E-Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

Between the five indices cover none of them have the exact same wave count. They are all different and I have to try different short term wave counts as well.

Right now I see a declining diagonal pattern about 7 days old, which could give us a surprise price rally. There is no price support worth mentioning because most price support forecasts never hold before the digital ink even drys. Longer term I’m bearish and it’s not rocket science to dig up a reason why!

The trade war is on everyone’s lips and it will not be over anytime soon. Of course, the President thinks he can keep “Tweeting” trying to keep the markets afloat.  Sooner or later the “Tweets” no longer will have the same effect as investors will get bored with them.

The SP500 is not loaded down with as many tech-related companies, but the Nasdaq sure is. I will post the Nasdaq as its chart is close to short-term support.

Hits: 1

SP500 E-Mini Intraday Gyrations Update

Between the 5 indices, I generally watch, each one has a slightly different pattern and in the case of the SP500, I have one small zigzag that doesn’t fit as well as I would like.

At the 2895 price level, we have several previous 4th wave peaks which also have some spikes in them.  Draw a line across the 2895 price level and we also have an H&S pattern which could also be very bearish. In a bull market that right shoulder would never hold but when investors are in a bearish mood, that right shoulder will just keep on crashing.

It’s a full moon today so next week could end up being a wild ride indeed. What else is new?  I would rather see some fast action than when the markets are in a sideways pattern.

Either way longer term I’m bearish, but nothing can stop a wild counter rally when we least expect them.  A Minor degree wave 1-2 can work but a surprise rally produced by a stock bull attack sure can create a ruckus.

The commercials are not that bearish so this leaves it wide open for moves in both directions.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is at 2.26:1 and it’s been hitting this 2:1 ratio brick wall since May 2018. Longer term we may end up close to a 1:1 ratio but it will take a long time to get there.

Hits: 5

S&P 500 Mini Intraday

Market activity during night hours may be dominated by traders from around the world as local investors may just be waking up. The big boys who bring us new IPOs try to time them for the peak of a bullish cycle. Flooding the markets with IPO’s is a sign of a major top as stocks like LYFT, and UBER fail to make investors happy.

I’m sure we have started a 5 wave sequence and for now, I will be looking for a Minor degree 5 wave run.  Of course, any run like this doesn’t last that long as being out by just one degree will produce “Surprise” counter-rallies that would move outside of the two trend lines.

The goal is a potential “A” wave in Primary degree as that would also give us a  short term buy signal.  Any “B” wave could be very small but might drag out a few months or so.

Folks, we are heading into new territory and any corrective wave count I can come up with, may not last very long at all.

In the last year or so of solar cycles, markets tend to crash but a few times this has not happened like in 1996.

 

 

Hits: 2

SP500 Decline Update

At this time the SP500 produced a 7 month double top before it started to decline.  So far the SP500 is forming the best and when this impending 5 wave decline moves dramatically out of character then I will look at building my alternate wave counts. I don’t think we are near any Minor degree move just yet,  but if it lasts all of May, I would consider that pretty lucky.

We are looking at a possible Cycle degree correction which will take longer and a few more years to play out.

All this bearish market action based on a tweet from President Trump! How does an ordinary person compete with people that are trying to manipulate the markets?

Over 1.5 Trillion dollars were wiped off the books on President Trump’s tweets and it seems it’s not stopping anytime soon.

Hits: 9

SP500 Intraday Gap: How Long Will It Stay Open?

Last night the SP500 imploded, creating a huge open gap in its wake. The big question is, “When will the gap get fill”? If I was very bullish then chances are good that this gap will get filled this month but if a bigger bearish picture is emerging then this gap could stay open for many years.  For now, I think the gap will remain open but not all indices produced open gaps.

We have many different tops with the SP500 at the 2960 price level producing a great looking double top as well. If the gap stays open by the end of this week then the gap could hang around for a long time. The gap will become important far into the future, but then the majority will have forgotten about it as well.

The Trump tweets caused this gap as at the same time the VIX exploded. Just goes to show how Social Media can damage a so-called bull market.

Social Media is  “Mob Rule”, as emotional investors decided to unload after the tweeting action of a President!

What this move did show is that the Gold/SP500 ratio hit 2.3:1 this morning which is the second most expensive Gold/SP500 ratio since September 2018.

 

Hits: 6

SP500 2011-2019 Weekly Chart Review

This is the weekly chart of the June SP500 contract. Our present 2019 stock rally is about 43 points from breaking out but even it stays at the peak today, I will try my extended wave count.

It was the 2011 bottom that is important as it matched the “Peak Gold Mania” of 2011 as well. The other big event that happened at that time was that solar cycle 24 hit its first peak in September 2011.

Basically, I extended the Minor degree part which makes the 2015-2016 correction a wave 3-4 bear market. Since then this market just doesn’t want to stop, but I think resistance is building up. In the last 15-16 months, we are looking at a potential triple top.

The present top also could produce a “Right Shoulder” which if the SP500 is very bearish, the markets will not blast to another record high.

The hedgers are no help at all as the commercials only have a very small net short position.

On a daily chart, the SP500 is still in a golden cross position, but a good correction can produce a death cross with little effort.

The 4th wave bottom support in late December 2018 is also where the 200-day MA is sitting. In order for the SP500 to hit the 200-day MA again, the entire 2019 bull market must eventually be completely retraced. That would put the SP500 below the 2300 price level.

I use the Gold/SP500 ratio and it is always a good idea to make calculations when the markets approach record highs. The record expensive ratio was 2.41:1, with today’s calculation coming in at 2.28:1.

 

Hits: 19

SP500 Daily Chart Review

The market bottomed in December of 2018 and has now been in a bull run that is a bit more than 3 months old.  2940 represents the potential for a huge double top, and a major Head&Shoulder pattern as well.

We have about 60 points to go before the SP500 runs into new record highs. This remains to be seen, in the days or weeks ahead of us. The entire 2019 market rally is very straight with no real corrections in it.

The corrections we did get are diagonal waves and could be an ending to a “C” wave. Now is also a good time to calculate a Gold/SP500 ratio which means little, if we have no database to work with. Not too many take the time to make a few calculations per month, or when faced another potential extreme.

Since September  2018 any 2:41:1 ratio would be expensive when using the gold cash price, this morning the Gold/SP500 ratio was 2.24:1. This is not a record but very close to being very expensive. A cheap Gold/SP500 ratio would be closer to .75:1

Just with those numbers alone, It’s hard to justify looking for another superbull stock market to materialize.

The Golden Cross happen at the 2760 price level which is very bullish, but always lagging in time.  This doesn’t mean that the golded cross will last as the markets can reverse just as easily.

The first Friday of every month jobs report and a full moon could produce another turning so anything can still happen in the short term.

Hits: 15

SP500 Intraday Gyrations Update

This is the June 2019 contract and the next one will not be until September 2019. The March contract has expired. Right now this pattern fits well with the Nasdaq but the DJIA is marching to a different drum beat as its correction is far from clean.

The big question will be, “Is it just a correction” (Dip) or will it take out (Retrace) the entire bullish move of 2019 ? A bearish move below the 2320 price level would be a complete retracement and help confirm that this bullish mood was just a big bear market rally.  The 2790 price level seems to have importance as the SP500 has wobbled around that number 4 times already.

Of course, if the stock bears are just taking a coffee break before the next attack, then this 2790 price will never hold.  Right now we also have another small H&S  being set up.

The commercials are net short the SP500 but not by that much. This could make things pretty volatile at least in the short term. Until this market gives us a decent looking correction I will remain bullish,  even though the markets could still go higher.

This planet is suffering from a massive overdose of debt and corruption that is not going to get fixed this year, or next year, or the next! 🙂  Solar cycle #25 will come to the rescue, but that might not happen until late 2020!

 

 

Hits: 9

Mini-SP500 Weekly Chart Review

While the majority of investors are pushing the SP500 higher, I’m building the bearish picture.  Most of the bearish pictures I can draw do have multiple choices most of the time. 8 choices would be normal and constantly eliminating anything that will not fit is the name of the game.

A near vertical move with barely a correction could work well as part of a wave 1 pattern and the mainstream analysts are foaming at the mouth in how bullish this setup is.  To confirm the bullish scenario the SP500 would have to continue to soar to much higher price levels, otherwise, we are being blinded by a bunch of smoke and mirrors media news.

There are lots of bearish moves just like this and most of them were fully retraced.  This weekly chart has pushed the SP500 past the 50-day MA, with the 200-day MA still being far below present prices.  The short story on that is that the death cross on this weekly chart is in our future as we are still under the influence of a golden cross that happened in 2009-2010.

Price wise the SP500 must crash well below any support we see and that is before the 200-day MA gets hit.

I’m sure that will happen as flogging a tired stock bull will eventually just piss it off and they could flee in all directions except up.

Commercial traders are not that skewed to the bearish side but bearish all the same.  This also tells me that their positions can change rapidly which will happen once the SP500 gets into another oversold condition.

The Gold/SP500 ratio tells us another story as this morning it was 2.16:1.  We are still very close to a record Gold/SP500 ratio high, so there is nothing that I would consider cheap when compared to the gold price.  In order for the SP500 to become cheap again we need to go below a potential 1:1 ratio or even lower.

 

 

Hits: 5

SP500 Daily Chart Review

The SP500 and other indices wave positions I had have now pushed further that I would like to see, so changes have to be made.  This 2800 price level has been hit for the 6th time this year alone, so it will be critical to see how long this bullish move will last. Even though this stock rally looks like a real impulse wave, there have been many like this which have been completely retraced. Gold is just one example.

The commercials are not skewed that much to the bearish side so that adds to the uncertainty to this bullish phase, in the short term. The Gold/SP500 ratio helps as it is at 2.10: this morning. This is still about as extreme as it gets as my last extreme was 2.41:1 back in September of 2018.  We also have one wicked H&S being set up and in a bigger bullish phase, the right shoulder will not hold.

Market players are always waiting for something to happen that will paint a bullish picture, like the trade talks. Fundamentals change like the wind and basing investment decisions on the words of a politician usually never last as emotional investors can interpret any news a thousand different waves. There are many contradictions made by the mainstream analysts and that alone is enough to take pause to see how long this bullish phase will go.

HEDGE decline to new record lows which makes it out of sync from the SP500 index by a large margin. HEDGE has far more “slippage” in it than I originally though, which makes it unsuitable for a long term investment/trade. When there are options inside an inverse ETF, I would not waste my time with it, so I will no longer spend my time wave counting out HDGE. Besides that, if HDGE  ever got closer to the $5 price level, an inverse split can happen. A normal inverse split can be a 4:1.

———–

My updates are going to be erratic and reduced this year. I will post updates on my page.

https://elliottwave5.com/elliott-wave-5-0-possible-status-change-in-2019/

Hits: 24

DJIA And SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update

 

The SP500 E-Mini has just pushed to another new high for the month of January 2019. Investors and analysts are bullish while a big group is bearish as hell. My Market Vane report is ending but this week there was only 50% bulls present which I don’t see as extreme. A 50/50 reading is not extreme enough to help determine any potential great move still to come.

I see this entire January run as a bearish rally but once the government clears up the economic backlogs we don’t have any COT reports to help us. I do have the Gold/Ratios which never shut down but are always active.  The Gold/Sp500 ratio was 2.03:1 this morning which it has been in a tight range since May 2018 which had the exact same reading.  This expensive ratio doesn’t make me jump up and down expecting another huge bullish phase to come. Cheap is a .75:1 ratio which means we still have a long way to go before stocks become very cheap again.

 

The DJIA has about the same wave pattern but looks like it has peaked already. This top may not hold as Friday’s can bring some very unexpected surprises which the markets may or may not like.

The DJIA is a bit cheaper when we use gold as a measuring stick, but it is still pushing the extremes at 18.77:1 this morning. 21:1 is the record to beat which happen in August of 2018.

We are at the end of a month and this bullish phase could be just the public stuffing or topping up their contributions for the 2018 tax year.

Continue reading “DJIA And SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update”

Hits: 15

SP500 Intraday Peak Review

Investors had a bit of downtime on Monday but the SP500 peaked out on Friday, January 18th.  Since then the SP500 has been slowly grinding down. The entire move since late 2018 sure fits into a 3 wave move which can be just a bear market rally.  On Sunday we also had a full moon which can act like a bull trap at certain times.  The world sad state of affairs will not get fixed with just a short correction as it will take years to unwind the deep debt that all governments are presently in.  At the 2680 price level, we also have a very tall H&S pattern being set-up which would be very bearish if the bear market rally is real.

The trend lines are there as it also looks like a rising wedge at this intraday level.  Not until the SP500 crashes well below the 2580 price level, can we still be in a bigger bullish phase?

The question I always have for the stock bulls is, “Where is this bullish phase going to”? Is the “bottom in”? Is it a bottom for a return to a multi-year bull market?  I’m looking for a bullish phase as well, but this is not it no matter how bearish the stock bears become.  Insiders would also be buying their own shares back and I don’t mean using shareholders money to try and manipulate their own stocks.  Buy-backs manipulate earnings with only a temporary effect even though they waste shareholders money. Companies that pay dividends or buy their own shares back are sending clear signals telling  you, ” We  have nothing better to do with investors money”.

Apple fits that description very well and once it started paying dividends under investors pressures, its innovations declined.  When we read countless stories about insider buying their own shares back then we might see a potential bottom for a big bullish move. Insiders did this on a massive scale in 2008, and they do not buy on a whim, and they most certainly don’t sell on a “Whim”.  A bottom with insider buying lasts much longer so if you were still bearish in March 2009 you will be left holding a wooden nickle like all the wave analysts did.  Thinking back to 2009 can give most investors brain cramps as researching that far back sounds too much like work. Talking about the market peaks in 2000 would be 18 year ancient history.

Solar Cycle #24 was underway by early 2009 yet all the wave analysts ignored this fact as in 2009 they all had very bearish wave counts. The wave analysts that are still chasing 5 waves down in Primary degree are living in La-La Land as they have learned nothing in the last 18 years!  Expert wave analysts are also telling us that 5th waves can extend 50 years or more which I think is impossible as 5th waves always contain the weakest fundamentals. Besides that, not a single 4th wave bottom in 1932 or 1974 have the markets ever retraced back to. The reason this has never happened is that 1932 was not a 4th wave bottom in SC degree.

2020-2021 could see the arrival of solar cycle #25 and being bearish when a solar cycle starts to crank-up will put investors right back into a bear trap much like early 2009!  Solar cycle studies were in the books of EWI, yet at that time they ignored solar cycles just like they ignored insider buying.

 

Hits: 13

SP500 Intraday Update

So far the SP500 is keeping its bullish trend while the VIX created a huge decline.  I have only one trend line which the SP500 is starting to cross or roll over. Any bigger dip will help confirm that the SP500 could be losing it’s power, as buyers take a rest. Markets are just big auction sales which always gets sold to the highest bidder and I see the markets reacting the same way.

I can’t get a correction out of the VIX as it looks like 5 waves down. I’m sure the VIX will crank up again as the VIX could be on a “C” wave decline.  All this might still take the rest of the week to play out, as little choppy waves stretch time. US government shutdown has killed any COT reports and once the government gets up and running again, we could get a COT “Data Shock”. My last report will be a month old by January 20th so positions could make dramatic shifts when it gets released again.

The Market Vane Report I still get is a private report, which shows that 47%-48% bulls were present all last week. There are still too many bulls around to keep fueling this bullish phase for another major leg up. Our 24 month high was 73% bulls, which is not as extreme as it can get, but enough to kill the stock bull. The basic logic is when the majority are bullish then who is left to get in. Is it a tribe that just came out of a cave or just another greater fool chasing a bull market? FOMO is a popular bull trap

Hits: 9

SP500 E-Mini Daily Chart Update

I will stay with the big wave structure until this wave count shows me otherwise. Fast moves like this tend to never last that long as most moves like this are just emotional moves. FOMO or unstable algorithms producing flash crashes is part of the landscape that we can’t avoid. The SP500 is starting to flatten out a bit so it’s just a matter of time before some mentally unstable algorithms start to freak-out.  I’m just having a bit of fun here as algorithms are not human but very few people can tell the difference. Algorithms are created by humans just the same.  Traders can’t move as fast so spikes are produced which usually develop at turnings.

The bigger the spike the bigger or longer any counter rally will last. Since the 2018 January peak, we’ve had more spikes that we can count and each one produced a reversal.

In candlestick form, you would have to count all the “Hairs”, (Wicks) and always know the price of each “hair” tip.  If this rally is a bearish rally then a new low below 2040 should happen. Many analysts are very bullish at this point, but they were also bullish at every major top we’ve had so far.

Hits: 18

SP500 Rally To Keep Going?

The rally I was working has traveled further than what I would like to see, which makes the unthinkable of a new record high a real possibility.  This January rally being a small degree was enough to force a review starting back at the 2009 bear market bottom.  In this case, I looked at extending wave 3 in Intermediate degree. I’m sure this market rally has something to do with investors trying to top off their retirement accounts. That December 26th bottom left a big spike behind, which is one big clue that this bottom can hold for longer than the bears anticipate.

From the  September 2018 peak to the December bottom we also have a pretty good looking zigzag at this time. Any zigzag can get completely retraced but that could now take all of January to accomplish.  A run back up to the 2800 price level, could happen as this rally still seems to have more power behind it. The key will be that on the intraday scale higher corrective lows keep forming.

This 2018 peak will need more work, as the September peak can turn into a wave 3 as well. The Gold/SP500 ratio is about as expensive as I have seen so there is nothing cheap about this market just yet. Today we are at a 2:1 ratio with the record being about 2.41:1.  The cheap Gold/SP500 ratio is about .75:1, so there is a long way to go before this SP500 becomes cheap again when we compared the SP500 to the price of gold.

————–

I have not been able to update as much as I would like and it may not get any better at this time. I have some serious issues I have to deal with which cannot be resolved this spring or even this summer, so my postings will be far less than what I would like to post.

 

 

Hits: 15

SP500 2000-2018 Review

The debate about what degree level we are in continues, as the majority of wave analysts all have different wave positions. The Elliott Wave Principle is not what you think you are seeing, but it’s what you visualize what the idealized pattern is supposed to look like. Every major wave analyst has 5th wave extensions when in fact wave 3 does most of extending in the stock markets. About 5 years ago I switched to looking at the markets from a Cycle degree perspective because I also tried GSC and SC degree for many years.

The 2000 peak is an Intermediate degree peak while the majority have the 2000 peak as a GSC peak or SC peak. An intermediate degree is a minimum of 4-degree levels lower than every major wave analysts has today. Most wave counts published today are nothing but a “Dog and Pony” show or a great “Smoke and Mirror” magic act. Elliott Wave is not about flipping numbers and letters around like we are flipping hamburgers, but it’s more like being a surgeon where you must think out any moves with great care.

Every number and letter also represents time,  so when I see switches being made between a GSC and SC degree wave count we can jump 50-100 years into the future without realizing it. Cycle degree is basically jumping back in time which puts any SC, GSC and Submillennium degree in our future. The 2000-2002 decline took about 30 months while the 2008 decline only took about 17 months. That’s a big difference and is mainly due to the type of corrective pattern we get.

Before we ever get there this market has to suffer through a bear market for a few years before a new major bull market will start. This may take until 2020 or after the US elections before the markets start to crank up again. Every major bull market peak for the next 100 years will terminate with a wave 3 position and since Cycle degree wave 3 is used, the next major peak will be wave 3 in SC degree.

Our present bearish phase can still last into the spring of 2019, after which we should see a rally in stocks that will convince the majority that the bull is back.

Hits: 19

SP500 E-Mini Intraday Update

This is the March 2019 contract where every trader has to move to sooner or later. Support has now failed as the Fed has threatened more rate hikes in 2019. I find this very strange at this time as many asset classes are already crashing and liquidity is draining the life-blood out of the economy. Nobody is lining up to borrow more money and gold is not going to soar to the moon. Gold sure didn’t like the rate hike, which I will update later this week. In the end the Fed has executed the perfect stock market bull trap. The majority all believe that just a simple 10% correction was coming, but they under estimating the size or degree of this impending correction. They won’t call it a correction much longer as every hope for support will get dashed.

I might add a few more of these intraday charts on this page as the days of seeing sets of 1-2 waves is going to come to an end. Wave 3 will come to an end and the degrees will start to get higher each time a run of 5 completes. This is a wave three extension in progress but heading down. In bull markets the entire wave structures are reversed.

Only 49% are bullish towards the SP500 Market Vane Report, which is not extreme just yet.  The Death Cross on the daily SP500 chart happened at the 2770 price level, with the Gold/SP500 ratio sitting at a perfect 2:1. It takes 2 gold Troy ounces to buy one unit of the SP500.

Besides all these negative indicators the commercial hedgers are still net short by a good amount.

It will take far more downside to get the commercials to change direction. Even then there is no guarantee that commercial hedgers will pile into long positions.

Hits: 33

SP500 Mini Intraday Update

A few days ago some analysts have declared that a bottom was in. They were very bullish but this chart would have to soar soon for the stock bulls to be in control.  I doubt anybody is in control right now but once this E-Mini SP500 chart breaks below the 2590 price level then we know that the bears are in control.  Those reporters that are still super bullish are going to find out the hard way which direction this market is going to head.

Commercial traders are net short, but not at any real extreme just yet.  There is a slim chance this 5 wave pattern I’m working, will finish by the end of this year. It may take until February or even March to clear up. We know that January can be a critical month but March has also produced some amazing reversals.  The Gold/Sp500 ratio is 2.13:1  which is still off the charts for being expensive.

Some asset classes are in a funk as some investors are still undecided.  It could take very little to get a herd into a panic.

 

 

Hits: 12

Mini SP500 Daily Chart Death Cross Update

 

With the wild moves going on in late trading this March 2019 contract charged up and then down again when the bears attacked again. This time the 50-day MA sliced across the 200-day MA which is the classic technical indicator called a Death Cross. I have a slew of Death Crosses forming and now we have another one. These Death Crosses forecast long-term declines and the Death Cross on a weekly chart is way down at the 2340 price level. My best bet is that any wave 3 decline could slice right through that price level with ease. This fast drop could have ended at my first wave 1-2 in Minute degree then I would only look for 1 more set in Minuette degree. I might need an electronic scanning microscope to see the smaller waves. If the wave three extends then even the 5th wave could extend so this bear party is not over by a long shot. Don’t blame President Trump for all the problems, as it was the Fed that took the alcohol away from the stock partygoers.

This is nothing new as I watched different Feds do the same thing twice before since the 2000 peaks. Since late January, we have 4 bottom support prices showing, and each one of them will get trashed, or rectraced. That would also confirm that from that February bottom up and down again was just part of a bear market rally.

All those misguided investors that just finished putting billions into the markets are now sitting on a Death Cross. Think of anything above the 200-day MA as a group of partygoers all standing on a porch and there are too many on the deck! When the deck legs buckle and snap, then it’s too late to do anything about it. Not too many people listen to a technical analyst, but investing blindly right before the Death Cross is strictly FOMO driven so who cares about some mythical Death Cross!

Hits: 14

SP500 Rally Death Cross Review

 

So far the stock rally has performed in the last part of November, but that doesn’t mean it can’t stop on a dime and reverse. So far the counter-rally was a little more dynamic than what I  expected but it will still fit as a bear market rally.  This year we have had about 5 bottoms at various price levels, and if the bigger bearish picture is real then there is no chance that any of these bottom prices will hold. Prices rarely ever hold for very long but a good wave count bottom can.

Sure we could see this move turn into a year-end bullish party and we have to wait and see if this becomes the case. The Gold/SP500 ratio is about 2.25:1 this morning which is still about as expensive that we can get.  One ounce of gold can only buy 2.25 units of the SP500, so we want that number to spread as stocks become cheaper. Just because they did get a bit cheaper doesn’t mean a bull market can keep it going.  Another super leg up is pretty hard for me to accept as nothing is oversold from my Cycle degree perspective.

 

 

I applied the 50-200-day MA lines to this daily chart when the 50-day MA is going to cross the 200-day MA, which they call a “Death Cross”. Investors should never ignore these crossings but I know most of them to do, as they are fundamental analysts first.  The 50-day MA can now supply resistance, so combine that with the “Death Cross”, we have a very bearish situation going into 2019.

Hits: 19

Mini SP500 2016-2018 Review

 

I’m sure the entire planet is trying to figure out how far or how deep this bear market will go. Most of the time markets will come to a grinding halt at some previous bull market support. In this case that would be the 2016 low. (2000-1800).

I will also keep my expanded pattern alive as it is already telling me that one day, all the markets that have this pattern will get retraced in another bull market, but it may take 10 years or more before a new record SP500 high will ever get recorded.

I have mentioned many times that all the President Trump market gains will burn up in a puff of electronic smoke.

From the 2016 bottom we had a 2-year run to complete a move in Intermediate degree, so when the market retraces back to those levels, they would have retraced an Intermediate degree move. Since it would end with a run of 5, I always have to cap it. If I see “any” 5th wave uncapped, then I know those wave counters don’t have a clue where they really are!

This would be the “A” wave in Primary degree and “A” waves are usually “Buy” signals, but they are not the starting waves of a new bull market.

Any “B” wave in Primary degree will also be very choppy, which will be the first clue that it’s just another bear market rally.

It may sound crazy that the SP500 will crash down to the 1800 price level, but we are dealing with a Cycle degree bear market, the likes we have not seen since the 2009 lows.

Tech companies inside the SP500 are imploding with Facebook, Apple, and Nvidia leading the way. This should not be a surprise to any serious market observer as this is starting to happen for the third time since the 2000 tech bubble. Three bull market peaks have blessed the smart market timer, but those party days are over, at least until after 2022.

Solar Cycle #25 should kick in so the younger investors will enjoy the power of the sun. In 2008 it was Solar Cycle #24 that kicked in and it supercharged the markets until January 2018.

The Gold/Sp500 ratio has changed little and is on the expensive side of 2.2:1.

Some say there is no place to hide from this turmoil, but we also “always” have a choice. Any investors that are getting close to retirement should be extra cautious, as my generation got hit hard, and escaping into cash would have at least saved some capital gains.

Hits: 23

Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Update

 

Obviously, the bullish crowd sees the midterm elections as a positive thing, otherwise, the markets would have tanked far sooner. Wild bullish charts like this virtually look vertical on a daily chart, so a correction should be near. If the bigger trend is bearish then a complete retracement of the October bottom will happen. We also have the potential for an H&S top, which the SP500 is running up against. This is a classic textbook retracement move, but we have to see if it’s real!

This is the E-Mini SP500 COT report that shows the commercials having a bearish outlook, while the speculators are in a typical inverse position. Speculators or managed money always seem to get trapped as they are not the smart money crowd that media makes out to be.

 

On A different note, the pages read on this blog have exploded dramatically in the last 3 days, as over 6000 pages were view in a 24 hour period. I was set-back by these numbers but it may be just due to many people being off work and voting. It’s nice to see these numbers, but only time will tell if it’s not just a freaky one of a kind type of move.

I will not post on Remembrance Day for obvious reasons as I take that day very seriously.

Hits: 11

SP500 E-Mini 2000-2018 Review: Bear Market 3.0

 

 

I thought I would post this chart to show that there is also a huge wedge at play in the markets as well. Call it a reverse Megaphone if you, like but the recent bearish moves are up against a big support trend line that is going to fail. The 2007 peak was much smaller and sure added to the confusion, if 2007 was a “B” wave top or not. Join the Primary degree wave 3 with the Primary degree wave 5 (Jan 2018), The same parallel bottom trend line might give us some support, but eventually, that trend line should not hold as a Cycle degree bottom would trash the Primary degree trend lines. Analysts are worried about some 10% or 20% correction before the markets soar again. I’m sure they will argue for years trying to sort out the 3 tops in this SP500 chart.

It took me years, and not until I switched to Cycle degree wave analysts over 3 years ago did things start to make sense and fit better. I will never switch to a higher degree as that is happening by itself already!  We are lucky as every major dip only took about 5 years or so before new record highs were achieved again. Supercycle degree wave 3 could take much longer, to surpass our present peak of 2900.  We have 2 major price support levels that very few think can even happen, but more and more are joining the bearish trend.

Things have changed dramatically since the January 2018 peak as the moods have turned bearish. Just because the stock bears are shredding bullish investors accounts does not mean a contrarian buy signal has arrived. I will remain bearish, until at least a potential “A” wave in Primary degree arrives, and that may not happen for months. Commercial COT reports show that they are net short in most of the 5 indices that I cover. Until they start to build net long positions a real bottom is going to be hard to justify. Bear markets and crashes are just part of bigger bull market corrections just like the 1929 crash has demonstrated.

Since 2000 this will be the third crash I am attempting to count down and chances are it will be my last one. My goal is to get most of the indices down to a Cycle Degree wave 4 bottom, but after that, this blog may shut down.

Hits: 29

SP500 1980-2018 Bull Market Review

 

The 1980-1981 time period was a pivotal year of some major turnings. In 1980 the gold price peaked and then crashed, while stocks were ready to soar. Stocks soared for a 20-year run until the dot-com bust in 2000!  The year 2000 was just an Intermediate degree wave 3 peak and followed by the 4th wave bottom in Intermediate degree. The 2007 peak was weak, and just barely fit into wave 3 in Primary degree. During the 2008 crash, nothing was left unscathed, as all asset classes took a beating, except for the US dollar, as it exploded in price during that time. 2008 was only a Primary Degree deflationary crash, but since the January 2018 peak, we are facing a Cycle degree wave 4 crash that will make 2008 look like a garden party!

Any crash will not happen in one move but it will take 3 moves to complete and should be a longer decline than in 2002. It should also take longer for the Cycle degree crash to play out. This will be my third bear market crash I will be counting out, which looks like it contains an expanded pattern, that most wave analysts, ignore or they are not watching for any of these expanded flat patterns to occur.  The Intermediate degree “C” wave decline should stop at the “A” wave in Primary degree, which could see a move down to the previous 4th wave. This still could take the rest of the year to play out.

2022 will be the expected bottom, which could end up well short of breaking new record lows. Megaphone and single trend lines are pretty useless in forecasting a bottom, as the markets will always try to fool us, doing something nobody expects. 2008 was also a solar cycle #23 bottom which was the main power that sent the markets soaring again.  Most big market crashes happen 1-2 years before a solar cycle bottom, and the exact same situation will be setting up by 2022 when solar cycle #25 starts to crank up. If you don’t think that the sun affects the markets on earth then, I suggest you do a few hundred years of research as it has happened many times before.

1932 was another one of those times, which makes 2022 a 90-year bottom. (3, 30-year cycles) 30-year cycles dominate the commodities world, and to some extent, the stock markets also have this 30-year cycle. The world has been building into the most inflated world in financial history, much like the 1929 time period.

The demographic shift of the aging boomers is going to be the main reason why deflation, and not inflation will be the real threat. Since 2011, 10,000 boomers are retiring every day, which should continue until about 2030. It’s not rocket science, what these boomers have to do as they will not leave their money tied into stocks, and they will have to start selling off their investments. Boomers already took a beating in 2008 but were told to stay in it for the long term. Yah, Right! Who in their right mind can handle a 70% or 80% stock market crash?  Nobody can build a “bullet proof” investment portfolio, unless you can jump into cash, in a very short period of time. F.O.M.O keeps investors in the markets until they are so scared and ready to throw in the “white towel”, when the crash starts to get serious.

When that happens then chances are very good that the markets will turn and soar in another 8-13 year bull market, with 2029 being a potential Primary degree wave 3-4 correction.

 

 

Hits: 55

SP500 Record Top Update.

 

 

Stocks seem to find no real top as records are still being broken. Investing in at the top of the biggest bubble in all of financial history, is very popular.  Investors seem to ignore all the fundamentals with a “who cares” approach.

The biggest and worst advice we are getting is, “Stay in for the long run”. At every major top like 1929-2000,2007, 2018 they always coach you to stay invested for the long term. Tell that to the investors that got wiped out during the 2008 crash, or the 1987 crash.

Stay invested and keep buying the dips, as this market has a long way to go, is the general advice. Only the very inexperienced can do that, but for the millions of boomers retiring it would be financial suicide to stay invested. 10,000 boomers are retiring every day for the next 19 years, so where is all the money going to come from that will push the markets to the extreme? The world has a Titanic anchor of debt hung around their necks and they will get thrown over-board the first time the SS SP500 springs a leak!

The expanded pattern I show, is not just on one index but we can find it in the top 3-5 indices. This expanded pattern would just be a lead into the bigger “A” wave bottom in Primary degree, that is sure to come.  Every wave analysts would be screaming to get out if they new how deadly this pattern actually is. We will know only when it hits, as something will set the herd of investors into a panic.

The VIX tells us that much already, because commercial traders are about as bullish with the VIX as you can imagine, while the speculators are in another bear trap with the VIX. When it changes then expect some violent moves in the VIX as we have seen that happen many times before.

As long as all the expert wave analysts don’t see this expanded pattern their wave counts will get trashed. If all wave analysts don’t see this crash coming then what good is all that wave counting? They sure could not hit the 2009 bottom as that was screwed up as well.

 

 

Hits: 11

Mini SP500 Daily September Futures Update

 

This will be the last of the September index as all of them will be moved to the December 2018 contracts.  The markets are doing a good job of killing any bearish wave positions as they ride the choppy move to the upside. I will stick to my guns, and look at  this as the start of an expanded pattern. The stock bubble ended in January and I have that peak as a Cycle degree wave 3 peak.

There is no way of hitting the exact wave, but a fast retreat would be sign that this bull market has had enough. Investing at world record highs seems to be the popular thing to do. I see it as just plain greed when putting money at risk like this.  Over a 400% gain in a 9 year run is still not enough for investors, as I see nothing but a stock market bull trap being set-up.

Nothing new here as I am tracking another mania for the third time. Patterns like this can create very steep drops, as the investing crowd is going to panic once a few support prices get breached.

I filled in wave positions down to the Minuette degree level, as the “C” wave is a diagonal wave structure and is going against the bigger trend.

My wave position is only a Cycle degree top, as the majority are in SC and GSC degree wave counts already. 2018 is 89 years from the 1929 peak, but this time it’s just one degree lower than the 1929 crash was so it will be like 1929 and 2008 which should take 2-3 years to fully play out. 2022 is my target year, as years ending in 2 seem to have major reversals connected to them.

Massive deflation is the true threat, and we may see that by the FED, “resting” on rate hikes. Even when they drop rates again inflation will not be the driving factor, as printing money is not inflation. If the velocity of money picks up then gold will benifit by going up in price. Gold has already turned the corner last week with a low spike of about $1160.

All my work is from a Cycle degree perspective so all SC and GSC degree wave counts will not happen for decades far beyond my years, but which the new Generation-Z will live work and invest in.

The first of the Generation-Z was born in 2008, but I am checking that, as it would also cut off all kids born to the Millennial generation.

Hits: 13

Mini SP500 Daily Chart World Record High Review

 

We now have a secondary peak with this SP500 daily chart, but this is not the real high! There are expanded patterns that constantly catch us by surprise, if we are not actively looking for them.

Our wave counts will be so far off course when we do not suspect any expanded pattern to be in progress.  It’s also the biggest early indicator that stock markets are correcting with a Cycle degree flat, while gold is in a zigzag of the same degree. With the gold price crashing we know deflation is the issue, not inflation. The general markets will eventually act together or “hook-up” as all asset classes are going to deflate in price. During the 2008 crash gold, silver, gold stocks, oil and the general stock markets all crashed together for 8 intense months, while the US dollar index soared!

The exact same conditions in 2008 are present now, as the US dollar refuses to implode.  The US dollar bear market ended in 2008 with a zigzag crash, so it’s in a bullish phase that very few  USD watchers understand. It will be the huge corrections in this giant bull market that gold will perform moves that will shock us.

10,000 Boomers are retiring every day for the next 18 years so this will drain workers on a massive scale, and will no longer be producing in the economy. They will also be downsizing, and spend far less in the process. When they start to die, they will also be permanent sellers of real-estate and stock market holdings. Every western or developed country in the world has the same problem with Boomers disapearing on a massive scale.  After every market crash a fertility crash gets reported a few years later which economist don’t even look at. When the future looks bleak, then raising a family will be the furthest thing from their minds.

Hits: 36

SP500 Daily Chart Update!

 

The talking heads have declared the correction over as new record highs are being broken. The problem with that thinking is that there are expanded patterns that constantly fool us thinking that the bull market is still alive.  These types of moves can turn very violent in a short period of time, so I have deep respect for expanded patterns. This would just be the opening pattern to what will be a Cycle degree flat bear market.  Up to the first “A” wave in Primary degree a flat and a zigzag are different, but then the counter rally bull market “B” wave and the following Primary degree “C” wave can be exactly the same.

We sure have a rising wedge in progress and they are about as bearish of a signal as they come.  The entire bull market in stocks has worked with printing money on a unprecedented scale, and when the markets crash then this is asset destruction on a grand scale. It’s like throwing money in a fire and watching it burn, far less money will be around in the future as 100 trillion in world asset values could disappear in a puff of electronic smoke!

This is what happened in 1929 and the only difference now is that the 1929 crash was a Supercycle degree wave 2 crash. In 2018-2021 we will be one degree lower.  It will be worse than the 2008 recession, but not quite as bad as the 1930’s depression.

Gold will crush all the old myths about protecting you when things get crazy but this a false believe as gold will not protect you in deflationary times. Buying this market on any dip is also a crazy idea if you don’t know that a big crash is coming.

Just like the markets crashed down into 2008-2009 we are faced with the same situation 10-11 years after the 2007 peak. If we take 1929 and add the Fibonacci number 89 in years, we get 2018. 89 is only one year off from 3-30 year cycles.

This 30 year cycles works best in the gold market as for he stock market I have to calculated it a bit different, mostley from different times.

Hits: 22

Mini SP500 2000-2018 Review.

 

This market is still trying to break to new record highs, as this SP500 chart is just a few points away from establishing a new record high. All this has taken to long already so I have to explore the idea that an expanded pattern is forming in Intermediate degree. Once the main markets start to show a more ovious crash, then I expect gold to do much of the same. Gold finished a 30 year mania peak in 2011 that will not get repeated until 2041 when SC wave three should arrive.  The advantage of working in Cycle degree is that SC,GSC and Submillennium degree wave 3 are all ahead of us, as all others think we are in a GSC degree already. Flipping wave counts around like they are hamburgers  on a grill, is not what the EWP is all about. I don’t move any of my big wave positions around anymore, as from my perspective it’s more like a surgical procedure transplanting a heart!  Each move has output ramifications, attached to them, so we should be far more senstive when we flip Elliott Wave numbers around.

I don’t like the expression “wave counting” as from my perspective they are all “positions” of captured human emotions. Being out by just “ONE”  degree, will put us out by a mile or 61% or more.  An example would be 377 years, with one higher degree this would turn into 610 years long. One degree would throw us off a minimum of 144 years. My target for Submillennium degree wave 3 peak would be the year 2101!  That’s just for gold as the stock markets can be offset by many years.

WD Gann used the 60 year cycle a lot, but this 60 years, is just two 30 year cycles connected together. 3-30 year cycles is only 1 year off from the Fibonacci number 89, and I treat them as being the same.

The Death Cross, or the 200-day MA is at SP500 2300, but it will take more than that for the markets to complete any impending Death Cross. The world is siting on the most inflated markets in world history, and when they correct it will not be pretty.

At this time I’m just taking a best guess approach to the depth of an “A” wave in Primary degree, as it is still to early to make any better call.

 

Hits: 9

SP500 2000-2018 Review

Many smart analysts have compared ourpresent 2018 pattern to the 2000 peak pattern, and yes they look very similier. The valuations today are about twice as much today as when the dotcom mania of  2000 imploded.  Will it implode again? Of course it will, this hyped up, max leverage world is going to reverse and deflation is going to ravage this world which we have not seen in 100 years. Any asset class that is not secured or protected will take a hit as prices will start to crash.

This is going to be a Cycle degree wave 4 crash, just like gold and since part of a flat is the same as part of a zigzag, I can see the markets syncing up with gold later this year.

Gold and stocks may even rally together once we start on the “B” wave rally in Primary degree.  Then gold and stocks will dance together in a 1-2 year decline that could send the sp500 down to 750 and gold below $500. Sp500 below 1500 is the bare minimum and that just gets us into the previous 4th waves, not even near any bottom.

Gold should dip well below $800 and when this gold price stabilizes bit then the markets should not be too far behind gold. We could see a wild triangle rally in both SP500 and gold, which will seal their fates for the 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.  The whole world is invested sitting on top of Death Crosses, so it will be a big deflatioary crash that not to many investors think that can happen. Gold will always have 30 year cycles, so the markets will just weave in and out during the same time period.

Why such a big deflationary crash is coming, is due to the world wide fertility rate decline, which has been in full swing since the 1950’s. Birthrates also crash after each stock market crash so smaller and smaller generations numbers are being born. This has happened many times and most notable in 2010 when I read a fertility crash after a market crash.

Hits: 20