Beyond Meat Crash Review!

My first try looking for a wave count fail by a wide margin which was around the $74 price level.  Retail participants don’t care about any value they just don’t want to be left behind.

If you owned BYND then you only had a 1-2 day window to unload!  Selling into the spike is the best but if you see the spike or not, all depends on how you manipulate your charts.

I think this chart is heading into a bear market as a major price peak is already in by late Friday. We have a large gap open below present prices which I think will get filled at the $100 price level.

Bear market rallies retrace themselves and we have to wait and see if BYND falls below its IPO price.

The spike high was around the $185 but the charts only quote $150.  At best the $60-$70 price level may produce some support but solar cycle 24 could be pulling Beyond Meat down as well.

Back in May, I took a Gold/BYND ratio reading which was about 18:1 with the recent ratio reading of only 7.44:1.

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Tesla $10 Price Forecast?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3465547-morgan-stanley-cuts-bear-case-tesla-10

 

It never fails that when a market goes down analysts come up with all the reasons why. A worst-case $10 price crash forecast may be a bit too radical even for my bearish outlook, but it sure would not surprise me if Tesla eventually did crash to below $40.

Everything about electric cars is overdone as supply is far exceeding demand. Tesla’s stock price was another mania move on par with the Tulip Mania.

Figuring out the top is a real challenge and I may have to adjust some diagonal wave structures which would contain the  Cycle degree wave 3 top.

Don’t get excited about this thinking to buy on the dips, because the stock can crash and fill that little gap at $40. Between $30-$40 Tesla would have good price support.

A few auto-pilot crashes sure can turn investors off and besides that TSLA is on a cash burn that it can’t maintain.

Either way the start of solar cycle 25 could send Tesla stock price soaring again.

The Gold/TSLA ratio is at 6.20:1 this morning which is a bit better than the 1.13 expensive ratio I do have. This ratio still has to spread as 6:1 is still far too expensive

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Walmart: A Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Perspective

When I first looked at this chart I freaked, as this chart is a diagonal wave structure nightmare. Staring at it for an hour or two first is necessary. This is the first look I had at WMT in years, but I think WMT is important to watch considering the trade war with China was cranked up on Wednesday.

For now, I will leave the above chart with only two trend lines where the top line touches three peaks. Once WMT crashes through the bottom trendline then we would be at one higher degree.

I believe that the 2013 peak was the end of wave 3 in Intermediate degree followed by an expanded pattern and then 5 waves down in Minute degree. The five waves down in Minute degree started at the beginning of 2015 and lasted a bit under a year.

Since the 2016 bullish start, I had trouble figuring the 5 waves as it also looks like another zigzag. Then again in early, 2018 Walmart’s stock imploded followed by yet another set of 5 waves looking like an impulse, which is labeled “A” wave in Minute degree.

From the late 2018 bottom WMT started up again but this time the C5 wave has started out with small overlapping waves. Walmart could break to new record highs but it can remain very short when we are so close to a triple top.

One worst case scenario is that the 2018 peak is the real top and we are heading up a “B” wave in Intermediate degree. I’m sure there are not daily limits with most single stocks so any “C” wave crash can move very fast and violent.

Walmart has already warned that prices could go up and shoppers will be the first to see if the shelves don’t get filled or you can’t find coffee on sale anymore.

I have no Gold/WMT ratio database setup as I have to do some back checking to get those numbers. At a 12.6:1 ratio today I’m assuming that this is an expensive Gold/WMT ratio.

 

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Quick Facebook Review

I have no love for anything related to Facebook even though the majority have been pushing the stock higher. FB has now started to back off in price gains as the problems with FB are too many to address.

If it wasn’t for all the GAPs in the FB chart I would not post anything, but this chart looks like Swiss Cheese with any GAP always having a 90% chance of getting filled.  The July 2018 GAP might never get closed no matter how much the Facebook bulls wish for it to happen.

In November/December 2018 we had a small double bottom followed by a big bounce that may all be just a big bear market rally.  In order for this 2019 rally to be part of a bear market rally then eventually, FB has to crash below the 2018 low at the $123 price level.

I don’t have much of a Gold/FB ratio database set up but today we are sitting at about 6.84:1.

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Beyond Meat, Sucking In The Green Investors!

When I heard about Beyond Meat (BYND) going public it reminded me of  Pets.com back in the dotcom bubble era. My opinions are strictly personal but imagine a company with no real sales tapping into the “green” mentality that will deliver all its vegan burgers with fossil fuels!

Even Leonardo DiCaprio, the fake “Green” has invested in this company who flies around in jets.  Next thing we may hear is that Al Gore is buying shares.

It was a very slick IPO as they timed it very well with the peak of the Nasdaq. Suck as much money as they can from investors when valuations are at their extremes already is pretty normal. There is no way in telling at this time, but insane moves can bring on more insane moves until investors get tired with a company that has no earnings but plenty of losses.

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FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. 2000-2016 Review

I try and avoid wave counting with single stocks as they can move on their own, against the main trend.  Of course, when an asset goes up we hope it will fly to the moon and make us rich!  We are looking at over 18 years of chart history where there seems to be a 7-year cycle of crashes or bearish bottoms.

A reader mentioned this stock to me so I have to warn readers that this FCX stock is just a first look using EWP but there are other patterns that are just as important to see.  Most commodities have diagonal wave structures and this FCX is no exception.

Besides the huge H&S top, we also have a big H&S pattern for the bottom at about the $3.50 price level.  The 2008-2009 crash matches the end of solar cycle 23, while the 2011 FCX peak matches the solar cycle 24 peak. The solar cycles have a huge impact on this stock, but it also alternates between attracting and repelling prices.

I didn’t have the room to fill in the 2011 peak but this sure matches many of the other Cycle degree wave 3 peaks I do have.

After the 2016 bottom, I have no wave positions labeled as we are also in a wedge that can send this stock into a nosedive just as quickly as it can break out and soar.

We do have a $10 price support level that developed in the last few years, so there may be bullish hope yet.

I have no Gold/FCX ratio database set up but readers that do follow this stock should create and maintain a Gold/FCX ratio.  I do have a few rough calculations but need to do more detailed calculations.  At the 2011 peak, the ratio was about 31:1 after which FCX crashed into the early 2016 bottom where we had a 300:1 ratio. Today the ratio is at 102:1, so FCX  can still rally.

Since I mentioned the solar cycles I added the numbers in black for quick reverence. At this time, solar cycle 24 has not completed, which may still take all of 2020 to complete.  Solar cycle 19 was the tallest for the beginning of the Space Age with solar cycle 24 being the smallest.

Many readers think following the sun cycles has no importance, but they have a very good track record driving and repelling prices.

If you’re trying to fight climate change then you are looking at the chart of the biggest culprit… our sun!

This is a very good graph of what solar cycle 25 may look like as it could also be very short.

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Apple: Bull Market or Bear Rally?

 

Last month Apple’s stock price finished to the upside.  All the dovish news about rate increases taking a break was a major surprise to investors but I said this could happen many times before as T-Bonds are in a bull market. One thing that is hard to imagine is that Apple keeps on soaring if the DJIA or SP500 heads south. There is a huge probability that an expanded bottom has been formed which seldom ever hold.

I labeled about 5 gaps with a recent gap to the upside still being open. Short term this gap will get closed, with a much bigger gap still open at the $120-$130 price level. Jumping on the Apple bandwagon after a month of bullish action, is an emotional decision, thinking we are buying on the “Dips”.  Of course, my bearish outlook can be wrong and for that to happen, we must see a correction form with “No” new record lows.

Just because an asset class goes up, does not mean it’s in a bull market. If market participants get fooled by a Minor degree rally then any Intermediate degree or Primary degree rally will really fool the majority.  I would be a lot more bullish on Apple’s stock price if there were records of insiders buying their own shares back. I read one story that Al Gore was a buyer, but I have to hunt up the article to confirm it. I believe the board wants to kick Al Gore of the team. If and when this happens I will shed no tears for Al Gore to be removed from his position.

Even before this rally Apple’s stock price was not dirt cheap when we compared it to gold. Today this Gold/Apple ratio sits at 7.91:1 which is better than the extreme ratio of 5.24:1.

I think the Gold/Apple ratio should get closer to 10:1 or even 15:1 before it may be a longer-term hold.

With the new moon coming on Monday, it can provide an extra push if the reversal is near.  I’m sure they will get their Facetime bug fixed, but it also goes to show how easy it is to hack into this digital world. The biggest threat is Artificial Intelligence, (AI) as dictators and communist countries use AI to brainwash and control them. If you think the movie “1984” is about dystopia, then what we have today is far more powerful and insidious.

 

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Apple Stock: Bear Rally Or Bull Market?

 

Last week Apple’s stock price recorded another bullish high and could still hit a price target of $160.  The huge gap to the downside has now been filled!  The question is, ” Is this rally just another bear rally or is it the real thing”?.  I tend to believe that the rally that started in January, is part of an expanded 4th wave and one more move to the downside should eventually happen.  If Apple turns down it may take all of February to accomplish, but when it does I will turn very bullish on Apple’s stock price once it hits my  potential “A” wave in Primary degree.

The hedge funds saw this Apple crash coming and it takes only a few of them to unload billions of shares swamping buyers in the process.  I’m an Apple product user but that doesn’t mean I’m permanently bullish. Earning are extremely easy to manipulate and Apple is as good as any other company that manipulates earnings.  I would be far more bullish if insider buying news filled the financial news blogs, but that has not yet happened.

As more backlogged data comes out in the next few weeks,  it could surprise many investors and set off another mini selling panic.

The Gold/Apple ratio is at 8.25:1 today which I still consider an expensive reading. The more shares we can buy with one Troy ounce of gold the better, but not until we establish a large database over some extreme cycles, will it make sense.  The cheap Gold/Apple ratio was closer to 21:1,  so we have a long way to go before that ever happens.

 

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Netflix, Impending Correction Or Crash Review!

Talk about going ballistic we have to look no further than this NFLX chart.  What Netflix is showing is more a diagonal move than an impulse move. Since the November 2018 bottom (Wave 3). Netflix created an expanded pattern which are more common than wave analysts give credit to. Our present day move has at least three open gaps which would not get closed until NFLX hits the $270 price level.  We could get another zigzag decline which could close that open gap we have back in January 2018. NFLX sure repelled from this gap, but there is still a small part of this gap open.  Ideally another new record low can happen, but we must be open to a bull trap before then.

I don’t have any  Gold/NFLX ratio database setup, but today we are sitting at a ratio of 3.81:1, which is only slightly cheaper then when NFLX was at $420 in June of 2018.

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Apple Crash Update

At this time my expanded top for Apple is a pattern I have to keep using until it no longer works. On the downward slope, I’m dealing with diagonal waves.  Recently support for Apple failed but it failed with a big gap still open. From here on things can go wild if we run into a short 5th wave in Minute degree. This important gap also happened close to the Fibonacci number $144. Between $130-$120 we have another huge open gap that could get closed on this run. The wave count layout might take a month or so, but then Apple should rally along with the general markets.

Smart analysts are still shaking their heads why Warren Buffet was buying AAPL stock at world record highs. Warren Buffet is now deep underwater with his Apple shares and it will be interesting to hear if he starts to sell any of his Apple holdings.

With this huge price chop, one would figure that the Gold/Apple ratio has improved. At 9.13:1 it has, but not nearly enough to get excited about. One extreme “cheap” Gold/Apple ratio is 21:1. I don’t think we will see the 21:1 ratio on this trip but I sure would like to see more than this recent 9.13:1 ratio we now have.

 

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Berkshire Hathaway Cycle Degree Update!

Those that are staying long (Bullish) on Berkshire Hathaway stock are now taking a beating. Will it continue?  I have no doubt that it will as BRK.A is just about the same as the DJIA. Since the January 2018 peak, BRK.A  also looks like it contains an expanded top. I can’t repeat it more often as expanded tops are powerful forecasting patterns. No matter how deep BRK.A will eventually crash down to, we know that Berkshire Hathaway stock will comeback and exceed 2018 highs again. That could take until SC degree wave 3 comes due some time towards 2041! First BRK.A has to suffer through bear market that can also take the next 2-3 years to play out.

I have no gold ratio data base built but following the DJIA or even SP500 will give us a potential temporary bottom.  Wave 2 (up) has completed with wave 3-4-5 still to come. This may drag on into the spring as the rest of 2019 could be very bullish.  Markets always retrace back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, but most don’t know where that previous 4th wave sits. The 2016 low is only an Intermediate degree low, not the Primary degree 4th wave we would need. The main reason why many markets have not retraced back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, is because they were never 4th waves in the first place. 1932 and 1974 didn’t end on a 4th wave so that is the main reason markets did not follow that popular guideline. The EWP didn’t break any rules or guidelines here, as it was all caused by highly biased wave analysts.

Any wave 1-2 in Primary degree that you see being attempted, is sending you a clear signal that they are in SC or GSC degree already!  The short version is that they have time-warped 20-30 years into the future.

I have been connecting all the Cycle degree dots for 5 years now and I will never change back as there is a direct EWP mathematical advantage that few can understand.

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Apple Decline Still Going Strong!

Readers may not understand any analysis done with the EWP, but wave counts that do not follow a strict sequence will never work.  Not until I switched over to Cycle degree specifications about 5 years ago did the EWP start to make sense to me. One of these special or complex corrections of an expanded pattern can also happen with single stocks. Of course, if we are not aware, or not looking for expanded patterns, our wave counts will be all over the place on the charts.

Many think that the market we are in is just a correction, but this is very misleading at best. The smartphone era is dying and saturated. Tim Cook is a late Boomer and still has many good years to go, but the older any CEO gets the less innovation and risk-taking the company takes.

With a big Apple price drop already behind us, you would figure that the Gold/AAPL ratio would get better.

I had one expensive reading of 5.27:1 on October 4th and our recent reading is 7.50:1. This is a bit better but nothing to scream out across the rooftops for.

Cheap would get us closer to a 21:1 ratio so we have a long way to go before that ever happens. I will have to adjust my smaller degree wave counts and even if my expanded top is not “real” the big correction might end up looking like a zigzag!

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TSLA Defying Gravity?

Tesla has been defying gravity far too long. It seems to be building a very flat top squeezed by a rising bottom which looks like a wedge to me.  Of course, if you are the bullish person you’re not going to be looking for any bearish signals. TSLA has defied the bears as well, but Elon Musk made the bear’s life miserable during the entire time. 

I have an open or uncapped 5th wave so technically I don’t know what wave count is next.

I do, but the only reason this 5th wave is uncapped is that I had no more editing room. I believe that TSLA has or still has to hit a Cycle degree wave 3 peak but I need more evidence in the short-term to confirm it. Tesla is all about commodities, so it stands to reason for all the choppy wave structures. In the future, I will re-work the last 2-3 years in different ways to eliminate any potential expanded top. No expanded top can mean a single zigzag while an expanded top is instantly a flat.

4 or 5 times Tesla tried to breakout and push higher, bit so far it has failed.

My Gold/TSLA database is not that large, as I have to build it from scratch. Today this ratio sits at 3.48:1 which is extreme when we use gold as money.  Most of 2018 the Gold/TSLA has been averaging between 3-5:1 which looks like TSLA has been hitting a ratio brick wall.

The cheap range of the Gold/TSLA ratio is between 60-70:1 so we have a longway to go before TSLA becomes cheap again.

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Apple Stock Crash Update.

This is for the people that must have trend lines, so I added a few lines that are important from my perspective. Most of the time I draw all these lines offline, but I don’t always publish them.  I went back to the 2015-2016 bull market which is where most indices also corrected with the same wave count.  The news that Apple and Amazon are hooking up destroyed this stock as all the mall stores will lose customers.

If Apple retraced back down to the bottom bullish trendline, then this would only get us closer to a single Primary degree bottom. Apple stock imploding from the Fibonacci $233 price level is not a surprise, as stocks also implode from the $55 Fibonacci price levels.

Every Fibonacci price drop is a 61% crash which we might get two of them.  The entire Apple wave count has always displayed diagonal wave structures, this is why I have no Primary degree wave 5 peak labeled. It’s a Primary degree “C” wave.

Without a doubt, this Apple stock was in a mania blow-off in Cycle degree. Any mania does not end with an 18 or 20% correction, as most of the time markets fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  That would get us closer to that $89 price level.

Apple was in a Cycle degree peak so, at a minimum, we have to see another Cycle degree bottom. 3 waves in Primary degree is what I will be looking for, which could also take until 2022 to play out.

Investors are going to learn what the real price value of Apple’s stock is in the next few years.

There is also a minimum of 3 gaps still open below present prices and I bet at least two of them will get filled.

The most extreme Gold/Apple ratio registered at about 5.27:1 on September 10th. It has been hitting the ratio brick wall and has now started to spread again. Still at a 6.34:1 ratio this morning, Apple stock is still extremely expensive to the price of gold. Cheap may come closer to the 21:1 range but that is only a reference. The gold ratio price brick wall would get hit first.

Some will never believe that Apple stock can even crash, but the size of this Apple bear market all depends on what degree this 2018 mania peak was!

 

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GE 18-Year Bear Market Review

 

When markets crash they create the headlines and GE is no exception. Hedge funds are dumping stock (selling low) as they panic to get out of their long positions. I will not keep detailed wave counts on GE, but it sure looks like it has been close to an 18-year bear market. Every attempt to go higher was trashed and GE resumed its decline. This is just a quick look at the GE stock and I do have alternate wave positions as this double zigzag could also be a diagonal set of 5 waves. Either way, a new bear market record low should happen. Below $5 would be my obvious choice which could also be the “A” wave in Primary degree, that I’m after. If that is the case then any substantial rally should give us another rocky bullish trend.

I had no Gold/GE ratio database started, so I checked a few of the extremes to see how expensive GE was when compared to the gold futures cash price.

Starting back at the top in 2000 the Gold/GE ratio hit 5:1, that was an extreme just about matching the 2018 Apple peak. Then from the 2000 peak, GE crashed into the 2009 bottom along with the general markets, and the Gold/GE ratio exploded to 100:1. Then the bull market that ended the Great Recession compressed the Gold/GE ratio back to about 41:1.

In early 2016 the bottom fell out of the GE price as support seemed to be non-existent. Today this Gold/GE ratio is sitting at 150:1 which makes it cheaper than the 2009 bottom already! I’m sure the spreading of the Gold/GE ratio is not finished. One would just about have to take weekly ratio readings, to catch it when the Gold/GE ratio starts hitting a price brickwall.

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Apple Crash Update: As Warren Buffet Loses 4 Billion in One Day!

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-big-bet-on-apple-has-one-wall-street-trader-asking-has-he-lost-it-2018-11-05

Apple investors are getting hammered including Warren Buffet. Warren Buffet has the biggest stake ever in Apple. I cannot see the logic of buying anything at extreme record highs but rich people are the only ones that can waste their money buying high price stocks. It’s all the other investors that are going to get sucked into thinking that Apple stock is still going to the moon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/warren-buffett-loses-nearly-4-billion-in-single-day-on-his-apple-stake.html

Warren Buffet is  buying his own stock back as well. If $4 billion is not enough, then just follow this saga as the world is slowing down and heading into another recession. Buffet bought IBM the same way, and look how that turned out. In recent months the Gold/Apple ratio has been the most expensive around the 8:1 ratio and today it sits at 6.0:1 about the same it was back in August 2018. A cheap Gold/Apple ratio is about 21:1, which may never get hit again but when any ratio starts to hit a price brick wall, then this is a sign of a major top. I think Apple is also at a Cycle degree wave 3 peak and they do not correct in just a few months as it could take years for this impending bear market to play out.

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Apple New Record High And The Fibonacci Number $233!

 

Apple topped out early yesterday and seems to be heading down along with all the other indices. I call it the “Buffet Rally” as he was buying at record highs for months. Nobody else has that kind of money to throw around, as it seems he created the bull market in Apple as he was buying. Apple stock is held by many hedge funds and big investment funds, but they will have no stomach holding onto Apple stock when Apple continues to crash.

I keep about 20 gold/ratios in my ratio pool, and Apple just peaked out with a Gold/Apple ratio of 5.27:1.

This is an all-time ratio expensive reading for what I have records for. The previous most expensive ratio was 7.85:1, which has now been broken by a wide margin. Those that call Apple as a good investment have no clue about the insane Gold/Apple ratio displayed here today!

I will work the expanded version at this time, and even then Apple topped at a Fibonacci number of $233!  Can Apple crash down to $144? Sure it can and even more if we consider a Cycle degree wave 4 crash is coming.

Buying on the dips will slaughter investors if they don’t understand how serious the coming recession-depression will be. Not until Solar Cycle #25 starts up, would I bet that Apple will be a good investment again.

Of course, you may have to wait 3-4 years before that happens. 2022 is an expected bottom as years ending with a “2” seemed to spawn huge bull markets.

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Facebook Crash And Burn Review

 

When analysts are talking about buying on the dip in Facebook do not have a clue that the bull market in FB has finished, with that huge drop and open gap a mile wide.  Not knowing when a bull market has ended or even care to learn how bubbles can end, will always lose when investing with the herd.  I don’t know which gap is bigger, the one up top or the big gap below $34! Longer term it would not surprise me if FB eventually crashed down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. Many investors can’t think that far ahead as that is too much like work.

This crazy tech mania will crash and burn and the only real question is when a real bottom may arrive? That may not happen until late 2022 as stock markets around the world can crash 70% or more. 2022-90 years gets us back to 1932. 90 years are 3, 30 year cycles or 1 year off a Fibonacci 89. 89 is one of the most powerful Fibonacci numbers you don’t want to ignore. Most people do ignore all the even Fibonacci numbers, which I don’t

There is no way anyone can pick a ratio bottom, when nobody has a clue how big the correction is going to be in the first place. Facebook may end up like another Tulip Mania story never to rise again, where the top gap may never get closed!  Just like the tech section imploded in 2000, 2008, we will get another bear market and recession just the same.

Years ending with a “2” have been very bullish turning years so 2022 will be a very important date to watch.

The Gold/FB ratio is sitting at 7.32:1 and it should expand as FB keeps on crashing. Cheap at one time was a Gold/FB ratio of 100:1,  so we have a long way to go before FB becomes cheap again.

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Apple: Did Warren Buffett Push Apple To The Limit?

 

Maybe I’m the odd ball as I see Warren Buffett go out of his way to by into Apple stock at world record highs. Warren Buffett created his own bull market and the majority are falling into the same trap.  What does Apple do with all this free money?  They go out and blow it buying their own shares back at world record highs.  It see it as a complete waste of money given to them by the share holders. Sooner or later Warren Buffett will have to take a rest, and when he does this Apple stock will crash!  We now have another major AAPL stock peek and it has started to back off in the last few days. In the long run all asset classes are going to suffer a deflationary crash and Apple will not be exempt from this. You can pour over the fundamentals all you want, but fundamentals always tell us the wrong things at the extremes.

The Gold/Apple ratio speaks volumes if you know how to use it. A record expensive ratio has been at 7.29:1, this has now been blown out of the water and this morning this ratio stands at 5.48:1, which is the most expensive reading I have ever recorded with the Gold/Apple ratios.

We would have to get to 21.81:1 before it becomes cheap again.  We would need a bit bigger decline so it has no more time to hit another new record top in 2018!

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TSLA Record High Update

This may be my last posting regarding Tesla as it may delist and go private. SpaceX is already private and TSLA may soon join SpaceX. The short players have been getting burned as close to 31% of the entire TSLA float has been shorted. Investopedia is an excellent site to get information about any market meanings and technical indicators.

They do a big spread about TSLA short players and how they get squeezed. Still TSLA is also approaching a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, but we may never find out if we can’t get private price charts on TSLA. Many companies have delisted in the past so it’s not that uncommon.

The Gold/Tsla ratio is a bit better at 3.4:1, down from an extreme of 1.13:1. I’m sure TSLA stock will not hold up, and sooner or later it will take out my 4th wave support at the $140 price level.

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Facebook Is Not Going To The moon!

Just in case FB investors don’t know, but Facebook is doomed just like all other Nasdaq related stocks. Facebook is running out of people as even the younger crowd is bored with it. After all how many cat and dog tricks are there? This rally that could be just finishing is just another bearish rally, but a small one to boot. If such a small counter rally can get the FB bulls all excited again, then they are pretty easy to fool on any counter rally of larger degree levels. Still, even if I had the available cash I personally would not short FB, Apple or any other popular stock, that many are also trying to short. TSLA also has an open gap, below present prices.

Elon Musk thinks he is bigger than the entire market, as he is constantly fighting the TSLA bears with his own stock purchases.

 

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Apple: Another Price Peak?

This morning Apple hit another price peak before it reversed. Any new record high could be the last record high that may take decades before it is ever achieved again. Warren Buffet is sitting on a big pile of cash, and that alone should be a warning that stock market investors should be building up cash positions. Just about every tech titan have massive cash positions, so they are already to buy low once the opportunity arises again. The peak seems to be $209.50 so far and Apple would have to crash to $190 to close off this huge gap. By any metric you want to use all the markets are in the biggest inflated stock market in history and when it gets serious in correcting, prices will head south.

Even the Warren Buffet indicator is flashing serious downside warnings as it shows extreme valuations. The Gold/Apple ratio also created a new record high at 5.84:1 this morning so.  The lower the price of gold goes and Apple does not follow, then this Gold/Apple ratio will only get worse.

I’m sure you are reading about all the share buy back programs being implimented, with Apple being no exception. I think company initiated buyback programs rips off all those rich investors as it is a clear signal that they can waste their money buying their own shares back at world record highs.  All their trying to do is manipulate their own stocks higher to appease rich investors.  The amount of money big corporations spend to prop up their share price, Apple alone could have launched a mission to mars many times over, and even stop of on Titian for a little sidetrip. 🙂 Hey, I would love to see that Apple Logo on a big Falcon 9 heavy rocket.

When high tech companies start paying dividends, then this company is signaling that, “Hey we got so much money we don’t know what to do with our cash”! So they give cash away to investors, who do and have done absolutely “nothing” to enhance the company itself.  Did investors work on the production line? No, they are leaches and are just along for the ride. If investors ride along with a trillion dollar company, then how much will they lose once Apple stock crashes by 70%?

Running with the bulls is dangerous, as it takes nothing to get trampled to death by the herd!

High inflated stock prices, ridiculous high real estate prices is not good for anyone escpecially for the younger generations. 2-3 years from now I’m sure we will have a new reality that no one expects today. Deflation is the real threat to investors and the Fed is fighting the very same inflation that they created in the first place.

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BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cycle Degree Peak 2007-2018 Review

 

If Warren Buffet keeps buying blue chip stocks then I would say he just about owns the DJIA with all his holdings. He bought into many stocks at record highs, with Apple being one of the biggest buys at record highs. Invest with the herd and you die by the herd, so I fully expect BRK.A to crash right along with all other indices around the world. The world is going into a major deflationary crash, which even Warren Buffet is powerless to stop. It will not surprise me to eventually see BRK below the $100,000 price level.

That is only the middle of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree as sometimes they push even lower, like the markets did in the 2009 bottom. Only the rich can play this game as the rich own 80% of the markets. Real Estate prices around the world are crashing already, as the rich can no longer afford to hang on to investment properties where prices  are falling faster than leaves of a maple tree in the fall!  Top smart money mangers have already sent letters to thier clients warning them. My friends and family members will watch it on the 6’oclock news this fall.

It is the world fertility crash that is going to completley change this world to a deflationary world. Our dying boomer generation are permanent sellers of real estate and they may even have several or more empty homes to get rid off.  For those than can wait 3 years or so, they will see a different stock, gold and housing landscape, from anything imaginable today.

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Apple 10 Day Mother Of All Gaps!

About the only “FAANG” stock to still take a hit is Apple. Every hedge fund loves this stock and Warren Buffet owns billions of shares. The huge open gap to the upside is more like an exhaustion gap, and it will get filled again. Facebooks gap may never get closed as these growth stories do come to screeching halts and even disappear!

Yes, I’m very bearish on all asset classes except for the US dollar. The world investors are sitting on a Death Cross that they know little about, and they may wake up once the stock markets crash right along with gold.  I keep gold ratios on about 10-15 asset classes which are all in-house indicators that tell me when any asset class is out line, to the cash price of gold. This Gold/Apple ratio now sits at a ratio of 6:1 the most expensive reading in my records. For the last 2 months it’s been under 7:1, so that tells me the Gold/Apple ratio is hitting a brick wall!  Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes and Apple is no different.

Continue reading “Apple 10 Day Mother Of All Gaps!”

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Apple Stock Breaks New Record Highs!

Last month, Apple’s stock chart started to go vertical and is now forming a spike. I use one trend line which touches close to 3 peaks, and now is on its 4th peak. All this under the anticipation of the iPhone X  release.  This is nothing new that hasn’t happened many times before. What’s just a bit different than any other time is that all major stock indices in the USA, are also at world record highs this past week.

Apple’s charts have diagonal qualities to them so I used zigzags with this wave count.  Sooner or later every bull market will start to act like nothing can take it down,  so investors feel “Safe” inside the herd of investors. The VIX confirms this, as it also crashed to another extreme new low price.  The Apple $200 price forecast is pretty common, but that is a safe forecast.

How deep or long of a correction Apple will have, all depends on the degree of correction, that we may see in the next few years. Any bottom trend line would be pretty useless as it would only touch one point while the top has 4 touch points. There are two major price bottoms of $89 and $55 which we can use, but they are just visible targets on the charts.

Insiders left a long time ago and they are not rushing in to buy. What really stands out, but few will ever know about or even use is the Gold/Apple ratio. The cash, gold price divided by Apple’s stock price, will give you the amount of shares you can buy with one gold ounce.

At this peak the Gold/Apple ratio has hit a record extreme of 7.5:1. This is the most compressed number since I have been tracking this ratio, and it shows how expensive it is when we use real money. Sorry, Bitcoin is not real money, it’s invisible speculation money.

Apple could be at a wave 3 top in Cycle degree as its ability to innovate are being hampered. At a minimum Apple could hit that $85-90 price level again, which is barely a 50% correction. The $150 and $140 price level also needs watching as that could supply short term support.

The only important support is the price that will kick of a new bull market, and nobody knows where that may end.

Harry Dent has forecasted a DJIA 5000 price level to come, and Apple is part of that. So when the big markets start to crash will Apple stock holders be,  “safe”? I doubt it very much.

Making a DJA forecast of 5000 means little if we can’t forecast the bull market that will be sure to follow. Besides, there is “NO” previous bull market support down at the 5000 price level.

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Facebook Record High Bubble Review

I just couldn’t resist looking at Facebook’s stock pattern. Just like many others they all seemed to be in bubble territory. If we jump back in time to the 2012 bottom and start to look up the wave structure, we see the pattern of an impulse. Well, it may start out like that, but it falls apart rather quickly at about $50. 

I look at it as a diagonal wave structure where the first wave was a zigzag. The higher the stock price travelled the uglier the patterns became. The chances are extremely high that Facebook had a diagonal 5th wave bull market ending at a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree.  The bottom of 2011 was the start of the stock mania in the general markets, with FB following about a year or so later. 

I show a huge gap at about the $25 price level. This gap only shows up when I set my frequency at Bigcharts to a daily setting. Once I switch the same chart to a weekly frequency, then the gaps miraculously disappear. Seeing and taking note of gaps is very important from my perspective. They say that 90% of all gaps eventually get closed… I would be the last guy to argue that point.

It may seem unbelievable at first, but you have to remember that we could be heading into what will be called a bear market. I have to call it a Cycle degree 4th wave correction and it is just part of a much bigger bull market yet to come. (After 2021)

Some single stocks may never regain their former glory after a high degree bear market, as some may just simply disappear. 

The Gold/FB ratio is now the most expensive since I have been keeping records. I don’t have that many records, but enough  to have some target ratios we can use.  This ratio stands at 7.52:1,  which means you can only buy 7.52 shares with one ounce of gold. At its low point you could buy 100 shares with one ounce of gold. This is a pretty extreme shift, and not until this ratio has started to shift back to bigger numbers, and we hear news of insider buying, then FB will remain extremely risky. 

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Apple Cycle Degree Review

I’m going to throw another Apple wave count at you, which many of the free members, may not understand. It is the dedicated few that have followed me for years that will have a better understanding when I talk about expanded patterns. The potential for an expanded top is always present, as part of any corrective wave, and I think Apples stock pattern can fit this bill with ease.

No, we are not going into some SC, or GSC degree bear market, as nobody has ever confirmed that those two degree levels have completed anywhere, since the market peaks in 2000. Any wave count will not make sense if we don’t know when one pattern ends and another pattern starts. In May of 2016 Apple created its lowest low and then started to soar pushing to a new all time record price of $156.

Isn’t this a No-brainer simple set of 5 waves up?  Well… Not after you take a closer look.  The entire rally lasted a bit over 12 months before it started to reverse.  The probability of a zigzag going to new record highs as part of an expanded pattern is real,  if we consider that a bigger diagonal force is also in effect. We do have perfect alternation between the A5 wave and the C5 wave, which is exactly what I like to see in zigzags.

The 5 waves leading to the “A” wave in Minor degree are far bigger than those little skinny 5 wave sequences that soared to new record highs. Zigzags like this can and do show up in any diagonal pattern, and we should always look for alternating patterns, between the two sets of 5 waves. 

Another zigzag may start of long and skinny, but then switch to bigger, overlapping set of choppy waves. This keeps us scratching our heads, wondering what’s going on.  The thing is we don’t always see them early enough, and even when we do see them, it’s hard to believe that what we’re seeing is actually real! 

I deliberately did not start the wave count going down, as it is easy to count as the start of 5 waves and wave 4 has just completed.  Since we have 4 short waves, the 5th wave could extend.  

My bet is that this starting bearish phase is another diagonal, where our present rally would be a wave 2 and not a 4th wave rally. This makes a huge difference in the count, especially if we need to decline 5 waves in Minor degree.

The horizontal lines are price levels, where 3 of the biggest gaps will get closed. These can all become temporary support in a bigger bearish phase. Apple’s price would eventually have to retrace that entire “A” wave bottom, after which we may land on an “A” wave in Primary degree.

The next bearish phase could all go sideways and down, with no clear 5 wave sequence decline. This would then send a signal that the big wave counts need another review.

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Apple, Bull Market Crash Update

 

The Apple chart above was my last update from May 21, 2017 when I figured another major top could be coming soon.

I can’t always remember the exact wave count from a month ago, so I have to look back to see where the wave count last finished at.   In this case the top wave 5 in Intermediate degree is still holding.

What followed was a very dramatic move down. This move down can also work as an “ABC” decline leading to a potential wave one of a set of diagonal waves.  We are coming off one of the biggest world tech bubbles, the likes of what happen in 2000 when the  “Dot Com Era”  came to an abrupt end.  Of course, Apple was walking to a different drummer as well, and if we were paying attention at that time, Apple was just in a big correction.  I can’t always give readers a complete update on Apple as I try and stay away from analyzing single stocks.

I do it because I’m a big fan of Apple products and I own three or more of their products which I use  everyday. 

We also have a big gap still open below present prices, which could work as a strong temporary support area. It’s not rocket science that when a stock price dips, all the bad news becomes front page news.  The fear of not selling enough iPhones is all it takes, sending Apple investors into a panic. In reality, it’s just a bunch of algorithms gone rouge.  :roll: Not too many traders that are nimble with their mouse clicks, can keep up to a fast downward move like Apple made. 

Computer trading works in milliseconds, and can also produce many of the gaps we see.  Last month the Gold/Apple ratio was hitting extreme readings of just under 8:1 which broke every record that I have calculated since 2016. 

Not until the Gold/Apple ratio starts to improve by the ratio getting wider ratio will it be logical to even think about buying Apple shares. I can’t give specific buy recommendations, but I’m sure readers will see me become very bullish again. 

Mind you it may take several years before that can happen. In the meantime, all we can do is track Apple’s progress,  trying to  confirm any bearish decline. 

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Apple Record High Update

Last week the Apple stock price once again broke a new world record at $156.65, but has now backed off a bit from this extreme high. In a fit of madness we could see another record high, but the odds of that happening are becoming less  and less. Apple is also close to a  potential Cycle degree wave three top, after which we should expect a 3 wave bear market, of some type. Flat, zigzag, or a triangle is always one of our three choices, for any correction, but we have to do some Sherlock Holmes deductive reasoning, figuring out which pattern will have the best odds of coming true. 

A triangle is my last option, and a flat would be my first option.  Since I view all the markets from a Cycle degree perspective, we have to look to the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree,  to find a potential bottom for a Cycle degree wave 4. 

The May 2016 low is not the previous 4th wave  of  one lesser degree as  it may be way back in mid 2013 that Apple stock,  may have to correct down to. This is centered around another huge open gap down at the $55 price level.  Even before Apple can ever reach those bearish extremes, it  still has to crash through two huge open gaps first.  Those gaps may provide some very good reversal positions for a “B” wave rally, but we will not know until we get close. 

Sure, I love Apple products and do all my work and play with them, but that does not stop me from being very bearish,  in the longer term. 

The Gold/Nasdaq ratios have been hitting extremes, with the  Gold/Apple ratio also bouncing around at the extremes.  The Gold/Apple ratio sits at 8.20:1, which is a bit cheaper now, but this ratio has a long way to go before Apple becomes cheaper to the point it can become a long term hold again.

We need a very obvious mood change with this Apple chart,  and that happens when Apple makes an obvious move, pointing south.  

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Apple Soars Crossing the $150 Price Level. Is It A Warren Buffet rally?

 

 

In the last few years Apple was inflicted with the “Bear Market Disease”.  This bearish phase lasted about 17-18 months before Apple  turned and soared again. 

News reports show that Warren Buffet has been buying Apple stock,  while insiders have sold out.   Warren Buffet and Apple are two of the biggest elephants in the room, and it would not surprise me that the Warren Buffet group created this bull market in the first place.  Buying into a stock that has just broken all Gold/Apple extreme expensive ratios again,  just does not make any sense to a contrarian analyst like me.  Investors just love to buy high and then get out after the price crashes.  The Gold/Apple ratio is sitting at 8.20:1  which is one of the lowest recordings this year. 

For my readers you can say that Warren Buffet is buying Apple shares close to a Cycle degree wave 3 top?  There is no way that Apple can stay “Up”,  if the rest of the markets execute a big swan dive. The Apple stock is everywhere, and it is only a matter of debate, at which bull market bottom this Apple stock can find support.  An exact top is always a problem 

We have more gaps in Apple that must be breaking a record as well.  The last 5th wave is the extended wave as they are small but also contain gaps. The last 5 waves up, could also be a “C” wave so in this case  it makes little difference. 


Updated May, 9, 2017

This morning gold plunged and Apple shares charged through the $150 per share price level.  This briefly pushed  the Gold/Apple ratio into a new expensive record when using gold as money. This ratio touched 7.85:1 which is the most expensive ratio since I have been tracking with the Apple stock price. 

The recent Apple, and US dollar rally combined with a gold price plunge, confirms that, “Stock Mania” is still hanging around.  

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