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Category Archives: Misc.

HMMJ Bear Market Update

This HMMJ chart is still the best ETF to track the legal marijuana industry.   Since it is so new there really is no track record we can rely on. My wave positions could be so far off, even though we could be heading down to a flat bearish ending. My bottom trend line may not even hold, as we are close to a 75-150-day MA Death Cross in HMMJ as well.

 

Hits: 3

TSLA Record High Update

This may be my last posting regarding Tesla as it may delist and go private. SpaceX is already private and TSLA may soon join SpaceX. The short players have been getting burned as close to 31% of the entire TSLA float has been shorted. Investopedia is an excellent site to get information about any market meanings and technical indicators.

They do a big spread about TSLA short players and how they get squeezed. Still TSLA is also approaching a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, but we may never find out if we can’t get private price charts on TSLA. Many companies have delisted in the past so it’s not that uncommon.

The Gold/Tsla ratio is a bit better at 3.4:1, down from an extreme of 1.13:1. I’m sure TSLA stock will not hold up, and sooner or later it will take out my 4th wave support at the $140 price level.

Hits: 4

August Slow Down Notice.

 

My updates could be erratic and even slow down a bit for August, as I take more frequent downtime in August as the weather permits.  Usually, it’s pretty slow in the summer months, and I see no major changes we have to watch out for, until the market bears get front page coverage.  I have an average of about 2000 pages read per month and expect to hit 1 Million pages read sometime in the fall. 

So, I would like to give readers a big “Thanks” as this is the only blog that is dedicated to Cycle degree wave analysis! 

 

Hits: 4

VIX Daily Chart: VIX Bear Trap Review!

The amount of time the VIX has been correcting just about puts it into an Intermediate degree position. It’s still a VIX bear trap any which way you want to look at it, as it is only a matter of time before the fear gauge starts to crank up again. The Death Cross finished about a month ago but the Golden Cross will still happen. The commercials are net long while those hedge funds or speculators are betting with net short positions. One group is always wrong and it sure isn’t the commercials. Combine that with a wedge and you have a deadly chance of the VIX exploding to new record highs by the end of this year.

Fear is going to come back regardless, after which the commercials will be turn net short again. Deflation is the main threat as we come of the most inflated asset world in history.  Another quick flash to the downside can still happen, so we have to be aware of that.

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Facebook Is Not Going To The moon!

Just in case FB investors don’t know, but Facebook is doomed just like all other Nasdaq related stocks. Facebook is running out of people as even the younger crowd is bored with it. After all how many cat and dog tricks are there? This rally that could be just finishing is just another bearish rally, but a small one to boot. If such a small counter rally can get the FB bulls all excited again, then they are pretty easy to fool on any counter rally of larger degree levels. Still, even if I had the available cash I personally would not short FB, Apple or any other popular stock, that many are also trying to short. TSLA also has an open gap, below present prices.

Elon Musk thinks he is bigger than the entire market, as he is constantly fighting the TSLA bears with his own stock purchases.

 

Hits: 4

Apple: Another Price Peak?

This morning Apple hit another price peak before it reversed. Any new record high could be the last record high that may take decades before it is ever achieved again. Warren Buffet is sitting on a big pile of cash, and that alone should be a warning that stock market investors should be building up cash positions. Just about every tech titan have massive cash positions, so they are already to buy low once the opportunity arises again. The peak seems to be $209.50 so far and Apple would have to crash to $190 to close off this huge gap. By any metric you want to use all the markets are in the biggest inflated stock market in history and when it gets serious in correcting, prices will head south.

Even the Warren Buffet indicator is flashing serious downside warnings as it shows extreme valuations. The Gold/Apple ratio also created a new record high at 5.84:1 this morning so.  The lower the price of gold goes and Apple does not follow, then this Gold/Apple ratio will only get worse.

I’m sure you are reading about all the share buy back programs being implimented, with Apple being no exception. I think company initiated buyback programs rips off all those rich investors as it is a clear signal that they can waste their money buying their own shares back at world record highs.  All their trying to do is manipulate their own stocks higher to appease rich investors.  The amount of money big corporations spend to prop up their share price, Apple alone could have launched a mission to mars many times over, and even stop of on Titian for a little sidetrip. 🙂 Hey, I would love to see that Apple Logo on a big Falcon 9 heavy rocket.

When high tech companies start paying dividends, then this company is signaling that, “Hey we got so much money we don’t know what to do with our cash”! So they give cash away to investors, who do and have done absolutely “nothing” to enhance the company itself.  Did investors work on the production line? No, they are leaches and are just along for the ride. If investors ride along with a trillion dollar company, then how much will they lose once Apple stock crashes by 70%?

Running with the bulls is dangerous, as it takes nothing to get trampled to death by the herd!

High inflated stock prices, ridiculous high real estate prices is not good for anyone escpecially for the younger generations. 2-3 years from now I’m sure we will have a new reality that no one expects today. Deflation is the real threat to investors and the Fed is fighting the very same inflation that they created in the first place.

Hits: 4

The Warren Buffet Indicator: Pain Awaits For Investors!

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-favorite-metric-suggests-some-serious-pain-awaits-investors-2018-08-06

 

I think this MarketWatch post says it all! Combine that with the Death Crosses on just about every asset class, and we have the set-up for a serious crash going into the fall.

Hits: 8

BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cycle Degree Peak 2007-2018 Review

 

If Warren Buffet keeps buying blue chip stocks then I would say he just about owns the DJIA with all his holdings. He bought into many stocks at record highs, with Apple being one of the biggest buys at record highs. Invest with the herd and you die by the herd, so I fully expect BRK.A to crash right along with all other indices around the world. The world is going into a major deflationary crash, which even Warren Buffet is powerless to stop. It will not surprise me to eventually see BRK below the $100,000 price level.

That is only the middle of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree as sometimes they push even lower, like the markets did in the 2009 bottom. Only the rich can play this game as the rich own 80% of the markets. Real Estate prices around the world are crashing already, as the rich can no longer afford to hang on to investment properties where prices  are falling faster than leaves of a maple tree in the fall!  Top smart money mangers have already sent letters to thier clients warning them. My friends and family members will watch it on the 6’oclock news this fall.

It is the world fertility crash that is going to completley change this world to a deflationary world. Our dying boomer generation are permanent sellers of real estate and they may even have several or more empty homes to get rid off.  For those than can wait 3 years or so, they will see a different stock, gold and housing landscape, from anything imaginable today.

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Real Estate: The Biggest World Bubble In History Review!

In Toronto the real estate bubble has already burst and will decline for the next 3 years or even longer. Deflation is the real threat as the world fertility crash intensifies. I have family members that are going to get very hurt hanging onto extra homes as investments, or they hope to flip them. By that time listings will explode and prices will start to crash faster than you can sign a mortgage.  Home investors do not realize that they are playing a severe leveraged game that even a futures traders would not do, yet it’s normal for the public to leverage themselves to the max!

Our Vancouver scene is a bit different, but it has developped a flat top which will never hold. Now look at the 2009 dip when real estate also crashed, to say it can’t happen again is serious mistake. You can’t sell a home at the speed of a mouse click, so there is no liquidity in the housing market. Buyers are refusing to show up just like in the 1926 Florida crash.  I’m sure that any young couple that waits for 3 years or so will see this inflated world present, a totally different picture.

There are about 18 million empty homes in the USA and about 8 million empty homes in Japan. Toronto seems to have 99,000 empty homes, with BC having less. Investors will run to the exits when they panic and this deflationary crash is just getting started.

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Apple 10 Day Mother Of All Gaps!

About the only “FAANG” stock to still take a hit is Apple. Every hedge fund loves this stock and Warren Buffet owns billions of shares. The huge open gap to the upside is more like an exhaustion gap, and it will get filled again. Facebooks gap may never get closed as these growth stories do come to screeching halts and even disappear!

Yes, I’m very bearish on all asset classes except for the US dollar. The world investors are sitting on a Death Cross that they know little about, and they may wake up once the stock markets crash right along with gold.  I keep gold ratios on about 10-15 asset classes which are all in-house indicators that tell me when any asset class is out line, to the cash price of gold. This Gold/Apple ratio now sits at a ratio of 6:1 the most expensive reading in my records. For the last 2 months it’s been under 7:1, so that tells me the Gold/Apple ratio is hitting a brick wall!  Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes and Apple is no different.

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News Flash! Gold Bear Spotted!

If you ever want to see a visualization of  our present gold bear about to attack, then this is it! He has his sights on the fish, which represents our present day gold investors. I’m sure there are many gold bugs that the salmon has been eating so this gold bear gets an appetizer to boot.  One slash with his right claws, into his mouth and this fishes head is chopped off!

If you are not a contrarian or take a contrary outlook in the gold market, then you will become a victim just like the fish!

 

Hits: 8

It’s Going To Be A Hot One!

 

Sanatana “Smooth”

For the next three days, this screenshot from our Surrey area shows the highest temperature for the entire year. Usually we get our warmest weather in July  and so far It has not disappointed me. I may take a break from publishing and lighten up in the postings, until Monday.

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Mark Zuckerberg’s Flash Crash And $16.8 Billion Wipe out

Facebook

What you see all happened close to the end of the day. This flash crash will not show up until when trading begins. FB crashed all the way down to just below $195 and then soared right back up to the 217.50 close this Wednesday. This was strictly computer generated as no human can react this fast. If there were humans invoved then it would be choppy as hell, or we can actually see some waves. I will add to this in the next few days, but my last top posting was on June 30, 2018 when FB was about $200. FB traveled an additional $18 before this sudden flash crash happened. At a bull market top this is not a good sign as billions of investor money also when up in smoke like Mark Zugerburg’s $16.8 billion did. Investors are going to start thinking twice if this stock is worth holding.

This is another reason why I trade and don’t invest, because the smart traders that had puts out on FB turned out to be big winners!

Hits: 9

Amazon When will It Crash And Burn?

A person can waste a lot of time and money trying to short Amazon as it just refuses to die. It will never stay up as we are going into a deflationary crash the likes we haven’t see since the 2008 crash. I would be going for a Cycle degree wave three top in Amazon as well.  It does not take rocket science to know what Amazon sells is commodaty related and depends entirely on the consumer keeping up their spending habits . Shop till you drop seems to the magic word for AMZN.

At $1858 as the top so far, Amazon would have to drop like a rock. Any larger drop would sign it’s death warrnt!  Look at the gap at $1000 so that be one small area for a bounce.

The gold/Amzn ratio also hit its highest today with a 1.49:1 ratio. The most expensive all year so far.

Hits: 5

West Coast Border Gold Home Page And App!

Border Gold Home Page

For those that want to sync up with the source of gold retail and spot prices, then get the two following page and one app onto your smart phone home screen.

 

I’m getting all my friends to add these two sites to their front page and below is a screen shot from their app, mostly in spot prices.

I’m getting a few to sync up but if you want to see a gold crash in action then we may as well stare at the screen on our smart phones. All gold has to do is cross this $1047 price level which confirms that our present rally was nothing but another bull trap! The entire world is going to watch which comes in first, $1400 gold or $1047 gold!

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Crashing Lumber Prices Update

The last time I was calling for a top in lumber prices it was starting to form that, now obvious spike, that we still can see. These spikes show up as thin hairs in candlestick, and I decided pretty early on, that I didn’t want to count  hairs for the rest of my life. Imagine me trying to make a living counting hairs, yet the entire world uses candlestick constantly.  The entire world can’t make that single click to dump candlestick when producing positions in commodities.  I will not post intraday charts on lumber, as I don’t have the time, and will not fill out every little wiggle that we might come across to entertain my readers.

It is very important to track lumber as I see it as being the canary in a coal mine, to what is going  to happen across the entire real-estate world. I believe that the Cycle degree wave 3 position is good, and that we could be at a position where lumber prices could be subdued for many decades to come. It has to do with the world fertility rate implosion, that is going to have huge implications on the prices of all commodities including precious metals of all types. They are all sitting on Death Crosses, and we can see that lumber  has rolled over and will slice that 200-day MA creating the Death Cross at the same time. This is a Cycle degree crash and we could be heading for a bear market that will kill many jobs, that may never come back!

Been there done that folks, as we are facing the same situation that happen when I was working in the forest industry, when gold crashed in 1980. My buddy still works in the same sawmill when I joined them as my plant was toast a long time ago by then. We hope to have a bigger meeting with more of his co-workers sometime, but after they meet me, they may never talk to me again.  Gold bugs tend to get pretty agitated when you tell them that gold is going to crash below $800. I like watching them squirm when I say the $700-$800 gold is real support, not that unstable $1050 price level, that the entire gold investing community thinks is a base. The gold boom is over, and it was finished in 2011 as that was a 30 year gold mania top, that will not happen again until 2041 or Supercycle degree peaks.

At this stage of the game it looks like so many asset classes are sitting on Death Cross, that I have to shake my head in disbelieve thinking that this can’t happen.

I have been showing another friend who has lost millions and made millions, and I showed him my gold scenario, and so far he has directly told me that he agrees with the impending gold crash. This person is the only person that has seen my charts in great detail in the last decade as we are both traders at heart. Some of my old bosses turned to futures trading once they retired as well.

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Copper Another Death Cross In Waiting!

Every commodity I check and apply the 50-day  200-day MA to, I get the same reading. Copper has had one Death Cross, a small Golden Cross and now is set to created another Death Cross in the near future. The [A] wave back in 1980, add 30 years to that and we get 2011 after which copper also imploded!  Add 30 years plus or minus 1 year and we get 2041 which would be a Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. 2071 will get commodities to Grand Supercycle degree top

Of course investors are oblivious to this and refuse to call the Death Cross anything important. Well folks, Cycle degree Elliott wave will eat gold bug investors for breakfast if they think it’s a good time to invest in gold. I have added some trend lines we could catch the bottom of an “A”wave in Primary degree as well. How tall that “B” will be is uncertain, except it cannot go to new record highs if a zigzag will happen. When commodities correct they come down with a “thud” not on some soft landing like gold and copper has made. Does 2008 look like a “thud” to you! It sure was but that was a flat crash. 3-3-5 A flat disguised as a zigzag.

From the [B} wave bottom in 2001 and to the “C” wave bull market tops has just about formed a perfect impulse with a huge 5th wave extension. The world is going into a deflationary crash and no little $1050 will hold it back.  That long spike you see on the chart 4th wave bottom has a huge spike to the downside and it is also a signal to close off shorts.  Now the Death Cross is just ready to touch and the rest will be history.

I also have been taking the Market Vane report for a month or so, but I stayed mum on it as it is another report that should confirm my suspicion. How it works,it only tracks the bullish amount in the markets. The less bulls there are the sooner a reversal come. The highest bullish reading was 91, which is extreme to a crash low of 16% bulls. At 16% a huge bull market formed. Lumber was another extreme at 98% and it’s well on its way in its crash.

I have never had such a line up indicators that are telling me the everything is going to take a deep hit into this fall. The DOW should also follow commodities  down, but also could correct right along with gold.

I have personally warned my two sisters and daughter in what could happen into this fall, so they now whats going on and to make them feel better about my trading in this market. I told them not to worry as I might even make a few thousand on the trip down.

 

Hits: 7

TGOD Bear Market Update

I use X as an unknown because we really don’t have any real  clue what the peak was. Best guess is a wave three peak, but that can be confirmed until  I see a good correction has taken place. TGOD is a medical marijuana related company. I have a short position on TGOD ans as long as it’s in the green I don’t plan on closing off my short. $6 may look like a good base but my trend lines may tell me a different story. I might buy into this if I see it has any bottom is forming. TGOD would have to go nuts to break out sideways, but if the down trend continues, then prices should stay inside the two parallel lines.

I would never buy into this stock at this chart pattern, so shorting this stock is like testing to see if this stock is in a bear market or a bull market correction.

Remember this type of a bullish move as we could run into that with gold, in 2019. From personal experience and you are a trader then you never want to miss a 5 wave run.

Missing a 5 wave bull run (ride) in Minor degree is something you don’t want to miss. I will talk more about this in the gold section and GDX.

 

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Copper Monthly Chart: Waiting For The Death Cross!

Is copper in a bull market or is the 2016 bullish phase just a bear market rally? In order for the markets to confirm it is a bear market rally, copper prices have to retrace all, and then fall below the point of origin. Which is just below the $2 price level. We have a wedge, which is screaming “danger, danger”at us. Another big bearish indicator is the potential for a Death Cross to come next!  Starting back with the first DC, followed by a GC. Then a small DC and an instant GC, where we are right now. So a monthly chart Death Cross is just below us, and it’s also in the middle of a wedge.

With a trade war in full swing is copper going to stay at these prices? Not in my Cycle degree world. With so many Death Crosses forming, copper is going to crash right along with all the other commodities. It happened in 2008 and it sure can happen in 2018! (10 years apart)

The Cycle degree wave 3 top in 2011 also matches the gold peak of 2011. The very first solar cycle peak topped in 2011 as well, so copper and the sun are related! The 2011 peak is also 31 years after the 1980 peaks of both gold and copper. Here is the real kicker, it could take copper and gold to hit a Supercycle degree wave 3 peak until 2041, plus or minus one year!

It could mean a long drawn out Gold bull market lasting until 2041, and end with a potential price peak of about $2225. It also means another Cycle degree 5th wave zigzag! Cycle degree wave 4 is far from over, as we may just finish part one this fall!

I checked the commercial reports and they are still net short copper, while the speculators are stuck in a bull trap, and are forced to sell. I bet there are a ton of sell stops below the 50-day MA and 200-day MA, as usual. I see 4 or 5, pretty bearish signals out there, which makes me very bearish on copper. Until at least all support is thrashed.

Hits: 9

VIX Daily Chart: All Gaps Closed!

I think this VIX has been in a long choppy decline, and just recently closed the two open gaps. Maybe we’ll get another low, but not a record new low. That January bottom should hold if the bull market in the VIX is going to perform for us.  The next ride up in the VIX should be bigger and better, but sold out if it makes a very vertical move.  Commercials are net long the VIX as the speculators are betting on the VIX short side.

They both can’t be right, and most always it is the speculators or the trend chasers that are in trouble. Any long positions in stocks would also crumble due to the long positions of  the VIX commercials.  Since all stops are closed, then we can look for  and find fresh gaps a bit easier

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Quick Amazon Stock Chart Review

When you see someone try to wave count Facebook in great detail, then  you will find someone with too much time on their hands.  I try to stay away from all single stock wave counts, but it’s nice to record a potential wave 3 top in Cycle degree. FB is done for, as far as I’m concerned,  as the age of the internet is in an, s curve plateau. Two trend lines can give us a clue how deep FB can crash in the impending Cycle degree bear market.  The standard correction for a big bear market could be a 70-80% retracement.

It’s the top trend line that is important as that shows a long steady climb. That top line is duplicated in parallel fashion and then dragged down to the bottom.  This points to the $100 price level.  Face Book is in such a bubble that it may burst and never rise again. FB will become an electronic burial ground for all the dying boomers as deleting your own account after you die is very hard todo.  Dead people do not pay  ad revenues the last time I checked, unless you become an AI vertual robot and live on forever.

Folks, we are coming into a time where all asset classes are going to have convulsions so large that “Buy&Hold” will no longer work for the next three years. There is a time to buy and there is a time to run to the hills and hunker down. Wait out the financial storm that will hit us, as this planet will be forced to de-leverage.

To show how expensive FB is to gold I have calculation when it was cheap at 100:1. Yes, with one ounce of gold you could buy 100 shares back in 2012. Now you can only buy 6.44 shares with one ounce of gold. This is the most extreme Gold/FB ratio I have ever recorded, and blows all previous cheap ratios out of the water.

As you can guess, I’m very bearish on the markets and FB is just another elephant in a china shop.  The Buy&Hold strategy is dead, for the next 3 years as even “value” investors are having a hard time in finding “value”.  Being bullish in the biggest bull market in history puts you inside the bubble. Bubble players don’t think they are in a bubble, so they will go down once the markets hit another iceberg.

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VIX Intraday Calm After The Storm?

In the last few days the markets suffered a bear attack send the VIX to new intraday record highs. Two of my unfilled gaps were  filled in a hurry, but we have two big open gaps below present prices. All the markets need now is a little effort by the attacking bulls and this VIX could drop like a rock filling the two gaps below.  Any gap has a 90% chance of getting filled, with the only question remaining is, “when”. Sometimes a gap will remain open for years (like gasoline futures) but eventually they will get filled.

There was nothing impulsive with this VIX run as these are typical diagonal wave structures. We are also one day away from a full moon, which can at times be very bullish for stocks. Maybe some calm will return before the next fear storm hits. Both gaps could get filled first, before another leg up in the fear gauge may happen.  The bottom gap would also be a great support area as VIX reversals can be pretty violent.  The vertcal move that the VIX did make should always be respected, as it is impossible for the masses to keep fear levels permanently elevated.

Diagonal wave structures dominate the entire VIX life cycle, just like they dominated and still dominate  the entire  Submillennium degree wave 3 still running today.

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Amazon: Price Still Heading To The Moon

It seems Amazon is impervious to any meaningful price correction. The record high so far has hit $1724 and has backed off a bit last week. Sure I would love to see a good correction as I think its high time for one to happen. We also know that any extreme can keep on pushing higher until another new extreme is reached. This extreme may be a Cycle degree top , but I will stay away from any huge moves until it happens. AMZN could just keep on bumping and grinding along, until some fundamental catalyst sets if off.   President Trump ‘s trade war may have unsuspecting consequences on Amazon.

Only the rich can play this Amazon game as average Joe can’t afford enough stocks to make a difference. If he does, then wouldn’t it be smart to sell high priced stocks to those rich people that can afford them. Buying from the poor and then selling to the rich is what buying low and selling high is all about. 😛

My top trend line might have more meaning than the bottom trend line has, but if a Cycle degree correction is coming then the bottom trend line may not hold.

There are a few stocks like Amazon, Apple, Tesla that seem to defy gravity and they need to get hit hard once the Nasdaq bubble starts to burst.

Back in April 2018, I show the  Gold/Amzn ratio hit 1.09:1, today this ratio is now 1.34:1. It now takes 1.34 gold ounces to buy just one Amazon stock which should also establish another new Gold/Amazon ratio extreme.

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TGOD And TGOD.WT Bearish Move Review

When an asset class goes vertical like TGOD has done after its IPO, then the people that were in the original IPO would be very rich! There is one big trick to all this as all investors have not made a single dime, until they have sold out. There were well over 2 million shares traded today and I bet many of the IPO investors are dumping to lock in their profits. The worst thing we can do is chase this bull market, but to wait until a good correction is visable.

I try to avoid single stock commentary but I can’t help it.  🙂 I show a “B” wave top in Minor degree as it syncronized well wth the peak in HMMJ.  TGOD could crash so deep that it will shock most participating speculators.  TGOD could retrace its entire IPO move if we are close to matching the HMMJ ETF pattern. No Price support is going to help us here if a 100% retracement is going to happen.

This is the warrant chart  for TGOD and the “B”wave top is just s reference point to the HMMJ pattern. TGOD.WT could fall well below $1.00 before it could be ready to bottom.

I’m sure TGOD is not inside the HMMF ETF, but it can still act much like HMMJ. Only time will tell, as to how well they will syncronize with each other. As far as I can tell from the HMMJ ETF is that we are correcting, but not finished at this point. Once I see a sufficient correction has taken place then a full set of 5 waves up should follow.  (5 waves in Minor degree)  Any trader should not miss 5 waves up in Minor degree, as that is the most exciting thing you can ever experience.

We are going to get swamped with good buying opertunities, but there are only a few that know how to catch a, “falling knife”, in a  “C” wave crash!

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HMMJ, Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF And TGOD IPO

HMMJ has gone higher than anticipated so that calls for a review and come up with a better fitting wave count.  I choked once I looked at the bear market as a potential triangle. We should be getting close to finishing the “D” wave in Minor degree.  We should get another zigzag decline that may look completely different than the other 4. We are still missing the “E” wave.  I could be completley wrong but this sideways bear market could be in a 4th wave correction. It could take the rest of the year to play out escepcially if we get many diagonal wave structures. So far this ETF is not leveraged so the wave structure may also be easier to count, once we think we have another good location.

 

Green Organic Dutchman Holdings Ltd. (TOR)

TGOD is a single stock which is only a little more than a month old. One thing is certain the stock has gone vertical and my bet is that a wicked correction is comming. I would like to see it correct big enough so we can have something to count. Right now TGOD has soared its entire IPO time with HMMJ, so a correction in both can happen. HMMJ’s rally started in April 2018 while TGOD started in May.  It would be something if the present TGOD peak is also a “D” wave peak.

Hits: 48

VIX Intraday Crash Update

So far the VIX has crashed and we can make the argument that the VIX has gone lower than $12.29. That would make the late May rally another bear market rally.  3 wave zigzag crashes are pretty normal in diagonal waves, and this decline could fall even further.  If a newer low becomes true then the May and June pattern cecomes just another wave 3-4-5.  The big open gap is now closed, but there will be no rest for the VIX bears as 2 more gaps are now open above present prices. These gaps will get filled, as all gaps have a 90% chance of getting filled.

It may take all of June for these gaps to get filled, and it could be another violent move once the VIX bears realize they are in a VIX bear trap! A VIX “bear trap” means a stock market “bull trap”.

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June, 1, 2018 VIX Intraday Crash Update

We are getting close to a VIX bear trap as the big gap is just about closed off.  Wall Street calls the VIX the fear index and as the VIX crashes investors become oblivious to the trade wars that have started to erupt in 2018. All the bad news in the world doesn’t seem to phase the bullish investor at this time. Of course that can change in a blink of an eye as we now have 2 open gaps above present prices. These two gaps will get filled so, I’m confident in saying fear is going to come back into the markets for June.

At $13.40 the big gap will be closed after which it can develop a base and then soar again.  Stopping well short of a new record low would be ideal.

Hits: 17

VIX Gyrations Update!

As much as I would like to see the VIX soar, I cannot ignore the gap that is still open directly below present VIX prices. This gap should still get closed off and even travel closer to the $10 price level. The VIX should not crash to new record lows, if what we have is a potential VIX, 3 wave correction.  Some traders were very well positioned to take advantage of the February spike with call options.  A trader named ’50 Cent’ made a huge bet and others did as well.  I’m sure that many others will see another VIX bullish set-up as this cycle keeps repeating itself.   Once the VIX starts another leg up, another spike to the upside can happen. It’s pretty hard to control our emotions to do the opposite of what the crowd is doing, but you have to remember that the ‘crowd’ can never benefit from the very same crowd.

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HMMJ Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF Update

In the past month HMMJ has been on a rally that looks more like an inverted zigzag than the start of a new impulse set of waves. The bearish trend in HMMJ sure is starting to look like a 5 wave diagonal decline and if I’m right  we should see this rally die and then head south again. Another set of 5 waves down in Minuette degree should land us at a wave 3 in Minor degree.

Crossing the $14 price line by even the slimiest of margins is all we need to help confirm that the bearish trend is still alive and well.

I would not touch this ETF with a 10-foot pole until all reamaing diagoanls waves are show they are all played out.  If the impending decline turns into a wild diagonal then this will also help to confirm another “C” wave deline. So far this has not happend on a smaller scale, so maybe we’ll get lucky  and we get a pretty clean decline.

 

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Apple Stock: Ride The Buffett Band Wagon!

 

Warren Buffett has repeatedly been buying Apple stock at record highs, in a record high stock market. I’m sure investors have jumped on the Buffett bandwagon as only the rich can afford to buy into Apple at these peaks.  Maybe it’s time to short Apple now that Warren Buffett has stopped buying. I couldn’t put a wave count on this, but it looks like Apple stock can go a bit higher. If the entire stock market starts to implode like the Nasdaq, or DOW then do you think that the Apple stock price, well remain permanently high?  I doubt it very much, but only time will help to confirm that.

I think Apple is also heading to a wave three Cycle degree top, but if volatility in Apple starts again, then you know a trend change is starting to happen.

I will keep my updates short, this Friday, but will do more updates later and during the weekend. I will focus more on some of these ETFs as they are more important to watch than every single intraday stock market update.

 

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