I’m sure many investors are still “High” on marijuana stocks but I think reality may be setting in for those that didn’t expect pot stocks to crash. I knew they would crash as as this new industry turn into a mania instantly. This ETF is showing the way and today HMMJ has created another spike to the downside. A correction may come but this market decline is far from over. I think the industry also has it shares of crooks as they just love to take advantage of the emotion. Many big companies have also crashed and the only people that made any money are the ones that participated in any of the IPOs. I will never turn bullish on this sector until all the ETFs and stocks have been crushed, and even then there is no guarantee they will go anywhere.
The wave count is more like a diagonal which is normal for anything commodities related but they are a bit smoother set of waves. Sure, the price has come down to the point where the Gold/HMMJ ratio is at about 80:1. The most expensive Gold/HMMJ ratio at one point was 49:1 in September 2018.
The dirt cheap ratio was 150:1 so we have a long way to go before this ETF turns real cheap. It may never return to the 150:1 ratio but we may catch it if it keeps heading into a ratio price brick wall.
I don’t have the time or don’t want to spend the time, tracking this ratio as I have a data base of over 28 ratios I’m already tracking. I updated most of them today while US markets were closed.
The potential start of a 5 wave run in Minor degree would match the stock markets wave count as well. I doubt that this will finish this year as it could stretch into early spring 2019.
I think many companies will disappear as margins are going to be razor thin with huge start-up costs involved as well. Then the biggest con of all is that there is a shortage of pot! Yeah right! The dispensaries in Vancouver never shut down. They’ve had their licenses for a few years already and never missed a beat waiting for the rest of Canada to wake up.
If the legal markets can’t supply inventory just yet, then the black market will always come to the rescue.
Smart investing is all about being in the right place at the right time, so do you think TLRY was a good buy when it hit $300? This move is all about FOMO and it has nothing to do with fundamentals. Who in their right mind would buy into a vertical move like this? Who was that greatest fool, thinking that the $300 price is a good deal?
The market punished these fools, with close to a 70% price crash below the $90 price level. My main interest is about the mania that has been surrounding a new industry, but some of these investors could have been sampling the product when they hit the “Buy” button when TLRY hit $300.
I do not give any investment advice on any single stocks that I post, and I have no holdings in pot-related companies at this time. I’ve had people ask me if it’s time to invest in pot stocks, and my simple answer is in the form of a question, “Do you have a trading account or investment account open”? The answer is usally, “No”. This just shows how insane any mania can get when people what to invest, that have never bought or sold any stock in their life!
I guess TLRY is in a bear market when it hit a 70% decline. Stories about pot shortages did not happen in Vancouver. Most of those dispenseries never missed a beat as they were open under municiple by-laws, not federal laws.
There is no other way of describing the legalization of marijuana use in Canada. This marijuana mania is no different than what the bitcoin mania was a few years ago. They laughed at me we I mentioned that TGOD could fall below $5, well how does $3.00 work for? I actually shorted this stock several times and made a little money doing it, but I still would not touch any of these stocks, as TGOD could disappear as many of these producers would have to merge. Size matters as I think the US-based companies are already taking over and could gobble up any other grower.
I’m sure you have heard about the great marijuana shortage up here and some shops selling out. Well, any shortage can be fixed in a month, just for every pot smoker in Canada, quit for a whole month. How long do you you think it would take them to fill all the shelves to the rafters! Marijuana is a consumer good, so it’s subject to the whims of the age group.
I’m kidding about this, as we all know that there wouldn’t be any takers in Canada!
I put up TGOD as just another inverted zigzag with an “X” wave. We could get another zigzag bull market at a later date. I do not spend any time on the fundamentals of most companies, and doing your own research is critical. I have no time and no interest in spending weeks trying to justify any fundamental homework! Even the Warrant that goes with TGOD retraced its entire bullish cycle.
This week is when the law comes down to legalize marijuana in Canada. We keep hearing about a shortage of marijuana, but this is all about “legal” pot shortages as there are no shortages of any pot on the street.
If the legal stuff has to catch-up in supply then how can all the retail dispensaries create any earnings? When the market realizes this, there could be a huge sell-off and this ETF would plunge.
Sure, there are lots of winner stocks but there are just as many losers.
Not until I see a clear correction from last months record high, will I turn bullish on any marijuana-related ETF.
There will be tax (GST ?) and a (SIN) tax as well, so this could dramatically change the positive outlook that the media is telling us.
Any move below $13 would sure help to confirm my bearish case, and sometime in the next few weeks, we should get a reaction?
Marijuana-related stocks and ETFs have gone wild in Canada. It smells like a mania to me, as it has all the same media attention as when Bitcoin went ballistic. My wave positions are just experimental, as there is no real history of cycles that I can see or use. The spiked top this September is the record top to beat, created with all the Marijuana stock IPOs that have been pushed onto the markets. IPOs always come out at peaks of the markets, so what has been happening is no surprise. I participated in one IPO (MMJ) and sold when it went vertical at about 60¢. The same stock is now around 16¢. Many single stocks have done this as I also unloaded some pot stock losers.
Not until I see a correction that makes any sense, will I turn bullish on the industry.
At a minimum, I would like to see HMMJ fall below $14, with the mainstream media being very pessimistic.
I have some initial Gold/HMMJ ratio’s recorded, but there is no way that it can be useful at this time. The Gold/HMMJ ratio is at 49:1 which makes this ratio the most expensive gold ratio to date, but still a bit away from being insane!
HMMJ soared in August. Now what? This has all the signs of a good old fashioned bear market rally, if see this rally as part of an inverted flat. I sure wouldn’t touch this ETF with a 100 foot pole as chasing a bull market will get you trampled. We will certainly find out if the marijuana mania will keep going. If this is a bear market rally then complete retracement back to the point of orgin will happen. Below $14 would be the magic number to beat and it would confirm that this rally was just a bear market rally.
I took some Gold/HMMJ ratio readings today which was 67.9:1. This is far from being cheap as we would need 150:1 to get oversold. Ratios are impossible to kill as it’s a mathematical connection, they can expand and compress to the extreme sides but the connection will never break. I keep about 20 ratios in a pool, and they give me real time feedback. This “Ratio Pool” is in-house data that most will never see or use, but I have been using them since I called the crash of oil in 2008.
How do you like this wild ride so far? Well remember it well as it can disapear just as fast. If I had the free money to short this, I sure would try and do so. Vertical runs like these just don’t last, even the open gap tells us so. I don’t know if there is an options chain on this or not but I will look into it. These wave positions are experimental as I applied diagonal wave counting methods to it, but on a much smaller scale. Gold could look like this sometime in 2019, so we sure don’t want to miss that party!
This has all the makings of a potential zigzag crash and HMMJ could start a long 5 wave decline and crash to major lows. If this happens, then I will try and be a buyer as close to the bottom that I can. My priority are the gold stock ETFs and their larger trends.
I have to check in my records but my collection of any Gold/Hmmj ratio has just started. Today this ratio is 55.33:1 measured at a high point. If this ratio has any merit with HMMJ then we will find out, as this ratio should expand by a wide margin. I think demographics and secure jobs can drive the Hemp industry cycles. Also it would be interesting to see if solar cycle #25 drives any marijuana price cycles.
The big wedge I show is it an illusion or is it real? I consider rising wedges extremeley bearish and third on my list of importance. No bottom trend line will hold against a big impending bearish move. Either way, it looks like a very interesting set-up to keep tabs on.
In reality I no longer have to fill out any wave counts until we get to the bottom. If there is enough mainstream news coverage of a future hemp industry crash, then pay attention if they all start to think alike, then they are mostly likley to be wrong and we can bet against them. I bet against the bullish wave counters every time as they are projecting the same trend as what they think they are seeing. Any crash can also take until the end of the year and then follow gold’s rebound as well.
Here we go again, with another rally attempt with this marijuana ETF, tracking the industry. Short term we are looking for a $21 resistance price level after which HMMJ can turn down again and produce a new bear market low. Any “B” wave can contain a triangle, but we know when we get one, that it will force a degree change once HMMJ bottoms.
Bare minimum its a one degree change, but others contain another higher degree level. I will not trade in this ETF as the gold markets have more natural leverage built in, besides that I want to preserve my cash when I get it.
This HMMJ chart is still the best ETF to track the legal marijuana industry. Since it is so new there really is no track record we can rely on. My wave positions could be so far off, even though we could be heading down to a flat bearish ending. My bottom trend line may not even hold, as we are close to a 75-150-day MA Death Cross in HMMJ as well.
I use X as an unknown because we really don’t have any real clue what the peak was. Best guess is a wave three peak, but that can be confirmed until I see a good correction has taken place. TGOD is a medical marijuana related company. I have a short position on TGOD ans as long as it’s in the green I don’t plan on closing off my short. $6 may look like a good base but my trend lines may tell me a different story. I might buy into this if I see it has any bottom is forming. TGOD would have to go nuts to break out sideways, but if the down trend continues, then prices should stay inside the two parallel lines.
I would never buy into this stock at this chart pattern, so shorting this stock is like testing to see if this stock is in a bear market or a bull market correction.
Remember this type of a bullish move as we could run into that with gold, in 2019. From personal experience and you are a trader then you never want to miss a 5 wave run.
Missing a 5 wave bull run (ride) in Minor degree is something you don’t want to miss. I will talk more about this in the gold section and GDX.
When an asset class goes vertical like TGOD has done after its IPO, then the people that were in the original IPO would be very rich! There is one big trick to all this as all investors have not made a single dime, until they have sold out. There were well over 2 million shares traded today and I bet many of the IPO investors are dumping to lock in their profits. The worst thing we can do is chase this bull market, but to wait until a good correction is visable.
I try to avoid single stock commentary but I can’t help it. 🙂 I show a “B” wave top in Minor degree as it syncronized well wth the peak in HMMJ. TGOD could crash so deep that it will shock most participating speculators. TGOD could retrace its entire IPO move if we are close to matching the HMMJ ETF pattern. No Price support is going to help us here if a 100% retracement is going to happen.
This is the warrant chart for TGOD and the “B”wave top is just s reference point to the HMMJ pattern. TGOD.WT could fall well below $1.00 before it could be ready to bottom.
I’m sure TGOD is not inside the HMMF ETF, but it can still act much like HMMJ. Only time will tell, as to how well they will syncronize with each other. As far as I can tell from the HMMJ ETF is that we are correcting, but not finished at this point. Once I see a sufficient correction has taken place then a full set of 5 waves up should follow. (5 waves in Minor degree) Any trader should not miss 5 waves up in Minor degree, as that is the most exciting thing you can ever experience.
We are going to get swamped with good buying opertunities, but there are only a few that know how to catch a, “falling knife”, in a “C” wave crash!
HMMJ has gone higher than anticipated so that calls for a review and come up with a better fitting wave count. I choked once I looked at the bear market as a potential triangle. We should be getting close to finishing the “D” wave in Minor degree. We should get another zigzag decline that may look completely different than the other 4. We are still missing the “E” wave. I could be completley wrong but this sideways bear market could be in a 4th wave correction. It could take the rest of the year to play out escepcially if we get many diagonal wave structures. So far this ETF is not leveraged so the wave structure may also be easier to count, once we think we have another good location.
Green Organic Dutchman Holdings Ltd. (TOR)
TGOD is a single stock which is only a little more than a month old. One thing is certain the stock has gone vertical and my bet is that a wicked correction is comming. I would like to see it correct big enough so we can have something to count. Right now TGOD has soared its entire IPO time with HMMJ, so a correction in both can happen. HMMJ’s rally started in April 2018 while TGOD started in May. It would be something if the present TGOD peak is also a “D” wave peak.
In the past month HMMJ has been on a rally that looks more like an inverted zigzag than the start of a new impulse set of waves. The bearish trend in HMMJ sure is starting to look like a 5 wave diagonal decline and if I’m right we should see this rally die and then head south again. Another set of 5 waves down in Minuette degree should land us at a wave 3 in Minor degree.
Crossing the $14 price line by even the slimiest of margins is all we need to help confirm that the bearish trend is still alive and well.
I would not touch this ETF with a 10-foot pole until all reamaing diagoanls waves are show they are all played out. If the impending decline turns into a wild diagonal then this will also help to confirm another “C” wave deline. So far this has not happend on a smaller scale, so maybe we’ll get lucky and we get a pretty clean decline.
HMMJ ETF crash through that $15 price level, but instantly reversed. It also reversed right at my bottom trend line. This may only be a temporary stop and I would not think about going long until any potential diagonal decline has fully played out. Even then this ETF is acting much like Bitcoins have been doing as they have no leverage content inside the ETF. I can tell because if it was leveraged, these waves would be far more wild and violent.
There are no established cycles at this time, which makes it harder to trust any bottom even when it looks real good. If HMMJ ever hits 5 dollars, then we could even see an inverse stock split.
This HMMJ ETF is related to the marijuana industry and has little history since it only started in 2017. Last years bullish phase counted out as a near perfect wave 3 extended wave structure. We actually don’t know if this moon shot was a wave 3, but it sure looks like at this time. The $15 price level could still get retraced and we will find out how much that bottom trend line has sway over any bullish phase still to come.
Every bullish move needs a sufficient correction, and a real bullish wave count would turn this decline into a triangle. Yes, a triangle, It might not even slice through my bottom trend line, because the “E” wave has already advanced too far. Any real moves outside the bottom trend line, will force me to chuck the wave count into the trash bin.
This marijuana related ETF is what I use to track the hemp related companies. Since its vertical move HMMJ has been in what looks like a correction. Sure, there may be more upside, but over all the marijuana market has been swamped with growers getting into the action. This has produced a legal marijuana glut in Canada and the wholesale price of hemp has been crashing for two years already. The best days are already gone even before they seemed to get going.
There is not much difference between the hemp industry in Canada and Bitcoins. We had our “Hemp Mania” blow its top earlier this year not that far apart from the Bitcoin Mania. The days of easy money are over, and it will take a considerable amount of time doing due diligence to figure out which companies still “may” soar! I don’t have the time to do all that work, as I have my hands full with maintaining all my wave counts.
I kept the degrees small and started with a Minuette degree 3 wave zigzag, followed by two sets of 1-2 counts. The second 1-2 wave is two degrees lower, but I use that as if a wave 3 extension is coming. If this ETF deviates from its internal impulse structure, then this wave count will get instantly thrown out.
We may be in a triangle, but then we need three more zigzags to confirm it. In this potential triangle the second zigzag would also have to go much higher and add onto the “C” wave. At times there is very little difference between an “ABC” count and a “1,2,3” count, so we have to see if this scenario plays out.
The Marijuana market in Canada has imploded as the legal supply side has already caught up to the legal demand side. New growers have flooded the markets, and most of them will disappear if their growing costs cannot compete with the top growers.
The wholesale prices of marijuana have already been crashing for several years, which is a main indicator that supply is flooding the markets.
The vertical move of HMMJ was suspicious the first time I saw it, as it’s not a good thing to jump on a bullish bandwagon after it already has gone vertical.
HMMJ has just about reached the previous 4t wave dip I had mentioned, but this all means very little in the big scope of things. This could all “flat line” if it turns into a one hit wonder. Tulip Mania was a one hit wonder so Reefer Madness could also be another one hit wonder.
Legal Marijuana Prices Are Plunging in Colorado, but Not for the Reason You’d Expect — The Motley Fool
Pot wholesale prices dive as growers flood market
The coming marijuana crash | Vancouver Sun
Wholesale pot prices hit new low as legal weed market sees surge in supply – Washington Times
The landscape of our new budding industry is turning at the wholesale price levels. It’s the price per gram or the price per pound that has been crashing since 2016. This means that the legal supply is catching up to the legal demand, faster than we thought would happen.
This also means that any producer who is not the lowest cost grower will have little chance of making it big, if they survive at all. Once the government forces packaging regulations on growers, then the cost of growing marijuana increase as well. Electricity costs are a major factor where growers will set up operations. Much like Bitcoin mining, indoor hemp farming takes up just as much power where you grow 24/7.
This wholesale price crash is far from over, but really has not translated into lower retail prices. It was scary the first time I saw this HMMJ ETF and that hasn’t changed any when I look at it now.
I’m going to make this HMMJ ETF the mainstay ETF that I will track the high flying marijuana stocks. It’s in Canadian funds but there is a US dollar version out as well. The last time I mentioned that the vertical move this ETF has made could not be maintained, and this correction is a result of going too fast, too far.
I will not post intraday results, but only post when a strong turning can happen.
It can take years to build a decent wave count, but the rally between my two arrows, is one of the best real-world examples of an impulse, I have seen. Wave 1 subdivided very nicely with wave three also extending as it contains a perfect 1-2, 1-2 and a third 1-2 wave structure. The last 5th wave did the real heavy lifting as it extended dramatically.
The near perfect 5 wave sequence suggests that there are no leverage products involved, so these moves are organic and no slippage or other detrimental leveraging tools seem to be present. From my perspective, this is a very good thing. Is the dip down to $19 enough of a correction or is there a bit more to go down to the $15 price level? Gaps are present, but if gaps appear under more volume than I will use them.
From the bottom arrow to the top arrow, there was over a 300% gain in just 5-6 months. I manage to catch most of a single stock for a 660% gain but will look at buying it again with 3 other hemp-related growers. Some of the single marijuana stocks are moving like Cryptocurrencies have moved, which is a unique opportunity for investors with Canadian funds. Jumping on any bandwagon could be the end of a run, so as soon as a person buys in, it dramatically corrects.
It may take the rest of the month before the correction is finished, but it could end early and the bull market would resume without me.
I am also starting to track the Gold/HMMJ ratio and so far it has been fluctuating in a pretty crazy fashion. The bottom low was close to a 150:1 ratio with a top ratio touching 51:1. Today it sits at 62:1. I don’t have enough history just yet to make the Gold/HMMJ ratio useful, but over time the ratios should become very useful.
This chart is a bit old, but this morning’s action doesn’t change any of the wave counts. HMMJ is already at $20 this morning.
Talk about a wild ride with this Hemp related ETF. It peaked at $25.56 before it reversed in a dramatic fashion. Any move like this cannot be maintained and it must correct. To go vertical it does so under high speed until no more suckers are left chasing a bull market. As a herd they have to take a break form buying as well.
I counted the bottom as a truncated 4th bottom, but with a small degree. If there is more to this bullish phase, then we should get some type of a 3 wave declining wave structure, much bigger than any correction we have seen. We have gaps open well below present prices, but they can’t be trusted for potential reversals at this time. If we are in any type of a wave 1 top, then a 50-60% correction could happen.
The $13 price level is my previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which also matches the bottom trend line. On Monday I sold my Hemp stock after going ballistic, but I will buy it back once a sufficient correction unfolds.
Finding a great bottom with this HMMJ ETF will not be a walk in the park, as we can be far off the mark when it happens. Now if the 6 o’clock news is full about crashing Hemp stocks, then chances are good any bearish phase has ended, and a reversal would be near. Of course we have no clue at what price level that can happen at.
Our entire planet runs on price and fundamental analysis, but everything I do is pattern related. The pattern has to show itself first, as it matters little if a wave 2 bottom is $5 or $50
I do not give “Buy or Sell” recommendations on any ETF or single stocks. I can only relay my feelings if I’m bullish or bearish at any given time. I have several Marijuana related stock positions myself, but which ones that will move into a bull market, takes many years of due diligence. Or you trust someone that has done his due diligence already. I have some people I meet that want to jump on the Hemp bandwagon, but yet when you ask them if they have a Canadian trading account set up, they say, “No”. These kinds of investors are jumping in with an emotional decision and are many years behind or late.
These types of investors that are getting in because they hear about the Hemp bull market in Canada from friends and news networks are far too slow or late.
The HMMJ, Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (ETF) is a prime example of a well advanced bullish phase. HMMJ can keep right on going, but chances are good when you jump in, a correction ensues and this ETF could drop 30-40% in no time at all.
Sure Canada has a great new bull market, but all this hype could end once the legal supply and demand numbers get filled. Unless the numbers tell me different, Canada’s hemp users are not growing by leaps and bounds, but the numbers could eventually run into a brick wall with no new users trying the product.
Any grower has to follow strict Canada Health Board regulations, so there are major hoops that any legal grower has to abide by.