Nasdaq Intraday Bearish Review

The Nasdaq was rolling over in July already which works like a diagonal starting out. If we’re lucky the patterns will smooth out a bit but that may also be wishful thinking at this point.

With there being a potential Cycle degree correction (Bear Market) the markets have a long way to go before we could expect a return to a real bull market.

This may not happen until solar cycle 25 dominates sunspot activity.  Our present little rally looks like another bearish rally and if that is true then the 7400 and 7200 price level will not hold.

The 7000 price level is another potential price target for some more support but eventually, the 7000 price level will not hold as well.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio got better at 5 but is still a far cry from being the cheapest of 1.18.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio doesn’t have to go that cheap but it sure would help to see the ratio get better than 3:1.

The commercials for the Nasdaq are net short but not by any extreme amount. The speculators have the opposite side of this deal as they are all pile onto the long side. Both parties can’t be right so sooner or later one side is going to panic.

 

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Quick Nasdaq Intraday Review

July 16, looks like the last record high and since then the Nasdaq has made some wild moves that could be the start of a new trend.  Lower highs are not yet visible or long enough but all it takes is one more new record low which can get investors into a mini panic.

Antitrust investigations can get investors nervous as the stories are out that the SEC has officially started investigations of the “FANG” stocks.

Some analysts are very bullish on stocks as we hear stories about a melt-up is coming. Any potential melt-up is pretty hard to swallow at this time as it would start at world record highs. A melt-up from this point is next to impossible as the Gold/Nasdaq ratio is already super expensive at 5.6.

Commercials are net short but yet not quite extreme enough.

We are getting closer and closer to the fall and the fall time period can produce some ugly melt-downs.

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Nasdaq 100 E-Mini: 2000-2019 Wedge Review

Without a doubt, the Nasdaq marches to a different drummer as the 2007 peak never reached new record highs as most other indices did during that rally. For now, the pattern from the 2000 peak to the 2009 bottom can work as a zigzag but it would have to be a “Running Zigzag”  or what the book calls “Truncated”.

The 2009 bottom is still my Primary degree bottom followed by a blistering bull market. Drawing the trend line across the two tops and one trend line up from the 2009 bottom, what do we end up with?

We have the mother of all “Rising Wedges” starting to squeeze the two trends into the cone or “Apex” of the wedge. What do you think will happen when the stock bulls keep getting squeezed into a corner? I will include the link from Investopedia that has a good explanation regarding “Rising Wedges”. 

All investors are distracted with the fundamentals while the “Big Wedge” is giving us a very bearish warning.

I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction but the Nasdaq has no short term support that I can see at this time. Above all the impending bearish phase should be obvious but the crowd may not know until they see it in hindsight. A lot of good that does us unless we take “Hindsight” and always turn it into “Foresight”. The simple answer is that if we ignore the financial past we are doomed to repeat it. All sources of better fitting wave counts are found in “Hindsight” not by flipping our present wave counts thousands of times.

We still have time before solar cycle 24 ends so hang onto your hat, as the winds can change direction and start blowing in from the North West!

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Nasdaq Intraday Bull Market Review

It seems tech investors only see a rosy future as all the fundamental changes that the trade wars are producing are being ignored.  Markets move because of hope and greed but on the next correction disappointment and fear will suddenly come back.

At 7900 the Nasdaq is approaching record highs and another double top as well.

I know I have complained that there should be “No” 5th wave positions uncapped, well I broke that rule 5 times and even for the 6th time as I have Primary degree wave 5 still not included. 6 sets of 5th wave tops are pretty rare as I have run out of space at the top.

A small gap has also formed so in a mini panic this gap should have little problem in getting filled. Analysts talk about the market’s bull run just getting started. A melt-up is sure to come, based on the hope that the trade wars will end.

When the majority are bullish then who is left to come in when the experts are screaming bullish sentiment 24/7?  Of course when the bears attack they will be screaming just as loud to get out of stocks.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is at 5.57 this morning with 6.38 being the expensive record to beat. Real cheap would be about 1.18 so there is a long way to go price wise before the Nasdaq becomes cheap again.

It would be a good laugh if the Nasdaq was held up due to highly processed veggie burgers (BYND) and dog treats (CHWY).

It’s also a new moon today followed by Independence Day celebrations on July 4th which can produce surprise reversals on Friday!

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Update

The huge Head&Shoulder pattern now stands out very well as the Nasdaq started to implode in the first part of May.  In a wild and wooly bull market, the right shoulder would never hold and in this case, the Nasdaq has already declined far enough to create some serious damage to investors portfolios.

I think trillions of dollars have been wiped off the books already and I’m sure more will still go up in a puff of electronic smoke.  We have until about June 21 when this contract month has to move to the September month which can cause some more convulsions that few are expecting.

I’m expecting a Cycle degree correction with an Intermediate degree bottom still very far away.  If the December bottom is true as an Intermediate degree bottom then we can visualize where my new “A” wave may come in at. This would be close to the 5800 price level.

I’m sure the stock bulls will offer their life so that the bears can have a great barbecue this summer.

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Nasdaq Intraday Crash Update

The Nasdaq is the furthest along in its bearish move as it’s closer to what might end up being a double bottom and a Head and Shoulder pattern.  It could take the rest of May to find out as the right shoulder is what’s important. A bullish bottom could push the Nasdaq back up, but if the bears are still in control, then the right shoulder will never hold.

Even though I have seen these H&S patterns many times before, they can all react differently.  If you use your hand and see it as a “Middle Finger” and two knuckles, then chances are good that the market is sending tech investors a signal.

The trade war is all about a tech war and it’s disrupting every major distribution channel around the world. It’s no longer just one thing for any bearish fundamentals as climate change is supposed to be destroying our world!

I’m bearish longer-term until I see the Gold/Nasdaq ratio get much cheaper. Sure the Gold/Nasdaq ratio at 5.7:1 is better, but that is still miles away from becoming cheap. The commercial hedgers are not that bearish so that can produce some surprise moves as well.

If you think that 5G is going to produce utopia here on earth then think again, when there is not enough electricity being produced in the world to support it. One big solar flare can send us back to the stone age pretty quick but yet the majority of experts ignore the power of the sun and its cycles.

It would be a sick joke to have to build nuclear reactors just to keep the internet of things running. (5G).

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Update

The Nasdaq finally created a new world record high today at 7715.  In the next day or so it still could push higher which would make the present spike a bit longer. The longer the spike the better as that usually indicates a longer impending correction.  Correction? It all depends on how big any impending correction will be.

If all this bullish hype is going to continue then we should be just looking for a correction, right?  The other side of the coin is that this bull market is coming to an end at a double top creating a big H&S at the same time.

A temporary correction would just create the “Right Shoulder” but then blast to another new record high.  The 2019 rally was one vertical move as good subdivisions were hard to count out as it’s loaded with diagonal waves.

Easter will be a full moon so by next week it could get very interesting.

Commercials are barley net short so they don’t really confirm any bearish scenario I can come up with, but that also means this market can go in any direction.  All it takes is some “Bad News” from any source in the world and the emotional investors could run for the hills.

Protective sell stops are stacking up below present prices, mostly around the bull market bottoms of corrections.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is more of an objective look at stocks if they are cheap or expensive when compared to the US dollar gold cash price.  My record expensive ratio is 6.38:1, today this ratio sits at 6.03:1. The Nasdaq is about as expensive as it has ever been, so it sure would be ripe for a major correction.

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Near Record Highs

The Nasdaq is getting close to new record highs which would soon be a double top, as well as an H&S pattern being set up.   I extended the past for now which will allow the Nasdaq to break to new record highs.

Right shoulders would have to break out in a very bullish fashion, but if this is still a diagonal bearish rally then the right shoulder would produce resistance.

Other indices are not this close to breaking out so the Nasdaq would be marching to a different drummer again.

It seems nothing is stopping this bull market at this time, but we also know that “Bad News” can come out of nowhere and blindside all those investors that are bullish.

The COT reports for the Nasdaq are just about even which offers no special insight as to any new direction.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has backed off from record-breaking ratios and sits at 5.82:1 this morning.  This is cheaper than the 6.38:1 record established on September 5th, 2018. The Nasdaq is still very expensive when we use gold as money.

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Nasdaq Intraday Buy On The Dip?

In my opinion, buying into anything that has gone vertical will turn into a disaster because we don’t know how big any dip is going to be. Everybody on the planet thinks this market is going to soar and maybe it will.

If this market is still going to add another super leg to it, then this market has to show or develop something that can clearly work as a correction. That is always a tough call since nothing screws up a wave count worse than another diagonal decline.

So far the Nasdaq has made its last dash to the upside a day after the full moon has arrived which doesn’t happen too often.  March is always a good turning month and we have about 6 trading days left before the end of the month.

If this decline keeps going then the chances get dramatically reduced that a new record high is going to happen in the next week.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is at 5.76:1, which is down from 6.38:1 and still nowhere in being cheap when compared to gold.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Review

Since late 2018 the Nasdaq has created a bottom and has been on a bullish move that is hard to imagine that it could still be in a bear market rally.  Only time can give us an answer and at this time there still is a good chance that a new record high is going to be established. If that is the case then the right side should eventually push that flat line up.

A right shoulder in a bull market would push much higher again, but if a bearish turn awaits us then the right shoulder would just crash.  I would give that right shoulder about a 50-60% price retracement and after that, a complete bull market failure can still happen.

At the beginning of bull markets, right shoulders fail to hold back the bears most of the time, but when we are closer to the end of a bullish phase, the right shoulder is less likely to hold.

Last week the Market Vane report showed that on the 12th  there were 68% bulls present. That is down from a 24 month high of 91%.  The more bulls present in the survey the less chance of a big bunch of stock bulls still to come in.  Of course, the only way the bullish herd can push it higher is if they just came out of a secret tunnel they’ve been hiding in. 🙂

God knows the world has been on a massive tunnel digging spree, maybe there is a big group of stock bulls living in the Center of the Earth!

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is always at work and you won’t find any ratio in your analytical toolbox. The Gold/Ratio of anything always gives us a reading when something is expensive or cheap when compared to a Troy ounce of gold, in US dollars.

A cheap reading once was 1.18:1 and my most expensive reading was 6.38:1. Today the Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 5.61:1 which still makes the Nasdaq very expensive.

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Review

Several wave counts I was working on have now started to break down and no longer fit. This always calls for a review and at this time the obvious move is my Cycle degree wave 3 August 2018 peak.  The December 2018 bottom and our present rally display more and impulse wave than a counter rally wave.   Many rallies in the past also showed 5 waves up but ended up getting completely retraced.

The Nasdaq is still under a Death Cross and now has run up against the 200-day MA line. If this trend is going to continue then at least the 200-day MA can offer some resistance, but a bear market rally can completely retrace this entire bullish phase. Only time will tell but the tech is taking a beating around the world as its being used to brainwash all of us. Our smartphones have already turned us into digital zombies and governments use it to spy on everybody!

The recent attacks on the Australian parliament are just small examples of how tech is being used to try and control us. Every democratic government is coming under attack and Canada is no exception.

If you think I’m paranoid, I have a reason to be since my Facebook account got hacked last year. How many times have you heard about a Bitcoin robbery and hacked accounts with hundreds of millions gone missing?  As you walk the street or are just shopping, look up to the nearest cam and wave, as we are constantly being spied on.  Soon when you are caught doing something illegal they can fine you, and steal the fine out of your account by the time you cross the street.

All this may sound crazy but I’m reading about that stuff all the time. We haven’t even touched social media as it is the biggest spreader of false news today.  The point is that tech comes in cycles and a bearish cycle is on its way.

The expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio topped out at 6.38:1 and today this ratio stands at 5.25:1. We have a long way to go before the Nasdaq becomes cheap again when compared to gold.  Short term the markets can head higher but there are large amounts of protective sell stops below all present prices.

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Nasdaq Intraday Record High Update

Just a quick Nasdaq update this morning as I think another major turning is near. The speed that stock bulls have returned is very impressive, and other analysts have noticed it as well.  Even though the markets look bullish, they can fool us because they are just big bear market rallies.

Investors forget, don’t care or were not old enough to experience the 2007-2009 decline, but investors bought in at the peaks as well.  So far it is nice to see a potential turning into another new month, which could turn February very bearish. In simple terms, bear market rallies always retrace themselves, back to the point of origin of December 2018! Any price dip below 5800 will work, but the Nasdaq will not just stop dead in its tracks, but March could end up being very bullish again. Lack of data is haunting the markets as even farmers are temporarily blinded due to back-log economic data. The problem with all that fundamental data (news) is that much of it is lagging and or manipulated.

Investors were surprised that the rate hikes may be taking a “pause”, but investors can take that as bad news, as a recession followed everytime they paused.  Sure, many tech companies surged but Facebook doesn’t justify its move at all. FB developed a huge gap to the upside, and any gap has a 90% chance of getting filled. Since my Facebook account got hacked a few months back, I have started to reduce my digital footprint.

Apple has security concerns with its Facetime app and it seems that all smartphones are just spying tools.

Another bearish reason is the Gold/Nasdaq ratio. At 6.38:1 it’s an expensive ratio.  This morning it was 5.25:1. There’s a long way to go down before the Nasdaq and other indices become cheap again.

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Nasdaq Bull Market Or Bear Rally?

So far the markets have refused to die, as they keep on ticking and heading higher. Many are convinced the correction is over and higher highs are coming. Dynamic bullish moves like this happen in bear market rallies frequently and most of the time they never last that long as well.  From a Cycle degree perspective, every bear market rally gets retraced which in the Nasdaq started from the 5900 price level.   Any move below this 5900 price level would confirm that our present rally was just another fake.

If investors are getting fooled with just a Minor degree bullish move then there is little hope in convincing anyone that there are Primary degree bear market rallies.

The SP500, DJIA and the Midcaps all seem to match this Nasdaq rally on the intraday scale, which I think is a bear market rally. The Nasdaq has dipped into the previous wave 2 which automatically makes it a diagonal pattern. The Nasdaq has already backed off but another short spike may still turn up.

The COT reports are unreliable until after the government goes back to work. This is when the gold ratio database is helpful how expensive or cheap the markets are when we always calculate using the futures gold cash price.  My new record for the Gold/Nasdaq ratio was 6.38:1, and today it is at 5.1:1. This is a bit cheaper but still on the extreme expensive side. Cheap was 1.18:1, so I would like to see a 3:1 or even a 2:1 ratio.

 

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Cycle Degree Crash Update.

All support for 2018 has now vanished with nothing but empty space below. It’s not completely empty as there are always some protective stops below. I’m sure that many are looking to get-out as the majority of analysts now call it a bear market. It’s always easy to call something in hindsight, but that is always too late.  We are going to find out if the current crop of talking heads can pick the next strong bottom.

We still have a long way to go even thought we are getting some great looking spikes to the downside. It all looks good as a 5 wave run in Minor degree. Usually about 3 sets of 1-2 wave show up but the rest may never be seen as they are just to small. Right now I have 3 sets showing after wave 2 in Minor degree, so we should start to run into ending wave 3s. A quick scan of the commercial positions has not switched to the positive at this time but the spread is shrinking.

From 1987 to the January 2018 peak we have what is part of the 30-year cycle +1 year. I’m sure readers or investors want clarity but it’s the job of the markets to always confuse the majority every step of the way.  The easiest group to fool are the modern wave analysts that have never experienced the 2008 crash and have never gone back in history to do their homework.

An example is the 2018 market that contains an expanded pattern. Not a single wave expert seems to see the same pattern, and ignoring this type of  top will screw up the wave count forever. An expanded top gives us a huge look into the future that is hard to imagine at this time. The short version is that no matter how deep the entire bear market will get, eventually the market in question will rise and surpass the expanded part!  For an example, if the Nasdaq ended just below 2000 then I would have no hesitation in calling that the Nasdaq will eventually go above 8000!

Mind you that could take several decades to accomplish. It may take into 2019 before we see a strong bottom in Primary degree, after which I will turn very bullish. When you see any wave analyst produce a wave 1-2 in Primary degree, you instantly know that these analysts are in a much higher degree than “all” the work on this blog.

All the components inside the Nasdaq are taking big hits with Apple being a prime example. I’m sure Warren Buffet is scratching his head as his investment in Apple gets shredded.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio was at 4.8:1 today which is down from the extreme of 6.38:1 in September.

 

Commercials are net short but not by that much. This will change in the months ahead as they switch to long positions.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Death Cross Review

This is a daily chart using my standard 500 bar time periods. What is very important is technical indicator called a “Death Cross”.  Call it the Grim Reaper if you want,  but they both are guaranteed to steal bullish investor dollars. The 50-200-day MA is a deadly technical indicator that signals a long term decline, and we are just witnessing the start to this decline.

With the weekly chart the 200-day MA is down at the 5400 price level which could supply support and the potential for a “Golden Cross”. The Nasdaq is not the only asset class with a “Death Cross” as the SP500 also has one.

With this drop we would expect the Gold/NASDAQ ratio would improve. It did, but we are coming off a record extreme ratio of 6.38:1! This beat the old record by a wide margin of 4.94:1.  We want this ratio to compress as 1.18 is one of my “cheap” ratios which could still be years away.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart 2018 Review

 

The November bottom and the following rally have now charged to the upside, which no longer fits into the wave 2 bullish move I did have. An instant wave count review should always be done if Minor degree moves cannot provide the confidence to trade it. This would only be a Minute degree run, but that would be enough to screw-up a wave count for life. This would be an expanded pattern, with the SP500 and the DJIA looking about the same.

Do all those emotional investors deserve a Santa rally? Not from my perspective they don’! Investors do absolutely, “Nothing”, as stock prices start turning green again. The hardest investors work, is lifting their fingers and pressing the mouse button. Of course, in today’s world, they need Artificial Intelligence (A.I) to do basically the same thing.

Some say investors deserve more, due to the risk they take. What a pile of BS that is, as investors back in 1984 took all the risk.

Many good mainstream analysts are also mentioning the Death Cross on many of the indices I cover, and this Nasdaq is no exception. The 50-day is ready to kiss the 200-day MA  which is also the Kiss Of Death” for a bull market. Anyone that stays invested or brushes off the importance of a technical indicator like a Death Cross, will get hit hard. It will be worse for all those individuals who are getting ready to retire. I think many investors have no clue how big the world tech bubble has become as I see it as a Cycle degree peak and not just a short-term correction.

I do track the Gold/Nasdaq ratio and today it sits at 5.7:1 which is extremely expensive when it takes 5.7 Troy ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq 100. A cheap ratio would be 1.18 so there is a massive amount of adjusting that still needs to happen. You don’t want stocks at fair value as that is ridiculous, only crushed stock index prices make a good investment.

All the markets need is some “bad” numbers reported and this happy investor mood can turn sour pretty quick.

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Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Update

 

On this daily chart, the Death Cross is still going to happen as the Nasdaq wanted nothing to do with the 50-day MA, and could not find support above the 200-day MA!  If the big bearish trend is true, then no amount of jaw-boning will turn the tide, even with the COT report below showing a small net long position. The bears will show us if they are in-control by taking out my wave 1 position Minor degree which still could happen this month.

My last Gold/Nasdaq ratio calculation was in early September 2018 what at that time registered the most expensive ratio of 6.38:1. It takes 6.38 gold ounces to but just one unit of the Nasdaq which blows the old record of 4.94 gold ounces by a long shot.  Cheap would be 1.18, so there is a long way to go before this Nasdaq becomes cheap again. The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has been hitting a brick wall a the 6:1 range, so that is a usually a big clue that this market is far too expensive to be a good long-term investment at this time.

This is only a very small net long position with this COT report, which is nothing to get excited about especially when this is one of the only long indices I have.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart: Pushing Higher

 

 

October started out rather boring, but this may have changed this morning, as gold, silver, and USD jumped together.  The Nasdaq broke just a bit higher, but how long that will last is next to impossible to tell. I will keep this expanded pattern alive after any major peak has happened until I see how the “C” wave decline starts to look like.

Folks, I’m not looking for a simple bull market correction as a Cycle degree bear market is coming. “Stay in it for the long term”,  has been the constant theme, but would you, if a 1929, 2008, type of a crash was coming?  Stock markets and the solar cycles have a love-hate relationship with each other, that before the solar cycle ends, there is usually a big stock market crash or decline. The 1987 crash was about the same, but the 1987 crash was just a Minor degree crash. 2022, is my target year for a major bottom, and this should coincide, with the end of solar cycle #24 and the start of Solar Cycle #25.

I will be keeping my updates short for now, but this market would have to slice right through my bottom wedge, by a wide margin so there is no hope of the markets breaking any record highs for 2018, again.

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Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Cycle Degree Wave 3 Review

 

Since my last update I had to move my “C” wave in Minor degree up as I was still early by a week or so. The last peak was September, 3, 2018 at the 7720 price level. The real peak where I have to count from, was way back in January of 2018.  I’m sure we can hear the crying how I can’t count this way, but I see so many of these that ignoring them is not an option.  It is the “C” wave that gives it away, and we have to wait until the end of the month to see if the Nasdaq 7720 price level holds.

In a fit of madness stops or options get triggered which still could spike the Nasdaq higher, but I think the markets are running on fumes. Just scanning all the commercial COT report positions, there are vertualy no net long positions anywhere. Painting a bullish picture in stocks, will show you how the majority of wave analsyts can fall into the “mood trap” just like any other human does.

See all that empty space below our present high? What do you think is down there? Nothing but PUT options and protective sell stop orders, and when they get hit, all those bulls will turn into instant bears.

Stocks also follow the 30 year cycles but they sure can crash together like they did in 2008!

The “C” wave decline in Intermediate degree could be fairly steep but will only be obvious after it has formed.  The Nasdaq is the odd ball here as it seems to have pushed this “C” wave further than all the others. This will be last of the Internet bubbles in a long time, as the internet has matured and we don’t need to invent a new smart phone.

Readers have to make up their own minds if things are, “Different This Time”. Sure it’s different, but so was 1929, 1987, 2ooo, and 2007! Take our 2018 peak and count back 89 years and we get 1929! Ignoring the 30 year inflationary and deflationary cycles is not an option. T-Bonds have a 120-year cycle that started in 1981. (two 60-year Cycles).

We also have a rising wedge which every technical analsyt knows about, but only a few have the confidence to read them.

Once this turns then things can speed up, as panic will take control of the crowd, and no more record highs are produced. Add 3 years to our January peak and we coud see a bottom by 2022, so buckle up and watch all the bullish investment prices evaporate and disappear.

Gold, silver are pushing higher so money leaving stocks can flow into gold stocks in a flash, if the GDX holds it’s price level.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Impending Death Cross Update!

The odds that the main indices also contain an expanded pattern is to hard to ignore. The “C” wave decline can be very steep and it would travel faster as well. Again, protective sell stops are piling up underneath every price support, and a quick count tells us we have about 5 legs that have to get retraced.

We still have a long way to go before the Death Cross is made in the Nasdaq as the crossings all travel in alternating sequences. After a Golden Cross comes a Death Cross, which forecasts a long term bearish decline to come. I have an in-house “pool” of futures Death Crosses which is just one of my 8 main indicators or tools that I use. Another main in-house pool consisting of all my gold/ratios is also another one of the 8 indicators I use.  I call them my “aces” in my hand, and if I only have 1-2 aces that give a clear signal then this is not nearly enough to justify a move.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 6.19:1 which is far more expensive than the 4.94:1 extreme that I once measured.

My Market Vane report is another “Ace” but this will run out soon. Market Vane shows that 76% bulls were present for last week. This has dropped down from a 24 month high of 91% bulls. 91% bulls is an extreme from any perspective, which means there is nobody left to get in.

Markets are twice as expensive now than they were in 2000 as the Warren Buffet indicator confirms. The entire world is sitting on impending Death Crosses so I only see downside potential for the rest of this year. It could take all of 2018, to show the damage that bears can cause but then all of 2019 coud be very bullish for stocks and gold again.

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NASDAQ: World Record Intraday High Update

The Nasdaq, so far has topped out at 7486 and has now started another small correction or the Nasdaq stock party could be over. From here on any record high could be the last record high for 2018. A few are figuring out that this market is doomed no matter how much they spin the bull shit (BS) that it is a good time to invest. There is a huge deflationary crash and bear market coming that only a few might understand.  When stock prices deflate, and the gold price crashes together then this is a deflationary crash.

This has all happened before and even recently depending on if you can remember the 2008 crash.  For about 8 months “everything” crash together ending at a bottom for gold in late November. Stocks bottomed in March 2009. The exact same forces are at work, where we are in the exact same position as the early 2008 top was.

This time in Cycle degree, stocks will join in with gold, but far more syncronized in the length of time. In otherwords, they can all crash together until gold crashes below $500 again. Mention $500 gold to a gold bug, and they lose it.  There are only a few big Nasdaq names that are still pushing the Nasdaq higher, so those 5 big names would be critical to watch for early exhaustion or speed deceleration. The choppy waves are there, the commercial traders have large short positions on the Nasdaq while the speculators are skewed to the long side.

Does it look like the commercials are jumping for joy and in a bullish position? No, the red at the bottom are the commercial short positions, while the lite bar graph on the top represents the large speculator long positions. It is the large speculators that are always wrong at the extremes, except the talking heads always talk about what the speculators are doing not what the commercial dealers are doing.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio also supports my bearish views as today it sits at a 6.1:1 ratio, which is the most expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio I have ever calculated.

I guess it is also a good time, to post a very professional description of the warning signs of a market top.

 

 

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NASDAQ Record High Review

naieve The Nasdaq is just 8 p0ints away from breaking to a new record high.  Apple’s stock pattern was also a zigzag  ending with a new record high which happens in diagoanl 5th waves.  The experts are saying that the next big bullish move is on its way, but many of the other indices I cover, do not confirm this potential bullish move.  The Russell 2000 has already scored new record highs and it also looks like it carried to new highs as an inverted zigzag.

This delays any Cycle degree top for the Nasdaq index for now.  I’m targeting 30 Cycle degree wave 3 peaks but I may have 5 or so that are “iffy” or not as secure as I would like to see it.

I don’t believe in this “next leg up theory”,  as investors love to invest into record high stock prices. They have done this at every record high as investors refuse to learn from past financial history.

A Cycle degree correction is not over in a few months, all though we’ve had 2-3 year crashes in the past. Nasdaq walks to a different drummer since the 2000 peak which would have been the wave 3 in Primary degree. The bear market that followed the 2000 peak works best as a running triangle ending in 2009.  Since 2009 we’ve had 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, including a good 5th wave extension.

One way of telling that a bearish phase is coming is once the Nasdaq retraces its February 2017 low at the 6200 price level, which should get everybody’s attention!  A big flat in Cycle degree is still the best choice at this time.

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NASDAQ Intraday Review

The Nasdaq had a very different time period for a major peak which was hidden or masked by the bearish attention to the DOW and SP500.   Any Nasdaq wave count is not clear at this point as we still have too many wild gyrations. Summer is coming on which can produce very bearish moves. We do have to respect the Nasdaq as it can keep on giving us the gears in the short term.

From late April the Nasdaq has now only produced a 3 wave run, as wave 4 is still missing from this action. I switched to line type chart but it also changes the wave patterns, producing different wave counts all the time. In the short term I will be doing some cosmetic wave counting, but eventually the trend will start to smooth out, and when it heads south it will help to confirm a bigger bearish phase is in effect. Recent Commercial trader report does not show an extreme bearish situation, but more of a small bullish situation. This could turn more bullish as the real decline shows it’s true colors.

It makes no sense to spend so much time in intraday scale as for long periods of time nothing can happen. Nobody can take advange of intraday scale wave counts. It might take a week before a new posting is read 4-5 times, by that time it’s to late to take advantage of it.  The big and best moves happen at the daily and weekly chart scales when the majority are all “forced”  to switch directions.

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Nasdaq Weekly Chart 2000-2018 Review

One of the most powerful patterns that we can find is what they call a “Wedge” in conventional technical analysis. A wedge can have a rising bottom and a falling top which eventually compresses the chart after which it has no choice but to explode and then soar.  The earliest we may have spotted this wedge , and take advantage of it, is in late 2008.  Sure, it’s all in hindsight, but unless we know what a wedge is we will never look for them in the first place.

For many years I have grappled with the 2000-2002 decline as it looked so much like an impulse, but this impulse did not fit anywhere. Maybe because it was not an impulse, but part of a triangle decline, ending with a running “E” wave. Running flats are common, and even zigzags do contain shortened “C” wave. I don’t like to call waves “truncated” as that is an excuse to not count anything. From my perspective the DJIA from 1937 to 1942, contained a wedge that forecast the huge Cycle degree wave 3 which may have ended March, 13, 2018.  I also have several large scale wedges that all indicate a huge bull market will come in the future.  Sure, I can change the wave count, but in the end this wedge will remain for all of financial history.

I only use parallel lines and I use the top rising trend as my base, then I create the same angle from the record bottom of early 2009.  The top trend line contains 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, so when the Nasdaq crashes and takes out the bottom trend line I also will be moving by a minimum of one degree. Cutting the bottom trend line I would also be finishing a potential Intermediate degree correction.  The 4000 price level  is not deep enough, if we need a 3 wave, Primary degree correction.

The gullible are brainwashed to buy on the dips and last month saw another huge one week share buying madness!

Investors just pumped the most money ever into stock funds for 1 week

You have to ask, “Buying on the dips for what?” Once a new low has been established, then all those “Dip” buyers will start to lose their capital base. All present dip buyers clearly tell us that they think that they are in a bull market. They think that another huge bear market will never come as that is old ancient history. The majority of investors never take the time to do historical research and most of them believe the brainwashing going on at market peaks.

The majority of all wave analysts have been brainwashed into believing this SC and GSC myth, but since the 2000 peaks this has never been confirmed by anyone. Since the dotcom bust in 2000, there  has “Never”  been a set of 5 declining waves in Primary degree. Only the Nasdaq looks like it has a set, and it doesn’t fit into any zigzag.

The Nasdaq hit a 2018 high of about 7200, and this is also the time I look for the highest peak of the year. The short version is that investors will not benefit from buying on the dips this year, and it may take over ten years before they ever break even again. They may have to wait until the “Roaring 2020s” arrive.

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Nasdaq Intraday Crash: Showing Us The Way!

Do we still have lower highs since the peak of the Nasdaq?  That’s a trick question as we can get this in any decline! Because the Nasdaq broke to a new record low at bullet train speeds, We could get a violent reaction but 5 waves pointing in a direction is telling us there is more downside to come. The other indices will catch up, but small difference will happen, is when a big difference appears, then it always needs a second look. The Nasdaq  marched to a different drummer again, this time it was just to be the last index to top out.

There are only two trading days left this week, so more downside is an option, but wild swings will surprise us. This may all smooth out a bit more once the Nasdaq trend is more established.  Either way we are heading what the mainstream might call “critical support” will come at the 6300 price level. Critical support for what? A new phase in the stock bull market? I doubt it very much!

The only support important enough is the one just before stocks strike out into another 8 year bull market. Not until the majority hate stocks again will a new bull market hatch!  Now if only AMZN would crash! After a quick check  Amazon’s stock price peaked at $1617 and is now down $120. I will create an Amazon post, but also talk about the Gold/AMZN ratio.

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Nasdaq Intraday Record High Now Visable In The Rear View Mirror!

Finally the markets have started to succumb to bearish forces again. It started last week and now looks to carry on with its bearish trend until at least after the Fed announcement this week. The white elephants in the Nasdaq, like Facebook, also managed to execute a swan dive this morning.

I will also be forced to move my Cycle degree peak over, but I will wait on that until this decline starts to pick up more steam.  Those who have never done any historical stock market research will repeat all the mistakes of the past, thinking that markets can’t crash when the fundamental analysts paint us a rosy picture.  Hate to break it to you, but markets always end when the majority think it can’t. When those two words like “New Era” get regurgitated by all the parrots in the world, then the big party is over.

Back at the peak in 2000, the new era mantra was also repeated many times, so it’s nothing I haven’t heard or read about before.  In Britain and the USA it was called the “Canal Age”, until the railroads came along and produced the new age of train travel. When the majority call it a great new age, then it is usually over and a market crash ensues with recessions or even depressions. In 2007 they had no clue that a recession was coming, but it sure arrived in a hurry.

Then, under the worst fundamental conditions, like in late 2008 the market turned by early March 2009 and then soared for another full 8 or so years.

The other indices have to follow and until they make a clear effort to join the bearish party, I use caution just incase we have another fake correction.

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Nasdaq New World Record Highs!

As I’m posting the Nasdaq has hit 7111 already and there still seems to be some momentum behind this move. All other indices I cover need to play catch up, but we know that the Nasdaq can march to a different drummer. In the end we may end up with a completely different wave count, for now.

The February decline sure can fit as a single 5 wave decline which could be part of an expanded top. From the February bottom I believe we have another diagonal wave structure, which created the new record high this morning. Everything seems to be rosy for the majority of investors again as chances are good this, “Tariff War” was just a lot of hype, or any real tariffs on steel and aluminum don’t matter much.

Since the late 2015 bottom we had a massive 5th wave extension which borders on being a diagonal wave structure.  In our EWP book they call it an “Ending Diagonal” but they do not count out the zigzags that make up any diagonal move.  The 4th wave in Intermediate degree is one warning, and a diagonal 5th wave is another, so this ethusium will get replaced by pessimism again.

One thing good about this new top, is that it hasn’t created a double or even triple top. When we do get them, then it is much harder because we have to work out where the decline starts from. In a Cycle degree zigzag, we can’t have the markets soar to new highs, as that breaks every rule in the book, but flat corrections sure can produce “B” wave highs, before they plunge.

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Nasdaq 100 “Big Dip” Update.

The Nasdaq did not display a double bottom as it crashed well below the previous low, followed by a wild rally as well. We could be on the second set of a 1-2, 1-2 wave count, and a small third 1-2 wave may also show itself.  After that, any 5 wave structure will be harder and harder to see, but we would also be running out of degrees after a wave 4 in Minor degree has finished. This could take all of February to play out, so it’s not going to happen overnight.

Usually all 5 waves play out in a rapid fashion, but then this market will give us a hard time once an “A” wave in Intermediate degree has finished. There are still many variables that can happen, so until a new record low is achieved, this market can give us a hard time.

As I post the Nasdaq is pushing higher, but mid week can also be great reversal days.  Between the 5800 and 5600 price levels we could run into some strong resistance, so any 5th wave in Minor degree should be ending at that time as well.

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Nasdaq Intraday Record Highs Update: Still Going To The Moon!

This morning the stock bulls must have been hit with a tazer, as the markets jumped a bit. Well, this has been going for the full Month of January already, and it may last until the end of the month. I changed the wave count to a big zigzag, with what I show containing a long wave 1. I normally never count it his way, but in diagonal waves this could work as an ending diagonal as well.

The Nasdaq is just a bit short of 6980 which would be the number to beat. That could happen as soon as I post, but we should be setting up for another correction. We need this market to leave a nice vertical spike in the daily cash charts, as the weekly and monthly charts already have these huge spikes very visible.

We need a correction big enough so it can never come back and soar to record highs this year. The media will always focus on how much higher this market will go, but only a few talk about how low it can go.  Any 20% correction is the public definition of a bear market, but I know markets can correct 40% and 60%.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is at a bit over 5.22:1 which means it takes 5.22 gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq. This 5:1 range has not changed all that much as it may be double topping as well.  One day this Gold/Nasdaq ratio will shift again where it could reach a 1:1 ratio. This still could take a few years, but until it does this market is overbought and very expensive.

If you’re not a contrarian then be prepared for the stock bulls to trample you as they run for the exits yelling,” Fire”

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Nasdaq Rocket To The Moon!

I was compelled to post the Nasdaq again. The start of 2018 sure came in the a bang, or should I say the roar of a Falcon Heavy blasting off. I will use the December 2017 decline as a triangle as they seem to be pretty rare in financial history.  What a triangle tells me is that once the “thrust” is finished, I must also look for a higher degree.  We have no shortage of higher degrees to pick from as I could stack at least three more degree levels at this impending top.

This market needs a much bigger correction than what the majority thinks we are going to get. Being brainwashed by the 20% bear market guideline is a joke, when you look at the 2000-2002 Nasdaq crash.  A 20% correction would do nothing for all the fundamentals to re-adjust. From the early 2009 bottom, the Nasdaq soared with many corrections along the way. It wasn’t until the 2011 bottom that the markets switched into “Stock Mania Mode”.  Gold crashed, stocks and the US dollar soared.

From the early 2009 bottom to our present top calculates out as a 630% gain. That puts the other 4 indices I track, to shame.  All the wave counting in the world will mean very little if we don’t identify 2009-2018 as a 5 wave sequence, complete with an expanded wave 3-4 correction. My take is that this huge bull market is a single wave structure containing 5 waves in Intermediate degree.

Others may have a 5 wave count in Primary degree, but this tells me their past wave counts are in SC degree already. That’s just like time traveling on paper, but then all Fibonacci even numbers would not make any sense as well. These big degree wave analysts just love to be special, as they think because markets travel in big and tall waves, that we must be in a higher degree.

This is the furthest from the truth as big moves do stretch and extend making small degrees look like big degree moves.

At a minimum the Nasdaq chart above has to retrace it’s entire January move, and that is just to get warmed up. For a Cycle degree wave 3 to get confirmed we must get a 3 wave bearish move containing nothing higher than 3 Primary degree letters. At this time I will keep any big triangle pattern at the bottom of my list.

Big bull markets attract the crooks, trend chasers and the novice as well. Most investors don’t know what a “Bull Trap” is, because participants are biased all the time.

In the long run the Nasdaq should also go below the 2011 bull market correction, which would be the 2000 price level. The markets will be oversold before any real price bottom, even gets close. Ignoring the news on any insider buying at that time, will leave you stranded with just a small  token position, and in constant fear of the markets going lower. I’m sure insiders of most publicly listed companies do not show their fear when they buy low, because they know that the business cycle will return. It’s more like the solar cycles that are responsible for the business cycle, but politicians love to take credit for saving the stock markets.

This market seems to want to frustrate anyone that is bearish to early, but it takes time to switch mental states before it happens, as once it does start on its correction there will be no time for the majority to react.

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