DJIA 2011-2019 Review

I’m a bit behind with my DJIA wave count as it has not pushed to record highs, at least not yet. These moves can frustrate any wave analysts, but ignoring them will not help them go away.

Since the 2018 peak, I had to go back and look for extensions that may have occurred. In this case, it’s the Minor and Minute degrees I extended, much as I did with the Nasdaq and SP500.

I also created a Minor degree 4th wave triangle, which would be a prime price target for some very strong price support in the future.

There are daily trading limits in the index futures, so it’s pretty hard for huge single crashes to develop as they did in 1929 or 1987.

It may still take all of April to play out, but eventually, the ending of Solar Cycle 24 will pull stock prices down, much like what happened at the tail end of 2018.

The Gold/DJIA ratio has changed little and is still around the 20.8:1 range, which is expensive by any stretch of the imagination when compared to the gold price.

 

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DJIA, Heading For A Triple Top?

Trying to find a decent wave count has been a challenge, to say the least, and I don’t see it getting any better.  At 26,700 the DJIA is getting near some major resistance, and if the markets have more bullish moves in them, then they could break out to new record highs again.

In the post, I looked for a potential triangle with a very deep “E” wave which still looks like a zigzag to me.   Any zigzag has very good odds that it can get completely retraced, which our present rally is just short of doing.

Last month saw a corrective drop (3 waves) followed by another 3 wave set which can be a small expanded pattern, which doesn’t fit into an “E” wave at this time.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is as expensive as it ever has been, hitting a price brick wall of 20.48:1, from an extreme of 21:1, established in August 2018.

An extreme expensive Gold/DJIA ratio, a triple top, and an inverse wedge or megaphone keep me looking for a bearish move, not some new bullish leg still destined to go to the moon.

If this wave count, lasts all of April I will be surprised as this market sure seems it has no rudder to help stear it.

A 3 month bull market needs a healthy correction or it sure is due one as the March correction isn’t big enough to do it.

 

 

 

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DJIA Daily Chart Death Cross Review

Since the December 26, 2018 crash low the DJIA exploded in an upward path that any sane wave counter would see five waves up and make a call that the Dow is heading to new record highs. Maybe?. The Death Cross at the 25,100 price level should give the stock bulls reason to pause as there is only a slim chance that a Golden Cross is still to come and even if a  Golden Cross did happen, it may only be a short-lived event.

Commercial hedgers are not all that deep with net short positions so counter rallies can happen.  I’m looking for a diagonal 5 waves down so another zigzag could play out, with the price traveling to a new record low.

Complete retracement will help to confirm that this stock rally was just another bear market rally.  This pushes any Primary degree “A” wave into the future and fear has a funny habit of creating mini-panics which can turbo charge any decline.

At 20:1 the Gold/DJIA ratio makes the DJIA still as expensive as ever so that alone keeps me from looking for bullish wave counts.

 

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DJIA Daily Chart Review

This DJIA is about the same as the SP500 in how far this bullish move has gone.  The DJIA still has a Death Cross below it even though the DJIA blasted right through both MA lines.  At 24,200 the 50-day MA might give the DJIA some support, but any correction could keep this Death Cross alive much longer.

The commercials don’t have a big bearish position, so this can give the DJIA a bit more wiggling room in the short term.

I’m not going to spent too much time on this update but the Gold/DJIA ratio is still near the extreme expensive side of 19.62, better than the 21:1 ratio I did have back in August 2018.  A cheap DJIA index would be 8:1 but that will not happen anytime soon.

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DJIA Bull Market Reality Check

In the last week, the DJIA and other markets have kept moving higher than what my wave count would allow. Our present rally that started after the December crash is looking too much like an impulse that is just now adding a spike to the upside.  We also have an H&S pattern forming, and if this bullish phase is going to continue to new record highs, then any right shoulder that will form will not last. Of course, the opposite would happen if this bullish phase is coming to an end.

I moved the Cycle degree wave 3 over, but that may be a temporary location only. Commercials are still short, but not all by that much so future bullish moves can still happen. When exploring a new wave count it can take months in that new position before the markets make or break it.

It may be hard to swallow that an expanded move can crash this deep, and I am pushing it to the limit. The mainstream analysts just love it as the markets recover from a bear market low and are now escaping this bear market. The market is also getting close to the 200-day MA, so we will see how much power the DJIA really has.

So far the USD, stocks, and gold have been in sync to some extent, so they can all crash together as well. It happened in 2008 and it can happen again. The Gold/DJIA ratio has pushed to 19.60:1 which is still an expensive extreme by any stretch of the imagination. Right after Presidents’ Day, the markets will be at a full moon, which can also produce devastating reversals. March has been famous for major reversals and in this case, it could send the markets south.

This market bullish move, if there is more to it, must at least produce a correction and retrace about 60% of this 2019 bullish move. If down the road a complete retracement develops, then we know our present market bullish moves was a bear market rally, from an Elliott Wave perspective.

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DJIA Intraday Update.

At this time it looks like the DJIA has peaked and the big question is are we heading into another correction or was this fantastic move just a bear market rally?  Rallies that travel at this speed always seem to run out of steam and then turn and head the opposite way. I show a Megaphone pattern which can happen in diagonal moves as well. The 4th wave rally traveling into the wave 2 positions is a dead give away that we are dealing with a diagonal run of 5 waves.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is down a bit from its extreme but yet still far too expensive. I would like to see our present Gold/DJIA ratio get chopped down to 14:1 before I get super bullish on the DJIA. Of course, many fund managers are frothing at the mouth as they, scream, “Buy the Dips”. DowJones_GoldPrice   Gives you an idea about others using the Gold/DJIA ratio over a bigger time period.

The stock market dip? Keep buying, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch

That might work for short term traders, but for a long term hold the DJIA is still going to get shredded.  If the Cycle degree peak is true, then at a bare minimum the DJIA would have to crash below 14,000. Others are as bearish as I am, and I’m sure many of the wave analysts are forecasting big bearish moves as well.

 

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Update

For well over a month the  DJIA has been defying gravity. We had another peak yesterday at the 28,400 price level which is also the right shoulder of an H&S pattern. That’s just one indicator that the markets are approaching bull market resistance. Technically, this 4th wave rally can handle more, as diagonal 4th waves can dip into the previous wave 2.   Right now the DJIA is in the midst of a 3 wave move, but two more can develop, pushing to another record high! Gold has also soared during the same time period and this morning gold was close to $1310.

The Gold/DJIA ratio has not changed much as the DJIA is still very expensive at 18.76:1. That is better than the 21:1 ratio we did get and a far cry from the cheap readings of 7.19:1.  Maybe if we are lucky more government reports will come out this Friday, Feb,1, that will include some COT reports. Since Friday would be a new month other economic reports will also come out. All this could produce some very violent moves with the cold winter blast grounding flights. Grounding planes will affect their earnings as well, which could take some time before they report.

Once it gets colder in Chicago than the Arctic, then you know it’s fricken cold out.

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DJIA 1978-2019 Bull Market Review

Looking back in time always gives us a different perspective if we take the time to actually do it.  I’ve done this thousand’s of times, and each time looking for a better fit.  The common question is, “How deep or low can the DJIA fall down to”?  Since the 2000 peak we’ve had more forecasts of the DJIA crashing well below 1000 many times and yet this has never happened. In 2009 the markets sure dipped to a new low and well below the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  The DJIA stopped dead in 2009, but nowhere near any previous 4th wave during the 1990’s stock mania.

The reason this has not happened is that all other wave counts are calculated as 5th wave extensions. I will stress the fact that it’s, “Impossiable”  for the EWP to create 5th wave extensions lasting 2 or even 3 generations.

The 2018  peak is a Cycle degree peak which eventually has to be fully corrected before another huge bull market in stocks will start. The public will call it a bear market and the big question may be, “How deep can the DOW fall”?  We have three important turning points, with the 2016 low being just one price area that we can see again. At a bare minimum, the DJIA should slip below the 14,000 price level. Longer term, any price low below 2011 lows, will get us closer to a bear market that is finishing.

This will not happen overnight as it will take as long as solar cycle #25 has not started.

The DJIA has made an impressive short term run that, at a minimum should give us another correction soon or the end of this bullish phase.

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DJIA Bull Market Update

There is a good chance that this DJIA bullish phase is coming to an end. Investors are all waiting for some miracle to happen to give them the green light to jump on board this rally. All it takes is some more “bad news” and this market can switch by selling. Beside that many stop-loss sell orders are piled up below present levels even when we can’t see them. There aren’t too many traders that can handle a 2500+ point decline in the DJIA.

In the long run in order for this rally to be confirmed as just another bear rally, the DJIA has to decline well below the 21,700 price level. With this government shutdown, economic data is rather scarce just like with all the COT reports.  About the only truths we have are the charts and those that don’t know any technical analysis are at a distinct disadvantage.

This market rally is just a Minor degree rally and many analysts are very bullish. Getting fooled by a Minor degree bullish phase will be worse once we start a potential Primary degree bear market rally.

“A” wave bottoms in Primary degree are “buy” signals and they should last a bit longer than just a few weeks. I think it’s impossible to have double expanded tops like what all wave analysts are trying to tell us. Most are looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree which has never happened in over 18 years, and it’s not going to happen this time. The reason they have never materialized is that we are nowhere near any SC or GSC degree wave counts.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is at 19:1 this morning which isn’t that far of from a record expensive ratio of 21:1.  We have a long way to go before this market becomes dirt cheap again as a Cycle degree bear market will take more than a little dip to resolve.

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Update

The markets keep pushing higher, chopping up all the bears into hamburger meat in the process. The DJIA has already gone sideways long enough to where it has broken the bigger trend line that started in 2018. I’m showing a wedge which some even call a bullish flag.  I see a wedge at this time but the DJIA can keep pushing north, but it can also suddenly reverse in a surprise bearish mood swing. Analysts will always find a reason why any asset class goes up and down but can we invest or trade with any single fundamental opinion.

Without a doubt, some analysts are very bullish when the markets are pointing up, and they become very bearish when the markets are pointing down. Only a few have the courage to be bullish when the markets make a big dip like in December of 2018. Most investors didn’t have a clue a market drop was coming in October 2018. To say that Apple didn’t see the slowdown coming is not being truthful as Tim Cook was the expert on China long before Steve Jobs passed away. Apple has a position in the DOW, so chances are slim that Apple will soar when the DJIA reverses its bullish trend.

The Gold/DJIA ratio and the Gold/Apple ratio give us a clue when an asset class becomes very expensive or cheap.

The record Gold/DJIA ratio to beat is 21:1 which happened a long time ago in August of 2018! Today we sit at 18.40:1 which still makes the DJIA expensive. Cheap would be 7:1 but that could be a pipe dream if you think it’s happening now.

I think options are due this Friday which can always cause some unwanted turmoil as well, and we will find out how committed the stock bulls really are. Usually, funds enter in January for income tax and retirement funding, and when the flow stops, stocks can make a huge plunge.  When the DJIA retraces the 21,500 price level then this rally will be confirmed that it was just a small bear market rally, in Minor degree. If any Minor degree rally can trap the bulls then any Primary degree bear market rally will trap many more.

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DJIA Rally Daily Chart Update

The DJIA is now well within 2018 spring lows which can work as resistance for a bear market rally.  Any retracement back below the 21,700 price level will confirm that this rally was just another start to a fake bull market or bear market rally. I will leave the top as is for now, until this 5 wave sequence gets confirmed. In the long run, a wave “A” in Primary degree is in our future where we can get a decent chance at a longer sustained bear market rally.  From a Cycle degree perspective, this so-called”correction” is far from finished, if the markets have a Cycle degree wave 3 top.

If we start from the 2009 bottom the following bull market was about as choppy as they come, which is very typical in 5th waves. 5th waves are fundamentally much weaker than 3rd waves are, but the majority of wave analysts think 5th waves can extend 80 years or more.  Nobody has a real clue what degree we are in but if analysts keep chasing 5 waves down in Primary degree we know that the majority think they are in GSC degree already! That logic does not wash with me, because not a single wave analysts have ever confirmed any Primary degree 5 wave sequence since the peaks in 2000.

Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

This is the best way to describe what has been happening with the majority of wave analysts for the last 18 years.

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DJIA Rally Update

Since December 26, 2018, the DJIA index started on a rally and has gone on a bit longer than what I expected.  We now have 2 lower lows which are the sign of a bear market in progress. A market plunge next week, followed by another bullish run, could already be wave 3-4 in Minor degree. Of course, we can blame it all on the Apple stock price crash.

Reporters and analysts will always find you a reason why the markets are crashing and if there are 100 analysts, you will find 100 different reasons as well. It’s worse if you are following other wave analysts with the DJIA. You can do an “Image” search, ” Elliott Wave DJIA”,  and you will find a different wave count each time.  Worse yet they will fill the chart with “W, X, Y” waves or leave 5th waves uncapped. Leaving any 5th wave uncapped anywhere clearly shows that the analysts have no clue what is supposed to cap any 5th wave.

At this time I’m going to explore the possibility that we could already be in Minor degree wave 4, which could extend any 5th wave we might still get.  We are still under a “Death Cross”  so my big bearish mood is still being played out. A little Minute degree move can fool the herd into jumping back into the markets as FOMO can produce powerful moves that might make little sense when they happen. Just because something looks “Cheap”  doesn’t mean a bull market is just around the corner.

The January Wave 3 peak in Cycle degree has arrived about 50 years later than what the majority of wave analysts are telling us, so when you change a small part of a cycle degree move, you are basically creating a “Time” jump or traveling in time on paper.  This is just a mild example of  EWP time travel as it gets worse the higher degree we think we are in.

The entire wave counting world is telling us that 5th waves can extend for generations, which is false and has never been confirmed. 5th waves are the weakest waves.

The 2009-2018 5th wave bull market was all produced by flooding the markets by dropping money from a helicopter.

I keep about 28 or so Gold ratios which are impossible for me to track in detail, but I have a good idea when something is cheap to the cash price of gold.  My old record of the Gold/DJIA expensive ratio was about 17.24:1. This record was broken in August 2018 with a new extreme reading of 21:1!

The cheap Gold/DJIA ratio is about 7.19:1 which means it only takes 7.19 Troy ounces to buy one unit of the DOW.  Today this ratio sits at 18.25:1 which is better, but still a far cry from being “Cheap”. The fluctuation of the gold price is irrelevant as the gold ratios are always present and are always being adjusted.

 

 

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DJIA: Another Mini Bull Trap ?

The majority of the world is convinced that the Sept/Oct 2018 peak was a bull market top. What they don’t realize is that expanded tops are more common than what even the wave counters see.  Expanded tops also have extreme forecasting qualities built right in.  For the last 3 months or so we had a bearish phase that still has not completed. This bullish rally soared extremely fast which is common in bear market rallies.  By the end of January 2019 this bearish phase will be 1 year old already.

What any expanded pattern tells us is if the DJIA eventually crashes to 7000, then we already know that this 2018 peak will get completely retraced.  The DJIA will never crash that deep without huge counter rallies slowing it down. Often turnings happen closer to the end of a month like the DJIA is doing now.

Some compare this decline to the 1987 crash which is 31 years old. We are nowhere near those 1987 times as the markets will always do something a bit different to confuse as many investors as it can. The Cycle degree wave 3-4 is still valid and a Primary degree bear market is what is required to complete any 4th wave bearish phase.

The entire universe of wave analysts believes that the markets are in a huge 5th wave extension. One from the 1932 bottom and another 4th wave bottom in 1974.  I’m being very direct or blunt about this, as 5th wave extensions, this long has never happened in 500 years of market history, least of all 86 years long which covers about 3-4 generations or seasons. The crowd of wave analysts has been looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree for over 18 years, and not a single set has ever developed or confirmed.

Short term another new low should happen after which another rally could surprise the investors again. Until all 5 waves down are completed I will remain bearish, but I will have no problem at looking for a Primary degree “B” wave rally in 2019.  “A” wave bottoms are buy signals but it is important what degree of an “A” wave we are talking about.

All the mini or micro mini wave counting  you see is useless work if we keep missing huge bull or bear markets.

 

 

 

 

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DJIA, The Big One: 1929-2018 Review

I have been posting small charts which can make my wave positions hard to read.  The fonts may be hard to read but I will not make my fonts on the charts any bigger. Instead, I increased the chart size that I post. This chart is one of the first that are full-sized and I did a printout comparison with my original chart and found little difference. The difference might be the speed of the page loading up. If the change makes the charts clear for readers, and they make better printouts then I will try full-sized postings for the rest of the year.

Learning any EWP is impossible when all wave counting is done on a computer screen. The majority of my wave analysis is done on paper where I can take weeks looking at it before I lay down one single number or letter.

1929 was a wave 1 peak in SC degree and definitely is “not” a wave 3 peak.  Starting with the 1929 peak we have a 1-2 wave count then by 1942 the second wave 1-2 completed. After the second set of 1-2 waves is when the wave 3 can start to extend producing the wave 1-2 in Primary degree which ending 1974!  During the ’70s and early ’80s 3 back to back 1-2 waves developed with wave 5 in Minor degree really kicking in the extension.  I looked at all the wave failures during that time as the majority were all looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree. They didn’t learn anything from that but tried to repeat the same 5 waves down in Primary degree by the 2009 bottom.

I’m sure that the experts are going to repeat the same mistake in 2019 especially if you see major peaks with uncapped 5th waves. When “Any” wave analyst leaves a 5th wave uncapped he or she is sending a clear message that they have no clue where they really are!  So if we give our present decline a few more months and you are searching for other wave positions with any wave 1 in Primary degree then feel free to send me the link.

Our present peak contains an expanded pattern which is the first step in a potential flat yet to come. This flat may end up looking like a zigzag as nobody is looking for expanded tops. Expanded tops are powerful forecasting waves. For an example, if the DJIA crashes down to 7000, I will turn very bullish and will call DOW 34,000 or higher for the next major SC degree wave 3. I have at least 5 major expanded patterns in progress, so all of them will join the new bull market sometime after the 2020 elections. Solar Cycle #25 will also kick in at that time so I’m sure the stock party will return.

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DJIA Index: Bears Are Still In Control!

I have looked over many other wave analysts work and I haven’t seen a single wave analyst that recognizes an expanded top. The majority will show you intricate wave counts and mostly done using candlestick settings. EWI has never used candlestick in any of their books and neither will I.  I will never post thousands of super-small or super-micro-mini wave counts as that is not Elliott Wave analysis. The crop of new wave analysts are showing you how much free time they have as they are trying to baffle us with bullshit. The Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) is basically a visual technical painting tool. They might paint you a beautiful picture but many times what they paint in their computers, they can never repeat it in freehand on a printout.

I have always done Elliott wave analysis in freehand and still do. Once 2018 finishes, I will only show the late September position as the most important wave to count from. I have Cycle degree specifications I follow and Minor degree wave positions are my most important waves. Minor degree is 3 degrees below Cycle degree. I also work 3 degree levels above Cycle degree, so I end up with a spread of 7 degree levels. Keeping the degree levels down stops us from time warping into the future. Being out by one degree can send us into the future by 30, 90 years or longer, so changing wave positions should be done “Like a Surgeon” not like some person flipping hamburgers. The more they flip numbers and letters around the more obvious it is that they don’t have a clue where they really are.

It is amazing how many wave analysts fall into the trap thinking that 5th waves can extend across multiple generations. 1932 to 2000 would cover about 3 generations (68 years).  At a minimum the markets should have crashed back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, but the markets have missed this 3 times already. Yet they insist we are in a Grand Supercycle degree world.

It may take another few months into the spring of 2019, and as a rough count we can use about a month of time for each of the 3 remaining waves still to come.

 

 

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DJIA Index Update.

 

Sometimes the futures charts don’t offer any special insight. I like this index and it only moves during the day. It can take days to finish a small move and this DJIA ended on a down spike and now has roared back to life!

It may last this week but any correction in this market is far from over. The DJIA is not going to soar to the moon as it will take much more to correct the imbalances in the world. That imbalance is “Debt” and world governments are all leverage to a point they will never pay the debt off. It will be easier to default on any debt than pay it down.

The DJIA may have seen another wave 1 bottom but in Minute degree. The bearish trend is still alive and at 23,300 all support will fail. Of course, President Trump will be blamed and they are even talking impeachment proceedings.

If the markets are very expensive when we use the Gold/DJIA ratio, then I can’t be bullish for any fundamental reason.  My most expensive reading was 17.24:1, which was broken by a new record of 21:1 in early August of 2018. This morning this ratio was 19.85:1 which is better but its a far cry from being cheap. The commercials are still net long but not at any extreme, so I would also like to see those numbers reverse.

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DJIA Index Update

This is the DJIA index from Big Charts which shows some violent moves that have occurred in the last 2 months or so. Many of the asset classes I use also contain an expanded top. I look at some other analysts wave counts and they are oblivious to any potential expanded pattern.

If you see any wave count with any 5th wave not being capped then that wave analyst is “Clearly” telling you, ” I have no clue where we are”.  Even the expert wave analysts leave the 5th waves uncapped.

I’ll be pretty blunt in saying that in January of 2018 wave 3 in Cycle degree has completed and my expanded top pattern is still my best bet. We’re only in an Intermediate degree crash right now, but eventually, it will turn into a Primary degree crash.

I need 5 waves down in Minor degree which has a slim chance of finishing this year. The Gold/DJIA ratio today sits at 19.54, which means it takes over 19 Gold Troy ounces to buy just one unit of this DJIA index. This is only a marginal improvement in stock markets getting cheaper, but this ratio should change by the time the DJIA corrects from a Primary Degree “A” wave. 

All support will fail when the 23,400 price level gets breached and panic will ensue again.  So far, I have 2 sets of 1-2 wave counts completed and if I’m lucky I might see the third set. 3 sets of 1-2 waves will extend wave 3 very well, and the 5th wave can also do the same thing. First sets of 1-2 waves are always the shortest, if they are not then chances are good we have an “A” wave.



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DJIA Index 2000-2018 Review

I love to make this DJIA index using a linear setting, as it shows how wild the bull market has been since that 2009 bottom.  If the younger readers think that it’s a good time to invest then they should figure out how deep this impending bear market is going to go. We are heading into a Cycle degree bear market that will not finish with a mear 20% correction! The general guideline is that markets do retrace to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

How can that work when we have no real clue as to what degree level we are actually at.  The 2016 bottom was only an Intermediate degree correction so the 2016 support level will not even get us close to the previous 4th wave. At the very least, this DJIA index has to dip into the 2007 peak, but most of the time the bottom of the markets go to the lower end of that scale, which would be closer to the 7000 price level.

I would bet that the majority of all wave counts you see out today, are a minimum of 2 degrees higher than what my wave counts are.  They still think that the 1929 crash was a 4th wave crash in Supercycle degree. This makes the bull market from 1932 to 2018 a 5th wave extension!

It’s impossible for this to ever happen as there will never be multiple generations 5th wave extensions. In this case that would be a 5th wave extension lasting 86 years already! 5th waves may be technically strong but they usually are the weakest fundamentally. The bull market from 1932 should show diagonal wave structures which they don’t. It seems that wave analysts just love to talk SC and GSC degree bear markets but to be very blunt about this, we must get a very specific corrective pattern that contains a decline of 5 waves in Primary degree.

Since the 2000 peak, no wave analysts have ever confirmed 5 waves down in Primary degree, so it is mathematically impossible for the markets to be at an SC degree top already.

Supercycle degree wave 3 and GSC degree wave 3 are still far in our future. Of course, only the younger generations will run into that because the boomers are going to be out of the picture.

Flipping numbers and letters around is not an option for me as being out by one degree can mean be wrong forever.

Elliott wave is not what we think we are seeing, as it’s all about how well we can visualize the true idealized pattern. Any wave positions in the past that looks like a simple 4th wave triangle are the simple easy patterns we can see. They are also traps for the lazy wave counters that refuse to go back in history and look for wave 3 extensions.

 

 

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DOW 30 Index 2018 Review, And The Impending Death Cross!

 

 

This is the index which does not move during the nighttime trading sessions. They also produce far better wave patterns than what individual futures contracts do which have contracts space 3 months apart.  This a standard daily chart and is the first place to look for an impending death cross. So far no Death Cross has formed but by the time the next leg down is in progress then we should expect the Death Cross to happen. My 5 waves up, ended with the late January 2018 peak and what followed fits best as part of an expanded pattern that produced the secondary top on October 3rd, 2018. What followed after the October peak was a set of 5 waves in Minute degree which ended on my wave 1 in Minor degree with a double bottom like pattern.

It has now surged further than I would like so, this calls for an instant review for an alternate short-term wave count. The big wave count has not changed at all.

Last week the Fed gave the green light based on the rate increases taking a break. I mentioned this could happen as the Fed has done this at every major peak since 2000.

Investors are not looking at technical indicators, as the Fed decisions are based strictly based on Fundamentals. Fundamentals will “always” tell you the wrong things at the extremes.

When was the last time the Fed mention that a potential Death Cross is coming? That was a trick question as they never mention technical indicators and they never will. The DOW index is getting close to the 50-day MA and may even go above it for a little while. In order for this market to soar, the 200-day MA must become support again, but once this Santa rally runs out of steam then a new record low will drive that 50-day MA into the 200-day MA line, then instantly a Death Cross on this daily chart has occurred. Death Crosses forecast the most bearish long-term moves that you can expect and the Fed has put all those fundamental worshipers into a bull trap. A  Cycle degree bull Trap!

Many good mainstream analysts also have mentioned Death Crosses so warnings have been issued.

Since 2000 each bear market that has developed got worse and lasted a bit longer than the previous bear market. Since we are heading into a Cycle degree bear market, then this decline should also last much longer than the 2001 and 2008 declines. It may not go as deep as the 2009 bottom,  but even if the DOW crashed below 2009 bottoms, it will have no impact on my present-day wave counts. Solar Cycle #25 will kill the big bear just like in 2009, but Solar cycle #25 might not arrive until 2022, some say 2019 could be the end of Solar Cycle #24 but this is far too early.

I have created a free hand idealized poster of the wave count above and I pin it on my office cork wall and take an iPhone picture of it.

 

This idealized chart starts from the 2009 bottom and will last until the 2022 bottom 3-4 years from now. Can you tell which wave 2 in Minor degree, where we could be?  This is another trick question as there is only “one” wave 2 rally labeled in Minor degree on this entire idealized chart. If the market veers dramatically from this, then a new idealized chart has to be made as well. The Elliott Wave Principle is far easier to understand if we have a clear vision of what the basic structure is supposed to look like.

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DJIA Picture Of A Bubble!

 

Once in a while, I like to post the DJIA with a linear chart setting, as that really shows the all-time history extreme stock mania. This mania will end in a major market decline, which could last well into 2022, or after solar cycle #25 starts. If readers think stocks are still going to the moon, or that Facebook is a “buy” then you have little idea about the shit storm that is coming. Investors always forget previous bubbles as it’s, “Always different this time”. They think it can never happen again.

If you take the 30-year cycle serious enough then count backward 89 years from today and we get 1929, off by one year. Cycles repeat and 89 is just one year off a perfect 3 sets of 30-year cycles.

We are definitely not at some imaginary SC, or GSC peak as modern wave analysts seem to be able to time travel into the future with a click of the mouse! If I did that, I sure wouldn’t time travel into the future, I would rather time travel into the past. We can’t flip numbers and letters around like they were hamburgers, you have to treat every position change much like a doctor handles a heart transplant or operation. There are very specific wave counts that must be confirmed if we are in SC degree in 2018.

Some little correction is not going to fix or deleverage the world, as it will take a 70% correction or more. Any stock market crash is deflationary as even in 2008 nothing was spared except for the US dollar. The boomer generation is retiring at a rate of 10,000 perday for the next 19 years! They are going to be busy on cruise lines not beating on their screens or trying to make a “long term” investment.

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DJIA 1980-2018 Review

 

I made this chart up yesterday and started the count from 1980. From a Cycle degree perspective I need to see or use three degrees below any Cycle degree, otherwise I break the sequential chain. The EWP is not what we see, but is what we are supposed to see if we followed the blue prints or our perception of one. I know there are wave analysts out there that have detailed wave positions, but they have no real money behind their convictions. I can see the most elaborate work but if they miss a stock market crash, or worse yet miss an entire 10 year bull market.

If you see any expert wave counts that do not have every single set of 5 waves capped at all times, then that analysts is spelling it out clearly that he has no clue where he is! If you see a question mark or some “X” wave,  then they also don’t know where they are.

I’m sure not a single wave analysts can draw the simple 5 waves and an extended wave 3 if they were to be tested. (With no Book) If we can’t draw our 5 simple corrections and how they fit together, then how in the world do we know what we are supposed to be looking for.

Intraday wave counting is required for the day traders as I only need to know 3 degree levels below Cycle degree and three degree levels above Cycle degree.  SC, GSC, and Subillennium wave 3 are all ahead of us still many decades away.  There are 30 year cycles always in affect and we can count backwards from our present 2018 top. 89 years, 1 year less than three, 30-year cycles, is also a Fibonacci number. 2018 minus 89 years, gets us back to the 1929 stock market peak, and we all know what followed.

From 1929-1932 it was a three year crash and bear market, that contained a zigzag that stretched much longer than any zigzag ever shown in the EWP book.  If it happens once, it can happen again so now I count with super long “C” waves at the smallest degree level.

This chart is still well below the January peak so a potential expanded pattern is taking place. Even the SP500 which has traveled to new record highs is still part of the single expanded flat I’m tracking.  When it pops is never an exact science, but it sure will surprise all the investors when it does. There is a huge deflationary crash coming just like 1929 and 2007, and no asset class will go unscathed.  A market crash sending the DJIA back to 15,000 for starters would fit very well from my perspective.

I think late 2022 will be a major bottom, but after solar cycle #25 starts to crank up! It’s solar cycle #25 that will save the stock market, so if you have any bearish thoughts and bearish positions at that time your bearish view of the future will be destroyed.

Investing at a record bubble high has trapped the majority all the time. They always tell you to stay invested for the long term, just before markets crash 70-89%!

Needless to say, I’m very bearish on stocks but I also know that a huge bear market rally is going to kill the bears off again.

I will not be investing or trading in the general markets, as the gold sector is my speciality where I have enough experience with.

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DJIA Mini Daily Chart Review.

 

I will be avoiding the actual contract months as much as possible as the real trades can distort wave patterns that are not real. Switching between bar and line mode will tell you that, as there are different wave counts between the two.  I try and always confirm my Cycle degree connections by 3 whole degrees lower, which is the same as being three steps ahead of the crowd.

This DJIA chart has not scored new record highs like the SP500 has done, so it still fits my expanded top very well. The rally that started in April is about as choppy as they come, and is usually an indication it’s fighting against a larger bearish trend.  Gold has done about the same pattern already!

The Gold/Dow ratio is at 21.56: but we  have to reverse this and think it takes over 21 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW. Expensive was over 17:1 and at 21:1 it is the most expensive ratio I have for 2018.

Investors around the world are in a government-created inflated record stock market high, all based on free money.  Governments are doing everything to keep this inflated bubble growing. It’s not the size of the bubble that’s really the issue, it’s the size of the “needle” that will prick it which will be the problem! Is Italy going to bring the entire world down or is it going be China or even Japan, as they have gone on a record money printing spree in their entire history. Deflation is in our future not inflation, as the US dollar is in a massive bull market that nobody even believes that it can happen.

Just watch the gold price for the next three years, and you will witness deflation first hand.

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DJIA Index Daily Chart Update:

This is just the DJIA index which still has not made any new record highs since the late January peak. Since about Marc/April 2018 the DJIA has created a real choppy rally which indicates that the DJIA is struggling against the larger trend which is still down.  It will take very little downside to push the 50-day MA into the 200-day MA and next thing you know the Death Cross has formed. A Death Cross indicates a long term decline, with the Death Cross still to happen on the weekly and monthly charts.

Gold is also crashing, so it’s just a matter of time before the markets join gold with it’s price crash.  Since this pattern could be part of a zigzag crash the DJIA could end up at the major “A” wave bottom in Primary degree together with gold.   After the “A” wave has bottomed, then any flat scenerio will act just like any zigzag. Gold and the DJIA “B” wave rally could sync up together, and both crash down to the 2021 Cycle degree wave IV bottom. Even after gold and the DJIA crash together, they could also rise together for another 8 or more year bull market. Gold investors will not figure this out when it happens, but the short story is, “Deflation” is coming and no amount of electronic money printing will stop it. It’s the world wide fertility crash that will case the deflation as the entire boomer genertion will be dying off by 2050.

The boomer generation will be permanent sellers of real estate (static asset) . The rich own 80% of all the wealth and most of that are static investemnts. Those hanging on to investment homes, expecting 5% or 10% a month rise to continue, are being very gready as they do not do the hard work to earn this rise.

No trend lasts forever as inflated home prices helps no one .

All this time the US dollar will be soaring as that represents deflation. Our Fed banks are fighting an old inflationary war when they raise the rates. According to the Warren Buffet indicator, the markets are twice as expensive as the time during the 2000. bubble top. Eventually, we could see the DJIA crash down to the 7000, (SP500 at 750) price level, before any real bottom will present its self to the majority.

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1987+31 Years = 2018! DJIA Impending Crash Update

 

This is the DJIA index chart and I have been doing some basic calculations, counting forwards and backwards using the 30 year cycle. This 30 year cycle has a plus or minus error of 1 year. When I first checked this by counting 100 years backwards to 1918 and then to 2101 I found this frequency to be so consistent that nothing on this planet can match this forecasting indicator. If you are ready or not, there is a huge market crash coming 30 years after the 1987 crash, and 89 years from the 1929 peak.

This 89-year Fibonacci number is only off 1 year and we have 3, 30 year cycles completed. There are many other dates that all fit very well including the 100 year cycle, like 1918 + 100  years!  Cycle degree wave 3 has already ended in most part, while gold has also ended its Cycle degree mania peak in 2011. You can’t fight cycles escpecially this 30 year cycle. Throw in the solar cycles as well, and this 2021 time period is going to get interesting to say the least. You can’t beat solar cycles, so counting waves with the solar cycles in mind should never be forgotten.

The Death Cross in the DJIA is still going to happen on the daily charts, so longer term stocks are going to get hit with huge price declines. (Deflation) This fall will tell us more, which should be followed by a massive gold and stock market rally lasting into the mid-2019 time period. Deflation is the real threat as the USD will remain strong during the entire time, except by the end of this year. The USD can crash and burn sending gold and stocks back up, in a wild bear market rally that will shock stock and gold investors alike.

Since all my wave analysis is dedicate to Cycle degree, it makes it easy to forecast any SC and GSC degree future peaks. This 30 year cycle is not going away folks as the next 3 cycle peaks would be 2041, 2071 and 2101. How these 30 year cycles form is my speciality which only my paid one on one clients get to see in detail. Of course all this imformation is all out there for free, but only a few will do the work required to confirm these cycles. Many of my indicators have been developed in-house as I do not need any expert to tell me when the markets and gold are going to crash.

We are heading into a deflationary crash folks, where all static investors will get slaughtered as they all become trapped. Being invested at the top of a Death Cross is financial suicide, yet most people are oblivious to what’s going to happen.

The EWP is what you design it to be. If you just want mindless day trading setups, while missing every major move, then that is what you will get. We get from the markets what we want, and if you don’t have a clear goal of what you want planned out, then your hopes and dreams will not get realized.

In well over 2 years 3 months, not a single person has suggested that they are switching over to Cycle degree wave analysis as it requires real money trading to confirm it all. 99.999% of all wave analysts have no skin in the game so it would take someone special to keep Cycle degree analysis going into the future. This blog may only run until Cycle degree wave IV has completed, after which Elliott Wave 5.0 could go dark permanently.

I will never waste my time and money shorting popular companies and indices, as all the short players on this planet are trying to do the same thing. Betting the markets when they are going down is not a game for sissies, as you have to have impeccable timing to make them work well.

 

 

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DJIA 2000-2018 Review

I like to use liear charts once in a while to so the dramatic move the markets have made.  I have it as a Cycle degree wave three top just like gold. The biggest stock market bubble in history does not end with a simple correction.  Bare minimum it needs to go back down and retrace this 5th wave we have finished. I’m sure that stocks and the gold market are going to sync up as they all crash together. There is a time to invest and a time to sell. This is not the time to invest from my perspective. Every stock market and gold markets are sitting on Death Crosses, and investors are oblivious to it. I’m glad I’m only a trader because investors are the ones that get hurt the most.

It might even look like that the DJIA may also grow a zigzag which I will start to keep an eye on.  A deflationary crash is coming that nobody is expecting but only a few.

I have moved all my CAD money to US funds and plan on staying there forever. When I need CAD funds I still have a small long account to work with.

As a trader I need not fear of a meltdown as my home turf or safe-haven is always cash. Go to cash, when things don’t go well and then, “take a knee”  for a few minutes, and start again.  This is not going to end well folks as bubbles bursting never does. This time it’s much worse as gold and oil is also going for a wild ride.

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Dow Index Daily Chart: Hunt For The Death Cross Continues!

If you want to see trillions go up in smoke then just what what happens after the DOW slice through the 200-day MA.  This 50-day, 200-day MA fits into my wave counting style extremely well as the Death Cross (DC) is a powerfull signal that shit is going to hit the fan. All those camplacant stock bulls  have an ugly trip ahead of them because the bears are coming to shred every bull they can catch.  A big bear in a pit of bulls, who do think will win? All the bear has to do is growl like crazy and you will see the stock bulls flee like a bunch of scared rabbits.  All it takes is one bull group to bolt for the exits and you have an instant mini crash.

If there is one warning I can give in all the time I’ve been wave counting,  you don’t want to be bullish in front of a potential Death Cross to come.  We need a very small down plunge and the Death Cross is history.  All that funny money they base their world on will come crashing down. Are you having fun yet, because for the short seller he will have a field day as he rides down the next leg of a bear market.

There is no support for anything in a Cycle degree crash, so let it fall. A world built on phony money and extreme debt does not get cleaned up with a simple correction it could take three years before the final bottom.  Besides, maybe in the fall President Trump will order the trade wars over and and scream. “No More Taxes”  The stock markets would turn and soar for huge gains.

In this crazy world anything is possible, but nothing will stop a decline once it starts rolling down hill.  Gold has already had it’s daily chart Death Cross so everything is going to take a big hit in asset prices.  I have only been using the 50-day 200-day MA a few months but it all depends how you use it that is more important.  Needless to say it fits very well with Cycle degree wave counting, and I incorporated it into the Cycle degree wave counting method.  The next many weeks is going to be critical as we should witness the DOW slow down and refuse to go higher.

 

 

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Dow Index Daily Chart: Hunt For The Death Cross!

  I have increased my chart sizes so they print out in more detail on 8×10 or larger formats. Hopefully, readers will like the higher quality charts for the extra detail.

This is a daily chart and does not move during the night so I can make these charts at any time. The 50-200 day SMA is great, but it all depends on what we want to use it for. I use it to figure out in advance when a Death Cross (DC) or a Golden Cross (GC) is going to happen next. From what I have seen a Death Cross means excatly what it says as the Death Cross can forecast huge swings and bear markets.  Most of this stuff is not rocket science, but many have never heard about crossings as they know no Technical Analysis of any type.

Back around 2011 the last Golden Cross had formed but always lagging to any wave count. Because they are lagging signals, we know a future crossing will happen and they will show up first on the daily charts.  When they are this close together it could just take 10 weeks or so when the 50 day crosses from the top down, and slices through the 200 day line. It’s always the 50 day line that does the slicing as the 200 day SMA line is the slow turtle, so to speak.

Next thing you know the stock market plunges to 20,000 where the 200-day line meets on the weekly charts. No analysts on Wall Street are screaming about an impending Death Cross. At best a few may call the Death Cross after it happens. They’re all asleep at the switch. There is a lot of backchecking I would want to do before using them in the stock markets. Due to the wild swings in commadaties, they work well with my Cycle degree wave counts.

Right now, the markets are always waiting for someone or some report to come out before it decides if the DJIA wants to implode. I believe a serious recession is in the wind, bordering on a depression and this so-called “correction” is just the start of a much bigger crash than anyone suspects. We are dealing with a Cycle degree bear market where a huge counter rally (bear market rally) will try and fool all of us again.  The markets will have little problem in sucking back investors, when they think the worst is over.  Any “B” wave in Primary degree will get completely retraced. I treat the total retracement of a bear market rally, as something chiseled in stone, as it’s not something I invented. The EWP book is full of the words, “always and never”, so I use always or equivalent expressions.

Any low targets are usually close to the September October time periods and we might get to the Primary degree “A” wave by that time. This could also sync up with the potential of gold’s “A” wave bottom of Primary degree as well. That would be a good trick even if it’s close. In good times the majority is never prepared for bad times, and this time it shouldn’t be any different! The stock market party has ended folks, and Elvis has left the building. No amount of cheering will bring him back.  🙄

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DJIA Intraday Gyrations Update!

The DJIA keeps heading south, which the Global DOW is also confirming.  It’s sad to say, but stock investors have no clue in what is going to hit them, as trade wars may be the least of their worries. The majority of it is all about the currencies inverse to the US dollar that are imploding!  This means deflation is in our future not inflation.  Stocks and gold “deflated” in the 2008 crash, so to think that it can’t happen again is very short term thinking.  We are going into a huge bear market that still may last three years before a brand new bullish phase can even start.  March is always a good time for major tops and October and November are always good months for bottoms.

It will be futile to think some new bullish super phase is coming. That dream is fading fast and you will see analysts scrambling to come up with all the bearish reasons why the markets are heading down. In bear markets a 70-80% decline is not unusual from an EWP perspective. The majority will think this is a crazy notion, but its very normal from a Cycle degree perspective.

I expect this bearish trend to continue, with a few surprises thrown in to keep us from falling asleep at the switch. Any market action is “always right”. It is our subjective opinions at the extremes that’s always wrong. Cash is “King” when world investments meltdown. $100 trillion could disappear in electronic smoke, which means “money” destruction will happen. $100 trillion is about 1/3 of total world US dollar asset values.

I wish for a Great July 4th in the USA, as I will take a bit of downtime this week as well.

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Quick Intraday DJIA Update

This is the September contract and in it we see far more violent moves than what the standard DJIA index will give us. By the looks of what I see is that the DJIA is still heading south, but it will also get closer to some key previous support price levels.  If there is more to this decline than meets the eye, then any support price has no hope of holding. The majority love to analyze everything using “Price”. Pattern pulls far more weight than any price forecast will do as the markets are controlled by the wave structure not by the price structure.

One example of this is, did the “price” of the bear market low in 2009 gave you a clear signal that a huge bull market was coming? Not a fricken chance folks. Even all the expert wave counters that always deal in the price of an asset class, didn’t see the big bull market coming.  So, are all the wave analysts going to see this next bear market coming? Sure a few will, but many still have super bullish wave counts. They will constantly flip numbers and letters around, add a bunch of question marks to the charts, and then they can always claim to be right. The Nasdaq has squeezed out another new record high while the DJIA is heading south. Talk about marching to a different drummer or what! It will clear up, but that still may take some time.

Buying on any “Dip” is going to be financial suicide if we don’t understand the size of the “Big Dip” that is coming.  Any market can correct back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, and can even go lower like the DJIA did in 2009.  The only so called safe trade would be if we catch wave “A” in Primary degree. By that time the DJIA bears will be in a trap and any rally will force them to change directions. There is nothing as powerful as when the entire herd has to change directions, as they scramble to get out of their short positions.

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DJIA Daily Chart Update: Are The Bears Back In Control?

This DJIA chart has not produced any new record highs in well over 4 months and it even has a lower wave 2 then the SP500 has. I treat this low as a running zigzag as they do happen. I stay away from calling anything “truncated” but a low wave 2 means that the market is more bearish than the majority think. The big clue that the last few months is a bearish rally, is the very fact that the rally produced an extremely choppy pattern. This tells me the rally is going against a larger trend, which would be down.

The Cycle degree wave 3 peak is still holding and hopefully it will not be knocked off, as I want my Cycle degree sequences to last for the rest of stock market history.  Eventually, we will get a major stock market bottom that will be another fantastic buying opportunity. Of course the majority will never get it, as they will be ill prepared in what to do when it does hit a major low again.  Wave 3 can produce declines that will stun the majority like dear caught in the headlights. In this case its more like the “bulls” are caught in the headlights as the bears return to shred this bull market psychology once more.

Recently one of my DJIA posts has been published in Market Forum and this is the link to it. This is all very good exposure and I thank the author for posting it.

When this market goes down, many other asset classes will also get dragged down,  just like what happen in 2008. Needless to say I’m bearish until such a time a counter rally is going to be big enough, to force players to reverse their positions.  I’m sure that in the future we will get price forecasts claiming that the DJIA  is going to 5000, 3000 or even 1000.

When all the analysts are in concensus, then this is when the markets will turn and go in the opposite direction. When the DJIA 5000 price forecasts are broadcast far and wide, then it’s a pretty safe bet to call for DJIA to hit 45,000. Mind you it may take until 2029 to play out.

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