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Category Archives: Misc.

HDGE, All Aboard The Bandwagon Heading North!

I’m a big fan of westerns and there is no difference in riding a wild stagecoach than riding a Bandwagon that is still empty at this point. Once more people jump on this asset class is going to get over-loaded and then become prone to a crash. If I’m right we still have a long way before the stage fills up and the horses get tired. HDGE is going to meet resistance but eventually leave that in the dust. This run is far from finished as investors are in for a rough ride to put it mildly. Just like with other indices I see an expanded pattern, so a nice set of 5 waves in Minor degree should fully develop counting from the September 2018 bottom.

Hits: 5

Apple Decline Still Going Strong!

Readers may not understand any analysis done with the EWP, but wave counts that do not follow a strict sequence will never work.  Not until I switched over to Cycle degree specifications about 5 years ago did the EWP start to make sense to me. One of these special or complex corrections of an expanded pattern can also happen with single stocks. Of course, if we are not aware, or not looking for expanded patterns, our wave counts will be all over the place on the charts.

Many think that the market we are in is just a correction, but this is very misleading at best. The smartphone era is dying and saturated. Tim Cook is a late Boomer and still has many good years to go, but the older any CEO gets the less innovation and risk-taking the company takes.

With a big Apple price drop already behind us, you would figure that the Gold/AAPL ratio would get better.

I had one expensive reading of 5.27:1 on October 4th and our recent reading is 7.50:1. This is a bit better but nothing to scream out across the rooftops for.

Cheap would get us closer to a 21:1 ratio so we have a long way to go before that ever happens. I will have to adjust my smaller degree wave counts and even if my expanded top is not “real” the big correction might end up looking like a zigzag!

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VIX Not Ready To Crash!

The bullish action of the VIX tells us that  fear is present in the markets and at this time I believe the VIX has far more room to move up.  A few big gaps opened up in December which were quickly filled or closed off.

Not until I can count out 5 waves up in Minute degree, will we get close to another correction in the VIX. The little H&S patterns being setup also adds to the VIX bullish picture. A bullish VIX means bearish stocks so investors are not getting any Santa gifts just yet. I don’t have sympathy for investors that are still trying to milk out gains at an extreme record high. It’s like playing with a hot potato. If the VIX breaks out to a new record high this week remains to be seen, as the odds of a sustained VIX decline are getting less and less. It may take the rest of the week but the VIX should charge to new record highs.

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Idealized Submillennium Degree Wave 3 Review

Since about 2013, I became convinced that the basic Elliott Wave Principle is just one big impulse. The idealized chart above has a wave zero start with the ending of the Little Ice Age. Yes, global cooling killed the Medieval warm period but picking an exact date is impossible as the LIA took a few hundred years along the bottom. 1500-1800 could have been the worst of it as millions of people succumbed to malnutrition and disease. 

During that time British markets carried on into North America as trade flourished. I have another idealized chart made for commodities as this chart changed into an Impulse during the Roaring 1920s.

The markets in the real world are never this steep, but it’s one of the ways to fit it on a large format paper 24 inches wide. I work connecting all Cycle degree points together first, and the arrow points to the January Cycle degree peak.

Idealized charts work like blueprints and when we try to build the Elliott Wave Tower Of Babel, without looking at the blueprints, then we are guaranteed that any wave count will always fool us and the Elliott Wave Tower Of Babel will come falling down.

When we switch the DJIA to linear settings it sure can look like the Idealized chart. If we compare the 2000 peak with modern day wave counting methods, then the majority of all wave analysts out today are a “Minimum”  of 4-degree levels higher than what my wave counts are. 



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TSLA Defying Gravity?

Tesla has been defying gravity far too long. It seems to be building a very flat top squeezed by a rising bottom which looks like a wedge to me.  Of course, if you are the bullish person you’re not going to be looking for any bearish signals. TSLA has defied the bears as well, but Elon Musk made the bear’s life miserable during the entire time. 

I have an open or uncapped 5th wave so technically I don’t know what wave count is next.

I do, but the only reason this 5th wave is uncapped is that I had no more editing room. I believe that TSLA has or still has to hit a Cycle degree wave 3 peak but I need more evidence in the short-term to confirm it. Tesla is all about commodities, so it stands to reason for all the choppy wave structures. In the future, I will re-work the last 2-3 years in different ways to eliminate any potential expanded top. No expanded top can mean a single zigzag while an expanded top is instantly a flat.

4 or 5 times Tesla tried to breakout and push higher, bit so far it has failed.

My Gold/TSLA database is not that large, as I have to build it from scratch. Today this ratio sits at 3.48:1 which is extreme when we use gold as money.  Most of 2018 the Gold/TSLA has been averaging between 3-5:1 which looks like TSLA has been hitting a ratio brick wall.

The cheap range of the Gold/TSLA ratio is between 60-70:1 so we have a longway to go before TSLA becomes cheap again.

Hits: 6

HMMJ Bear Market Continues!

 

I’m sure many investors are still “High” on marijuana stocks but I think reality may be setting in for those that didn’t expect pot stocks to crash. I knew they would crash as as this new industry turn into a mania instantly.  This ETF is showing the way and today HMMJ has created another spike to the downside. A correction may come but this market decline is far from over. I think the industry also has it shares of crooks as they just love to take advantage of the emotion. Many big companies have also crashed and the only people that made any money are the ones that participated in any of the IPOs.   I will never turn bullish on this sector until all the ETFs and stocks have been crushed, and even then there is no guarantee they will go anywhere.

The wave count is more like a diagonal which is normal for anything commodities related but they are a bit smoother set of waves. Sure, the price has come down to the point where the Gold/HMMJ ratio is at about 80:1. The most expensive Gold/HMMJ ratio at one point was 49:1 in September  2018.

The dirt cheap ratio was 150:1 so we have a long way to go before this ETF turns real cheap. It may never return to the 150:1 ratio but we may catch it if it keeps heading into a ratio price brick wall.

I don’t have the time or don’t want to spend the time, tracking this ratio as I have a data base of over 28 ratios I’m already tracking. I updated most of them today while US markets were closed.

The potential start of a 5 wave run in Minor degree would match the stock markets wave count as well. I doubt that this will finish this year as it could stretch into early spring 2019.

I think many companies will disappear as margins are going to be razor thin with huge start-up costs involved as well. Then the biggest con of all is that there is a shortage of pot! Yeah right! The dispensaries in Vancouver never shut down. They’ve had their licenses for a few years already and never missed a beat waiting for the rest of Canada to wake up.

If the legal markets can’t supply inventory just yet, then the black market will always come to the rescue.

 

Hits: 3

VIX Daily Chart Golden Cross Review

 

 

Most analysts ignore the VIX, and investors ignore the VIX even more. When the VIX soars, you know that the stock market will plunge. In January 2018 the VIX bottomed trapping all the VIX short players. This caused the spike up to the 50 price level which is an illusion. When I switch to line mode the 37 price level is the max. For all of 2018, the VIX has been in a bull market, and chances are good we will never see a new record low for many years. Stock euphoria and complacency would have to return in order for another huge leg up to happen in stock markets.

It’s next to impossible to be super bearish with the VIX as without fanfare the VIX has created the Golden Cross with this daily chart. The VIX is built with SP500 options and is the main reason why the VIX is this choppy. SP500 investors are walking into a bull trap while VIX bears are in a bear trap. The VIX would have to drop for weeks (50 days ?)before another VIX Death Cross can happen.

Right now the VIX is sitting on the 200-day MA  and it created a couple of gaps on the way down. Those gaps will get filled on the way up as fear will return for investors? The Fed created a nice stock market bull trap and the VIX is the big indicator where we can watch it happen. Switch this chart to weekly settings and you will see that the Golden Cross just happened in November. These are very bullish long-term VIX indicators and most of the world ignores them.

It may take the rest of the week, but some more downside can happen, after which I expect a full reversal and a new record high for the VIX.

Stocks soared in a wave 2 in Minor degree yesterday,  as the VIX crashed in wave 2 in Minor degree. Once these set of 5 waves start to come to an end then chances are very good, I will turn into a stock bull as we would be at my VIX  “A” wave peak in Primary degree.  “A” wave bottoms in stocks are Elliott wave “buy” signals, escpecially if they are Primary degree “A” waves.

 

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VIX Intraday Update

 

If you want to witness wild diagonal waves then the VIX will give them all to you. Needless to say, this makes wave counting the VIX all the more challenging.  The VIX also has prime examples of vertical spikes in both directions.  I show a pattern that sure looks like it is still correcting with another zigzag. I would love to see the VIX crash and take out that November low.  If the VIX still is this bearish, then stocks should remain bullish in the short term.

The commercial hedgers are net short the  VIX so that doesn’t bode well for an instant stock market bearish decline. Mind you I have seen commercial traders positions change in rapid fashion and we won’t know that until every Friday afternoon.  The Death Cross has been triggered but at these intraday levels, I don’t find them all that useful.

If the November rally is a bear market rally then this has to get confirmed by completely retracing my “A” wave bottom in Minute degree. This would be below the 16.09 price level.

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Apple Stock Crash Update.

This is for the people that must have trend lines, so I added a few lines that are important from my perspective. Most of the time I draw all these lines offline, but I don’t always publish them.  I went back to the 2015-2016 bull market which is where most indices also corrected with the same wave count.  The news that Apple and Amazon are hooking up destroyed this stock as all the mall stores will lose customers.

If Apple retraced back down to the bottom bullish trendline, then this would only get us closer to a single Primary degree bottom. Apple stock imploding from the Fibonacci $233 price level is not a surprise, as stocks also implode from the $55 Fibonacci price levels.

Every Fibonacci price drop is a 61% crash which we might get two of them.  The entire Apple wave count has always displayed diagonal wave structures, this is why I have no Primary degree wave 5 peak labeled. It’s a Primary degree “C” wave.

Without a doubt, this Apple stock was in a mania blow-off in Cycle degree. Any mania does not end with an 18 or 20% correction, as most of the time markets fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  That would get us closer to that $89 price level.

Apple was in a Cycle degree peak so, at a minimum, we have to see another Cycle degree bottom. 3 waves in Primary degree is what I will be looking for, which could also take until 2022 to play out.

Investors are going to learn what the real price value of Apple’s stock is in the next few years.

There is also a minimum of 3 gaps still open below present prices and I bet at least two of them will get filled.

The most extreme Gold/Apple ratio registered at about 5.27:1 on September 10th. It has been hitting the ratio brick wall and has now started to spread again. Still at a 6.34:1 ratio this morning, Apple stock is still extremely expensive to the price of gold. Cheap may come closer to the 21:1 range but that is only a reference. The gold ratio price brick wall would get hit first.

Some will never believe that Apple stock can even crash, but the size of this Apple bear market all depends on what degree this 2018 mania peak was!

 

Hits: 22

TLRY: Marijuana Mania Crash Review!

Smart investing is all about being in the right place at the right time, so do you think TLRY was a good buy when it hit $300?  This move is all about FOMO and it has nothing to do with fundamentals. Who in their right mind would buy into a vertical move like this?  Who was that greatest fool, thinking that the $300 price is a good deal?

The market punished these fools, with close to a 70% price crash below the $90 price level. My main interest is about the mania that has been surrounding a new industry, but some of these investors could have been sampling the product when they hit the “Buy” button when TLRY hit $300.

I do not give any investment advice on any single stocks that I post, and I have no holdings in pot-related companies at this time. I’ve had people ask me if it’s time to invest in pot stocks, and my simple answer is in the form of a question, “Do you have a trading account or investment account open”?  The answer is usally, “No”. This just shows how insane any mania can get when people what to invest, that have never bought or sold any stock in their life!

I guess TLRY is in a bear market when it hit a 70% decline. Stories about pot shortages did not happen in Vancouver.  Most of those dispenseries never missed a beat as they were open under municiple by-laws, not federal laws.

 

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Bloomberg Commodities Bearish COT Report Review

 

I Looked through the COT  Reports and this Bloomberg report does “not” look good for the so-called commodity bull market that the talking heads keep telling us about.  Commercial hedgers increased their net short positions by 11,964 contracts and removed 700 contracts from their long positions. This shows the hedgers closest to the industry having a very bearish outlook which will not change until these numbers start to shift the other way again.

When you look at the non-commercial reports they are net long by a wide margin. Both parties can’t be right and the great majority of the time the speculators always get into a trap of some type or another!

Even silver, gold, platinum, palladium, all showed increases in commercial short positions. None of the readings I looked at support a potential big bull market reversal in the works.  All this just confirms the idea not to waste my time, chasing bullish wave counts at this time.

Copper was the exception, but that was not a big shift to long positions. Even the commercials in the USD COT report took some short positions away, but they still have a large net short position to fight with.

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VIX Intraday Update: Will It Soar Or Crash?

With the stock market being bullish after the midterm elections, then technically the VIX should drop like a rock.  It did drop like a rock but left an open gap in its wake. In the short term, the VIX could soar, closing off the gap but then resume another leg down.  This leg down is just part of a correction which could end up being another zigzag as well. The stock bulls came out forecasting another huge move to the upside, but I don’t see it that way at this time. The VIX had its low in January 2018 at the $9 price level, so the VIX has been in a bull market since then.

The midterm elections went about as expected with the Republicans losing ground. It will definitely make it harder for President Trump to push through any agendas he has. In the end, if we relied on politics and fear to make investment decisions, then chances are good those decisions will not work out.

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Apple Crash Update: As Warren Buffet Loses 4 Billion in One Day!

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-big-bet-on-apple-has-one-wall-street-trader-asking-has-he-lost-it-2018-11-05

Apple investors are getting hammered including Warren Buffet. Warren Buffet has the biggest stake ever in Apple. I cannot see the logic of buying anything at extreme record highs but rich people are the only ones that can waste their money buying high price stocks. It’s all the other investors that are going to get sucked into thinking that Apple stock is still going to the moon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/warren-buffett-loses-nearly-4-billion-in-single-day-on-his-apple-stake.html

Warren Buffet is  buying his own stock back as well. If $4 billion is not enough, then just follow this saga as the world is slowing down and heading into another recession. Buffet bought IBM the same way, and look how that turned out. In recent months the Gold/Apple ratio has been the most expensive around the 8:1 ratio and today it sits at 6.0:1 about the same it was back in August 2018. A cheap Gold/Apple ratio is about 21:1, which may never get hit again but when any ratio starts to hit a price brick wall, then this is a sign of a major top. I think Apple is also at a Cycle degree wave 3 peak and they do not correct in just a few months as it could take years for this impending bear market to play out.

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TGOD And The Results Of A Mania!

 

There is no other way of describing the legalization of marijuana use in Canada.  This marijuana mania is no different than what the bitcoin mania was a few years ago.  They laughed at me we I mentioned that TGOD could fall below $5, well how does $3.00 work for?  I actually shorted this stock several times and made a little money doing it, but I still would not touch any of these stocks, as TGOD could disappear as many of these producers would have to merge. Size matters as I think the US-based companies are already taking over and could gobble up any other grower.

I’m sure you have heard about the great marijuana shortage up here and some shops selling out. Well, any shortage can be fixed in a month, just for every pot smoker in Canada, quit for a whole month.  How long do you you think it would take them to fill all the shelves to the rafters!  Marijuana is a consumer good, so it’s subject to the whims of the age group.

I’m kidding about this, as we all know that there wouldn’t be any takers in Canada!

I put up TGOD as just another inverted zigzag with an “X” wave. We could get another zigzag bull market at a later date.  I do not spend any time on the fundamentals of most companies, and doing your own research is critical.  I have no time and no interest in spending weeks trying to justify any fundamental homework!  Even the Warrant that goes with TGOD retraced its entire bullish cycle.

 

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Amazon Crash Update

 

 

The stock that investors once loved has now crashed since the August 2018 peak. There may be an expanded pattern with this top, but for now, I will leave it out for now but a 5 wave sequence has started, which would be 5 waves down in Minor degree. I will have to adjust later but in the end, this AMZN crash is far from over. Over $119 billion has gone up in smoke, chopping the elephant down in size a bit. Buying on the “Dip”?  Ok, that sounds like fun! AMZN could get cut in 1/2 again before any real bottom may present itself.  The world is slowing down as a potential recession is heading our way.  We might not see a large counter-rally until the media pumps out the bearish news. This could all remain bearish for the rest of the year, but eventually, we should also get a Primary degree counter rally within the next 4 years. The trend is obviously down as buyers are no longer in love with Amazon.

This is not some little correction in a bull market but it is the start of a huge bear market that only a few have been warning us about. If anything then  AMZN might become a “Buy”, once Solar Cycle #25 has arrived. AMZN sure charged up with Solar Cycle #24, so I expect the same to happen again.

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PLAT: Platinum Stock Index Mega Crash Review

 

PlAT is just an index of  Platinum related stocks and it seemed to have peaked in 2007 and then followed all other indices down as well. There is no way I can put a wave count to this, but we could be at the point where Cycle degree wave 4 has already bottomed. We may still be in a fake rally but longer term I’m very bullish. Was the crash a human-caused crash, or just another flash crash?

This is a chart with weekly settings and the crash shows up as a single drop. Platinum is the third highest traded metal after gold and silver, but the media does little to report on platinum.

I only wanted to post this ugly looking crash once, but I will post a little more with the ETF that tracks platinum as a metal. (PPLT)

When we take this same chart and switch it to a monthly setting, then that solid line you see disappears and we are left with a massive gap!

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Blog Search Engine Stats And Pages Viewed.

 

I thought I would post some stats for Elliott Wave 5.0. The above chart just shows all the sources of search engine stats with Google leading the way by a wide margin. These are mostly organic search hit results,  with the bottom darker lines created by all other search engines. I was very happy once my average page views started to hit 2000 pages viewed per day.  There are dramatic spikes and huge drops as well but in the end, the trend is generally still up.

 

This screen clip was taken early in the morning which shows 1495 pages viewed already, so today should be another good day. Yesterday well over 4100 pages very viewed in one 24 hour time period. This internal stat counter also shows 79,925 pages viewed in one month and we still have 3 days to go. Using rough calculations I figured that this blog could hit a million page views by the end of the year, but this has been achieved in October already. One day, 3000 pages viewed per month may become normal and I would be very happy if those kinds of numbers eventually materialized consistantly.

If readers like they can conduct a search in any search engine using, “Elliott Wave 5.0 Reboot”,  with large image settings. This will ring up many of my charts on the first page or so. I know most all my wave counts are floating around the internet but it may be impossible to find all of them.

As nice as some of these numbers sound, there is no critical mass here. In the last three years, not a single wave analyst has come forward that wants to keep Cycle degree wave analysis alive. I have had some financial support from a few dedicated fans, but costs in keeping this site running are not getting any cheaper.

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Friday, Silver, Copper, Gold, Commitment Of Traders Report: COT Review.

 

 

One would guess that last weeks bullish action in gold will keep right on going, but the commercial hedgers don’t see it that way as they all added short positions last week.  Even the Palladium hedgers made bearish bets last week with Platinum starting to be the exception.

I believe Platinum will eventually turn very bullish for a long-term bullish move, but any short-term downside can still happen.

Commercials are also building a large net short position in the US dollar, which would be very bullish for gold. 5 bearish COT reports may have more power over a single Currency at least in the short term. In typical fashion the speculators chased the golden bull as a run to safe-haven seems to be front and center. In the end, all emotional bullish moves come to an end as speculators always get into one trap or another.

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Has Solar Cycle 25 Arrived?

 

Some science sites are already suggesting the Solar Cycle 25 is already here, but I doubt that very much. Spaceweather.com did a very good job of tracking the arrival of Solar Cycle 24 and I think they are doing just as good of a job this time. The total spotless days in the year are still a long way away, which might give us an entire year with 70% of sun activity being blank! This happened in December of 2008, and by March of 2009 the world stock markets turned and the great recession started to come to an end.

If you look at the first solar peak in 2011, this matches the gold price peak so well, I choked when I first saw it. All of the commodities started to take hits from the 2011 peak, so to say that the sun has no impact on earthlings, is a silly idea at best. Even climate change scientists (IPPC Report) recently declared that earth is going to meltdown if we don’t stop pushing CO2 into the atmosphere. It’s the end of the world if we don’t. Fear mongering is what the IPPC does best so to fight this fear observe the turning your self in the next few years.

When sunspot activity is low it allows extra space radiation to hit the earth which Spaceweather has been tracking with science students in California and other areas of the USA. They also track the radiation for flyers as the increased space radiation can produce problems during flights over the north pole.  The weekly weather balloon readings of the space radiation reports will show decreasing radiation numbers after Solar Cycle 25 arrives. I’m no solar scientist but I have been tracking solar cycles since before 2000!  The EWP books contain stock market and solar cycle connections and it is obvious to me how the bear market in stocks stopped, and a new bullish phase started.

Don’t you just love that, “You are here” arrow, so I thought I would add this chart just in case we are lost!  The secondary peak in Solar Cycle 24 was a bit higher but that peak matches my wave 3-4 correction in Intermediate degree. Solar Cycle 24 is also one of the smallest since the early 1900’s, and Solar Cycle 25 could be smaller yet. My bet is that Solar Cycle 25 could end up being just a bit taller than Solar Cycle 24, which remains to be seen. Solar activity shows Elliott Wave patterns all the time as the 2014 peak sure fits an expanded top! From the 2009 bottom the solar cycle also produced very nice 5 wave runs, but on the downside, they make 3 wave counter-rallies, just like any bear market rally in the stock markets.

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VIX Monthly Chart 2007-2018 Review

 

When I look at this VIX monthly chart it is impossible to count each little wave as there are no impulse waves to count. VIX and any commodities belong in the diagonal world where all the Elliott Wave impulse rules are broken. This is how options also behave because the VIX is built on using SP500 options.  Each spike to the upside represented a “Buy” signal in stocks, but we are nowhere near that point at this time.

The VIX should eventually see that $90 peak again but not before any potential “A” wave in Primary degree arrives.  Any move above those  $50 spikes, would start to get us close. Any “B” wave top in the VIX would be a stock market buy signal.  Watching the VIX is about as exciting as watching paint dry, so not to many analysts even give the VIX any attention.

The VIX is an emotional indicator, which is a “fundamental indicator” which can be used for the EWP.

The commercial hedgers are still net long, but it is starting to shift.  When the commercials have built large net short VIX positions, then the end of the VIX bull run would be getting close.

That $9 base is huge so at some future extreme when the VIX hits $9, you know it’s high time to run to cash.

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HMMJ Reefer Madness In Canada!

 

 

This week is when the law comes down to legalize marijuana in Canada.  We keep hearing about a shortage of marijuana, but this is all about “legal” pot shortages as there are no shortages of any pot on the street.

If the legal stuff has to catch-up in supply then how can all the retail dispensaries create any earnings?  When the market realizes this, there could be a huge sell-off and this ETF would plunge.

Sure, there are lots of winner stocks but there are just as many losers.

Not until I see a clear correction from last months record high, will I turn bullish on any marijuana-related ETF.

There will be tax (GST ?) and a (SIN) tax as well, so this could dramatically change the positive outlook that the media is telling us.

Any move below $13 would sure help to confirm my bearish case, and sometime in the next few weeks, we should get a reaction?

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VIX Daily Chart Update.

 

This VIX responds to this as it is made up of options on the SP500. It is the main reason why the VIX contains such wild moves. Impulse waves are a rare luxury in the VIX, so if you don’t understand the wild patterns involved, we can’t get close to see a reversal in stocks.

The VIX bear market also ended in early 2018, after which the VIX exploded as my potential “A” wave in Intermediate degree.  We do have a vertical spike, from which we can get a correction or the end of a larger trend. The high of $28 has been reached and the next few weeks will tell, as I think the $50 price level still needs to get retraced. Ultimately the VIX should exceed the $90 price level, but not on this trip. The VIX pointing straight up is a buy signal for stocks, but it could also be a very short buy signal. When we hit the Primary degree top of the VIX, this is when we can take some long positions for the impending “B” wave counter rally still to come. One more move above 50 may do it, but only time will help confirm that.

Falling wedges create some kick-ass reversals, and the VIX is a prime example of that. The US dollar has a large falling wedge as well, as both will produce new long-term trends.

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HMMJ: Reefer Madness In Canada Update!

 

Marijuana-related stocks and ETFs have gone wild in Canada. It smells like a mania to me, as it has all the same media attention as when Bitcoin went ballistic. My wave positions are just experimental, as there is no real history of cycles that I can see or use. The spiked top this September is the record top to beat, created with all the Marijuana stock IPOs that have been pushed onto the markets. IPOs always come out at peaks of the markets, so what has been happening is no surprise. I participated in one IPO (MMJ) and sold when it went vertical at about 60¢. The same stock is now around 16¢. Many single stocks have done this as I also unloaded some pot stock losers.

Not until I see a correction that makes any sense, will I turn bullish on the industry.

At a minimum, I would like to see HMMJ fall below $14, with the mainstream media being very pessimistic.

I have some initial Gold/HMMJ ratio’s recorded, but there is no way that it can be useful at this time. The Gold/HMMJ ratio is at 49:1 which makes this ratio the most expensive gold ratio to date, but still a bit away from being insane!

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CRB Boom And Bust Cycles 1865-2011 Review

 

I have mentioned it many times that I use the 30-year commodities cycles to help forecast time into the future as well as into the past. You can let your thoughts run wild here but we can see, that being out by just 1 single degree can send you reeling as you warp drive on paper everytime we mark down a degree. 30-year, 60-year, 90-year and the 120-year cycles are all the same. A 600-year span would be 10, 60-year cycles, just short of a Fibonacci number 610. Commodities run on their own idealized pattern that is all based on diagonal wave structures, which are just zigzags connected to each other.

A shorter description might be that we take the ending diagonal 5th wave in our EWP book, and stretch it horizontally and print it on legal paper size. Some of the bear markets below have lasted 17-18 years before the next “C” wave leg would start.

From 1920, and what I have is the SC degree wave 1 peak, we can count forward 90 years and we get 2010, off by one year peaking in 2011. Take 2011 and ad yet another 90 years, we get 2101!

the year 2101 is Submillennium Degree wave 3. Adding only 30 years to the 2011 peak, we get 2041 as a potential year for SC degree wave three to end. I count gold out much the same way as I firmly believe that the 2011 peak was a 30-year mania cycle peak and not some correction in an ongoing bull market.

Since many commodities are in the CRB different pattern in the corrections also happen. The main thing is we can use the 2011 wave count (position) to establish a very strong base to count from into the future. Wave analysis is not about flipping numbers and letters around like they are chicken on the barbecue, as I just can’t change the 2011 wave position on a whim anymore!

If you still see many wave analysts change their 2011 location around, then they have no clue where they really are. Any wave 5 peaks, that you see on the net, that are not capped, instantly tells you that the wave analyst is lost.

Looking at all commodities from a Cycle degree perspective is not something I just dreamed up but was a sequential retreat from GSC degree, then down to SC degree, and for the last few years, it’s all done from a Cycle degree perspective.

Elliott Wave is not about counting what we see, but it’s all about what we are supposed to see if our vision of an idealized diagonal is real! Just because something goes sideways does not mean it’s an automatic 4th wave.

 

 

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VIX Futures A Correction or a Bear Market!

 

The world of commodities are connected with zigzags which are just diagonal waves, than can overlap. The VIX is some of the worst diagonal wave structures you will see, with siver getting my second vote.  I look for the rough outline first. This has the potential to be a corrective zigzag. It would be nice that next week the VIX will still close that gap below us, after which fear could strike the markets on an even bigger scale.  SP500 options make up the VIX, so we can see the extreme violent swings options can produce.

Spikes to the downside can happen in a flash, and usally at the end of a run, so you got to be fast to catch any bottom in the VIX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Apple: Did Warren Buffett Push Apple To The Limit?

 

Maybe I’m the odd ball as I see Warren Buffett go out of his way to by into Apple stock at world record highs. Warren Buffett created his own bull market and the majority are falling into the same trap.  What does Apple do with all this free money?  They go out and blow it buying their own shares back at world record highs.  It see it as a complete waste of money given to them by the share holders. Sooner or later Warren Buffett will have to take a rest, and when he does this Apple stock will crash!  We now have another major AAPL stock peek and it has started to back off in the last few days. In the long run all asset classes are going to suffer a deflationary crash and Apple will not be exempt from this. You can pour over the fundamentals all you want, but fundamentals always tell us the wrong things at the extremes.

The Gold/Apple ratio speaks volumes if you know how to use it. A record expensive ratio has been at 7.29:1, this has now been blown out of the water and this morning this ratio stands at 5.48:1, which is the most expensive reading I have ever recorded with the Gold/Apple ratios.

We would have to get to 21.81:1 before it becomes cheap again.  We would need a bit bigger decline so it has no more time to hit another new record top in 2018!

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HMMJ: Bull Market Coming To An End?

 

HMMJ soared in August. Now what?  This has all the signs of a good old fashioned bear market rally, if see this rally as part of an inverted flat.  I sure wouldn’t touch this ETF with a 100 foot pole as chasing a bull market will get you trampled. We will certainly find out if the marijuana mania will keep going. If this is a bear market rally then complete retracement back to the point of orgin will happen. Below $14 would be the magic number to beat and it would confirm that this rally was just a bear market rally.

I took some Gold/HMMJ ratio readings today which was 67.9:1. This is far from being cheap as we would need 150:1 to get oversold. Ratios are impossible to kill as it’s a mathematical connection, they can expand and compress to the extreme sides but the connection will never break. I keep about 20 ratios in a pool, and they give me real time feedback. This “Ratio Pool” is in-house data that most will never see or use, but I have been using them since I called the crash of oil in 2008.

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HMMJ: Another Wild Ride Up! Or Crash And Burn?

 

How do you like this wild ride so far? Well remember it well as it can disapear just as fast. If I had the free money to short this, I sure would try and do so. Vertical runs like these just don’t last, even the open gap tells us so. I don’t know if there is an options chain on this or not but I will look into it.  These wave positions are experimental as I applied diagonal wave counting methods to it, but on a much smaller scale. Gold could look like this sometime in 2019, so we sure don’t want to miss that party!

This has all the makings of a potential zigzag crash and HMMJ could start a long 5 wave decline and crash to major lows. If this happens, then I will try and be a buyer  as close to the bottom that I can. My priority are the gold stock ETFs and their larger trends.

I have to check in my records but my collection of any Gold/Hmmj ratio has just started. Today this ratio is 55.33:1 measured at a high point. If this ratio has any merit with HMMJ then we will find out, as this ratio should expand by a wide margin. I think demographics and  secure jobs can drive the Hemp industry cycles. Also it would be interesting to see if solar cycle #25 drives any marijuana price cycles.

The big wedge I show is it an illusion or is it real? I consider rising wedges extremeley bearish and third on my list of importance. No bottom trend line will hold against a big impending bearish move. Either way, it looks like a very interesting set-up to keep tabs on.

In reality I no longer have to fill out any wave counts until we get to the bottom.  If there is enough mainstream news coverage of a future hemp industry crash, then pay attention if they all start to think alike, then they are mostly likley to be wrong and we can bet against them. I bet against the bullish wave counters every time as they are projecting the same trend as what they think they are seeing.  Any crash can also take until the end of the year and then follow gold’s rebound as well.

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HMMJ ETF Update

Here we go again, with another rally attempt with this marijuana ETF,  tracking the industry. Short term we are looking for a $21 resistance price level after which HMMJ can turn down again and produce a new bear market low. Any “B” wave can contain a triangle, but we know when we get one, that it will force a degree change once HMMJ bottoms.

Bare minimum its a one degree change, but others contain another higher degree level. I will not trade in this ETF as the gold markets have more natural leverage built in, besides that I want to preserve my cash when I get it.

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HMMJ Bear Market Update

This HMMJ chart is still the best ETF to track the legal marijuana industry.   Since it is so new there really is no track record we can rely on. My wave positions could be so far off, even though we could be heading down to a flat bearish ending. My bottom trend line may not even hold, as we are close to a 75-150-day MA Death Cross in HMMJ as well.

 

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