave counts.

For the last 5 years I have shifted to Cycle degree wave analysis. Until all 5 waves in Cycle degree are found and confirmed, “NO” SC or GSC degree wave counts can find a base.

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Solar Cycle #24 Update

It takes them a little less than a week into the new month, before they update this solar cycle chart. Each black dot represents the previous months solar activity  and we can see that in October solar activity has crashed. We are now pushing 6 days in a row with no sunspot activity. In total 2017  had about 74 spotless days.  This is well over double the spotless days we had in 2016.  Before this decline is all said and done, our spotless days will increase every year for a few more years yet.

 

 

Just because there is no sunspot activity at this time does not mean there are no solar winds. The opposite is true as big black holes open up at the northern part of the sun, sending geomagnetic winds towards earth.  We see these storms in the Northern and Southern regions near our poles. They have many satellites taking readings of the sun 24 hours a day, and many sites will be tracking the sun when the sun flips its poles one more time. 

In 2008-2009 solar cycle #23 ended and solar cycle #24 started. It was the solar cycle that caused the stock markets to soar,  which it has done many times in the last 100 years or so. The sun has a heartbeat of about 9 beats per 100 years and solar cycle #24 should end close to the 2020-2021 time period. 

You don’t want to be bearish when solar cycle #24 has ended, as solar cycle #25 could kick off the next great business cycle.  Any so called depression, or recession at that time, will come to a screeching halt followed by another 8 year bull market. At this time it would be solar cycle #25 that will make my vision of the idealized  Cycle degree 5th wave go!  

Even though we could see a very bearish bottom in a few years, the future is a lot brighter than what all the Doomsayers are preaching. Fear is a tool they use to manipulate peoples emotions, and once they control you it is extremely hard to break free from this manipulative trap.   

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Sunspot Number Progression

For the last 20 years or so I have been following the solar cycles.  Each dot represents the previous month’s tally in how many active solar spots occurred during that month.  The count was well above the 25 level, but it’s not finished yet. This solar cycle #24 still has a few years to go as it should roll around the bottom for many months as well.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 5 days
2017 total: 61 days (21%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 13 Oct 2017

In the last 5 days no sunspot activity has been recorded, I’m  sure long stretches of inactivity will still get recorded before solar cycle #25 comes along.

Huge solar storms still come in from big holes in the sun, which produce the beautiful auroras to the north. Tourists from around the world regularly visit places in Alaska and Sweden to witness these stunning displays. Many planets in our solar system also display auroras, but with different colors. Storms from the sun can produce massive disruptions on earth and the astronauts in the ISS have to go into the safe room until the threat passes.

Without the protection of our magnetic field our DNA would get resequenced, basically exterminating all life on earth. One of the last solar cycles that was this low happen back in the early 1900s.

Solar Minimum is Coming | Science Mission Directorate

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Solar Cycle #24 And Record Solar Flare Update

This is the progress of solar cycle #24 and its declining cycle. Each dot represents the previous month, so for the month of August sunspot activity has exploded. We are not anywhere near a bottom at this time, so don’t think  that solar cycle #25 has already started. Some very specific things have to happen when we transform from sc#24 to sc#25. Solar cycle #24 is also one the smallest since 1910. Solar cycle #25 may also be short as we could get two short solar cycles back to back.

All images below come from Spaceweather.com.

 

Yesterday September, 6th, 2017 a super flare hit earth, which was one of the strongest flares in a decade. The sunspot number AR2673 was the culprit, which is on the right side of the sun. Solar flares work just like hurricanes do on earth, except the hurricanes from the sun blast hot rays at us.  When we on earth look at the sun it rotates from left to right.  (West to East)  With the poles flipping in about 11-13 year cycles.  I recorded the start of solar cycle #24 in late 2008 so it could take until 2020 or 2021 before solar cycle #24 ends.

Here is a satellite picture which catches how bright or how strong solar flare AR2673 really was.  Just like hurricanes on earth are classed in category strength, solar flare uses an X Rating.  This flare produced a X9.3. This flare produced satellite communications disruptions, but nothing to do real damage but just some power outages. There are stronger flares that do come which can produce havoc on earth, and even fry a few satellites.  

There is no consensus science going on here as the flipping of the sun’s poles produces a polarity switch inside the solar flares which are easily documented when they happen. Many suns tracking sites will report the flipping of the poles, so we should get a flood of data when the time comes. 

One or two years before the bottom of a solar cycle, we can get a horrific down draft in the stock markets. Until that happens this stock market is not a safe place to invest for the long term. 

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Comment On The Solar Eclipse on August, 21, 2017

National parks brace for eclipse crowds – MarketWatch

A very smart reader has made me aware that on August, 21, 2017 we will experience a solar eclipse across many parts of the USA. Other market analysts are also talking about this date, but the new moon also falls on that date. We know that new moon dates can be very bearish for stocks. Options expiration dates can also hit close to the 21st so we could be hit with triple turning dates at the same time.

If something major does happen, we will never know which one of the three indicators will be the main cause. My bet is that the solar eclipse will be shorter in duration than the new moon will have, so the new moon would impact the markets more than the solar eclipse will. In the end, we will never know if and when it happens which one will make the biggest impact.

 Many think it’s silly to think that celestial bodies have influence on earth, but all my research says that they do. Jupiter has a 11.8 year orbital cycle and Saturn has a 30 year cycle. Jupiter fits very well with the 11 year solar cycle average and the 30 year cycle is just part of the WD Gann 60 year cycle. 

What the solar eclipse on Aug. 21 will mean for stocks – MarketWatch

Mark Hulbert talks about the solar eclipse and the markets as well. 

I use a 100 year time span, which means I go back to 1917 and look forward 100 years. 100 year cycles include 4 generational cycles or seasons. In 100 years, many cycles of inflation or deflation can repeat. The majority can never think in 100 year time spans as group think doesn’t have any memory! Emotions can’t be stored no matter how big of a USB drive the group thinkers have. 

When GSC degree bears can call for a 600 year bear market, then looking 100- 200 years ahead is the minimum we must be able to do, to compete or confirm such wild claims. 

We have been brainwashed to believe that the industrial age created by man, is causing global warming. If this is true, then climate change produces the Elliott waves we see in the markets.

 I’m a firm believer in natural cycles as nothing in our universe travels in a straight line forever, even light can bend or be redirected.  

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SP500 Supercycle Review

I spent more than 10  years, counting wave structures in Grand Supercycle degree (GSC), then I moved down the degree stack and counted everything in Supercycle (SC) degree for a few years. I even started another blog just dedicated to SC degree wave counts. When I saw that the majority of expert wave analysts missed an 8 year bull market, I knew that SC and GSC degree wave counting had major flaws in it and that it must be thrown out. 

This flaw is the lack of understanding that wave 3 is always the longest wave in the general stock markets. 5th waves do extend, but they are rare and usually involve the last degree before a top. In the 1900’s I believe that the markets developed a Cycle degree diagonal 5th wave, ending with the peak in 1929. 

I don’t think a multi generational 5th wave extension can even happen, as 5th waves are generally the weakest as well. Yet every expert wave analyst counts with extended 5th waves. Those that count from a 4th wave base, will always move into a higher degree level long before it is supposed to arrive.

I will be talking about Supercycle degree (SC) from time to time, as technically the general stock markets, are still in an extended wave three in SC, and GSC degree. SC degree wave 3 has not completed anywhere, and it may not arrive until the 2029 time period. The Elliott Wave Principle is not about flipping pretty numbers and letters around, as any kid can do that. It’s all about how we visualize the idealized wave structure. Each time we label a position on paper or in our computers, we are also technically travelling in time. To time travel, I like to go back 100 years, and then look forward 100 years. Four generational seasons make up a 100 year cycle, and most economic cycles repeat themselves in 100 years. 

The short story is by “Ignoring history, we are doomed to repeat it” which is especially true in the financial markets.

Below is a chart of the SP500, which does not update that frequently, but it gives us a good long term picture from the 1929 top.


All the super bearish forecasts that will be mentioned in the future are irrelevant, if we think we are in some mythical SC or GSC degree world already. From my perspective, we are a minimum of 2 degrees lower due to the fact that wave 3s have never been extended. At times at the 2000 peak, my wave counts were about 4 degree levels lower. 

Readers must understand that I see the EWP as just one big ” Idealized impulse” wave structure, and that these wave structures are extended wave 3s not extended 5th waves. The peak in 1929 and the 1932 bottom is my wave 1-2  in SC degree, and not a wave 3-4!  Just being out by 1 degree can throw any forecast off by a minimum of 60%. (1.618) 

The same problem shows up in the 1960-1975 bear market, which the majority assumes is the location of Cycle degree wave 3 and 4.  To recap, the majority use a 4th wave base from the 1932 bottom and then another Cycle degree 4th wave base in 1975.

Labeling 1932 and 1975 as 4th wave bases would give us about an 85 year long SC degree 5th wave extension so far. That’s almost three generational seasons long, for a 5th wave extension?  Technically, this cannot happen, yet the majority of wave analysts all count from a wave 4 base.

 It’s also the main reason why experts missed the biggest bull market since the depression. (2009 -2017). How many expert wave analysts posted any wave count that was extremely bullish in 2009? No wave analysts that I was reading at that time could say with great confidence, that a multi year bull market in stocks was coming.

As long as the wave analysts believe that SC and GSC degree, are here already, then wave followers will continually  miss major bull markets. This happens because they have never gone back in history and looked for alternatives.  Going back 100 years and starting fresh, is too much like work, so until they want to do the work, the same setup that happened at the 2008-2009 bottom will happen again at the 2020-2021 time period.

The start of any new solar cycles are bear market terminators, as they will trash all bearish wave counts and related moods. The studies of the sun and the real impact on the stock market is not rocket science folks, as many have made the same connections.  

‎www.ez3dbiz.com/2016_stock_market.pdf

The link above is just one link to a solar cycle study.

 

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April, 11, 2017 Solar Cycle #24 Progress Update, And Other Comments.

 

This type of solar activity chart gets updated when the previous month has completed, and each dot represents the sunspot count at the end of the month. I have labeled some peaks that I deemed were very important,  as gold seemed to top out with the first big move up. This ended close to late 2011, but then a secondary peak formed just above the 100 sunspot count. 

The solar cycle contains many Elliott wave patterns as well, and that the secondary peak,  fits well into an expanded pattern. It would not surprise me if sc#25 will get a bit higher than 100, but that is just a gut feeling based on the pattern. SC #24 was one of the smallest in the last 100 years or so. Tracking the solar cycles for well over 20 years is the reason that climate changes on this planet. Not only does the climate change, but as soon as the solar cycle decline resumes, earthquakes and volcanic activity cranks up, and winters increase in severity.  The claim that the man-made climate change debate is settled is all bullshit, because it is the sun that sustains all life on this planet. Besides, if the science around climate change is settled, then who needs all the scientists working on the problem. 

One of the main reasons why stocks started in a major bull market, was the very fact that sc#24 had started to crank up. All bearish Elliott Wave counts regarding stocks were ruthlessly wiped out by early 2009,  and I’m sure the exact same scenario will happen again after sc#25 starts to crank up. This may still take 3 years or so, as the solar cycle can crawl along the bottom for some time as well. A year or so just before a major bottom, stock market crashes can occur, which has happened many times in history. 

This would correspond to the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom that I am looking for, and 2021 would be the 89 year anniversary from the 1932 bottom. I also had a date around December 2020,  as the potential to end the 20 year cycle, so we have some pretty important things that can happen in the next 2-3 years. 

I’m sure at the next major stock market bottom, the majority of expert wave counters will still be looking for some mysteries super decline yet to happen. These wave analysts would then be in sympathy with the herd, and that is a hidden rule that should never happen. Ignoring all contrarian indicators is a disaster for any large degree wave count, but since 2000 they have done this twice already. This will not change if they just continue using cosmetic wave counting methods.  

Any Primary degree 5 wave failure, calls for an immediate structure review going back 100 years or more. Not too many wave analysts want to do that work or even know how to do it.

All of the best contrarian indicators, should be incorporated into the EWP, and I have done my best to keep talking about these indicators as much as I can.

If the DOW ultimately ends at 8000 or a bit lower, and the majority say it’s going to 5000, then I will be happy to make a DOW 34,000 market forecast.  

One thing is certain the majority will never buy low and sell high, as it is also mathematically impossible for the majority to make money from the majority.

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Solar Cycle #24, And The Global Warming Mania!

February, 7, 2017

I started this many months ago, in early December 2016, but was never published until today!


There have been many studies made about the connection of the sun and all activities here on earth.  I have been studying the solar cycles for the last 20 years, and we can go back hundreds of years and see that these cycles happen on a regular 11-13 year cycle.  They do stretch between bottoms, as the 2008 bottom was 13 years from the last solar cycle bottom in 1996. Our present cycle is one of the smallest in the last 100 years, and it may also last close to 13 years. (2021)

All my home work shows that earthquakes and volcanic activity increases once we start to head “down” the slope of the solar cycle. It is pretty hard to miss all the stories about volcanoes, and earthquake activity.  The next thing you know they will blame volcanoes and earthquakes on man-made global warming as well.

Is it all a coincidence that the extremes in global warming have matched the extremes in the stock market? Far from it, as climate always changes as we progress up and then down the solar cycles.

The markets can be repelled from a solar cycle top, but the markets also follow the solar cycle back up.   All the fundamentals in the economy improve with the rise of a solar cycle, and then they usually fall apart just before a major bottom of a solar cycle is completed. 2007-2009 was a prime example of this happening.

This was not some lucky coincidental event, but it has happened throughout financial history many times before.

Back in the Little Ice Age and the Dark ages, sunspot activity disappeared for decades in a row. This global cooling devastated the populations of the world, as global cooling affects wheat and food production significantly.

Mini Ice Age, Long Ice Age Glaciation explained is a good video as they talk about the low solar activity and the Mini Ice Age.

 

 

As I write this, North America is in a cold snap that has broken many records already.

Arctic blasts causing heavy snow, freezing conditions across the U.S.

Winter to the extreme: Two polar vortex invasions and major storm to whip Lower 48

At these solar cycle bottoms the markets will be at a certain price level, like the DJIA was at 6500 in  March of 2009.  The next previous solar cycle low was in 1996, after which stock prices also started another leg up.  In Japan and the Nikkei bear market, this has worked the opposite way.

In the last few years, we have seen a massive amount of hype all pointing to the destruction of mankind if we continue to use fossil fuels, and keep pumping that CO2 into our atmosphere.  We have a staggering amount of scientists and environmentalist all  saying that the, “Science is settled”.

If the science is settled then there should be no need to fund climate change research anymore.  They can just fire all those scientists that are still collecting monies from governments.  Science is never settled, especially when they are doing the same thing as the hype artists do with the stock markets. I see no difference, as all the global warming computer models have failed in the last 10 years. I bet you will not find a single IPPC computer model that has “not” failed, yet they tell us that the science is settled.

Do not get me wrong as, I do not deny that the earth has gotten warmer  since the last Little Ice Age. It was not a man’s activity that caused global warming, it was the sun that had virtually no solar activity for decades at a time. This produced the Dark Ages and wiped out between 20-30% of the world populations at that time.

This did not happen just once,  but it came in cycles.

Any great civilization that flourished in the past, did so because of global warming, when global cooling arrives, many of these great civilizations disappeared or plunged into a world of fear and little food production.

The Romans did not wear skirts as a fashion statement, they wore them because of global warming.  The Vikings expanded because of global warming but were then kicked out of Greenland because of global cooling.

One can go on and on but recently we have broken some extreme global cooling numbers that the mass media will never have on their front pages.

Every year we get a high temperature reading in July and we get our low winter reading in January.

U.S average temperature 16°F – colder than any time last winter, and winter hasn’t started yet!

The story above includes the chart  where it shows the January 2016 low temperature, then it shows the recent low,  which is 4 degrees lower already,  and the coldest part of the winter is not even here yet.  Remember this is all happening when we experienced the lowest solar cycle going back 100 years.

Locally here in Surrey, BC, we have seen more snow and colder weather than I have experienced in a long time. I will add some local snow pictures below. All photos taken with an iPhone

 

 

 

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Solar Cycle #24 Update

 

 

Many people have done the research regarding the connection between the sun and our markets on earth. Yet sadly just as many times, they ignore or give up on the study. I originally got the idea from EWI, so they were fully aware of it, but they dumped all knowledge of it when the solar cycle was at a bottom in 2009.

 I have seen many important wave counting failures, leaving the wave analyst in the dust, and  ill prepared for what happen next.  Since they were at a Primary degree wave one bottom in 2009, they failed to see a massive bull market coming.   They failed to see the 2009-2016 bull market coming while all the contrarians were screaming “Buy” and all the insiders in stock companies were also on a buying rampage.  Insiders don’t buy on emotional whims, as when they buy they have a long term investing outlook. This is another reason why wave counters failed to see a huge bull market coming in 2008-2008. 

So when 2021 rolls around and the world of wave analysts are still bearish, then they will be in yet another major bear trap!  

 

 

The start of solar cycle #24 is the real fundamental reason behind the stock bull market. I’m sure this will all happen again once we reach the bottom around the 2021 time period. I have added at some solar cycle peaks and bottoms that corresponded well with turnings. The best one yet was when gold topped in 2011 and stock mania took off.  Yes, this stock mania has run since 2011, and what we’ve had was a panic into stocks since the US elections.  

“Panics are the emotional mass realization of reality”, which I quote from the EWP book. It also works on the way down like the 2008 stock market crash did. 

On any solar cycle decline the amount of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions pick up in speed, and some of the biggest volcanic explosions came in the decline of the solar cycles. About a year after a big volcanic eruption the world, temperatures drop. 

 

In short, this world has nothing to fear from global warming, and CO2, the real problems will start if we hit a few years of global cooling. 

 

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Sunspot Number Progression Update.

cycle22cycle23cycle24big

 

This is a big chart of what the solar cycle looks like, with three of the past peaks showing.  We can go back 100 years and in all cases except one, a market bullish phase started on the upswing of a new solar cycle. The lows in the solar cycles coincide very well with lows in the stock markets. 

 

solar-cycle-sunspot-number

 

For a good chart with more technical recordings, then this chart is a better one, as the black dots represent a finishing month. We can clearly see that the solar cycle is far from finished, as it declines more at turtle speed, then at rabbit speed.

The rise in solar activity is faster, as it takes less time up than down. One scientist measured the ratios and it came very close to the Fibonacci sequence. (.382 for the up cycle, and .618 of the time length of the down cycle)

In life, in the markets, and in the universe you cannot get away from the Fibonacci sequence. About 10 years ago I switched my brain over to all Fibonacci even numbers, and use them to calculate years from top to bottoms or even top to top. Just using even numbers does not require  you to sit in front of a computer screen.  For now we still should have 4 years to go when we get close to the major bottom of solar cycle #24.

When we get close I will need to hunt up the site that tracks the turnings, when the new sunspots start to poke through again. The polarity will be switched giving us the clue that the next solar cycle is starting to arrive.  Many scientists will be talking about it early as well, so we should have lots of warning that a turning is due.

 

sunspot_cycles_1926-2003

 

Here we have a simple chart of how the solar cycles affect the fundamentals of the economy and the stock market. If we look back to 1932 we also had a bottom of a solar cycle, followed by a 5 year boom in stocks.  1932 is what I call the start of Cycle degree wave zero, or the SC degree wave two. The majority of wave analysts, have the 1932 bottom, as SC  degree wave 4, which I say is completely wrong.   There are several main reasons why! I don’t think big 4th wave bottoms produce depressions, they sure can produce recessions. The other big reason is that any 5th wave that would follow will never extend as long as it did, and it would not be so well formed.

Besides the book tells us that wave 3’s should always be the longest and first waves are usally the shortest.  From the 1932 bottom, we are still in Cycle degree, but 2021 should give us a Fibonacci 89 year time period, from one low to the next stock market low.

The argument will be around the 1970’s bear market, as the majority of wave analysts counted that time period out, as Cycle degree wave 3 and 4! I sure did and it took me over a decade of counting before I started to clue in that Cycle degree wave 4 was not stuck in the 1970’s. 1975 and 1976 was also another major stock market bottom, matching the bottom in another solar cycle as well.

The 70’s time period looks like a huge bear market, but in fact it is easy to fit into a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 wave count base, producing another 5 waves up in a mega bull market. I believe the markets will never fall back to the 70’s price level in any major higher degree, but I’m sure they will keep making that forecast for the next hundreds of years.

 

djia-2016-3

 

My work is specifically dedicated to finding, confirming and keeping all Cycle degree positions first. It is mathematically impossible to move into any SC degree, before all 5 Cycle degree positions are found. Not just found, but also confirmed. I want all the Cycle degree locations to last forever, and yes, they can be spread 30 years apart, like the USD and even the Nikkei. Since 2000 we now have a total of 3 major peaks in the DJIA. Not getting these 3 peaks sorted out, will throw every wave count that will ever follow, into question.

Any wave analysts that forgets the past will be doomed to repeat it, and at a bare minimum, we have to get the last 100 years figured out right.

Missing a major bull market with wave analysis should be unacceptable, and those that had a Primary degree wave 1 bottom in 2009, have to trash their entire wave counts, and go back to 1929 and count again.  Cosmetic wave counting will not work, as it is impossible to trade on cosmetically created wave counts.

 

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DJIA Daily Chart New Record High Review: Another Bull Trap?

 

ymy00-nov-10-2016

 

This peak may be the peak that will go down in history as the major top in the markets. Yes, that all sounds great, but when it concerns any Elliott Wave structures, we can always get an expanded pattern. Our wave counts will be all over the map, if we do not even look at, or know about any expanded patterns. These expanded patterns happen frequently when it comes to any wave three peaks and any “B” wave type correction as well.

Since the election results were known, the stock market took off like a horse bolting from the gates. Most of it was all the buy stops getting hit, which were put up by the bears. Instantly, the same crowd that was bearish turn into stock bulls on the way up.

This vertical move, which cannot be maintained, must die or give us a major correction. The straighter the move, the faster it is actually going. This move is behaving more like a “C” wave than an impulse.  Since the 2015 bottom we can see that we had about 4 obvious spikes to the downside, which all turned into bullish runs.  In the last couple of days these spikes have now inverted. (C waves pointing up) This is not a good sign, and I sure would not want to be caught on the bullish side for any reason.  

There are many that are wondering how Donald Trump’s 4 year stint will do to the markets. All I can say is that he may be a president that will be in a Cycle degree crash, lasting for four years or so. With this surprise election result, this did not change any of my big bearish wave counts, except the short term wave patterns.  

The long term bullish phase in commodities, has also not changed with this election, and chances are extremely high that Donald Trump will confirm a Cycle degree wave IV crash! 2020 will be the next election, which fits very well with a major stock market turning point. 2021 is also the time period for the start of a new solar cycle, so you do not want to be bearish with the crowd at that time. All bearish wave counts at that time will get trashed, as we could get a 5-8 year bull market during the rise of solar cycle #25.

 

sunspot_cycles_1926-2003

 

Here is a good little chart that shows how much the sun cycles effect everything on this planet. Many have done this type of research, but ignore it for the most part. The 2008 bottom of the solar cycle is clear evidence you do not want to be bearish when the sunspot activity starts up. In 2008 all the bearish wave counts were crushed because of solar cycle #24. 

 

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Russell 2000, 2000-2016 Review

 

 

RJY00-July-27-2016

 

It may sound silly reviewing the big charts so many times, but it has its purpose.  Just having a bit of fun as I have to check regularly to make sure nobody steals a wave on me, changing the entire wave count without me knowing about. In reality reviewing is always the process of making sure that our present market still fits as best as it can. 

It is so easy to send a wave count into a higher degree, and checking back on a regular basis always gives us a better overall perspective. Besides, we can only find the true wave count positions in the past, as we will  never find them in the future. I can still fit the entire 2009-2015 bullish phase into a diagonal 5th wave, where the 2015 peak may be a top that could be a good spot for Cycle degree wave 3 to live. It may be well over 100 years before we will ever see another wave 3 in Cycle degree, so we really want to take our time in being sure.

I will have no problems with dumping or changing this location if some new all time high is reached. At this point the Russell 2000 still has some distance to travel to break to new highs, but this 2016 bull market has some very choppy waves in.

This blog is all about tracking the Cycle degree waves as they are the basis for any SC degree wave count to start from.  The Russell 2000 Cycle degree wave 4 bottom will be easier to see as we have a major triple bottom, starting way back in 1998.  This may give us a bottom price level between 400 and 300.

If every major wave counter is still super bearish when this happens, then their wave counts will get trashed again, and you will have no chance to buy any indices you want to accumulate. I am, looking to the 2021 time period when the next major stock bottom arrives and solar cycle #24 may have hit a bottom as well. 

Solar cycle bottoms, is the equivalent of a Terminator for bearish wave counts, and all bearish wave counts at that time will get destroyed. 

 

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The Crashing Of Solar Cycle #24

 

IMG_2542

 

In the last few days, I have noticed that the sun is blank with no sunspot activity, even today we still had no sunspots active. This may have been going on for longer as the chart below sure shows a strong dip. 

 

solar-cycle-sunspot-number

 

If we get too many spotless suns, then this Solar Cycle #24 will keep on crashing. If this keeps going at this speed, we would think that we will have an early Solar Cycle bottom. Just like back in 2006-2007 we had the  sunspot activity increase several times before it died, followed by a long drawn out bottom forming progress. This should still happen. The power of solar Cycles is an Elliott Wave terminator which will destroy any bearish and bullish wave counts we can dream up.  

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Gold And Solar Cycles

 

sc24-June-18-2016

 

I will use this solar cycle chart many times as it is updated more frequently. The black dots are the end of the month points, which makes the entire last rally during the month of May.  All the patterns you see are very similar to Elliott Wave patterns with one big difference. The difference is that the solar cycle goes up and it always comes down to zero again.  They say it is an 11 year cycle, but bottom to bottom can be anywhere up to 13-14 years long. 1996 to late 2008  was about 12-13 years, and if we use another 13 years, the next low could be close to 2021. Another way to look at it, is that the sun has a heartbeat of 9 beats every 100 years. 

The chart above only points to about 2020 as our next bottom, but we have to be open that it can to be a year or so out. When the new solar cycle starts then we should look for the polarity of the new sunspots to switch.

Going back up to the 2000 peak, we had several key asset classes (gold and Oil) that were pointing south, while stocks were pointing north with the dot com bubble. The 1980 peak in gold also matches the solar cycle, but then it was gold pointing up and stocks pointing down. In 1980 the solar cycle repelled the price of gold, as the markets started their big bullish run to the bubble top in 2000. 

I have labelled a few peaks and valleys, where some extreme turnings took place with gold, oil and stocks. I like to say that the solar cycle repels or attracts the price of gold in an alternating fashion. In 2000 the solar cycle started to reverse and started to push or pull the price of gold up, and of course stocks proceeded to implode.  The next 2007 peak for stocks ended well down the solar cycle, as stocks crashed during the solar cycle bottom  in late 2008. 

Gold hit its peak in 2011 right along with the first big solar spike, stocks were facing down at that time, but then they started a stock mania run that lasted until 2015, for now.  With a  bunch of wild corrections thrown in to confuse all of us wave counters, as we were chasing this elusive wave 2 up in Primary degree.  It should have only lasted a year at best, but the stock market kept on soaring.   Sure, it’s easy to see this in hindsight, but on the flip side wouldn’t the past be the place to look how the cycles can repeat. The up phase of a solar cycle reverberates through the entire economy as it affects everything. 

In general, solar cycles go up much faster than they ever come down, which can divide into the Fibonacial time ratio of (.382 years up to, .618 years down) Solar cycle #24 above, is one of the smallest on record with double peaks. Usually they have the secondary peak travel lower, but in this cycle the secondary peak traveled higher.  Even now there is very little sunspot activity as I only saw 2 the last time I looked.

That secondary peak was one of the best looking inverted flats that I have ever encountered, complete with an ending diagonal on its tip.  It wasn’t rocket or solar science, but I knew the last solar cycle peak had already completed.

The big thing to stress is that we should never ignore or be oblivious to the solar cycles, especially if you have any Elliott Wave knowledge. 

The last thing you want,  is to have a bearish stock wave count,  when the next solar cycle reverses. If by chance the DOW ever hit 6000 or 5999 and we are still being brainwashed by stories of  the DOW  going to 1000 or even DOW 400,  then I will say now that your bearish wave count is going to get busted. Besides, you will have no time to mentally prepare for the next big bull market, and you will be left behind holding a bag of wooden nickels.

  

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