We can see that the January Peak at $27 is a single top all stuck out in the open. There is no expanded top here like we got on at least 5 other indices. This January peak is the real peak which I see as wave 3 in Cycle degree. There are always three sets of simple corrections we will have to choose from and we would need a single correction in Cycle degree with 3 stages in Primary degree. It all points to a big flat in Primary degree with this single zigzag being the intro to the “A” wave in Primary degree.
I don’t think this decline can play out by the end of the year, as it may take until February-March 2019. A full set of 5 waves has to develop, and a landing at a Primary Degree “A” bottom would be a buy signal.
It looks like this AI ETF has a real emotional crowd selling all the AI stocks! Just goes to show that emotion has the ultimate power. The top has one wave position missing and by doing that, I am breaking my own ‘Law” so to speak, leaving an uncapped 5th wave. I couldn’t fit it in, but this is also Cycle degree wave 3 when a potential Primary degree zigzag bear market could also develop. The sloth of smart bears have taken over and there is no amount of bullish jargon that will turn a trend, that still needs to finish. This could sync up with the stock market very well as a potential wave 2 counter-rally.
I have no real Gold/BOTZ ratio profile made up but I still have to back-check the extreme ratio. Today this ratio sits at 64.26:1 but this could still spread much further by the end of the year. No amount of ratio calculations will help here, as we have no real knowledge how pumped-up the AI stocks really were! BOTZ could suffer the same bear market length as stocks, which I expect to end sometime in 2022. When solar cycle #25 starts up in sunspot activity again, I’m sure all the companies inside the BOTZ ETF are going to get energized. Only time will tell if this keeps heading south but another sideways correction should happen by the end of this year.
As much as I’m bearish on BOTZ now, that will end once solar cycle #25 sneaks up on us! The start of solar cycles are bear terminators, so this is when you can witness and feel the mood change along with the sun morphing into SC#25.
Since the media is always hyping the AI world, I decided to look up potential ETFs that can help us track the world of robots and artificial inteligence. This is just a general interest post as I will not track every little wave that may or may not happen. The only thing BOTZ is tracking so far is the general index, as it has separated away from the Nasdaq by about 5 months already. If the general markets switch back to a bearish mood then I see no reason why BOTZ should soar. BOTZ may also help in being a leading indicator .
The entire bullish phase could get completely retraced, and it would be financial suicide to buy into this ETF thinking your buying on a dip! We could end up with a really big, “Dip”, so waiting for that time will be critcal.
This is only a general posting and by no means a buying suggestion. Investing and speculation are two different things as investors always maintain their bullish mood. A person that “may” short this ETF is not an investor, they are speculators. For those that don’t know what “shorting”means, is that you can make money on the trip down. A speculator is free to play both directions so fundamentals mean little to them.