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Category Archives: Mini SP500

SP500 Intraday Peak Review

Investors had a bit of downtime on Monday but the SP500 peaked out on Friday, January 18th.  Since then the SP500 has been slowly grinding down. The entire move since late 2018 sure fits into a 3 wave move which can be just a bear market rally.  On Sunday we also had a full moon which can act like a bull trap at certain times.  The world sad state of affairs will not get fixed with just a short correction as it will take years to unwind the deep debt that all governments are presently in.  At the 2680 price level, we also have a very tall H&S pattern being set-up which would be very bearish if the bear market rally is real.

The trend lines are there as it also looks like a rising wedge at this intraday level.  Not until the SP500 crashes well below the 2580 price level, can we still be in a bigger bullish phase?

The question I always have for the stock bulls is, “Where is this bullish phase going to”? Is the “bottom in”? Is it a bottom for a return to a multi-year bull market?  I’m looking for a bullish phase as well, but this is not it no matter how bearish the stock bears become.  Insiders would also be buying their own shares back and I don’t mean using shareholders money to try and manipulate their own stocks.  Buy-backs manipulate earnings with only a temporary effect even though they waste shareholders money. Companies that pay dividends or buy their own shares back are sending clear signals telling  you, ” We  have nothing better to do with investors money”.

Apple fits that description very well and once it started paying dividends under investors pressures, its innovations declined.  When we read countless stories about insider buying their own shares back then we might see a potential bottom for a big bullish move. Insiders did this on a massive scale in 2008, and they do not buy on a whim, and they most certainly don’t sell on a “Whim”.  A bottom with insider buying lasts much longer so if you were still bearish in March 2009 you will be left holding a wooden nickle like all the wave analysts did.  Thinking back to 2009 can give most investors brain cramps as researching that far back sounds too much like work. Talking about the market peaks in 2000 would be 18 year ancient history.

Solar Cycle #24 was underway by early 2009 yet all the wave analysts ignored this fact as in 2009 they all had very bearish wave counts. The wave analysts that are still chasing 5 waves down in Primary degree are living in La-La Land as they have learned nothing in the last 18 years!  Expert wave analysts are also telling us that 5th waves can extend 50 years or more which I think is impossible as 5th waves always contain the weakest fundamentals. Besides that, not a single 4th wave bottom in 1932 or 1974 have the markets ever retraced back to. The reason this has never happened is that 1932 was not a 4th wave bottom in SC degree.

2020-2021 could see the arrival of solar cycle #25 and being bearish when a solar cycle starts to crank-up will put investors right back into a bear trap much like early 2009!  Solar cycle studies were in the books of EWI, yet at that time they ignored solar cycles just like they ignored insider buying.

 

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SP500 Intraday Update

So far the SP500 is keeping its bullish trend while the VIX created a huge decline.  I have only one trend line which the SP500 is starting to cross or roll over. Any bigger dip will help confirm that the SP500 could be losing it’s power, as buyers take a rest. Markets are just big auction sales which always gets sold to the highest bidder and I see the markets reacting the same way.

I can’t get a correction out of the VIX as it looks like 5 waves down. I’m sure the VIX will crank up again as the VIX could be on a “C” wave decline.  All this might still take the rest of the week to play out, as little choppy waves stretch time. US government shutdown has killed any COT reports and once the government gets up and running again, we could get a COT “Data Shock”. My last report will be a month old by January 20th so positions could make dramatic shifts when it gets released again.

The Market Vane Report I still get is a private report, which shows that 47%-48% bulls were present all last week. There are still too many bulls around to keep fueling this bullish phase for another major leg up. Our 24 month high was 73% bulls, which is not as extreme as it can get, but enough to kill the stock bull. The basic logic is when the majority are bullish then who is left to get in. Is it a tribe that just came out of a cave or just another greater fool chasing a bull market? FOMO is a popular bull trap

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SP500 E-Mini Daily Chart Update

I will stay with the big wave structure until this wave count shows me otherwise. Fast moves like this tend to never last that long as most moves like this are just emotional moves. FOMO or unstable algorithms producing flash crashes is part of the landscape that we can’t avoid. The SP500 is starting to flatten out a bit so it’s just a matter of time before some mentally unstable algorithms start to freak-out.  I’m just having a bit of fun here as algorithms are not human but very few people can tell the difference. Algorithms are created by humans just the same.  Traders can’t move as fast so spikes are produced which usually develop at turnings.

The bigger the spike the bigger or longer any counter rally will last. Since the 2018 January peak, we’ve had more spikes that we can count and each one produced a reversal.

In candlestick form, you would have to count all the “Hairs”, (Wicks) and always know the price of each “hair” tip.  If this rally is a bearish rally then a new low below 2040 should happen. Many analysts are very bullish at this point, but they were also bullish at every major top we’ve had so far.

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SP500 Rally To Keep Going?

The rally I was working has traveled further than what I would like to see, which makes the unthinkable of a new record high a real possibility.  This January rally being a small degree was enough to force a review starting back at the 2009 bear market bottom.  In this case, I looked at extending wave 3 in Intermediate degree. I’m sure this market rally has something to do with investors trying to top off their retirement accounts. That December 26th bottom left a big spike behind, which is one big clue that this bottom can hold for longer than the bears anticipate.

From the  September 2018 peak to the December bottom we also have a pretty good looking zigzag at this time. Any zigzag can get completely retraced but that could now take all of January to accomplish.  A run back up to the 2800 price level, could happen as this rally still seems to have more power behind it. The key will be that on the intraday scale higher corrective lows keep forming.

This 2018 peak will need more work, as the September peak can turn into a wave 3 as well. The Gold/SP500 ratio is about as expensive as I have seen so there is nothing cheap about this market just yet. Today we are at a 2:1 ratio with the record being about 2.41:1.  The cheap Gold/SP500 ratio is about .75:1, so there is a long way to go before this SP500 becomes cheap again when we compared the SP500 to the price of gold.

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I have not been able to update as much as I would like and it may not get any better at this time. I have some serious issues I have to deal with which cannot be resolved this spring or even this summer, so my postings will be far less than what I would like to post.

 

 

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SP500 2000-2018 Review

The debate about what degree level we are in continues, as the majority of wave analysts all have different wave positions. The Elliott Wave Principle is not what you think you are seeing, but it’s what you visualize what the idealized pattern is supposed to look like. Every major wave analyst has 5th wave extensions when in fact wave 3 does most of extending in the stock markets. About 5 years ago I switched to looking at the markets from a Cycle degree perspective because I also tried GSC and SC degree for many years.

The 2000 peak is an Intermediate degree peak while the majority have the 2000 peak as a GSC peak or SC peak. An intermediate degree is a minimum of 4-degree levels lower than every major wave analysts has today. Most wave counts published today are nothing but a “Dog and Pony” show or a great “Smoke and Mirror” magic act. Elliott Wave is not about flipping numbers and letters around like we are flipping hamburgers, but it’s more like being a surgeon where you must think out any moves with great care.

Every number and letter also represents time,  so when I see switches being made between a GSC and SC degree wave count we can jump 50-100 years into the future without realizing it. Cycle degree is basically jumping back in time which puts any SC, GSC and Submillennium degree in our future. The 2000-2002 decline took about 30 months while the 2008 decline only took about 17 months. That’s a big difference and is mainly due to the type of corrective pattern we get.

Before we ever get there this market has to suffer through a bear market for a few years before a new major bull market will start. This may take until 2020 or after the US elections before the markets start to crank up again. Every major bull market peak for the next 100 years will terminate with a wave 3 position and since Cycle degree wave 3 is used, the next major peak will be wave 3 in SC degree.

Our present bearish phase can still last into the spring of 2019, after which we should see a rally in stocks that will convince the majority that the bull is back.

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SP500 E-Mini Intraday Update

This is the March 2019 contract where every trader has to move to sooner or later. Support has now failed as the Fed has threatened more rate hikes in 2019. I find this very strange at this time as many asset classes are already crashing and liquidity is draining the life-blood out of the economy. Nobody is lining up to borrow more money and gold is not going to soar to the moon. Gold sure didn’t like the rate hike, which I will update later this week. In the end the Fed has executed the perfect stock market bull trap. The majority all believe that just a simple 10% correction was coming, but they under estimating the size or degree of this impending correction. They won’t call it a correction much longer as every hope for support will get dashed.

I might add a few more of these intraday charts on this page as the days of seeing sets of 1-2 waves is going to come to an end. Wave 3 will come to an end and the degrees will start to get higher each time a run of 5 completes. This is a wave three extension in progress but heading down. In bull markets the entire wave structures are reversed.

Only 49% are bullish towards the SP500 Market Vane Report, which is not extreme just yet.  The Death Cross on the daily SP500 chart happened at the 2770 price level, with the Gold/SP500 ratio sitting at a perfect 2:1. It takes 2 gold Troy ounces to buy one unit of the SP500.

Besides all these negative indicators the commercial hedgers are still net short by a good amount.

It will take far more downside to get the commercials to change direction. Even then there is no guarantee that commercial hedgers will pile into long positions.

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SP500 Mini Intraday Update

A few days ago some analysts have declared that a bottom was in. They were very bullish but this chart would have to soar soon for the stock bulls to be in control.  I doubt anybody is in control right now but once this E-Mini SP500 chart breaks below the 2590 price level then we know that the bears are in control.  Those reporters that are still super bullish are going to find out the hard way which direction this market is going to head.

Commercial traders are net short, but not at any real extreme just yet.  There is a slim chance this 5 wave pattern I’m working, will finish by the end of this year. It may take until February or even March to clear up. We know that January can be a critical month but March has also produced some amazing reversals.  The Gold/Sp500 ratio is 2.13:1  which is still off the charts for being expensive.

Some asset classes are in a funk as some investors are still undecided.  It could take very little to get a herd into a panic.

 

 

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Mini SP500 Daily Chart Death Cross Update

 

With the wild moves going on in late trading this March 2019 contract charged up and then down again when the bears attacked again. This time the 50-day MA sliced across the 200-day MA which is the classic technical indicator called a Death Cross. I have a slew of Death Crosses forming and now we have another one. These Death Crosses forecast long-term declines and the Death Cross on a weekly chart is way down at the 2340 price level. My best bet is that any wave 3 decline could slice right through that price level with ease. This fast drop could have ended at my first wave 1-2 in Minute degree then I would only look for 1 more set in Minuette degree. I might need an electronic scanning microscope to see the smaller waves. If the wave three extends then even the 5th wave could extend so this bear party is not over by a long shot. Don’t blame President Trump for all the problems, as it was the Fed that took the alcohol away from the stock partygoers.

This is nothing new as I watched different Feds do the same thing twice before since the 2000 peaks. Since late January, we have 4 bottom support prices showing, and each one of them will get trashed, or rectraced. That would also confirm that from that February bottom up and down again was just part of a bear market rally.

All those misguided investors that just finished putting billions into the markets are now sitting on a Death Cross. Think of anything above the 200-day MA as a group of partygoers all standing on a porch and there are too many on the deck! When the deck legs buckle and snap, then it’s too late to do anything about it. Not too many people listen to a technical analyst, but investing blindly right before the Death Cross is strictly FOMO driven so who cares about some mythical Death Cross!

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SP500 Rally Death Cross Review

 

So far the stock rally has performed in the last part of November, but that doesn’t mean it can’t stop on a dime and reverse. So far the counter-rally was a little more dynamic than what I  expected but it will still fit as a bear market rally.  This year we have had about 5 bottoms at various price levels, and if the bigger bearish picture is real then there is no chance that any of these bottom prices will hold. Prices rarely ever hold for very long but a good wave count bottom can.

Sure we could see this move turn into a year-end bullish party and we have to wait and see if this becomes the case. The Gold/SP500 ratio is about 2.25:1 this morning which is still about as expensive that we can get.  One ounce of gold can only buy 2.25 units of the SP500, so we want that number to spread as stocks become cheaper. Just because they did get a bit cheaper doesn’t mean a bull market can keep it going.  Another super leg up is pretty hard for me to accept as nothing is oversold from my Cycle degree perspective.

 

 

I applied the 50-200-day MA lines to this daily chart when the 50-day MA is going to cross the 200-day MA, which they call a “Death Cross”. Investors should never ignore these crossings but I know most of them to do, as they are fundamental analysts first.  The 50-day MA can now supply resistance, so combine that with the “Death Cross”, we have a very bearish situation going into 2019.

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Mini SP500 2016-2018 Review

 

I’m sure the entire planet is trying to figure out how far or how deep this bear market will go. Most of the time markets will come to a grinding halt at some previous bull market support. In this case that would be the 2016 low. (2000-1800).

I will also keep my expanded pattern alive as it is already telling me that one day, all the markets that have this pattern will get retraced in another bull market, but it may take 10 years or more before a new record SP500 high will ever get recorded.

I have mentioned many times that all the President Trump market gains will burn up in a puff of electronic smoke.

From the 2016 bottom we had a 2-year run to complete a move in Intermediate degree, so when the market retraces back to those levels, they would have retraced an Intermediate degree move. Since it would end with a run of 5, I always have to cap it. If I see “any” 5th wave uncapped, then I know those wave counters don’t have a clue where they really are!

This would be the “A” wave in Primary degree and “A” waves are usually “Buy” signals, but they are not the starting waves of a new bull market.

Any “B” wave in Primary degree will also be very choppy, which will be the first clue that it’s just another bear market rally.

It may sound crazy that the SP500 will crash down to the 1800 price level, but we are dealing with a Cycle degree bear market, the likes we have not seen since the 2009 lows.

Tech companies inside the SP500 are imploding with Facebook, Apple, and Nvidia leading the way. This should not be a surprise to any serious market observer as this is starting to happen for the third time since the 2000 tech bubble. Three bull market peaks have blessed the smart market timer, but those party days are over, at least until after 2022.

Solar Cycle #25 should kick in so the younger investors will enjoy the power of the sun. In 2008 it was Solar Cycle #24 that kicked in and it supercharged the markets until January 2018.

The Gold/Sp500 ratio has changed little and is on the expensive side of 2.2:1.

Some say there is no place to hide from this turmoil, but we also “always” have a choice. Any investors that are getting close to retirement should be extra cautious, as my generation got hit hard, and escaping into cash would have at least saved some capital gains.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Update

 

Obviously, the bullish crowd sees the midterm elections as a positive thing, otherwise, the markets would have tanked far sooner. Wild bullish charts like this virtually look vertical on a daily chart, so a correction should be near. If the bigger trend is bearish then a complete retracement of the October bottom will happen. We also have the potential for an H&S top, which the SP500 is running up against. This is a classic textbook retracement move, but we have to see if it’s real!

This is the E-Mini SP500 COT report that shows the commercials having a bearish outlook, while the speculators are in a typical inverse position. Speculators or managed money always seem to get trapped as they are not the smart money crowd that media makes out to be.

 

On A different note, the pages read on this blog have exploded dramatically in the last 3 days, as over 6000 pages were view in a 24 hour period. I was set-back by these numbers but it may be just due to many people being off work and voting. It’s nice to see these numbers, but only time will tell if it’s not just a freaky one of a kind type of move.

I will not post on Remembrance Day for obvious reasons as I take that day very seriously.

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SP500 E-Mini 2000-2018 Review: Bear Market 3.0

 

 

I thought I would post this chart to show that there is also a huge wedge at play in the markets as well. Call it a reverse Megaphone if you, like but the recent bearish moves are up against a big support trend line that is going to fail. The 2007 peak was much smaller and sure added to the confusion, if 2007 was a “B” wave top or not. Join the Primary degree wave 3 with the Primary degree wave 5 (Jan 2018), The same parallel bottom trend line might give us some support, but eventually, that trend line should not hold as a Cycle degree bottom would trash the Primary degree trend lines. Analysts are worried about some 10% or 20% correction before the markets soar again. I’m sure they will argue for years trying to sort out the 3 tops in this SP500 chart.

It took me years, and not until I switched to Cycle degree wave analysts over 3 years ago did things start to make sense and fit better. I will never switch to a higher degree as that is happening by itself already!  We are lucky as every major dip only took about 5 years or so before new record highs were achieved again. Supercycle degree wave 3 could take much longer, to surpass our present peak of 2900.  We have 2 major price support levels that very few think can even happen, but more and more are joining the bearish trend.

Things have changed dramatically since the January 2018 peak as the moods have turned bearish. Just because the stock bears are shredding bullish investors accounts does not mean a contrarian buy signal has arrived. I will remain bearish, until at least a potential “A” wave in Primary degree arrives, and that may not happen for months. Commercial COT reports show that they are net short in most of the 5 indices that I cover. Until they start to build net long positions a real bottom is going to be hard to justify. Bear markets and crashes are just part of bigger bull market corrections just like the 1929 crash has demonstrated.

Since 2000 this will be the third crash I am attempting to count down and chances are it will be my last one. My goal is to get most of the indices down to a Cycle Degree wave 4 bottom, but after that, this blog may shut down.

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SP500 1980-2018 Bull Market Review

 

The 1980-1981 time period was a pivotal year of some major turnings. In 1980 the gold price peaked and then crashed, while stocks were ready to soar. Stocks soared for a 20-year run until the dot-com bust in 2000!  The year 2000 was just an Intermediate degree wave 3 peak and followed by the 4th wave bottom in Intermediate degree. The 2007 peak was weak, and just barely fit into wave 3 in Primary degree. During the 2008 crash, nothing was left unscathed, as all asset classes took a beating, except for the US dollar, as it exploded in price during that time. 2008 was only a Primary Degree deflationary crash, but since the January 2018 peak, we are facing a Cycle degree wave 4 crash that will make 2008 look like a garden party!

Any crash will not happen in one move but it will take 3 moves to complete and should be a longer decline than in 2002. It should also take longer for the Cycle degree crash to play out. This will be my third bear market crash I will be counting out, which looks like it contains an expanded pattern, that most wave analysts, ignore or they are not watching for any of these expanded flat patterns to occur.  The Intermediate degree “C” wave decline should stop at the “A” wave in Primary degree, which could see a move down to the previous 4th wave. This still could take the rest of the year to play out.

2022 will be the expected bottom, which could end up well short of breaking new record lows. Megaphone and single trend lines are pretty useless in forecasting a bottom, as the markets will always try to fool us, doing something nobody expects. 2008 was also a solar cycle #23 bottom which was the main power that sent the markets soaring again.  Most big market crashes happen 1-2 years before a solar cycle bottom, and the exact same situation will be setting up by 2022 when solar cycle #25 starts to crank up. If you don’t think that the sun affects the markets on earth then, I suggest you do a few hundred years of research as it has happened many times before.

1932 was another one of those times, which makes 2022 a 90-year bottom. (3, 30-year cycles) 30-year cycles dominate the commodities world, and to some extent, the stock markets also have this 30-year cycle. The world has been building into the most inflated world in financial history, much like the 1929 time period.

The demographic shift of the aging boomers is going to be the main reason why deflation, and not inflation will be the real threat. Since 2011, 10,000 boomers are retiring every day, which should continue until about 2030. It’s not rocket science, what these boomers have to do as they will not leave their money tied into stocks, and they will have to start selling off their investments. Boomers already took a beating in 2008 but were told to stay in it for the long term. Yah, Right! Who in their right mind can handle a 70% or 80% stock market crash?  Nobody can build a “bullet proof” investment portfolio, unless you can jump into cash, in a very short period of time. F.O.M.O keeps investors in the markets until they are so scared and ready to throw in the “white towel”, when the crash starts to get serious.

When that happens then chances are very good that the markets will turn and soar in another 8-13 year bull market, with 2029 being a potential Primary degree wave 3-4 correction.

 

 

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SP500 Record Top Update.

 

 

Stocks seem to find no real top as records are still being broken. Investing in at the top of the biggest bubble in all of financial history, is very popular.  Investors seem to ignore all the fundamentals with a “who cares” approach.

The biggest and worst advice we are getting is, “Stay in for the long run”. At every major top like 1929-2000,2007, 2018 they always coach you to stay invested for the long term. Tell that to the investors that got wiped out during the 2008 crash, or the 1987 crash.

Stay invested and keep buying the dips, as this market has a long way to go, is the general advice. Only the very inexperienced can do that, but for the millions of boomers retiring it would be financial suicide to stay invested. 10,000 boomers are retiring every day for the next 19 years, so where is all the money going to come from that will push the markets to the extreme? The world has a Titanic anchor of debt hung around their necks and they will get thrown over-board the first time the SS SP500 springs a leak!

The expanded pattern I show, is not just on one index but we can find it in the top 3-5 indices. This expanded pattern would just be a lead into the bigger “A” wave bottom in Primary degree, that is sure to come.  Every wave analysts would be screaming to get out if they new how deadly this pattern actually is. We will know only when it hits, as something will set the herd of investors into a panic.

The VIX tells us that much already, because commercial traders are about as bullish with the VIX as you can imagine, while the speculators are in another bear trap with the VIX. When it changes then expect some violent moves in the VIX as we have seen that happen many times before.

As long as all the expert wave analysts don’t see this expanded pattern their wave counts will get trashed. If all wave analysts don’t see this crash coming then what good is all that wave counting? They sure could not hit the 2009 bottom as that was screwed up as well.

 

 

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Mini SP500 Daily September Futures Update

 

This will be the last of the September index as all of them will be moved to the December 2018 contracts.  The markets are doing a good job of killing any bearish wave positions as they ride the choppy move to the upside. I will stick to my guns, and look at  this as the start of an expanded pattern. The stock bubble ended in January and I have that peak as a Cycle degree wave 3 peak.

There is no way of hitting the exact wave, but a fast retreat would be sign that this bull market has had enough. Investing at world record highs seems to be the popular thing to do. I see it as just plain greed when putting money at risk like this.  Over a 400% gain in a 9 year run is still not enough for investors, as I see nothing but a stock market bull trap being set-up.

Nothing new here as I am tracking another mania for the third time. Patterns like this can create very steep drops, as the investing crowd is going to panic once a few support prices get breached.

I filled in wave positions down to the Minuette degree level, as the “C” wave is a diagonal wave structure and is going against the bigger trend.

My wave position is only a Cycle degree top, as the majority are in SC and GSC degree wave counts already. 2018 is 89 years from the 1929 peak, but this time it’s just one degree lower than the 1929 crash was so it will be like 1929 and 2008 which should take 2-3 years to fully play out. 2022 is my target year, as years ending in 2 seem to have major reversals connected to them.

Massive deflation is the true threat, and we may see that by the FED, “resting” on rate hikes. Even when they drop rates again inflation will not be the driving factor, as printing money is not inflation. If the velocity of money picks up then gold will benifit by going up in price. Gold has already turned the corner last week with a low spike of about $1160.

All my work is from a Cycle degree perspective so all SC and GSC degree wave counts will not happen for decades far beyond my years, but which the new Generation-Z will live work and invest in.

The first of the Generation-Z was born in 2008, but I am checking that, as it would also cut off all kids born to the Millennial generation.

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Mini SP500 Daily Chart World Record High Review

 

We now have a secondary peak with this SP500 daily chart, but this is not the real high! There are expanded patterns that constantly catch us by surprise, if we are not actively looking for them.

Our wave counts will be so far off course when we do not suspect any expanded pattern to be in progress.  It’s also the biggest early indicator that stock markets are correcting with a Cycle degree flat, while gold is in a zigzag of the same degree. With the gold price crashing we know deflation is the issue, not inflation. The general markets will eventually act together or “hook-up” as all asset classes are going to deflate in price. During the 2008 crash gold, silver, gold stocks, oil and the general stock markets all crashed together for 8 intense months, while the US dollar index soared!

The exact same conditions in 2008 are present now, as the US dollar refuses to implode.  The US dollar bear market ended in 2008 with a zigzag crash, so it’s in a bullish phase that very few  USD watchers understand. It will be the huge corrections in this giant bull market that gold will perform moves that will shock us.

10,000 Boomers are retiring every day for the next 18 years so this will drain workers on a massive scale, and will no longer be producing in the economy. They will also be downsizing, and spend far less in the process. When they start to die, they will also be permanent sellers of real-estate and stock market holdings. Every western or developed country in the world has the same problem with Boomers disapearing on a massive scale.  After every market crash a fertility crash gets reported a few years later which economist don’t even look at. When the future looks bleak, then raising a family will be the furthest thing from their minds.

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SP500 Daily Chart Update!

 

The talking heads have declared the correction over as new record highs are being broken. The problem with that thinking is that there are expanded patterns that constantly fool us thinking that the bull market is still alive.  These types of moves can turn very violent in a short period of time, so I have deep respect for expanded patterns. This would just be the opening pattern to what will be a Cycle degree flat bear market.  Up to the first “A” wave in Primary degree a flat and a zigzag are different, but then the counter rally bull market “B” wave and the following Primary degree “C” wave can be exactly the same.

We sure have a rising wedge in progress and they are about as bearish of a signal as they come.  The entire bull market in stocks has worked with printing money on a unprecedented scale, and when the markets crash then this is asset destruction on a grand scale. It’s like throwing money in a fire and watching it burn, far less money will be around in the future as 100 trillion in world asset values could disappear in a puff of electronic smoke!

This is what happened in 1929 and the only difference now is that the 1929 crash was a Supercycle degree wave 2 crash. In 2018-2021 we will be one degree lower.  It will be worse than the 2008 recession, but not quite as bad as the 1930’s depression.

Gold will crush all the old myths about protecting you when things get crazy but this a false believe as gold will not protect you in deflationary times. Buying this market on any dip is also a crazy idea if you don’t know that a big crash is coming.

Just like the markets crashed down into 2008-2009 we are faced with the same situation 10-11 years after the 2007 peak. If we take 1929 and add the Fibonacci number 89 in years, we get 2018. 89 is only one year off from 3-30 year cycles.

This 30 year cycles works best in the gold market as for he stock market I have to calculated it a bit different, mostley from different times.

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Mini SP500 2000-2018 Review.

 

This market is still trying to break to new record highs, as this SP500 chart is just a few points away from establishing a new record high. All this has taken to long already so I have to explore the idea that an expanded pattern is forming in Intermediate degree. Once the main markets start to show a more ovious crash, then I expect gold to do much of the same. Gold finished a 30 year mania peak in 2011 that will not get repeated until 2041 when SC wave three should arrive.  The advantage of working in Cycle degree is that SC,GSC and Submillennium degree wave 3 are all ahead of us, as all others think we are in a GSC degree already. Flipping wave counts around like they are hamburgers  on a grill, is not what the EWP is all about. I don’t move any of my big wave positions around anymore, as from my perspective it’s more like a surgical procedure transplanting a heart!  Each move has output ramifications, attached to them, so we should be far more senstive when we flip Elliott Wave numbers around.

I don’t like the expression “wave counting” as from my perspective they are all “positions” of captured human emotions. Being out by just “ONE”  degree, will put us out by a mile or 61% or more.  An example would be 377 years, with one higher degree this would turn into 610 years long. One degree would throw us off a minimum of 144 years. My target for Submillennium degree wave 3 peak would be the year 2101!  That’s just for gold as the stock markets can be offset by many years.

WD Gann used the 60 year cycle a lot, but this 60 years, is just two 30 year cycles connected together. 3-30 year cycles is only 1 year off from the Fibonacci number 89, and I treat them as being the same.

The Death Cross, or the 200-day MA is at SP500 2300, but it will take more than that for the markets to complete any impending Death Cross. The world is siting on the most inflated markets in world history, and when they correct it will not be pretty.

At this time I’m just taking a best guess approach to the depth of an “A” wave in Primary degree, as it is still to early to make any better call.

 

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SP500 2000-2018 Review

Many smart analysts have compared ourpresent 2018 pattern to the 2000 peak pattern, and yes they look very similier. The valuations today are about twice as much today as when the dotcom mania of  2000 imploded.  Will it implode again? Of course it will, this hyped up, max leverage world is going to reverse and deflation is going to ravage this world which we have not seen in 100 years. Any asset class that is not secured or protected will take a hit as prices will start to crash.

This is going to be a Cycle degree wave 4 crash, just like gold and since part of a flat is the same as part of a zigzag, I can see the markets syncing up with gold later this year.

Gold and stocks may even rally together once we start on the “B” wave rally in Primary degree.  Then gold and stocks will dance together in a 1-2 year decline that could send the sp500 down to 750 and gold below $500. Sp500 below 1500 is the bare minimum and that just gets us into the previous 4th waves, not even near any bottom.

Gold should dip well below $800 and when this gold price stabilizes bit then the markets should not be too far behind gold. We could see a wild triangle rally in both SP500 and gold, which will seal their fates for the 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.  The whole world is invested sitting on top of Death Crosses, so it will be a big deflatioary crash that not to many investors think that can happen. Gold will always have 30 year cycles, so the markets will just weave in and out during the same time period.

Why such a big deflationary crash is coming, is due to the world wide fertility rate decline, which has been in full swing since the 1950’s. Birthrates also crash after each stock market crash so smaller and smaller generations numbers are being born. This has happened many times and most notable in 2010 when I read a fertility crash after a market crash.

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Mini SP500 Top And Death Cross Below!

 

If you have never heard about this “Death Cross” thing then I strongly recommend that you research it, to know what happens once a Death Cross has formed.

I want to know before any DC forms, not after. Sure this could keep rolling around the 50-day MA, but as soon as this market is set to turn down, then the 50-day will slice through the 200-day MA and an instant Death Cross will get formed.  I saw very quickly that this 50-200-day MA could enhance my Cycle degree forecasting and trading that I have incorporated it, as one of my official indicators that can be use in Cycle degree wave analysis. I’m working on about 5 indicators which is all you need to spot a crash before it happens.

I changed my wave position to an Intermediate degree 5 wave run, because we may get a Cycle degree zigzag in stocks as well. The odds are increasing every week and month that goes by. If any part of this decline starts on a fast descent, then we could also be looking at an Intermediate degree zigzag crash. There is also a high degree of correlation going on with the gold sectors as they all are ending up crashing together. This is going to be a deflationary crash that will make the 2008 crash look like a garden party.

The 2008 crash lasted about 8 months during it worst phase, now imagine the same thing, but lasting 1-2 years. If there are young Millennials out there looking to “invest” in their own home, then I strongly suggest to wait for three years. This insane real-estate market will show you a whole new landscape by the end of Cycle degree wave 4.

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SP500 Intraday Top Update!

As we can see the Sp500 made a quick reversal today which could hold.  All bear market rallies get retraced so I hope investors are reading this as a bearish rally. After all no new record highs have been recorded in the SP500 in 2018.  Any wave 2 rally in any degree is a bear market rally so this move should clear all 2018 lows. I cannot stress it enough times and that is. I am swamped with Death Crosses below present prices in just about everything except for the US dollar. Major metals as well, which means it’s all going down together! This setup feels just like the top of 2008 and the following gold crash down to $700. This all spells extreme deflation is coming our way and any asset class that’s not safe and secure will suffer devastating price declines. The inflation party is over as most world currencies are imploding making the USD the place to be.

Real-estate prices should take a major hit in the next three years leaving people trapped in their homes as the price of their homes crash. Just checking the futures lumber prices, they have been on a crash course, which the ETF (CUT) also confirms. International Forest Products (IFP) a company that I worked for most of my working years also has a crashing stock price.

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SP500 Daily Chart: Death Cross Watch!

This Sp500 rally has now started to fit much better as a newer high has been reached. The last five waves are a diagonal set of 5 waves. Even looks like a triangle pattern.

In the gold market this exact pattern fits into modern wave count as a bullish move not a bear market rally. This  SP500 is on a small bear market rally and it will retrace itself.  All this chart has to do is make a sudden drop and the 50-day MA will slice the 200-day MA and then the market investors are sitting on a Death Cross. Gold is doing the same thing so a huge part of all assets are going to see price crashes along with stocks.

Fundamentals do not work at the extremes and if your not a contrarian in this business then you become the victim. Do you want to be the victim when the stock bulls start falling from the sky?  The EWP is always contrarian and if you have the same wave count as the stock bulls mode suggests then our wave counts are totally wrong. Every wave counter gets caught in a trap this way, and I use their wave counts as something not to do.  When a wave count is wrong you can always bet against it! From a Cycle degree perspective, all internet wave counters are counting all the “bad” wave counts for me. They save me a lot of work, thank god! 🙂

Apple may have topped and the same with Netflix, a few more need to topple as the falling “elephants” will crush any bulls that remains standing.

In Cycle degree the SP500 match gold very well, the only difference is they are a bit out of sync but gold and the SP500 could crash the same by the time the end of  Cycle degree wave 4. Won’t that surprise the gold bulls!

My intraday wave counts are going to suffer, as I’m not a day trader and never will be. I’m sure the stock markets crash will coincide with gold’s $800 bottom so I could even pick up the count when that happens.  It is far more important to watch the gold market and the anticipated swings in gold are going to be wild.

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SP500 Intraday Chart: Keeping The Bulls Trapped!

The large chart size is to big to handle in my editor and I may have to go back to smaller sized charts. The SP500 is charging along and wants to keep going. The problem is that since the start of this rally just after April Fool’s is all choppy and distorted. What else is new?  When they are choppy like this with only a few small 5 wave runs, then It looks like the trend is going against  the bigger trend. It’s also telling me that we are in a bear market rally, in intraday style. I will repeat my meaning of a bear market rally and it applies to the intraday charts as well.

A bear market rally must retrace it’s entire move, back to and below the point of origin. In this case it would be below the April Fool’s Day of at least 2550. Talk about getting fooled by some date way back in April 2018!   😯 All this slow summer action is allowing the 50-day MA to get closer and closer in slicing the 200-day MA in half.  It’s not that far away and when this happens we end up with a Death Cross (DC).  If you don’t know how to short trade and are strictly an investor then be prepared for a summer crash into the fall. This is not some silly correction we are dealing with, but just a good old fasioned meltdow. It may be a slow meltdown, but this market could see a 70% crash, erasing trillions of dollars in just one year. This is all money destruction and money destruction is deflationary. When all stocks deflate do you think gold is going to inflate in price? In 2008 everything imploded including commodities, so I see a similar setup happening now.

Vertully every commodity I cover is sitting on a Death Cross and I’m sure all stocks also will have Death Crosses waiting for investors. Mr. Bear, the butcher of wall street bulls, is sharpening his knife as he is going to have to do alot of slicing and dicing to get the best choices for a fall barbecue.  I have tons of stuff to post but I will be reducing intraday posts as each little waves do not need to get confirm. For stocks the only thing that matters is when we get close to an “A” wave in Primary degree. “A” waves are buy signals, like oil was in the 2008 crash.

The wave counts you see on the internet, with all that intricate detail come from folks that have nothing better to do, and chances are they have no money at risk and are not active traders. It is really sad what the EWP has turned into as they keep posting garbage wave counts that break every rule in the wave principle.  If all this intricate wave counting can not produce a very good real money trade setup, or spot an impending Gold crash, then that wave count should be instantly trashed.  The action will be in gold and gold stocks, so I will spend more time on them.

 

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SP500 Bull Market Or Bear Rally?

Getting tired of this so called “bull market” yet?  This market has been keeping us confused as to what direction it really wants to go. Price is never going to tell us anything useful  becuase if it did, every average Joe and Jane investor would have been buying everything in sight at the 2009 bottom.

Many think this is a bull market because its still  going up in price. The sad fact remains is that there are always bear market rallies at every degree level. If the experts don’t know the diffrenece with a Minor degree counter rally, then they sure are not going to know when a  Primary degree bear market rally is in progress.

The rally for the last 2 months has been frusturating to say the least, but what stands out is that this rally is going against the bigger trend.  I just had to draw in the wedge which is another very useful indicator when used at the right time.  A potential “C” wave bullish phase could be finishing off, so investors are going to find out the hard way about the effects of a bear market rally once it resumes its bigger trend.

There is always a chance one more dash to the upside will happen, but I think this market is running on fumes. The 2550 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding, as any wave 3 declince will just rip through that support range with ease. To confirm any Minor degree run be it up or down, this wave two peak needs 5 waves down in Minute degree to help us identify the location we think we are in.

Not until we get another push to the downside, investors will remain oblivious to the depth of this impending bear market.  If we don’t suspect that a Cycle degree correction is coming then all support forecasts will be useless to say the least. We have to be open to the fact that any opening zigzag requires a 5-3-5 run so we have a long way to go. Another 4 months or so will get us to a potential bottom by September or October. Any counter rally at that time will also produce another fake bull market.  It may seem a bit long in this counter rally but I have no doubt that this could all pick up in speed in a dramatic fashion.

As each stage happens then they all help in pointing us to where we are in the bigger picture. Talking about any move early is the key because after it happens, its pretty useless information. Fears of a depression will be in the news but markets do the opposite of fundamentals like they did in March of 2009.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update

There is a little over 1 week left in the June contracts, after which it all moves to the September contract months.  This is the first chart for September and all the others will also follow. Since the April bottom the SP500 has had a bullish trend, but the shape of this trend sure looks diagonal in nature, which usally means the trend is going “against” the larger trend.  For now I will keep working a potential wave two rally which is starting to come up to some strong resistance levels. 2815 is not too far away which can get hit in a mini flash move to the upside.

That may be wishfull thinking as this is all taking too long to play out. The big stocks inside the SP500 are keeping it all going as some of the “FANG” stocks seemed to be doing the heavy lifting.  The big short bets against Tesla have been unsuccesful at this time. In the short term the SP500 can keep on rolling along.  Overall stocks have been ignoring all the fundamantal news as they just don’t care. If some “bad” news comes out and the markets don’t like it then we know we are over on the big bearish side already.

The VIX may also still have to hit $12 so that also can keep this bullish mood alive.  It may take a drop well below the 2540 price level before the investing herd wakes up to a potential bear market.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

While a few of the other indices have scored new record highs, the DJIA and SP500 have been lagging, It’s not that I’m looking for the SP500 to catch up, but if the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 correct the SP500 would also correct. Since April the SP500 has been in choppy rise that has little to do with an impulse, but it can still work as a “C” wave bullish  move.  Short term I’m not happy with any wave count I might come up with in the indices, so I don’t fill out all the little waves as the bigger degree level is more important.

Since February this bullish phase is starting to last longer than what I would expect out of a minor degree move, but that is what we have to deal with.  The VIX has also crushed to new lows with  some analsyts being so bullish on stocks they sound like the VIX is going to zero.  All this could still carry on until the March peak has been exceeded. When it ends all support will break down, but investors just love to buy high and then sell lower in a panic to get out. Buyers keep coming out of the woodwork, and investing into the peak of  world record high stock markets. FOMO is the big reason but being bullish when the planet is bullish will just give us the same results as the majority get.

A short term bearish move is not enough for a Cycle degree correction to be completed, and markets never stay at “Permanent highs”. Sooner or later the BS, (Bullish Sentiment) will hit the fan as bears always attack from above and it usually comes as a surprise.  Bull markets are the breeding grounds for bear markets, so I see it as just a matter of time before  any bullish phase is finishing.

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Mini Sp500 Intraday Update

The markets took a dip this morning but that does not insure anything at this time. I have different wave positions in most of the big indices I cover, so I have to practice a bit of cosmetic wave counting for the short term. I only have to keep going back to the January 2018 peak as at this time it could be pretty secure with a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. The patterns are ugly by any streach of the imagination, but they also have a tendency to smooth out over time.  We still need for this market to retrace “All” 2018 bottom support prices as that is what it will take to help us to decide if we are over into the bigger correction.

A simple little 20% correction will not do it folks. At a minimum the 1800 price level must get retraced, wiping out the entire 5th wave bullish phase in Intermedetae degree. Even then 1800 may only give us temporary support, so buying on the dips will still be far too early. Not until we reach any Primary degree “A” wave can we play a bullish phase, and even then you don’t want to make any big aggressive bullish moves at that time.

As long as the mass media talks about, “buying” the dips it tells me that they have no clue, to the size of this bear market to come.

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SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

So far this phase of the stock market has done nothing by soar in one direction and then move right back down again. Investors are having difficulty in finding a lasting trend. From the April low we could still be in a diagonal ‘C” wave rally. From the April peak, the SP500 crashed again but added a 3 wave zigzag move to a lower low.  This little 3 wave structure doesn’t fit unless it is part of an expanded pattern. If that is the case then this market could crash to the May lows, after which another shocking rally could soar past the March high.

I would have little room to spare if the next move happens, but final ending diagonal 5th waves can produce moves that will surprise many of us. There is nothing here that indicates that a bull market correction is already over. Any Cycle degree correction needs much more time and depth, before a new bull market will be ready to be unleashed.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

The gyrations continue as this market is having difficulty in making up its mind in which direction it wants to go. Right now the markets see no gloom and doom as the VIX resumes its downward march.  I had this wave count once before, but now I will bring it back even if it is just temporary. It’s a diagonal 5 wave run, which is not finished yet, but a correction is due. We are near  to completing a small 5 wave run, leading into an “A” wave peak.

In the short term bullish action would have us believe that the bull market is still on.  I could be as some of these patterns are starting to fit into an ending diagonal.  So for the short term, there are still too many different options which have to be reduced or eliminated.  Sure fundamental news gets reported but that is a 24/7 on going event.  There is no way we can pick out all the different fundamental news stories, that made the SP500 go up and then fall just as fast. Fundamentals in the world, is just “white noise” like us older folks used to get from B&W TV stations before they went off air. It’s the volume of the white noise that is important, not the specific noise. Even the DJIA is getting close to looking like the SP500, while the Russell 2000 and the Midcaps are battling for a potential triple top.

This could  drag on until the end of the month, but if it breaks, and it’s a bearish dip, then no short term price support will hold.

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Mini SP500 Gyrations Review

The short term trend seems to be down as lower highs are still the main theme. I will stick to my wave 2 top in Minor degree at this time with this bearish mood now in its 4th month. Four months without any gains must be testing the patience of investors as they think this market is still going to the moon. The stock bulls are going to get slaughtered, so prepare your fridge for some fattened bull steaks, as the bears are sharpening their claws and will slice and dice every bull they attack! Nice bunch of bears we got here, as they will show no mercy until all the stock bulls shut up!

At least the January peak is still out in the open which helps as this is where the countdown begins. What a Cycle degree 4th wave correction will look like, is uncertain at this time, but a recent KOL posting has shown us a big inverted zigzag which can happen with the DOW. I favor a Cycle degree flat, but this count puts the “A” wave in Intermediate degree down and into the future.

I will be doing a bit of cosmetic wave counting, as in the beginning of any trend can be very fuzzy. Sooner or later the new trend will show itself to a greater crowd and that is when mini panics take place. The bigger the crowd the bigger the panics will be. A straight down crash like 1987 is unlikely as now there are limits to many of these contracts, which is supposed to limit the damage that can happen.

Increased volatility is a sign that a trend reversal is in play, so the volatility will not die down until any bearish trend reverses, and the bulls take back control.  I have at least 3 different stock indices patterns to deal with so this takes time to sort out. “Cosmetic” wave counting only last for a short time, but wave counters have been practicing “Cosmetic” wave counting for decades. They have been getting away with it, because very few people understand the EWP!

No doubt about it, I was a cosmetic counter as I was stuck in GSC degree which was very unsatisfactory work. The amount of bull markets that have been missed by professional wave analysts is staggering, but luckily people have short attention spans and cosmetic wave counting will continue to flourish. I’m a “structural’  wave analysts, which means I always go “back” in time to make sure the beginning structure is correct. Going back to 1929 and going over the entire Cycle degree impulse many thousands of times is too much like hard work. It gave me much needed discipline in my wave counting and I will always keep doing it when Minor degree waves don’t act like they are supposed to.   The hunt for the “missing” 1-2 Primary degree wave count, has largely been ignored, but it is the key that unlocks the wave counts in the present.

At this time I have recorded about 27 wave three Cycle degree peaks which nobody on the internet is even doing. Technically, if all my work was moved up by only “one” degree,  I would have 27 Supercycle degree wave 3 peaks. Since 2000 not a single wave structure of SC degree has ever formed, as very specific sequences “must”  form in order to be past any Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. Many idealized SC and GSC degree patterns have already been posted years ago, but they will be collecting electronic dust until at least 2029!

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