Nasdaq Intraday Crash Update

The Nasdaq is the furthest along in its bearish move as it’s closer to what might end up being a double bottom and a Head and Shoulder pattern.  It could take the rest of May to find out as the right shoulder is what’s important. A bullish bottom could push the Nasdaq back up, but if the bears are still in control, then the right shoulder will never hold.

Even though I have seen these H&S patterns many times before, they can all react differently.  If you use your hand and see it as a “Middle Finger” and two knuckles, then chances are good that the market is sending tech investors a signal.

The trade war is all about a tech war and it’s disrupting every major distribution channel around the world. It’s no longer just one thing for any bearish fundamentals as climate change is supposed to be destroying our world!

I’m bearish longer-term until I see the Gold/Nasdaq ratio get much cheaper. Sure the Gold/Nasdaq ratio at 5.7:1 is better, but that is still miles away from becoming cheap. The commercial hedgers are not that bearish so that can produce some surprise moves as well.

If you think that 5G is going to produce utopia here on earth then think again, when there is not enough electricity being produced in the world to support it. One big solar flare can send us back to the stone age pretty quick but yet the majority of experts ignore the power of the sun and its cycles.

It would be a sick joke to have to build nuclear reactors just to keep the internet of things running. (5G).

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E-Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

Between the five indices cover none of them have the exact same wave count. They are all different and I have to try different short term wave counts as well.

Right now I see a declining diagonal pattern about 7 days old, which could give us a surprise price rally. There is no price support worth mentioning because most price support forecasts never hold before the digital ink even drys. Longer term I’m bearish and it’s not rocket science to dig up a reason why!

The trade war is on everyone’s lips and it will not be over anytime soon. Of course, the President thinks he can keep “Tweeting” trying to keep the markets afloat.  Sooner or later the “Tweets” no longer will have the same effect as investors will get bored with them.

The SP500 is not loaded down with as many tech-related companies, but the Nasdaq sure is. I will post the Nasdaq as its chart is close to short-term support.

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Tesla $10 Price Forecast?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3465547-morgan-stanley-cuts-bear-case-tesla-10

 

It never fails that when a market goes down analysts come up with all the reasons why. A worst-case $10 price crash forecast may be a bit too radical even for my bearish outlook, but it sure would not surprise me if Tesla eventually did crash to below $40.

Everything about electric cars is overdone as supply is far exceeding demand. Tesla’s stock price was another mania move on par with the Tulip Mania.

Figuring out the top is a real challenge and I may have to adjust some diagonal wave structures which would contain the  Cycle degree wave 3 top.

Don’t get excited about this thinking to buy on the dips, because the stock can crash and fill that little gap at $40. Between $30-$40 Tesla would have good price support.

A few auto-pilot crashes sure can turn investors off and besides that TSLA is on a cash burn that it can’t maintain.

Either way the start of solar cycle 25 could send Tesla stock price soaring again.

The Gold/TSLA ratio is at 6.20:1 this morning which is a bit better than the 1.13 expensive ratio I do have. This ratio still has to spread as 6:1 is still far too expensive

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Brent Crude: Will It Ever Crash?

This is the July 2019 Brent futures contract which I am working as a potential triangle in Cycle degree. Since the July 2008 peak of $148 Brent crude has never pushed higher in close to 11 years.  During this time Brent crashed twice producing spectacular lows in the process.

Can Brent crude crash and make one more major bottom, or will it soar to new record highs? All the wild fundamentals would suggest higher prices, even with the tainted oil problem being worked on. One minute supplies can be choked and the next thing you know Brent crude flows.

Regardless of how any shortage may come about, the commercial traders are sitting on net long positions. With those odds going against the bears, my wave count has a slim chance of coming true.

Of course, the end of solar cycle 24 may only be 1-2 years away which has been a magnet for oil prices. The 2008 crash, “End of the solar cycle 23”,  is a prime example of how fast oil crashed at that time.

The part of the world that is in sheer panic about climate change, should stop and think about what impact the sun and its cycles have on all life on earth.

My Gold/Brent ratio database goes back just  1 year with one expensive reading of a little over 15:1, today we are sitting at 17.7:1 which is still very expensive when compared to the US cash gold price.

The chart above just produced another spike to the upside so at least a correction is due. In the long run, there are no shortages of oil in the world but there sure are distribution problems, created by two wars,  one war on fossil fuels and our present trade war.

The war drums may also be sounding with Iran but as I see it, President Trump will try and avoid any major conflict if he can.

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SP500 E-Mini Intraday Gyrations Update

Between the 5 indices, I generally watch, each one has a slightly different pattern and in the case of the SP500, I have one small zigzag that doesn’t fit as well as I would like.

At the 2895 price level, we have several previous 4th wave peaks which also have some spikes in them.  Draw a line across the 2895 price level and we also have an H&S pattern which could also be very bearish. In a bull market that right shoulder would never hold but when investors are in a bearish mood, that right shoulder will just keep on crashing.

It’s a full moon today so next week could end up being a wild ride indeed. What else is new?  I would rather see some fast action than when the markets are in a sideways pattern.

Either way longer term I’m bearish, but nothing can stop a wild counter rally when we least expect them.  A Minor degree wave 1-2 can work but a surprise rally produced by a stock bull attack sure can create a ruckus.

The commercials are not that bearish so this leaves it wide open for moves in both directions.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is at 2.26:1 and it’s been hitting this 2:1 ratio brick wall since May 2018. Longer term we may end up close to a 1:1 ratio but it will take a long time to get there.

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Walmart: A Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Perspective

When I first looked at this chart I freaked, as this chart is a diagonal wave structure nightmare. Staring at it for an hour or two first is necessary. This is the first look I had at WMT in years, but I think WMT is important to watch considering the trade war with China was cranked up on Wednesday.

For now, I will leave the above chart with only two trend lines where the top line touches three peaks. Once WMT crashes through the bottom trendline then we would be at one higher degree.

I believe that the 2013 peak was the end of wave 3 in Intermediate degree followed by an expanded pattern and then 5 waves down in Minute degree. The five waves down in Minute degree started at the beginning of 2015 and lasted a bit under a year.

Since the 2016 bullish start, I had trouble figuring the 5 waves as it also looks like another zigzag. Then again in early, 2018 Walmart’s stock imploded followed by yet another set of 5 waves looking like an impulse, which is labeled “A” wave in Minute degree.

From the late 2018 bottom WMT started up again but this time the C5 wave has started out with small overlapping waves. Walmart could break to new record highs but it can remain very short when we are so close to a triple top.

One worst case scenario is that the 2018 peak is the real top and we are heading up a “B” wave in Intermediate degree. I’m sure there are not daily limits with most single stocks so any “C” wave crash can move very fast and violent.

Walmart has already warned that prices could go up and shoppers will be the first to see if the shelves don’t get filled or you can’t find coffee on sale anymore.

I have no Gold/WMT ratio database setup as I have to do some back checking to get those numbers. At a 12.6:1 ratio today I’m assuming that this is an expensive Gold/WMT ratio.

 

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Mini DOW Intraday Bullish Moves Update

So far this market is still going in the direction I was anticipating but we could be in another correction.  At 26,050 we are running into previous 4th wave highs, that could act like a brick wall.

Blasting past resistance sure would help to keep my bottom 4th wave count alive a little bit longer.  For now, it looks like a diagonal run is forming as this wave 3  looks like another zigzag to me at this intraday scale.

Every 5 waves in the zigzag alternates in quality, one set (A5) can be smooth without any visible waves, while the second 5 wave set (B5), has more obvious subdivisions.

If the bigger bullish picture is alive then this run could last the rest of May, but if this run is just a short term bear market rally, then we would be lucky to last into next week.

The moving averages offer no special insight at this time but the DOW came to a halt at the 50-Day MA line.

Of course, gold reacted to the bullish markets by crashing.

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DOW Mini Intraday Chart And Impending Rally

Yesterday the DOW E-Mini hit a bottom and then started to rally again.  This is a 45-minute chart but I also review the daily chart at the same time.

The possibility of a bigger counter rally is real if we just finished another expanded flat in Minor degree.

We also had an intraday double bottom at the 25,222 price level and we should know shortly if this is going to hold.  At the 26,000 price level, we would start to run into resistance, but if the DOW screams past the previous 4th wave top, then there would be a good chance of the DOW to head back up to the 27,000 price level.

That would be a violent bullish move, as all the “Protective Buy Stop” orders are above our present prices. This trade war is now the largest in US history, and it remains to be seen how effective it will become.

The April peak was well short of a new record high, and it had a funny pattern I didn’t like as well.  Those two things can always spark a surprise bullish move.

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S&P 500 Mini Intraday

Market activity during night hours may be dominated by traders from around the world as local investors may just be waking up. The big boys who bring us new IPOs try to time them for the peak of a bullish cycle. Flooding the markets with IPO’s is a sign of a major top as stocks like LYFT, and UBER fail to make investors happy.

I’m sure we have started a 5 wave sequence and for now, I will be looking for a Minor degree 5 wave run.  Of course, any run like this doesn’t last that long as being out by just one degree will produce “Surprise” counter-rallies that would move outside of the two trend lines.

The goal is a potential “A” wave in Primary degree as that would also give us a  short term buy signal.  Any “B” wave could be very small but might drag out a few months or so.

Folks, we are heading into new territory and any corrective wave count I can come up with, may not last very long at all.

In the last year or so of solar cycles, markets tend to crash but a few times this has not happened like in 1996.

 

 

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Intraday DOW 30 Mini Crash Update

This is a 30-min intraday chart of the DOW and it looks like the bearish trend is continuing after the April top. The DOW top did not go to new record highs but ended up falling well short. For now, a slightly truncated or shortened 5th wave will have to do, until this 5 wave sequence has all played out.

I started using a Minor degree run which can be adjusted later on as reviews become necessary. Any Cycle degree top would need at least one “A” wave in Primary degree for part one of a Cycle degree correction.

I’m sure there are daily trading limits with most of these indicies, because if there were no limits many of these plunges would be far deeper and last longer much longer.

We are 90 years from the 1929 crash which makes it 3, 30-year cycles that have completed. Except for some unexpected counter rallies this bearish phase could last for all of May.

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Quick Facebook Review

I have no love for anything related to Facebook even though the majority have been pushing the stock higher. FB has now started to back off in price gains as the problems with FB are too many to address.

If it wasn’t for all the GAPs in the FB chart I would not post anything, but this chart looks like Swiss Cheese with any GAP always having a 90% chance of getting filled.  The July 2018 GAP might never get closed no matter how much the Facebook bulls wish for it to happen.

In November/December 2018 we had a small double bottom followed by a big bounce that may all be just a big bear market rally.  In order for this 2019 rally to be part of a bear market rally then eventually, FB has to crash below the 2018 low at the $123 price level.

I don’t have much of a Gold/FB ratio database set up but today we are sitting at about 6.84:1.

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SP500 Decline Update

At this time the SP500 produced a 7 month double top before it started to decline.  So far the SP500 is forming the best and when this impending 5 wave decline moves dramatically out of character then I will look at building my alternate wave counts. I don’t think we are near any Minor degree move just yet,  but if it lasts all of May, I would consider that pretty lucky.

We are looking at a possible Cycle degree correction which will take longer and a few more years to play out.

All this bearish market action based on a tweet from President Trump! How does an ordinary person compete with people that are trying to manipulate the markets?

Over 1.5 Trillion dollars were wiped off the books on President Trump’s tweets and it seems it’s not stopping anytime soon.

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SP500 Intraday Gap: How Long Will It Stay Open?

Last night the SP500 imploded, creating a huge open gap in its wake. The big question is, “When will the gap get fill”? If I was very bullish then chances are good that this gap will get filled this month but if a bigger bearish picture is emerging then this gap could stay open for many years.  For now, I think the gap will remain open but not all indices produced open gaps.

We have many different tops with the SP500 at the 2960 price level producing a great looking double top as well. If the gap stays open by the end of this week then the gap could hang around for a long time. The gap will become important far into the future, but then the majority will have forgotten about it as well.

The Trump tweets caused this gap as at the same time the VIX exploded. Just goes to show how Social Media can damage a so-called bull market.

Social Media is  “Mob Rule”, as emotional investors decided to unload after the tweeting action of a President!

What this move did show is that the Gold/SP500 ratio hit 2.3:1 this morning which is the second most expensive Gold/SP500 ratio since September 2018.

 

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Beyond Meat, Sucking In The Green Investors!

When I heard about Beyond Meat (BYND) going public it reminded me of  Pets.com back in the dotcom bubble era. My opinions are strictly personal but imagine a company with no real sales tapping into the “green” mentality that will deliver all its vegan burgers with fossil fuels!

Even Leonardo DiCaprio, the fake “Green” has invested in this company who flies around in jets.  Next thing we may hear is that Al Gore is buying shares.

It was a very slick IPO as they timed it very well with the peak of the Nasdaq. Suck as much money as they can from investors when valuations are at their extremes already is pretty normal. There is no way in telling at this time, but insane moves can bring on more insane moves until investors get tired with a company that has no earnings but plenty of losses.

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FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. 2000-2016 Review

I try and avoid wave counting with single stocks as they can move on their own, against the main trend.  Of course, when an asset goes up we hope it will fly to the moon and make us rich!  We are looking at over 18 years of chart history where there seems to be a 7-year cycle of crashes or bearish bottoms.

A reader mentioned this stock to me so I have to warn readers that this FCX stock is just a first look using EWP but there are other patterns that are just as important to see.  Most commodities have diagonal wave structures and this FCX is no exception.

Besides the huge H&S top, we also have a big H&S pattern for the bottom at about the $3.50 price level.  The 2008-2009 crash matches the end of solar cycle 23, while the 2011 FCX peak matches the solar cycle 24 peak. The solar cycles have a huge impact on this stock, but it also alternates between attracting and repelling prices.

I didn’t have the room to fill in the 2011 peak but this sure matches many of the other Cycle degree wave 3 peaks I do have.

After the 2016 bottom, I have no wave positions labeled as we are also in a wedge that can send this stock into a nosedive just as quickly as it can break out and soar.

We do have a $10 price support level that developed in the last few years, so there may be bullish hope yet.

I have no Gold/FCX ratio database set up but readers that do follow this stock should create and maintain a Gold/FCX ratio.  I do have a few rough calculations but need to do more detailed calculations.  At the 2011 peak, the ratio was about 31:1 after which FCX crashed into the early 2016 bottom where we had a 300:1 ratio. Today the ratio is at 102:1, so FCX  can still rally.

Since I mentioned the solar cycles I added the numbers in black for quick reverence. At this time, solar cycle 24 has not completed, which may still take all of 2020 to complete.  Solar cycle 19 was the tallest for the beginning of the Space Age with solar cycle 24 being the smallest.

Many readers think following the sun cycles has no importance, but they have a very good track record driving and repelling prices.

If you’re trying to fight climate change then you are looking at the chart of the biggest culprit… our sun!

This is a very good graph of what solar cycle 25 may look like as it could also be very short.

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DJIA 2011-2019 Review

I’m a bit behind with my DJIA wave count as it has not pushed to record highs, at least not yet. These moves can frustrate any wave analysts, but ignoring them will not help them go away.

Since the 2018 peak, I had to go back and look for extensions that may have occurred. In this case, it’s the Minor and Minute degrees I extended, much as I did with the Nasdaq and SP500.

I also created a Minor degree 4th wave triangle, which would be a prime price target for some very strong price support in the future.

There are daily trading limits in the index futures, so it’s pretty hard for huge single crashes to develop as they did in 1929 or 1987.

It may still take all of April to play out, but eventually, the ending of Solar Cycle 24 will pull stock prices down, much like what happened at the tail end of 2018.

The Gold/DJIA ratio has changed little and is still around the 20.8:1 range, which is expensive by any stretch of the imagination when compared to the gold price.

 

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SP500 2011-2019 Weekly Chart Review

This is the weekly chart of the June SP500 contract. Our present 2019 stock rally is about 43 points from breaking out but even it stays at the peak today, I will try my extended wave count.

It was the 2011 bottom that is important as it matched the “Peak Gold Mania” of 2011 as well. The other big event that happened at that time was that solar cycle 24 hit its first peak in September 2011.

Basically, I extended the Minor degree part which makes the 2015-2016 correction a wave 3-4 bear market. Since then this market just doesn’t want to stop, but I think resistance is building up. In the last 15-16 months, we are looking at a potential triple top.

The present top also could produce a “Right Shoulder” which if the SP500 is very bearish, the markets will not blast to another record high.

The hedgers are no help at all as the commercials only have a very small net short position.

On a daily chart, the SP500 is still in a golden cross position, but a good correction can produce a death cross with little effort.

The 4th wave bottom support in late December 2018 is also where the 200-day MA is sitting. In order for the SP500 to hit the 200-day MA again, the entire 2019 bull market must eventually be completely retraced. That would put the SP500 below the 2300 price level.

I use the Gold/SP500 ratio and it is always a good idea to make calculations when the markets approach record highs. The record expensive ratio was 2.41:1, with today’s calculation coming in at 2.28:1.

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Update

The Nasdaq finally created a new world record high today at 7715.  In the next day or so it still could push higher which would make the present spike a bit longer. The longer the spike the better as that usually indicates a longer impending correction.  Correction? It all depends on how big any impending correction will be.

If all this bullish hype is going to continue then we should be just looking for a correction, right?  The other side of the coin is that this bull market is coming to an end at a double top creating a big H&S at the same time.

A temporary correction would just create the “Right Shoulder” but then blast to another new record high.  The 2019 rally was one vertical move as good subdivisions were hard to count out as it’s loaded with diagonal waves.

Easter will be a full moon so by next week it could get very interesting.

Commercials are barley net short so they don’t really confirm any bearish scenario I can come up with, but that also means this market can go in any direction.  All it takes is some “Bad News” from any source in the world and the emotional investors could run for the hills.

Protective sell stops are stacking up below present prices, mostly around the bull market bottoms of corrections.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is more of an objective look at stocks if they are cheap or expensive when compared to the US dollar gold cash price.  My record expensive ratio is 6.38:1, today this ratio sits at 6.03:1. The Nasdaq is about as expensive as it has ever been, so it sure would be ripe for a major correction.

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Near Record Highs

The Nasdaq is getting close to new record highs which would soon be a double top, as well as an H&S pattern being set up.   I extended the past for now which will allow the Nasdaq to break to new record highs.

Right shoulders would have to break out in a very bullish fashion, but if this is still a diagonal bearish rally then the right shoulder would produce resistance.

Other indices are not this close to breaking out so the Nasdaq would be marching to a different drummer again.

It seems nothing is stopping this bull market at this time, but we also know that “Bad News” can come out of nowhere and blindside all those investors that are bullish.

The COT reports for the Nasdaq are just about even which offers no special insight as to any new direction.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has backed off from record-breaking ratios and sits at 5.82:1 this morning.  This is cheaper than the 6.38:1 record established on September 5th, 2018. The Nasdaq is still very expensive when we use gold as money.

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SP500 Daily Chart Review

The market bottomed in December of 2018 and has now been in a bull run that is a bit more than 3 months old.  2940 represents the potential for a huge double top, and a major Head&Shoulder pattern as well.

We have about 60 points to go before the SP500 runs into new record highs. This remains to be seen, in the days or weeks ahead of us. The entire 2019 market rally is very straight with no real corrections in it.

The corrections we did get are diagonal waves and could be an ending to a “C” wave. Now is also a good time to calculate a Gold/SP500 ratio which means little, if we have no database to work with. Not too many take the time to make a few calculations per month, or when faced another potential extreme.

Since September  2018 any 2:41:1 ratio would be expensive when using the gold cash price, this morning the Gold/SP500 ratio was 2.24:1. This is not a record but very close to being very expensive. A cheap Gold/SP500 ratio would be closer to .75:1

Just with those numbers alone, It’s hard to justify looking for another superbull stock market to materialize.

The Golden Cross happen at the 2760 price level which is very bullish, but always lagging in time.  This doesn’t mean that the golded cross will last as the markets can reverse just as easily.

The first Friday of every month jobs report and a full moon could produce another turning so anything can still happen in the short term.

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DJIA, Heading For A Triple Top?

Trying to find a decent wave count has been a challenge, to say the least, and I don’t see it getting any better.  At 26,700 the DJIA is getting near some major resistance, and if the markets have more bullish moves in them, then they could break out to new record highs again.

In the post, I looked for a potential triangle with a very deep “E” wave which still looks like a zigzag to me.   Any zigzag has very good odds that it can get completely retraced, which our present rally is just short of doing.

Last month saw a corrective drop (3 waves) followed by another 3 wave set which can be a small expanded pattern, which doesn’t fit into an “E” wave at this time.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is as expensive as it ever has been, hitting a price brick wall of 20.48:1, from an extreme of 21:1, established in August 2018.

An extreme expensive Gold/DJIA ratio, a triple top, and an inverse wedge or megaphone keep me looking for a bearish move, not some new bullish leg still destined to go to the moon.

If this wave count, lasts all of April I will be surprised as this market sure seems it has no rudder to help stear it.

A 3 month bull market needs a healthy correction or it sure is due one as the March correction isn’t big enough to do it.

 

 

 

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SP500 Intraday Gyrations Update

This is the June 2019 contract and the next one will not be until September 2019. The March contract has expired. Right now this pattern fits well with the Nasdaq but the DJIA is marching to a different drum beat as its correction is far from clean.

The big question will be, “Is it just a correction” (Dip) or will it take out (Retrace) the entire bullish move of 2019 ? A bearish move below the 2320 price level would be a complete retracement and help confirm that this bullish mood was just a big bear market rally.  The 2790 price level seems to have importance as the SP500 has wobbled around that number 4 times already.

Of course, if the stock bears are just taking a coffee break before the next attack, then this 2790 price will never hold.  Right now we also have another small H&S  being set up.

The commercials are net short the SP500 but not by that much. This could make things pretty volatile at least in the short term. Until this market gives us a decent looking correction I will remain bullish,  even though the markets could still go higher.

This planet is suffering from a massive overdose of debt and corruption that is not going to get fixed this year, or next year, or the next! 🙂  Solar cycle #25 will come to the rescue, but that might not happen until late 2020!

 

 

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Nasdaq Intraday Buy On The Dip?

In my opinion, buying into anything that has gone vertical will turn into a disaster because we don’t know how big any dip is going to be. Everybody on the planet thinks this market is going to soar and maybe it will.

If this market is still going to add another super leg to it, then this market has to show or develop something that can clearly work as a correction. That is always a tough call since nothing screws up a wave count worse than another diagonal decline.

So far the Nasdaq has made its last dash to the upside a day after the full moon has arrived which doesn’t happen too often.  March is always a good turning month and we have about 6 trading days left before the end of the month.

If this decline keeps going then the chances get dramatically reduced that a new record high is going to happen in the next week.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is at 5.76:1, which is down from 6.38:1 and still nowhere in being cheap when compared to gold.

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Mini-SP500 Weekly Chart Review

While the majority of investors are pushing the SP500 higher, I’m building the bearish picture.  Most of the bearish pictures I can draw do have multiple choices most of the time. 8 choices would be normal and constantly eliminating anything that will not fit is the name of the game.

A near vertical move with barely a correction could work well as part of a wave 1 pattern and the mainstream analysts are foaming at the mouth in how bullish this setup is.  To confirm the bullish scenario the SP500 would have to continue to soar to much higher price levels, otherwise, we are being blinded by a bunch of smoke and mirrors media news.

There are lots of bearish moves just like this and most of them were fully retraced.  This weekly chart has pushed the SP500 past the 50-day MA, with the 200-day MA still being far below present prices.  The short story on that is that the death cross on this weekly chart is in our future as we are still under the influence of a golden cross that happened in 2009-2010.

Price wise the SP500 must crash well below any support we see and that is before the 200-day MA gets hit.

I’m sure that will happen as flogging a tired stock bull will eventually just piss it off and they could flee in all directions except up.

Commercial traders are not that skewed to the bearish side but bearish all the same.  This also tells me that their positions can change rapidly which will happen once the SP500 gets into another oversold condition.

The Gold/SP500 ratio tells us another story as this morning it was 2.16:1.  We are still very close to a record Gold/SP500 ratio high, so there is nothing that I would consider cheap when compared to the gold price.  In order for the SP500 to become cheap again we need to go below a potential 1:1 ratio or even lower.

 

 

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Shanghai Composite Index (INDEX)

This is the chart that tracks companies on the Shanghai index. This is the S&P created index and for now, is the best I can track the Shanghai index with.  I’m convinced that any fundamental news that comes from  China is controlled by China’s highly efficient propaganda machine.

The fundamentals in China are far worse than anything you may have been reading. It’s not rocket science but the Chinese economy is slowing much faster than we think. China is a nation of zombie, companies, banks, and cities. I could go on and on but the short version is that China is all built on debt, and so far has broken all records making the 2008 crisis seem like a walk in the park.

The peak in 2008 matches a major peak in most of the commodities, which I think is wave 3 in Cycle degree. The bear market has been going on for about 10-11 years and I see it far from being finished before any huge bullish phase comes down the pipeline.

Right now the two trend lines put the Shanghai index in no man’s land and that the present rally is just another bear market rally.  There is a very convincing inverted zigzag I see and they usually get completely retraced. Mind you that could still take a few years to play out especially since solar cycle #24 is still running.

I don’t have a big Gold/Shanghai ratio database accumulated, but enough to give us some extreme readings. A low ratio means that the Shanghai index is cheap when compared to gold.

Today this ratio sits at 2.37:1, which is down from an extreme of 6.61:1. In 1996 this ratio was 1.29:1 and the Shanghai may even come back to this cheap ratio.

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Review

Since late 2018 the Nasdaq has created a bottom and has been on a bullish move that is hard to imagine that it could still be in a bear market rally.  Only time can give us an answer and at this time there still is a good chance that a new record high is going to be established. If that is the case then the right side should eventually push that flat line up.

A right shoulder in a bull market would push much higher again, but if a bearish turn awaits us then the right shoulder would just crash.  I would give that right shoulder about a 50-60% price retracement and after that, a complete bull market failure can still happen.

At the beginning of bull markets, right shoulders fail to hold back the bears most of the time, but when we are closer to the end of a bullish phase, the right shoulder is less likely to hold.

Last week the Market Vane report showed that on the 12th  there were 68% bulls present. That is down from a 24 month high of 91%.  The more bulls present in the survey the less chance of a big bunch of stock bulls still to come in.  Of course, the only way the bullish herd can push it higher is if they just came out of a secret tunnel they’ve been hiding in. 🙂

God knows the world has been on a massive tunnel digging spree, maybe there is a big group of stock bulls living in the Center of the Earth!

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is always at work and you won’t find any ratio in your analytical toolbox. The Gold/Ratio of anything always gives us a reading when something is expensive or cheap when compared to a Troy ounce of gold, in US dollars.

A cheap reading once was 1.18:1 and my most expensive reading was 6.38:1. Today the Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 5.61:1 which still makes the Nasdaq very expensive.

 

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NIL:ZMA Amsterdam AEX Index (INDEX)

I started to look at the Netherlands stock market with the EWN (ETF)  but when I saw this ZMA index, its pattern was completely different. In the long run, ZMA should act just like it did in 2003 and then decline again like it did in 2008.

For over 18 years the ZMA index has produced nothing but bear market rallies.  Of course, the present top needs to crash or decline to help confirm my suspicions.  I can draw you all sorts of subjective trend lines or wedges if you like, but it would still take a few years for a new bearish decline to show itself.

It looks like a triangle could be in progress, and we would need the “E” wave to show itself.  The 2000 peak would be the Cycle degree peak but I used my idealized commodities charts to count this out.  After the Cycle degree 4th wave has arrived then it will be important to know that we will have at least two options to choose from.

From the 2000 peak to the 2009 bottom solar cycle #23 was in progress, after which solar cycle #23 handed control over to solar cycle #24.  I just shake my head when people think that the sun has no bearing on climate change and life on earth.

I have no Gold/ZMA ratio database set up but I took two readings as a starter. March 11 gave us a high reading of 2.41:1 while the 2009 low reading was about 4.73:1.

In general visitors from the Netherlands are about 8-9th on the ranking list.

I do not have the time to keep the ZMA wave count maintained as it can take years to fine tune any wave count.

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Quick Look At The DJTA Index 2009-2019

This DJTA provides yet another look at the markets and the transportation industries. Since this is more like a “First Look” at this index I’m sure future adjustments will have to be made due to the fact that a Minor degree move at this time could be out by one degree.

I left the Primary degree 5th wave uncapped due to lack of space. Leaving any 5th wave uncapped means that wave analysts have no clue where they really are, or that they quit trying to decipher the next higher degree.

I don’t know where we really are as well, because it takes years babysitting and maintaining  any wave count before we can get the courage to trade it.

If the bigger bear market is still coming then this index will have no choice but to register a new record low in 2019. In order for that to happen a complete retracement of all 2009 gains must happen.

I do not have a Gold/DJTA ratio database set-up but we have two that will give us an idea of how cheap or expensive the DJTA is when compared to US dollar-priced gold.

Today this ratio sits at 7.82:1 while at the 2009 bottom low this ratio was about 2.27:1. We want to see this ratio to compress making the DJTA index cheaper.  We may never see the Gold/DJTA ratio of 2.27:1 again, but we may see 4:1.

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SP500 Midcap E-Mini Update

This S&P Midcap bullish phase produced another wild ride to the upside. It looks like 5 waves up as the subdivisions were very small.  A single zigzag crash ending in December 2018 can make all this fit into a diagonal set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.

The Midcaps found resistance just a bit above the 200-day MA line which still leaves the Midcaps under the influence of a  Death Cross.  March can also give us fantastic turning times in both directions, but we have to have the patience for this to play out in the short-term.

I don’t have a big database on any Gold/Midcap ratios but today we are sitting at 1.48:1.

The commercial hedgers are still net short the S&P Midcaps but not by all that much. In other words they can swing to a net long position fairly quick.

 

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DJIA Daily Chart Death Cross Review

Since the December 26, 2018 crash low the DJIA exploded in an upward path that any sane wave counter would see five waves up and make a call that the Dow is heading to new record highs. Maybe?. The Death Cross at the 25,100 price level should give the stock bulls reason to pause as there is only a slim chance that a Golden Cross is still to come and even if a  Golden Cross did happen, it may only be a short-lived event.

Commercial hedgers are not all that deep with net short positions so counter rallies can happen.  I’m looking for a diagonal 5 waves down so another zigzag could play out, with the price traveling to a new record low.

Complete retracement will help to confirm that this stock rally was just another bear market rally.  This pushes any Primary degree “A” wave into the future and fear has a funny habit of creating mini-panics which can turbo charge any decline.

At 20:1 the Gold/DJIA ratio makes the DJIA still as expensive as ever so that alone keeps me from looking for bullish wave counts.

 

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