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Category Archives: Misc.

HMMJ Reefer Madness In Canada!

 

 

This week is when the law comes down to legalize marijuana in Canada.  We keep hearing about a shortage of marijuana, but this is all about “legal” pot shortages as there are no shortages of any pot on the street.

If the legal stuff has to catch-up in supply then how can all the retail dispensaries create any earnings?  When the market realizes this, there could be a huge sell-off and this ETF would plunge.

Sure, there are lots of winner stocks but there are just as many losers.

Not until I see a clear correction from last months record high, will I turn bullish on any marijuana-related ETF.

There will be tax (GST ?) and a (SIN) tax as well, so this could dramatically change the positive outlook that the media is telling us.

Any move below $13 would sure help to confirm my bearish case, and sometime in the next few weeks, we should get a reaction?

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VIX Daily Chart Update.

 

This VIX responds to this as it is made up of options on the SP500. It is the main reason why the VIX contains such wild moves. Impulse waves are a rare luxury in the VIX, so if you don’t understand the wild patterns involved, we can’t get close to see a reversal in stocks.

The VIX bear market also ended in early 2018, after which the VIX exploded as my potential “A” wave in Intermediate degree.  We do have a vertical spike, from which we can get a correction or the end of a larger trend. The high of $28 has been reached and the next few weeks will tell, as I think the $50 price level still needs to get retraced. Ultimately the VIX should exceed the $90 price level, but not on this trip. The VIX pointing straight up is a buy signal for stocks, but it could also be a very short buy signal. When we hit the Primary degree top of the VIX, this is when we can take some long positions for the impending “B” wave counter rally still to come. One more move above 50 may do it, but only time will help confirm that.

Falling wedges create some kick-ass reversals, and the VIX is a prime example of that. The US dollar has a large falling wedge as well, as both will produce new long-term trends.

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HMMJ: Reefer Madness In Canada Update!

 

Marijuana-related stocks and ETFs have gone wild in Canada. It smells like a mania to me, as it has all the same media attention as when Bitcoin went ballistic. My wave positions are just experimental, as there is no real history of cycles that I can see or use. The spiked top this September is the record top to beat, created with all the Marijuana stock IPOs that have been pushed onto the markets. IPOs always come out at peaks of the markets, so what has been happening is no surprise. I participated in one IPO (MMJ) and sold when it went vertical at about 60¢. The same stock is now around 16¢. Many single stocks have done this as I also unloaded some pot stock losers.

Not until I see a correction that makes any sense, will I turn bullish on the industry.

At a minimum, I would like to see HMMJ fall below $14, with the mainstream media being very pessimistic.

I have some initial Gold/HMMJ ratio’s recorded, but there is no way that it can be useful at this time. The Gold/HMMJ ratio is at 49:1 which makes this ratio the most expensive gold ratio to date, but still a bit away from being insane!

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CRB Boom And Bust Cycles 1865-2011 Review

 

I have mentioned it many times that I use the 30-year commodities cycles to help forecast time into the future as well as into the past. You can let your thoughts run wild here but we can see, that being out by just 1 single degree can send you reeling as you warp drive on paper everytime we mark down a degree. 30-year, 60-year, 90-year and the 120-year cycles are all the same. A 600-year span would be 10, 60-year cycles, just short of a Fibonacci number 610. Commodities run on their own idealized pattern that is all based on diagonal wave structures, which are just zigzags connected to each other.

A shorter description might be that we take the ending diagonal 5th wave in our EWP book, and stretch it horizontally and print it on legal paper size. Some of the bear markets below have lasted 17-18 years before the next “C” wave leg would start.

From 1920, and what I have is the SC degree wave 1 peak, we can count forward 90 years and we get 2010, off by one year peaking in 2011. Take 2011 and ad yet another 90 years, we get 2101!

the year 2101 is Submillennium Degree wave 3. Adding only 30 years to the 2011 peak, we get 2041 as a potential year for SC degree wave three to end. I count gold out much the same way as I firmly believe that the 2011 peak was a 30-year mania cycle peak and not some correction in an ongoing bull market.

Since many commodities are in the CRB different pattern in the corrections also happen. The main thing is we can use the 2011 wave count (position) to establish a very strong base to count from into the future. Wave analysis is not about flipping numbers and letters around like they are chicken on the barbecue, as I just can’t change the 2011 wave position on a whim anymore!

If you still see many wave analysts change their 2011 location around, then they have no clue where they really are. Any wave 5 peaks, that you see on the net, that are not capped, instantly tells you that the wave analyst is lost.

Looking at all commodities from a Cycle degree perspective is not something I just dreamed up but was a sequential retreat from GSC degree, then down to SC degree, and for the last few years, it’s all done from a Cycle degree perspective.

Elliott Wave is not about counting what we see, but it’s all about what we are supposed to see if our vision of an idealized diagonal is real! Just because something goes sideways does not mean it’s an automatic 4th wave.

 

 

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VIX Futures A Correction or a Bear Market!

 

The world of commodities are connected with zigzags which are just diagonal waves, than can overlap. The VIX is some of the worst diagonal wave structures you will see, with siver getting my second vote.  I look for the rough outline first. This has the potential to be a corrective zigzag. It would be nice that next week the VIX will still close that gap below us, after which fear could strike the markets on an even bigger scale.  SP500 options make up the VIX, so we can see the extreme violent swings options can produce.

Spikes to the downside can happen in a flash, and usally at the end of a run, so you got to be fast to catch any bottom in the VIX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Apple: Did Warren Buffett Push Apple To The Limit?

 

Maybe I’m the odd ball as I see Warren Buffett go out of his way to by into Apple stock at world record highs. Warren Buffett created his own bull market and the majority are falling into the same trap.  What does Apple do with all this free money?  They go out and blow it buying their own shares back at world record highs.  It see it as a complete waste of money given to them by the share holders. Sooner or later Warren Buffett will have to take a rest, and when he does this Apple stock will crash!  We now have another major AAPL stock peek and it has started to back off in the last few days. In the long run all asset classes are going to suffer a deflationary crash and Apple will not be exempt from this. You can pour over the fundamentals all you want, but fundamentals always tell us the wrong things at the extremes.

The Gold/Apple ratio speaks volumes if you know how to use it. A record expensive ratio has been at 7.29:1, this has now been blown out of the water and this morning this ratio stands at 5.48:1, which is the most expensive reading I have ever recorded with the Gold/Apple ratios.

We would have to get to 21.81:1 before it becomes cheap again.  We would need a bit bigger decline so it has no more time to hit another new record top in 2018!

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HMMJ: Bull Market Coming To An End?

 

HMMJ soared in August. Now what?  This has all the signs of a good old fashioned bear market rally, if see this rally as part of an inverted flat.  I sure wouldn’t touch this ETF with a 100 foot pole as chasing a bull market will get you trampled. We will certainly find out if the marijuana mania will keep going. If this is a bear market rally then complete retracement back to the point of orgin will happen. Below $14 would be the magic number to beat and it would confirm that this rally was just a bear market rally.

I took some Gold/HMMJ ratio readings today which was 67.9:1. This is far from being cheap as we would need 150:1 to get oversold. Ratios are impossible to kill as it’s a mathematical connection, they can expand and compress to the extreme sides but the connection will never break. I keep about 20 ratios in a pool, and they give me real time feedback. This “Ratio Pool” is in-house data that most will never see or use, but I have been using them since I called the crash of oil in 2008.

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HMMJ: Another Wild Ride Up! Or Crash And Burn?

 

How do you like this wild ride so far? Well remember it well as it can disapear just as fast. If I had the free money to short this, I sure would try and do so. Vertical runs like these just don’t last, even the open gap tells us so. I don’t know if there is an options chain on this or not but I will look into it.  These wave positions are experimental as I applied diagonal wave counting methods to it, but on a much smaller scale. Gold could look like this sometime in 2019, so we sure don’t want to miss that party!

This has all the makings of a potential zigzag crash and HMMJ could start a long 5 wave decline and crash to major lows. If this happens, then I will try and be a buyer  as close to the bottom that I can. My priority are the gold stock ETFs and their larger trends.

I have to check in my records but my collection of any Gold/Hmmj ratio has just started. Today this ratio is 55.33:1 measured at a high point. If this ratio has any merit with HMMJ then we will find out, as this ratio should expand by a wide margin. I think demographics and  secure jobs can drive the Hemp industry cycles. Also it would be interesting to see if solar cycle #25 drives any marijuana price cycles.

The big wedge I show is it an illusion or is it real? I consider rising wedges extremeley bearish and third on my list of importance. No bottom trend line will hold against a big impending bearish move. Either way, it looks like a very interesting set-up to keep tabs on.

In reality I no longer have to fill out any wave counts until we get to the bottom.  If there is enough mainstream news coverage of a future hemp industry crash, then pay attention if they all start to think alike, then they are mostly likley to be wrong and we can bet against them. I bet against the bullish wave counters every time as they are projecting the same trend as what they think they are seeing.  Any crash can also take until the end of the year and then follow gold’s rebound as well.

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HMMJ ETF Update

Here we go again, with another rally attempt with this marijuana ETF,  tracking the industry. Short term we are looking for a $21 resistance price level after which HMMJ can turn down again and produce a new bear market low. Any “B” wave can contain a triangle, but we know when we get one, that it will force a degree change once HMMJ bottoms.

Bare minimum its a one degree change, but others contain another higher degree level. I will not trade in this ETF as the gold markets have more natural leverage built in, besides that I want to preserve my cash when I get it.

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HMMJ Bear Market Update

This HMMJ chart is still the best ETF to track the legal marijuana industry.   Since it is so new there really is no track record we can rely on. My wave positions could be so far off, even though we could be heading down to a flat bearish ending. My bottom trend line may not even hold, as we are close to a 75-150-day MA Death Cross in HMMJ as well.

 

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TSLA Record High Update

This may be my last posting regarding Tesla as it may delist and go private. SpaceX is already private and TSLA may soon join SpaceX. The short players have been getting burned as close to 31% of the entire TSLA float has been shorted. Investopedia is an excellent site to get information about any market meanings and technical indicators.

They do a big spread about TSLA short players and how they get squeezed. Still TSLA is also approaching a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, but we may never find out if we can’t get private price charts on TSLA. Many companies have delisted in the past so it’s not that uncommon.

The Gold/Tsla ratio is a bit better at 3.4:1, down from an extreme of 1.13:1. I’m sure TSLA stock will not hold up, and sooner or later it will take out my 4th wave support at the $140 price level.

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VIX Daily Chart: VIX Bear Trap Review!

The amount of time the VIX has been correcting just about puts it into an Intermediate degree position. It’s still a VIX bear trap any which way you want to look at it, as it is only a matter of time before the fear gauge starts to crank up again. The Death Cross finished about a month ago but the Golden Cross will still happen. The commercials are net long while those hedge funds or speculators are betting with net short positions. One group is always wrong and it sure isn’t the commercials. Combine that with a wedge and you have a deadly chance of the VIX exploding to new record highs by the end of this year.

Fear is going to come back regardless, after which the commercials will be turn net short again. Deflation is the main threat as we come of the most inflated asset world in history.  Another quick flash to the downside can still happen, so we have to be aware of that.

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Facebook Is Not Going To The moon!

Just in case FB investors don’t know, but Facebook is doomed just like all other Nasdaq related stocks. Facebook is running out of people as even the younger crowd is bored with it. After all how many cat and dog tricks are there? This rally that could be just finishing is just another bearish rally, but a small one to boot. If such a small counter rally can get the FB bulls all excited again, then they are pretty easy to fool on any counter rally of larger degree levels. Still, even if I had the available cash I personally would not short FB, Apple or any other popular stock, that many are also trying to short. TSLA also has an open gap, below present prices.

Elon Musk thinks he is bigger than the entire market, as he is constantly fighting the TSLA bears with his own stock purchases.

 

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Apple: Another Price Peak?

This morning Apple hit another price peak before it reversed. Any new record high could be the last record high that may take decades before it is ever achieved again. Warren Buffet is sitting on a big pile of cash, and that alone should be a warning that stock market investors should be building up cash positions. Just about every tech titan have massive cash positions, so they are already to buy low once the opportunity arises again. The peak seems to be $209.50 so far and Apple would have to crash to $190 to close off this huge gap. By any metric you want to use all the markets are in the biggest inflated stock market in history and when it gets serious in correcting, prices will head south.

Even the Warren Buffet indicator is flashing serious downside warnings as it shows extreme valuations. The Gold/Apple ratio also created a new record high at 5.84:1 this morning so.  The lower the price of gold goes and Apple does not follow, then this Gold/Apple ratio will only get worse.

I’m sure you are reading about all the share buy back programs being implimented, with Apple being no exception. I think company initiated buyback programs rips off all those rich investors as it is a clear signal that they can waste their money buying their own shares back at world record highs.  All their trying to do is manipulate their own stocks higher to appease rich investors.  The amount of money big corporations spend to prop up their share price, Apple alone could have launched a mission to mars many times over, and even stop of on Titian for a little sidetrip. 🙂 Hey, I would love to see that Apple Logo on a big Falcon 9 heavy rocket.

When high tech companies start paying dividends, then this company is signaling that, “Hey we got so much money we don’t know what to do with our cash”! So they give cash away to investors, who do and have done absolutely “nothing” to enhance the company itself.  Did investors work on the production line? No, they are leaches and are just along for the ride. If investors ride along with a trillion dollar company, then how much will they lose once Apple stock crashes by 70%?

Running with the bulls is dangerous, as it takes nothing to get trampled to death by the herd!

High inflated stock prices, ridiculous high real estate prices is not good for anyone escpecially for the younger generations. 2-3 years from now I’m sure we will have a new reality that no one expects today. Deflation is the real threat to investors and the Fed is fighting the very same inflation that they created in the first place.

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The Warren Buffet Indicator: Pain Awaits For Investors!

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-favorite-metric-suggests-some-serious-pain-awaits-investors-2018-08-06

 

I think this MarketWatch post says it all! Combine that with the Death Crosses on just about every asset class, and we have the set-up for a serious crash going into the fall.

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BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cycle Degree Peak 2007-2018 Review

 

If Warren Buffet keeps buying blue chip stocks then I would say he just about owns the DJIA with all his holdings. He bought into many stocks at record highs, with Apple being one of the biggest buys at record highs. Invest with the herd and you die by the herd, so I fully expect BRK.A to crash right along with all other indices around the world. The world is going into a major deflationary crash, which even Warren Buffet is powerless to stop. It will not surprise me to eventually see BRK below the $100,000 price level.

That is only the middle of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree as sometimes they push even lower, like the markets did in the 2009 bottom. Only the rich can play this game as the rich own 80% of the markets. Real Estate prices around the world are crashing already, as the rich can no longer afford to hang on to investment properties where prices  are falling faster than leaves of a maple tree in the fall!  Top smart money mangers have already sent letters to thier clients warning them. My friends and family members will watch it on the 6’oclock news this fall.

It is the world fertility crash that is going to completley change this world to a deflationary world. Our dying boomer generation are permanent sellers of real estate and they may even have several or more empty homes to get rid off.  For those than can wait 3 years or so, they will see a different stock, gold and housing landscape, from anything imaginable today.

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Real Estate: The Biggest World Bubble In History Review!

In Toronto the real estate bubble has already burst and will decline for the next 3 years or even longer. Deflation is the real threat as the world fertility crash intensifies. I have family members that are going to get very hurt hanging onto extra homes as investments, or they hope to flip them. By that time listings will explode and prices will start to crash faster than you can sign a mortgage.  Home investors do not realize that they are playing a severe leveraged game that even a futures traders would not do, yet it’s normal for the public to leverage themselves to the max!

Our Vancouver scene is a bit different, but it has developped a flat top which will never hold. Now look at the 2009 dip when real estate also crashed, to say it can’t happen again is serious mistake. You can’t sell a home at the speed of a mouse click, so there is no liquidity in the housing market. Buyers are refusing to show up just like in the 1926 Florida crash.  I’m sure that any young couple that waits for 3 years or so will see this inflated world present, a totally different picture.

There are about 18 million empty homes in the USA and about 8 million empty homes in Japan. Toronto seems to have 99,000 empty homes, with BC having less. Investors will run to the exits when they panic and this deflationary crash is just getting started.

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Apple 10 Day Mother Of All Gaps!

About the only “FAANG” stock to still take a hit is Apple. Every hedge fund loves this stock and Warren Buffet owns billions of shares. The huge open gap to the upside is more like an exhaustion gap, and it will get filled again. Facebooks gap may never get closed as these growth stories do come to screeching halts and even disappear!

Yes, I’m very bearish on all asset classes except for the US dollar. The world investors are sitting on a Death Cross that they know little about, and they may wake up once the stock markets crash right along with gold.  I keep gold ratios on about 10-15 asset classes which are all in-house indicators that tell me when any asset class is out line, to the cash price of gold. This Gold/Apple ratio now sits at a ratio of 6:1 the most expensive reading in my records. For the last 2 months it’s been under 7:1, so that tells me the Gold/Apple ratio is hitting a brick wall!  Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes and Apple is no different.

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News Flash! Gold Bear Spotted!

If you ever want to see a visualization of our present gold bear about to attack, then this is it! He has his sights on the fish, which represents our present-day gold investors. I’m sure there are many gold bugs that the salmon has been eating so this gold bear gets an appetizer to boot.  One slash with his right claw, into his mouth, and this fishes head is chopped off!

If you are not a contrarian or take a contrary outlook in the gold market, then you will become a victim just like the fish!

 

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It’s Going To Be A Hot One!

 

Sanatana “Smooth”

For the next three days, this screenshot from our Surrey area shows the highest temperature for the entire year. Usually we get our warmest weather in July  and so far It has not disappointed me. I may take a break from publishing and lighten up in the postings, until Monday.

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Mark Zuckerberg’s Flash Crash And $16.8 Billion Wipe out

Facebook

What you see all happened close to the end of the day. This flash crash will not show up until when trading begins. FB crashed all the way down to just below $195 and then soared right back up to the 217.50 close this Wednesday. This was strictly computer generated as no human can react this fast. If there were humans invoved then it would be choppy as hell, or we can actually see some waves. I will add to this in the next few days, but my last top posting was on June 30, 2018 when FB was about $200. FB traveled an additional $18 before this sudden flash crash happened. At a bull market top this is not a good sign as billions of investor money also when up in smoke like Mark Zugerburg’s $16.8 billion did. Investors are going to start thinking twice if this stock is worth holding.

This is another reason why I trade and don’t invest, because the smart traders that had puts out on FB turned out to be big winners!

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Amazon When will It Crash And Burn?

A person can waste a lot of time and money trying to short Amazon as it just refuses to die. It will never stay up as we are going into a deflationary crash the likes we haven’t see since the 2008 crash. I would be going for a Cycle degree wave three top in Amazon as well.  It does not take rocket science to know what Amazon sells is commodaty related and depends entirely on the consumer keeping up their spending habits . Shop till you drop seems to the magic word for AMZN.

At $1858 as the top so far, Amazon would have to drop like a rock. Any larger drop would sign it’s death warrnt!  Look at the gap at $1000 so that be one small area for a bounce.

The gold/Amzn ratio also hit its highest today with a 1.49:1 ratio. The most expensive all year so far.

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West Coast Border Gold Home Page And App!

Border Gold Home Page

For those that want to sync up with the source of gold retail and spot prices, then get the two following page and one app onto your smart phone home screen.

 

I’m getting all my friends to add these two sites to their front page and below is a screen shot from their app, mostly in spot prices.

I’m getting a few to sync up but if you want to see a gold crash in action then we may as well stare at the screen on our smart phones. All gold has to do is cross this $1047 price level which confirms that our present rally was nothing but another bull trap! The entire world is going to watch which comes in first, $1400 gold or $1047 gold!

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Crashing Lumber Prices Update

The last time I was calling for a top in lumber prices it was starting to form that, now obvious spike, that we still can see. These spikes show up as thin hairs in candlestick, and I decided pretty early on, that I didn’t want to count  hairs for the rest of my life. Imagine me trying to make a living counting hairs, yet the entire world uses candlestick constantly.  The entire world can’t make that single click to dump candlestick when producing positions in commodities.  I will not post intraday charts on lumber, as I don’t have the time, and will not fill out every little wiggle that we might come across to entertain my readers.

It is very important to track lumber as I see it as being the canary in a coal mine, to what is going  to happen across the entire real-estate world. I believe that the Cycle degree wave 3 position is good, and that we could be at a position where lumber prices could be subdued for many decades to come. It has to do with the world fertility rate implosion, that is going to have huge implications on the prices of all commodities including precious metals of all types. They are all sitting on Death Crosses, and we can see that lumber  has rolled over and will slice that 200-day MA creating the Death Cross at the same time. This is a Cycle degree crash and we could be heading for a bear market that will kill many jobs, that may never come back!

Been there done that folks, as we are facing the same situation that happen when I was working in the forest industry, when gold crashed in 1980. My buddy still works in the same sawmill when I joined them as my plant was toast a long time ago by then. We hope to have a bigger meeting with more of his co-workers sometime, but after they meet me, they may never talk to me again.  Gold bugs tend to get pretty agitated when you tell them that gold is going to crash below $800. I like watching them squirm when I say the $700-$800 gold is real support, not that unstable $1050 price level, that the entire gold investing community thinks is a base. The gold boom is over, and it was finished in 2011 as that was a 30 year gold mania top, that will not happen again until 2041 or Supercycle degree peaks.

At this stage of the game it looks like so many asset classes are sitting on Death Cross, that I have to shake my head in disbelieve thinking that this can’t happen.

I have been showing another friend who has lost millions and made millions, and I showed him my gold scenario, and so far he has directly told me that he agrees with the impending gold crash. This person is the only person that has seen my charts in great detail in the last decade as we are both traders at heart. Some of my old bosses turned to futures trading once they retired as well.

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Copper Another Death Cross In Waiting!

Every commodity I check and apply the 50-day  200-day MA to, I get the same reading. Copper has had one Death Cross, a small Golden Cross and now is set to created another Death Cross in the near future. The [A] wave back in 1980, add 30 years to that and we get 2011 after which copper also imploded!  Add 30 years plus or minus 1 year and we get 2041 which would be a Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. 2071 will get commodities to Grand Supercycle degree top

Of course investors are oblivious to this and refuse to call the Death Cross anything important. Well folks, Cycle degree Elliott wave will eat gold bug investors for breakfast if they think it’s a good time to invest in gold. I have added some trend lines we could catch the bottom of an “A”wave in Primary degree as well. How tall that “B” will be is uncertain, except it cannot go to new record highs if a zigzag will happen. When commodities correct they come down with a “thud” not on some soft landing like gold and copper has made. Does 2008 look like a “thud” to you! It sure was but that was a flat crash. 3-3-5 A flat disguised as a zigzag.

From the [B} wave bottom in 2001 and to the “C” wave bull market tops has just about formed a perfect impulse with a huge 5th wave extension. The world is going into a deflationary crash and no little $1050 will hold it back.  That long spike you see on the chart 4th wave bottom has a huge spike to the downside and it is also a signal to close off shorts.  Now the Death Cross is just ready to touch and the rest will be history.

I also have been taking the Market Vane report for a month or so, but I stayed mum on it as it is another report that should confirm my suspicion. How it works,it only tracks the bullish amount in the markets. The less bulls there are the sooner a reversal come. The highest bullish reading was 91, which is extreme to a crash low of 16% bulls. At 16% a huge bull market formed. Lumber was another extreme at 98% and it’s well on its way in its crash.

I have never had such a line up indicators that are telling me the everything is going to take a deep hit into this fall. The DOW should also follow commodities  down, but also could correct right along with gold.

I have personally warned my two sisters and daughter in what could happen into this fall, so they now whats going on and to make them feel better about my trading in this market. I told them not to worry as I might even make a few thousand on the trip down.

 

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TGOD Bear Market Update

I use X as an unknown because we really don’t have any real  clue what the peak was. Best guess is a wave three peak, but that can be confirmed until  I see a good correction has taken place. TGOD is a medical marijuana related company. I have a short position on TGOD ans as long as it’s in the green I don’t plan on closing off my short. $6 may look like a good base but my trend lines may tell me a different story. I might buy into this if I see it has any bottom is forming. TGOD would have to go nuts to break out sideways, but if the down trend continues, then prices should stay inside the two parallel lines.

I would never buy into this stock at this chart pattern, so shorting this stock is like testing to see if this stock is in a bear market or a bull market correction.

Remember this type of a bullish move as we could run into that with gold, in 2019. From personal experience and you are a trader then you never want to miss a 5 wave run.

Missing a 5 wave bull run (ride) in Minor degree is something you don’t want to miss. I will talk more about this in the gold section and GDX.

 

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Copper Monthly Chart: Waiting For The Death Cross!

Is copper in a bull market or is the 2016 bullish phase just a bear market rally? In order for the markets to confirm it is a bear market rally, copper prices have to retrace all, and then fall below the point of origin. Which is just below the $2 price level. We have a wedge, which is screaming “danger, danger”at us. Another big bearish indicator is the potential for a Death Cross to come next!  Starting back with the first DC, followed by a GC. Then a small DC and an instant GC, where we are right now. So a monthly chart Death Cross is just below us, and it’s also in the middle of a wedge.

With a trade war in full swing is copper going to stay at these prices? Not in my Cycle degree world. With so many Death Crosses forming, copper is going to crash right along with all the other commodities. It happened in 2008 and it sure can happen in 2018! (10 years apart)

The Cycle degree wave 3 top in 2011 also matches the gold peak of 2011. The very first solar cycle peak topped in 2011 as well, so copper and the sun are related! The 2011 peak is also 31 years after the 1980 peaks of both gold and copper. Here is the real kicker, it could take copper and gold to hit a Supercycle degree wave 3 peak until 2041, plus or minus one year!

It could mean a long drawn out Gold bull market lasting until 2041, and end with a potential price peak of about $2225. It also means another Cycle degree 5th wave zigzag! Cycle degree wave 4 is far from over, as we may just finish part one this fall!

I checked the commercial reports and they are still net short copper, while the speculators are stuck in a bull trap, and are forced to sell. I bet there are a ton of sell stops below the 50-day MA and 200-day MA, as usual. I see 4 or 5, pretty bearish signals out there, which makes me very bearish on copper. Until at least all support is thrashed.

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VIX Daily Chart: All Gaps Closed!

I think this VIX has been in a long choppy decline, and just recently closed the two open gaps. Maybe we’ll get another low, but not a record new low. That January bottom should hold if the bull market in the VIX is going to perform for us.  The next ride up in the VIX should be bigger and better, but sold out if it makes a very vertical move.  Commercials are net long the VIX as the speculators are betting on the VIX short side.

They both can’t be right, and most always it is the speculators or the trend chasers that are in trouble. Any long positions in stocks would also crumble due to the long positions of  the VIX commercials.  Since all stops are closed, then we can look for  and find fresh gaps a bit easier

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Quick Amazon Stock Chart Review

When you see someone try to wave count Facebook in great detail, then  you will find someone with too much time on their hands.  I try to stay away from all single stock wave counts, but it’s nice to record a potential wave 3 top in Cycle degree. FB is done for, as far as I’m concerned,  as the age of the internet is in an, s curve plateau. Two trend lines can give us a clue how deep FB can crash in the impending Cycle degree bear market.  The standard correction for a big bear market could be a 70-80% retracement.

It’s the top trend line that is important as that shows a long steady climb. That top line is duplicated in parallel fashion and then dragged down to the bottom.  This points to the $100 price level.  Face Book is in such a bubble that it may burst and never rise again. FB will become an electronic burial ground for all the dying boomers as deleting your own account after you die is very hard todo.  Dead people do not pay  ad revenues the last time I checked, unless you become an AI vertual robot and live on forever.

Folks, we are coming into a time where all asset classes are going to have convulsions so large that “Buy&Hold” will no longer work for the next three years. There is a time to buy and there is a time to run to the hills and hunker down. Wait out the financial storm that will hit us, as this planet will be forced to de-leverage.

To show how expensive FB is to gold I have calculation when it was cheap at 100:1. Yes, with one ounce of gold you could buy 100 shares back in 2012. Now you can only buy 6.44 shares with one ounce of gold. This is the most extreme Gold/FB ratio I have ever recorded, and blows all previous cheap ratios out of the water.

As you can guess, I’m very bearish on the markets and FB is just another elephant in a china shop.  The Buy&Hold strategy is dead, for the next 3 years as even “value” investors are having a hard time in finding “value”.  Being bullish in the biggest bull market in history puts you inside the bubble. Bubble players don’t think they are in a bubble, so they will go down once the markets hit another iceberg.

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VIX Intraday Calm After The Storm?

In the last few days the markets suffered a bear attack send the VIX to new intraday record highs. Two of my unfilled gaps were  filled in a hurry, but we have two big open gaps below present prices. All the markets need now is a little effort by the attacking bulls and this VIX could drop like a rock filling the two gaps below.  Any gap has a 90% chance of getting filled, with the only question remaining is, “when”. Sometimes a gap will remain open for years (like gasoline futures) but eventually they will get filled.

There was nothing impulsive with this VIX run as these are typical diagonal wave structures. We are also one day away from a full moon, which can at times be very bullish for stocks. Maybe some calm will return before the next fear storm hits. Both gaps could get filled first, before another leg up in the fear gauge may happen.  The bottom gap would also be a great support area as VIX reversals can be pretty violent.  The vertcal move that the VIX did make should always be respected, as it is impossible for the masses to keep fear levels permanently elevated.

Diagonal wave structures dominate the entire VIX life cycle, just like they dominated and still dominate  the entire  Submillennium degree wave 3 still running today.

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