I was compelled to post the Nasdaq again. The start of 2018 sure came in the a bang, or should I say the roar of a Falcon Heavy blasting off. I will use the December 2017 decline as a triangle as they seem to be pretty rare in financial history. What a triangle tells me is that once the “thrust” is finished, I must also look for a higher degree. We have no shortage of higher degrees to pick from as I could stack at least three more degree levels at this impending top.
This market needs a much bigger correction than what the majority thinks we are going to get. Being brainwashed by the 20% bear market guideline is a joke, when you look at the 2000-2002 Nasdaq crash. A 20% correction would do nothing for all the fundamentals to re-adjust. From the early 2009 bottom, the Nasdaq soared with many corrections along the way. It wasn’t until the 2011 bottom that the markets switched into “Stock Mania Mode”. Gold crashed, stocks and the US dollar soared.
From the early 2009 bottom to our present top calculates out as a 630% gain. That puts the other 4 indices I track, to shame. All the wave counting in the world will mean very little if we don’t identify 2009-2018 as a 5 wave sequence, complete with an expanded wave 3-4 correction. My take is that this huge bull market is a single wave structure containing 5 waves in Intermediate degree.
Others may have a 5 wave count in Primary degree, but this tells me their past wave counts are in SC degree already. That’s just like time traveling on paper, but then all Fibonacci even numbers would not make any sense as well. These big degree wave analysts just love to be special, as they think because markets travel in big and tall waves, that we must be in a higher degree.
This is the furthest from the truth as big moves do stretch and extend making small degrees look like big degree moves.
At a minimum the Nasdaq chart above has to retrace it’s entire January move, and that is just to get warmed up. For a Cycle degree wave 3 to get confirmed we must get a 3 wave bearish move containing nothing higher than 3 Primary degree letters. At this time I will keep any big triangle pattern at the bottom of my list.
Big bull markets attract the crooks, trend chasers and the novice as well. Most investors don’t know what a “Bull Trap” is, because participants are biased all the time.
In the long run the Nasdaq should also go below the 2011 bull market correction, which would be the 2000 price level. The markets will be oversold before any real price bottom, even gets close. Ignoring the news on any insider buying at that time, will leave you stranded with just a small token position, and in constant fear of the markets going lower. I’m sure insiders of most publicly listed companies do not show their fear when they buy low, because they know that the business cycle will return. It’s more like the solar cycles that are responsible for the business cycle, but politicians love to take credit for saving the stock markets.
This market seems to want to frustrate anyone that is bearish to early, but it takes time to switch mental states before it happens, as once it does start on its correction there will be no time for the majority to react.