DJIA And SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update

 

The SP500 E-Mini has just pushed to another new high for the month of January 2019. Investors and analysts are bullish while a big group is bearish as hell. My Market Vane report is ending but this week there was only 50% bulls present which I don’t see as extreme. A 50/50 reading is not extreme enough to help determine any potential great move still to come.

I see this entire January run as a bearish rally but once the government clears up the economic backlogs we don’t have any COT reports to help us. I do have the Gold/Ratios which never shut down but are always active.  The Gold/Sp500 ratio was 2.03:1 this morning which it has been in a tight range since May 2018 which had the exact same reading.  This expensive ratio doesn’t make me jump up and down expecting another huge bullish phase to come. Cheap is a .75:1 ratio which means we still have a long way to go before stocks become very cheap again.

 

The DJIA has about the same wave pattern but looks like it has peaked already. This top may not hold as Friday’s can bring some very unexpected surprises which the markets may or may not like.

The DJIA is a bit cheaper when we use gold as a measuring stick, but it is still pushing the extremes at 18.77:1 this morning. 21:1 is the record to beat which happen in August of 2018.

We are at the end of a month and this bullish phase could be just the public stuffing or topping up their contributions for the 2018 tax year.

Continue reading “DJIA And SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update”

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Update

The markets keep pushing higher, chopping up all the bears into hamburger meat in the process. The DJIA has already gone sideways long enough to where it has broken the bigger trend line that started in 2018. I’m showing a wedge which some even call a bullish flag.  I see a wedge at this time but the DJIA can keep pushing north, but it can also suddenly reverse in a surprise bearish mood swing. Analysts will always find a reason why any asset class goes up and down but can we invest or trade with any single fundamental opinion.

Without a doubt, some analysts are very bullish when the markets are pointing up, and they become very bearish when the markets are pointing down. Only a few have the courage to be bullish when the markets make a big dip like in December of 2018. Most investors didn’t have a clue a market drop was coming in October 2018. To say that Apple didn’t see the slowdown coming is not being truthful as Tim Cook was the expert on China long before Steve Jobs passed away. Apple has a position in the DOW, so chances are slim that Apple will soar when the DJIA reverses its bullish trend.

The Gold/DJIA ratio and the Gold/Apple ratio give us a clue when an asset class becomes very expensive or cheap.

The record Gold/DJIA ratio to beat is 21:1 which happened a long time ago in August of 2018! Today we sit at 18.40:1 which still makes the DJIA expensive. Cheap would be 7:1 but that could be a pipe dream if you think it’s happening now.

I think options are due this Friday which can always cause some unwanted turmoil as well, and we will find out how committed the stock bulls really are. Usually, funds enter in January for income tax and retirement funding, and when the flow stops, stocks can make a huge plunge.  When the DJIA retraces the 21,500 price level then this rally will be confirmed that it was just a small bear market rally, in Minor degree. If any Minor degree rally can trap the bulls then any Primary degree bear market rally will trap many more.

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DJIA Intraday Correction Update.

Last night the DJIA has started to back off from a wild bullish run which has convinced many to jump back into this so-called bull market. Wednesday is also a good turning day during a week!

Since December 2018 this move may not be finished yet if a bigger bullish move is still in progress, but if the zigzag rally is real then that December bottom of 2018 will not hold. (21,500). This move can be just a small bear market rally, and the best way to confirm that is if we see the DJIA completely retrace this bullish move.  This 2019 bullish move was a very fast move which is normal in a bear market rally but seldom can maintain the move in the long run.

This morning the  Gold/DJIA ratio was 18.40:1 which is an improvement but still not cheap enough by a long shot. I figure that at about 14:1 this market may be cheap enough to sustain another bullish phase, but at this time we are not even close. I have a Gold/DJIA ratio that made the DJIA “Cheap” when compared to gold, which was about 7.19:1.  One day in the future this 7.19:1 ratio could get beat again and if and when it does, I will turn extremely bullish.

With the shutdown no government COT reports have been issued so we only have Dec 20, 2018, as the last time the COT report has been published. At least the Gold/Ratios never shut down as they are always in effect.

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DJIA, Just A Mini Bear Trap?

Instead of a Santa rally, the markets gave the worst Chrismas performance ever. It broke some records. I look at this during the holidays and had a sneaky suspicion a counter rally may happen. Sure enough, the markets have roared back from the dead and made up of the price it lost last week. Nobody calls the December decline as deflation, but that is exactly what it is. The USD can now buy more stocks than what it could all year.  Sure we can see some more upside but a good correction should happen as well.  Right now,  I bet we are in a Minute degree wave 4 rally that still may flop around before it resumes its bearish phase.

To confirm that this is just a mini bear market rally the DJIA  has to retrace the entire move below the point of origin, which is wave 3 in Minute degree.  The big bear is far from finished as we are coming off the biggest stock bubble/mania in financial history.  This is my third bear market I have tracked in the last 18 years and each bear market will be different. We are not going to get anything like the 2002 bear market and it will be different than the 2007-2009 bear market. I searched the internet for most of December and there is not a single wave analyst out today has recognized a 2018 expanded top.  One of the most important markets moves there are and the experts don’t see it.

Once the bigger bearish phase resumes we should start running into wave 3 and 4 in Minor degree after which we could be approaching the “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.  Any Minor degree 4th wave can contain a triangle as a triangle always forces a move into one higher degree, sometimes 2 higher degree levels. When that happens I assure you I will turn bullish on stocks.

Oil has also reacted tonight and only time will tell if it has legs to move much higher on this trip. One good thing about watching the markets during night trading is that you know all other ETF related asset class will roar in early trading sessions.

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DJIA Intraday Bear Market Update.

I will not spend too much time on my postings but let the charts do more of the “Talking”.  Yesterday the DJIA hit another bottom after which it rallied but also made a wild move that can only fit into a corrective move at this time.  I may be on my last 3rd set of 1-2 waves so soon this process will start to show wave 3 labels.  Wave 3 in Minor degree is the goal which could take into early 2019 to finish.

This rally should not go that high and if it does, I will have to adjust the wave positions as well. This bearish phase is  far from over, but rallies can convince the talking heads that the decline is a done deal. It all depends on the big size of this market correction is going to be. We are in a Cycle degree bear market and what we have witnessed so far, is just a wake-up call for the non-believers.

Yes, in 2018 the markets achieved world record highs and this bear market will not be over until we have achieved world record “lows”.  A big counter rally is coming but not just yet. It may take until late January or even February before this decline finishes.

 

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Mini DJIA Intraday Rally Update

 

In the last 3-4 days, the DJIA has been in a rally which I still consider as being a bear market rally. There still may be some upside to go but this stock rally should run out of steam this week. Chances are also good that the general decline may have to get adjusted as a diagonal wave structure, but it’s not critical at this time.  Either way, I’m looking for 5 waves down in Minor degree which should finish at a Primary degree, “A” wave bottom.  From an Elliott Wave perspective, large degree “A” wave bottoms are, “Buy” signals.

The Gold/DJIA ratio was about 20:1 which my database shows as still being extremely expensive to gold. It requires 20 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA which is a far cry away from the 7:1 ratio it was when the DJIA was cheap. That day will come again, but we may have a long way to go before the Gold/DJIA ratio becomes cheap. There are still too many stock bulls around when they scream, “Buy On The Dips”!  We will get our dip, but there will be many more dips if this is a Cycle degree bear market.

Investors run from low prices in stocks, as they did at every major bottom since the 2000 peak. In the real world, shoppers rush to lower prices but they love to do the opposite in the markets. That would be the same as only buying high priced gasoline at your local pumps.  When the markets start to point down again, then they are also selling when they are in a mini-panic situation. VTX is splitting up so the internal composition of the DJIA 30 will change. If it makes a major change to my wave counts remains to be seen, but most of the time I have noticed no change.

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DJIA Intraday Bear Market Update

After the stock bears stopped for their Turkey dinners, they seemed to have resumed their decline.  At this time my wave positions haven’t changed all that much but there will always be adjustments and fine-tuning along the way.  It may take far more downside before the majority start to clue into the size or scope of the impending bear market.

When the small minority start to see the bearish scenario all at the same time then a mini panic usually occurs. Black Friday shopping and Black Friday stock market panics are not the same things!  🙂

I will keep this update fairly short, but most of the indices I cover have similar wave counts.  Trillions of US dollars has evaporated (lost) in a puff of E-Smoke already,  and I’m sure deeper losses are still to come this year.  Money destruction is hardly ever associated with “deflation” but that is exactly what is happening.  This is now the third episode of money destruction since the 2000 peaks. It’s far from over as the 2016 lows might give the markets some temporary support.

Any market rally that does not act like it’s in a real bull market, will just be another bearish rally. “All” bear market rallies retrace themselves eventually, and the size of these bear market rallies depends on the degree level we think we are in.  Sorry, but any Cycle degree bear market is not going to end in just a few months, or even in a few years, as this could take until 2022 to play out!

 

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DJIA Intraday Downside Resumes!

This is a quick update and it may be the last one before I switch to the March 2019 contract. They run 3 months at a time but the volume is still a bit light in the March 2019 contract. Since Sunday night the DJIA has started to resume its decline after the Minute degree wave 2 completed.  In this case, it is impossible to give any price support forecast, as you have to ask “Support for what”?  The support that will make the DJIA soar to new extremes, or just temporary support that might last a few weeks or so?

If my 5 wave sequence is real then wave [i] support will never hold. Any bear market rally like this always retraces its entire bullish move, and I expect nothing less.

I checked the Gold/DJIA ratio this morning and it was one of the most expensive readings yet! It takes over 20 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DJIA, from a max reading of 17:1. Cheap would be closer to 7:1, but that will not happen any time soon.

Longer term I think the markets will crash at an “A” wave in Primary degree but that won’t happen until Minor degree waves 3-4-5 has fully played out.  I would need another 3-4-5 wave as Minute degree also needs to play out.

There still hasn’t been an extension to speak of, but I’m sure it will show up one day. This type of 1-2, 1-2 wave count can be the setup for an extended run, but the last 5th wave could extend as well.

The 2018 January peak is the real peak and the third bull market peak since 2000. Each bear market since 2000 has been worse as each bear market bottom was also one degree higher.

This bear market is going to be much bigger than the 2007-2009 bear market was even though the markets may never break below 2009 lows.  This Cycle degree bear market will be a bit longer than what 2008 was. The 1929 bear market only took 3 years, but this decline could take a total of 4 years. 2018-2022.

I can see it already when the talking heads are calling for DOW 5500, you can come back and I will have a DOW 34,000 forecast.

 

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DJIA Intraday Rally Update

 

I looked at all the peaks of the markets that I cover and there is a good case that can be made that the expanded flat was just a diagonal wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree.  Sooner or later the markets will head in the direction it wants, but it should not soar to new record highs. Bullish moves this fast have nothing to do with fundamentals as it is more likely that the “Fear Of Missing Out” and buy stops getting hit is the main cause.

With a new location of the Cycle degree peak Wave 3, we would be starting a new set of impulse waves as well. There is no Market Vane Report for the DJIA but they do have the SP500 and the Nasdaq. Those reports are not at any extreme, and matter of fact is one of the most boring reports I have seen. Even the previous Market Vane Report was starting to get boring. Extreme readings is what I’m looking for, and I didn’t see any at this time.

Most commercial hedger readings were net short but I suspect they added to their long positions in the last few days.  I will not find out until Friday nights reports are published.

I’m still bearish long term but in the short term, the markets can still go up!

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DJIA, Intraday Rally Update.

 

The DJIA finished on the upside last night, but this E-Mini contract sure reversed in a hurry.  I can work an expanded flat for last Octobers bottom but at the same time, I also dropped my degree level down by one. The long run-up sure looks like a good set of 5 waves, so we also may have finished at an “A” wave in Minute degree. In other words, we might only be a 3d of the way through this potential bear market rally. Most of this market rally was just the “Buy” stops getting hit right up to a big a previous high. The DJIA also ended with another spike to the upside and if this is still a bear market rally, then the markets will go back to creating lower lows.

I will keep the postings short today until I get a chance to review all the COT reports that come out every Friday.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Rally Update.

 

Two days ago this Mini DJIA chart ended with a nice long spike to the downside, and since then the markets have been in a rally.  Is the correction over? Not by long shot folks as the world markets are in a tailspin. If we only had a single wild crash much like 1987, then I would turn bullish much sooner. The problem with thinking about 1987 is that the 1987 crash was just a “Minor” degree crash.  This crash will be larger by 4-degree levels and has a good chance of producing a long drawn out bearish phase, which has not happened since the 1930-32 decline.  1987 was 31 years away, while the 1929 peak to 2018 is now 89 years.  I have learned not to ignore the Fibonacci 89 years as that is 1 year short of the 30-year cycle. If I use 60, 90 or 120 years, just divide those numbers into 30-year sections which I use as my time forecasts into the future.

We can be out by a minimum of 61% (.618) In price and time, so I want to be very careful when I move a big degree around in the future.  Imagine jumping 100’s of years forwards or backward in time by drawing a number or letter on a chart! Flipping numbers and letters around like flipping burgers is just like a warp jump going to Mars. It might take until Supercycle degree wave 3 to colonize Mars towards the 2041 time period. 2041 is only a “one” degree jump while many others are over 3-degree levels off.

At the intraday level, it’s a different ball game, but I look for all the Minor degree turns first. All the warnings investors got with this market top, they still think they can escape before the crowd. Some experts are still as bullish as we can get and they seemed to want to ignore the reversal of fundamentals that the Trade War is bringing.

End of the month has arrived and if this bearish market has legs, our present little price support will never last!

 

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DJIA Intraday Crash Update: No Rules In A Bull And Bear Fight!

 

It looks like the markets are resuming their larger trend if we all knew what that large trend actually is.  This is my third big stock market crash I am actively tracking and it is also the third peak that has to have a wave position to it that fits. Most markets I am tracking have an expanded pattern to them which ended October 3, 2018. The real top ended in January of 2018, just about 10 months ago.  I know how much the wave counts will distort every outlook if we keep ignoring any expanded tops. The January peak is my third wave 3-4 peak since the market bubble top in 2000, and it should produce bear market conditions that will be worse than what the 2008 crash produced, but not as bad as the 1930’s depression.  1932 was my wave 2 in Supercycle degree, which will not end until we get closer to 2041.

In the short term, it could take until 2022 to play out, but we should also get another huge counter rally that not too many people will see coming, as they all think that the bull market has returned.

Gold reacted positively to this market decline, which may be a good sign for gold investors, but a “run” to safety is a human emotional move that will reverse just as fast because if stocks start to rally again, they will dump gold and gold stocks in a flash. The markets have never been tested with the world on “High Speed” data lines, where flash crashes could become normal. We have seen what high-speed computer trading has done in the past, and the FCC is powerless to do anything about it.

I have flexibility when counting down the start to this bear market, but sooner or later real fear will take-over then all the analytics in the world will not work, nor make any sense.

All those that are calling to, “Buy on the dips”,  do not know how big this stock bubble actually is. This market should have a Primary degree counter rally coming, which is when I will become bullish again.

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Intraday E-Mini DJIA Rally Update

 

I think this market rally is just another bear rally, and it could be coming to an end this week. We had 3 moves that overlapped each other which are signs that the market is also going against the larger trend.  We are going to run into many of these types of rallies, but we may not be at my anticipated wave 2 in Minor degree at this time. Yes, we did get a great spike to the downside, which can happen at any major bottom, but they also show up, when we only have a correction.

Today the DJIA made a vertical move to the upside, so that is looking good for a reversal as vertical moves like this cannot be maintained for very long.  Hopefully, we will see more downside by the end of this week, and a new record low will certainly confirm it.  Any support we presently do have is just a temporary rest stop.

You can bet that there are large amounts of stop-loss “Sell Orders” below present prices which can get triggered,  like what happened between the 9th and 10th of October. If any dips get too large, certain safeguards can kick in so don’t expect a 1929 stock market crash to happen all in one day.

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Markets Take a beating: DJIA Intraday Record High Update

 

This record peak that the media has beat to death for months, has finally reversed. Just a “correction”? Sure, a Cycle degree correction that could see the DJIA crash down to 7100! Is that the type of a correction you were looking for?  What this peak contains is an expanded top which would be the lead-in to an “A” wave bottom in Primary degree. After that bottom gets confirmed, then the rest of the pattern will just look like a giant zigzag. 5 waves down in Minor degree is what I will be looking for, which would finish the “C” wave crash that has started. Moves like this can extend beyond reason or beyond what anyone expects at this time.  I target 3-degree levels higher than Cycle degree and 3-degree levels below Cycle degree, and until Cycle degree wave 5 is completed, the largest corrective degree I can have is Primary degree.  Many other asset classes have already hit a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom, but the markets are still 3-4 years from doing that. 2022 would be the target date.  You will get a few guys that will constantly fill you in why the markets are heading down, but they can use the same excuse or reason when the markets go up.

Still,  we need to give it all a bit more time and distance to make sure the markets mean business this time.

 

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DJIA Record High Intraday Peak Update

 

Since late yesterday, the 5 indices I cover all seemed to peak and then started a strong decline. The peak we see in this intraday chart could be one out of a million, but if we don’t locate this peak then all our wave counts will just be a good guessing game.

The majority of investors are all leveraged to the long side and it’s only a matter of time before they realize that the shit has hit the fan, and they too will start to unload. The stock bubble the world is investing in has far surpassed the stock market mania that peaked in 2000.

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DJIA 2018 Cycle Degree Wave 3 Update

 

This is the CBOT Dow index which only updates during the day. The DJIA just recently broke out to new record highs, but only by the slimmest of margins. This fits the expanded top very well so until this market proves otherwise, I will remain as bearish as I ever have.  Sure it is next to impossiable to know exactly what day this may happen, but when it does it could be a very sharp decline initially.

This may not be obvious until the DOW crashes below the bottom wedge line, after which the bottom support prices at the 23,500 price level would be next to get hit. The 23,500 bottom my supply short-term support but jumping in on that dip will prove costly.  Lucky for wave analsyts that see this coming, but the majority of investors have no clue in what is going to hit them in the next 3 years!

We have a full moon today and only 5 trading days left in this third quarter, so shit can hit the fan when investors least expect it.

The entire 4th wave correction could take until 2022 to finish, which would be a deflationary crash. All the crashes since 2000 have taken a bit longer than the previous bear market, so a Cycle degree crash should be the longest in time.  Any “C” wave bottom that ends would get us to the stock market  Primary degree “A” wave, which should produce a Primary degree counter rally bullish phase! First the DJIA has to display 5 waves down in Minor degree, as gold should go up with 5 waves in Minor degree.

The DOW now shows 2 peaks which are very obviuous, but one peak belongs to the bullish side while the other already belongs to the bearish side!

Just like big bear market rallies, small counter rallies act the same way. Every bearish rally will completley retrace itself, so not until the impending decline starts to exhaust itself will it be safe to take a small bullish position.

The VIX is also getting excited as the COT commercial traders are clearly bullish in the VIX! On any of the US indices, the commercials are net short, so a big leg up in stocks is not what I see that is about to happen.

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DJIA 1980-2018 Review

 

I made this chart up yesterday and started the count from 1980. From a Cycle degree perspective I need to see or use three degrees below any Cycle degree, otherwise I break the sequential chain. The EWP is not what we see, but is what we are supposed to see if we followed the blue prints or our perception of one. I know there are wave analysts out there that have detailed wave positions, but they have no real money behind their convictions. I can see the most elaborate work but if they miss a stock market crash, or worse yet miss an entire 10 year bull market.

If you see any expert wave counts that do not have every single set of 5 waves capped at all times, then that analysts is spelling it out clearly that he has no clue where he is! If you see a question mark or some “X” wave,  then they also don’t know where they are.

I’m sure not a single wave analysts can draw the simple 5 waves and an extended wave 3 if they were to be tested. (With no Book) If we can’t draw our 5 simple corrections and how they fit together, then how in the world do we know what we are supposed to be looking for.

Intraday wave counting is required for the day traders as I only need to know 3 degree levels below Cycle degree and three degree levels above Cycle degree.  SC, GSC, and Subillennium wave 3 are all ahead of us still many decades away.  There are 30 year cycles always in affect and we can count backwards from our present 2018 top. 89 years, 1 year less than three, 30-year cycles, is also a Fibonacci number. 2018 minus 89 years, gets us back to the 1929 stock market peak, and we all know what followed.

From 1929-1932 it was a three year crash and bear market, that contained a zigzag that stretched much longer than any zigzag ever shown in the EWP book.  If it happens once, it can happen again so now I count with super long “C” waves at the smallest degree level.

This chart is still well below the January peak so a potential expanded pattern is taking place. Even the SP500 which has traveled to new record highs is still part of the single expanded flat I’m tracking.  When it pops is never an exact science, but it sure will surprise all the investors when it does. There is a huge deflationary crash coming just like 1929 and 2007, and no asset class will go unscathed.  A market crash sending the DJIA back to 15,000 for starters would fit very well from my perspective.

I think late 2022 will be a major bottom, but after solar cycle #25 starts to crank up! It’s solar cycle #25 that will save the stock market, so if you have any bearish thoughts and bearish positions at that time your bearish view of the future will be destroyed.

Investing at a record bubble high has trapped the majority all the time. They always tell you to stay invested for the long term, just before markets crash 70-89%!

Needless to say, I’m very bearish on stocks but I also know that a huge bear market rally is going to kill the bears off again.

I will not be investing or trading in the general markets, as the gold sector is my speciality where I have enough experience with.

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DJIA Mini Daily Chart Review.

 

I will be avoiding the actual contract months as much as possible as the real trades can distort wave patterns that are not real. Switching between bar and line mode will tell you that, as there are different wave counts between the two.  I try and always confirm my Cycle degree connections by 3 whole degrees lower, which is the same as being three steps ahead of the crowd.

This DJIA chart has not scored new record highs like the SP500 has done, so it still fits my expanded top very well. The rally that started in April is about as choppy as they come, and is usually an indication it’s fighting against a larger bearish trend.  Gold has done about the same pattern already!

The Gold/Dow ratio is at 21.56: but we  have to reverse this and think it takes over 21 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW. Expensive was over 17:1 and at 21:1 it is the most expensive ratio I have for 2018.

Investors around the world are in a government-created inflated record stock market high, all based on free money.  Governments are doing everything to keep this inflated bubble growing. It’s not the size of the bubble that’s really the issue, it’s the size of the “needle” that will prick it which will be the problem! Is Italy going to bring the entire world down or is it going be China or even Japan, as they have gone on a record money printing spree in their entire history. Deflation is in our future not inflation, as the US dollar is in a massive bull market that nobody even believes that it can happen.

Just watch the gold price for the next three years, and you will witness deflation first hand.

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Mini DJIA 2007-2018 Review

Many are waiting for the DJIA to break out into new record highs as this correction in a bull market is just about over!  Any new record high can happen but this could also mean that a potential expanded pattern is at work.   When this turns then it can happend very quickly where there will be little time to react.

What we are looking at is a potential wave 3 peak in Cycle degree and the impending correction could still take 2-3 years to play out. Cycle degree in stocks and a Cycle degree in gold is pretty hard to understand but that is what we are facing in the next few years. President Trump is already peeved with the FED rate raising policy, and I  agree. The FED is fighting an old war taking data from lagging indicators, like they always do.

The big threat is deflation and not inflation. Gold, oil and the stock markets also crashed together in 2008 which was one of the first warnings that deflation is going to rear its ugly head. Back in 2008 the USD was hated by everyone as they could not run fast enough out of the US dollar. Of course the US dollar had other plans as it soared while everything else crashed.

If in the rest of 2018 stocks and gold sync up, then there is a very high proability that they can sync up for many years.  Nobody sees this starting to happen, but it has all happened before, in 1920-1932. The big difference between then and now is the level of degree. 1929-1932 was a SC degree wave 1-2 crash while in 2018 we are one degree lower at Cycle degree wave 3. Any deflationary pressures will not be as bad as the 30’s, but it should be worse than what the 2008 crash produced.

Warren Buffet keeps buying Apple stock at world record highs, and is single-handedly keeping the markets on a bullish path.

Only the rich can keep playing this game now, as they own 80% of all assets. Those that are sitting on static assets as the enjoy monthly gains, do no work to earn those gains. Real estate will be one of the biggest losers as high real estate prices serves no one. All it takes is a small liquidity crisis from anywhere in the world, and people will be forced to liquidate as they are all caught in a bull trap.

Stocks are now more than twice as expensive as they were in 2000 but most investors are oblivious to this fact. Investors playing with bubbles do not see themselves in a bubble, or worse yet, they think they can escape just in time.

At a minimum we should get back to 2015-2016 lows, where we may find temporary support as well. Ultimately the bottom support line will never hold as the markets could see a 70% or more crash.

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1987+31 Years = 2018! DJIA Impending Crash Update

 

This is the DJIA index chart and I have been doing some basic calculations, counting forwards and backwards using the 30 year cycle. This 30 year cycle has a plus or minus error of 1 year. When I first checked this by counting 100 years backwards to 1918 and then to 2101 I found this frequency to be so consistent that nothing on this planet can match this forecasting indicator. If you are ready or not, there is a huge market crash coming 30 years after the 1987 crash, and 89 years from the 1929 peak.

This 89-year Fibonacci number is only off 1 year and we have 3, 30 year cycles completed. There are many other dates that all fit very well including the 100 year cycle, like 1918 + 100  years!  Cycle degree wave 3 has already ended in most part, while gold has also ended its Cycle degree mania peak in 2011. You can’t fight cycles escpecially this 30 year cycle. Throw in the solar cycles as well, and this 2021 time period is going to get interesting to say the least. You can’t beat solar cycles, so counting waves with the solar cycles in mind should never be forgotten.

The Death Cross in the DJIA is still going to happen on the daily charts, so longer term stocks are going to get hit with huge price declines. (Deflation) This fall will tell us more, which should be followed by a massive gold and stock market rally lasting into the mid-2019 time period. Deflation is the real threat as the USD will remain strong during the entire time, except by the end of this year. The USD can crash and burn sending gold and stocks back up, in a wild bear market rally that will shock stock and gold investors alike.

Since all my wave analysis is dedicate to Cycle degree, it makes it easy to forecast any SC and GSC degree future peaks. This 30 year cycle is not going away folks as the next 3 cycle peaks would be 2041, 2071 and 2101. How these 30 year cycles form is my speciality which only my paid one on one clients get to see in detail. Of course all this imformation is all out there for free, but only a few will do the work required to confirm these cycles. Many of my indicators have been developed in-house as I do not need any expert to tell me when the markets and gold are going to crash.

We are heading into a deflationary crash folks, where all static investors will get slaughtered as they all become trapped. Being invested at the top of a Death Cross is financial suicide, yet most people are oblivious to what’s going to happen.

The EWP is what you design it to be. If you just want mindless day trading setups, while missing every major move, then that is what you will get. We get from the markets what we want, and if you don’t have a clear goal of what you want planned out, then your hopes and dreams will not get realized.

In well over 2 years 3 months, not a single person has suggested that they are switching over to Cycle degree wave analysis as it requires real money trading to confirm it all. 99.999% of all wave analysts have no skin in the game so it would take someone special to keep Cycle degree analysis going into the future. This blog may only run until Cycle degree wave IV has completed, after which Elliott Wave 5.0 could go dark permanently.

I will never waste my time and money shorting popular companies and indices, as all the short players on this planet are trying to do the same thing. Betting the markets when they are going down is not a game for sissies, as you have to have impeccable timing to make them work well.

 

 

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DJIA Intraday Turning And Crash Review!

http://www.etf.com/sections/monthly-etf-flows/etf-monthly-fund-flows-july-2018

 

Investors poured $26.8 billion into stocks last month, and this month they are sitting on a Death Cross at this 90 min intraday scale. They are investing when the markets are at world record highs never seen before in history.  Investors are putting money into the markets just down from a historic Cycle degree wave 3 has already peaked.

Talk about brave investors buying on the dips. This kind of a move always coincides with a major top, and once they realize that the DJIA has crashed to 15,000 then we should hear news about funds flowing out again. We are in such a big inflated stock and housing bubble that nobody can afford anything decent to even rent in.

This has all happen before just in a different time period. Gold has finished a 30 year silver/gold mania peak n 2011, and it is far from finishing it’s correction. This is just the 90 min Death Cross set-up, as I have more Death Crosses than I can count! This is my third stock market crash I have called, even though my degree levels were of the charts!

There is a time to invest, and a time to sell and trade, and this record high is not my idea of smart investing.

Apple still has to flop as the rest wil drag everything down. No Little $1000 phone will stop that from happening. I love Apple products as I do all my work on my second iMac.

If you don’t think that the markets will crash then just spend a few hours and research everything about the world wide fertility crash that has been going on since the 1950’s.

I use my own indicators that I have developed over the years, and it is all based on gold and its ratio. I might have 10-15 of these ratios in a book and my record high expensive ratio for the DJIA was about 17.24:1. This means it took 17.24 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DOW. This record has been blown out of the water, as this morning the Gold/DJIA ratio hit 21:1! Yikes!

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Reversal?

I’ve come to the conclusion that investors don’t care about the EWP or don’t use it that much because it is too cryptic.

It’s the traders that might use it most often as that is about all that people that will make money in this bear market that nobody expects. There is going to be a rude awaking folks, and if you try to figure out in which direction this market can go then I will tell you a fundamental truth that nobody will tell you.

Stock investors are sitting on a time bomb called a Death Cross and they do not know it, Yet!  Gold also made a trip down this morning and downside break out is near. The stock market could follow as this has all happened before.

My Intraday stock updates are going to be reduced as I will spend my time with the gold crash and the short trade.  Please do not waste your time to figure out what fundamentals still apply because you can’t.  If you are not a contrarian then you become the victim and my wave counts don’t want you to vecome the victum as this market will crash as we go into the summer and fall.  Chances are extemely high at this point, that it looks like gold and stocks are all going the same way.  With nearly the same wave count.

When I see something like this being setup it can fit with my wave counts or it has to be dismissed. It has no impact on any of my wave positions so it has a high chance of happening. We will find out when gold crashes below $800, as the DOW should not be too far behind to reverse as well.

My gold wave counts are now being tested 24 hours perday, as long as I’m in any positions long or short.  Gold is in a Cycle degree bear market and so are stocks so I call this a pretty good correlation.

If this DOW rally is already a bearish rally then complete retracement of this move will happen with no exceptions.

Another big rule I use is that, “Fundamentals will never tell you the right things at the extremes”  and in old futures traders lingo they call it  them “Funny-Mentals”. Markets will always do the opposite of funamentals and if you think that is not true then do your homework . Did the fundamentals in early 2009 tell you that the biggest stock bull market was comming?  Did you miss that bull market because you listened to the fundamantal bullshit or did you see it as one of the greatest buying opportunity of your life?

Sooner or later this market will start to roll over and then the rest will become history. If investors forget the past then they are doomed to repeat all the same mistakes of he past. This is no longer a market to invest in but it will be the traders paradise.  The ones that feel comfortable in trading up (long) or down (short) will be the winners.

 

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Dow Index Daily Chart: Hunt For The Death Cross!

  I have increased my chart sizes so they print out in more detail on 8×10 or larger formats. Hopefully, readers will like the higher quality charts for the extra detail.

This is a daily chart and does not move during the night so I can make these charts at any time. The 50-200 day SMA is great, but it all depends on what we want to use it for. I use it to figure out in advance when a Death Cross (DC) or a Golden Cross (GC) is going to happen next. From what I have seen a Death Cross means excatly what it says as the Death Cross can forecast huge swings and bear markets.  Most of this stuff is not rocket science, but many have never heard about crossings as they know no Technical Analysis of any type.

Back around 2011 the last Golden Cross had formed but always lagging to any wave count. Because they are lagging signals, we know a future crossing will happen and they will show up first on the daily charts.  When they are this close together it could just take 10 weeks or so when the 50 day crosses from the top down, and slices through the 200 day line. It’s always the 50 day line that does the slicing as the 200 day SMA line is the slow turtle, so to speak.

Next thing you know the stock market plunges to 20,000 where the 200-day line meets on the weekly charts. No analysts on Wall Street are screaming about an impending Death Cross. At best a few may call the Death Cross after it happens. They’re all asleep at the switch. There is a lot of backchecking I would want to do before using them in the stock markets. Due to the wild swings in commadaties, they work well with my Cycle degree wave counts.

Right now, the markets are always waiting for someone or some report to come out before it decides if the DJIA wants to implode. I believe a serious recession is in the wind, bordering on a depression and this so-called “correction” is just the start of a much bigger crash than anyone suspects. We are dealing with a Cycle degree bear market where a huge counter rally (bear market rally) will try and fool all of us again.  The markets will have little problem in sucking back investors, when they think the worst is over.  Any “B” wave in Primary degree will get completely retraced. I treat the total retracement of a bear market rally, as something chiseled in stone, as it’s not something I invented. The EWP book is full of the words, “always and never”, so I use always or equivalent expressions.

Any low targets are usually close to the September October time periods and we might get to the Primary degree “A” wave by that time. This could also sync up with the potential of gold’s “A” wave bottom of Primary degree as well. That would be a good trick even if it’s close. In good times the majority is never prepared for bad times, and this time it shouldn’t be any different! The stock market party has ended folks, and Elvis has left the building. No amount of cheering will bring him back.  🙄

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Quick Intraday DJIA Update

This is the September contract and in it we see far more violent moves than what the standard DJIA index will give us. By the looks of what I see is that the DJIA is still heading south, but it will also get closer to some key previous support price levels.  If there is more to this decline than meets the eye, then any support price has no hope of holding. The majority love to analyze everything using “Price”. Pattern pulls far more weight than any price forecast will do as the markets are controlled by the wave structure not by the price structure.

One example of this is, did the “price” of the bear market low in 2009 gave you a clear signal that a huge bull market was coming? Not a fricken chance folks. Even all the expert wave counters that always deal in the price of an asset class, didn’t see the big bull market coming.  So, are all the wave analysts going to see this next bear market coming? Sure a few will, but many still have super bullish wave counts. They will constantly flip numbers and letters around, add a bunch of question marks to the charts, and then they can always claim to be right. The Nasdaq has squeezed out another new record high while the DJIA is heading south. Talk about marching to a different drummer or what! It will clear up, but that still may take some time.

Buying on any “Dip” is going to be financial suicide if we don’t understand the size of the “Big Dip” that is coming.  Any market can correct back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, and can even go lower like the DJIA did in 2009.  The only so called safe trade would be if we catch wave “A” in Primary degree. By that time the DJIA bears will be in a trap and any rally will force them to change directions. There is nothing as powerful as when the entire herd has to change directions, as they scramble to get out of their short positions.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Chart Review

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These market gyrations have been going on long enough keeping any realistic wave counts in the dark. Short term anything can still happen as I’m not going to rule out anything until all the price support we see above, has been completely retraced.  When that happens then we know that the rallies in the last 3-4 months have been nothing but a bear market rally. I’m not too concerned about the bigger bear market,  as we still have plenty of time left for a Cycle degree 4th wave correction to play out.  In a bear market we get rallies alright, but they are at a smaller scale. They still fool the majority as every rally they think is the start of the next bull market.

I will be using some “cosmetic” wave counting in the short term which only involves going back to the January peak. I started another 5 wave decline which still has a long way to go.  This looks like it could be in a 4th/5th wave pattern, which should also produce new record lows.

I doubt it will complete buy the end of this month, as it’s a race. Wil the DJIA push to a new record high before it pushes to a new record low?  I think the DJIA has a lot less distance to travel  before all support prices have been retraced.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Bull Run Takes A Break!

Running with the bulls can wear you out, so the bulls are taking a bit of down time as they run in the opposite direction. The question is how far south will the run? The May run sure looks like an impulse to run as 5 waves have completed.   Short term we are still faced with violent moves in both directions, blowing us a lot of smoke to keep any real trend hidden. Eventually the smoke will clear as violent moves (volatility) is very normal when a major change in trend is in progress.  We have a wedge forming as well, so the bottom base of  23,400 has been hit 4-5 times.

We know that “sell” stops are all piling up below this price level, so when that fails the bulls might just capitulate in the short term.  The DJIA is starting to look more like the SP500, but short term any run like this can just correct and resume its charge back up.  I think the short term 24.300 price level will tell us more as that is where I would expect another turning to occur. This may take all week to clear up. Today is the new moon day and many times this can produce strong reversals.  I just don’t see crude oil heading north as the DJIA heads south. In 2008 everything crashed together, oil, gold & silver, gold stocks and all the other indices around the world.  11 years later we are faced with the same setup, but also with many asset classes being at different stages in  any crash.

Gold and oil also made some major moves this morning so I will cover that today as well. I will keep most of my intraday chart analysis between Tuesdays and Fridays as I have to keep my attention on the big trends first.  Any wave analyst can produce you all sorts of numbers and letters giving you short term trade setups.  Short term trade setups mean nothing, if we miss the biggest bear or any of the big bull markets.  The reason short term day traders are everywhere, is because they have no clue what the big trend is that we may be in.

Like Jim Rogers says, ” A big bear market is coming” and it could take a lot of other asset classes with it.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Chart Update.

My Intraday market reports are going to slow down a bit. There is no sense for me to post intraday charts on the weekends including Mondays. During that 3 day time span I will keep my updates to Daily, Weekly and Monthly chart analysis only.  It is impossible to constantly post intraday charts when there has not been sufficient time for the wave pattern to play out. My concern is always the bigger picture which is Primary, Intermediate and Minor degree levels.

I will no longer use more than three colors to separate degree levels as 3 will do for anything we are going to use in a Cycle degree world.

In over 3 months the DJIA still has a downward bias that is very hard to ignore. The bulls are ignoring it as they are looking to buy on the “Dips”. Any analyst that calls for support is bullish in a bearish world which at this time still is the majority. “Value” hunters are having problems in finding opportunities which stands to reason when the markets have been at world record highs for 9 years!

As I post there was still upside left, that still could slice through my top trend line. All the bearish market moves so far, do not indicate that there has been a strong enough bottom to justify another huge leg up in some mythical moon shot still to come. Think of Cycle degree as the Mount Everest peak, SC degree as the moon, and last but not to be forgotten GSC degree, would be Mars!  🙄

At this rate it could take a long time before we know what pattern we are going to get first in a Primary degree bear market. For a flat the opening could just be a zigzag in Intermediate degree which would land on the “A” wave in the Primary degree than I’m after. I will try different wave counts without notice, as using a different wave count we are posting it for elimination!  In a few years time these intraday chart moves will blend back into the woodwork and you will never see them again.  All charts I post are filed on my home hard drive, and is also automatically backed up with a Time Machine setup, so I can go back and take second looks on most intraday charts.

So far it looks like a diagonal decline, but they can smooth out like gold stocks eventually did, so for the short term we could miss a few surprise counter rallies. Most of the time it’s just stops that are getting hit. Every trader has been brainwashed into using stops, so the sell orders are piling up below present prices.  I have three different patterns to work with so until they smooth out a bit some “Cosmetic Wave Counting” will be necessary. Eventually “all” cosmetic wave positions will be doomed.  Cosmetic wave counting is all about those experts that never have gone back in history, to double check the structural integrity of the wave counts.

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DJIA Intraday Plunge Update!

All calls for one more blast to the upside are starting to evaporate faster than ice dumped on hot pavement as we are approaching a downside breakout situation. For now in looking at a potential Minute degree diagonal pattern which can smooth out as more and more people become bearish on stocks. Retracing the entire April rally will happen if my bigger bearish scenario is in effect.  Pretty words and fundamental jargon will not stop a bear market once the peak has completed. This is my third big bear market I’m working, but still each bear market will be different than the other two bear markets. I will keep my updates a bit shorter than normal for a few days, but I dedicated my time and effort to map all 5 waves in Cycle degree, and at best we are only at a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. My preliminary Cycle degree wave three peak count, is about 16 this week. Some are still a bit fuzzy but they will clear up in time. If I’m still short a Cycle degree peak, then I will count out a fringe asset class like cotton!  Working on 16 Cycle degree wave three peaks are more than what you will find anywhere on the Internet, bar none.

Ask yourself, “How many other expert wave analysts have even found one wave 3 in Cycle degree”? Not a single wave 3 peak in SC or GSC degree has ever been confirmed since the 2000 peaks.  If you think you see a good SC or GSC peak anywhere on the internet today, then I will find a sequential problem pretty quickly. Any SC degree bear market needs a very specific wave count to get confirmed as there are always three sets of simple corrections we have to deal with.

Our 5 wave bull market must be sorted out to what degree it is in,  as this is critical to determine where we are in the bigger picture. There can be no room for alternate discussions as being out by just “one” higher degree or one lower degree will fail.

Short term, things can always go sideways or swing wildly in both directions as that is the sign that a trend change is taking place.

At this time I have several different bearish wave counts between my 5 core indices, but they could also clear up or smooth out some in the coming years.

This May I’ll be starting my third year with this blog and last month saw the highest pageviews I have ever had! Over 71,000 pages were viewed in one month, which puts this blog on track for a million pages viewed by the end of 2018. Needless to say I’m impressed by those numbers and every single visitor deserves an extra big, “Thank You” from me.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Gyrations Review

Next month we will be starting out the 4th month of this so called correction.  Many are still calling to buy on the dips because this market is going to the moon. Oh Really? We’ve heard all that before.   All those that have the “Buy on The Dip” mentality have no clue how big the “Big Dip” will actually be.

The bulls are all looking for a support price which also tells me that they have little understanding about how big the dip will be. There is only one dip I want to see and that is the “dip” that starts a new bull market.  Another 8 year bull market to be exact.  The way this bear market has started, still leaves too many wave patterns unanswered.   Sure, we also have a declining trend line, but the test will be if that top down trend line will hold. We may need all of May before we find out, because so far the market is doing a good job in fooling most of the wave analysts.

Elliott Wave analysts travel in herds just like any real world animals do. Three main groups come to mind. The Supercycle degree herd and then the Grand Supercycle degree herd. Of course  the most popular wave counting group is the GSC degree group, which are very easy to identify. Both groups do leave many of their 5th waves “Uncapped”. Any uncapped 5th wave sends a clear signal to the readers that they have no clue where they really are with no concept of Wave 1-2, 1-2, base counting.  Every, 5th wave we will ever run into, in the future must be capped, by “one” higher degree. Otherwise the wave count is incomplete and the Elliott Wave sequence is broken. In my Cycle degree world you can’t leave a single 5th wave uncapped, ever!

I plan on posting a page that will explain the 1- 2 wave, base counting. I have gone back to 1500 CE,  (Little Ice Age) and have labelled 7 “sets” of 1-2 wave bottoms already. 1500 CE is my base for the Submillennium Degree wave 2 position.

In the short term this market could keep going sideways, and the next thing you know, we will be at a “B” wave top in Intermediate degree!  If that happened then, the “B” wave top paints a picture of the rest of the bear market.  We are at a critical point as all support must crumble, if the bigger bearish trend is already in effect!

There are still too many options at this stage of the game, but I have confidence that it can get it sorted out, as the starting waves to many bear markets, can always be very fuzzy.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Crash Review

The DJIA has finally succumbed to bearish pressure, but we could still see a violent counter rally at any time. The DJIA must trash all support price levels that you see on the chart above, if the decline is more serious than what the investing bulls thinks it is. This DJIA chart I am cheating a bit in that I’m also working it as a potential diagonal decline. This may smooth out once any decline starts to get recognized, but this is still too early to tell.

In the afternoon the DJIA dropped close to 700 points which is a pretty good vertical drop. Sure, we can draw a wedge from the bottom up and if this is as bearish as I think it will be that bottom invisible wedge line will not hold.  We do have 3 lower high peaks in this developing trend, and that indicates a bearish phase in progress.  I don’t want to abuse wedges and trend lines as they can be extremely biased most of the time. The DJIA saw its peak way back in January of 2o18 which may be the top for 2018 as well. Sooner or later investors will lose patience and when a group sees the same thing at the same time we get mini panic sell offs, like today.

At the top I have 3 sets of 5 waves that have terminated which “must” be stacked from the smallest to the largest, which in this case is Cycle degree wave 3.

My strict rule is that no 5th wave peak should be left uncapped, “EVER” because an uncapped 5th wave clearly tells me an analyst is just guessing or bluffing.

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