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Category Archives: GSCI

GSCI Daily Chart! The Final Countdown!

                            Europe – The Final Countdown (Official Video)

Music always goes good with looking at wave positions. In this case when I’m counting down the slope, The Final Countdown always seems to come up. Very few are bearish on commodities like I am. I’m a bear inside a bull herd and I love it. That’s what Elliott Wave is all about! I have said it all along that this gold/oil bull market is a bear market rally and in order for this to get confirmed by the markets, the GSCI must completely retrace it’s entire bullish phase, back down and below the price point of origin.

The short version is that the commodities meltdown is in progress and we are heading down to a Death Crossing (DC). “ALL” those that have bullish positions will get forced out if they like it or not, or they will suffer the meltdown trying to stand on an impending DC!  Once the smaller majority see the same thing happening then mini panics kick in and a bearish move starts to snowball.  We have a good support price range at the “B” wave, and the decline can give us a hard time at that point.

I will be switching more to the gold markets during this meltdown, as my wave positions are working wave positions in the gold sectors. For people that think that long range planning is nonsense, then they can keep using the EWP for short term mindless trade setups. The EWP is much, much more than just the quest for simple stupid trade setups.  All this may take until the end of the year to clear up some more, as we have to get past the DC first. I have small short positions out on gold and gold stocks so I have real money on my wave counts.

When this all hits bottom and you want to bet on the reversal, then you must be fully prepared now ! If by the time gold hits $800 or GDX sees $8-$12 and traders are not ready, you will miss any bullish reversal that will come.

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June, 1, 2018 GSCI – Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GD) 1999-2018 Review

When we start back in 1999 I have it as a 4th wave bottom in Primary degree. For many years I worked this index with a 4th wave Cycle degree bottom in 1999. Every major expert wave analysts forced a 5 wave impulse which blew its top right along with oil in 2008.  I hate to rain on your parade but the move from 1999 to 2008 was not an impulse, it was a zigzag as part of any diagonal bull market.

The entire Submillennium degree 5 wave sequence is all diagonal related so we should always expect a zigzag to show up when we least expect them to. Forcing a 7 wave pattern  into a 5 wave count, is breaking the rules of the highest order.

My best calculation is that this Submillennium move is about 528 years old with a few hundred years to go, before wave 3 in Submillennium degree will even  get close.

Diagonals contain many zigzags, and at this time I see that most of my commodity Cycle degree 4th wave bear markets, will be zigzags. Some are triangles, and a few are iffy but I’m targeting about 3o Cycle degree bear markets in total at this time.

The crash from 2008 down to late 2008 was about as straight as we can get. Fast starting moves like this is usually a sign of a zigzag as 5 waves are dramatically compressed. In a flat the first “A” wave would be very choppy with the ‘C5’  tail being very straight.

Yes we had a real wild top during the 2011-2013 time period but that can also into a diagonal as well.  You would think that the 2016 bottom shoud produce a flying impuse but that 2016 bottom is a bit short for the completion of a 4th wave in Cycle degree. We had the same wild correction as other commodaties that I was working, which was an inverted zigzag.  Inverted zigzags are bear market rallies, and bear market rallies always retrace their entire bullish moves. Another big example of bear market rallies completely retracing their entire bullish move is this chart, as the 2008 bottom has been retraced once already. There is no reason why this index should keep on soaring when the entire world is conducting a trade war.

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GSCI – Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GD)

With oil crashing, and gold showing bearish signs as well, I thought I would look at the GSCI. This GSCI fits better with the oil charts and  has not been in a bearish decline. This could work as a potential “D” wave with the first “A” wave, already completed.  So far the decline has not displayed and type of a zigzag. I would rather see a flat correction develop in a “B” wave of a zigzag, as a zigzag correcting in  a zigzag is very rare indeed.

Not until I see a great looking correction starting to finish, can I turn bullish with this chart. How much Natural Gas will play a role in any counter rally,  is not clear at this time.

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GSCI – Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GD) Review

 

 

At this time I think the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index or the GSCI gives us a better picture of the bullish phase that started in early 2016. It represents oil more that it does gold, and it also shows the diagonal better leading into what could be the “A” wave in Intermediate degree.  Even after the June 2016 crash the following bullish phase is very foggy as so many critical waves overlap. 

A zigzag with an expanded running flat could have sent us to the first wave in Minor degree. After all, we are in a bullish run that has some extreme diagonal waves in it. Waves 3,4 and 5 will also be very choppy, and it is also a good reason why this bullish phase can still take so long to play out.  Even that last 5 waves were so choppy that they fit better into an ending diagonal, than a logical 4th wave triangle.

Crude oil rolled over long before that,  and is a bit out of  perfect sync, to this GSCI. I would have to start from scratch,  and build a Gold/Gsci ratio with a few calculations from at least two extremes. Four extreme readings would be much better. Any potential wave 2 in Minor degree may not be finished as well, so in the short term anything can happen.  Tomorrow on the 27th we start a full moon phase, which can be very bullish for stocks as well, even though it may only be a short term thing.

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GSCI – Goldman Sachs Commodity Index 1999-2016 Review

 

This S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, will also be in a new category under Indices, but in the future I will post it as GSCI.  The chart below is as good as looking at the oil chart, but with some differences which I will try and explain. I have subdivided critical parts into 3 degree levels, lower than my largest Intermediate degree. 3 degree levels should be the minimum that needs to be done, when a detailed wave count is needed. Three degree levels have to fit well into the bigger sequence, before it starts to make sense. 

Since the 1999 bottom, GSCI had started a bull market, which many have called 5 waves up in Primary degree. I was also sucked into this wave count when I first started. I had to wake up to the fact, that diagonal waves rule the markets, not impulse waves. In Chapter 4: Page 143 of the EWP, it shows a small version of a diagonal 5 waves going down. It also shows the labeling which is best explained using labels, that make it very clear, that we are in a diagonal.

I use ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4, and ABC5  for all diagonal counts, including any ending triangle as well. This is all specific to the degree we think we are working in. 

The majority of diagonal 5 waves can be found in any “5th” wave, and in any “C” wave. This applies to all moves up or down, and at all degree levels as well. What is good in one degree, I use across all degree levels. This simplifies things and technically gives us an indicator for a potential location.

This is a short explanation about my take on diagonal wave counting, and I call it, “The Enhanced Diagonal Wave Counting Method”.

 

gsci-1-oct-1-2016

 

1999 was a major bottom, which would be wave 2 in Intermediate degree. Many were brainwashed into using “WXY” waves, but “WXY” waves do an excellent job of hiding diagonal wave structures. This usally sends us off into some higher degree that we should never be in. Forcing a 5 wave impulse from 1999 to the 2008 top, is wrong, as we should never force any wave counts.  Just because it’s the easy thing to do, doesn’t mean it’s right. Only the masses see the “easy” wave counts first, so I rely on them to waste their time in chasing some mythical pattern. 

From the 1999 bottom I counted 7 waves, not the full 5 we would need for a true impulse. Once I applied the diagonal wave count to it, that bull market started to make more sense. What we see is part of a Primary degree diagonal 5th wave. The majority were convinced at the 2008 top, that prices were going to the moon, suppling us some wild and ridiculous forecasts at the same time.

My favorite contrarian saw right through the bullshit, (BS, or bullish sentiment) 😀 at that time, as we were both calling for oil to crash.  When the majority were convinced that the trend is only up, then the GSCI did the unthinkable, and started to implode. Many saw the 2008 crash coming, as only the majority were caught in that bull trap. 

The crash ended in early 2009 before it started to rally, which the majority were also calling a bull market. Of course, that proved wrong again, as the entire trip to the 2011 peak has now been retraced. 

Bear markets are just corrections to bigger bull markets yet to come. In this case we would be working an old bull market, that started closer to 1986 along with crude oil. From the 2011 peak, which matched the peak in gold and oil, this market started a decline that defied the rules of any pure impulse, and that’s because it was just another diagonal 5 waves down in Minute degree. Diagonals are joined together with zigzag like patterns, which always alternate with each other. One zigzag ended in early 2015, and then it added one more diagonal wave down, into our present 2016 bottom.

This also makes a good case that Intermediate degree wave 4 has completed. We need to visualize a new pattern, for Intermediate degree wave 5 which I already started last year.  

Eventually the 5th wave has to be confirmed by market action, but we can knock down our choices at thos time, between 2 core patterns. I will be looking for a zigzag, and I think we are still a bit away from getting close to the “A” wave in Minor degree.  It will be the “B” wave correction, which will give us wave counters a real hard time, as the “B” wave can have 4 choices, which includes the complex choices.

All this is pointing to a potential wave 3 peak, in Cycle degree, which could still be a few years away. The 2017-2018 time period matching the 100 year cycle, would be my best bet at this time. 

When I find a high degree wave position, then I want that position to last forever. When they only last a few weeks or months, then the more we have to swing the degree positions around, the less trustworthy they are. The 2009 stock bear market decline clearly confirmed this.   Missing a complete big bull market because our wave degrees are all screwed up, is not acceptable to me anymore, and I will do anything to use the best contrarian indicators to help pick strong tops and bottoms. 

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