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Category Archives: NASDAQ

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Update

 

On this daily chart, the Death Cross is still going to happen as the Nasdaq wanted nothing to do with the 50-day MA, and could not find support above the 200-day MA!  If the big bearish trend is true, then no amount of jaw-boning will turn the tide, even with the COT report below showing a small net long position. The bears will show us if they are in-control by taking out my wave 1 position Minor degree which still could happen this month.

My last Gold/Nasdaq ratio calculation was in early September 2018 what at that time registered the most expensive ratio of 6.38:1. It takes 6.38 gold ounces to but just one unit of the Nasdaq which blows the old record of 4.94 gold ounces by a long shot.  Cheap would be 1.18, so there is a long way to go before this Nasdaq becomes cheap again. The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has been hitting a brick wall a the 6:1 range, so that is a usually a big clue that this market is far too expensive to be a good long-term investment at this time.

This is only a very small net long position with this COT report, which is nothing to get excited about especially when this is one of the only long indices I have.

Hits: 7

Nasdaq Daily Chart: Pushing Higher

 

 

October started out rather boring, but this may have changed this morning, as gold, silver, and USD jumped together.  The Nasdaq broke just a bit higher, but how long that will last is next to impossible to tell. I will keep this expanded pattern alive after any major peak has happened until I see how the “C” wave decline starts to look like.

Folks, I’m not looking for a simple bull market correction as a Cycle degree bear market is coming. “Stay in it for the long term”,  has been the constant theme, but would you, if a 1929, 2008, type of a crash was coming?  Stock markets and the solar cycles have a love-hate relationship with each other, that before the solar cycle ends, there is usually a big stock market crash or decline. The 1987 crash was about the same, but the 1987 crash was just a Minor degree crash. 2022, is my target year for a major bottom, and this should coincide, with the end of solar cycle #24 and the start of Solar Cycle #25.

I will be keeping my updates short for now, but this market would have to slice right through my bottom wedge, by a wide margin so there is no hope of the markets breaking any record highs for 2018, again.

Hits: 26

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Cycle Degree Wave 3 Review

 

Since my last update I had to move my “C” wave in Minor degree up as I was still early by a week or so. The last peak was September, 3, 2018 at the 7720 price level. The real peak where I have to count from, was way back in January of 2018.  I’m sure we can hear the crying how I can’t count this way, but I see so many of these that ignoring them is not an option.  It is the “C” wave that gives it away, and we have to wait until the end of the month to see if the Nasdaq 7720 price level holds.

In a fit of madness stops or options get triggered which still could spike the Nasdaq higher, but I think the markets are running on fumes. Just scanning all the commercial COT report positions, there are vertualy no net long positions anywhere. Painting a bullish picture in stocks, will show you how the majority of wave analsyts can fall into the “mood trap” just like any other human does.

See all that empty space below our present high? What do you think is down there? Nothing but PUT options and protective sell stop orders, and when they get hit, all those bulls will turn into instant bears.

Stocks also follow the 30 year cycles but they sure can crash together like they did in 2008!

The “C” wave decline in Intermediate degree could be fairly steep but will only be obvious after it has formed.  The Nasdaq is the odd ball here as it seems to have pushed this “C” wave further than all the others. This will be last of the Internet bubbles in a long time, as the internet has matured and we don’t need to invent a new smart phone.

Readers have to make up their own minds if things are, “Different This Time”. Sure it’s different, but so was 1929, 1987, 2ooo, and 2007! Take our 2018 peak and count back 89 years and we get 1929! Ignoring the 30 year inflationary and deflationary cycles is not an option. T-Bonds have a 120-year cycle that started in 1981. (two 60-year Cycles).

We also have a rising wedge which every technical analsyt knows about, but only a few have the confidence to read them.

Once this turns then things can speed up, as panic will take control of the crowd, and no more record highs are produced. Add 3 years to our January peak and we coud see a bottom by 2022, so buckle up and watch all the bullish investment prices evaporate and disappear.

Gold, silver are pushing higher so money leaving stocks can flow into gold stocks in a flash, if the GDX holds it’s price level.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Impending Death Cross Update!

The odds that the main indices also contain an expanded pattern is to hard to ignore. The “C” wave decline can be very steep and it would travel faster as well. Again, protective sell stops are piling up underneath every price support, and a quick count tells us we have about 5 legs that have to get retraced.

We still have a long way to go before the Death Cross is made in the Nasdaq as the crossings all travel in alternating sequences. After a Golden Cross comes a Death Cross, which forecasts a long term bearish decline to come. I have an in-house “pool” of futures Death Crosses which is just one of my 8 main indicators or tools that I use. Another main in-house pool consisting of all my gold/ratios is also another one of the 8 indicators I use.  I call them my “aces” in my hand, and if I only have 1-2 aces that give a clear signal then this is not nearly enough to justify a move.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 6.19:1 which is far more expensive than the 4.94:1 extreme that I once measured.

My Market Vane report is another “Ace” but this will run out soon. Market Vane shows that 76% bulls were present for last week. This has dropped down from a 24 month high of 91% bulls. 91% bulls is an extreme from any perspective, which means there is nobody left to get in.

Markets are twice as expensive now than they were in 2000 as the Warren Buffet indicator confirms. The entire world is sitting on impending Death Crosses so I only see downside potential for the rest of this year. It could take all of 2018, to show the damage that bears can cause but then all of 2019 coud be very bullish for stocks and gold again.

Hits: 36

NASDAQ: World Record Intraday High Update

The Nasdaq, so far has topped out at 7486 and has now started another small correction or the Nasdaq stock party could be over. From here on any record high could be the last record high for 2018. A few are figuring out that this market is doomed no matter how much they spin the bull shit (BS) that it is a good time to invest. There is a huge deflationary crash and bear market coming that only a few might understand.  When stock prices deflate, and the gold price crashes together then this is a deflationary crash.

This has all happened before and even recently depending on if you can remember the 2008 crash.  For about 8 months “everything” crash together ending at a bottom for gold in late November. Stocks bottomed in March 2009. The exact same forces are at work, where we are in the exact same position as the early 2008 top was.

This time in Cycle degree, stocks will join in with gold, but far more syncronized in the length of time. In otherwords, they can all crash together until gold crashes below $500 again. Mention $500 gold to a gold bug, and they lose it.  There are only a few big Nasdaq names that are still pushing the Nasdaq higher, so those 5 big names would be critical to watch for early exhaustion or speed deceleration. The choppy waves are there, the commercial traders have large short positions on the Nasdaq while the speculators are skewed to the long side.

Does it look like the commercials are jumping for joy and in a bullish position? No, the red at the bottom are the commercial short positions, while the lite bar graph on the top represents the large speculator long positions. It is the large speculators that are always wrong at the extremes, except the talking heads always talk about what the speculators are doing not what the commercial dealers are doing.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio also supports my bearish views as today it sits at a 6.1:1 ratio, which is the most expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio I have ever calculated.

I guess it is also a good time, to post a very professional description of the warning signs of a market top.

 

 

Hits: 15

NASDAQ Record High Review

naieve The Nasdaq is just 8 p0ints away from breaking to a new record high.  Apple’s stock pattern was also a zigzag  ending with a new record high which happens in diagoanl 5th waves.  The experts are saying that the next big bullish move is on its way, but many of the other indices I cover, do not confirm this potential bullish move.  The Russell 2000 has already scored new record highs and it also looks like it carried to new highs as an inverted zigzag.

This delays any Cycle degree top for the Nasdaq index for now.  I’m targeting 30 Cycle degree wave 3 peaks but I may have 5 or so that are “iffy” or not as secure as I would like to see it.

I don’t believe in this “next leg up theory”,  as investors love to invest into record high stock prices. They have done this at every record high as investors refuse to learn from past financial history.

A Cycle degree correction is not over in a few months, all though we’ve had 2-3 year crashes in the past. Nasdaq walks to a different drummer since the 2000 peak which would have been the wave 3 in Primary degree. The bear market that followed the 2000 peak works best as a running triangle ending in 2009.  Since 2009 we’ve had 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, including a good 5th wave extension.

One way of telling that a bearish phase is coming is once the Nasdaq retraces its February 2017 low at the 6200 price level, which should get everybody’s attention!  A big flat in Cycle degree is still the best choice at this time.

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NASDAQ Intraday Review

The Nasdaq had a very different time period for a major peak which was hidden or masked by the bearish attention to the DOW and SP500.   Any Nasdaq wave count is not clear at this point as we still have too many wild gyrations. Summer is coming on which can produce very bearish moves. We do have to respect the Nasdaq as it can keep on giving us the gears in the short term.

From late April the Nasdaq has now only produced a 3 wave run, as wave 4 is still missing from this action. I switched to line type chart but it also changes the wave patterns, producing different wave counts all the time. In the short term I will be doing some cosmetic wave counting, but eventually the trend will start to smooth out, and when it heads south it will help to confirm a bigger bearish phase is in effect. Recent Commercial trader report does not show an extreme bearish situation, but more of a small bullish situation. This could turn more bullish as the real decline shows it’s true colors.

It makes no sense to spend so much time in intraday scale as for long periods of time nothing can happen. Nobody can take advange of intraday scale wave counts. It might take a week before a new posting is read 4-5 times, by that time it’s to late to take advantage of it.  The big and best moves happen at the daily and weekly chart scales when the majority are all “forced”  to switch directions.

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Nasdaq Weekly Chart 2000-2018 Review

One of the most powerful patterns that we can find is what they call a “Wedge” in conventional technical analysis. A wedge can have a rising bottom and a falling top which eventually compresses the chart after which it has no choice but to explode and then soar.  The earliest we may have spotted this wedge , and take advantage of it, is in late 2008.  Sure, it’s all in hindsight, but unless we know what a wedge is we will never look for them in the first place.

For many years I have grappled with the 2000-2002 decline as it looked so much like an impulse, but this impulse did not fit anywhere. Maybe because it was not an impulse, but part of a triangle decline, ending with a running “E” wave. Running flats are common, and even zigzags do contain shortened “C” wave. I don’t like to call waves “truncated” as that is an excuse to not count anything. From my perspective the DJIA from 1937 to 1942, contained a wedge that forecast the huge Cycle degree wave 3 which may have ended March, 13, 2018.  I also have several large scale wedges that all indicate a huge bull market will come in the future.  Sure, I can change the wave count, but in the end this wedge will remain for all of financial history.

I only use parallel lines and I use the top rising trend as my base, then I create the same angle from the record bottom of early 2009.  The top trend line contains 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, so when the Nasdaq crashes and takes out the bottom trend line I also will be moving by a minimum of one degree. Cutting the bottom trend line I would also be finishing a potential Intermediate degree correction.  The 4000 price level  is not deep enough, if we need a 3 wave, Primary degree correction.

The gullible are brainwashed to buy on the dips and last month saw another huge one week share buying madness!

Investors just pumped the most money ever into stock funds for 1 week

You have to ask, “Buying on the dips for what?” Once a new low has been established, then all those “Dip” buyers will start to lose their capital base. All present dip buyers clearly tell us that they think that they are in a bull market. They think that another huge bear market will never come as that is old ancient history. The majority of investors never take the time to do historical research and most of them believe the brainwashing going on at market peaks.

The majority of all wave analysts have been brainwashed into believing this SC and GSC myth, but since the 2000 peaks this has never been confirmed by anyone. Since the dotcom bust in 2000, there  has “Never”  been a set of 5 declining waves in Primary degree. Only the Nasdaq looks like it has a set, and it doesn’t fit into any zigzag.

The Nasdaq hit a 2018 high of about 7200, and this is also the time I look for the highest peak of the year. The short version is that investors will not benefit from buying on the dips this year, and it may take over ten years before they ever break even again. They may have to wait until the “Roaring 2020s” arrive.

Hits: 241

Nasdaq Intraday Crash: Showing Us The Way!

Do we still have lower highs since the peak of the Nasdaq?  That’s a trick question as we can get this in any decline! Because the Nasdaq broke to a new record low at bullet train speeds, We could get a violent reaction but 5 waves pointing in a direction is telling us there is more downside to come. The other indices will catch up, but small difference will happen, is when a big difference appears, then it always needs a second look. The Nasdaq  marched to a different drummer again, this time it was just to be the last index to top out.

There are only two trading days left this week, so more downside is an option, but wild swings will surprise us. This may all smooth out a bit more once the Nasdaq trend is more established.  Either way we are heading what the mainstream might call “critical support” will come at the 6300 price level. Critical support for what? A new phase in the stock bull market? I doubt it very much!

The only support important enough is the one just before stocks strike out into another 8 year bull market. Not until the majority hate stocks again will a new bull market hatch!  Now if only AMZN would crash! After a quick check  Amazon’s stock price peaked at $1617 and is now down $120. I will create an Amazon post, but also talk about the Gold/AMZN ratio.

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Nasdaq Intraday Record High Now Visable In The Rear View Mirror!

Finally the markets have started to succumb to bearish forces again. It started last week and now looks to carry on with its bearish trend until at least after the Fed announcement this week. The white elephants in the Nasdaq, like Facebook, also managed to execute a swan dive this morning.

I will also be forced to move my Cycle degree peak over, but I will wait on that until this decline starts to pick up more steam.  Those who have never done any historical stock market research will repeat all the mistakes of the past, thinking that markets can’t crash when the fundamental analysts paint us a rosy picture.  Hate to break it to you, but markets always end when the majority think it can’t. When those two words like “New Era” get regurgitated by all the parrots in the world, then the big party is over.

Back at the peak in 2000, the new era mantra was also repeated many times, so it’s nothing I haven’t heard or read about before.  In Britain and the USA it was called the “Canal Age”, until the railroads came along and produced the new age of train travel. When the majority call it a great new age, then it is usually over and a market crash ensues with recessions or even depressions. In 2007 they had no clue that a recession was coming, but it sure arrived in a hurry.

Then, under the worst fundamental conditions, like in late 2008 the market turned by early March 2009 and then soared for another full 8 or so years.

The other indices have to follow and until they make a clear effort to join the bearish party, I use caution just incase we have another fake correction.

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Nasdaq New World Record Highs!

As I’m posting the Nasdaq has hit 7111 already and there still seems to be some momentum behind this move. All other indices I cover need to play catch up, but we know that the Nasdaq can march to a different drummer. In the end we may end up with a completely different wave count, for now.

The February decline sure can fit as a single 5 wave decline which could be part of an expanded top. From the February bottom I believe we have another diagonal wave structure, which created the new record high this morning. Everything seems to be rosy for the majority of investors again as chances are good this, “Tariff War” was just a lot of hype, or any real tariffs on steel and aluminum don’t matter much.

Since the late 2015 bottom we had a massive 5th wave extension which borders on being a diagonal wave structure.  In our EWP book they call it an “Ending Diagonal” but they do not count out the zigzags that make up any diagonal move.  The 4th wave in Intermediate degree is one warning, and a diagonal 5th wave is another, so this ethusium will get replaced by pessimism again.

One thing good about this new top, is that it hasn’t created a double or even triple top. When we do get them, then it is much harder because we have to work out where the decline starts from. In a Cycle degree zigzag, we can’t have the markets soar to new highs, as that breaks every rule in the book, but flat corrections sure can produce “B” wave highs, before they plunge.

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Nasdaq 100 “Big Dip” Update.

The Nasdaq did not display a double bottom as it crashed well below the previous low, followed by a wild rally as well. We could be on the second set of a 1-2, 1-2 wave count, and a small third 1-2 wave may also show itself.  After that, any 5 wave structure will be harder and harder to see, but we would also be running out of degrees after a wave 4 in Minor degree has finished. This could take all of February to play out, so it’s not going to happen overnight.

Usually all 5 waves play out in a rapid fashion, but then this market will give us a hard time once an “A” wave in Intermediate degree has finished. There are still many variables that can happen, so until a new record low is achieved, this market can give us a hard time.

As I post the Nasdaq is pushing higher, but mid week can also be great reversal days.  Between the 5800 and 5600 price levels we could run into some strong resistance, so any 5th wave in Minor degree should be ending at that time as well.

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Nasdaq Intraday Record Highs Update: Still Going To The Moon!

This morning the stock bulls must have been hit with a tazer, as the markets jumped a bit. Well, this has been going for the full Month of January already, and it may last until the end of the month. I changed the wave count to a big zigzag, with what I show containing a long wave 1. I normally never count it his way, but in diagonal waves this could work as an ending diagonal as well.

The Nasdaq is just a bit short of 6980 which would be the number to beat. That could happen as soon as I post, but we should be setting up for another correction. We need this market to leave a nice vertical spike in the daily cash charts, as the weekly and monthly charts already have these huge spikes very visible.

We need a correction big enough so it can never come back and soar to record highs this year. The media will always focus on how much higher this market will go, but only a few talk about how low it can go.  Any 20% correction is the public definition of a bear market, but I know markets can correct 40% and 60%.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is at a bit over 5.22:1 which means it takes 5.22 gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq. This 5:1 range has not changed all that much as it may be double topping as well.  One day this Gold/Nasdaq ratio will shift again where it could reach a 1:1 ratio. This still could take a few years, but until it does this market is overbought and very expensive.

If you’re not a contrarian then be prepared for the stock bulls to trample you as they run for the exits yelling,” Fire”

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Nasdaq Rocket To The Moon!

I was compelled to post the Nasdaq again. The start of 2018 sure came in the a bang, or should I say the roar of a Falcon Heavy blasting off. I will use the December 2017 decline as a triangle as they seem to be pretty rare in financial history.  What a triangle tells me is that once the “thrust” is finished, I must also look for a higher degree.  We have no shortage of higher degrees to pick from as I could stack at least three more degree levels at this impending top.

This market needs a much bigger correction than what the majority thinks we are going to get. Being brainwashed by the 20% bear market guideline is a joke, when you look at the 2000-2002 Nasdaq crash.  A 20% correction would do nothing for all the fundamentals to re-adjust. From the early 2009 bottom, the Nasdaq soared with many corrections along the way. It wasn’t until the 2011 bottom that the markets switched into “Stock Mania Mode”.  Gold crashed, stocks and the US dollar soared.

From the early 2009 bottom to our present top calculates out as a 630% gain. That puts the other 4 indices I track, to shame.  All the wave counting in the world will mean very little if we don’t identify 2009-2018 as a 5 wave sequence, complete with an expanded wave 3-4 correction. My take is that this huge bull market is a single wave structure containing 5 waves in Intermediate degree.

Others may have a 5 wave count in Primary degree, but this tells me their past wave counts are in SC degree already. That’s just like time traveling on paper, but then all Fibonacci even numbers would not make any sense as well. These big degree wave analysts just love to be special, as they think because markets travel in big and tall waves, that we must be in a higher degree.

This is the furthest from the truth as big moves do stretch and extend making small degrees look like big degree moves.

At a minimum the Nasdaq chart above has to retrace it’s entire January move, and that is just to get warmed up. For a Cycle degree wave 3 to get confirmed we must get a 3 wave bearish move containing nothing higher than 3 Primary degree letters. At this time I will keep any big triangle pattern at the bottom of my list.

Big bull markets attract the crooks, trend chasers and the novice as well. Most investors don’t know what a “Bull Trap” is, because participants are biased all the time.

In the long run the Nasdaq should also go below the 2011 bull market correction, which would be the 2000 price level. The markets will be oversold before any real price bottom, even gets close. Ignoring the news on any insider buying at that time, will leave you stranded with just a small  token position, and in constant fear of the markets going lower. I’m sure insiders of most publicly listed companies do not show their fear when they buy low, because they know that the business cycle will return. It’s more like the solar cycles that are responsible for the business cycle, but politicians love to take credit for saving the stock markets.

This market seems to want to frustrate anyone that is bearish to early, but it takes time to switch mental states before it happens, as once it does start on its correction there will be no time for the majority to react.

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Nasdaq 2000-2017 Alternate Elliott Wave Count Review!

The big wave pattern of the Nasdaq has always been an issue from my perspective.  One of the main reasons is the great looking impulse that formed during the 2000-2002 decline. This single looking 5 wave impulse decline just does not fit very well, as it makes the 5 waves of a C5 pattern extremely short. (Running zigzag)  From the 2007 top to the 2009 bottom would have to be 5 waves in Minor degree.

 Any running zigzag breaks all descriptions of what a zigzag should look like. They should by all accounts, travel well below  the “A” wave bottom, which it never even came close to doing in 2009. 

Another pattern I show that I have, also does not fit well and that is I have the 2002 to 2007 rally as another zigzag. A small zigzag correcting a big zigzag, is extremely rare and I rarely count them out this way.  Just by moving the positions from 2002 to 2007 around, I can easily produce a running flat in a 4th wave position. 

Any bottom trend line is just a rough guide as a potential Cycle degree 4th wave decline could slice through this trend line with ease. 

In the long run the 2009 bottom still ends up as a 4th wave in Primary degree, after which 5 waves in Intermediate degree must follow. Any Cycle degree 4th wave correction once completed, would have to produce 5 waves up in Primary degree. It would still take Cycle degree wave 4 until 2020 or so to complete, so things should get very interesting in the next 2-3 years.  Solar cycle #25 is also due to start at the 2021 time period, so all bearish opinions and moods will be crushed at that time. 

This wave count is just an alternate wave count, as I prefer the 2000 peak as a potential expanded “B” wave top.  That 2000-2002 decline also shows what can happen when markets get repelled by the solar cycles. In the case of the 2000 peak, it was solar cycle #23 that killed the stock market. In 2014 the peak of sc#24 only produced a market correction.  I will bet that very few market analysts can tell you from memory, what caused the 2014-2015 correction. 

Chances are good I will use this wave count only for a very short time, as I may create my original expanded pattern again with a bit more detail.

All stock indices point towards a Cycle degree wave 3 top, but there still may be a bit of fooling around as only small degree bearish patterns may still be forming.

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Mini Nasdaq Weekly Chart 2009-2017 Bull Market Review

This morning the Nasdaq hit another record high of 6334 but may still add on more points before another correction is due. One trend line is all we need as two of them will not fit well.  Look at the angle of the bull market, and how it cuts very close to a 45 degree angle, or corner to corner.  How long this market can keep gyrating without a major correction is uncertain at this time, but markets do have a knack of fooling us with surprise moves.  I like to catch as many of the surprise moves that I can but it doesn’t always work that way. 

From my perspective, I have a clear vision of a single idealized wave count, and I use this idealized picture as my reference point, for all the different simple corrections that we may find. Most of all it is important to eliminate 2 of the corrective waves, but also to get the highest degree of this correction.  This helps in keeping all wave positions within Cycle degree, so we don’t  end up with the  SC or GSC degree forecast. Unless all Cycle degree peaks are found we can’t move forward into the next highest degree. 

The Nasdaq is about the best forming impulse wave, when compared to the others, but any 5th wave can be very choppy due to diagonal wave structures.  In 2016 we did have an expanded “B” wave top pattern, and it did not let us down as another leg up materialized.

Then from 2016,  the bull market started to go crazy which works best with extending the last 5th wave in Minor degree. It makes wave 1 and wave 5 about even, with wave 3 still being the longest and the extended wave. 

Harry Dent, who is just a book writer says the DOW will fall to 5000. When we actually go look we can see there is nothing down there, but it would take us back to 1996 price levels.  1996 coincides with the end of solar cycle#22 and the start of solar cycle #23, which just kept the bull market going. 

Now if the Nasdaq were to fall along with the DJIA then the Nasdaq could fall to 600-700. Again, there is nothing down at the 1996 price level to support anything,  so I know those numbers are arbitrary numbers,  picked out of thin air. Manipulating the masses with fear is very normal as it sells books. 

All this can take the next 3-4 years to play out and to surprise us again, the Nasdaq could stop well short of the 2009 bottom, before a brand new bull market starts with the start of solar cycle #25. 

I checked the Gold/Nasdaq ratio and it was 4.94. It took 4.94 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW, which is the most expensive ratio I have recorded in the last few years. The record expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio I have,  is about 4.  To get real cheap this ratio would have to get closer to 1.18 again. 

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Nasdaq Intraday New Record High: Going For The Moon!

Once again the Nasdaq soars to a new world record high. This morning the Nasdaq peaked at 6180 before it started to correct again. As we can see the Nasdaq has gone, “Vertical”  this morning.  These moves can never be maintained for very long, as a vertical move also represents speed. Besides that we have a 3 wave rally that has been pushed to new record highs.  It’s not 5 waves until waves 3-4-5 show up, and push it much higher one more time. 

Diagonal waves behave just like this so we have to wait it out to see if a 4th wave is going to form. Even bad trend lines will not help us very much as any 4th wave may find support at the 6120 price level.  We have about 3 trading sessions before the end of the month, so this market could still fool around by trying to go higher. If the last move is part of a zigzag, then a complete retracement can happen.

Do you think a bunch of traders were clicking “Buy Orders” this morning because they all reacted to some news all at the same time. Logic does not make the stock market go up and down, as raw emotions do. Even with computer trading and robot algorithms running the show, humans will interfere and usually screw things up. 

Besides a few scary intraday crashes, nothing became of  the 30 year 1987 crash anniversary date. Maybe Halloween will scare investors again, but it’s a pretty scary thought,  if this drags out until 2018.  What we are witnessing is a tech mania that can only end badly. The talking heads will use every excuse under the sun to ignore the fundamentals, and keep reminding us there is nothing to fear as we are in a secular bull market with many years left to go.

I doubt that can happen as insiders have left the “Building” in May of 2017. Only the emotional traders are left in this market, and they could be trapped, because they all can’t get out at the same time.   

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Nasdaq 1998-2017 Elliott Wave Count Review

What we do know is that the Nasdaq walks to a different drummer compared to the other 4 indices. The main issue is that great looking 5 wave decline from the 2000 peak to the 2002 bottom. This sequence cannot fit into any present zigzag we may want to have, and the 2007 peak sure does not fit into a truncated pattern.  I sure don’t feel comfortable using the 2007 peak as a truncated pattern, but this 2007 peak fits well with all the other main indices I cover.

What it all means from my perspective is that we need several alternates going at the same time.  I also show a Megaphone pattern at this time, that may mean nothing in the long run. I would be producing false trend line expectations, if I use two parallel lines.  The question will remain, what is the most likely degree level and wave position, now forming in October of 2017?

The Nasdaq just finished a 6010 peak, with no guarantee that it will stop tomorrow or the next day.  A general guideline how deep the next bear market  can get is what we think is the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  This would be that the Nasdaq can retrace most all of its bull market since the 2009 bottom.  The first price level when the Nasdaq enters this previous 4th wave would be at about the 2000 price level. 2000 can be a happy even numbered target, as the markets just love even numbers.

I believe that the 2002 and the 2007 bottom of the Nasdaq represents a major base with the 2002 bottom crashing to the 1996 market lows. 1996 and 2008 are two solar cycle lows and if the markets ever cross both of these lows, I would be very surprised. It’s the markets job to fool everybody all the time, and it would not surprise me if the 2009 bottom never gets retraced by more than 100%.

This future 2000 price level would also come very close to completely retrace, the stock mania that started in 2011. Years ending in 7 can cause great turmoil in the markets, like it has done many times before. The VIX will also move as fear comes back into the market place.

The majority may only be expecting a short correction, but that will never happen if our degree levels are off by one degree.  There is a big difference between a Minor degree wave 3 peak or a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. Only time can eventually confirm a wave count, which may take until solar cycle #25 starts in the 2020-2021 time period.

So far the Nasdaq is one index that can give us a lot of grief.  Once the majority hates stocks again, but insiders are buying as a group, then we could see a surprise reversal back into a bull market.

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Nasdaq Intraday New Record High Review

The markets decide where they want to go and obviously still too early for the beginning of a bear market. This is only a quick count in what could be an ending diagonal, with the last part being a poorly formed 5th wave. Other indices are also getting very close to new record tops so there is still life left in the stock party.   We ended on a nice little spike this morning and a correction should be expected.  Of course, any bigger decline would be welcomed, and 2 or three obvious support levels must eventually be completely retraced. 

I don’t have a better wave count at this time, but a new world record high is always important. In line mode the new high looks more like a double top but still registers a higher peak by just a fraction of a point.  Short term this produces a bad pattern to count from. The VIX has kept on with its decline and is now approaching the $10 price level. Bear attacks always come as a surprise to most and I’m sure the next bearish move down will also be a surprise. 

Short term we can still see this bullish action, but long term I’m bearish as insiders left the building a long time ago. Not until the contrarians report that insiders are once again buying as a group will it be “safe”. Other indicators would have to come together as well, and the markets will become massively oversold before we reach any major bearish bottom.  Many reported that the Nasdaq touched 6000 but this happened with a spike. In line mode this turned out to be about 5991. 

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Nasdaq Intraday Update


This morning the Nasdaq spiked and then reversed very quickly. It looks like a nice run that can keep right on going to the moon, but emotions have a real problem of infecting others, when they are sealed in a space suit, so emotions going to the moon is not an option.  😯 

If the bigger bearish phase is in control, then it’s not rocket science that the Nasdaq has to fall below 5560. Of course, if you’re a climate scientist, then anything goes, until you’re caught manipulating the numbers. 

So far the Nasdaq has been leading the way on a sliding path heading south, in what could be a Cycle degree 4th wave correction. This Cycle degree could take until the 2021 time period to play out, as 2021 could be the start of  solar cycle #25. The last thing we should be at the start of any solar cycle is to maintain a bearish outlook. All bearish opinions and bearish wave positions at that time, will get terminated, just like what happened in 2008-2009.  2021 is also 89 years from the 1932 bottom, so from my perspective it has significant meaning. 

Looking 3-4 years ahead in the markets is never a certainty, but the only certainty is that the majority can never take advantage of it, when another major buying low presents itself. 

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Mini Nasdaq Intraday Update

Since the bottom of the 15th of June, the Nasdaq has rallied which counts out as 5 waves. Since the 4th wave overlaps any first wave, this throws out any impulse, we may think we have.  Any impulse, that we could still be in must be an extended wave 3, as we would have to switch this move to a wave 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count.  Any impulse count would send the Nasdaq into new record highs, with very little problems. 

Insider Selling Skyrockets in May

Insider selling soared in May,  which does not bode well for the stock markets to continue into outer space.  I’m looking for some type of 5 wave decline as they indicate the direction of a new trend. The Nasdaq has not broken anymore world records for well over 2 weeks. When the markets do not keep on making record highs, investors and day traders will get pissed off and sell, if they no longer see that they are making gains in a stock bull market. Of course the bull market may have ended already, but since the herd is pretty slow, they may not figure this out, until the markets reach that popular 20% correction price level.  

When they do realize that the 20% dip is here and they claim a 20% bear market, then I would expect this market to make a huge counter rally. That could take the rest of the year to play out, but the last few weeks in October could give us a market crash much like 1987 did 30 years ago.   It only took 3 years for a major bear market to play out from 1929 to 1932, so why should a bear market with one lower degree, be any longer?

Of course doom and gloom is the name of the game as fear is a tool to control the masses. By far the biggest use of fear is done in man-made climate change theory. 

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Nasdaq Intraday Review: A Leading Indicator?

All the stock indices I cover will be moved to the September months and no more June contracts will be posted.  At this time it sure looks like the Nasdaq is still leading a charge heading down. Even though it looks great, as the start of a potential diagonal decline.  We have to remain vigilant because these declines can roar back in spectacular fashion.

Not until we see consistent inverted zigzags or flats, will we know that a bigger decline is in store for stocks. Many times flats  or complex flats develop in the “B” wave of a zigzag so flats can provide the half way pattern between the A5 and C5 set of waves.  

I would love to see any peak hold just so we can work on a different trend than this rambling on and off again bull market. 

That may be too much to ask for, so the rest of this week and next week could help confirm that our recent tech bubble top will hold.  All my work is done with Cycle degree being the largest degree I’m working. This makes all the Primary and Intermediate degree moves extremely important turning points. Minor and Minute degree waves can be the degree that shows up from hiding when patterns extend.  If you think that wave degrees cannot hide, then just look at gold in 1999! 

I may not have the time on Friday to get in updates but I will add a few postings later in the day or Satuday morning.  

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Mini Nasdaq Intraday Crash Review On A Full Moon!

This morning the markets peaked and then proceeded to decline with gusto and a sense of purpose. It is still declining as I post so hopefully we will get more than just another simple correction.   Until we see a clearly defined sequence, all options are still open.   From here on it will be important to follow the intraday patterns to figure out early if we are heading down with diagonal wave structures.

The top was more like a pure diagonal 5th wave slightly extended. Hopefully we have a long anticipated new trend to look forward to, as this so called bull market is getting pretty boring. I love bear markets as they are a real challenge and the thought of a Cycle degree 4th wave correction will keep us busy in finding the turnings, in a market that can have 3 variables. A zigzag, flat or a triangle, are the simple choices with the triangle being the very last pattern I would expect.  It make take a while, but Cycle degree wave 3 should be our new largest degree top. 

We are not in SC or even GSC degree as those wave counts are based on 4th wave bottoms which are all 5th wave extensions. All my Elliott Wave work is on a wave 2 base. In other words wave threes must be the longest wave in the general stock market. 

Besides 5th waves are always the weakest an only rarely does the 5th wave extend. 1987 to the 2000 peak was a 5th wave extension in Minor degree. 

I looked at the date and saw that today is the full moon, which is usually bullish for stocks. This time the full moon gave us an exact turning day. This does not happen consistently, but the moon dates sure can give us potential reversals.  

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Nasdaq New Record Highs Again.

Once again, the Nasdaq sets another record, and it still might not be finished.  The big 5 wave sequence, I’m presently working,  had its start back in March 2017. In mid May the Nasdaq crashed again with a fast sudden move to the downside. That May crash, fits very well as a 4th wave, so looking for the 5th wave peak is the task at hand. Of course they rarely cooperate as extensions can come out of hiding at any time. 

Even though the 5th wave rally is 5 waves in Minuette degree, there would still be a full 4 degree levels that can come out of hiding, which can make any sequence take longer in time and higher in price.   The say June can be very bearish for stocks, but I haven’t seen any evidence of that just yet.  There is no way we can rush the markets, and no amount of fundamental excuses will turn any market before it is time.

We could work this with very bullish wave counts and then suddenly the markets will make their last highs and then proceed with a new trend heading back down. 

Right now this market is still heading up, and wild moves should be expected. 

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Nasdaq 100 E-Mini, Another Great Intraday Top

Early this morning, the Nasdaq created yet another spike to new record highs, before it slumped again. Until stocks start to show  a consistent declining pattern, we are never sure that this peak will hold.  I would love to see this market start heading much  lower during the rest of this week, as it is long overdue for at least another correction,  or the end of the big 8 year trend. 

Just like all the other indices, the Nasdaq should eventually peak at a Cycle degree wave 3 top as well.  Finding the exact wave that makes any top is very important as all other wave counts are based on it. Of course, those pesky expanded flats throw a monkey wrench into any wave count. 

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Nasdaq Intraday Bull Market Update: Down To The Wire

Once again the Nasdaq is down to the wire before breaking to  a new record high. The sharp drop in May could have been part of an expanded pattern which, if it is true always sends the markets to newer highs. Apple, which is the big elephant in the room will not maintain its price no matter how many freaking iPhone 8 models that the experts figure it can sell. 

On this Thursday we are going to hit the new moon date, followed by a holiday on Monday. The new moon dates can produce dramatic reversals in stocks, plus we are getting closer to the end of the month as well.  If we reach a new record high, then the next correction should go much deeper, than what we have had so far. The entire rally that started back in mid April would also be completely retraced. Eventually the entire Trump rally will also be left in the dust, which the US dollar has already done.  

A new record high will force the Cycle degree wave 3 to be moved to a new home.  All my work on this blog is dedicated to tracking and confirming all the historical 5 wave sequences in Cycle degree.  My goal is to find a permanent home for Cycle degree waves 3-4-5, as without them no SC or GSC degree wave patterns can develop.

My work is at a minimum 2 degrees lower than what the majority of expert wave analyses is working with, and back in 2000 my wave count now is a minimum of 4 degree levels lower. 

 

 

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Nasdaq Intraday Review: Charging To New Record Highs!

 

In just a few days the Nasdaq had finished a correction before it charged up, breaking yet another world record at the 5687 price level.  Warren Buffett will become a god again as his purchase of Apple stocks proves to be correct.  Have they ever thought about it,  when Warren Buffett stops buying?  I’m sure we will see a reaction with the Nasdaq, as it can produce rather dramatic reversals. 

We have a huge open gap below, which will be the first price target area, before the gap will get closed off.  This last little 5th wave is so choppy that it can only fit into another diagonal or a stretched out ending diagonal will also work. Apple is inside the Nasdaq, but this morning Apple also reached a new record, with the Gold/Apple ratio.  A new extreme ratio this morning touched 7.85. This means that one ounce of gold can only buy 7.85 Apple shares. This is the most expensive ratio I have calculated since I started tracking the Gold/Apple ratios.  Today it takes about 4.67 gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq, so that is also breaking a new record.  

Folks, we are at record breaking historic market highs, which will not end well. I’m also very confident that the majority of  expert wave analysts,  are one or two degrees higher than all of my work. EWI and others see a depression coming, as chances are good, that new records below 2009 lows will happen. Any single degree can put us off by 61%, which is the (. 618)  Fibonacci ratio. 

Can this still drag out and go higher? Sure, it can but overpriced stock mania bubbles have a tendency to go pop! 

At best we are at a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree, and therefore we should get a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom. This is not Elliott Wave rocket science as our little blue book tells exactly what is supposed to happen, after a 4th wave in Cycle degree has completed. My take on this is that the markets have one main job,  and that is to fool all the wave analysts. There is a very good chance that the markets will “never” go below 2009 price levels, just to try and fool all of us.  Hell,  the markets will already be in a massive oversold condition,  before price levels will ever get close to that 2009 bottom. 

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Nasdaq Intraday Review: Soaring To Record Highs

 

Since mid April the Nasadq has gone nuts, which any sane wave analysts would label as a small 5 degree impulse wave.  The fact is that most waves are not pretty impulse waves, but they can be diagonal waves instead. Diagonals are when zigzags are connected together.  In the bigger scheme of things the 5th wave is always the weakest and only rarely the longest.  This rally has nothing to do with power or excellent fundamentals, but it has more to do about fear of being left behind. 

Yesterday the Nasdaq hit a new record high at the 5640 price level, and now sure looks like it has started another potential diagonal set of waves heading down.

It is also a good idea to take a Gold/Nasdaq ratio calculation, which sits at 4.50:1. It takes 4.50 gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq, which is the most expensive reading for all of 2017 so far.  At anytime a new record high, can be the last record high which would then knock the Nasdaq over onto the bearish side.   It only takes the smallest degree for this to happen, and then the markets are very vulnerable to bad fundamental news.  A great  fundamental reason, why stocks are going down can always be exploited with the, “Geopolitical” excuse.  Of course, they will dream up also sorts of other reasons when you give the mainstream more time.

All the bullish forecasting in the world, can turn out to be very useless, when the Greatest Fool has already bought.  The Market Vane report has hit record highs as well, so this sure chokes of any smart money left to come in. 

To say the least I have a very bearish slant, so I will look for these waves that help support that outlook. The last thing I’m looking for is any SC degree or any GSC degree wave counts.  All the Cycle degree peaks must be labeled first, and then they must hold, with a very high degree of confidence.

Imagine if we crash to a SC degree 4th wave bottom, what is the idealized wave count that we would need or that must come next?  The book tells us exactly what we need, and that pattern would be 5 waves up in Cycle degree.   All that would have to happen before we even get close to where GSC degree wave counting is required. 

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Nasdaq 2000-2017 Elliott Wave Count Review

I’m sure we can find places of contention in the above wave count, especially from the 2000 peak to the 2002 bottom. By all means this decline can be counted out as a fairly good declining impulse.  Easy wave counts are for suckers as the markets will always send us some easy wave counts. The easy wave counts are the traps, making us think we found the next best thing, since sliced bread! 

I have looked at the 2000 peak as an expanded flat, but then the rest of the waves will not fit very well. I can work the decline as a double zigzag, followed by a “D” wave bull market, to the 2007 peak. Another 3 wave crash into the depths of 2009, which did not go to new lows.  What are we going to do with that odd ball 2008-2009 crash?  I use it as a running triangle “E” wave, and from that  2009 bottom, the Nasdaq blasted into an 8 year bull market.

It formed closer to a good impulse than any other market I keep wave positions on, as this wave count is also relatively zigzag free. 

The majority of wave analysts had the most bearish wave counts at the 2009 bottom, but yet the markets soared beyond anything imaginable in  2009. They tried the exact same wave count in 2000-2002 and that bear market also failed. I’m sure nothing will change the next time, when we arrive at another major bearish bottom.

This market is one of the most hyped up markets we have seen in a very long time, and my bet is that it will be a Cycle degree wave 3 top, and not some SC or GSC degree related pattern. 

To stay within a certain degree level you have to count out all the idealized wave structures, as  you would need them to help us to confirm our location. The difference between an Intermediate degree set of 5 waves, and a Primary degree set is huge, (. 618) or 60% as it is the cutoff point between two different worlds.  Being out by 60% between degree levels is not my idea of having fun wave counting. 

The Nasdaq is at record highs, which makes it still vulnerable to a surprise bull attack. It may still take this month before we find out for sure, but the writing is on the wall.

Updated March, 18, 2017

 

 

I thought I would add another version of the Nasdaq in Linear scale. Linear scale shows the stock bubble in a more dramatic fashion. I believe that the 2009 to 2017 stock bull market showed more of a pure impulse than any other wave pattern I have been working. The only way this will work at this time, is that the bear market from 2000 to 2009 ended with  a running triangle.  As of March 2017 we can be very close to another major top  that would give us a Cycle degree bear market.  I looked over the COT reports, and it looks like the commercial traders have net short positions, with most of the indices, I keep wave positions on.  These are bearish indicators, besides the Market Vane Bullish Consensis Report, is coming off fresh record highs as well.

At this time it is far too early to give an accurate, Cycle degree 4th wave bottom price target, as we don’t know if a zigzag or a flat is going to happen. If the early declines look like a set of 5 waves, then this could work as part of the leading zigzag to a flat. 3-3-5. My least favorite bear market pattern would be a triangle, as we would not have enough time, to complete a triangle by 2020, or even in the next 3-4 years.

By that 2020 time frame, solar cycle #25 is going to trash every bearish mood and every bearish fundamentals we can dream up. Especially all high degree bearish wave counts. 

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom does “NOT” have to fall below the 2009 lows, but can stop well short of that bottom as well.  I can imagine all the expert wave analysts calling for the markets to go much lower when in fact, they should be accumulating major bullish positions.  Just like the 2009 bottom, the contrarians have figured this out a long time ago, while the wave counters were still dicking around, making a bunch of mindless numbers and letters. 

The EWP is a very powerful analytical tool, but very inefficient if we ignore all the sentiment and ratio readings. 

 

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Nasdaq 100 Intraday Bull Market Record High Review

 

As usual, The Nasdaq walks to a different drummer. It has push higher at the intraday level, creating this new record top. So far we ended at about the 5440 price level, before the Nasdaq made a mad reversal.  These are the types of tops I look for, and hopefully no double top comes along and tries to make it more difficult.  In the end the markets will always react in such a fashion,  to never allow the majority to make any money. Some cry manipulation right away, but then the “manipulators” must manipulate the Elliott Wave Principles as well.

It is impossible for the majority to make any money from the very majority that are trying to do the same thing.   They think they are up and in the green with their portfolios, but in the end that is where the paper profits stay for the majority.

If this continues down this week and next, then I may have room to find a home for Cycle degree wave 3, otherwise we have to take one day at a time. 

This 8 year bull market with the Nasdaq, fits into an impulse much better that any other index.  Even a good expanded wave 4  in 2015 was thrown in for dramatic effect.  

I have been recording many Gold/Nasdaq ratios which work a bit differently, by figuring out how many ounces it takes to buy one unit of the Nsadaq.

The more ounces it takes to buy the Nasdaq, the more expensive it becomes.  This ratio is sitting at 4.40:1 today.  One of my lowest readings was a ratio of  1.18:1. This establishes two extreme ratios, we can use. Using ratios is a more objective approach in looking at the markets, and I have integrated them into my version of the EWP.  

Many of the stats today, are far worse than any top since 2000 so that alone can make this market become very bearish. 

I also receive a weekly report from Market Vane  which started in 1964. They survey many participants to establish how many bulls are in the market on any day.  These sentiment readings also have extremes which show during the last 24 month period. Out of 100 %,  we will never get zero, or 100% readings.  A low bull count can be anything below 10% and a high count can be anything above 90%.  Basically at the high end all the bulls are in, and only the stragglers are left.

With the Nasdaq we have registered 91% bulls, with a high of 87 last week. I think that this 91% number is it, and that we are going down the slope of  the disappearing bulls.  Just like all gold ratios, the Market Vane Bullish Concensous Report is also another objective method to use, when looking at the markets. 

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