Copper has started a bearish phase in 2018 which at this point can still turn into a correction. The 2016 bottom could also be a temporary bottom so that the 2016-2018 bullish phase is nothing but a bear market rally.
We can see that copper has had some dynamic crashes in the past with the 2008 crash being one of the steepest I have seen. The 2009 bottom matches solar cycle 24 very well, with the 2011 peak matching solar cycle’s 24 first peak.
I think the ending of solar cycle 24 is drawing copper prices down and when solar cycle 25 arrives copper prices should start to crank up again.
My 2011 Cycle degree wave 3 peak is still valid and no amount of reviewing has forced me to change the 2011 peak.
Since 1980 copper has made some very violent moves which are pretty common in the commodities world. This has been true since the Little Ice Age bottom which I count as wave 2 in Supercycle degree. The little ice age ended in the early 1800s and “Global Warming” started to take hold as the solar cycles picked up in sunspot activity.
In 2000 solar cycle 23 peak turned copper upside down and send it soaring until the first 2011 peak of solar cycle 24. In early 2011 copper prices imploded once again which produced a pattern that needs more time to play out.
The commercials are net long but not by that much so flipping a coin on short term direction may work just as well. The early 2016 bottom produced what looks like a 5 wave impulse, but when you look at it with a daily chart they can count as a diagonal set of 5 waves.
Short term copper can produce more downside movement, but the electric car “Mania” has produce copper demand to a point where an electric car needs large amounts of copper to run. 1-2 Decades into the future I’m sure electric cars will go into the crushers and recycle all that copper they have been using.
There are no daily trading limits on most commodities so it is one of the main reasons why copper can make such extreme moves!
I think the impending start to solar cycle 25 could push copper prices to the upside which may still be 1-2 years away.
The link above shows that copper is called an “Energy Metal” as well, so copper is required for everything “Green”. Electric Fracking technology is coming so that alone can also increase the demand for copper.
I have no love for anything related to Facebook even though the majority have been pushing the stock higher. FB has now started to back off in price gains as the problems with FB are too many to address.
If it wasn’t for all the GAPs in the FB chart I would not post anything, but this chart looks like Swiss Cheese with any GAP always having a 90% chance of getting filled. The July 2018 GAP might never get closed no matter how much the Facebook bulls wish for it to happen.
In November/December 2018 we had a small double bottom followed by a big bounce that may all be just a big bear market rally. In order for this 2019 rally to be part of a bear market rally then eventually, FB has to crash below the 2018 low at the $123 price level.
I don’t have much of a Gold/FB ratio database set up but today we are sitting at about 6.84:1.
The VIX has traveled much deeper than what I was expecting. I’m looking for a bullish reversal which will spring the trap on the unsuspecting VIX bears. In the last month, the VIX bottomed 3 times which could be a signal that tells us that the VIX decline has had enough.
When the VIX moves it can be very violent as tons of buy stops will get hit until the 4th wave top. On this 90 day chart, the golden cross has just formed so a rally will stop the VIX from creating a death cross. You can call this bottom a double H&S pattern and even add the falling wedge for good luck.
I’m looking for a big bullish move with the VIX and soar well off the top of the chart.
The commercial hedgers are stacked to the long side by a ratio of about 2.4:1 and as usual, the speculators have taken the opposite position. Both can’t be right in their direction and violence will ensue (Increase in Volatility), once this skewed trade starts to unwind.
Last month Apple’s stock price finished to the upside. All the dovish news about rate increases taking a break was a major surprise to investors but I said this could happen many times before as T-Bonds are in a bull market. One thing that is hard to imagine is that Apple keeps on soaring if the DJIA or SP500 heads south. There is a huge probability that an expanded bottom has been formed which seldom ever hold.
I labeled about 5 gaps with a recent gap to the upside still being open. Short term this gap will get closed, with a much bigger gap still open at the $120-$130 price level. Jumping on the Apple bandwagon after a month of bullish action, is an emotional decision, thinking we are buying on the “Dips”. Of course, my bearish outlook can be wrong and for that to happen, we must see a correction form with “No” new record lows.
Just because an asset class goes up, does not mean it’s in a bull market. If market participants get fooled by a Minor degree rally then any Intermediate degree or Primary degree rally will really fool the majority. I would be a lot more bullish on Apple’s stock price if there were records of insiders buying their own shares back. I read one story that Al Gore was a buyer, but I have to hunt up the article to confirm it. I believe the board wants to kick Al Gore of the team. If and when this happens I will shed no tears for Al Gore to be removed from his position.
Even before this rally Apple’s stock price was not dirt cheap when we compared it to gold. Today this Gold/Apple ratio sits at 7.91:1 which is better than the extreme ratio of 5.24:1.
I think the Gold/Apple ratio should get closer to 10:1 or even 15:1 before it may be a longer-term hold.
With the new moon coming on Monday, it can provide an extra push if the reversal is near. I’m sure they will get their Facetime bug fixed, but it also goes to show how easy it is to hack into this digital world. The biggest threat is Artificial Intelligence, (AI) as dictators and communist countries use AI to brainwash and control them. If you think the movie “1984” is about dystopia, then what we have today is far more powerful and insidious.
The January 2019 VIX crash has now gone deeper than expected and when that happens an instant wave count review should be initiated. The VIX is now sitting on the 200-day MA line close to the $16 price level. Is the 200-day-MA going to give us some support? A small triple bottom is also developing along with the new moon on Monday, so this can provide an additional reason for a reversal. If we are lucky we may see some COT updates but I won’t know that until late today. Investors as a group, have now started to calm down like a herd of cattle would after being stampeded.
We may see a mini VIX rally up past $20 again as this can also work as an expanded pattern at the Minuette degree level. As we can see the VIX is littered with many spikes in both directions and I try to look for the longest spikes which tend to hold the longest before the next reversal. All the market bullish hype in the world will mean little when the VIX is ready to turn.
Last week Apple’s stock price recorded another bullish high and could still hit a price target of $160. The huge gap to the downside has now been filled! The question is, ” Is this rally just another bear rally or is it the real thing”?. I tend to believe that the rally that started in January, is part of an expanded 4th wave and one more move to the downside should eventually happen. If Apple turns down it may take all of February to accomplish, but when it does I will turn very bullish on Apple’s stock price once it hits my potential “A” wave in Primary degree.
The hedge funds saw this Apple crash coming and it takes only a few of them to unload billions of shares swamping buyers in the process. I’m an Apple product user but that doesn’t mean I’m permanently bullish. Earning are extremely easy to manipulate and Apple is as good as any other company that manipulates earnings. I would be far more bullish if insider buying news filled the financial news blogs, but that has not yet happened.
As more backlogged data comes out in the next few weeks, it could surprise many investors and set off another mini selling panic.
The Gold/Apple ratio is at 8.25:1 today which I still consider an expensive reading. The more shares we can buy with one Troy ounce of gold the better, but not until we establish a large database over some extreme cycles, will it make sense. The cheap Gold/Apple ratio was closer to 21:1, so we have a long way to go before that ever happens.
At this time my expanded top for Apple is a pattern I have to keep using until it no longer works. On the downward slope, I’m dealing with diagonal waves. Recently support for Apple failed but it failed with a big gap still open. From here on things can go wild if we run into a short 5th wave in Minute degree. This important gap also happened close to the Fibonacci number $144. Between $130-$120 we have another huge open gap that could get closed on this run. The wave count layout might take a month or so, but then Apple should rally along with the general markets.
Smart analysts are still shaking their heads why Warren Buffet was buying AAPL stock at world record highs. Warren Buffet is now deep underwater with his Apple shares and it will be interesting to hear if he starts to sell any of his Apple holdings.
With this huge price chop, one would figure that the Gold/Apple ratio has improved. At 9.13:1 it has, but not nearly enough to get excited about. One extreme “cheap” Gold/Apple ratio is 21:1. I don’t think we will see the 21:1 ratio on this trip but I sure would like to see more than this recent 9.13:1 ratio we now have.
The VIX has so far made a nice decline that still looks very corrective and may have hit a low point this morning. Patterns are starting to overlap again which is pretty normal in diagonal wave structures. Either way, the VIX bull party is far from finished, as we should see another record high develop in the next 3-5 weeks. Any impending wave 3-4 in Minor degree is going to give us a problem as a triangle could develop. A triangle inside a diagonal wave structure can be a real nightmare to sort out so we have to give it time to work through that part of the VIX correction.
One more low could happen but that should be cleaned up by the end of the week.
Commercial hedgers are already building short positions while the trend chasers are still net long. Once any Minor degree 5 waves are starting to complete then I will turn very bullish on stocks. This may still take a month or so with the exact time always being a challenge. March is a very popular month for turnings along with October as they reflect the yearly cycles.
Investors may stuff more money into funds in January to take advantage of any taxes they may want to avoid. Its when they stop, that the markets can crash again.
I’m a big fan of westerns and there is no difference in riding a wild stagecoach than riding a Bandwagon that is still empty at this point. Once more people jump on this asset class is going to get over-loaded and then become prone to a crash. If I’m right we still have a long way before the stage fills up and the horses get tired. HDGE is going to meet resistance but eventually leave that in the dust. This run is far from finished as investors are in for a rough ride to put it mildly. Just like with other indices I see an expanded pattern, so a nice set of 5 waves in Minor degree should fully develop counting from the September 2018 bottom.
Readers may not understand any analysis done with the EWP, but wave counts that do not follow a strict sequence will never work. Not until I switched over to Cycle degree specifications about 5 years ago did the EWP start to make sense to me. One of these special or complex corrections of an expanded pattern can also happen with single stocks. Of course, if we are not aware, or not looking for expanded patterns, our wave counts will be all over the place on the charts.
Many think that the market we are in is just a correction, but this is very misleading at best. The smartphone era is dying and saturated. Tim Cook is a late Boomer and still has many good years to go, but the older any CEO gets the less innovation and risk-taking the company takes.
With a big Apple price drop already behind us, you would figure that the Gold/AAPL ratio would get better.
I had one expensive reading of 5.27:1 on October 4th and our recent reading is 7.50:1. This is a bit better but nothing to scream out across the rooftops for.
Cheap would get us closer to a 21:1 ratio so we have a long way to go before that ever happens. I will have to adjust my smaller degree wave counts and even if my expanded top is not “real” the big correction might end up looking like a zigzag!
The bullish action of the VIX tells us that fear is present in the markets and at this time I believe the VIX has far more room to move up. A few big gaps opened up in December which were quickly filled or closed off.
Not until I can count out 5 waves up in Minute degree, will we get close to another correction in the VIX. The little H&S patterns being setup also adds to the VIX bullish picture. A bullish VIX means bearish stocks so investors are not getting any Santa gifts just yet. I don’t have sympathy for investors that are still trying to milk out gains at an extreme record high. It’s like playing with a hot potato. If the VIX breaks out to a new record high this week remains to be seen, as the odds of a sustained VIX decline are getting less and less. It may take the rest of the week but the VIX should charge to new record highs.
Since about 2013, I became convinced that the basic Elliott Wave Principle is just one big impulse. The idealized chart above has a wave zero start with the ending of the Little Ice Age. Yes, global cooling killed the Medieval warm period but picking an exact date is impossible as the LIA took a few hundred years along the bottom. 1500-1800 could have been the worst of it as millions of people succumbed to malnutrition and disease.
During that time British markets carried on into North America as trade flourished. I have another idealized chart made for commodities as this chart changed into an Impulse during the Roaring 1920s.
The markets in the real world are never this steep, but it’s one of the ways to fit it on a large format paper 24 inches wide. I work connecting all Cycle degree points together first, and the arrow points to the January Cycle degree peak.
Idealized charts work like blueprints and when we try to build the Elliott Wave Tower Of Babel, without looking at the blueprints, then we are guaranteed that any wave count will always fool us and the Elliott Wave Tower Of Babel will come falling down.
Tesla has been defying gravity far too long. It seems to be building a very flat top squeezed by a rising bottom which looks like a wedge to me. Of course, if you are the bullish person you’re not going to be looking for any bearish signals. TSLA has defied the bears as well, but Elon Musk made the bear’s life miserable during the entire time.
I have an open or uncapped 5th wave so technically I don’t know what wave count is next.
I do, but the only reason this 5th wave is uncapped is that I had no more editing room. I believe that TSLA has or still has to hit a Cycle degree wave 3 peak but I need more evidence in the short-term to confirm it. Tesla is all about commodities, so it stands to reason for all the choppy wave structures. In the future, I will re-work the last 2-3 years in different ways to eliminate any potential expanded top. No expanded top can mean a single zigzag while an expanded top is instantly a flat.
4 or 5 times Tesla tried to breakout and push higher, bit so far it has failed.
My Gold/TSLA database is not that large, as I have to build it from scratch. Today this ratio sits at 3.48:1 which is extreme when we use gold as money. Most of 2018 the Gold/TSLA has been averaging between 3-5:1 which looks like TSLA has been hitting a ratio brick wall.
The cheap range of the Gold/TSLA ratio is between 60-70:1 so we have a longway to go before TSLA becomes cheap again.
I’m sure many investors are still “High” on marijuana stocks but I think reality may be setting in for those that didn’t expect pot stocks to crash. I knew they would crash as as this new industry turn into a mania instantly. This ETF is showing the way and today HMMJ has created another spike to the downside. A correction may come but this market decline is far from over. I think the industry also has it shares of crooks as they just love to take advantage of the emotion. Many big companies have also crashed and the only people that made any money are the ones that participated in any of the IPOs. I will never turn bullish on this sector until all the ETFs and stocks have been crushed, and even then there is no guarantee they will go anywhere.
The wave count is more like a diagonal which is normal for anything commodities related but they are a bit smoother set of waves. Sure, the price has come down to the point where the Gold/HMMJ ratio is at about 80:1. The most expensive Gold/HMMJ ratio at one point was 49:1 in September 2018.
The dirt cheap ratio was 150:1 so we have a long way to go before this ETF turns real cheap. It may never return to the 150:1 ratio but we may catch it if it keeps heading into a ratio price brick wall.
I don’t have the time or don’t want to spend the time, tracking this ratio as I have a data base of over 28 ratios I’m already tracking. I updated most of them today while US markets were closed.
The potential start of a 5 wave run in Minor degree would match the stock markets wave count as well. I doubt that this will finish this year as it could stretch into early spring 2019.
I think many companies will disappear as margins are going to be razor thin with huge start-up costs involved as well. Then the biggest con of all is that there is a shortage of pot! Yeah right! The dispensaries in Vancouver never shut down. They’ve had their licenses for a few years already and never missed a beat waiting for the rest of Canada to wake up.
If the legal markets can’t supply inventory just yet, then the black market will always come to the rescue.
Most analysts ignore the VIX, and investors ignore the VIX even more. When the VIX soars, you know that the stock market will plunge. In January 2018 the VIX bottomed trapping all the VIX short players. This caused the spike up to the 50 price level which is an illusion. When I switch to line mode the 37 price level is the max. For all of 2018, the VIX has been in a bull market, and chances are good we will never see a new record low for many years. Stock euphoria and complacency would have to return in order for another huge leg up to happen in stock markets.
It’s next to impossible to be super bearish with the VIX as without fanfare the VIX has created the Golden Cross with this daily chart. The VIX is built with SP500 options and is the main reason why the VIX is this choppy. SP500 investors are walking into a bull trap while VIX bears are in a bear trap. The VIX would have to drop for weeks (50 days ?)before another VIX Death Cross can happen.
Right now the VIX is sitting on the 200-day MA and it created a couple of gaps on the way down. Those gaps will get filled on the way up as fear will return for investors? The Fed created a nice stock market bull trap and the VIX is the big indicator where we can watch it happen. Switch this chart to weekly settings and you will see that the Golden Cross just happened in November. These are very bullish long-term VIX indicators and most of the world ignores them.
It may take the rest of the week, but some more downside can happen, after which I expect a full reversal and a new record high for the VIX.
Stocks soared in a wave 2 in Minor degree yesterday, as the VIX crashed in wave 2 in Minor degree. Once these set of 5 waves start to come to an end then chances are very good, I will turn into a stock bull as we would be at my VIX “A” wave peak in Primary degree. “A” wave bottoms in stocks are Elliott wave “buy” signals, escpecially if they are Primary degree “A” waves.
If you want to witness wild diagonal waves then the VIX will give them all to you. Needless to say, this makes wave counting the VIX all the more challenging. The VIX also has prime examples of vertical spikes in both directions. I show a pattern that sure looks like it is still correcting with another zigzag. I would love to see the VIX crash and take out that November low. If the VIX still is this bearish, then stocks should remain bullish in the short term.
The commercial hedgers are net short the VIX so that doesn’t bode well for an instant stock market bearish decline. Mind you I have seen commercial traders positions change in rapid fashion and we won’t know that until every Friday afternoon. The Death Cross has been triggered but at these intraday levels, I don’t find them all that useful.
If the November rally is a bear market rally then this has to get confirmed by completely retracing my “A” wave bottom in Minute degree. This would be below the 16.09 price level.
This is for the people that must have trend lines, so I added a few lines that are important from my perspective. Most of the time I draw all these lines offline, but I don’t always publish them. I went back to the 2015-2016 bull market which is where most indices also corrected with the same wave count. The news that Apple and Amazon are hooking up destroyed this stock as all the mall stores will lose customers.
If Apple retraced back down to the bottom bullish trendline, then this would only get us closer to a single Primary degree bottom. Apple stock imploding from the Fibonacci $233 price level is not a surprise, as stocks also implode from the $55 Fibonacci price levels.
Every Fibonacci price drop is a 61% crash which we might get two of them. The entire Apple wave count has always displayed diagonal wave structures, this is why I have no Primary degree wave 5 peak labeled. It’s a Primary degree “C” wave.
Without a doubt, this Apple stock was in a mania blow-off in Cycle degree. Any mania does not end with an 18 or 20% correction, as most of the time markets fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. That would get us closer to that $89 price level.
Apple was in a Cycle degree peak so, at a minimum, we have to see another Cycle degree bottom. 3 waves in Primary degree is what I will be looking for, which could also take until 2022 to play out.
Investors are going to learn what the real price value of Apple’s stock is in the next few years.
There is also a minimum of 3 gaps still open below present prices and I bet at least two of them will get filled.
The most extreme Gold/Apple ratio registered at about 5.27:1 on September 10th. It has been hitting the ratio brick wall and has now started to spread again. Still at a 6.34:1 ratio this morning, Apple stock is still extremely expensive to the price of gold. Cheap may come closer to the 21:1 range but that is only a reference. The gold ratio price brick wall would get hit first.
Some will never believe that Apple stock can even crash, but the size of this Apple bear market all depends on what degree this 2018 mania peak was!
Smart investing is all about being in the right place at the right time, so do you think TLRY was a good buy when it hit $300? This move is all about FOMO and it has nothing to do with fundamentals. Who in their right mind would buy into a vertical move like this? Who was that greatest fool, thinking that the $300 price is a good deal?
The market punished these fools, with close to a 70% price crash below the $90 price level. My main interest is about the mania that has been surrounding a new industry, but some of these investors could have been sampling the product when they hit the “Buy” button when TLRY hit $300.
I do not give any investment advice on any single stocks that I post, and I have no holdings in pot-related companies at this time. I’ve had people ask me if it’s time to invest in pot stocks, and my simple answer is in the form of a question, “Do you have a trading account or investment account open”? The answer is usally, “No”. This just shows how insane any mania can get when people what to invest, that have never bought or sold any stock in their life!
I guess TLRY is in a bear market when it hit a 70% decline. Stories about pot shortages did not happen in Vancouver. Most of those dispenseries never missed a beat as they were open under municiple by-laws, not federal laws.
I Looked through the COT Reports and this Bloomberg report does “not” look good for the so-called commodity bull market that the talking heads keep telling us about. Commercial hedgers increased their net short positions by 11,964 contracts and removed 700 contracts from their long positions. This shows the hedgers closest to the industry having a very bearish outlook which will not change until these numbers start to shift the other way again.
When you look at the non-commercial reports they are net long by a wide margin. Both parties can’t be right and the great majority of the time the speculators always get into a trap of some type or another!
Even silver, gold, platinum, palladium, all showed increases in commercial short positions. None of the readings I looked at support a potential big bull market reversal in the works. All this just confirms the idea not to waste my time, chasing bullish wave counts at this time.
Copper was the exception, but that was not a big shift to long positions. Even the commercials in the USD COT report took some short positions away, but they still have a large net short position to fight with.
With the stock market being bullish after the midterm elections, then technically the VIX should drop like a rock. It did drop like a rock but left an open gap in its wake. In the short term, the VIX could soar, closing off the gap but then resume another leg down. This leg down is just part of a correction which could end up being another zigzag as well. The stock bulls came out forecasting another huge move to the upside, but I don’t see it that way at this time. The VIX had its low in January 2018 at the $9 price level, so the VIX has been in a bull market since then.
The midterm elections went about as expected with the Republicans losing ground. It will definitely make it harder for President Trump to push through any agendas he has. In the end, if we relied on politics and fear to make investment decisions, then chances are good those decisions will not work out.
Apple investors are getting hammered including Warren Buffet. Warren Buffet has the biggest stake ever in Apple. I cannot see the logic of buying anything at extreme record highs but rich people are the only ones that can waste their money buying high price stocks. It’s all the other investors that are going to get sucked into thinking that Apple stock is still going to the moon.
Warren Buffet is buying his own stock back as well. If $4 billion is not enough, then just follow this saga as the world is slowing down and heading into another recession. Buffet bought IBM the same way, and look how that turned out. In recent months the Gold/Apple ratio has been the most expensive around the 8:1 ratio and today it sits at 6.0:1 about the same it was back in August 2018. A cheap Gold/Apple ratio is about 21:1, which may never get hit again but when any ratio starts to hit a price brick wall, then this is a sign of a major top. I think Apple is also at a Cycle degree wave 3 peak and they do not correct in just a few months as it could take years for this impending bear market to play out.
There is no other way of describing the legalization of marijuana use in Canada. This marijuana mania is no different than what the bitcoin mania was a few years ago. They laughed at me we I mentioned that TGOD could fall below $5, well how does $3.00 work for? I actually shorted this stock several times and made a little money doing it, but I still would not touch any of these stocks, as TGOD could disappear as many of these producers would have to merge. Size matters as I think the US-based companies are already taking over and could gobble up any other grower.
I’m sure you have heard about the great marijuana shortage up here and some shops selling out. Well, any shortage can be fixed in a month, just for every pot smoker in Canada, quit for a whole month. How long do you you think it would take them to fill all the shelves to the rafters! Marijuana is a consumer good, so it’s subject to the whims of the age group.
I’m kidding about this, as we all know that there wouldn’t be any takers in Canada!
I put up TGOD as just another inverted zigzag with an “X” wave. We could get another zigzag bull market at a later date. I do not spend any time on the fundamentals of most companies, and doing your own research is critical. I have no time and no interest in spending weeks trying to justify any fundamental homework! Even the Warrant that goes with TGOD retraced its entire bullish cycle.
The stock that investors once loved has now crashed since the August 2018 peak. There may be an expanded pattern with this top, but for now, I will leave it out for now but a 5 wave sequence has started, which would be 5 waves down in Minor degree. I will have to adjust later but in the end, this AMZN crash is far from over. Over $119 billion has gone up in smoke, chopping the elephant down in size a bit. Buying on the “Dip”? Ok, that sounds like fun! AMZN could get cut in 1/2 again before any real bottom may present itself. The world is slowing down as a potential recession is heading our way. We might not see a large counter-rally until the media pumps out the bearish news. This could all remain bearish for the rest of the year, but eventually, we should also get a Primary degree counter rally within the next 4 years. The trend is obviously down as buyers are no longer in love with Amazon.
This is not some little correction in a bull market but it is the start of a huge bear market that only a few have been warning us about. If anything then AMZN might become a “Buy”, once Solar Cycle #25 has arrived. AMZN sure charged up with Solar Cycle #24, so I expect the same to happen again.
PlAT is just an index of Platinum related stocks and it seemed to have peaked in 2007 and then followed all other indices down as well. There is no way I can put a wave count to this, but we could be at the point where Cycle degree wave 4 has already bottomed. We may still be in a fake rally but longer term I’m very bullish. Was the crash a human-caused crash, or just another flash crash?
This is a chart with weekly settings and the crash shows up as a single drop. Platinum is the third highest traded metal after gold and silver, but the media does little to report on platinum.
I only wanted to post this ugly looking crash once, but I will post a little more with the ETF that tracks platinum as a metal. (PPLT)
When we take this same chart and switch it to a monthly setting, then that solid line you see disappears and we are left with a massive gap!
I thought I would post some stats for Elliott Wave 5.0. The above chart just shows all the sources of search engine stats with Google leading the way by a wide margin. These are mostly organic search hit results, with the bottom darker lines created by all other search engines. I was very happy once my average page views started to hit 2000 pages viewed per day. There are dramatic spikes and huge drops as well but in the end, the trend is generally still up.
This screen clip was taken early in the morning which shows 1495 pages viewed already, so today should be another good day. Yesterday well over 4100 pages very viewed in one 24 hour time period. This internal stat counter also shows 79,925 pages viewed in one month and we still have 3 days to go. Using rough calculations I figured that this blog could hit a million page views by the end of the year, but this has been achieved in October already. One day, 3000 pages viewed per month may become normal and I would be very happy if those kinds of numbers eventually materialized consistantly.
If readers like they can conduct a search in any search engine using, “Elliott Wave 5.0 Reboot”, with large image settings. This will ring up many of my charts on the first page or so. I know most all my wave counts are floating around the internet but it may be impossible to find all of them.
As nice as some of these numbers sound, there is no critical mass here. In the last three years, not a single wave analyst has come forward that wants to keep Cycle degree wave analysis alive. I have had some financial support from a few dedicated fans, but costs in keeping this site running are not getting any cheaper.
One would guess that last weeks bullish action in gold will keep right on going, but the commercial hedgers don’t see it that way as they all added short positions last week. Even the Palladium hedgers made bearish bets last week with Platinum starting to be the exception.
I believe Platinum will eventually turn very bullish for a long-term bullish move, but any short-term downside can still happen.
Commercials are also building a large net short position in the US dollar, which would be very bullish for gold. 5 bearish COT reports may have more power over a single Currency at least in the short term. In typical fashion the speculators chased the golden bull as a run to safe-haven seems to be front and center. In the end, all emotional bullish moves come to an end as speculators always get into one trap or another.
Some science sites are already suggesting the Solar Cycle 25 is already here, but I doubt that very much. Spaceweather.com did a very good job of tracking the arrival of Solar Cycle 24 and I think they are doing just as good of a job this time. The total spotless days in the year are still a long way away, which might give us an entire year with 70% of sun activity being blank! This happened in December of 2008, and by March of 2009 the world stock markets turned and the great recession started to come to an end.
If you look at the first solar peak in 2011, this matches the gold price peak so well, I choked when I first saw it. All of the commodities started to take hits from the 2011 peak, so to say that the sun has no impact on earthlings, is a silly idea at best. Even climate change scientists (IPPC Report) recently declared that earth is going to meltdown if we don’t stop pushing CO2 into the atmosphere. It’s the end of the world if we don’t. Fear mongering is what the IPPC does best so to fight this fear observe the turning your self in the next few years.
When sunspot activity is low it allows extra space radiation to hit the earth which Spaceweather has been tracking with science students in California and other areas of the USA. They also track the radiation for flyers as the increased space radiation can produce problems during flights over the north pole. The weekly weather balloon readings of the space radiation reports will show decreasing radiation numbers after Solar Cycle 25 arrives. I’m no solar scientist but I have been tracking solar cycles since before 2000! The EWP books contain stock market and solar cycle connections and it is obvious to me how the bear market in stocks stopped, and a new bullish phase started.
Don’t you just love that, “You are here” arrow, so I thought I would add this chart just in case we are lost! The secondary peak in Solar Cycle 24 was a bit higher but that peak matches my wave 3-4 correction in Intermediate degree. Solar Cycle 24 is also one of the smallest since the early 1900’s, and Solar Cycle 25 could be smaller yet. My bet is that Solar Cycle 25 could end up being just a bit taller than Solar Cycle 24, which remains to be seen. Solar activity shows Elliott Wave patterns all the time as the 2014 peak sure fits an expanded top! From the 2009 bottom the solar cycle also produced very nice 5 wave runs, but on the downside, they make 3 wave counter-rallies, just like any bear market rally in the stock markets.
When I look at this VIX monthly chart it is impossible to count each little wave as there are no impulse waves to count. VIX and any commodities belong in the diagonal world where all the Elliott Wave impulse rules are broken. This is how options also behave because the VIX is built on using SP500 options. Each spike to the upside represented a “Buy” signal in stocks, but we are nowhere near that point at this time.
The VIX should eventually see that $90 peak again but not before any potential “A” wave in Primary degree arrives. Any move above those $50 spikes, would start to get us close. Any “B” wave top in the VIX would be a stock market buy signal. Watching the VIX is about as exciting as watching paint dry, so not to many analysts even give the VIX any attention.
The VIX is an emotional indicator, which is a “fundamental indicator” which can be used for the EWP.
The commercial hedgers are still net long, but it is starting to shift. When the commercials have built large net short VIX positions, then the end of the VIX bull run would be getting close.
That $9 base is huge so at some future extreme when the VIX hits $9, you know it’s high time to run to cash.
This week is when the law comes down to legalize marijuana in Canada. We keep hearing about a shortage of marijuana, but this is all about “legal” pot shortages as there are no shortages of any pot on the street.
If the legal stuff has to catch-up in supply then how can all the retail dispensaries create any earnings? When the market realizes this, there could be a huge sell-off and this ETF would plunge.
Sure, there are lots of winner stocks but there are just as many losers.
Not until I see a clear correction from last months record high, will I turn bullish on any marijuana-related ETF.
There will be tax (GST ?) and a (SIN) tax as well, so this could dramatically change the positive outlook that the media is telling us.
Any move below $13 would sure help to confirm my bearish case, and sometime in the next few weeks, we should get a reaction?