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Category Archives: INDICES

SP500 Record Top Update.

 

 

Stocks seem to find no real top as records are still being broken. Investing in at the top of the biggest bubble in all of financial history, is very popular.  Investors seem to ignore all the fundamentals with a “who cares” approach.

The biggest and worst advice we are getting is, “Stay in for the long run”. At every major top like 1929-2000,2007, 2018 they always coach you to stay invested for the long term. Tell that to the investors that got wiped out during the 2008 crash, or the 1987 crash.

Stay invested and keep buying the dips, as this market has a long way to go, is the general advice. Only the very inexperienced can do that, but for the millions of boomers retiring it would be financial suicide to stay invested. 10,000 boomers are retiring every day for the next 19 years, so where is all the money going to come from that will push the markets to the extreme? The world has a Titanic anchor of debt hung around their necks and they will get thrown over-board the first time the SS SP500 springs a leak!

The expanded pattern I show, is not just on one index but we can find it in the top 3-5 indices. This expanded pattern would just be a lead into the bigger “A” wave bottom in Primary degree, that is sure to come.  Every wave analysts would be screaming to get out if they new how deadly this pattern actually is. We will know only when it hits, as something will set the herd of investors into a panic.

The VIX tells us that much already, because commercial traders are about as bullish with the VIX as you can imagine, while the speculators are in another bear trap with the VIX. When it changes then expect some violent moves in the VIX as we have seen that happen many times before.

As long as all the expert wave analysts don’t see this expanded pattern their wave counts will get trashed. If all wave analysts don’t see this crash coming then what good is all that wave counting? They sure could not hit the 2009 bottom as that was screwed up as well.

 

 

Hits: 2

T-Bond Monthly Chart 1981-2018 Review

 

This is just a simple version, but we have to back to 1981 when this big bullish phase started. There is definitely a 60-year cycle to T-Bonds which is just 2, 30 cycles back to back. 1981+60 gets us to 2041, which is my SC degree wave 3 top as well. This bull market is far from over as there is no threat of inflation. All the commercial COT numbers show that they have net long positions in everything related to bonds. This does not support a bigger bearish phase at all. Even the 30-day Fed fund rate has been stagnating, showing that the Fed may be forced to pause or slow down the rate increases, and maybe even reverse.

I need lots of work to find a better fit, but a new bullish phase to new record high bond prices sure would help to confirm my bullish outlook.

Hits: 3

Mini SP500 Daily September Futures Update

 

This will be the last of the September index as all of them will be moved to the December 2018 contracts.  The markets are doing a good job of killing any bearish wave positions as they ride the choppy move to the upside. I will stick to my guns, and look at  this as the start of an expanded pattern. The stock bubble ended in January and I have that peak as a Cycle degree wave 3 peak.

There is no way of hitting the exact wave, but a fast retreat would be sign that this bull market has had enough. Investing at world record highs seems to be the popular thing to do. I see it as just plain greed when putting money at risk like this.  Over a 400% gain in a 9 year run is still not enough for investors, as I see nothing but a stock market bull trap being set-up.

Nothing new here as I am tracking another mania for the third time. Patterns like this can create very steep drops, as the investing crowd is going to panic once a few support prices get breached.

I filled in wave positions down to the Minuette degree level, as the “C” wave is a diagonal wave structure and is going against the bigger trend.

My wave position is only a Cycle degree top, as the majority are in SC and GSC degree wave counts already. 2018 is 89 years from the 1929 peak, but this time it’s just one degree lower than the 1929 crash was so it will be like 1929 and 2008 which should take 2-3 years to fully play out. 2022 is my target year, as years ending in 2 seem to have major reversals connected to them.

Massive deflation is the true threat, and we may see that by the FED, “resting” on rate hikes. Even when they drop rates again inflation will not be the driving factor, as printing money is not inflation. If the velocity of money picks up then gold will benifit by going up in price. Gold has already turned the corner last week with a low spike of about $1160.

All my work is from a Cycle degree perspective so all SC and GSC degree wave counts will not happen for decades far beyond my years, but which the new Generation-Z will live work and invest in.

The first of the Generation-Z was born in 2008, but I am checking that, as it would also cut off all kids born to the Millennial generation.

Hits: 1

DJIA Picture Of A Bubble!

 

Once in a while, I like to post the DJIA with a linear chart setting, as that really shows the all-time history extreme stock mania. This mania will end in a major market decline, which could last well into 2022, or after solar cycle #25 starts. If readers think stocks are still going to the moon, or that Facebook is a “buy” then you have little idea about the shit storm that is coming. Investors always forget previous bubbles as it’s, “Always different this time”. They think it can never happen again.

If you take the 30-year cycle serious enough then count backward 89 years from today and we get 1929, off by one year. Cycles repeat and 89 is just one year off a perfect 3 sets of 30-year cycles.

We are definitely not at some imaginary SC, or GSC peak as modern wave analysts seem to be able to time travel into the future with a click of the mouse! If I did that, I sure wouldn’t time travel into the future, I would rather time travel into the past. We can’t flip numbers and letters around like they were hamburgers, you have to treat every position change much like a doctor handles a heart transplant or operation. There are very specific wave counts that must be confirmed if we are in SC degree in 2018.

Some little correction is not going to fix or deleverage the world, as it will take a 70% correction or more. Any stock market crash is deflationary as even in 2008 nothing was spared except for the US dollar. The boomer generation is retiring at a rate of 10,000 perday for the next 19 years! They are going to be busy on cruise lines not beating on their screens or trying to make a “long term” investment.

Hits: 6

BP, British Pound Bull Market In Progress?

 

 

If you want to see an extreme COT report then this is a good one. The top section are the bullish contracts which are the commercials.  As soon as I saw this COT report, I knew my bearish outlook is not going to keep going.  

I will still need to work back to 1970, but our August, 15, 2018 low may be a Primary Degree low, and a potential 5 waves in Intermedeate degree have started!   This will take a long time to confirm as it’s not clear if the correction has completed. At this time I don’t rule anything out, as wave 2 crashes sure can act this way! If a bullish phase is on, then nothing will stop the BP from consistently pushing higher. The BP should have little problem in slicing the top trend line, but the bottom trend line may not hold.

When we consistently get higher lows, and good corrective waves in them, then those are all signs of a bull!

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DJIA 1980-2018 Review

 

I made this chart up yesterday and started the count from 1980. From a Cycle degree perspective I need to see or use three degrees below any Cycle degree, otherwise I break the sequential chain. The EWP is not what we see, but is what we are supposed to see if we followed the blue prints or our perception of one. I know there are wave analysts out there that have detailed wave positions, but they have no real money behind their convictions. I can see the most elaborate work but if they miss a stock market crash, or worse yet miss an entire 10 year bull market.

If you see any expert wave counts that do not have every single set of 5 waves capped at all times, then that analysts is spelling it out clearly that he has no clue where he is! If you see a question mark or some “X” wave,  then they also don’t know where they are.

I’m sure not a single wave analysts can draw the simple 5 waves and an extended wave 3 if they were to be tested. (With no Book) If we can’t draw our 5 simple corrections and how they fit together, then how in the world do we know what we are supposed to be looking for.

Intraday wave counting is required for the day traders as I only need to know 3 degree levels below Cycle degree and three degree levels above Cycle degree.  SC, GSC, and Subillennium wave 3 are all ahead of us still many decades away.  There are 30 year cycles always in affect and we can count backwards from our present 2018 top. 89 years, 1 year less than three, 30-year cycles, is also a Fibonacci number. 2018 minus 89 years, gets us back to the 1929 stock market peak, and we all know what followed.

From 1929-1932 it was a three year crash and bear market, that contained a zigzag that stretched much longer than any zigzag ever shown in the EWP book.  If it happens once, it can happen again so now I count with super long “C” waves at the smallest degree level.

This chart is still well below the January peak so a potential expanded pattern is taking place. Even the SP500 which has traveled to new record highs is still part of the single expanded flat I’m tracking.  When it pops is never an exact science, but it sure will surprise all the investors when it does. There is a huge deflationary crash coming just like 1929 and 2007, and no asset class will go unscathed.  A market crash sending the DJIA back to 15,000 for starters would fit very well from my perspective.

I think late 2022 will be a major bottom, but after solar cycle #25 starts to crank up! It’s solar cycle #25 that will save the stock market, so if you have any bearish thoughts and bearish positions at that time your bearish view of the future will be destroyed.

Investing at a record bubble high has trapped the majority all the time. They always tell you to stay invested for the long term, just before markets crash 70-89%!

Needless to say, I’m very bearish on stocks but I also know that a huge bear market rally is going to kill the bears off again.

I will not be investing or trading in the general markets, as the gold sector is my speciality where I have enough experience with.

Hits: 9

Facebook Crash And Burn Review

 

When analysts are talking about buying on the dip in Facebook do not have a clue that the bull market in FB has finished, with that huge drop and open gap a mile wide.  Not knowing when a bull market has ended or even care to learn how bubbles can end, will always lose when investing with the herd.  I don’t know which gap is bigger, the one up top or the big gap below $34! Longer term it would not surprise me if FB eventually crashed down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. Many investors can’t think that far ahead as that is too much like work.

This crazy tech mania will crash and burn and the only real question is when a real bottom may arrive? That may not happen until late 2022 as stock markets around the world can crash 70% or more. 2022-90 years gets us back to 1932. 90 years are 3, 30 year cycles or 1 year off a Fibonacci 89. 89 is one of the most powerful Fibonacci numbers you don’t want to ignore. Most people do ignore all the even Fibonacci numbers, which I don’t

There is no way anyone can pick a ratio bottom, when nobody has a clue how big the correction is going to be in the first place. Facebook may end up like another Tulip Mania story never to rise again, where the top gap may never get closed!  Just like the tech section imploded in 2000, 2008, we will get another bear market and recession just the same.

Years ending with a “2” have been very bullish turning years so 2022 will be a very important date to watch.

The Gold/FB ratio is sitting at 7.32:1 and it should expand as FB keeps on crashing. Cheap at one time was a Gold/FB ratio of 100:1,  so we have a long way to go before FB becomes cheap again.

Hits: 6

Apple: Did Warren Buffett Push Apple To The Limit?

 

Maybe I’m the odd ball as I see Warren Buffett go out of his way to by into Apple stock at world record highs. Warren Buffett created his own bull market and the majority are falling into the same trap.  What does Apple do with all this free money?  They go out and blow it buying their own shares back at world record highs.  It see it as a complete waste of money given to them by the share holders. Sooner or later Warren Buffett will have to take a rest, and when he does this Apple stock will crash!  We now have another major AAPL stock peek and it has started to back off in the last few days. In the long run all asset classes are going to suffer a deflationary crash and Apple will not be exempt from this. You can pour over the fundamentals all you want, but fundamentals always tell us the wrong things at the extremes.

The Gold/Apple ratio speaks volumes if you know how to use it. A record expensive ratio has been at 7.29:1, this has now been blown out of the water and this morning this ratio stands at 5.48:1, which is the most expensive reading I have ever recorded with the Gold/Apple ratios.

We would have to get to 21.81:1 before it becomes cheap again.  We would need a bit bigger decline so it has no more time to hit another new record top in 2018!

Hits: 41

Nifty: Is It The Top?

 

I do have a strong following from India but I will not show every little move that might be good for simple day trading set-ups. I don’t think the Nifty can come out of the impending crash and bear market unscathed. If a new record high gets established again, it would surprise me a bit, but sooner or later all markets will start to tank. We need more downside, before we no longer have the time for a new record high in 2018 to establish itself.  We already have a small set of 5 waves forming, but we have to wait to see if other sets of 5 waves start to form.

I have no real track record of the Gold/Nifty ratio, as I would have todo some back checking to create some paramerters I can work with.  Today this ratio stands at 9.83:1, which means it takes 9.83 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Nifty. This is already to the expensive side, but in the next few years we want to buy more units of  the Nifty with one ounce of gold.

The Nifty has also potentailly peaked at a Cycle degree wave 3 high, so a big long drawn-out bear market will happen. This bear market bottom may take until late 2022 to complete, which is 90 years from 1932. 90 years equals 3, 30 year cycles.  Solar Cycle #24 has to end, and solar cycle #25 will start and that is when I will turn very bullish.

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HUI 2011-2018 Update

 

The HUI is just an index of gold and silver stocks which has been in a bear market since the bubble mania peak in 2011. All commodaties are in diagonal wave structures where normal stock market wave counting will not work. The 4th wave rally in Intermediate degree is a bear market rally and this will get confirmed when the HUI crosses below the 100 price level, which is only 35 points lower from today’s price levels.

The Gold/Hui ratio is at 8.85:1 which is getting very cheap when we use the gold price as money.  I have records of the HUI as 10:1 being an extreme cheap ratio, but I would expect a much bigger extreme to still show itself by the end of this year! I can still stretch the time to early 2019 if need be, but then gold can be bullish well into early 2020 after which the HUI will suffer the biggest decline ever.

Any “B” wave top will also be the last time that we can unload gold bullion, because gold could suffer a $1300 price crash lasting well over a year or more. Deflation is the real threat and the gold market is the clearest example of what happens when deflation sets in. Even the HUI has a triangle in it so this has been very common in all gold stock related ETFs. I’m using GDX and GDXJ as my main trading ETFs but added options (PUTs) in August, which can turbo charge the returns.

One month experience does not make an expert, but by the end of this year I will be forced to sell all my PUTs after which, I will look at the track record as a new cash base will get established.

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Gold Daily Chart Update

 

When we notice a pattern as choppy as gold was during 2017 and early 2018, then this is telling us that gold is traveling up when the bigger trend is down. I counted out the triangle in gold with more detail this time as I will not keep filling in the sames positions over and over again. The only way we can have a triangle in a 5th wave decline is in a diagonal set of 5 waves. Triangles also send out a clear warning that once they are completed, I must increase my wave degree by a minimum of 1 degree, and even 2 degree levels at certain times.

The 2017 peak was an Intermediate degree peak, so gold must exceed the 2017 peak by a wide margin, ($1375). We would be on a Primary degree run, specifically a “B” wave in Primary degree.  Three big moves in Primary degree is in our gold future, and it would be best to talk about that when I update GDX!

We did get a strong spike down to the $1160 price level, but that support price will not hold, which makes the $1120 price level the next target to get hit. Once gold gets below $1120 there is only one leg of a bar stool that hasn’t cracked yet. Three cracked legs will not hold the heavy gold bullion owners, and the $1047 gold price level will confirm without a shadow of doubt, that gold was just in a bear market rally.  If an Intermediate degree bear market rally can fool the majority of investors, then a Primary degree “B” wave bullish top will really fool them again.

The anticipaded “B” wave gold bullish phase will also be the last time that we can sell bullion into a mania peak, because it will not be until 2041 when SC degree wave 3 in gold arrives. Yes, 30 years between gold mania peaks which nobody expects, but it will produce some of the best trading we can do for the rest of our lives.

The Gold Death Cross was at $1300 with this daily chart, and the weekly chart Death Cross is still to come.

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VIX Daily Chart: Crank Me Up!

 

If you are looking for voilitility and leverage then the VIX charts will supply that for you as this is where options live and die!  This year I have been adding options into the ETF mix  but will not play the VIX until I have a better trading account built up. Wedges seemed to work as the January explosion was not surprise. If this bearish phase is much bigger than most think then the VIX made-up with SP500 options, should create a new record high.

When the VIX goes vertical then this is the best time to close CALLs and call it a day.  We have another wedge forming as well, but we have to wait to see if the VIX clears my “A” wave in Intermediate degree.

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Mini SP500 Daily Chart World Record High Review

 

We now have a secondary peak with this SP500 daily chart, but this is not the real high! There are expanded patterns that constantly catch us by surprise, if we are not actively looking for them.

Our wave counts will be so far off course when we do not suspect any expanded pattern to be in progress.  It’s also the biggest early indicator that stock markets are correcting with a Cycle degree flat, while gold is in a zigzag of the same degree. With the gold price crashing we know deflation is the issue, not inflation. The general markets will eventually act together or “hook-up” as all asset classes are going to deflate in price. During the 2008 crash gold, silver, gold stocks, oil and the general stock markets all crashed together for 8 intense months, while the US dollar index soared!

The exact same conditions in 2008 are present now, as the US dollar refuses to implode.  The US dollar bear market ended in 2008 with a zigzag crash, so it’s in a bullish phase that very few  USD watchers understand. It will be the huge corrections in this giant bull market that gold will perform moves that will shock us.

10,000 Boomers are retiring every day for the next 18 years so this will drain workers on a massive scale, and will no longer be producing in the economy. They will also be downsizing, and spend far less in the process. When they start to die, they will also be permanent sellers of real-estate and stock market holdings. Every western or developed country in the world has the same problem with Boomers disapearing on a massive scale.  After every market crash a fertility crash gets reported a few years later which economist don’t even look at. When the future looks bleak, then raising a family will be the furthest thing from their minds.

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DJIA Mini Daily Chart Review.

 

I will be avoiding the actual contract months as much as possible as the real trades can distort wave patterns that are not real. Switching between bar and line mode will tell you that, as there are different wave counts between the two.  I try and always confirm my Cycle degree connections by 3 whole degrees lower, which is the same as being three steps ahead of the crowd.

This DJIA chart has not scored new record highs like the SP500 has done, so it still fits my expanded top very well. The rally that started in April is about as choppy as they come, and is usually an indication it’s fighting against a larger bearish trend.  Gold has done about the same pattern already!

The Gold/Dow ratio is at 21.56: but we  have to reverse this and think it takes over 21 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW. Expensive was over 17:1 and at 21:1 it is the most expensive ratio I have for 2018.

Investors around the world are in a government-created inflated record stock market high, all based on free money.  Governments are doing everything to keep this inflated bubble growing. It’s not the size of the bubble that’s really the issue, it’s the size of the “needle” that will prick it which will be the problem! Is Italy going to bring the entire world down or is it going be China or even Japan, as they have gone on a record money printing spree in their entire history. Deflation is in our future not inflation, as the US dollar is in a massive bull market that nobody even believes that it can happen.

Just watch the gold price for the next three years, and you will witness deflation first hand.

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SP500 Daily Chart Update!

 

The talking heads have declared the correction over as new record highs are being broken. The problem with that thinking is that there are expanded patterns that constantly fool us thinking that the bull market is still alive.  These types of moves can turn very violent in a short period of time, so I have deep respect for expanded patterns. This would just be the opening pattern to what will be a Cycle degree flat bear market.  Up to the first “A” wave in Primary degree a flat and a zigzag are different, but then the counter rally bull market “B” wave and the following Primary degree “C” wave can be exactly the same.

We sure have a rising wedge in progress and they are about as bearish of a signal as they come.  The entire bull market in stocks has worked with printing money on a unprecedented scale, and when the markets crash then this is asset destruction on a grand scale. It’s like throwing money in a fire and watching it burn, far less money will be around in the future as 100 trillion in world asset values could disappear in a puff of electronic smoke!

This is what happened in 1929 and the only difference now is that the 1929 crash was a Supercycle degree wave 2 crash. In 2018-2021 we will be one degree lower.  It will be worse than the 2008 recession, but not quite as bad as the 1930’s depression.

Gold will crush all the old myths about protecting you when things get crazy but this a false believe as gold will not protect you in deflationary times. Buying this market on any dip is also a crazy idea if you don’t know that a big crash is coming.

Just like the markets crashed down into 2008-2009 we are faced with the same situation 10-11 years after the 2007 peak. If we take 1929 and add the Fibonacci number 89 in years, we get 2018. 89 is only one year off from 3-30 year cycles.

This 30 year cycles works best in the gold market as for he stock market I have to calculated it a bit different, mostley from different times.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Impending Death Cross Update!

The odds that the main indices also contain an expanded pattern is to hard to ignore. The “C” wave decline can be very steep and it would travel faster as well. Again, protective sell stops are piling up underneath every price support, and a quick count tells us we have about 5 legs that have to get retraced.

We still have a long way to go before the Death Cross is made in the Nasdaq as the crossings all travel in alternating sequences. After a Golden Cross comes a Death Cross, which forecasts a long term bearish decline to come. I have an in-house “pool” of futures Death Crosses which is just one of my 8 main indicators or tools that I use. Another main in-house pool consisting of all my gold/ratios is also another one of the 8 indicators I use.  I call them my “aces” in my hand, and if I only have 1-2 aces that give a clear signal then this is not nearly enough to justify a move.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 6.19:1 which is far more expensive than the 4.94:1 extreme that I once measured.

My Market Vane report is another “Ace” but this will run out soon. Market Vane shows that 76% bulls were present for last week. This has dropped down from a 24 month high of 91% bulls. 91% bulls is an extreme from any perspective, which means there is nobody left to get in.

Markets are twice as expensive now than they were in 2000 as the Warren Buffet indicator confirms. The entire world is sitting on impending Death Crosses so I only see downside potential for the rest of this year. It could take all of 2018, to show the damage that bears can cause but then all of 2019 coud be very bullish for stocks and gold again.

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S&P Midcap E-Mini Daily Chart Update.

This Midcap futures chart has recently pushed to new record highs. Just because we are seeing new record highs does not mean that the next leg up has started, but it could mean an expanded top is also in progress. The result can be a decline that will shock investors as it will go deeper than any correction we’ve had so far. Any further drop in the markets, and the Midcaps would be sitting on a Death Cross!

We can draw a rising wedge which is also an extremely bearish indicator so there is not too much to jump up and down for. Below virtually every support price (about 4 of them) there are sell stops being stacked up, so all those bulls turn to instant bears as soon as their sell stops get hit.

Not until the markets decline in an obvious fashion will the stock bulls on the wrong side start to panic. There is the also a very high probability that in the begining stages stocks may act a bit different than gold. They could sync up very well for any “B and C” wave in Primary degree. 2/3 of a zigzag and 2/3 of any flat can be virtually the same. This would be the most obvious demonstration by the markets, that a deflationary crash is going to happen.

Market fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes. When all the stock bulls start to think alike then chances are good they are wrong and the opposite should be considered.

Even the DJIA may have peaked today, but again this has to get confirmed by recording a last high.

 

 

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Mini SP500 2000-2018 Review.

 

This market is still trying to break to new record highs, as this SP500 chart is just a few points away from establishing a new record high. All this has taken to long already so I have to explore the idea that an expanded pattern is forming in Intermediate degree. Once the main markets start to show a more ovious crash, then I expect gold to do much of the same. Gold finished a 30 year mania peak in 2011 that will not get repeated until 2041 when SC wave three should arrive.  The advantage of working in Cycle degree is that SC,GSC and Submillennium degree wave 3 are all ahead of us, as all others think we are in a GSC degree already. Flipping wave counts around like they are hamburgers  on a grill, is not what the EWP is all about. I don’t move any of my big wave positions around anymore, as from my perspective it’s more like a surgical procedure transplanting a heart!  Each move has output ramifications, attached to them, so we should be far more senstive when we flip Elliott Wave numbers around.

I don’t like the expression “wave counting” as from my perspective they are all “positions” of captured human emotions. Being out by just “ONE”  degree, will put us out by a mile or 61% or more.  An example would be 377 years, with one higher degree this would turn into 610 years long. One degree would throw us off a minimum of 144 years. My target for Submillennium degree wave 3 peak would be the year 2101!  That’s just for gold as the stock markets can be offset by many years.

WD Gann used the 60 year cycle a lot, but this 60 years, is just two 30 year cycles connected together. 3-30 year cycles is only 1 year off from the Fibonacci number 89, and I treat them as being the same.

The Death Cross, or the 200-day MA is at SP500 2300, but it will take more than that for the markets to complete any impending Death Cross. The world is siting on the most inflated markets in world history, and when they correct it will not be pretty.

At this time I’m just taking a best guess approach to the depth of an “A” wave in Primary degree, as it is still to early to make any better call.

 

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Mini DJIA 2007-2018 Review

Many are waiting for the DJIA to break out into new record highs as this correction in a bull market is just about over!  Any new record high can happen but this could also mean that a potential expanded pattern is at work.   When this turns then it can happend very quickly where there will be little time to react.

What we are looking at is a potential wave 3 peak in Cycle degree and the impending correction could still take 2-3 years to play out. Cycle degree in stocks and a Cycle degree in gold is pretty hard to understand but that is what we are facing in the next few years. President Trump is already peeved with the FED rate raising policy, and I  agree. The FED is fighting an old war taking data from lagging indicators, like they always do.

The big threat is deflation and not inflation. Gold, oil and the stock markets also crashed together in 2008 which was one of the first warnings that deflation is going to rear its ugly head. Back in 2008 the USD was hated by everyone as they could not run fast enough out of the US dollar. Of course the US dollar had other plans as it soared while everything else crashed.

If in the rest of 2018 stocks and gold sync up, then there is a very high proability that they can sync up for many years.  Nobody sees this starting to happen, but it has all happened before, in 1920-1932. The big difference between then and now is the level of degree. 1929-1932 was a SC degree wave 1-2 crash while in 2018 we are one degree lower at Cycle degree wave 3. Any deflationary pressures will not be as bad as the 30’s, but it should be worse than what the 2008 crash produced.

Warren Buffet keeps buying Apple stock at world record highs, and is single-handedly keeping the markets on a bullish path.

Only the rich can keep playing this game now, as they own 80% of all assets. Those that are sitting on static assets as the enjoy monthly gains, do no work to earn those gains. Real estate will be one of the biggest losers as high real estate prices serves no one. All it takes is a small liquidity crisis from anywhere in the world, and people will be forced to liquidate as they are all caught in a bull trap.

Stocks are now more than twice as expensive as they were in 2000 but most investors are oblivious to this fact. Investors playing with bubbles do not see themselves in a bubble, or worse yet, they think they can escape just in time.

At a minimum we should get back to 2015-2016 lows, where we may find temporary support as well. Ultimately the bottom support line will never hold as the markets could see a 70% or more crash.

Hits: 4

DJIA Index Daily Chart Update:

This is just the DJIA index which still has not made any new record highs since the late January peak. Since about Marc/April 2018 the DJIA has created a real choppy rally which indicates that the DJIA is struggling against the larger trend which is still down.  It will take very little downside to push the 50-day MA into the 200-day MA and next thing you know the Death Cross has formed. A Death Cross indicates a long term decline, with the Death Cross still to happen on the weekly and monthly charts.

Gold is also crashing, so it’s just a matter of time before the markets join gold with it’s price crash.  Since this pattern could be part of a zigzag crash the DJIA could end up at the major “A” wave bottom in Primary degree together with gold.   After the “A” wave has bottomed, then any flat scenerio will act just like any zigzag. Gold and the DJIA “B” wave rally could sync up together, and both crash down to the 2021 Cycle degree wave IV bottom. Even after gold and the DJIA crash together, they could also rise together for another 8 or more year bull market. Gold investors will not figure this out when it happens, but the short story is, “Deflation” is coming and no amount of electronic money printing will stop it. It’s the world wide fertility crash that will case the deflation as the entire boomer genertion will be dying off by 2050.

The boomer generation will be permanent sellers of real estate (static asset) . The rich own 80% of all the wealth and most of that are static investemnts. Those hanging on to investment homes, expecting 5% or 10% a month rise to continue, are being very gready as they do not do the hard work to earn this rise.

No trend lasts forever as inflated home prices helps no one .

All this time the US dollar will be soaring as that represents deflation. Our Fed banks are fighting an old inflationary war when they raise the rates. According to the Warren Buffet indicator, the markets are twice as expensive as the time during the 2000. bubble top. Eventually, we could see the DJIA crash down to the 7000, (SP500 at 750) price level, before any real bottom will present its self to the majority.

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1987+31 Years = 2018! DJIA Impending Crash Update

 

This is the DJIA index chart and I have been doing some basic calculations, counting forwards and backwards using the 30 year cycle. This 30 year cycle has a plus or minus error of 1 year. When I first checked this by counting 100 years backwards to 1918 and then to 2101 I found this frequency to be so consistent that nothing on this planet can match this forecasting indicator. If you are ready or not, there is a huge market crash coming 30 years after the 1987 crash, and 89 years from the 1929 peak.

This 89-year Fibonacci number is only off 1 year and we have 3, 30 year cycles completed. There are many other dates that all fit very well including the 100 year cycle, like 1918 + 100  years!  Cycle degree wave 3 has already ended in most part, while gold has also ended its Cycle degree mania peak in 2011. You can’t fight cycles escpecially this 30 year cycle. Throw in the solar cycles as well, and this 2021 time period is going to get interesting to say the least. You can’t beat solar cycles, so counting waves with the solar cycles in mind should never be forgotten.

The Death Cross in the DJIA is still going to happen on the daily charts, so longer term stocks are going to get hit with huge price declines. (Deflation) This fall will tell us more, which should be followed by a massive gold and stock market rally lasting into the mid-2019 time period. Deflation is the real threat as the USD will remain strong during the entire time, except by the end of this year. The USD can crash and burn sending gold and stocks back up, in a wild bear market rally that will shock stock and gold investors alike.

Since all my wave analysis is dedicate to Cycle degree, it makes it easy to forecast any SC and GSC degree future peaks. This 30 year cycle is not going away folks as the next 3 cycle peaks would be 2041, 2071 and 2101. How these 30 year cycles form is my speciality which only my paid one on one clients get to see in detail. Of course all this imformation is all out there for free, but only a few will do the work required to confirm these cycles. Many of my indicators have been developed in-house as I do not need any expert to tell me when the markets and gold are going to crash.

We are heading into a deflationary crash folks, where all static investors will get slaughtered as they all become trapped. Being invested at the top of a Death Cross is financial suicide, yet most people are oblivious to what’s going to happen.

The EWP is what you design it to be. If you just want mindless day trading setups, while missing every major move, then that is what you will get. We get from the markets what we want, and if you don’t have a clear goal of what you want planned out, then your hopes and dreams will not get realized.

In well over 2 years 3 months, not a single person has suggested that they are switching over to Cycle degree wave analysis as it requires real money trading to confirm it all. 99.999% of all wave analysts have no skin in the game so it would take someone special to keep Cycle degree analysis going into the future. This blog may only run until Cycle degree wave IV has completed, after which Elliott Wave 5.0 could go dark permanently.

I will never waste my time and money shorting popular companies and indices, as all the short players on this planet are trying to do the same thing. Betting the markets when they are going down is not a game for sissies, as you have to have impeccable timing to make them work well.

 

 

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TSLA Record High Update

This may be my last posting regarding Tesla as it may delist and go private. SpaceX is already private and TSLA may soon join SpaceX. The short players have been getting burned as close to 31% of the entire TSLA float has been shorted. Investopedia is an excellent site to get information about any market meanings and technical indicators.

They do a big spread about TSLA short players and how they get squeezed. Still TSLA is also approaching a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, but we may never find out if we can’t get private price charts on TSLA. Many companies have delisted in the past so it’s not that uncommon.

The Gold/Tsla ratio is a bit better at 3.4:1, down from an extreme of 1.13:1. I’m sure TSLA stock will not hold up, and sooner or later it will take out my 4th wave support at the $140 price level.

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SP500 2000-2018 Review

Many smart analysts have compared ourpresent 2018 pattern to the 2000 peak pattern, and yes they look very similier. The valuations today are about twice as much today as when the dotcom mania of  2000 imploded.  Will it implode again? Of course it will, this hyped up, max leverage world is going to reverse and deflation is going to ravage this world which we have not seen in 100 years. Any asset class that is not secured or protected will take a hit as prices will start to crash.

This is going to be a Cycle degree wave 4 crash, just like gold and since part of a flat is the same as part of a zigzag, I can see the markets syncing up with gold later this year.

Gold and stocks may even rally together once we start on the “B” wave rally in Primary degree.  Then gold and stocks will dance together in a 1-2 year decline that could send the sp500 down to 750 and gold below $500. Sp500 below 1500 is the bare minimum and that just gets us into the previous 4th waves, not even near any bottom.

Gold should dip well below $800 and when this gold price stabilizes bit then the markets should not be too far behind gold. We could see a wild triangle rally in both SP500 and gold, which will seal their fates for the 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.  The whole world is invested sitting on top of Death Crosses, so it will be a big deflatioary crash that not to many investors think that can happen. Gold will always have 30 year cycles, so the markets will just weave in and out during the same time period.

Why such a big deflationary crash is coming, is due to the world wide fertility rate decline, which has been in full swing since the 1950’s. Birthrates also crash after each stock market crash so smaller and smaller generations numbers are being born. This has happened many times and most notable in 2010 when I read a fertility crash after a market crash.

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DJIA Weekly Chart 2009-2018 Review

By any metric you want to use this inflationary world is going to come crashing down and investors have no clue that it’s about to start happening this year. I have many in-house indicators as well that nobody gets to see except for, one on one clients, that have paid me some sort of consulting fees. There are no real limits to consulting fees, if your good.  I would be crazy to give out any investment advice, as it is clear to me that investors always get burned. 2015-2016 saw a nice correction which was the 4th wave in Intermediate degree. Any large degree 4th wave is also a warning that one more bullish phase is coming but that will also be the last chance for stocks bulls to make any money. The majority never win at this game as they always go down with the ship made out of paper!

At this time I can already see that the gold sector and the stock sectors are going to sync up, and it should be more obvious by the end of this year around the November 21st

date. This is a best guess scenerio, but if it comes close, then the DJIA will also rally with gold for the entire bearish counter rally to come in 2019. If the DJIA comes to a rest at the 15,000 price level it would only be on a temporary basis at best, lasting into 2019.

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Facebook Is Not Going To The moon!

Just in case FB investors don’t know, but Facebook is doomed just like all other Nasdaq related stocks. Facebook is running out of people as even the younger crowd is bored with it. After all how many cat and dog tricks are there? This rally that could be just finishing is just another bearish rally, but a small one to boot. If such a small counter rally can get the FB bulls all excited again, then they are pretty easy to fool on any counter rally of larger degree levels. Still, even if I had the available cash I personally would not short FB, Apple or any other popular stock, that many are also trying to short. TSLA also has an open gap, below present prices.

Elon Musk thinks he is bigger than the entire market, as he is constantly fighting the TSLA bears with his own stock purchases.

 

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Apple: Another Price Peak?

This morning Apple hit another price peak before it reversed. Any new record high could be the last record high that may take decades before it is ever achieved again. Warren Buffet is sitting on a big pile of cash, and that alone should be a warning that stock market investors should be building up cash positions. Just about every tech titan have massive cash positions, so they are already to buy low once the opportunity arises again. The peak seems to be $209.50 so far and Apple would have to crash to $190 to close off this huge gap. By any metric you want to use all the markets are in the biggest inflated stock market in history and when it gets serious in correcting, prices will head south.

Even the Warren Buffet indicator is flashing serious downside warnings as it shows extreme valuations. The Gold/Apple ratio also created a new record high at 5.84:1 this morning so.  The lower the price of gold goes and Apple does not follow, then this Gold/Apple ratio will only get worse.

I’m sure you are reading about all the share buy back programs being implimented, with Apple being no exception. I think company initiated buyback programs rips off all those rich investors as it is a clear signal that they can waste their money buying their own shares back at world record highs.  All their trying to do is manipulate their own stocks higher to appease rich investors.  The amount of money big corporations spend to prop up their share price, Apple alone could have launched a mission to mars many times over, and even stop of on Titian for a little sidetrip. 🙂 Hey, I would love to see that Apple Logo on a big Falcon 9 heavy rocket.

When high tech companies start paying dividends, then this company is signaling that, “Hey we got so much money we don’t know what to do with our cash”! So they give cash away to investors, who do and have done absolutely “nothing” to enhance the company itself.  Did investors work on the production line? No, they are leaches and are just along for the ride. If investors ride along with a trillion dollar company, then how much will they lose once Apple stock crashes by 70%?

Running with the bulls is dangerous, as it takes nothing to get trampled to death by the herd!

High inflated stock prices, ridiculous high real estate prices is not good for anyone escpecially for the younger generations. 2-3 years from now I’m sure we will have a new reality that no one expects today. Deflation is the real threat to investors and the Fed is fighting the very same inflation that they created in the first place.

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BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cycle Degree Peak 2007-2018 Review

 

If Warren Buffet keeps buying blue chip stocks then I would say he just about owns the DJIA with all his holdings. He bought into many stocks at record highs, with Apple being one of the biggest buys at record highs. Invest with the herd and you die by the herd, so I fully expect BRK.A to crash right along with all other indices around the world. The world is going into a major deflationary crash, which even Warren Buffet is powerless to stop. It will not surprise me to eventually see BRK below the $100,000 price level.

That is only the middle of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree as sometimes they push even lower, like the markets did in the 2009 bottom. Only the rich can play this game as the rich own 80% of the markets. Real Estate prices around the world are crashing already, as the rich can no longer afford to hang on to investment properties where prices  are falling faster than leaves of a maple tree in the fall!  Top smart money mangers have already sent letters to thier clients warning them. My friends and family members will watch it on the 6’oclock news this fall.

It is the world fertility crash that is going to completley change this world to a deflationary world. Our dying boomer generation are permanent sellers of real estate and they may even have several or more empty homes to get rid off.  For those than can wait 3 years or so, they will see a different stock, gold and housing landscape, from anything imaginable today.

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DJIA Intraday Turning And Crash Review!

http://www.etf.com/sections/monthly-etf-flows/etf-monthly-fund-flows-july-2018

 

Investors poured $26.8 billion into stocks last month, and this month they are sitting on a Death Cross at this 90 min intraday scale. They are investing when the markets are at world record highs never seen before in history.  Investors are putting money into the markets just down from a historic Cycle degree wave 3 has already peaked.

Talk about brave investors buying on the dips. This kind of a move always coincides with a major top, and once they realize that the DJIA has crashed to 15,000 then we should hear news about funds flowing out again. We are in such a big inflated stock and housing bubble that nobody can afford anything decent to even rent in.

This has all happen before just in a different time period. Gold has finished a 30 year silver/gold mania peak n 2011, and it is far from finishing it’s correction. This is just the 90 min Death Cross set-up, as I have more Death Crosses than I can count! This is my third stock market crash I have called, even though my degree levels were of the charts!

There is a time to invest, and a time to sell and trade, and this record high is not my idea of smart investing.

Apple still has to flop as the rest wil drag everything down. No Little $1000 phone will stop that from happening. I love Apple products as I do all my work on my second iMac.

If you don’t think that the markets will crash then just spend a few hours and research everything about the world wide fertility crash that has been going on since the 1950’s.

I use my own indicators that I have developed over the years, and it is all based on gold and its ratio. I might have 10-15 of these ratios in a book and my record high expensive ratio for the DJIA was about 17.24:1. This means it took 17.24 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DOW. This record has been blown out of the water, as this morning the Gold/DJIA ratio hit 21:1! Yikes!

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Apple 10 Day Mother Of All Gaps!

About the only “FAANG” stock to still take a hit is Apple. Every hedge fund loves this stock and Warren Buffet owns billions of shares. The huge open gap to the upside is more like an exhaustion gap, and it will get filled again. Facebooks gap may never get closed as these growth stories do come to screeching halts and even disappear!

Yes, I’m very bearish on all asset classes except for the US dollar. The world investors are sitting on a Death Cross that they know little about, and they may wake up once the stock markets crash right along with gold.  I keep gold ratios on about 10-15 asset classes which are all in-house indicators that tell me when any asset class is out line, to the cash price of gold. This Gold/Apple ratio now sits at a ratio of 6:1 the most expensive reading in my records. For the last 2 months it’s been under 7:1, so that tells me the Gold/Apple ratio is hitting a brick wall!  Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes and Apple is no different.

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Will The Nifty Crash As well?

This is what they call a one day chart with nothing but diagonal wave structures which are not important enough to spend all my time counting them out. What I’m after is the last peak of this run as India will not be unscathed in the comming deflationary crash. So far the Nifty has already turned and August may see the continuation of a bearish trend. Every new record high could be the last record high, and the record high for all of 2008. India produces many commodaties that are traded all over the world, so when commodaties implode so will the Nifty.

The record high to beat again, is 11,366 which peaked today. I have a strong following from India as I talk to traders about the Nifty in my neighborhood. Hopefully this peak will hold but otherwise, I have to keep it in mind that any extreme can still push to a higher extreme, before they implode! Without a doubt the world is going to suffer a major deflationary crash, where nothing including gold will hold up, except for the US dollar. My personal trading account is already mostly in US dollars and they will remain there for the rest of my life, as I prefer to trade in US funds anyway.  When I convert back to CAD at any time, I get an extra 33% kicker to boot.

Gold and silver was in a 30 year mania bubble in 2011, and its crash and bear market is just starting to get going. India is also a huge gold market, so to say that bullion holders in India are not going to get hurt is an understatement.  Even cotton prices are set to implode as all commodaties will take a hit.

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