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Category Archives: SPX

SPX: Flying High This Morning

 

This SPX chart is flying high but it also left 2 gaps in its wake.  I’m sure those two gaps will get filled, but I can’t give a time frame when they will get closed. Even the futures charts have gaps, so  those two gaps will keep me in a long-term bearish mood. I made some position changes with the DJIA, but left them off the September peak, due to space limitations.

The Market Vane Report on the SP500 was pretty boring as they ranged between 53% and 55% bulls present. That is not even enough to get out of bed in the mornings for, as those readings are just middle of the road. If the big bearish picture is still in effect, then no new record highs should happen. The VIX has crashed acting inversely to the SPX, so in this case, the VIX is acting correctly.

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SPX: SP500 Index Rally Update!

 

Some of these waves in the SPX sure look better from Bigcharts than they do with any of the futures contracts I cover.  We had a nice spike to the downside just yesterday and now the second day, the SPX made a wild rocket move to the upside. Before noon our time, the SPX made a huge spike to the upside, with a huge open gap as well. That makes for a deadly combination, and I see it as a fake start to any mythical bull market we may still be in!  If all the futures-related commercial positions were all net long, then it would be a different story.

Any rally like this starts out, by hitting all the “Buy” orders first.  Now sell orders will be piling up below present prices, and the bulls will turn to instant bears once their stop-loss orders start getting hit. This can go on and on, and once the SPX support prices get close to that February low, then you will see investors really freak out!  There are crashes,and then there are crashes and bear markets. Crashes happen at smaller degree levels. On large degree corrections you often get a bear market rally before the long bearish decline.

This is a Cycle degree bear market and it looks like we are going to get a bear market rally and then the longer drawn out decline. With the major indices it looks like we will get a Cycle degree flat, but, in the end, it might look like a zigzag! I might be posting more SPX charts in the future, as these charts are smoothed out a bit more.

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SPX 2018 Elliott Wave Review

 

 

SPX is another SP500 type index. IVV is also a Sp500 related ETF.  It was the January 2018 peak where my Cycle degree wave 3 resides. What followed was an expanded type top, which most USA indices displayed as well. The last 8 months were very bullish with record new highs, which has now reversed. “C” wave crashes have a tendency to do exactly that, so this bearish move is not a surprise at all.  Any company inside the SPX will also get trashed, as all the high fliers have crashed as well.  I don’t think we are at wave 1 in Minor degree just yet, but it can easily be adjusted at later date. The choppy 5 waves you see ending in October, are diagonal waves which are also an indicator that the SPX ran against the larger trend.

There are forecasts being made to stay in for the “long” haul! Investors will suffer huge losses and could end up waiting 3-4 years just before we hit a major bottom. Can investors handle a 70-75% stock market crash? Every major top, since 2000 had the experts telling us to stay in for the long run. The only reason we get told this is because the experts have no clue how deep any correction can go. The stock bubble mania has ended folks, and from here on, the younger Millennial crowd of investors are going to take some serious hits if they are still invested.

The function of stock markets declining is deflationary, just like in 1929-1932 and in 2007-2008.  If any boomers are still invested then, they will get wiped out as boomers are retiring at a rate of 10,000 per day!

We are looking at a potential Cycle degree decline in the next few years, and it will not stop with a simple 10% correction. A 40% correction will not do it as well, even though 40% is my standard wave 4 correction depth.

 

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