Do you believe in a 9 year bear market rally or 9 year diagonal wave structures? This pattern has broken the mold in that the 2007 bull market stretched like a rubber band. It took the same amount of time to play out, but it sure extended or stretched.
Just because it’s a “big and tall” move, does not mean we have to slip into a higher degree. In fact, it’s just the smaller degrees that are coming out of hiding in a Minor degree run. There are still 6 degree levels that can pop out of nowhere, which can screw up any wave count.
The GDOW 2002-2007 bull market is the exact same degree as all the 5 other indices I cover. At first glance the 2007-2009 decline looks like a great looking 5 wave impulse, but once the 2009 bullish phase started, the pattern started to fall apart in an obvious fashion.
You can’t have a record “B” wave top in a single zigzag correction, but in a flat you can.
We can easily get fooled into believing that this 9 year bullish phase is just a big “B” wave in Cycle degree! As a wave analyst, I always look for diagonal waves, and I see the potential for a diagonal 5th wave. Better yet an ending diagonal would make a much better fit.
During the early 2009 decline, I see a small ending diagonal as well. As long as similar patterns are separated by at least one degree, I would allow the count.
This GDOW also did not crash below 2002 lows which 4 other indices did. This means that in the event of a Cycle degree wave 4 crash, this GDOW can travel well below 2009 price levels. If we end up with a Primary degree flat, then this would help my case but it sure will destroy any potential 5 wave decline in Primary degree.
To put it mildly, I have never encountered a 9 year bear market rally before, and I think it’s a false assumption that we are in one. This blog is about finding “All” the 5 waves in a Cycle degree sequence, because without finding them first you will “Never” get into the brave new world of Supercycle degree.
To put it very bluntly, if wave analysts start off looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree, then those analysts think they are in SC degree already.
I will not make the GDOW wave count a regular thing, but it deserves watching when a new bearish bottom has arrived.