The DOW is being pushed to the limits of what wave 2 rallies can do so only a clear push to new record highs will kill it. Otherwise, it is primed to fall and start to close 2 of the big caps open below present prices.
Besides being an unlucky Friday 13th, we also have a full moon today which can be a turning signal as well. With 2 open gaps that makes it about 4 bearish signals that I use, which most analysts ignore as they are to busy chasing fundamentals which change as fast as the wind.
Any drop in the DOW will bring out the bearish news and we never know from what country it will come from.
Record high prices don’t reflect that a recession is here already, even though we can see the world economies are slowing down.
It’s a “Sit and Wait” situation at this time, but next week should tell us more.
The Gold/Dow ratio is still very expensive as it was 18.3 today from the ratio of 21:1, we have a long way to go before the DOW becomes cheap again at 7.19 where it only takes 7.19 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DOW.
I have gone over the entire bull market since the 2009 bottom and I may have missed an extension. Also since the December 2018 bottom, a set of 5 waves developed also containing an expanded pattern after which we had a July peak after which the DOW started another bearish move.
Expanded patterns show in 4th wave corrections frequently, so that also fits better. If our present move is a wave 2, then there should be no more new record highs. Many more gaps show up with this chart so anyone of them can get closed in the next few months or so.
This is all coming down to the wire but all it takes is the wrong kind of news and the DOW will make another leg down.
After a month of sideways movement, the E-Mini is back at the resistance of about 26,400 with a quadruple top. A huge breakout to the upside would kill this wave count off pretty quick, as we also have possible double zigzag.
The short version is that during the month of August, wave 3-4 may just be finishing. We wouldn’t know that until the August price support crumbles and the majority of analysts start to freak out.
At this scale, the moving averages bounce around a lot so they are not that reliable as they criss-cross each other.
The new moon is this Friday and we are on the last days of the month so that combination can always raise a bit of stock market turmoil.
My last Gold/Dow ratio recorded was July, 11 at 19.3 with today recording a ratio of 17. The DOW got cheaper but not by all that much. A ratio of 8:1 is dirt cheap but that will need constant checking when we think we are getting close.
Gold is acting a bit bearish today so a correction could be just around the corner.
Last week the DOW hit resistance about 3 times after which the investors started to panic again. I believe this could be a wave 1-2 in Minor degree, but the DOW needs to decline much further to show us that the stock bears are in control.
Friday ended with a sharp spike to the downside but we will see if that spike holds any serious price level.
We also finished a golden cross but it may mean nothing as a death cross could follow just as fast.
For all of August, the DOW E-Mini has been dancing around in both directions. Good Luck trying to fit this into a bullish impulse even though a set of 5 waves seems to be finishing.
Yes the DOW has just created a golden cross, but it sure can head back down and execute a death cross! From what I see I have to remain bearish as 2 H&S patterns have also formed.
A strong bullish move would shred the resistance line to the upside. On the bearish side, we eventually would have to see new records lows.
Give it until the end of the month for a new bearish trend to show itself with a wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree still to complete.
Another leg down in the DOW sure could send gold soaring in another leg up. In a sic way the DOW could see 5 waves down in Minor degree while gold might get 5 waves up in Minor degree.
If we were in an Intermediate degree decline, then I think this sideways pattern would take much longer to play out.
Once the DOW crashes below the August 6th low then we will know for sure that this August rally was just another bear market rally. Yes, the decline started out very choppy but they can also smooth out as the trend matures. 21,600 could bring us support but that number may mean nothing once fear starts spreading far and wide.
Not enough traffic has moved to the December time period so this is still the September contract. This is the 90-minute intraday chart, which could be showing a 4th wave rally for this month.
In the last few days, the DJIA plunged about 1000 points before it started to recover. Markets can move month to month so this bearish phase my turn by the end of September.
I will not repeat the fundamental jargon that 1000 others are doing. Nobody knows “What News” really cause the markets to head up or down and it’s impossible for the same news to happen for us to take advantage of it. Did the bearish news in late 2008 get you in a panic to get out or did all the bearish news tell you to load up?
The VIX sure has exploded but I think the VIX could still go above 40. The arrival of solar cycle 25 is the deciding factor as solar cycle 25 could produce 5 waves up in Primary degree.
Each index that I cover has differences in the wave patterns which does make it much more difficult to find a good wave count. This DJIA chart top has rolled over a bit before it went south with “Gusto”.
One little dip is not going to cut it when a Cycle degree top is involved. Besides that solar cycle, 24 is still alive and well until solar cycle 25 starts to make a strong showing. A few sunspots belonging to solar cycle 25 have already been recorded but we need a good 50/50 mix before solar cycle 24 is completely dead!
Sunspot activity was dead last month and it could still last all of 2020 or early 2021. Once this solar cycle 25 starts to crank-up then there is no chance that I can stay bearish. The sun is the “Bull Killer” and the “Bear Killer, as the 2000 peak and 2009 bottom clearly demonstrated.
All hell can break loose a year or so from a solar cycle bottom like 2008 and now we are heading into the same situation except its one degree larger of a decline.
The younger investors can take advantage of “Sun Power 25” but you have to watch it and build up trust with our sun and its cycles.
At this time the DOW has topped July 16 at the 27,396 price level. Even though many are looking for a major top, this market does a good job of aggravating the stock bears as it tries to keep pushing higher. We need more evidence that a top is in and by that, I mean another run to the downside would help with that.
There is a little line down at the 14,000 price level but don’t take that as some magical support for another huge bull market as 14,000 is just the minimum I would like to see the DOW hit for a Cycle degree low.
It could take until spring of 2021 as the elections could change the political landscape dramatically. Some may call this the election cycle and politicians do have an impact on the markets. We are in a world where a single “Tweet” could take down a country and false news dominates.
Millions of investors that have pushed the DOW vertically all have smart connections or advisors and so far the majority see no problem in the trade war, oil war, hyped-up climate change, and a host of other fears.
In short, stock investors don’t give a shit about fundamentals as long as the market keeps going up! Oh but wait, when the markets start to decline, then all the bearish news will matter and it will become front-page news again.
2011 is when gold imploded and when stock indices were ready to crank up again. Much of the DOW run has been choppy but this is what 5th waves do. When I post review chances are good I have changed a wave position or two.
In this case, I extended the 5th wave in Intermediate degree. The end result will be the same as any potential type of a Cycle degree correction can still come.
By the looks of it, the DOW has broken the 27,000 price level and established a new record high. I think the DOW is struggling to maintain upward speed but it can keep us guessing as to “When” a reversal might come.
I cheated at our present top as I left one 5th wave uncapped, but only because I had no more room on the chart. Gold still seems to be in a correction but when stocks decline, and investors start running to a safe-haven asset then that is understandable. Solar Cycle 24 still has the power to disrupt this bullish phase, within the next couple of years.
The DJIA also crashed with gold so any rush to a safe-haven sure looks like it’s not working this morning. The only question is how deep this can go during the month of July. A bigger bearish phase should slice my support line and eventually the 26,460 price level as well.
The mainstream analysts called for DOW 27,000 after which it crashed. Now the experts will give us all sorts of forecasts how deep this “Correction” is going to go. If we have a Cycle degree wave 3 top then this requires a Primary degree correction down to Minor degree.
3-degree levels above Cycle degree and 3-degree levels below Cycle degree have always been my goals.
I treat solar cycles like an emotional fundamental as the entire world seems like it’s in a climate emergency! In reality, the markets don’t give a shit about climate change as we have had a bull market since early 2009! Has the climate changed in 10 years?
Until solar cycle 24 ends and solar cycle 25 starts I will remain bearish but try and catch any larger reversals when possible.
The E-Mini Dow hit a major peak last Friday and has now started a bearish move. The DJIA peaked about 26,922 just short of the 27,000 that many analysts were calling for.
The problem is that they never can tell how deep any correction will go until its too late.
For the rest of this month, we should know if a big top is in but I start a count-down anyways. If the big party is over then the correction that is coming will be much bigger than most are expecting. If we are at a Cycle degree peak then any bear market will just be a correction, but it will be a Cycle degree correction.
I could be early again but gold has also turned today. Most of the month of June gold and the E-Mini moved up together, so I have to question the stability or the life span of our present gold run as well.
To automatically assume that gold stocks will soar if the markets go for a mini-crash is wrong. When markets turn bearish then investors can sell anything and everything just to save their asses (assets) from a complete loss, throwing out gold stock ETFs as well. Instead, many analysts are calling for a FOMO inspired melt-up in stocks!
The solar cycle 24 bottom is ahead of us, close to the late 2020 time period and until solar cycle 25 starts, stocks can still act very bearish.
All indices I cover has now moved into the September month. This market sure seems like it doesn’t want to quit until a new record high is established.
With this DOW an expanded pattern started to form back in May 2019 when the impulse started to fall apart. At the June’s bottom, the Nasdaq and the SP500 created a perfect H&S while this DOW rolled over and created just a single bottom.
This futures chart is not manipulated and we can see big gaps when activity was still rather weak. You can bet that investors are waiting for some report or announcement but that happens 24/7. They are all hoping that the trade war will end, so any bad news could send the markets reeling.
If this is another last hurrah then this market could make a radical jump even from this level. What many do not see is the huge H&S top just about 1-year-old. That can be a huge resistance factor even if the DOW charges up to 27,000.
The Gold/Dow ratio has not changed all that much and is sitting at 19:1, Expensive is about 21:1 so not until this 19:1 ratio gets chopped down in size can I turn super bullish again.
Now that the markets are soaring does it mean the bull market is back? This move for June is not natural because there are only very small corrections. I’m sure the bears have been horned by the stock bulls but is it time for this trend to reverse?
The May decline fits best as a diagonal with a 7-wave count. Any wave 2 rally will find stiff resistance at the previous 4th wave top and in this case, I have 3 previous 4th waves that this present wave 2 has touched.
Sure we can go higher but then a higher degree may also be involved. I changed the location of my Minor degree run and we should know by the end of next week or so.
Another set of 5 waves down in Minute degree would have to happen and nothing short of wave 2 retracement, would be acceptable.
The Gold/Djia ratio got better, but it’s still far too expensive presently at 19:1. Cheap would be closer to 8:1.
For just about 3 days now the markets have soared. This is not a natural move as it’s also near vertical, suggesting that many buy stops got hit combined with the “Fear Of Missing Out”, rush.
The Dow did come back well into the previous second wave but it can’t surpass it. We would have to look for another zigzag type of a decline which would also produce a newer record low.
The Gold/Dow ratio changed but it didn’t make me jump up and down and scream “Buy”, as it’s only at 19:1 this morning.
I’m sure it will now take the rest of the week or longer before this clears up a bit and a complete retracement would have to take place if this was just another bear market rally.
The DOW and the SP500 are a bit the same but the Nasdaq looks more like an impulse.
So far this market is still going in the direction I was anticipating but we could be in another correction. At 26,050 we are running into previous 4th wave highs, that could act like a brick wall.
Blasting past resistance sure would help to keep my bottom 4th wave count alive a little bit longer. For now, it looks like a diagonal run is forming as this wave 3 looks like another zigzag to me at this intraday scale.
Every 5 waves in the zigzag alternates in quality, one set (A5) can be smooth without any visible waves, while the second 5 wave set (B5), has more obvious subdivisions.
If the bigger bullish picture is alive then this run could last the rest of May, but if this run is just a short term bear market rally, then we would be lucky to last into next week.
The moving averages offer no special insight at this time but the DOW came to a halt at the 50-Day MA line.
Of course, gold reacted to the bullish markets by crashing.
Yesterday the DOW E-Mini hit a bottom and then started to rally again. This is a 45-minute chart but I also review the daily chart at the same time.
The possibility of a bigger counter rally is real if we just finished another expanded flat in Minor degree.
We also had an intraday double bottom at the 25,222 price level and we should know shortly if this is going to hold. At the 26,000 price level, we would start to run into resistance, but if the DOW screams past the previous 4th wave top, then there would be a good chance of the DOW to head back up to the 27,000 price level.
That would be a violent bullish move, as all the “Protective Buy Stop” orders are above our present prices. This trade war is now the largest in US history, and it remains to be seen how effective it will become.
The April peak was well short of a new record high, and it had a funny pattern I didn’t like as well. Those two things can always spark a surprise bullish move.
This is a 30-min intraday chart of the DOW and it looks like the bearish trend is continuing after the April top. The DOW top did not go to new record highs but ended up falling well short. For now, a slightly truncated or shortened 5th wave will have to do, until this 5 wave sequence has all played out.
I started using a Minor degree run which can be adjusted later on as reviews become necessary. Any Cycle degree top would need at least one “A” wave in Primary degree for part one of a Cycle degree correction.
I’m sure there are daily trading limits with most of these indicies, because if there were no limits many of these plunges would be far deeper and last longer much longer.
We are 90 years from the 1929 crash which makes it 3, 30-year cycles that have completed. Except for some unexpected counter rallies this bearish phase could last for all of May.
The SP500 E-Mini has just pushed to another new high for the month of January 2019. Investors and analysts are bullish while a big group is bearish as hell. My Market Vane report is ending but this week there was only 50% bulls present which I don’t see as extreme. A 50/50 reading is not extreme enough to help determine any potential great move still to come.
I see this entire January run as a bearish rally but once the government clears up the economic backlogs we don’t have any COT reports to help us. I do have the Gold/Ratios which never shut down but are always active. The Gold/Sp500 ratio was 2.03:1 this morning which it has been in a tight range since May 2018 which had the exact same reading. This expensive ratio doesn’t make me jump up and down expecting another huge bullish phase to come. Cheap is a .75:1 ratio which means we still have a long way to go before stocks become very cheap again.
The DJIA has about the same wave pattern but looks like it has peaked already. This top may not hold as Friday’s can bring some very unexpected surprises which the markets may or may not like.
The DJIA is a bit cheaper when we use gold as a measuring stick, but it is still pushing the extremes at 18.77:1 this morning. 21:1 is the record to beat which happen in August of 2018.
We are at the end of a month and this bullish phase could be just the public stuffing or topping up their contributions for the 2018 tax year.
Continue reading “DJIA And SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update”
The markets keep pushing higher, chopping up all the bears into hamburger meat in the process. The DJIA has already gone sideways long enough to where it has broken the bigger trend line that started in 2018. I’m showing a wedge which some even call a bullish flag. I see a wedge at this time but the DJIA can keep pushing north, but it can also suddenly reverse in a surprise bearish mood swing. Analysts will always find a reason why any asset class goes up and down but can we invest or trade with any single fundamental opinion.
Without a doubt, some analysts are very bullish when the markets are pointing up, and they become very bearish when the markets are pointing down. Only a few have the courage to be bullish when the markets make a big dip like in December of 2018. Most investors didn’t have a clue a market drop was coming in October 2018. To say that Apple didn’t see the slowdown coming is not being truthful as Tim Cook was the expert on China long before Steve Jobs passed away. Apple has a position in the DOW, so chances are slim that Apple will soar when the DJIA reverses its bullish trend.
The Gold/DJIA ratio and the Gold/Apple ratio give us a clue when an asset class becomes very expensive or cheap.
The record Gold/DJIA ratio to beat is 21:1 which happened a long time ago in August of 2018! Today we sit at 18.40:1 which still makes the DJIA expensive. Cheap would be 7:1 but that could be a pipe dream if you think it’s happening now.
I think options are due this Friday which can always cause some unwanted turmoil as well, and we will find out how committed the stock bulls really are. Usually, funds enter in January for income tax and retirement funding, and when the flow stops, stocks can make a huge plunge. When the DJIA retraces the 21,500 price level then this rally will be confirmed that it was just a small bear market rally, in Minor degree. If any Minor degree rally can trap the bulls then any Primary degree bear market rally will trap many more.
Last night the DJIA has started to back off from a wild bullish run which has convinced many to jump back into this so-called bull market. Wednesday is also a good turning day during a week!
Since December 2018 this move may not be finished yet if a bigger bullish move is still in progress, but if the zigzag rally is real then that December bottom of 2018 will not hold. (21,500). This move can be just a small bear market rally, and the best way to confirm that is if we see the DJIA completely retrace this bullish move. This 2019 bullish move was a very fast move which is normal in a bear market rally but seldom can maintain the move in the long run.
This morning the Gold/DJIA ratio was 18.40:1 which is an improvement but still not cheap enough by a long shot. I figure that at about 14:1 this market may be cheap enough to sustain another bullish phase, but at this time we are not even close. I have a Gold/DJIA ratio that made the DJIA “Cheap” when compared to gold, which was about 7.19:1. One day in the future this 7.19:1 ratio could get beat again and if and when it does, I will turn extremely bullish.
With the shutdown no government COT reports have been issued so we only have Dec 20, 2018, as the last time the COT report has been published. At least the Gold/Ratios never shut down as they are always in effect.
Instead of a Santa rally, the markets gave the worst Chrismas performance ever. It broke some records. I look at this during the holidays and had a sneaky suspicion a counter rally may happen. Sure enough, the markets have roared back from the dead and made up of the price it lost last week. Nobody calls the December decline as deflation, but that is exactly what it is. The USD can now buy more stocks than what it could all year. Sure we can see some more upside but a good correction should happen as well. Right now, I bet we are in a Minute degree wave 4 rally that still may flop around before it resumes its bearish phase.
To confirm that this is just a mini bear market rally the DJIA has to retrace the entire move below the point of origin, which is wave 3 in Minute degree. The big bear is far from finished as we are coming off the biggest stock bubble/mania in financial history. This is my third bear market I have tracked in the last 18 years and each bear market will be different. We are not going to get anything like the 2002 bear market and it will be different than the 2007-2009 bear market. I searched the internet for most of December and there is not a single wave analyst out today has recognized a 2018 expanded top. One of the most important markets moves there are and the experts don’t see it.
Once the bigger bearish phase resumes we should start running into wave 3 and 4 in Minor degree after which we could be approaching the “A” wave bottom in Primary degree. Any Minor degree 4th wave can contain a triangle as a triangle always forces a move into one higher degree, sometimes 2 higher degree levels. When that happens I assure you I will turn bullish on stocks.
Oil has also reacted tonight and only time will tell if it has legs to move much higher on this trip. One good thing about watching the markets during night trading is that you know all other ETF related asset class will roar in early trading sessions.
I will not spend too much time on my postings but let the charts do more of the “Talking”. Yesterday the DJIA hit another bottom after which it rallied but also made a wild move that can only fit into a corrective move at this time. I may be on my last 3rd set of 1-2 waves so soon this process will start to show wave 3 labels. Wave 3 in Minor degree is the goal which could take into early 2019 to finish.
This rally should not go that high and if it does, I will have to adjust the wave positions as well. This bearish phase is far from over, but rallies can convince the talking heads that the decline is a done deal. It all depends on the big size of this market correction is going to be. We are in a Cycle degree bear market and what we have witnessed so far, is just a wake-up call for the non-believers.
Yes, in 2018 the markets achieved world record highs and this bear market will not be over until we have achieved world record “lows”. A big counter rally is coming but not just yet. It may take until late January or even February before this decline finishes.
In the last 3-4 days, the DJIA has been in a rally which I still consider as being a bear market rally. There still may be some upside to go but this stock rally should run out of steam this week. Chances are also good that the general decline may have to get adjusted as a diagonal wave structure, but it’s not critical at this time. Either way, I’m looking for 5 waves down in Minor degree which should finish at a Primary degree, “A” wave bottom. From an Elliott Wave perspective, large degree “A” wave bottoms are, “Buy” signals.
The Gold/DJIA ratio was about 20:1 which my database shows as still being extremely expensive to gold. It requires 20 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA which is a far cry away from the 7:1 ratio it was when the DJIA was cheap. That day will come again, but we may have a long way to go before the Gold/DJIA ratio becomes cheap. There are still too many stock bulls around when they scream, “Buy On The Dips”! We will get our dip, but there will be many more dips if this is a Cycle degree bear market.
Investors run from low prices in stocks, as they did at every major bottom since the 2000 peak. In the real world, shoppers rush to lower prices but they love to do the opposite in the markets. That would be the same as only buying high priced gasoline at your local pumps. When the markets start to point down again, then they are also selling when they are in a mini-panic situation. VTX is splitting up so the internal composition of the DJIA 30 will change. If it makes a major change to my wave counts remains to be seen, but most of the time I have noticed no change.
After the stock bears stopped for their Turkey dinners, they seemed to have resumed their decline. At this time my wave positions haven’t changed all that much but there will always be adjustments and fine-tuning along the way. It may take far more downside before the majority start to clue into the size or scope of the impending bear market.
When the small minority start to see the bearish scenario all at the same time then a mini panic usually occurs. Black Friday shopping and Black Friday stock market panics are not the same things! 🙂
I will keep this update fairly short, but most of the indices I cover have similar wave counts. Trillions of US dollars has evaporated (lost) in a puff of E-Smoke already, and I’m sure deeper losses are still to come this year. Money destruction is hardly ever associated with “deflation” but that is exactly what is happening. This is now the third episode of money destruction since the 2000 peaks. It’s far from over as the 2016 lows might give the markets some temporary support.
Any market rally that does not act like it’s in a real bull market, will just be another bearish rally. “All” bear market rallies retrace themselves eventually, and the size of these bear market rallies depends on the degree level we think we are in. Sorry, but any Cycle degree bear market is not going to end in just a few months, or even in a few years, as this could take until 2022 to play out!
This is a quick update and it may be the last one before I switch to the March 2019 contract. They run 3 months at a time but the volume is still a bit light in the March 2019 contract. Since Sunday night the DJIA has started to resume its decline after the Minute degree wave 2 completed. In this case, it is impossible to give any price support forecast, as you have to ask “Support for what”? The support that will make the DJIA soar to new extremes, or just temporary support that might last a few weeks or so?
If my 5 wave sequence is real then wave [i] support will never hold. Any bear market rally like this always retraces its entire bullish move, and I expect nothing less.
I checked the Gold/DJIA ratio this morning and it was one of the most expensive readings yet! It takes over 20 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DJIA, from a max reading of 17:1. Cheap would be closer to 7:1, but that will not happen any time soon.
Longer term I think the markets will crash at an “A” wave in Primary degree but that won’t happen until Minor degree waves 3-4-5 has fully played out. I would need another 3-4-5 wave as Minute degree also needs to play out.
There still hasn’t been an extension to speak of, but I’m sure it will show up one day. This type of 1-2, 1-2 wave count can be the setup for an extended run, but the last 5th wave could extend as well.
The 2018 January peak is the real peak and the third bull market peak since 2000. Each bear market since 2000 has been worse as each bear market bottom was also one degree higher.
This bear market is going to be much bigger than the 2007-2009 bear market was even though the markets may never break below 2009 lows. This Cycle degree bear market will be a bit longer than what 2008 was. The 1929 bear market only took 3 years, but this decline could take a total of 4 years. 2018-2022.
I can see it already when the talking heads are calling for DOW 5500, you can come back and I will have a DOW 34,000 forecast.
I looked at all the peaks of the markets that I cover and there is a good case that can be made that the expanded flat was just a diagonal wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree. Sooner or later the markets will head in the direction it wants, but it should not soar to new record highs. Bullish moves this fast have nothing to do with fundamentals as it is more likely that the “Fear Of Missing Out” and buy stops getting hit is the main cause.
With a new location of the Cycle degree peak Wave 3, we would be starting a new set of impulse waves as well. There is no Market Vane Report for the DJIA but they do have the SP500 and the Nasdaq. Those reports are not at any extreme, and matter of fact is one of the most boring reports I have seen. Even the previous Market Vane Report was starting to get boring. Extreme readings is what I’m looking for, and I didn’t see any at this time.
Most commercial hedger readings were net short but I suspect they added to their long positions in the last few days. I will not find out until Friday nights reports are published.
I’m still bearish long term but in the short term, the markets can still go up!
The DJIA finished on the upside last night, but this E-Mini contract sure reversed in a hurry. I can work an expanded flat for last Octobers bottom but at the same time, I also dropped my degree level down by one. The long run-up sure looks like a good set of 5 waves, so we also may have finished at an “A” wave in Minute degree. In other words, we might only be a 3d of the way through this potential bear market rally. Most of this market rally was just the “Buy” stops getting hit right up to a big a previous high. The DJIA also ended with another spike to the upside and if this is still a bear market rally, then the markets will go back to creating lower lows.
I will keep the postings short today until I get a chance to review all the COT reports that come out every Friday.
Two days ago this Mini DJIA chart ended with a nice long spike to the downside, and since then the markets have been in a rally. Is the correction over? Not by long shot folks as the world markets are in a tailspin. If we only had a single wild crash much like 1987, then I would turn bullish much sooner. The problem with thinking about 1987 is that the 1987 crash was just a “Minor” degree crash. This crash will be larger by 4-degree levels and has a good chance of producing a long drawn out bearish phase, which has not happened since the 1930-32 decline. 1987 was 31 years away, while the 1929 peak to 2018 is now 89 years. I have learned not to ignore the Fibonacci 89 years as that is 1 year short of the 30-year cycle. If I use 60, 90 or 120 years, just divide those numbers into 30-year sections which I use as my time forecasts into the future.
We can be out by a minimum of 61% (.618) In price and time, so I want to be very careful when I move a big degree around in the future. Imagine jumping 100’s of years forwards or backward in time by drawing a number or letter on a chart! Flipping numbers and letters around like flipping burgers is just like a warp jump going to Mars. It might take until Supercycle degree wave 3 to colonize Mars towards the 2041 time period. 2041 is only a “one” degree jump while many others are over 3-degree levels off.
At the intraday level, it’s a different ball game, but I look for all the Minor degree turns first. All the warnings investors got with this market top, they still think they can escape before the crowd. Some experts are still as bullish as we can get and they seemed to want to ignore the reversal of fundamentals that the Trade War is bringing.
End of the month has arrived and if this bearish market has legs, our present little price support will never last!
It looks like the markets are resuming their larger trend if we all knew what that large trend actually is. This is my third big stock market crash I am actively tracking and it is also the third peak that has to have a wave position to it that fits. Most markets I am tracking have an expanded pattern to them which ended October 3, 2018. The real top ended in January of 2018, just about 10 months ago. I know how much the wave counts will distort every outlook if we keep ignoring any expanded tops. The January peak is my third wave 3-4 peak since the market bubble top in 2000, and it should produce bear market conditions that will be worse than what the 2008 crash produced, but not as bad as the 1930’s depression. 1932 was my wave 2 in Supercycle degree, which will not end until we get closer to 2041.
In the short term, it could take until 2022 to play out, but we should also get another huge counter rally that not too many people will see coming, as they all think that the bull market has returned.
Gold reacted positively to this market decline, which may be a good sign for gold investors, but a “run” to safety is a human emotional move that will reverse just as fast because if stocks start to rally again, they will dump gold and gold stocks in a flash. The markets have never been tested with the world on “High Speed” data lines, where flash crashes could become normal. We have seen what high-speed computer trading has done in the past, and the FCC is powerless to do anything about it.
I have flexibility when counting down the start to this bear market, but sooner or later real fear will take-over then all the analytics in the world will not work, nor make any sense.
All those that are calling to, “Buy on the dips”, do not know how big this stock bubble actually is. This market should have a Primary degree counter rally coming, which is when I will become bullish again.
I think this market rally is just another bear rally, and it could be coming to an end this week. We had 3 moves that overlapped each other which are signs that the market is also going against the larger trend. We are going to run into many of these types of rallies, but we may not be at my anticipated wave 2 in Minor degree at this time. Yes, we did get a great spike to the downside, which can happen at any major bottom, but they also show up, when we only have a correction.
Today the DJIA made a vertical move to the upside, so that is looking good for a reversal as vertical moves like this cannot be maintained for very long. Hopefully, we will see more downside by the end of this week, and a new record low will certainly confirm it. Any support we presently do have is just a temporary rest stop.
You can bet that there are large amounts of stop-loss “Sell Orders” below present prices which can get triggered, like what happened between the 9th and 10th of October. If any dips get too large, certain safeguards can kick in so don’t expect a 1929 stock market crash to happen all in one day.