I spent several hours looking at 3-4 very popular wave analysts, to see what their largest degree is that they are working. This is always a very painful experience for me because they practice, “Cosmetic Elliott Wave Counting methods”. They smear the charts with all sorts of price and wave positions to a point it seems like they are conducting a Smoke and Mirrors operation.
They can make a few cosmetic changes and they will always come out being right. Sure, I don’t always know what positions we may be at any one time, but I sure do know what doesn’t fit. Without a doubt they are very bullish with one wave count showing Cycle degree wave 1-2 for the 2015 correction.
One wave analysts have the 2009 bottom, as a wave 2 in SC degree??? Not on your life, as there was a SC degree wave 1-2 crash and bear market in 1929-1932 already.
Just because it’s a big and tall bull market, does not mean we should jack up the degree levels. We have to do the exact opposite.
When markets extend either in the wave 3 or wave 5 positions, it’s always the smaller degree levels that come out of hiding, not the big degree levels.
All the wave counting with mini or micro mini degree levels, is useless if we miss the biggest bull market since the depression. Any wave count that is in sympathy with the bullish herd at these extremes will never work.
This Midcap chart has a very good wave formation, producing a tall 2007 peak. Also the 2009 bottom never went as deep as the SP500 and the DJIA did. At the 400 price level, we have what would be a massive base, that could last one hundred years into the future. Markets love to fool analysts so just to prove me wrong, the Midcaps will go lower than 400.
Everybody on this planet already knows that stocks are at record highs, what they don’t know is how big and long the impending bear market in stocks can be.
One of the worst SC degree declines in stock market history only took 3 years to play out, so it sure is not going to take sum mythical 600 years this time. The start of solar cycle #25 will make sure another bull market will come. Betting against the power of the sun, or creating super bearish wave counts with the start of any Solar cycle will never work.
Wave counts from the past have all started from a 4th wave base which can’t really happen, as a multi generational 5th wave will never exist for that long. Any 5th wave is always fundamentally much weaker than any wave 3 of the same 5 wave sets.
I’m anticipating a Cycle degree bear market which will unfold in stages. For starters, this Midcap chart will decline/crash to the 1200 price range first. After that, the 700 price level would be the next price target for the impending Cycle degree 4th wave.
The Gold/Midcap ratio is sitting at 1.48:1 which is on the extreme side of things already.
Investors are pouring record amounts of money into stocks
Average investors are pouring money into record high stock markets, which is actually a contrarian bearish signal. Investors love to buy “High” because they sure weren’t buying low in 2009. They were selling low in a panic to get out, which I’m very sure will happen over and over at every major low we will ever run across.
Investors pouring into stocks is not smart money moving in, as smart money has already moved out with insider selling. Fool’s rushing in where wise men fear to tread is very normal. Buying on the 5% dips will not work if we get a 70% correction. We could end up with the mother of all dips, yet very few will ever take advantage of a crash bottom.