It looks like we had our peak just a bit over a month ago, and now the Nifty has shown us in what direction it really wants to go. It looks like an expanded pattern may also have been completed. Many times the resulting “C” wave can be very steep and the Nifty sure fits that description.
No country is going to avoid or be able to hide from the impending deflationary crash that is coming. What happened in 2008, was just a Primary degree crash and recession but this time it’s bigger by “one” degree. We are heading to a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom that will not be over in just a month or two, but it could take until 2022 before the end of a bear market is near. There is no chance that I can keep up with giving detailed Nifty declines and wave counts, as the Minor degree is 3 degrees below Cycle degree.
All those experts that are telling you to buy on the “Dips” have no clue how big this bear market will get or how long it will take. After 2022 it could take a 19-year bull market before the Nifty hits new record highs, based on the 30-year cycle. The 30-year Cycle ended in 2011, but some dates will be out by a 1 year or so, especially when expanded patterns are involved.
I do have a strong following from India but I will not show every little move that might be good for simple day trading set-ups. I don’t think the Nifty can come out of the impending crash and bear market unscathed. If a new record high gets established again, it would surprise me a bit, but sooner or later all markets will start to tank. We need more downside, before we no longer have the time for a new record high in 2018 to establish itself. We already have a small set of 5 waves forming, but we have to wait to see if other sets of 5 waves start to form.
I have no real track record of the Gold/Nifty ratio, as I would have todo some back checking to create some paramerters I can work with. Today this ratio stands at 9.83:1, which means it takes 9.83 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Nifty. This is already to the expensive side, but in the next few years we want to buy more units of the Nifty with one ounce of gold.
The Nifty has also potentailly peaked at a Cycle degree wave 3 high, so a big long drawn-out bear market will happen. This bear market bottom may take until late 2022 to complete, which is 90 years from 1932. 90 years equals 3, 30 year cycles. Solar Cycle #24 has to end, and solar cycle #25 will start and that is when I will turn very bullish.
This is what they call a one day chart with nothing but diagonal wave structures which are not important enough to spend all my time counting them out. What I’m after is the last peak of this run as India will not be unscathed in the comming deflationary crash. So far the Nifty has already turned and August may see the continuation of a bearish trend. Every new record high could be the last record high, and the record high for all of 2008. India produces many commodaties that are traded all over the world, so when commodaties implode so will the Nifty.
The record high to beat again, is 11,366 which peaked today. I have a strong following from India as I talk to traders about the Nifty in my neighborhood. Hopefully this peak will hold but otherwise, I have to keep it in mind that any extreme can still push to a higher extreme, before they implode! Without a doubt the world is going to suffer a major deflationary crash, where nothing including gold will hold up, except for the US dollar. My personal trading account is already mostly in US dollars and they will remain there for the rest of my life, as I prefer to trade in US funds anyway. When I convert back to CAD at any time, I get an extra 33% kicker to boot.
Gold and silver was in a 30 year mania bubble in 2011, and its crash and bear market is just starting to get going. India is also a huge gold market, so to say that bullion holders in India are not going to get hurt is an understatement. Even cotton prices are set to implode as all commodaties will take a hit.