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Category Archives: Idealized Charts

Another Idealized Cycle Degree Bear Market Chart.

 

This is a third alternate for a Cycle degree bear market where the “A B” wave in Intermediate degree rides very high near the top, followed by 5 waves down in Minor degree, not Intermediate degree. The intermediate degree 5 waves down must only happen after the “B” wave top in Primary degree. In the end, a 3-3-5 pattern should emerge. This is a bit more complex than the other two corrections that I have posted, but I assure you other even more complex patterns might show themselves as well. Elliott Wave is what you perceive the idealized pattern should be, not what you see in the markets, specifically the DJIA. The EWP originates from the DOW so the best way to understand the EWP, tracking the DJIA is critical.

I visualize the idealized EWP as being one big impulse wave where wave 3 in Submillennium degree starts about 1500 CE (Common Era) Otherwise know as the Little Ice Age. The low social mo0d at that time coincided with the witch burnings and the plagues that swept Europe. There are market records going back that far once British markets are spliced it. I have a big commodity chart that goes back to 1100 CE so the wave 2 base in Submillennium degree is in 1500 CE. From this base all wave two bases must be found first.

About 1843 the wave 2 of GSC degree completed and from that point on, any wave two bases must be in declining order, where the 1932 bottom is my wave 2 bottom in Supercycle degree. When counting from a wave 2 base, we are always making sure that wave 3 is going to be the longest. From the 1932 base, we have modern day records that really show how the wave 3 took off. The next lower degree wave two would be in Cycle degree with the 1942 bottom.

There seems to be a real theme of wave 2 bottoms coinciding with years ending in 2. The next wave 1-2 must be in Primary degree, followed by 3 more sets of 1-2 waves at sequentially lower degree levels. From the last wave 2 in Minute degree, we need wave 3-4-5 to finish wave 3 in Minor degree at the 1987 peak.

From 1987 all future waves must end with wave 3 peaks, and they must all end with a wave three top. From 1987 and into the future all wave three peaks must be in ascending order, where the count would be 3-4-5 in Intermediate degree than wave 3-4-5 in Primary degree, and in 2018 we should look for wave 3-4-5 in Cycle degree. I have more than enough idealized charts up that show 5 waves up in a Primary degree which we will need once Cycle degree wave 4 has hit rock bottom!

Markets do not make patterns that are simple for us to follow, if they did every wave counter would be a billionaire. The market follows the idealized pattern  and it is our perception of this idealized pattern that needs a critical look. I’m dedicated to locating and tracking all 5 waves in Cycle degree first, as without all 5 waves in Cycle degree having secure tops, there cannot be any SC or GSC degree wave counts anywhere! At least not on this planet!

Think of it in visual form, where Cycle degree wave 3 is Mount Everest, SC degree wave three being the Moon and GSC degree being Mars! 😯

I count from a wave 2 base first, before I look for all wave 3s to peak. After 1987 and far into the future all peaks will end with ascending higher wave 3 degree levels.

The sad fact is that our modern day EWP is a biased description of GSC degree and many are growing up in this belief of a GSC degree super crash. Needless to say we will end up with an extreme forecast that will make no sense.

I can only forecast anything from a Cycle degree perspective and any SC or GSC degree commentary I make, is about the future not the present.

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Idealized Cycle, Supercycle And Grand Supercycle Degree Review

All my work is based on the idea that the EWP is nothing but one huge impulse wave with its origins of wave zero starting at the bottom of the last ice age about 20,000 years ago.   About 8000 years ago the earths climate had already significantly warmed up, and commercial farming was picking up dramatically. Commercial farming allowed city states to grow into Empires which history has documented very well. Since then there have been ups and down trends that closely follow global warming and global cooling.

The above chart starts at the top left, with Cycle degree wave 3 followed by a Cycle degree 4th wave correction after which the markets should soar one more time. The key is what the pattern is that we would need to complete the 5th wave in Cycle degree. This would be 5 waves in Primary degree that would also follow solar cycle #25 to its top 5-8 years later.

Many times I include a triangle as my 4th wave, but that is only to show that no wave structures are even like they show us in the Little Blue Book.  Many times we would get a flat in a 4th wave position as triangles are a bit on the rare side.

The idealized chart ended in 2000 with a wave 3 in Intermediate degree followed by another 2007 top of Primary degree and now in 2017 I will be looking for a wave 3 in Cycle degree. Each wave 3 moves up by one degree which could top again closer to 2029 with a SC degree wave 3 at the right hand top of the chart above.

Nothing in the markets or life, travels as even as what they show us in the book.


This chart is the exact same thing as the top chart,  except it starts with SC degree wave 3,  but this time the 5 waves following the 4th wave correction, will be 5 waves up in Cycle degree. This sequence would end at the now famous GSC degree wave 3 top.  How long do you think that 5 waves in Cycle degree will last?  Our present Cycle degree has been running for 85 years and it’s still not finished, so any Cycle degree set of 5 waves could send us to the year 2129 before we ever reach any GSC degree  wave 3 top.

A third set of this idealized chart would get us to Submillennium degree wave 3, 200 years into the future closer to the years 2229. I see the wave 2 bottom of the Submillennium degree as being closer to the bottom of the Little Ice Age which only ended about 1850.  They called it, “1800 And Froze To Death'” and in 1816 they had the famous, “Year Without Summer”.

The LIA was documented very well by all the painters during that time, so pretending that it never happened flies against all evidence.

The two charts above will keep generations of wave analysts busy trying to confirm it. One big confirmation of the entire wave 2 base of counting would be the Cycle degree wave 4 bottom.

The majority of wave analysts is already counting in SC and or GSC degree, because they have never extended any wave 3 in the past.

The Elliott Wave Principle is not about what you see in the real  world, it’s all about what you’re supposed to see if all the 3rd waves are extended.  The DJIA is the very best in displaying the extended wave, but the majority has refused to do the work and go back 80-100 years to start a new count.

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Updated August, 27, 2017

This is the third chart in which I use the exact same template as the other two above, but this one outlines what a wave 3-4-5 in Grand Supercycle degree would count out when the third wave extends.  I will still update the first two charts, with a name change, but you can print out all three of them out and place them side by side in landscape, with our present Cycle degree on your left, SC degree in the middle followed by a GSC degree on your right.  If we are lucky Submillennium degree wave 3 may come to fruition closer to the year 2229, which is also the 300 year anniversary date of the 1929 stock market peak. Wave 1 in Submillennium degree, took about 300 years to peak out in the Midieval Warm period, followed by about a 4oo-600 year wave 2 bear market otherwise known as the Little Ice Age.

I could make a 4th chart in Millennium degree, but that would not finish until mankind is past the Age Of Aquarius!

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DJIA 2000-2017 Cycle Degree Review: With Supercycle And Grand Supercycle Degree Commentary!

I spent many years learning how to count by following all the other wave analysts who were counting wave structures in Grand Supercycle degree (GSC) and in Supercycle degree. (SC) SC degree always comes before GSC degree, and Cycle degree comes before SC degree.  The waves we see in the real world are the simple, easy waves that any wave analyst can count and label with little trouble.

The EWP is a very subjective look at the markets from a GSC degree perspective, and all the practitioners that bought the EWP book have been taught to look at the markets much the same way. After many market failures, and missed bull markets,  I decided to knock down all the degree levels by one degree, which at that time moved everything into the SC degree world.

Things started to make more sense but still it was not good enough, because I always had too many degrees left. It also never matched anything that the contrarians were already doing.  This became very obvious after the 2002 and 2009 bottoms, as the experts still had very bearish wave counts at that time, while all the contrarian indicators were telling us otherwise.  In hindsight, most wave counters were working 5 waves down in Primary degree in 2002 and 2008, yet both of these wave counts failed dramatically.

The EWP is not about what you see and what we think we can see in the markets, the EWP is all about how we visualize and draw out the 5 simple patterns, and knowing how they fit together sequentially.

To understand the EWP from my perspective, I see the EWP as one big impulse wave, with all wave three positions being the longest waves. This one big wave structure started with a wave zero, after the ice age was ending, about 13,000 years ago or about 11,000 BC.

This is a pretty specific time period, and it is when the CO2 content in the earths atmosphere, crossed above 240 parts per million.  It is when plant life started to grow dramatically and agriculture started to spread around the world. Better farming methods, warmer climates and higher CO2 content in our atmosphere help support commercial farming, which was the only way that city states or empires could grow.  

All the big civilizations grew during a high degree wave one position, with periods of  (Global warming). Civilizations, then died or were cut down during the big wave 2 declines, which coincided with periods of  (Global cooling)  Submillennium wave two can fit into the Dark Ages very well after which GSC degree wave one also formed in the 1800’s  This massive singe impulse wave structure is based all on the waves starting with a 1-2 count.

In other words, Elliott Wave 5.0 is based on all waves coming from a wave 2 base with extended wave 3s, and is “NEVER” based on the 5th wave as being the longest.  Yet, when we look at all the expert wave counts out today, most of them are based on the 5th wave as being the longest wave.  The worst of these came after the 1929 peak,  as they were all convinced that the 1929 peak was in fact a wave 3 in SC degree.

I fell into the same trap and it took me a long time before I changed 1929 to a wave 1 position in SC degree, which made 1932 a wave 2 bottom. 1932 is the start of wave zero in Cycle degree, from which another 1-2, 1-2, and 1-2 base started from. In the 1950’s it was wave 3 in Intermediate degree that was extended, pushing wave 1 in Primary degree to the 1960’s and 70s. It is also one main reason why the 2007-2009 decline contained no expanded pattern.

 

 

One huge single impulse wave structure eventually gets to the half way point,  which is when it hits a Minor degree wave one in a Primary degree wave 3 impulse.  If the 2000 peak is too high of a degree, then we know that the past wave 3 has not been extended.  I can dream up virtually any wave count you would like, and the higher the degree the more impressive it may sound. The sad fact is, that what you see are actually much smaller degree levels.  Big and tall,  does not make them higher degree levels, as it is the smaller degrees that become visible when markets extend. 

With wave two bases, eventually only the waves 3-4-5 are left to play out which is the situation in the DOW chart above.  Intermediate degree wave 3 in red peaked in 2000, followed with the wave 4 bottom, and the wave 5 peak in 2007.  The 5th wave subdivided into 5 waves as it should, and in this case must be 5 waves up in Minor degree.  This theme will repeat itself over and over again growing by one degree each time.  This will be important to understand as any 5 waves after the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, must follow in sequence as well. In other words, we must get 5 waves up in Primary degree, to keep everything in sequence, which will eventually terminate at wave 3 in SC degree.

SC degree wave 3 may take until 2029, before it gets close to finishing.  After the SC degree wave 3 tops, and then the SC degree 4th wave bottoms, what is the wave pattern we must have, before we reach any GSC degree position?  We must get another 5 wave sequence, which must be 5 waves up in Cycle degree.  At this rate any GSC degree top may still be a 100 years away.

As I have mentioned many times,  I hunt and track the 5 waves in Cycle degree, as it precedes all SC and GSC degree wave patterns. Without all the Cycle degree peaks being found, no SC or GSC degree can have a base to build from.  All SC or GSC degree price forecasts mean “nothing” in a Cycle degree world, so the next time you hear DOW 5000 or DOW 3000 being mentioned, chances are good you will be left out of the markets holding a bag of wooden nickels. 

 That 2009 failure to forecast a super bull market should never have happened, as any failure of this type of wave counting is not an EWP problem, but it’s a human problem.  The failure to go back in time and fix any non extended wave structures, must be initiated as soon as any large degree wave structure fails.

Of course, that’s too much like work, as it is easier to cosmetically change any wave position, rather than going back a 100 years, and change the basic structure. 

 

The above template is specifically meant for a Cycle degree flat correction,  followed by 5 waves up, with an extended wave three.  2017 may give us the Cycle degree wave three top, so the readers to this blog will need this template for the next few decades. With a few changes like a potential zigzag, this same template can work for the Intermediate degree wave 3 peak in 2000. Change it again to Primary degree, and this template will work for wave 3-4-5 from the 2007 peak as well.  The corrections will be alternated and may be a very fast moving zigzag and not a flat. The idea with any template is to build, and get all the degree levels and their wave counts memorized,  so we never have to look into the book again.

The EWP book only shows us nice pretty waves all the same size, which never happens in the real world. Waves are never even and they are never always impulse waves.  Diagonal waves are a big part of any wave structure, but most wave analysts just ignore them and turn everything into impulse waves. 

If I dig pretty deep into my inventory of templates and idealized patterns, I’m sure I have a SC degree wave 3 all drawn out already. Of course, all the wave counts will end, or even disappear once we enter another ice age. 

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Idealized “B” Wave Bull Market Review

 

b-wave-bull-market

This is an idealized or a blueprint chart of one potential wave pattern for our present bull market in gold, gold stocks, and  crude oil. Presently we are around or getting close to the “B” wave bottom in Minor degree, with a “C” wave bullish phase still to play out. For the majority it will end up just being a plain bull market, but where we may expect a 4th wave correction, would actually be another “B” wave decline.

Even though I show two zigzags in a row, this would still work as a 3 wave bull market labeled 3-3-5. Any Intermediate degree crash could also form with a triangle or even an expanded flat, so that is something that has to be considered when the time comes. 

We should end up by having two “C” wave bull markets in a row, but they will be different because each one is a different degree level. 

The quality of each 5 wave run will always be different, and usally alternates between good impulse waves and choppy diagonal waves. It will be the diagonal waves that help us to determine where we may be at any given time. 

How long this can take is still up for debate, but it will not happen this year or not even 2017.  Eventually this pattern will be pointing up and stocks will be pointing down, which will give us a big clue that a major reversal will be near.    

As you can see, prices are non existing in idealized charts, as the pattern is far more important than the price. 

I always used the Idealized pattern from the EWP book, but found out that in the real world they never look like what they show us.  Matter of fact, chances are good you will never see those idealized waves in the real world, because they don’t exist. You will never find a 5 wave sequence that all are the same length or the same patterns of subdivisions. One or two waves will always be extended, and many times they will contain diagonal wave structures. 

I draw all my idealized charts from memory and adjust and fine tune along the way. If we don’t use idealized charts then how do we know, what we are supposed to be looking for?  RN Elliott had to “see” the pattern before he even devised the labeling scheme. Wave counting is a secondary act, to try and confirm what we see at any given time.

When the market moves in an unexpected wave in Minor degree, then this is enough to initiate a complete review, going back in chart history as far as we have to.  New and better fitting wave positions can only be found in past history, and when we change past wave patterns, then we are also bouncing forwards or backwards in time. 

In this idealized case above, Cycle degree wave III is in our past not in our future. To stay in sequence, the next major Cycle degree bottom will be Cycle degree wave IV! 

 

 

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