OIL CHARTS

OIL CHARTS

INDEX CHARTS

INDEX CHARTS

PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS

PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS

STOCK CHARTS

STOCK CHARTS

CURRENCY CHARTS

CURRENCY CHARTS

ENERGY CHARTS

ENERGY CHARTS

 

Category Archives: Nifty-Shanghai-Nikkei-DAX

DAX 1995-2018: Elliott Wave Review From A Cycle Degree Perspective!

This is the 4th world index that I looked at recently. It looks like the DAX investors have had a wild ride in the past and now it’s coming back!  The DAX history is linked to the US markets as the DAX crashed and burn right along with US stock exchanges. Back at the 2000 bubble, I thought there could be an expanded flat, but it also works as a great diagonal 5th wave in Minor degree. After 2000 the bottom fell out of the DAX but this DAX crash counts out very well as a zigzag.

The zigzag bottomed in early 2003, after which the DAX took off in yet another bull market. The DAX also counts out well as a set of 5 waves in Minor degree. “In a bull market “every” 5th wave top must be joined or connected to a one higher degree number.  So in mid 2007 the 5th wave in Intermediate degree topped, but also stopped on a wave 3 in Primary degree. After which it crashed again.

Then by early 2009 the DAX bottomed right along with the rest of the world, but also participated in the 2009-2018 bull market. The 5th wave in Primary degree counts out very well as higher quality 5 waves, which keeps it out of the diagonal wave classification. I could only squeeze the 5th wave in Primary degree into the chart, which should be capped. The 2018 peak, is a wave 3 in Cycle degree, not SC degree and especially not GSC degree. Being out by just one degree, we can be out by a mile, so we want to take care about what we stick onto the 2018 peaks.

All my DAX peaks are ending with a wave 3 count and so are all my other indices that I work with.

A friendly warning, “Don’t trust any wave count ending with a 5”  from anywhere on the Internet. They have broken the Elliott Wave sequence, if they don’t cap any bull market 5th wave.

To confirm any future Cycle degree 4th wave correction, it will take a very attentive wave analyst to keep tracking the DAX which I don’t have but I will track some of the bigger turns when I can.  It’s the crowd psychology that is being damaged as they don’t know what to do with all this volatility. One expert claims that this is the most volatility he has seen in the markets in his entire  career.  What? Stay tuned as youv’e seen nothing yet!

Hits: 16

Nifty: India Stock Index 2001-2018 Review

Starting back in 2001-2002 I had an Intermediate degree 4th bottom, which matches the bottom with most US indices. The pattern is also made up with diagonal wave structures, especially from the 2009 crash bottom.  That’s one ugly run from the 2009 bottom, and it is a pattern only a mother could love!

From 2009 to 2018 looks like it is right out of our EWP books as the entire 5th wave is a diagonal. I counted the diagonal with a simple wave count, but technically they are all connected zigzags. Any wave 2 or wave 4 can contain a flat type pattern, but in most part waves 1-3 and 5 should be zigzags. Expanded “B” waves could make this pattern but then we need a very strong down crash to confirm that.

I don’t think that is the case as any “B” wave rally should be far more volatile than what we can see. Is this Nifty index also at a wave 3 in Cycle degree? I sure think so, but it will take an attentive wave analyst to confirm any bear market that we are going to get.

One lesser degree from a Cycle degree top is the 4th wave in Primary degree, not Intermediate degree. This wouldn’t even kick in until the Nify hits about 6000, but most of the time corrections will travel to the lower end of the scale, which is at the 3000-2500 price range. Sometimes even a bit lower. A 73% crash may do it, and a Cycle degree bottom will correspond very well with all other markets I track.

Looking at another wedge sure will kick the enthusiasm out of the bulls,  so all I can say is “Watch Out Below”.

Hits: 3

Shanghai Composite Index (INDEX): SHCOMP

 

I have a large following from China and I wish I had more time to post the Shanghai more frequently. From the 2007 peak, the Shanghai crashed right along with all the US markets, but after that the Shanghai started to do its own thing. We have a major secondary peak that is a lower peak, which puts the Shanghai into a bear market. Big bear markets are just big bull market corrections from my Elliott Wave perspective.

The 1000 price range could put a bottom to the Shanghai as that would be the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. From everything I looked at most of the solar cycle turnings has been from the tops of solar cycles not from the bottoms as most US markets have been doing.  Now the Shanghai seems to be drawn to the bottom of solar cycle #24, just like US indices have been doing.

It still may take 3 years for the Shanghai to bottom, but it can turn into a bull market right along with US markets just the same. Despite Trump’s efforts in a trade war we will still be in a world economy, relying on each others products. China is a big buyer of LNG products and imports more oil from Asia than the US does. China now gets more oil from the Middle East than the US does – Vox

Hits: 6

Nikkei Index 1989-2018 Review: Mother Of All Elliott Wave Triangles?

It took the Nikkei index along time before it topped but in the last few months a spike has appeared after which the Nikkei has started to decline. The Nikkei has turned very close to the US indices turning dates. Which could be ending on a Primary degree “D” wave bull market.  This also means that the Nikkei could suffer a 3 wave decline resembling another zigzag, but it will be one degree lower.  My bottom big trend line is parallel to the top trend line, with the bottom trend line pointing to new all time record lows for the Nikkei stock exchange.

In a nutshell, the Nikkei could end on the same Cycle degree 4th wave right along with all the other 5 indices I cover.  I did not keep a record of the Gold/Nikkei ratio, but presently we are sitting at a 16.6:1 ratio. It takes 16.6 Troy gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nikkei. This makes it about as expensive as any of the US indices.  I would have to do some back checking to find the cheapest ratios, which I will have to  put on my list. For now we have one ratio and I’m sure it is also hitting a brick ratio wall.

Checking the COT report with the Nikkei I see the commercials are net short by a ratio of 1.7:1, which isn’t all that bad, but the speculators are net long by a ratio of 4:1. The speculators are far more bullish than the commercials are bearish, which puts the speculators into a typical bull trap. A “D” wave bull trap.

The single rising trend line I have may give the Nikkei a pause, for a potentially strong counter rally.

Hits: 1