Nasdaq Intraday Bearish Review

The Nasdaq was rolling over in July already which works like a diagonal starting out. If we’re lucky the patterns will smooth out a bit but that may also be wishful thinking at this point.

With there being a potential Cycle degree correction (Bear Market) the markets have a long way to go before we could expect a return to a real bull market.

This may not happen until solar cycle 25 dominates sunspot activity.  Our present little rally looks like another bearish rally and if that is true then the 7400 and 7200 price level will not hold.

The 7000 price level is another potential price target for some more support but eventually, the 7000 price level will not hold as well.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio got better at 5 but is still a far cry from being the cheapest of 1.18.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio doesn’t have to go that cheap but it sure would help to see the ratio get better than 3:1.

The commercials for the Nasdaq are net short but not by any extreme amount. The speculators have the opposite side of this deal as they are all pile onto the long side. Both parties can’t be right so sooner or later one side is going to panic.

 

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Quick Nasdaq Intraday Review

July 16, looks like the last record high and since then the Nasdaq has made some wild moves that could be the start of a new trend.  Lower highs are not yet visible or long enough but all it takes is one more new record low which can get investors into a mini panic.

Antitrust investigations can get investors nervous as the stories are out that the SEC has officially started investigations of the “FANG” stocks.

Some analysts are very bullish on stocks as we hear stories about a melt-up is coming. Any potential melt-up is pretty hard to swallow at this time as it would start at world record highs. A melt-up from this point is next to impossible as the Gold/Nasdaq ratio is already super expensive at 5.6.

Commercials are net short but yet not quite extreme enough.

We are getting closer and closer to the fall and the fall time period can produce some ugly melt-downs.

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Nasdaq 100 E-Mini: 2000-2019 Wedge Review

Without a doubt, the Nasdaq marches to a different drummer as the 2007 peak never reached new record highs as most other indices did during that rally. For now, the pattern from the 2000 peak to the 2009 bottom can work as a zigzag but it would have to be a “Running Zigzag”  or what the book calls “Truncated”.

The 2009 bottom is still my Primary degree bottom followed by a blistering bull market. Drawing the trend line across the two tops and one trend line up from the 2009 bottom, what do we end up with?

We have the mother of all “Rising Wedges” starting to squeeze the two trends into the cone or “Apex” of the wedge. What do you think will happen when the stock bulls keep getting squeezed into a corner? I will include the link from Investopedia that has a good explanation regarding “Rising Wedges”. 

All investors are distracted with the fundamentals while the “Big Wedge” is giving us a very bearish warning.

I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction but the Nasdaq has no short term support that I can see at this time. Above all the impending bearish phase should be obvious but the crowd may not know until they see it in hindsight. A lot of good that does us unless we take “Hindsight” and always turn it into “Foresight”. The simple answer is that if we ignore the financial past we are doomed to repeat it. All sources of better fitting wave counts are found in “Hindsight” not by flipping our present wave counts thousands of times.

We still have time before solar cycle 24 ends so hang onto your hat, as the winds can change direction and start blowing in from the North West!

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Update

The huge Head&Shoulder pattern now stands out very well as the Nasdaq started to implode in the first part of May.  In a wild and wooly bull market, the right shoulder would never hold and in this case, the Nasdaq has already declined far enough to create some serious damage to investors portfolios.

I think trillions of dollars have been wiped off the books already and I’m sure more will still go up in a puff of electronic smoke.  We have until about June 21 when this contract month has to move to the September month which can cause some more convulsions that few are expecting.

I’m expecting a Cycle degree correction with an Intermediate degree bottom still very far away.  If the December bottom is true as an Intermediate degree bottom then we can visualize where my new “A” wave may come in at. This would be close to the 5800 price level.

I’m sure the stock bulls will offer their life so that the bears can have a great barbecue this summer.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Update

The Nasdaq finally created a new world record high today at 7715.  In the next day or so it still could push higher which would make the present spike a bit longer. The longer the spike the better as that usually indicates a longer impending correction.  Correction? It all depends on how big any impending correction will be.

If all this bullish hype is going to continue then we should be just looking for a correction, right?  The other side of the coin is that this bull market is coming to an end at a double top creating a big H&S at the same time.

A temporary correction would just create the “Right Shoulder” but then blast to another new record high.  The 2019 rally was one vertical move as good subdivisions were hard to count out as it’s loaded with diagonal waves.

Easter will be a full moon so by next week it could get very interesting.

Commercials are barley net short so they don’t really confirm any bearish scenario I can come up with, but that also means this market can go in any direction.  All it takes is some “Bad News” from any source in the world and the emotional investors could run for the hills.

Protective sell stops are stacking up below present prices, mostly around the bull market bottoms of corrections.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is more of an objective look at stocks if they are cheap or expensive when compared to the US dollar gold cash price.  My record expensive ratio is 6.38:1, today this ratio sits at 6.03:1. The Nasdaq is about as expensive as it has ever been, so it sure would be ripe for a major correction.

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Near Record Highs

The Nasdaq is getting close to new record highs which would soon be a double top, as well as an H&S pattern being set up.   I extended the past for now which will allow the Nasdaq to break to new record highs.

Right shoulders would have to break out in a very bullish fashion, but if this is still a diagonal bearish rally then the right shoulder would produce resistance.

Other indices are not this close to breaking out so the Nasdaq would be marching to a different drummer again.

It seems nothing is stopping this bull market at this time, but we also know that “Bad News” can come out of nowhere and blindside all those investors that are bullish.

The COT reports for the Nasdaq are just about even which offers no special insight as to any new direction.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has backed off from record-breaking ratios and sits at 5.82:1 this morning.  This is cheaper than the 6.38:1 record established on September 5th, 2018. The Nasdaq is still very expensive when we use gold as money.

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Nasdaq Intraday Buy On The Dip?

In my opinion, buying into anything that has gone vertical will turn into a disaster because we don’t know how big any dip is going to be. Everybody on the planet thinks this market is going to soar and maybe it will.

If this market is still going to add another super leg to it, then this market has to show or develop something that can clearly work as a correction. That is always a tough call since nothing screws up a wave count worse than another diagonal decline.

So far the Nasdaq has made its last dash to the upside a day after the full moon has arrived which doesn’t happen too often.  March is always a good turning month and we have about 6 trading days left before the end of the month.

If this decline keeps going then the chances get dramatically reduced that a new record high is going to happen in the next week.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is at 5.76:1, which is down from 6.38:1 and still nowhere in being cheap when compared to gold.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Review

Since late 2018 the Nasdaq has created a bottom and has been on a bullish move that is hard to imagine that it could still be in a bear market rally.  Only time can give us an answer and at this time there still is a good chance that a new record high is going to be established. If that is the case then the right side should eventually push that flat line up.

A right shoulder in a bull market would push much higher again, but if a bearish turn awaits us then the right shoulder would just crash.  I would give that right shoulder about a 50-60% price retracement and after that, a complete bull market failure can still happen.

At the beginning of bull markets, right shoulders fail to hold back the bears most of the time, but when we are closer to the end of a bullish phase, the right shoulder is less likely to hold.

Last week the Market Vane report showed that on the 12th  there were 68% bulls present. That is down from a 24 month high of 91%.  The more bulls present in the survey the less chance of a big bunch of stock bulls still to come in.  Of course, the only way the bullish herd can push it higher is if they just came out of a secret tunnel they’ve been hiding in. 🙂

God knows the world has been on a massive tunnel digging spree, maybe there is a big group of stock bulls living in the Center of the Earth!

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is always at work and you won’t find any ratio in your analytical toolbox. The Gold/Ratio of anything always gives us a reading when something is expensive or cheap when compared to a Troy ounce of gold, in US dollars.

A cheap reading once was 1.18:1 and my most expensive reading was 6.38:1. Today the Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 5.61:1 which still makes the Nasdaq very expensive.

 

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Nasdaq Intraday Record High Update

Just a quick Nasdaq update this morning as I think another major turning is near. The speed that stock bulls have returned is very impressive, and other analysts have noticed it as well.  Even though the markets look bullish, they can fool us because they are just big bear market rallies.

Investors forget, don’t care or were not old enough to experience the 2007-2009 decline, but investors bought in at the peaks as well.  So far it is nice to see a potential turning into another new month, which could turn February very bearish. In simple terms, bear market rallies always retrace themselves, back to the point of origin of December 2018! Any price dip below 5800 will work, but the Nasdaq will not just stop dead in its tracks, but March could end up being very bullish again. Lack of data is haunting the markets as even farmers are temporarily blinded due to back-log economic data. The problem with all that fundamental data (news) is that much of it is lagging and or manipulated.

Investors were surprised that the rate hikes may be taking a “pause”, but investors can take that as bad news, as a recession followed everytime they paused.  Sure, many tech companies surged but Facebook doesn’t justify its move at all. FB developed a huge gap to the upside, and any gap has a 90% chance of getting filled. Since my Facebook account got hacked a few months back, I have started to reduce my digital footprint.

Apple has security concerns with its Facetime app and it seems that all smartphones are just spying tools.

Another bearish reason is the Gold/Nasdaq ratio. At 6.38:1 it’s an expensive ratio.  This morning it was 5.25:1. There’s a long way to go down before the Nasdaq and other indices become cheap again.

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Nasdaq Bull Market Or Bear Rally?

So far the markets have refused to die, as they keep on ticking and heading higher. Many are convinced the correction is over and higher highs are coming. Dynamic bullish moves like this happen in bear market rallies frequently and most of the time they never last that long as well.  From a Cycle degree perspective, every bear market rally gets retraced which in the Nasdaq started from the 5900 price level.   Any move below this 5900 price level would confirm that our present rally was just another fake.

If investors are getting fooled with just a Minor degree bullish move then there is little hope in convincing anyone that there are Primary degree bear market rallies.

The SP500, DJIA and the Midcaps all seem to match this Nasdaq rally on the intraday scale, which I think is a bear market rally. The Nasdaq has dipped into the previous wave 2 which automatically makes it a diagonal pattern. The Nasdaq has already backed off but another short spike may still turn up.

The COT reports are unreliable until after the government goes back to work. This is when the gold ratio database is helpful how expensive or cheap the markets are when we always calculate using the futures gold cash price.  My new record for the Gold/Nasdaq ratio was 6.38:1, and today it is at 5.1:1. This is a bit cheaper but still on the extreme expensive side. Cheap was 1.18:1, so I would like to see a 3:1 or even a 2:1 ratio.

 

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Cycle Degree Crash Update.

All support for 2018 has now vanished with nothing but empty space below. It’s not completely empty as there are always some protective stops below. I’m sure that many are looking to get-out as the majority of analysts now call it a bear market. It’s always easy to call something in hindsight, but that is always too late.  We are going to find out if the current crop of talking heads can pick the next strong bottom.

We still have a long way to go even thought we are getting some great looking spikes to the downside. It all looks good as a 5 wave run in Minor degree. Usually about 3 sets of 1-2 wave show up but the rest may never be seen as they are just to small. Right now I have 3 sets showing after wave 2 in Minor degree, so we should start to run into ending wave 3s. A quick scan of the commercial positions has not switched to the positive at this time but the spread is shrinking.

From 1987 to the January 2018 peak we have what is part of the 30-year cycle +1 year. I’m sure readers or investors want clarity but it’s the job of the markets to always confuse the majority every step of the way.  The easiest group to fool are the modern wave analysts that have never experienced the 2008 crash and have never gone back in history to do their homework.

An example is the 2018 market that contains an expanded pattern. Not a single wave expert seems to see the same pattern, and ignoring this type of  top will screw up the wave count forever. An expanded top gives us a huge look into the future that is hard to imagine at this time. The short version is that no matter how deep the entire bear market will get, eventually the market in question will rise and surpass the expanded part!  For an example, if the Nasdaq ended just below 2000 then I would have no hesitation in calling that the Nasdaq will eventually go above 8000!

Mind you that could take several decades to accomplish. It may take into 2019 before we see a strong bottom in Primary degree, after which I will turn very bullish. When you see any wave analyst produce a wave 1-2 in Primary degree, you instantly know that these analysts are in a much higher degree than “all” the work on this blog.

All the components inside the Nasdaq are taking big hits with Apple being a prime example. I’m sure Warren Buffet is scratching his head as his investment in Apple gets shredded.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio was at 4.8:1 today which is down from the extreme of 6.38:1 in September.

 

Commercials are net short but not by that much. This will change in the months ahead as they switch to long positions.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart 2018 Review

 

The November bottom and the following rally have now charged to the upside, which no longer fits into the wave 2 bullish move I did have. An instant wave count review should always be done if Minor degree moves cannot provide the confidence to trade it. This would only be a Minute degree run, but that would be enough to screw-up a wave count for life. This would be an expanded pattern, with the SP500 and the DJIA looking about the same.

Do all those emotional investors deserve a Santa rally? Not from my perspective they don’! Investors do absolutely, “Nothing”, as stock prices start turning green again. The hardest investors work, is lifting their fingers and pressing the mouse button. Of course, in today’s world, they need Artificial Intelligence (A.I) to do basically the same thing.

Some say investors deserve more, due to the risk they take. What a pile of BS that is, as investors back in 1984 took all the risk.

Many good mainstream analysts are also mentioning the Death Cross on many of the indices I cover, and this Nasdaq is no exception. The 50-day is ready to kiss the 200-day MA  which is also the Kiss Of Death” for a bull market. Anyone that stays invested or brushes off the importance of a technical indicator like a Death Cross, will get hit hard. It will be worse for all those individuals who are getting ready to retire. I think many investors have no clue how big the world tech bubble has become as I see it as a Cycle degree peak and not just a short-term correction.

I do track the Gold/Nasdaq ratio and today it sits at 5.7:1 which is extremely expensive when it takes 5.7 Troy ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq 100. A cheap ratio would be 1.18 so there is a massive amount of adjusting that still needs to happen. You don’t want stocks at fair value as that is ridiculous, only crushed stock index prices make a good investment.

All the markets need is some “bad” numbers reported and this happy investor mood can turn sour pretty quick.

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Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Update

 

On this daily chart, the Death Cross is still going to happen as the Nasdaq wanted nothing to do with the 50-day MA, and could not find support above the 200-day MA!  If the big bearish trend is true, then no amount of jaw-boning will turn the tide, even with the COT report below showing a small net long position. The bears will show us if they are in-control by taking out my wave 1 position Minor degree which still could happen this month.

My last Gold/Nasdaq ratio calculation was in early September 2018 what at that time registered the most expensive ratio of 6.38:1. It takes 6.38 gold ounces to but just one unit of the Nasdaq which blows the old record of 4.94 gold ounces by a long shot.  Cheap would be 1.18, so there is a long way to go before this Nasdaq becomes cheap again. The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has been hitting a brick wall a the 6:1 range, so that is a usually a big clue that this market is far too expensive to be a good long-term investment at this time.

This is only a very small net long position with this COT report, which is nothing to get excited about especially when this is one of the only long indices I have.

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NASDAQ Plunge Update!

 

This is the December contract which shows better when I use line type settings, but it also changes many of the wave positions.  At the top could be my first wave 1-2 in Minute degree which would make the October rally as the potential 4 waves in Minute degree which brings us to a potential wave one in Minor degree. I will need to make adjustments as this bearish phase develops, as there is more than one index that shows a high wave 1-2 pattern. Nvidia Corp has crashed over $100 already as demand for Bitcoin mining has faded fast. Fear of just about anything is pushing the markets down, besides the Fed is creating a worldwide, liquidity issue.

The Midcaps are much further along the slippery slope already and they may also be ready for another rally. Short term I may be a bit bullish but longer term a huge bear market is coming if we like it or not!

What really irks me is that the talking heads are saying to stay in the markets for the long term. This is nonsense if age is not taken into account. Many boomers that were invested in 2007 got wiped out and many have never recovered. Even early Gen X start to retire in 2029, and many will never have enough time to recoup up to 70% losses!

You can check your older relatives and I bet few if any can say, “Yes I retired at the top of the stock market with my mutual funds intack”.

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Nasdaq Intraday Chart Crash Update!

 

The Nasdaq peaked 3 days ago and since then the Nasdaq has reversed, and is now heading south. Any new record high can always be the “Last” record high for the year. This would be a “B” wave peak in Intermediate degree which is part of an expanded pattern for Cycle degree wave 3.  I will keep these updates a bit short, but all my indiceies I cover seemed to have turned south in the last few days. The bears attack from above, as fundamantals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes. In general, markets act to the opposite of fundamentals, as the majority all tried to bail out in late 2009. The majority cannot see crashes or bull markets coming, but with the huge “Boomer” demographic shift in effect, you can bet there will be deflation on our future. This will take until 2022, when I expect Cycle degree wave 4 to bottom, which is the same length of time the markets crashed for in the 1929 and 1932 bear markets.

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Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Cycle Degree Wave 3 Review

 

Since my last update I had to move my “C” wave in Minor degree up as I was still early by a week or so. The last peak was September, 3, 2018 at the 7720 price level. The real peak where I have to count from, was way back in January of 2018.  I’m sure we can hear the crying how I can’t count this way, but I see so many of these that ignoring them is not an option.  It is the “C” wave that gives it away, and we have to wait until the end of the month to see if the Nasdaq 7720 price level holds.

In a fit of madness stops or options get triggered which still could spike the Nasdaq higher, but I think the markets are running on fumes. Just scanning all the commercial COT report positions, there are vertualy no net long positions anywhere. Painting a bullish picture in stocks, will show you how the majority of wave analsyts can fall into the “mood trap” just like any other human does.

See all that empty space below our present high? What do you think is down there? Nothing but PUT options and protective sell stop orders, and when they get hit, all those bulls will turn into instant bears.

Stocks also follow the 30 year cycles but they sure can crash together like they did in 2008!

The “C” wave decline in Intermediate degree could be fairly steep but will only be obvious after it has formed.  The Nasdaq is the odd ball here as it seems to have pushed this “C” wave further than all the others. This will be last of the Internet bubbles in a long time, as the internet has matured and we don’t need to invent a new smart phone.

Readers have to make up their own minds if things are, “Different This Time”. Sure it’s different, but so was 1929, 1987, 2ooo, and 2007! Take our 2018 peak and count back 89 years and we get 1929! Ignoring the 30 year inflationary and deflationary cycles is not an option. T-Bonds have a 120-year cycle that started in 1981. (two 60-year Cycles).

We also have a rising wedge which every technical analsyt knows about, but only a few have the confidence to read them.

Once this turns then things can speed up, as panic will take control of the crowd, and no more record highs are produced. Add 3 years to our January peak and we coud see a bottom by 2022, so buckle up and watch all the bullish investment prices evaporate and disappear.

Gold, silver are pushing higher so money leaving stocks can flow into gold stocks in a flash, if the GDX holds it’s price level.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Impending Death Cross Update!

The odds that the main indices also contain an expanded pattern is to hard to ignore. The “C” wave decline can be very steep and it would travel faster as well. Again, protective sell stops are piling up underneath every price support, and a quick count tells us we have about 5 legs that have to get retraced.

We still have a long way to go before the Death Cross is made in the Nasdaq as the crossings all travel in alternating sequences. After a Golden Cross comes a Death Cross, which forecasts a long term bearish decline to come. I have an in-house “pool” of futures Death Crosses which is just one of my 8 main indicators or tools that I use. Another main in-house pool consisting of all my gold/ratios is also another one of the 8 indicators I use.  I call them my “aces” in my hand, and if I only have 1-2 aces that give a clear signal then this is not nearly enough to justify a move.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 6.19:1 which is far more expensive than the 4.94:1 extreme that I once measured.

My Market Vane report is another “Ace” but this will run out soon. Market Vane shows that 76% bulls were present for last week. This has dropped down from a 24 month high of 91% bulls. 91% bulls is an extreme from any perspective, which means there is nobody left to get in.

Markets are twice as expensive now than they were in 2000 as the Warren Buffet indicator confirms. The entire world is sitting on impending Death Crosses so I only see downside potential for the rest of this year. It could take all of 2018, to show the damage that bears can cause but then all of 2019 coud be very bullish for stocks and gold again.

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NASDAQ: World Record Intraday High Update

The Nasdaq, so far has topped out at 7486 and has now started another small correction or the Nasdaq stock party could be over. From here on any record high could be the last record high for 2018. A few are figuring out that this market is doomed no matter how much they spin the bull shit (BS) that it is a good time to invest. There is a huge deflationary crash and bear market coming that only a few might understand.  When stock prices deflate, and the gold price crashes together then this is a deflationary crash.

This has all happened before and even recently depending on if you can remember the 2008 crash.  For about 8 months “everything” crash together ending at a bottom for gold in late November. Stocks bottomed in March 2009. The exact same forces are at work, where we are in the exact same position as the early 2008 top was.

This time in Cycle degree, stocks will join in with gold, but far more syncronized in the length of time. In otherwords, they can all crash together until gold crashes below $500 again. Mention $500 gold to a gold bug, and they lose it.  There are only a few big Nasdaq names that are still pushing the Nasdaq higher, so those 5 big names would be critical to watch for early exhaustion or speed deceleration. The choppy waves are there, the commercial traders have large short positions on the Nasdaq while the speculators are skewed to the long side.

Does it look like the commercials are jumping for joy and in a bullish position? No, the red at the bottom are the commercial short positions, while the lite bar graph on the top represents the large speculator long positions. It is the large speculators that are always wrong at the extremes, except the talking heads always talk about what the speculators are doing not what the commercial dealers are doing.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio also supports my bearish views as today it sits at a 6.1:1 ratio, which is the most expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio I have ever calculated.

I guess it is also a good time, to post a very professional description of the warning signs of a market top.

 

 

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NASDAQ Hits New Intraday Record High!

This morning the Nasdaq pushed to a new world record high at just over 7301. The way the Nasdaq has been soaring the bullish traders are seeing some gains. To capture those gains traders have to sell or close off their trades. Of course the markets will do it for them as they will panic once a reversal starts to take place. We need more to tell us that this party is over. That may take until the February bottom of 6300 is completely retraced, as some little correction will not do anything.

I have to keep my updates short this morning but will try to update more later today.

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NASDAQ Intraday Rally Update

So far the Nasdaq keeps pushing higher and I would like to see it go a bit more and completley clear my previous wave 3 peak in Minuette degree. Any price above 7000 would help to complete this 5 wave run. After every 5 wave sequence a trend change is due, and how big the next move will be depends on what that 5 wave sequence is attached to. In this case the 5 wave sequence could be ending a wave 2 peak in Minor degree which would retrace the entire April/May bullish phase. All 2018  price support bottoms will get retraced,  if this rally is just another bear market rally.  All other indices are also gyrating and having difficulties in going higher.  With crude oil crashing, its just a matter of time before all the other markets start to join in. In 2008 everything crashed together including all the oil and gold-related assets, which sure seems to be the same set-up now happening in 2018.

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NASDAQ Mini Rally Update

The Nasdaq will always give us the gears as it seems to walk to a different drummer at times. The potential Cycle degree wave 3 peak did not peak until early March.  The recent pattern suggests another correction is in effect with a little 4th wave in Minuette degree just completing this morning. The markets could implode as well as it seems to be a Gold/Oil/ USD/stock connection running. In the 2008 crash everthing joined in the bearish decline, so there is nothing to stop it from happening again this year.

Buying on the dips will just get you killed, as the majority have no clue in how big this impending bear market will get. All price support to 6200 must get retraced and that is just to get us warmed up for the bigger bearish phase that still needs to follow. The majority are all in the bullish trap as they practice, “no sell high” strategy. Only a very small percentage of contrarians have this skill and experience of buying low and they need lots of time to put their capital to work. Until insiders show a clear track record of them buying their own shares back, this market will go down sooner than it shoots to new record highs again.  When companies practice a, “buy back” program then this is usally a bad sign as it throws away cash at extreme tops, and it’s a desperate attempt to keep their stock prices high. Buying their own shares back with company profits is also a clear sign they know not what to do with their company cash pile.  The same happens when they start paying dividends, paying dividends is also a sure sign that the company has no ideas or projects, and when the do pay dividends that company also starts to decline.  Only the rich can play this game, as they are the only ones that can afford these prices in the first place.  Any average Joe or Jane will get wipped out if they follow the herd and try and beat the markets.

If you play the same game as the majority do, then our end results will also be what the majority get.  The last greatest fool will be left holding paper that is falling in price, with many buyers nowhere near to be seen. Only the emotional traders are left playing this game, and they are the first to bail out when they start to see red in their invesment accounts.

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NASDAQ Intraday Review

The Nasdaq had a very different time period for a major peak which was hidden or masked by the bearish attention to the DOW and SP500.   Any Nasdaq wave count is not clear at this point as we still have too many wild gyrations. Summer is coming on which can produce very bearish moves. We do have to respect the Nasdaq as it can keep on giving us the gears in the short term.

From late April the Nasdaq has now only produced a 3 wave run, as wave 4 is still missing from this action. I switched to line type chart but it also changes the wave patterns, producing different wave counts all the time. In the short term I will be doing some cosmetic wave counting, but eventually the trend will start to smooth out, and when it heads south it will help to confirm a bigger bearish phase is in effect. Recent Commercial trader report does not show an extreme bearish situation, but more of a small bullish situation. This could turn more bullish as the real decline shows it’s true colors.

It makes no sense to spend so much time in intraday scale as for long periods of time nothing can happen. Nobody can take advange of intraday scale wave counts. It might take a week before a new posting is read 4-5 times, by that time it’s to late to take advantage of it.  The big and best moves happen at the daily and weekly chart scales when the majority are all “forced”  to switch directions.

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Nasdaq Intraday Bullish Review

The Nasdaq has been on a wild bullish phase the seems to have no end. Since the April bottom any impulse pattern we did have fell apart rather quickly. The Nasdaq may be getting ready to correct.and it can overlap right down to the bottom trend line.  I have many different wave counts in 5 of the stock markets I cover and it will take time to sort out.  A three wave rally is just starting to complete and it’s when I would suspect a correction, or even an ending.

The Cycle degree wave 3 position I do have, may still get evicted. At this time I’m not happy with any of my short term wave counts as it will take some time to sort out.  When all support (4 spikes) going back to February breaks down then we may have a better pattern to work with.

I’m not going to spend too much time on this as there still are too many alternates I can come up with.  I never try and post 2-3 alternates in one chart as I try to work one of them at a time. It’s always a process of elimination one wave count after another, which takes time to play out or fail.

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Nasdaq Intraday Decline Update

The Nasdaq hit a major peak in March before it decided to crash again. I have conflicting tops between the Nasdaq and the other 4 major indices that I cover, but I think the Nasdaq top is the real deal, and the top is a good place to start a bearish count down from. Notice that I have a small H&S pattern already completed, and if we are still in the bullish phase, the Nasdaq will  lift the right side of the invisible horizontal line dramatically. I will still keep the present decline as a Minute degree declining 5 wave sequence,but will adjust later on if my degree level is too low.

If the bearish scenario is true, then all popular support levels will get trashed.  Those that are talking about buying the dips don’t realize how big, “The Big Dip” will get.  At a bare minimum the Nasdaq will retrace the 4000  price level, which also puts the Nasdaq into the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

One lesser degree in a Cycle degree correction is a Primary degree, not the Intermediate degree bottom at the 4000 price level.  We have a long way to go with many twists and turns, but sooner or later the fog will clear and the basic shape of 3 simple corrections will take place. The triangle is my last choice as the solar cycle #25 will not allow it to fully play out. When solar cycle #25 starts to crank up, then all stock bears and bearish wave counts will get terminated.

Sure the bottom may still be three years away (2021) and the investors at that bottom will be the ones that have lots of dry gunpowder ready. (Cash)

Buying low at a market bottom is rarely done by the average investor, as they will be wiped during the “Big Dip” decline.

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Nasdaq Intraday Bullish Phase Update!

When markets go up the expert analysts turn bullish, and when the markets are heading down then they turn bearish. No matter what the direction they will find you a reason explaining why. The Nasdaq contains the biggest elephants in the room which suggests very large companies. I think elephants are pretty small compared to some of these “FANG” stocks which are more the size of the biggest T-Rex!  In January of 2018, all the indices recorded world record highs, never matched in financial history. This bull market top calls for a correction that nobody expects, with some analyst getting suspicious as to the staying power of this bull market.

The Nasdaq bearish phase has only started more than a month ago, so in order to help confirm a major bear market is coming, all major markets have to crash to new record  lows again.  Price is only important to the majority, but from an EWP perspective pattern is far more important. Yes, I use price projections as well, but you will see no prices posted in my charts.

Another little pop is still possible, but the declining pattern will be important to see that it contains no corrective moves. A grinding summer bearish phase would suit me fine, but only time will prove that true.

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Is Nasdaq Friday 13th Bad Luck?

End of the week, new moon, Friday 13th and a rising wedge doesn’t help in reinforcing a bullish outlook. This week the markets struggled trying to make headway and the rising wedge shows it.  This may only be a Minute degree wedge, but there are Cycle degree wedges as well.  When a falling Wedge develops, then this can turn into a very bullish reversal. Of course, if we abuse these wedges, then they lose their importance and meaning. Most of the Wedges are bear market related so any Cycle degree wave 3 top to a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom would be a Cycle degree Wedge. Just about every crash in history showed one type of a wedge. The 1937 to 1942 Cycle degree wedge is a prime example what large degree wedges can do.

The initial rally that started last week can be counted as a wave 1 but this is also a typical “A” wave move in zigzags. So far the high peak could contain an expanded flat so I will have to flip back and forth between two patterns until the bigger pattern becomes more clear. As rough as some patterns are when starting out, they do have a tendency to clear up after a while.

When the markets have crossed the line from a bull market to a “huge” bearish phase traders have to change all their thinking instantly. Obviously we are far from that situation as market bulls have just called a market correction bottom. Just goes to show that the majority of experts still think they are on the bullish side of this market.

In a bear market good news no longer pushes the markets to new record highs, the opposite happens at the end of a bearish move when bearish market news no longer pushes markets lower. With small counter rallies, this is much harder to detect, but if we are not looking then it makes little difference, as we would be in another bear trap.

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Mini Nasdaq Intraday Bullish Phase update.

The Nasdaq has been marching to a different drummer again,  and in the last 5-6 trading days the Nasdaq has been in a bullish phase. I would love to see the Nasdaq break out a bit higher and as I post it seems to be doing that. Any of these inverted zigzags can turn into a running pattern, which many may call a “Truncation”. There are lots of examples out where zigzags are cut short, but I will call them a running pattern before I call any “Truncation”. There will be constant adjusting that I will be doing until the bigger trend becomes more clear. The Nasdaq peaked last month and if the bigger trend is in place, then that peak of the Nasdaq will be the high price point of 2018.(7200) No more record highs for a very long time.

In a bull market, we get consistently higher lows which are Elliott Wave, 3 wave patterns. This process works in reverse as well as a bear market will produce consistent lower lows and lower highs.  Since the March peak that is exactly what the Nasdaq and others have been doing. Jawboning a bear market back into a bull market will not work, except on a short term basis. Once this present rally starts to wear thin, then we should see all the markets make new lows again.

Many are complaining about how volatile the markets have been, as they have never seen so much volatility! All I can say is “get used to it” as that is what happens when markets start to make a big trend change. Those that are already out can sit back and watch this market crash, until it becomes over sold again.

Any big forecast how deep a bear market can go is depended on what degree of a peak the markets are all at. So far they expected just a 10% correction, but now this number is changing as well. Some are now calling for a 40% correction, but a 60% correction number has also been used. All the forecasts in the world for a bear market bottom will mean nothing, if we don’t know what’s going to happen after the bear market finishes.

At a minimum the Nasdaq has to retrace the 4000 price level first, and this may only be a temporary resting spot until another leg down starts.

Bull markets end when nobody expects them to end just like bear markets will end when nobody expects them to end. This has happened so many times in financial history that it will not be any different this time. When it comes to the stock markets human emotions never change as fear, joy and greed  has been around since the caveman days.  A new generation of investors do not do any homework in studying financial history, and many of them didn’t even experience the bear market of 2008, so those investors are in for a big surprise.

Mark Zukerberg’s testimony increased his net worth by 3 billion dollars during the time he sat in his chair, while social media supported Zukerberg!  In the long run Facebook is still besieged with problems like the majority of tech companies are having at this time.

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Nasdaq Weekly Chart 2000-2018 Review

One of the most powerful patterns that we can find is what they call a “Wedge” in conventional technical analysis. A wedge can have a rising bottom and a falling top which eventually compresses the chart after which it has no choice but to explode and then soar.  The earliest we may have spotted this wedge , and take advantage of it, is in late 2008.  Sure, it’s all in hindsight, but unless we know what a wedge is we will never look for them in the first place.

For many years I have grappled with the 2000-2002 decline as it looked so much like an impulse, but this impulse did not fit anywhere. Maybe because it was not an impulse, but part of a triangle decline, ending with a running “E” wave. Running flats are common, and even zigzags do contain shortened “C” wave. I don’t like to call waves “truncated” as that is an excuse to not count anything. From my perspective the DJIA from 1937 to 1942, contained a wedge that forecast the huge Cycle degree wave 3 which may have ended March, 13, 2018.  I also have several large scale wedges that all indicate a huge bull market will come in the future.  Sure, I can change the wave count, but in the end this wedge will remain for all of financial history.

I only use parallel lines and I use the top rising trend as my base, then I create the same angle from the record bottom of early 2009.  The top trend line contains 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, so when the Nasdaq crashes and takes out the bottom trend line I also will be moving by a minimum of one degree. Cutting the bottom trend line I would also be finishing a potential Intermediate degree correction.  The 4000 price level  is not deep enough, if we need a 3 wave, Primary degree correction.

The gullible are brainwashed to buy on the dips and last month saw another huge one week share buying madness!

Investors just pumped the most money ever into stock funds for 1 week

You have to ask, “Buying on the dips for what?” Once a new low has been established, then all those “Dip” buyers will start to lose their capital base. All present dip buyers clearly tell us that they think that they are in a bull market. They think that another huge bear market will never come as that is old ancient history. The majority of investors never take the time to do historical research and most of them believe the brainwashing going on at market peaks.

The majority of all wave analysts have been brainwashed into believing this SC and GSC myth, but since the 2000 peaks this has never been confirmed by anyone. Since the dotcom bust in 2000, there  has “Never”  been a set of 5 declining waves in Primary degree. Only the Nasdaq looks like it has a set, and it doesn’t fit into any zigzag.

The Nasdaq hit a 2018 high of about 7200, and this is also the time I look for the highest peak of the year. The short version is that investors will not benefit from buying on the dips this year, and it may take over ten years before they ever break even again. They may have to wait until the “Roaring 2020s” arrive.

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Nasdaq Intraday Crash: Showing Us The Way!

Do we still have lower highs since the peak of the Nasdaq?  That’s a trick question as we can get this in any decline! Because the Nasdaq broke to a new record low at bullet train speeds, We could get a violent reaction but 5 waves pointing in a direction is telling us there is more downside to come. The other indices will catch up, but small difference will happen, is when a big difference appears, then it always needs a second look. The Nasdaq  marched to a different drummer again, this time it was just to be the last index to top out.

There are only two trading days left this week, so more downside is an option, but wild swings will surprise us. This may all smooth out a bit more once the Nasdaq trend is more established.  Either way we are heading what the mainstream might call “critical support” will come at the 6300 price level. Critical support for what? A new phase in the stock bull market? I doubt it very much!

The only support important enough is the one just before stocks strike out into another 8 year bull market. Not until the majority hate stocks again will a new bull market hatch!  Now if only AMZN would crash! After a quick check  Amazon’s stock price peaked at $1617 and is now down $120. I will create an Amazon post, but also talk about the Gold/AMZN ratio.

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Nasdaq Also Having A Bad Hair Day!

The Nasdaq also carried on with its bearish decline which is dominated by the big four monsters called the” FANG” stocks.  FB is the worst and leading the way while FB, and GOOG may have completed their tops. AMZN is one stock that is still hanging on for dear life.

The Nasdaq is also on a different wave count, so out of the 5 I cover I have two wave counts that are dramatically different. In the end it may mean the difference of a few weeks when all indices start to bottom.  I have two downside breakout lines drawn out and each one can provide temporary support, but ultimately will not hold if the bigger bearish picture has taken hold. Total retracement below the 6200 price level would be required, but in a Cycle degree correction any bearish move will crush the markets. The majority will call it a bear market, but from a Cycle degree perspective, it’s just a correction, a “Big” correction.

Any market that has corrected in the past,  has always seen the markets push higher once the bull market resumes.

Ultimately the Nasdaq could fall below the 2011 lows, which is around the 2000 point level.

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