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Category Archives: Single Stocks

Apple New Record High And The Fibonacci Number $233!

 

Apple topped out early yesterday and seems to be heading down along with all the other indices. I call it the “Buffet Rally” as he was buying at record highs for months. Nobody else has that kind of money to throw around, as it seems he created the bull market in Apple as he was buying. Apple stock is held by many hedge funds and big investment funds, but they will have no stomach holding onto Apple stock when Apple continues to crash.

I keep about 20 gold/ratios in my ratio pool, and Apple just peaked out with a Gold/Apple ratio of 5.27:1.

This is an all-time ratio expensive reading for what I have records for. The previous most expensive ratio was 7.85:1, which has now been broken by a wide margin. Those that call Apple as a good investment have no clue about the insane Gold/Apple ratio displayed here today!

I will work the expanded version at this time, and even then Apple topped at a Fibonacci number of $233!  Can Apple crash down to $144? Sure it can and even more if we consider a Cycle degree wave 4 crash is coming.

Buying on the dips will slaughter investors if they don’t understand how serious the coming recession-depression will be. Not until Solar Cycle #25 starts up, would I bet that Apple will be a good investment again.

Of course, you may have to wait 3-4 years before that happens. 2022 is an expected bottom as years ending with a “2” seemed to spawn huge bull markets.

Hits: 7

Facebook Crash And Burn Review

 

When analysts are talking about buying on the dip in Facebook do not have a clue that the bull market in FB has finished, with that huge drop and open gap a mile wide.  Not knowing when a bull market has ended or even care to learn how bubbles can end, will always lose when investing with the herd.  I don’t know which gap is bigger, the one up top or the big gap below $34! Longer term it would not surprise me if FB eventually crashed down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. Many investors can’t think that far ahead as that is too much like work.

This crazy tech mania will crash and burn and the only real question is when a real bottom may arrive? That may not happen until late 2022 as stock markets around the world can crash 70% or more. 2022-90 years gets us back to 1932. 90 years are 3, 30 year cycles or 1 year off a Fibonacci 89. 89 is one of the most powerful Fibonacci numbers you don’t want to ignore. Most people do ignore all the even Fibonacci numbers, which I don’t

There is no way anyone can pick a ratio bottom, when nobody has a clue how big the correction is going to be in the first place. Facebook may end up like another Tulip Mania story never to rise again, where the top gap may never get closed!  Just like the tech section imploded in 2000, 2008, we will get another bear market and recession just the same.

Years ending with a “2” have been very bullish turning years so 2022 will be a very important date to watch.

The Gold/FB ratio is sitting at 7.32:1 and it should expand as FB keeps on crashing. Cheap at one time was a Gold/FB ratio of 100:1,  so we have a long way to go before FB becomes cheap again.

Hits: 10

Apple: Did Warren Buffett Push Apple To The Limit?

 

Maybe I’m the odd ball as I see Warren Buffett go out of his way to by into Apple stock at world record highs. Warren Buffett created his own bull market and the majority are falling into the same trap.  What does Apple do with all this free money?  They go out and blow it buying their own shares back at world record highs.  It see it as a complete waste of money given to them by the share holders. Sooner or later Warren Buffett will have to take a rest, and when he does this Apple stock will crash!  We now have another major AAPL stock peek and it has started to back off in the last few days. In the long run all asset classes are going to suffer a deflationary crash and Apple will not be exempt from this. You can pour over the fundamentals all you want, but fundamentals always tell us the wrong things at the extremes.

The Gold/Apple ratio speaks volumes if you know how to use it. A record expensive ratio has been at 7.29:1, this has now been blown out of the water and this morning this ratio stands at 5.48:1, which is the most expensive reading I have ever recorded with the Gold/Apple ratios.

We would have to get to 21.81:1 before it becomes cheap again.  We would need a bit bigger decline so it has no more time to hit another new record top in 2018!

Hits: 51

TSLA Record High Update

This may be my last posting regarding Tesla as it may delist and go private. SpaceX is already private and TSLA may soon join SpaceX. The short players have been getting burned as close to 31% of the entire TSLA float has been shorted. Investopedia is an excellent site to get information about any market meanings and technical indicators.

They do a big spread about TSLA short players and how they get squeezed. Still TSLA is also approaching a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, but we may never find out if we can’t get private price charts on TSLA. Many companies have delisted in the past so it’s not that uncommon.

The Gold/Tsla ratio is a bit better at 3.4:1, down from an extreme of 1.13:1. I’m sure TSLA stock will not hold up, and sooner or later it will take out my 4th wave support at the $140 price level.

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Facebook Is Not Going To The moon!

Just in case FB investors don’t know, but Facebook is doomed just like all other Nasdaq related stocks. Facebook is running out of people as even the younger crowd is bored with it. After all how many cat and dog tricks are there? This rally that could be just finishing is just another bearish rally, but a small one to boot. If such a small counter rally can get the FB bulls all excited again, then they are pretty easy to fool on any counter rally of larger degree levels. Still, even if I had the available cash I personally would not short FB, Apple or any other popular stock, that many are also trying to short. TSLA also has an open gap, below present prices.

Elon Musk thinks he is bigger than the entire market, as he is constantly fighting the TSLA bears with his own stock purchases.

 

Hits: 10

Apple: Another Price Peak?

This morning Apple hit another price peak before it reversed. Any new record high could be the last record high that may take decades before it is ever achieved again. Warren Buffet is sitting on a big pile of cash, and that alone should be a warning that stock market investors should be building up cash positions. Just about every tech titan have massive cash positions, so they are already to buy low once the opportunity arises again. The peak seems to be $209.50 so far and Apple would have to crash to $190 to close off this huge gap. By any metric you want to use all the markets are in the biggest inflated stock market in history and when it gets serious in correcting, prices will head south.

Even the Warren Buffet indicator is flashing serious downside warnings as it shows extreme valuations. The Gold/Apple ratio also created a new record high at 5.84:1 this morning so.  The lower the price of gold goes and Apple does not follow, then this Gold/Apple ratio will only get worse.

I’m sure you are reading about all the share buy back programs being implimented, with Apple being no exception. I think company initiated buyback programs rips off all those rich investors as it is a clear signal that they can waste their money buying their own shares back at world record highs.  All their trying to do is manipulate their own stocks higher to appease rich investors.  The amount of money big corporations spend to prop up their share price, Apple alone could have launched a mission to mars many times over, and even stop of on Titian for a little sidetrip. 🙂 Hey, I would love to see that Apple Logo on a big Falcon 9 heavy rocket.

When high tech companies start paying dividends, then this company is signaling that, “Hey we got so much money we don’t know what to do with our cash”! So they give cash away to investors, who do and have done absolutely “nothing” to enhance the company itself.  Did investors work on the production line? No, they are leaches and are just along for the ride. If investors ride along with a trillion dollar company, then how much will they lose once Apple stock crashes by 70%?

Running with the bulls is dangerous, as it takes nothing to get trampled to death by the herd!

High inflated stock prices, ridiculous high real estate prices is not good for anyone escpecially for the younger generations. 2-3 years from now I’m sure we will have a new reality that no one expects today. Deflation is the real threat to investors and the Fed is fighting the very same inflation that they created in the first place.

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BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cycle Degree Peak 2007-2018 Review

 

If Warren Buffet keeps buying blue chip stocks then I would say he just about owns the DJIA with all his holdings. He bought into many stocks at record highs, with Apple being one of the biggest buys at record highs. Invest with the herd and you die by the herd, so I fully expect BRK.A to crash right along with all other indices around the world. The world is going into a major deflationary crash, which even Warren Buffet is powerless to stop. It will not surprise me to eventually see BRK below the $100,000 price level.

That is only the middle of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree as sometimes they push even lower, like the markets did in the 2009 bottom. Only the rich can play this game as the rich own 80% of the markets. Real Estate prices around the world are crashing already, as the rich can no longer afford to hang on to investment properties where prices  are falling faster than leaves of a maple tree in the fall!  Top smart money mangers have already sent letters to thier clients warning them. My friends and family members will watch it on the 6’oclock news this fall.

It is the world fertility crash that is going to completley change this world to a deflationary world. Our dying boomer generation are permanent sellers of real estate and they may even have several or more empty homes to get rid off.  For those than can wait 3 years or so, they will see a different stock, gold and housing landscape, from anything imaginable today.

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Apple 10 Day Mother Of All Gaps!

About the only “FAANG” stock to still take a hit is Apple. Every hedge fund loves this stock and Warren Buffet owns billions of shares. The huge open gap to the upside is more like an exhaustion gap, and it will get filled again. Facebooks gap may never get closed as these growth stories do come to screeching halts and even disappear!

Yes, I’m very bearish on all asset classes except for the US dollar. The world investors are sitting on a Death Cross that they know little about, and they may wake up once the stock markets crash right along with gold.  I keep gold ratios on about 10-15 asset classes which are all in-house indicators that tell me when any asset class is out line, to the cash price of gold. This Gold/Apple ratio now sits at a ratio of 6:1 the most expensive reading in my records. For the last 2 months it’s been under 7:1, so that tells me the Gold/Apple ratio is hitting a brick wall!  Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes and Apple is no different.

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Apple Stock Breaks New Record Highs!

Last month, Apple’s stock chart started to go vertical and is now forming a spike. I use one trend line which touches close to 3 peaks, and now is on its 4th peak. All this under the anticipation of the iPhone X  release.  This is nothing new that hasn’t happened many times before. What’s just a bit different than any other time is that all major stock indices in the USA, are also at world record highs this past week.

Apple’s charts have diagonal qualities to them so I used zigzags with this wave count.  Sooner or later every bull market will start to act like nothing can take it down,  so investors feel “Safe” inside the herd of investors. The VIX confirms this, as it also crashed to another extreme new low price.  The Apple $200 price forecast is pretty common, but that is a safe forecast.

How deep or long of a correction Apple will have, all depends on the degree of correction, that we may see in the next few years. Any bottom trend line would be pretty useless as it would only touch one point while the top has 4 touch points. There are two major price bottoms of $89 and $55 which we can use, but they are just visible targets on the charts.

Insiders left a long time ago and they are not rushing in to buy. What really stands out, but few will ever know about or even use is the Gold/Apple ratio. The cash, gold price divided by Apple’s stock price, will give you the amount of shares you can buy with one gold ounce.

At this peak the Gold/Apple ratio has hit a record extreme of 7.5:1. This is the most compressed number since I have been tracking this ratio, and it shows how expensive it is when we use real money. Sorry, Bitcoin is not real money, it’s invisible speculation money.

Apple could be at a wave 3 top in Cycle degree as its ability to innovate are being hampered. At a minimum Apple could hit that $85-90 price level again, which is barely a 50% correction. The $150 and $140 price level also needs watching as that could supply short term support.

The only important support is the price that will kick of a new bull market, and nobody knows where that may end.

Harry Dent has forecasted a DJIA 5000 price level to come, and Apple is part of that. So when the big markets start to crash will Apple stock holders be,  “safe”? I doubt it very much.

Making a DJA forecast of 5000 means little if we can’t forecast the bull market that will be sure to follow. Besides, there is “NO” previous bull market support down at the 5000 price level.

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Facebook Record High Bubble Review

I just couldn’t resist looking at Facebook’s stock pattern. Just like many others they all seemed to be in bubble territory. If we jump back in time to the 2012 bottom and start to look up the wave structure, we see the pattern of an impulse. Well, it may start out like that, but it falls apart rather quickly at about $50. 

I look at it as a diagonal wave structure where the first wave was a zigzag. The higher the stock price travelled the uglier the patterns became. The chances are extremely high that Facebook had a diagonal 5th wave bull market ending at a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree.  The bottom of 2011 was the start of the stock mania in the general markets, with FB following about a year or so later. 

I show a huge gap at about the $25 price level. This gap only shows up when I set my frequency at Bigcharts to a daily setting. Once I switch the same chart to a weekly frequency, then the gaps miraculously disappear. Seeing and taking note of gaps is very important from my perspective. They say that 90% of all gaps eventually get closed… I would be the last guy to argue that point.

It may seem unbelievable at first, but you have to remember that we could be heading into what will be called a bear market. I have to call it a Cycle degree 4th wave correction and it is just part of a much bigger bull market yet to come. (After 2021)

Some single stocks may never regain their former glory after a high degree bear market, as some may just simply disappear. 

The Gold/FB ratio is now the most expensive since I have been keeping records. I don’t have that many records, but enough  to have some target ratios we can use.  This ratio stands at 7.52:1,  which means you can only buy 7.52 shares with one ounce of gold. At its low point you could buy 100 shares with one ounce of gold. This is a pretty extreme shift, and not until this ratio has started to shift back to bigger numbers, and we hear news of insider buying, then FB will remain extremely risky. 

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Apple Cycle Degree Review

I’m going to throw another Apple wave count at you, which many of the free members, may not understand. It is the dedicated few that have followed me for years that will have a better understanding when I talk about expanded patterns. The potential for an expanded top is always present, as part of any corrective wave, and I think Apples stock pattern can fit this bill with ease.

No, we are not going into some SC, or GSC degree bear market, as nobody has ever confirmed that those two degree levels have completed anywhere, since the market peaks in 2000. Any wave count will not make sense if we don’t know when one pattern ends and another pattern starts. In May of 2016 Apple created its lowest low and then started to soar pushing to a new all time record price of $156.

Isn’t this a No-brainer simple set of 5 waves up?  Well… Not after you take a closer look.  The entire rally lasted a bit over 12 months before it started to reverse.  The probability of a zigzag going to new record highs as part of an expanded pattern is real,  if we consider that a bigger diagonal force is also in effect. We do have perfect alternation between the A5 wave and the C5 wave, which is exactly what I like to see in zigzags.

The 5 waves leading to the “A” wave in Minor degree are far bigger than those little skinny 5 wave sequences that soared to new record highs. Zigzags like this can and do show up in any diagonal pattern, and we should always look for alternating patterns, between the two sets of 5 waves. 

Another zigzag may start of long and skinny, but then switch to bigger, overlapping set of choppy waves. This keeps us scratching our heads, wondering what’s going on.  The thing is we don’t always see them early enough, and even when we do see them, it’s hard to believe that what we’re seeing is actually real! 

I deliberately did not start the wave count going down, as it is easy to count as the start of 5 waves and wave 4 has just completed.  Since we have 4 short waves, the 5th wave could extend.  

My bet is that this starting bearish phase is another diagonal, where our present rally would be a wave 2 and not a 4th wave rally. This makes a huge difference in the count, especially if we need to decline 5 waves in Minor degree.

The horizontal lines are price levels, where 3 of the biggest gaps will get closed. These can all become temporary support in a bigger bearish phase. Apple’s price would eventually have to retrace that entire “A” wave bottom, after which we may land on an “A” wave in Primary degree.

The next bearish phase could all go sideways and down, with no clear 5 wave sequence decline. This would then send a signal that the big wave counts need another review.

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Apple, Bull Market Crash Update

 

The Apple chart above was my last update from May 21, 2017 when I figured another major top could be coming soon.

I can’t always remember the exact wave count from a month ago, so I have to look back to see where the wave count last finished at.   In this case the top wave 5 in Intermediate degree is still holding.

What followed was a very dramatic move down. This move down can also work as an “ABC” decline leading to a potential wave one of a set of diagonal waves.  We are coming off one of the biggest world tech bubbles, the likes of what happen in 2000 when the  “Dot Com Era”  came to an abrupt end.  Of course, Apple was walking to a different drummer as well, and if we were paying attention at that time, Apple was just in a big correction.  I can’t always give readers a complete update on Apple as I try and stay away from analyzing single stocks.

I do it because I’m a big fan of Apple products and I own three or more of their products which I use  everyday. 

We also have a big gap still open below present prices, which could work as a strong temporary support area. It’s not rocket science that when a stock price dips, all the bad news becomes front page news.  The fear of not selling enough iPhones is all it takes, sending Apple investors into a panic. In reality, it’s just a bunch of algorithms gone rouge.  :roll: Not too many traders that are nimble with their mouse clicks, can keep up to a fast downward move like Apple made. 

Computer trading works in milliseconds, and can also produce many of the gaps we see.  Last month the Gold/Apple ratio was hitting extreme readings of just under 8:1 which broke every record that I have calculated since 2016. 

Not until the Gold/Apple ratio starts to improve by the ratio getting wider ratio will it be logical to even think about buying Apple shares. I can’t give specific buy recommendations, but I’m sure readers will see me become very bullish again. 

Mind you it may take several years before that can happen. In the meantime, all we can do is track Apple’s progress,  trying to  confirm any bearish decline. 

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Apple Record High Update

Last week the Apple stock price once again broke a new world record at $156.65, but has now backed off a bit from this extreme high. In a fit of madness we could see another record high, but the odds of that happening are becoming less  and less. Apple is also close to a  potential Cycle degree wave three top, after which we should expect a 3 wave bear market, of some type. Flat, zigzag, or a triangle is always one of our three choices, for any correction, but we have to do some Sherlock Holmes deductive reasoning, figuring out which pattern will have the best odds of coming true. 

A triangle is my last option, and a flat would be my first option.  Since I view all the markets from a Cycle degree perspective, we have to look to the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree,  to find a potential bottom for a Cycle degree wave 4. 

The May 2016 low is not the previous 4th wave  of  one lesser degree as  it may be way back in mid 2013 that Apple stock,  may have to correct down to. This is centered around another huge open gap down at the $55 price level.  Even before Apple can ever reach those bearish extremes, it  still has to crash through two huge open gaps first.  Those gaps may provide some very good reversal positions for a “B” wave rally, but we will not know until we get close. 

Sure, I love Apple products and do all my work and play with them, but that does not stop me from being very bearish,  in the longer term. 

The Gold/Nasdaq ratios have been hitting extremes, with the  Gold/Apple ratio also bouncing around at the extremes.  The Gold/Apple ratio sits at 8.20:1, which is a bit cheaper now, but this ratio has a long way to go before Apple becomes cheaper to the point it can become a long term hold again.

We need a very obvious mood change with this Apple chart,  and that happens when Apple makes an obvious move, pointing south.  

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Apple Soars Crossing the $150 Price Level. Is It A Warren Buffet rally?

 

 

In the last few years Apple was inflicted with the “Bear Market Disease”.  This bearish phase lasted about 17-18 months before Apple  turned and soared again. 

News reports show that Warren Buffet has been buying Apple stock,  while insiders have sold out.   Warren Buffet and Apple are two of the biggest elephants in the room, and it would not surprise me that the Warren Buffet group created this bull market in the first place.  Buying into a stock that has just broken all Gold/Apple extreme expensive ratios again,  just does not make any sense to a contrarian analyst like me.  Investors just love to buy high and then get out after the price crashes.  The Gold/Apple ratio is sitting at 8.20:1  which is one of the lowest recordings this year. 

For my readers you can say that Warren Buffet is buying Apple shares close to a Cycle degree wave 3 top?  There is no way that Apple can stay “Up”,  if the rest of the markets execute a big swan dive. The Apple stock is everywhere, and it is only a matter of debate, at which bull market bottom this Apple stock can find support.  An exact top is always a problem 

We have more gaps in Apple that must be breaking a record as well.  The last 5th wave is the extended wave as they are small but also contain gaps. The last 5 waves up, could also be a “C” wave so in this case  it makes little difference. 


Updated May, 9, 2017

This morning gold plunged and Apple shares charged through the $150 per share price level.  This briefly pushed  the Gold/Apple ratio into a new expensive record when using gold as money. This ratio touched 7.85:1 which is the most expensive ratio since I have been tracking with the Apple stock price. 

The recent Apple, and US dollar rally combined with a gold price plunge, confirms that, “Stock Mania” is still hanging around.  

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Apple Intermediate Degree Review: A Perfect Fibonacci $144

 

 

Apple has pushed into all time record highs, with the added bonus of achieving the $144 Fibonacci number. What else can we wish for as I love it when markets turn at whole Fibonacci numbers.  In any potential Cycle degree wave IV bear market,  I’m sure we could see the $89 and maybe the $55 price level again. 

We have at least 3 easy to see gaps, that are open below present prices, and it would not surprise me when all these gaps get filled in the next 2-3 years. 

When it comes to the Gold/Apple ratio we are sitting at the extreme ratio of 8.67:1. This means that gold will only buy 8.67 shares of AAPL, which is one of the most expensive readings I have calculated so far.  To stay long with these readings is just asking for trouble, as the markets will swing back to a point when Apple becomes cheaper again. The Nasdaq has also pushed to new record highs, so it stands to reason that Apple followed along.   

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Apple Chart 2015-2017 And The Gold/Apple Ratio Review

 

 

Apple has made an impressive move, but when you look at the present pattern high, it is a long and skinny pattern that switched to smaller wave subdivisions. This is typical of one part of a zigzag and I have to count it as such.  With wave 3 in Intermediate degree ending in early 2015, then we have to look for the correction  that is supposed to follow.

Since they are all diagonal waves can overlap with the “ABC” heading down.  From the May 2016 bottom Apple took off  with all rocket engines firing. Well, most of them. Enough to launch, Apple stock into space  one more time.

A “C” wave bull market like this cannot be maintained and sooner or later it has to slump. This could be a Cycle degree slump, so some little 20% pullback is not going to cut it.  This Apple chart has many open gaps below so in reality there is nothing holding it up.

All this action made Apple more expensive if we look at how many Apple shares can we buy with one ounce of USD priced gold.

At this time you can only buy 8.79 shares with gold, which is another extreme, Gold/Apple ratio reading since I started record them on the way up.

In the long term I’m sure Apple will retrace all of this diagonal 5th wave bull market, and more when it comes to push and shove of extreme emotions.

The idea that the markets work on logic is just a myth from my perspective, as they run on pure emotional power and a bunch of liquidity.

Even Al Gore an insider, has sold Apple shares and he is not the only one that has been selling. Yet when we look at the analysts’ recommendations the majority has a buy rating on Apple. Some hold recommendations, but no sell recommendations.  This is very common as I have documented this many times with other single stocks.  This will never change as analysts take the average Joe to the cleaners every time.

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Is The Apple Stock Mania Over?

 

 

 In the last few days Apple has been slowing down after a fantastic run which started mid 2016. Half of 2015 was mostly a correction year matching the general stock market indices.  I matched 2015 with an Intermediate degree correction, which was followed by a bullish phase that had diagonal wave structures in it, but it also works great as another zigzag for a diagonal 5th wave. The two 5 wave sections are different sizes and I see that as being pretty normal. Same with all the other general markets,  Apple should also be facing a Cycle degree meltdown. A Cycle degree 4th wave meltdown, consisting of 3 waves in Primary degree. 

A flat or a zigzag is unknown at this time, but there are more open gaps below present prices,  that the Apple stock chart looks like Swiss Cheese. I’m sure that the 2016 low will not hold, except for a short term period, as a Cycle degree correction would be far more bearish in the long run.  

The important thing that we need to watch for is the type of pattern Apple will make on the way down, as I see lots of room for Apple’s stock price to fall.

There is another gap at about the $75 price level so this level could present extreme support.  The Gold/Apple ratio hit another extreme, and today it was 9.2:1, and the most extreme I have ever calculated.  

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Is Apple Going For Another Record In The History Books?

 

 

The Apple price chart is only a few dollars away from breaking all time new record highs. It blasted right through the gap,  at the $130 price level, with another recent gap.  So the gap at $130 never really closed this time.  From the 2016 low we now have two major open gaps to think about, with a third gap way down at the $75 price level. I still may be too high with my degree levels, but this sure looks like a 5th wave bullish phase that is going for a blow-off.

The Gold/Apple ratio has gone insane just a bit more, and has now reached an all time ratio record high of 9.38:1. Jumping on this Apple bandwagon is just asking for severe punishment, as you could end up being the greatest fool holding another falling paper asset.  As I have mentioned in the past, any gold ratio is a more objective way of looking at stocks, but the world does not use objective indicators.  With the Gold/Apple ratio being this high it is insane to think that Apple is a good investment at these price levels.

The Apple chart looks more like Swiss Cheese with the amount of holes in it. Not until the Gold/Apple ratio starts to spread again, closer to 21:1 or so, when it “might” get ready for a lower risk investment. Of course, this is when Apple will be much lower in price, and we know how much the majority hate to buy low.  Most people don’t even know why they are buying Apple stock, because most only care that it keeps going up.

I’m sure there is a ton of sell stops below all present prices, and once they get triggered all the selling of iPhones in the world will mean nothing.

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.A Who Are These Smart Investors that Love To Buy High?

 

 

It looks like BRK.A has topped out a bit over $250,000 per share.   With only about 117 shares traded, this sure puts Bekshire share holders into an elite club.  When we go to that December high and ask what he was thinking when he bought a single share of this stock?  He has been brainwashed by Buffet to hold for a long time, but how does he feel once $10,000 has already gone up in smoke?

This stock holder is going to feel a lot worse once this stock price hits $200,000 or lower.  Last month it took well over 221 ounces of gold just to buy one share of BRK.A. I would have to check back to see how cheap BRK.A was when it was at a bottom in 2009 to make a fair comparison.  

I believe that a Cycle degree wave III could have completed, and if that is the case, the previous 4th wave I show, will definitely not offer Cycle degree bottom support. It may take until Berkshire Hathaway falls to $110,000 for a bear market bottom to manifest itself.  

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Apple Bear Market Crash Review

 

aapl-nov-5-2016

 

On my last Apple posting, I was very bearish, and was anticipating a top. The market has helped to confirm this bearish outlook, so what happens now?  Nobody knows where this AAPL decline will stop at, as the bearish fundamentals are lagging indicators. Since early May 2015, Apple has been in a bear market and the fundamental news stories, are just starting to catch up. 

Don’t get me wrong, I love Apple products, but when the price turns bearish, there is no amount of iPhones  that they can sell, to reverse a stock price slide. 

When the wave count is not clear, I also use the Gold/Apple ratio to calculate how expensive or cheap, the Apple stock price really is.  One such extreme ratio worked out to about 11.8:1 which was exceeded recently when the ratio hit 10.8:1. Rounding things off a bit, we can use 11:1 as a very expensive Gold/Apple ratio.  On this Friday that ratio dipped back to 11.8:1 still making it extremely expensive. This is a toxic stock, and it will remain that way until the Gold/Apple ratio starts to tell us, that the Apple stock price is starting to get cheap again. We don’t want fair value, we want to see a consistent ratio heading towards 22:1. It may never reach that ratio, but the majority will hate that stock, when the price becomes low again.

This may not happen until the price falls well below the $90 price level. It may also go and close that big gap at $75.  Investors that buy too early, are going to feel a lot of pain, as the Apple bears are slashing at all those Apple bulls.  Running with the bulls is a dangerous sport as the majority, are starting to find out. 

In a Cycle degree correction, we must expect the shine to come off a great company. I knew the game was up when Apple started to pay dividends.  Paying dividends, stock buy back programs, all signals that Apple does not know what to do with its cash. 

Checking with the analysts’ recommendations, they have a very high recent “Buy” recommendation.  I’m sure that sooner or later, they will have a “sell” recommendation, so when that happens, chances are good that the Apple stock price, would be getting closer to a bottom. 

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Apple, Potential Bull Trap?

 

 

aapl-oct-23-2016

 

 Yes, there is always a chance that this Apple stock will still go to the moon, but if we look at the pattern we could get a surprise move in the next few months. I’m sure this will not be an upside breakout, but more like a downside breakout.  I would not even dream about counting it out this way, but in a diagonal world we can have insane moves that does not seem logical from any perspective.  

Those insane moves are normal when the markets are switching directions. It looks like Apple can keep going, but it will head south if only one wave position is right. If wave 3-4 is a flat or it even is a triangle, then any inverted move should get retraced by 100%.  A near perfect bull trap would be the icing on the cake.

Any wave count is not perfect, but what other indicators can we use to check if AAPL is expensive or not.  Conventional indicators may even be telling us that APPL is cheap at these price levels.

This is the perfect time to take a Gold/Apple ratio calculation. My Gold/Apple ratio history is slim at best, but I have one extreme expensive ratio and one extremely cheap Gold/Apple ratio.

Today the Gold/Apple ratio calculated at 10.8:1, which means you can only buy 10.8 shares with one US Dollar gold ounce.  That sure does not look like a cheap stock to me, so I checked with my maximum. This was 11.8:1! Yikes!, that sure makes this Apple stock extremely expensive when we use gold as money. 

Of course the chart has some pretty big gaps in it as well, which I’m sure will come back and haunt all these bullish investors.  

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AAPL, Apple 2010-2016 Primary Degree Review.

 

aapl-sept-25-2016

 

A few postings ago I had a vision that the Apple stock pattern may have ended. Something ended alright, but I think it was one degree lower in Primary degree.  I looked at it from the 2002 bottom with a diagonal perspective, due to the extreme choppy pattern  of the waves. It started with the Flash Crash Of 2010.  The first peak in 2012, is now my “A” wave in Intermediate degree. The second peak in 2012, is an expanded “B” wave top, followed by a bear market, (or bull market correction). From the 2013 bottom Apple started to go into a bullish phase that seemed to have topped in mid 2015, along with many other indices. I did not have room to draw in the highest degree at the 2015 top, but it is now a wave 3 in Primary degree.

Our present so called bear market, would actually just be a bull market correction.  There is no way of knowing exactly what location we are at, at this time, but this is where we start the process of eliminating what will not work. All three of my corrective patterns can still be in progress so this will take time to sort out.

One thing is certain this AAPL chart would have to point down when this correction gets close to finishing again. Right now I’m working Apple as a single zigzag but this can also develop into a triangle.   Apple is a great company, but that does not mean that it can never develop a bearish phase, where they all give up on it.  At the recent 2016 bottom, funds unloaded their shares as they though Apple was done for. Expert fund managers or hedge fund managers selling at a bottom is very normal, as they are doing the same thing as the retail investor does.  Of course stories about Warren Buffet buying Apple stock may have changed some fund manager’s minds. Buy, High and Sell Low, is what the majority does, which is the opposite of what any contrarian would think about doing.

All this helps to confirm that a 4th wave decline in the main indices can still be in our future.

I have to build a new gold/apple ratio to get the extremes, but right now we are sitting at 11.8:1 This seemed a bit expensive, so I checked against the 2013 prices when Apple was very low at the $55 range. This worked out to 21.8:1 on the cheap side.  If we get a gold/apple ratio below 9-10:1 then this would make Apple much more expensive. We need to take three or more readings to get a better picture of the extremes 

If this ratio spreads then Apple’s price is getting cheaper when compared to gold. I only use the gold futures cash price as my base, and I round it off a bit for simplicity’s sake. 

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Apple, 2002-2016 Price Review From A Diagonal Perspective.

 

aapl-sept-21-2016

 

This is the second time I looked at the Apple bull market from a diagonal perspective. It is very easy to count out the chart using impulse wave labels, but obvious or easy waves are mostly a figment of our imaginations, especially if we are oblivious to anything diagonal related.  The 2002 would match the bottom of the market crash in 2002, followed by a zigzag bull market to top of 2007. Then this big crash of 2008 produced another zigzag which proved to be one of the best buying times in Apple, that may never be repeated again. At that time I saw Apple producing a potential correction, which did not jive  with any super degree wave counts.

From very late 2008, and a potential wave 2 bottom, it did not take long for the waves to start getting very choppy. It got worse after the 2010 Apple crash, after which the choppy waves really started to kick in. That move sent us to the second 2012 peak,  before Apple started another major decline. Everybody thought the Apple bull party was over, but Apple didn’t want anything to do with that, after which it started another leg up to the 2015 peak. 

This presently would put Apple in a 4th wave bear market, but bear markets are just big corrections to a higher degree. Needless to say I will be running Apple with a 2015 wave 3 Primary degree top.  I show a single zigzag decline, but this would make a major bottom far too early at this time. Apple would also have to keep the upward pressure going, if the 4th wave bottom has actually already completed. 

Any single “C” wave crash, would also produce a bigger spike to the downside which it did not do in 2016. We sure got a wild spike at the mid 2015 bottom, but this could be an “A” wave. This still leaves Apple with three core corrective patterns that need to get trashed one at a time,  which will eventually narrow down our choices. 

I can still move my “A” wave peak to the early 2012 peak, which gives us an expanded pattern. I already counted it as an expanded top several times, so that would not be a stretch to do again.  

Anything from Apple’s early years seems to command top dollars in the collector world as the stock certificate story clearly shows.

Several of early Apple computers  also demand top dollar. 

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AAPL, Apple Stock 2015-2016 Review: Bull Traps Bite!

 

aapl-sept-16-2016

 

If you notice I have pushed the Cycle degree wave 3 back in time to the 2015 peak.  This is the same as travelling forward in time, but we can only do it on paper.  I could be completely wrong with this wave count, but I have to run it, to make or break it. The first crash down into 2015 which ended on a big long spike could be the “A” wave in Intermediate degree I need. Then the counter rally, which ended up being another fake, was the “B” wave top in Intermediate degree followed by 5 waves down in Minor degree.

Now that works as a pretty normal zigzag decline for me, which ended in May 2016. Ever since then Apple has been on a rip roaring bullish phase, that has now gone vertical last week.   When charts go vertical they can usher in bear markets that will surprise us, especially if Apple starts to head straight down again.  We will hear the analysts screaming that support has been broken again, but price is only important if we don’t look at the pattern. 

The thing is, the bullish phase that started from the May bottom, only counts out as 7 waves, and it works as a 3-3-5 count as well. Something is going to happen soon!  Apple could crash or decline back down towards the $90 price level, and then turn in another “C” wave bull market, 5 waves long!  Those 5 waves, would be in Minor degree, but could terminate at the “B” wave top that I would be looking for. I like to joke that all wave counts are a myth created in our minds, like dragons were a myth back centuries ago. Until wave counts are confirmed nothing is as real as it seems.  

This is the second posting that I am working the Cycle degree wave 3 position along with the Russell 2000.  There may be more to come once I review the others again.  I can’t do that all at once, as I cover more asset classes than most. Single stocks are at the bottom of the list. Where Apple goes, the rest of the market is sure to follow and the fear of the lack of lineups at stores can be a bad omen pushed by conventional analysts. Going online and ordering is the reason why there were no line ups in this year’s iPhone release. What a silly ego statement it is to see people lined up for a mass produced product anyway.

The last thing I would be,  is bullish with this Apple pattern, so  investors are going to see how bad, bull traps can bite. 

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Is The Apple Pokemon Go Bubble Going To Burst?

Pokemon Go sets Apple App Store record for launch downloads, but US growth slowing


AAPL-July-24-2016

 

The Pokemon Go game has gone wild in the past few weeks and has broken records at the app store!  Does the recent Apple stock rally reflect this launch? Of course I had to try the game just to see what all the excitement was about, but I think I will get bored pretty quick.  

Since April 2015 Apple has been in a bear market, as it has consistently been grinding downward, with breath taking rallies thrown in, to keep investors excited. Yes, we have big open gaps above our present Apple prices, and they may remain open for a long time yet.

At this time I use the 2015 peak as an unknown wave position, as there are always 5 potential choices we can have. These 5 choices are always specific to the degree we think we are working in. Since the majority of the markets seems to be made of diagonal waves, applying the same to this Apple stock makes sense.  Look how many waves overlap in this bear market.  We would have trouble finding some pure impulse waves, except for a few very small runs.  

There are very few differences between a triple zigzag run, and the Diagonal5 wave structure that I use. To help confirm triple zigzags, (1,3,5) with two main intervening corrections, we should end up with a count of 5, sometime in the future. We need this AAPL stock to break another new low, and that sure would help to keep this wave count going. Of course I will have to adjust it along the way, but if any, real unexpected radical move happens, I will trash my wave count in record time.  Many times a trashed wave count just goes into hibernation for awhile, and it can come back and continue to be a very valid wave count.

I love these diagonal wave patterns, and it makes it more interesting when we can spot them early enough to confirm them.  Wave counting is the secondary act, as we have to “see” the patterns first, before we can count them out. “Wave Counting” is just the process, we have to go through, to confirm what we think we are seeing. If you think that this sounds stupid, then think back to when RN Elliott had to “see” the patterns first, before he could count them out! 🙂

All my wave counts are fresh everytime I post, as the last thing I want is to drag an error filled wave count with me, year in and year out.  

Hits: 5

Berkshire Hathaway, Post Brexit Stock Pattern Review

 

BRK-June-28-2016

 

Any type of a “big” expected down cycle, would have a huge impact on Warren Buffet’s BRK.A stock. Hell, he owns many parts of the biggest names in the Dow, which includes Apple stock.  Since late 2014 BRK started on its bear market, which hit bottom in early 2016, right along with gold. 

In the wake of the Brexit vote BRK crashed alright, but it left a huge gap as it dropped. Now if this was part of a zigzag, or a flat, it would still indicate that BRK still has much more room to move up. This would be  out of sync with all the bearish wave counts. Matter of fact, most of all the single Dow companies are not compatible with a 5 wave decline in Primary degree. 

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Apple 2012-2016 Elliott Wave Count Review

 

I find it hard to believe that Apple would go up while the main indices that Apple is in, are crashing down. Apple is the big elephant in the room and chances are good that Apple stock is more of a leading indicator than a lagging indicator.  Apple would have to implode if we were already in the “big one”.  All the super bears are looking for a recession much worse than 2008, and all the SC and GSC degree wave counters are looking for their 5 waves down in Primary degree. Keep looking folks, as you will never find the great SC and GSC degree wave count. Those high degree wave counts are in the future by a few decades and in reality SC and GSC degree wave counters are  chasing dragons in a mythical world.  They created these high degree wave counts because many chart patterns have been “forced” into a higher degree. All it takes is one wave count that is forced and we end up slipping into a higher degree, when in fact it is in a much lower degree.

Every corrective wave for any degree must have a certain amount of wave patterns that must show up, otherwise we are not in the degree we think we are in.  This is not rocket science, but it is taken from the EWP book and the idealized wave patterns.  Simply put, if you have never seen or counted a 5 wave declining sequence in Primary degree, then it’s impossible for any of  the markets to be anywhere near a SC or GSC degree wave count.

 

AAPL-June-17-2016

 

I moved my 2012 peak up as this chart could have ended with diagonal patterns up, to the Intermediate degree wave three.  If I showed you just one degree higher, I would then be painting you a SC or GSC degree world. Of course, all the wave positions would have to be changed to keep the wave count in sequence.

From the 2012 peak Apple started a bearish phase, which came to a screeching halt in April 2012, with the secondary bottom coming a few months later in June. From my perspective the 2012-2013 decline was a bull market correction, as it was completely retraced by more than 100%. 

The differences between these two double bottoms is critical to understand as that started off another massive bullish phase for Apple’s stock price.  This 2012-2015 bullish run sure looks like an impulse, and it stretched (extended) allowing the smaller degrees to show up. The angle of the bull market also helps to see it as an impulse.

At the very top in 2015 we have a crazy pattern that I counted as the first part of an expanded flat, ending with a huge down spike in August 2015. Then we had a good rally into November 2015 before Apple resumed its decline which I am calling a “C” wave impulse. 

In May of 2016 AAPL hit another bottom at about $90, before it started to crank back up. In May of 2016 we could have hit a 4th wave bottom in Minor degree.  If this is the case, then Apple’s chart should still soar.  Technically it would have to soar and make all time new record highs. We have 3 huge gaps that are still open above our present prices and eventually, all of them will get filled again.  We could also draw a nice wedge for this bear market, which usually means a violent reversal can happen. 

Everybody treats the Apple chart like it is in a bear market, but from a Cycle degree perspective, it is just a big bull market correction.  The $90 price level has meaning as Apple has pivoted around this number several times before. Is Apple confirming that stocks still have a bullish phase in them, or are we going to use the excuse, “It’s Different this time”?

Even Warren Buffet bought Apple stock last month, so this also adds to the bullish case. It would be a wave counting horror show if we created a wave count, contrary to a successful contrarian.  🙂 

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Review

 

BRK-June-15-2016

 

Warren Buffet owns much of the DOW so BRK.A can also travel the same way.  Since late 2015 BRK has created a bear market wave count that is impossible to get into an impulse pattern. This puts BRK into a corrective pattern which may not be finished. The blast up from the February lows would be the expanded flat “C” wave bull market and BRK would have to fall below 2016 lows one more time, for this to get confirmed. 

The other choice is that BRK created a triangle decline, which would send BRK soaring. There is little wiggle room for this chart  pattern as breaking to new highs will kill this bearish pattern very quickly. 

Hits: 2

Quick Apple Update: Crashing Like A Zeppelin!

 

AAPL-May-15-2016

 

Apple’s stock chart has rolled over a long time ago, as the trend lines show.  If the markets are on a general Primary degree “C” wave decline, so why should AAPL not do the same thing?  In a bearish phase all the ugly news will become front and center,  so if AAPL continues south, then expect more bad news.  This will be news that the mainstream dream up, but recent news from the Apple Insider, sure still look good. Apple still dominates, and overall it is a good company. 

AAPL could be of the same type of a path as the general stock market is, but where and when it will bottom is next to impossible to estimate. With all the buy backs and stock splitting antics we could be dealing with new numbers that will stun us, in how cheap AAPL stock can get.  Going back to 2007, at what previous gully (bottom) is apple going to stop at.  Any expanded flat type move will definitely send AAPL back to record highs but we would go broke in trying to stay in to see that happen.

Until we hear news about insider buying, investing in this stock price, will be a disaster. I am sure we will see the $70 price yet, as a huge gap will be closed by then, and even $30 is not ruled out. 

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Apple Bull And Bear Market Review 2012-2016

 

AAPL-May-3-2016

 

Single stock Elliott Wave Counts are not at the top of my list of things to cover, but Apple is inside the DOW and the SP500 and it will go where they go. Or is it the other way around, that Apple is holding up all stock markets from crashing.  For the last month, Apple has crashed in a near vertical decline which is much like a “C” wave would act.

Since the bottom of February I was counting it as a 4th wave, but now it would have to be called a diagonal 4th wave as it ran too far and started to overlap a bunch of important waves.   We have about 4 open gaps on the way down and they would eventually have to get filled again. Please do not take that as a sure thing as these gaps can stay open for a long time, as Apple may have to sink much further. 

That rally to the April top, insiders were selling all the way up while all the analyst recommendations were overwhelmingly a “BUY” rating.  This is nothing new as I have documented this many times with other stocks. No matter where this stock may go in the short term, it is only worth investing in, if the majority of insiders, are buying. 

When they do buy it will become public information, then you may have a chance of being on the right side. If this rally is short and goes sideways, then watch out as more downside will certainly come again. 

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