In Toronto the real estate bubble has already burst and will decline for the next 3 years or even longer. Deflation is the real threat as the world fertility crash intensifies. I have family members that are going to get very hurt hanging onto extra homes as investments, or they hope to flip them. By that time listings will explode and prices will start to crash faster than you can sign a mortgage. Home investors do not realize that they are playing a severe leveraged game that even a futures traders would not do, yet it’s normal for the public to leverage themselves to the max!
Our Vancouver scene is a bit different, but it has developped a flat top which will never hold. Now look at the 2009 dip when real estate also crashed, to say it can’t happen again is serious mistake. You can’t sell a home at the speed of a mouse click, so there is no liquidity in the housing market. Buyers are refusing to show up just like in the 1926 Florida crash. I’m sure that any young couple that waits for 3 years or so will see this inflated world present, a totally different picture.
There are about 18 million empty homes in the USA and about 8 million empty homes in Japan. Toronto seems to have 99,000 empty homes, with BC having less. Investors will run to the exits when they panic and this deflationary crash is just getting started.