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Category Archives: Mini SP500

SP500 Daily Chart: Death Cross Watch!

This Sp500 rally has now started to fit much better as a newer high has been reached. The last five waves are a diagonal set of 5 waves. Even looks like a triangle pattern.

In the gold market this exact pattern fits into modern wave count as a bullish move not a bear market rally. This  SP500 is on a small bear market rally and it will retrace itself.  All this chart has to do is make a sudden drop and the 50-day MA will slice the 200-day MA and then the market investors are sitting on a Death Cross. Gold is doing the same thing so a huge part of all assets are going to see price crashes along with stocks.

Fundamentals do not work at the extremes and if your not a contrarian in this business then you become the victim. Do you want to be the victim when the stock bulls start falling from the sky?  The EWP is always contrarian and if you have the same wave count as the stock bulls mode suggests then our wave counts are totally wrong. Every wave counter gets caught in a trap this way, and I use their wave counts as something not to do.  When a wave count is wrong you can always bet against it! From a Cycle degree perspective, all internet wave counters are counting all the “bad” wave counts for me. They save me a lot of work, thank god! 🙂

Apple may have topped and the same with Netflix, a few more need to topple as the falling “elephants” will crush any bulls that remains standing.

In Cycle degree the SP500 match gold very well, the only difference is they are a bit out of sync but gold and the SP500 could crash the same by the time the end of  Cycle degree wave 4. Won’t that surprise the gold bulls!

My intraday wave counts are going to suffer, as I’m not a day trader and never will be. I’m sure the stock markets crash will coincide with gold’s $800 bottom so I could even pick up the count when that happens.  It is far more important to watch the gold market and the anticipated swings in gold are going to be wild.

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SP500 Intraday Chart: Keeping The Bulls Trapped!

The large chart size is to big to handle in my editor and I may have to go back to smaller sized charts. The SP500 is charging along and wants to keep going. The problem is that since the start of this rally just after April Fool’s is all choppy and distorted. What else is new?  When they are choppy like this with only a few small 5 wave runs, then It looks like the trend is going against  the bigger trend. It’s also telling me that we are in a bear market rally, in intraday style. I will repeat my meaning of a bear market rally and it applies to the intraday charts as well.

A bear market rally must retrace it’s entire move, back to and below the point of origin. In this case it would be below the April Fool’s Day of at least 2550. Talk about getting fooled by some date way back in April 2018!   😯 All this slow summer action is allowing the 50-day MA to get closer and closer in slicing the 200-day MA in half.  It’s not that far away and when this happens we end up with a Death Cross (DC).  If you don’t know how to short trade and are strictly an investor then be prepared for a summer crash into the fall. This is not some silly correction we are dealing with, but just a good old fasioned meltdow. It may be a slow meltdown, but this market could see a 70% crash, erasing trillions of dollars in just one year. This is all money destruction and money destruction is deflationary. When all stocks deflate do you think gold is going to inflate in price? In 2008 everything imploded including commodities, so I see a similar setup happening now.

Vertully every commodity I cover is sitting on a Death Cross and I’m sure all stocks also will have Death Crosses waiting for investors. Mr. Bear, the butcher of wall street bulls, is sharpening his knife as he is going to have to do alot of slicing and dicing to get the best choices for a fall barbecue.  I have tons of stuff to post but I will be reducing intraday posts as each little waves do not need to get confirm. For stocks the only thing that matters is when we get close to an “A” wave in Primary degree. “A” waves are buy signals, like oil was in the 2008 crash.

The wave counts you see on the internet, with all that intricate detail come from folks that have nothing better to do, and chances are they have no money at risk and are not active traders. It is really sad what the EWP has turned into as they keep posting garbage wave counts that break every rule in the wave principle.  If all this intricate wave counting can not produce a very good real money trade setup, or spot an impending Gold crash, then that wave count should be instantly trashed.  The action will be in gold and gold stocks, so I will spend more time on them.

 

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SP500 Bull Market Or Bear Rally?

Getting tired of this so called “bull market” yet?  This market has been keeping us confused as to what direction it really wants to go. Price is never going to tell us anything useful  becuase if it did, every average Joe and Jane investor would have been buying everything in sight at the 2009 bottom.

Many think this is a bull market because its still  going up in price. The sad fact remains is that there are always bear market rallies at every degree level. If the experts don’t know the diffrenece with a Minor degree counter rally, then they sure are not going to know when a  Primary degree bear market rally is in progress.

The rally for the last 2 months has been frusturating to say the least, but what stands out is that this rally is going against the bigger trend.  I just had to draw in the wedge which is another very useful indicator when used at the right time.  A potential “C” wave bullish phase could be finishing off, so investors are going to find out the hard way about the effects of a bear market rally once it resumes its bigger trend.

There is always a chance one more dash to the upside will happen, but I think this market is running on fumes. The 2550 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding, as any wave 3 declince will just rip through that support range with ease. To confirm any Minor degree run be it up or down, this wave two peak needs 5 waves down in Minute degree to help us identify the location we think we are in.

Not until we get another push to the downside, investors will remain oblivious to the depth of this impending bear market.  If we don’t suspect that a Cycle degree correction is coming then all support forecasts will be useless to say the least. We have to be open to the fact that any opening zigzag requires a 5-3-5 run so we have a long way to go. Another 4 months or so will get us to a potential bottom by September or October. Any counter rally at that time will also produce another fake bull market.  It may seem a bit long in this counter rally but I have no doubt that this could all pick up in speed in a dramatic fashion.

As each stage happens then they all help in pointing us to where we are in the bigger picture. Talking about any move early is the key because after it happens, its pretty useless information. Fears of a depression will be in the news but markets do the opposite of fundamentals like they did in March of 2009.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update

There is a little over 1 week left in the June contracts, after which it all moves to the September contract months.  This is the first chart for September and all the others will also follow. Since the April bottom the SP500 has had a bullish trend, but the shape of this trend sure looks diagonal in nature, which usally means the trend is going “against” the larger trend.  For now I will keep working a potential wave two rally which is starting to come up to some strong resistance levels. 2815 is not too far away which can get hit in a mini flash move to the upside.

That may be wishfull thinking as this is all taking too long to play out. The big stocks inside the SP500 are keeping it all going as some of the “FANG” stocks seemed to be doing the heavy lifting.  The big short bets against Tesla have been unsuccesful at this time. In the short term the SP500 can keep on rolling along.  Overall stocks have been ignoring all the fundamantal news as they just don’t care. If some “bad” news comes out and the markets don’t like it then we know we are over on the big bearish side already.

The VIX may also still have to hit $12 so that also can keep this bullish mood alive.  It may take a drop well below the 2540 price level before the investing herd wakes up to a potential bear market.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

While a few of the other indices have scored new record highs, the DJIA and SP500 have been lagging, It’s not that I’m looking for the SP500 to catch up, but if the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 correct the SP500 would also correct. Since April the SP500 has been in choppy rise that has little to do with an impulse, but it can still work as a “C” wave bullish  move.  Short term I’m not happy with any wave count I might come up with in the indices, so I don’t fill out all the little waves as the bigger degree level is more important.

Since February this bullish phase is starting to last longer than what I would expect out of a minor degree move, but that is what we have to deal with.  The VIX has also crushed to new lows with  some analsyts being so bullish on stocks they sound like the VIX is going to zero.  All this could still carry on until the March peak has been exceeded. When it ends all support will break down, but investors just love to buy high and then sell lower in a panic to get out. Buyers keep coming out of the woodwork, and investing into the peak of  world record high stock markets. FOMO is the big reason but being bullish when the planet is bullish will just give us the same results as the majority get.

A short term bearish move is not enough for a Cycle degree correction to be completed, and markets never stay at “Permanent highs”. Sooner or later the BS, (Bullish Sentiment) will hit the fan as bears always attack from above and it usually comes as a surprise.  Bull markets are the breeding grounds for bear markets, so I see it as just a matter of time before  any bullish phase is finishing.

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Mini Sp500 Intraday Update

The markets took a dip this morning but that does not insure anything at this time. I have different wave positions in most of the big indices I cover, so I have to practice a bit of cosmetic wave counting for the short term. I only have to keep going back to the January 2018 peak as at this time it could be pretty secure with a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. The patterns are ugly by any streach of the imagination, but they also have a tendency to smooth out over time.  We still need for this market to retrace “All” 2018 bottom support prices as that is what it will take to help us to decide if we are over into the bigger correction.

A simple little 20% correction will not do it folks. At a minimum the 1800 price level must get retraced, wiping out the entire 5th wave bullish phase in Intermedetae degree. Even then 1800 may only give us temporary support, so buying on the dips will still be far too early. Not until we reach any Primary degree “A” wave can we play a bullish phase, and even then you don’t want to make any big aggressive bullish moves at that time.

As long as the mass media talks about, “buying” the dips it tells me that they have no clue, to the size of this bear market to come.

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SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

So far this phase of the stock market has done nothing by soar in one direction and then move right back down again. Investors are having difficulty in finding a lasting trend. From the April low we could still be in a diagonal ‘C” wave rally. From the April peak, the SP500 crashed again but added a 3 wave zigzag move to a lower low.  This little 3 wave structure doesn’t fit unless it is part of an expanded pattern. If that is the case then this market could crash to the May lows, after which another shocking rally could soar past the March high.

I would have little room to spare if the next move happens, but final ending diagonal 5th waves can produce moves that will surprise many of us. There is nothing here that indicates that a bull market correction is already over. Any Cycle degree correction needs much more time and depth, before a new bull market will be ready to be unleashed.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

The gyrations continue as this market is having difficulty in making up its mind in which direction it wants to go. Right now the markets see no gloom and doom as the VIX resumes its downward march.  I had this wave count once before, but now I will bring it back even if it is just temporary. It’s a diagonal 5 wave run, which is not finished yet, but a correction is due. We are near  to completing a small 5 wave run, leading into an “A” wave peak.

In the short term bullish action would have us believe that the bull market is still on.  I could be as some of these patterns are starting to fit into an ending diagonal.  So for the short term, there are still too many different options which have to be reduced or eliminated.  Sure fundamental news gets reported but that is a 24/7 on going event.  There is no way we can pick out all the different fundamental news stories, that made the SP500 go up and then fall just as fast. Fundamentals in the world, is just “white noise” like us older folks used to get from B&W TV stations before they went off air. It’s the volume of the white noise that is important, not the specific noise. Even the DJIA is getting close to looking like the SP500, while the Russell 2000 and the Midcaps are battling for a potential triple top.

This could  drag on until the end of the month, but if it breaks, and it’s a bearish dip, then no short term price support will hold.

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Mini SP500 Gyrations Review

The short term trend seems to be down as lower highs are still the main theme. I will stick to my wave 2 top in Minor degree at this time with this bearish mood now in its 4th month. Four months without any gains must be testing the patience of investors as they think this market is still going to the moon. The stock bulls are going to get slaughtered, so prepare your fridge for some fattened bull steaks, as the bears are sharpening their claws and will slice and dice every bull they attack! Nice bunch of bears we got here, as they will show no mercy until all the stock bulls shut up!

At least the January peak is still out in the open which helps as this is where the countdown begins. What a Cycle degree 4th wave correction will look like, is uncertain at this time, but a recent KOL posting has shown us a big inverted zigzag which can happen with the DOW. I favor a Cycle degree flat, but this count puts the “A” wave in Intermediate degree down and into the future.

I will be doing a bit of cosmetic wave counting, as in the beginning of any trend can be very fuzzy. Sooner or later the new trend will show itself to a greater crowd and that is when mini panics take place. The bigger the crowd the bigger the panics will be. A straight down crash like 1987 is unlikely as now there are limits to many of these contracts, which is supposed to limit the damage that can happen.

Increased volatility is a sign that a trend reversal is in play, so the volatility will not die down until any bearish trend reverses, and the bulls take back control.  I have at least 3 different stock indices patterns to deal with so this takes time to sort out. “Cosmetic” wave counting only last for a short time, but wave counters have been practicing “Cosmetic” wave counting for decades. They have been getting away with it, because very few people understand the EWP!

No doubt about it, I was a cosmetic counter as I was stuck in GSC degree which was very unsatisfactory work. The amount of bull markets that have been missed by professional wave analysts is staggering, but luckily people have short attention spans and cosmetic wave counting will continue to flourish. I’m a “structural’  wave analysts, which means I always go “back” in time to make sure the beginning structure is correct. Going back to 1929 and going over the entire Cycle degree impulse many thousands of times is too much like hard work. It gave me much needed discipline in my wave counting and I will always keep doing it when Minor degree waves don’t act like they are supposed to.   The hunt for the “missing” 1-2 Primary degree wave count, has largely been ignored, but it is the key that unlocks the wave counts in the present.

At this time I have recorded about 27 wave three Cycle degree peaks which nobody on the internet is even doing. Technically, if all my work was moved up by only “one” degree,  I would have 27 Supercycle degree wave 3 peaks. Since 2000 not a single wave structure of SC degree has ever formed, as very specific sequences “must”  form in order to be past any Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. Many idealized SC and GSC degree patterns have already been posted years ago, but they will be collecting electronic dust until at least 2029!

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SP500 Intraday Bearish Outlook.

My ending diagonal may not happen as the markets still have downside pressure today. I did change my degree level to an intermediate degree “B” wave top. Any decline has to be 5 waves in Minor degree, not Minute degree.  I have multiple different tops between 5 different indices and sorting them out will take time. This is my third bear market since the 2000 peak and I’m very stubborn in sorting out tops.  We need a long set of 5 waves in Minor degree, which could  land us directly on the “A” wave in Primary degree.  If this wave count has more validity to it, then it can stretch and extend dramatically. It sure would help to answer the question what type of a correction Cycle degree wave 4 will have. I think I can still put any Cycle degree triangle pattern back into my inventory as any Cycle degree correction should happen in much less time

If this continues, then all support below this chart will not hold.

We will be finishing the third month of this bearish phase and that is not nearly enough time to finish a big correction. We could be heading into the summer  where the winds start blowing from the NW  much stronger flipping our little “sailboats” upside down.

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E-Mini SP500 Intraday Catching A Falling Knife?

The markets had an exciting afternoon, as it seems the bottom fell out! Don’t let that fool you because that drop has all the markings of a zigzag correction. I deliberately left all other wave counts bare until after this wave count fails. Folks, I’m showing what could be a diagonal 4th wave zigzag crash, and we could see a rocking bullish phase return.  It is clearly an ending diagonal at this time because wave 4 is well inside wave two parameters. Wave 2 and wave 4 zigzags look identical, but they are still very different as wave 4 subdivides much better.

With a potential rising wedge which is mostly used for bull markets. If we look to the start of the top wedge line, what the hell do we see?  Another H&S that helped to determine a top. If the market is still bullish then this top trend line could get lifted. Exceeding March highs would be nice, but the SP500 should not push to new record highs.

This diagonal which is in Minute degree also changes the entire degree I have been using since the wave 3 top. I mentioned that this market was in a pattern with not very smooth flowing moves. Plus, it was taking  too long to resume the bigger decline, so this impending little bear trap will answer more of my questions. I have run into many of these types of diagonals and they sure will not be the last that we will run into.

The more this market gyrates the more conflicting fundamentals we will read about. This will confuse the majority and we end up having no clue which direction this market is going.  This could all happen in a very short time ending close to the end of the month or early May.

If this decline clears below my wave 2, then this wave count is instantly trashed

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SP500 Intraday Gyrations Update.

Since the January top it looks like a nice 5 wave decline, but it has not been flowing as nicely as I expect, from a 5 wave decline in Minor degree.  The DOW and the Nasdaq have both created wave peaks that just do not fit into the bigger picture very well. I did go back to the 2016 peak where the wave 1-2 in Minor degree sits, so instead of a Cycle degree peak it could be a Minor degree peak. The bottom trend line from wave two, can now fit with the bottom in early April.  Right now the markets are in a decline and it will be critical to see if it turns again and creates yet another higher high.

Any 5th wave can form a diagonal wave pattern so this could get very choppy in the short term.  Any new record lows will kill this wave count, but I have to run this wave count to eliminate it.  We are in a decline, but the SP500 could turn into a correction, and a mini bear trap.  Any dip below the diagonal wave 2, would also kill this bullish wave count, so many things can go wrong in a short period of time.

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Mini SP500 2000-2018 Review: Buying The Dips?

When intraday gyrations seem a bit foggy, then it is always a good time to review the big picture, looking at where we came from, and then where we are heading to.  Analysts are becoming frothy again as they say this market has turned and all new record highs are coming. The crashing of the VIX confirms it as they say that bigger bullish moves are ahead of us.

We can go back a relatively short time period to the 2000 peak where the majority were also very bullish but yet the markets imploded, just like they did again in the 2008 crash. Now those crashes were dips as well, but the majority were sellers, not buyers at the previous two lowest dips.

The majority of experts have no clue how deep the next bottom will dip down to, so those investors and their clients are going to go down with the ship because they refuse to ignore financial history.

I show two stages for the next decline with the SP500 1800 price level being a potential resting spot before a downside breakout happens.  The general guideline for the depths of bear market retracements is near the bottom of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. If we have no clue what our 2018 peak actually is, then any previous 4th wave forecast is pretty meaningless. I have mentioned it a few times already, and that is “NO” 5th wave peak must be left “uncapped”, otherwise they have broken the wave sequence and we might as well be playing Snakes & Ladders!  BTW, in January, 2018 we have 2 ending 5th waves yet I left one uncapped. After a Primary degree 5th wave has peaked, then a Cycle degree number must find a permanent home.

The SP500 won’t even get close to the top of the previous 4th wave until it crashes through the 1600 price level, while SP500 700-800 would get us near the lows of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. The 4th wave crash in Cycle degree is the real important dip as that is the only dip that will send the markets into another major bull market.  Flipping big wave counts around like a person flips burgers, is not my style as counted like that for over 15 years.

If you are looking for some SC or GSC degree wave count your not going to get it at Elliott Wave 5.0 as from my perspective, both of those degree levels are  still 11-12 years in the future. Don’t get me wrong, as we are still in SC degree wave 3, and still on GSC degree wave 3 as well. Both will never arrive if all 5 waves in Cycle degree are not found and confirmed.

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Is The Mini SP500 Going To The Moon?

I did have a very bullish wave count all done, where we are in a “C” wave bullish phase that would take out this 2810 peak above my wave 2 in Minor degree, if that becomes the case, then the wave 2 would just move over to the new peak and then the real wave 3 in Minor degree should get going.  We are bouncing of a strong double bottom, so eventually that bottom will get retraced when the downside breakout happens.  Right now 2680 could offer very stiff resistance, combine that with a potential inverted Megaphone, and we have the makings of another potential bull trap.  This would be a wave 2 top in Minute degree. By this Saturday we will have a new moon so any attempt in getting there may have serious problems.  🙄

This may drag on into next week, but US Tax Day is April, 17th which also could wreck havoc in the markets. If you haven’t noticed, many of the top tech companies are having problems all at the same time.  Markets don’t stop on a dime, so when the trend does start to change, volatility starts to explode.

I have not seen so many crybabies about volatility in 2000 or even 2007 as I have seen in this 2018 year, so I expect all to get worse.  Buying on the dips in a big bear market will become deadly, but investors have been brainwashed to do that. It’s the big dip like the SP500 at 750 which will become important and if and when it gets there, all those dip buyers will be sellers as they run for the hills.

There will be clues when the markets get oversold, but they will not show up until a few months ahead of any major bottom.

For any Cycle degree 4th wave correction to end, we have to look at the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which would be Primary degree.  I see three price stages where this bear market can go and the first stage is for a complete retracement to the 1800 price level. Only until below SP500 1600, will the markets enter the top of a 4th wave correction. It usually takes into the lower part of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree before a bottom arrives.

Either way another week or so should show which trend is for real. At this time I’m still after 5 waves down in Minor degree. Even when we get to any “A” wave in Intermediate degree, any counter rally could be very mundane and even short lived. We could run into a bear market that will be hard to see clear Primary degree counter rallies, which is exactly what happen in the GSC degree decline down into 1842. There may not be a panic until the majority of participants all see the same thing at the same time.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Update

Any rally we have had in the last 3-4 trading days sure doesn’t fit into any impulse as it is just too choppy to justify counting it out as an impulse.  I would love to see this chart go a bit higher as that would completely retrace a small zigzag that hasn’t been completely retraced yet. Many times they can turn into running zigzags as well, but it will be a tough call either way.  We should find out in a few more days or closer to midweek what is going to happen.  The experts have just noticed that no new record highs have formed in 50 days as they seemed to be paralyzed in making a bigger bearish call.

 

They also have been bitching about the extreme volatility in the markets, which they think is not normal. It’s normal in a bear market, but bull markets tend to flow much smoother.  All I can say is, “Take A Pill”,  volatility is just getting started.

If we’re lucky the January 2018 peak of 2880 will be the high for the 2018 year and even hold for the next 3 years. Many bear markets in the past have ended with years ending with a 2, like 1932, 1942, 1842, 2002. My GSC degree wave 2 ended in 1842 but it took 8 years to decline. SC degree wave 2 only took 3 years to decline, so any Cycle degree decline will be about the same or even a bit shorter.

Bare minimum the SP500 has to retrace the 1800 price level, but that could be just a temporary resting spot in a long bearish decline. Many are using the trade wars as an excuse for the markets decline, but trade wars act to slow in a digital world. The Cyber warfare going on is attacking the US infrastructure on a regular basis as hacker groups and unfriendly governments attack the US.  There is far more power to destroy from the Internet as groups can go viral virtually overnight.   Chinese net users call for US boycott over trade clash – Nikkei Asian Review.

Trump may think he has the power to wage economic war with other countries like China and Russia, but all they have to do is devalue their currency and the trade war would be neutralized.  We can have crashes without any bear markets (1987), but we can also have initial crashes which are then followed by a long grinding bear market.

The 1842 GSC degree wave 2 decline and bottom, were just grinding declines acting more like a set of 5 waves  than a zigzag. I already have produced the template for such a decline as I explore a few of the options for a Cycle degree corrective pattern.

Bear markets have a nasty habit of retracing  back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, but if the degree is wrong, then how do we know where the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree even is? Most of the time bull markets will retrace deep into the previous 4th wave, and sometimes even push a bit lower. Something that may seem normal in the Elliott Wave world, would be considered insane by the majority, until it happens.

The SP500 previous 4th wave low has a gully around the 666 price level, but it may stop well short of that at around 700 or even 750!

Most of the world indices like the Nikkei, Shanghai, Nifty, and the DAX are all in the same fleet of boats, that are already sinking. Like Steven Jon Kaplan said, “The object is not to find a safe cabin on a sinking ship, but the priority should be to get the f$#k off the ship”!

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SP500 2009-2018 Bull Market Review

This is the index for the SP500 and does not move during the night trading sessions. I will try and only use two types of  trend lines with both trend lines being even. In this case the trend line is based on the top trend line and then it is duplicated with the bottom trend line. At times I do add a third parallel line in the middle as it can track trends that are one degree lower. I don’t believe in this perpetual bull market going on forever as “ALL” trends always come to an end, and they come to an end when nobody expects them to end. The herd of investors that surged in last week, are already losing money. They have been brainwashed to buy on the dips, but they are buying on the dips for what?  They are hoping for the bull market to return which tells me that they have no clue how deep this next correction will be.

The monthly ETF outflows have not slowed down last month.  ETFs Register Outflows For 2nd Month In March | ETF.com Those that are selling seemed to be more knowledgeable than the investors jumping in, so this does not send any overwhelming bullish messages to me. It all depends on what you believe, what the peak 2018 stock market wave count is, because that determines on how deep this market can eventually go.

I’M looking for a Cycle degree correction, not just some short blip in an ongoing bull market. At the very minimum any 5th wave will get retraced, and that might be the end of the correction, if we just finished a wave 1 in Intermediate degree. I have seen wave counts that called the 2009 bottom a wave two in SC degree, but then we would have to be at a wave 1 top in Cycle degree now! The markets are not ending in a wave one, they are ending on a 5th wave, and a very choppy 5th wave it was. In an entire sequence of 5 waves, the 5th wave is always fundamentally the weakest, even though they can extend and look very strong.

The majority of all expert wave analysts are working from a 4th wave base. I think it is impossible for a 5th wave bull market to survive three or more solar cycle seasons. The SP500 didn’t show any triangle between the 1970 and 1974, but at that time period, it sure fits into a wave 1-2 in Primary degree.

In our little “Blue Book” (EWP) a big correction can crash back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, and sometimes they travel a bit lower like the 2009 bottom did. To even get close to entering any part of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, this SP500 chart has to go below the $1576 price level.

If nobody knows where the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree is then even that forecast will be worthless and irrelevant. Since 2013 my goal has been to hunt, find and confirm all the 5 waves in Cycle degree. Until the 5th wave has been found and completed, there is no mathematical chance to slip into the world of SC and GSC degree wave counting. Every letter or number we change sends us traveling forwards or backwards in time. When we are counting in SC degree, then we’ve made a time “jump” from Cycle degree at the same time. In short a SC degree world is in the future and its’ forecasts mean nothing in our present day Cycle degree world.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Update!

 


 

The markets have started to correct, but for how long is arguable at this time.  I would love to see this wave structure finish and push south, but the fact remains, a diagonal wave structure could be starting so this market can still push much higher.  We need to see a small correction and then push higher again if the present bottom is going to hold for a little while longer.

Any bullish phase could head up forming a double top along the way as this market is trying to fool us again. Don’t get me wrong, this market can go south dramatically, but  that would be the easy thing to  expect. For this SP500 to leave us with a clear Cycle degree top, is just too simple or easy to accept at this time.

The small bullish move we’ve had in the last few days has to completely retrace itself, before it can be called a completed zigzag. My updates will be a bit short at times this week, as many other wave counts need attention as well.

For now we have to see if this rally has legs, but if it does not, then only a complete retracement of this move would be acceptable.

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E-Mini SP500: Impending Rally Update?

Talk about a great downside breakout, but the angle of this present decline has been very steep.  Some counter rally is due, which could trigger all the “Buy” stops.   Usually the spikes get retraced, if a small 5th wave move has just completed. A fast move back up to the 2720 price level at the 4th wave peak, could also happen.  If this potential wave 2 rally happens, then we need wave 3-4-5 to play out.

That might get us to wave 1 in Minute degree. I will keep some of these updates rather short as when markets change directions, violence can ensue.

The US dollar would also see a rally, if stocks suddenly reversed on some “good”news. If any so called “good” news comes out and stocks hardly move, then any rally will be a fake and then die just as fast. Continuously getting lower highs, is just a bull market in reverse, at least for some of the 5 wave sequences.

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Mini SP500: Having A Bad Hair Day!

For a brief time investors were indifferent to any rate increase, but they were already bearish well before the announcement on Wednesday. We also have a great looking H&S top which can give us a very ominous sign, that can also work as a brick wall. At very tops in bull markets H&S are not bullish indicators like they were during most of the 2009-2018 bull market. In a bull market the right shoulder would constantly break higher!

For the first part the February bottom must get completely retraced to kill the idea that this rally is not part of the bull market. It is the Mini DJIA that has a different count, but it will also do what all the other indices will do, and that is to head south!  What that means is that the SP500 can bottom a bit later than what the DJIA might do. This all could smooth out as any trend gets more established.

The love affair for big tech stocks is starting to wane, being anti Facebook is going to be the thing to do as privacy issues are a concern. Investors are finding out how those “FANG” stocks can get clawed to death by the market bears.

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Mini Sp500 Intraday Update

Nothing has changed radically in the last few days as the markets have not made a convincing move just yet. Any Fed announcement could still send the markets soaring. Any diagonal 4th wave bottom could still be developing.  We have a H&S top which does not inspire me to keep a very bullish outlook, but hopefully by the end of the week this mediocre movie will show its true colors.   Many analysts are calling for a correction with many different price projections being forecast.

My question is, “How Big Of A Correction”?  We have hundreds and even thousands of corrections in a bull market so knowing what degree of correction is critical. I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction, which could eventually take the SP500 back down to the 800 price level.  When the SP500 ever gets there, I’m sure all the experts will no longer call it a “correction”, but they will call it a full blown “bear market”.

We can have crashes without bear markets just like the 1987 crash. In 1930 the markets started a bear market that took two years to bottom so any comparable move could also take just a few years.  There is no logic to time when using degree levels as we had a Primary degree correction that took 4 years and a Supercycle correction that only took 3 years! All  my stock market wave counts are based on finding the 5 waves in Cycle degree because without them, we have no hope of of moving into the world of SC degree wave counting.  I spent years, counting the markets in SC degree, but when we were all missing huge bull markets then this raised some serious questions.

I switched to Cycle degree counting in 2013 and I have not found any need to switch again. We can dick around with wave position gymnastics  at the smallest degree level, but they mean nothing if we keep missing bull markets.

This market has to produce lower highs, and lower lows with all rallies having a limited life span. This is how conventional wisdom is called a bear market.

 

My updates are going to be sporadic this week as I have many other things that need my attention, but I will update when I can.

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Mini-SP500 Intraday Gyrations Upate

At this time it looks like I will have to run different wave counts in about 3 out of 5 indices. The wave counts are dramatically different with the tradeable contracts than from the indexes, which only move during the day. Futures that are traded have a wild and wooly look and feel that can distort the wave counts.  It could all smooth out a bit, which I have noticed in other future contacts as well.

This Mini SP500 contract did not travel to a new record high which I can’t use as a truncated 5th wave, but it must belong to the bigger bearish phase already.  There could be some real violent moves in both directions later this week as any Fed announcement can send markets into a dizzy spin.  I will not be happy until this market takes out all the lows of last month, but it could rest just before any downside breakout may occur.

Wave 2 in Minor degree may be finished and I’m sure I don’t need to draw out the rest of the move. By weeks end things could be different if diagonal wave structures are involved. It’s still too early to tell if a big flat or a big zigzag will dominate, but the big triangle can still be ignored at this time. We don’t have enough time before solar cycle #25 starts, for any triangle to completely play out.

I’m bearish no matter what we get, even though I may turn bullish at some counter rallies.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Update: Tired Of Playing the Nasdaq Game?

These futures contracts are far more violent than the SP500 index  charts that I have posted. It’s like they come from two different planets. In February we have two major bottoms, but when we switch to line type settings,  that wave 1 in Minor degree is much longer.

What must be obvious is that we have another lower high since the January peak and if we draw a line across this first lower high, we get a H&S pattern rolling over as well. Looking for lower highs too early in the game doesn’t always work, especially when we are dealing with a 4th wave.

As I post the markets are still heading down so my wave counts may have a longer life span at this time.

The Gold/SP500 ratio hit 2.0:1 which means it takes two gold ounces to buy one unit of the Mini Sp500.  I have many readings at this ratio, which tells me the markets are smashing up against a ratio brick wall. A cheap ratio would get closer to .75:1, so this ratio would have a long way to compress before we even get close when this market becomes oversold again.

I may switch to any ESY00 or even the SPY00 charts  more often to get a different perspective.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Review

Those investors that have no clue that bearish rallies can soar for years and travel much further than even a 61% move will make, will always get fooled when jumping on every rally with the fear of missing out.

The markets are still in nosebleed territory, as they are having difficulty in deciphering this “trade war” that we keep hearing about. The mass media just loves the idea of a trade war, and you can tune into any financial blog and chances are good they will be talking about the impending trade war.  A bear market constantly needs lower highs to develop, which any 5 wave decline will produce.

Big “B” wave rallies will be harder to accept as even they could rally 80% or more.  Markets will always try and fool the majority, and when they go down, they blame it on manipulation. It seems that everyone has forgotten the 2007-2008 market crash, or they think  the markets should never go down. I feel very confident in saying, that in the future we will see many more bear markets yet.

Many investors think that markets should never go down, so when they do go down, they will blame the decline on something else. God help us if we have such stupid investors out there, that actually think that markets never go down. Buying high, betting on that it goes much higher will always get you into a bull trap sooner or later.  There are still too many stock bulls around that are foaming at the mouth, just waiting for this crazy melt-up that they feel will surely come.

This vertical melt-up has already happened, which started in early 2016 from the 1800 price level. At a bare minimum the SP500 bear market should completely retrace that 1800 target. This still amounts to a mere bee sting in a Cycle degree world.  We can have crashes without bear markets with the 1987 crash, being a prime example. That crash was over in a few short months, with no real bear market that followed.

Now the 1929-1932 decline had a crash followed by a 2 year bear market and that market crash was also triggered by a trade war.

If the markets are over on the bearish side, then lower lows will be the trend and the impending 1800 price level will never hold. Even the SP500 1000 price level will get crushed in the next few years,. Investors are going to find out the hard way how investing for the long term works with this impending bear market.

I show a “B” wave top and I’m using it to either confirm or trash a big Cycle degree zigzag. I’m very confident at this time that we are not going to get a Cycle degree triangle, as solar cycle #25 will kill that idea pretty quick. I’m sure that betting against the sun in 2020, will keep investors in a mega bear trap, as the markets start to soar for a 500% gain.

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SP500 Intraday Rally Review

This week may be the last week, that any March contracts will be finished, after which I have to jump to June contracts with most of the indices I cover.  From Friday’s decline the markets found some joy and soared in hopes things will not be as bad as it seems. As long as the media is conducting a trade war, the chances for the markets to go down outnumber and reason that that this market should go up!

Trade war fears are not going to go away, as this kind of action has worldwide domino repercussions. 30-Day Fed Fund rates still have downside potential, which means that rate increases, are still to come during 2018.

We need the markets to clearly show lower highs, but these can happen in any 4th wave as well. This is what happened in the  2015 correction.  If another small degree wave 2 rally is in progress, then the SP500 cannot go higher than my “B” wave in Minor degree.  (Blue).  This “B” wave I’m showing is the start of a potential zigzag in intermediate degree.

This would be the start of a Cycle degree zigzag wave 4 correction, which the majority of analysts will call a “bear market”.

We can have market crashes without the bear market, as that is exactly what happened in the crash of 1987. The 87 crash was over in a few short months, but it sure will take longer in today’s markets. The 87 crash was only a Minor degree wave 3 crash, which the majority of wave analysts have used as a Primary degree crash. My 1987 crash Minor degree wave count,  is a “Full” 2 degrees lower, in what the experts have used.

These contracts that trade during the night, do produce some erroneous spikes that don’t show up, when switching this chart into line type charts.  The markets are still heading higher as I post, but we can take a bit more. We just can’t clear the “B” wave in Minor degree.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Crash Update!

I’m showing a Minor degree “AB” wave with the “B” wave ending just before the end of February. This was also a full moon date and the news about the president Trumps war on cheap imports, became front blog page news.  They couldn’t find a fundamental reason why the markets should crash as all the fundamentals were still bullish.  They sure have their fundamental reasoning now!

Fundamentals are lagging indicators not leading, indicators so any bearish news would pick up the declines intensity.  This “B” wave that I labeled, would belong to a set of diagonal 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, which can only work if this Cycle degree crash turns into a zigzag. I may run this for the month of March, or until it gets trashed, whichever comes first.

The recent talk about steel and aluminum import duties that president Trump has started, has brought this to the front pages. This has all happened before folks. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of June, 17, 1930 was the last time a tariff war was conducted and it was one of the main causes of the 1929 crash and 193o-1932 bear market decline. At that time the markets gyrated everytime the Tariff Act was discussed in Congress, which was well documented in the book on “How The World Works” by Jude Wanniski.

Will this all produce a “depression”? I say “no” because in order for that to happen the US dollar needs to charge up into a major bullish phase and all stocks “and” commodities would have to crash down together!  All prices must get cheaper as the US dollar would increase in purchasing power.

With Jerome Powell indicating that three rate increases are still coming this year, this combination of bad fundamental news was enough to give the kiss of death to a bull market. Sometimes I use the 30 and 90 day simple moving averages on 90 minute charts which gives you many “Death and Golden Crosses”.

With a 30-90 day setting, we can see the Death Cross happening much sooner than when we use any 50-200 day SMA. There was one Golden Cross last month, and in March we now have another Death Cross!  Of course, this all becomes unreliable if I make any changes in any of my settings. Right now the SP500 is approaching the 30 day SMA, which could produce some resistance. With a 50-200 SMA my search for Death Crosses on daily charts has been largely a futile effort.  I think if they showed up more often the mainstream analysts will notice them and report them.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

The SP500 is far from breaking new record highs. It is only the Nasdaq that is getting close to breaking out into new world record highs.

Just incase I have beaten the Cycle degree flat drum too long, the above chart would be the beginnings of a zigzag in Cycle degree.  The markets would have to show us another 5 waves down in Minute degree which would then end up at wave 1 in Intermediate degree.

Any top trend line is worthless to use and any invisible bottom trend line is still a bit away from getting hit.  Another Shock&Awe move would help to confirm the bigger bearish phase, but I would throw this wave count out the window in a flash, if these markets do not perform like a bearish phase should.

Dow tumbles nearly 300 points on new Fed chair’s comments | New York Post

Jerome Powell is the new man in charge and the mass of investors, listen to his every word, when they want to!  They didn’t care that much when Janet Yellen was raising rates, but now they seemed to care. If rates are not an issue just yet, then this market could still soar.

If good news no longer pushes the markets up,  then we are over on the big bearish side already. Tomorrow is the full moon and employment numbers should come out on Frida as well. These reports can send the markets into a tizzy, but other times they get completely ignored.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Update

The Mini SP500 created a peak and now has started to back off. This doesn’t mean the stock party is over as another small leg up can still happen.  This rally has turned right at a small bear market rally peak, creating a potential H&S pattern. No sooner had investors injected record amounts into stocks in January, and as soon as the markets dipped, they started pulling out record funds.

Stock-market tumble sends investors fleeing equity funds – MarketWatch

They will always find someone or something to blame for the intraday crash, and the VIX is a prime scapegoat. It’s never the fault of crazy investors who get themselves in a trap situation. They also start to cry that manipulation is bringing this market down. Just about anything that goes down, they will blame on market manipulation.  These guys that believe in market manipulation, figure that markets should never crash.  All trends eventually come to an end, but only a very small amount of contrarians know this fact instinctively.

Insiders are long gone out of this market and only the emotional investors remain. My method of operation, is to always build the wave counts down when stocks are pointing up, and then build the wave count going up once the bear market has shown itself to the rest of the world.

I think it is far more important to catch a major stock market low as only a very small percentage of traders can take advantage of a decline by betting short in the market.  Besides smart short players do not need any wave counts to tell them how to bet short. By late 2008 the markets already signalled that a reversal was coming. The VIX had already peaked at 90 and was about to implode.

As I post the markets are still pushing higher, so this peak so far may not hold. There are spikes that show up, but they have more to do with high speed computer algorithms than human clicks of the mouse. “Algorithms Gone Wild” is more like it. One thing that is always certain and that is, large amounts of protective sell stop orders are piling up below present prices. Eventually they will all get triggered sending the markets to a new record low.

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SP500 Index 2000-2018 Review

For many years I counted everything using Supercycle degree (SC) and Grand Supercycle (GSC) degree wave counting methods. The 2000 and 2007 peaks were relatively easy to track even with my degree levels being from another planet. The bottoms never inspired  the confidence to make extremely bullish calls.

The entire planet works on price, but price is only a small part of what has happened. You can see there are no prices in the chart above, but the majority of wave analysts include, every conceivable price you can imagine! Still the majority of all wave analysts did not see the bull market coming in late 2008. Since 2000 we have seen three sets of wave 3 peaks with the 2007 peak being a bit subdued compared to other ones. This is ok as it still broke higher than the 2000 peak.

The reason that the SP500 has three sets of wave 3 peaks is because none of the wave 3s of the past has ever been extended. The entire wave counting world is working from a 4th wave base. I’m working from a wave two base, all the time. Thinking that all the extensions are 5th waves, will always put us into a much higher degree level, than we actually are.

From the 2009 bottom to our present top is one move, but subdivided into 5 moves in Intermediate degree. Once 5 waves in any degree level are completed a correction must happen. How big the dip may turn out to be, is entirely related to what degree level our present top is going to be. If Cycle degree wave 3 is the real target, then a Cycle degree 4th wave correction must happen, otherwise it’s back to the drawing board playing with our paint by numbers set. This is just a cosmetic wave counting method, and in reality you have to go back a minimum of 100 years and start a completely new wave count each time. I’ve done it 1000’s of times hunting each time for those missed wave three extensions.

Going back 100 years sounds too much like work, so it never gets done, which causes false degree levels to be perpetuated into the future. From my perspective and in sequential order, SC degree wave 3, GSC degree wave 3 and Submillenniun wave 3, are still far into our futures.

If we’re lucky we might hit a SC degree wave three, by 2029, and GSC degree wave 3 by the 2129 time period.

While all the analysts are busy forecasting an ever increasing rosy future, I’m busy looking at and building the alternate future.

I have two lines in the chart above, with the first one at the 1800 price level, which would retrace the entire 5th wave in Intermediate degree. The 2009 bottom fell well below the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which was in late 2002. Not quite 2 years for an Intermediate degree correction. It only took 3 years for a SC degree correction from 1929-1932, so a Cycle degree 4th wave correction might only last three years as well. We sure are “not” going to get some 600 year, GSC degree bear market.

At 1800, the SP500 would not even get close to any required previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, but anything below the SP500 1000 price level would. All the smart technical analysts will draw the megaphone bottom, which points to the SP500 price level around 500.   Everybody on the planet will see the same thing, which usually means that it will never happen. The markets will pull out all the stops to try and fool us a again, and it may do that by “Not” falling below those 2009 lows.

Just because the SP500 may have dipped 10% does not mean that the correction is finished. Like I said, price has little to do with it, but the pattern is everything. Only one completed set of 5 waves in Minute degree does not complete a correction. You can wish hope and pray all you want, but you can’t turn a single 5 wave sequence into a completed correction.

Sure, all the 5 indices I covered soared again late last week, but that can all be due to short covering. Many traders are trying to short DIA and SPY ETFs already, to a point where no more DIA can be borrowed.

Protective sell stops are stacked up below present prices, and once they start to get triggered, we could get the next leg down. All the SP500 has to do is fall below 2530 again, which will help to confirm that, “The Big Dip”,  is in progress.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

Is the stock rally running out of steam or is it going to soar to the moon with another super leg up?  Many experts say that this is just a healthy 10% correct and that this bull market will return and soar once again.

Blame Ontario Minimum Wage Hike for Canada Job Plunge. Or Not. – Bloomberg

The experts see no recession on the horizon in the US markets, but in Ontario, where they voted themselves a minimum pay increase  massive amounts of layoffs were announced. I doubt it very much that the USA will skirt a recession while Canadian fundamentals implode.

Fundamentals are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. It took 9 years for the fundamentals to change from horrible in late 2008 to great in early 2018. When the markets start to turn down again, you can bet that the experts will come up with all sorts of fundamental reasons why the markets are going down. The second deep plunge in February sure looks like a nice declining impulse, but in reality it counts out much better as a diagonal making it a potential 5th wave.

Today is also a new moon date, which in the past has produce some dramatic or very energetic reversals.  The February double bottom will never hold if the “Dip” so far, is actually just the start of the  “Big Dip” in Cycle degree.  The blame game will continue as they always need a scapegoat to blame stock market losses on. It’s never about stupid investors or stupid money managers that always get into a trap, but they will blame computer trading as part of the reason. The fact is behind every computer trade is a human with an itchy finger sending Algorithms crazy.

Below todays present prices, the protective “Sell stops” are piling up, and we don’t need any fancy computer to figure that out. Traders have been brainwashed to move protective stops up, which will easily get triggered once the “Big Dip” resumes. “Big Dip” I mean a Cycle degree 4th wave dip, not some pussy Minor degree correction that we are presently in.

They had a “Big Dip” from 1929 to 1932 as well, which was a Supercycle degree dip. That only took 3 years to play out. I’m sure any Cycle degree “dip” will not take any longer.  In the long run solar cycle #25 will put a screeching halt to any bearish wave counts or bearish fundamentals that we can dream up.  Solar Cycle #24 also destroyed all the bears by early 2009, so never underestimate the power of the sun on human affairs on earth.

The Gold/SP500 ratio has been hitting 2:1 on the expensive side from a (.75:1) ratio on the cheap side.  When the bearish mood returns, then this 2:1 ratio will never be exceeded for many years.

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Sp500 Intraday Rally Running Out Of Steam?

The SP500 created a double bottom in February before it rose in a violent fashion ending on the upside last week. At this time I’m going to count this as a 1-2 and then another 1-2 count, which would mean a longer wave 3 count. All we need is one more 1-2 wave structure to complete, then we would certainly be getting a long wave 3. It can all fall apart very quickly, but the main idea is to eliminate wave counts as soon as possible.

This great looking double bottom should not hold if we are over into the big bear market side already. ( The Big Dip) Fundamentals have not really changed, but that has always been the case as fundamentals are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. It took well over 8 years for those horrible fundamentals in 2009 to change to better fundamentals by 2018. At the extremes, fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things, just like they did in 1987, 2000, 2007 and now in early 2018.  Rate increases might be enough bad fundamentals to push this market down, but other fundamental reasons may appear at anytime.

EWI is also bragging that they they have hit the top, which they seemed to be pretty good at doing. Creating a great short trade setup can only benefit a very small percentage of traders, but they seemed to miss more bull markets than we can shake a stick at. Missing any major bull market is unacceptable as the older we get, the fewer bull markets we can afford to miss.

Steven Jon Kaplan started to call for a bull market back in late 2008 already, as the VIX peaked and insider buying reports were flooding the mainstream news sites.   This is when the stock bulls should have been screaming, “buy”,  but sadly enough all the wave analysts were bearish just like the majority were.

I’m sure this same setup will happen again and all the wave followers will miss another 8 year bull market. From 2009 to January 2018 the SP500 gained about 430%, which was only an Intermediate degree 5 wave run. The next bull market will be a 5 wave run in Primary degree, which I’m sure will give participants, 500% or more gains, in another 8 year bull market.

All the fancy wave counting in the world is pretty useless if we keep missing bull markets. We are still some time away from a real, meaningful bottom as a simple 10% correction will not do it. Even a 50% correction will not do it, as that would only suggest a move back to the average.

When solar cycle #25 arrives, then you no longer should be in any  bearish positions, as our sun makes or breaks all bull and bear market cycles.  The sun overrides the power of the wave counts at anytime, and it will be no different when solar cycle #25 starts.

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