Category Archives: INDICES

SP500 Daily Chart: Death Cross Watch!

This Sp500 rally has now started to fit much better as a newer high has been reached. The last five waves are a diagonal set of 5 waves. Even looks like a triangle pattern.

In the gold market this exact pattern fits into modern wave count as a bullish move not a bear market rally. This  SP500 is on a small bear market rally and it will retrace itself.  All this chart has to do is make a sudden drop and the 50-day MA will slice the 200-day MA and then the market investors are sitting on a Death Cross. Gold is doing the same thing so a huge part of all assets are going to see price crashes along with stocks.

Fundamentals do not work at the extremes and if your not a contrarian in this business then you become the victim. Do you want to be the victim when the stock bulls start falling from the sky?  The EWP is always contrarian and if you have the same wave count as the stock bulls mode suggests then our wave counts are totally wrong. Every wave counter gets caught in a trap this way, and I use their wave counts as something not to do.  When a wave count is wrong you can always bet against it! From a Cycle degree perspective, all internet wave counters are counting all the “bad” wave counts for me. They save me a lot of work, thank god! 🙂

Apple may have topped and the same with Netflix, a few more need to topple as the falling “elephants” will crush any bulls that remains standing.

In Cycle degree the SP500 match gold very well, the only difference is they are a bit out of sync but gold and the SP500 could crash the same by the time the end of  Cycle degree wave 4. Won’t that surprise the gold bulls!

My intraday wave counts are going to suffer, as I’m not a day trader and never will be. I’m sure the stock markets crash will coincide with gold’s $800 bottom so I could even pick up the count when that happens.  It is far more important to watch the gold market and the anticipated swings in gold are going to be wild.

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Reversal?

I’ve come to the conclusion that investors don’t care about the EWP or don’t use it that much because it is too cryptic.

It’s the traders that might use it most often as that is about all that people that will make money in this bear market that nobody expects. There is going to be a rude awaking folks, and if you try to figure out in which direction this market can go then I will tell you a fundamental truth that nobody will tell you.

Stock investors are sitting on a time bomb called a Death Cross and they do not know it, Yet!  Gold also made a trip down this morning and downside break out is near. The stock market could follow as this has all happened before.

My Intraday stock updates are going to be reduced as I will spend my time with the gold crash and the short trade.  Please do not waste your time to figure out what fundamentals still apply because you can’t.  If you are not a contrarian then you become the victim and my wave counts don’t want you to vecome the victum as this market will crash as we go into the summer and fall.  Chances are extemely high at this point, that it looks like gold and stocks are all going the same way.  With nearly the same wave count.

When I see something like this being setup it can fit with my wave counts or it has to be dismissed. It has no impact on any of my wave positions so it has a high chance of happening. We will find out when gold crashes below $800, as the DOW should not be too far behind to reverse as well.

My gold wave counts are now being tested 24 hours perday, as long as I’m in any positions long or short.  Gold is in a Cycle degree bear market and so are stocks so I call this a pretty good correlation.

If this DOW rally is already a bearish rally then complete retracement of this move will happen with no exceptions.

Another big rule I use is that, “Fundamentals will never tell you the right things at the extremes”  and in old futures traders lingo they call it  them “Funny-Mentals”. Markets will always do the opposite of funamentals and if you think that is not true then do your homework . Did the fundamentals in early 2009 tell you that the biggest stock bull market was comming?  Did you miss that bull market because you listened to the fundamantal bullshit or did you see it as one of the greatest buying opportunity of your life?

Sooner or later this market will start to roll over and then the rest will become history. If investors forget the past then they are doomed to repeat all the same mistakes of he past. This is no longer a market to invest in but it will be the traders paradise.  The ones that feel comfortable in trading up (long) or down (short) will be the winners.


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Gold Weekly Chart: On The Verge!

I have talked to gold bulls about a $500 gold crash but they will not listen or know about the Death Cross they are sitting. Folks, this is a prime example what relience on a single  price level will do. The gold bulls are basing their investment decisions thinking a little $1050 price level is going to hold them up!   If I know about the 50- 200-day Death Cross I would never knowly exposed my friends or family to such an investment.  I say pattern rules over price, because stuck at the end of the pattern is the real price!

I would be pretty stupid if after 20 years I don’t know what a bear market rally is and its aftermath Yes I could be wrong and I hate saying that but all my gold related wave counts are being tested already

Just look up at the top and then down, each counter rally was a mini bear rally and the only difference is the degree.  From the 4th wave down, this is a zigzag with a “B” wave triangle crown. Every waver should know what it means and should not call this a bull market.

I have very confident price and pattern for the long cycles in gold  out to 2101, A potential Submillenial degree wave three top in 2101. There is a 30 and 60 year cycle that is so regular it makes you speachless when you start  thinking about it.  All major tops that will end far into the future must be wave 3 as not 5th wave must ever be left uncapped. I will talk alontmore  this but I still need to do a bit of number crunching which I can narrow down to a 1 year plus or minus 1 year number.

$850 and $1375 are critical in gold as they are the basis of Fibonacci jumps. $1920 and $1050 mean nothing when forecasting gold into the future and kid can forecast the price of gold well into the future with just the knowledge of the 30 year cycle and one silly little number. (1.618)

Gold is now a dollar away from breaking first support and I have given the gold bulls a 3-1 advantage to confirm their bull market theory. they only have until the next $1200 breach and they have lost 50% of their pattern that has no wave count. Like you can do that man, every peak needs a home and it must fit relative the bigger sequence.

Turning a bear market rally into a bull market is not the smartest use of the EWP as it is highly in-efficient! It’s also a good sign how the wavers are feeding us a line of bull shit.

Technically the 5 wave decline is a diagonal decline not a 5 wave impulse decline, and found in all zigzags sooner or later. Commodities are in a zigzag world where regular wave counting will not work.

Folks I don’t need to create another wave count until we hit the bottom. I’m setting a trap for all those phony wanna be wave counters out there today that have no risk capital in what they believe in. Every single wave count you see anywhere on the net have major flaws in them that takes me just a few minutes to find and to identify.

I plan to keep most wave counts off the charts, so when you see another chart anywhere on the net that has it counted down in great detail they are the phony ones.

They have nothing better to do as all they are doing is playing with a paint by number sets. If you think I’m going fill all the little waves when the biggest reversal in history could be coming? Not on your life folks! If you think I’m a bit harsh don’t, because I’m sugar coating it when I say it!

My wave counts are constantly being tested now and some have even volunteered to test it as well. Testing it three times, all the way down and all the way up and then back down again with just 100 shares. I am short already a 1000 shares and more may happen tomorrow morning.  I will not add a single short after that as I got to hang on and ride a roller coaster down on the back of a golden bear!

I will try and write down as much as I can before we hit bottom as when the bottom is near we have to concentrate on it.  This market with extreme swings is my type of market as I love them and have been lucky enough to trade them with a $6000 US allotment I may double that if I can. I can carry pretty large positions and I will let readers know about the first 100 shares I buy at the bottom.  This is very important as it is critical to know the fast sequence of events that happen at the bottom.

As soon as we drop just a dime under $800 then “immediately”  close off all shorts, and start your controlled entry sequence. you can do both at the same time if your cutting it close.

I know most will be freaking out if they bought into a falling gold price but I have done this a few times before. It is my preferred way of getting into fast moving markets. I see red and lots of it, but once it has turned the corner everything lights up green and you have found Shamrock Green!  On the way down I plan on finding Shamrock Green under the $800 gold price. I will still try and give  a potential sequence of events that can happen and then to analyze all the red you “WILL” be seeing. this red is not your blood folks it’s your Draw Down red you are seeing. You only occur losses when you take them, You also can capture no Shamrock Green until you click sell. Traders must understand this, that we don’t make a dime until the deal is done and closed. Every opening must have a closing and when you do you will be all in cash. Once the top is all sold out then our short controlled entry sequence kicks in and we get to ride the Golden bear down for another personal best score. Riding horses is no fun if you can ride a bear or a bull!  Once we hang around the bottom for awhile something amazing will happen which I will cover in another separate post. It’s all about 2 colors of Red and Green!  When doing this remember the contrarians are racing you to the bottom as they will be buying just like you. $800 is the real base folks and I have said that for may years like others.

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Dow Index Daily Chart: Hunt For The Death Cross Continues!

If you want to see trillions go up in smoke then just what what happens after the DOW slice through the 200-day MA.  This 50-day, 200-day MA fits into my wave counting style extremely well as the Death Cross (DC) is a powerfull signal that shit is going to hit the fan. All those camplacant stock bulls  have an ugly trip ahead of them because the bears are coming to shred every bull they can catch.  A big bear in a pit of bulls, who do think will win? All the bear has to do is growl like crazy and you will see the stock bulls flee like a bunch of scared rabbits.  All it takes is one bull group to bolt for the exits and you have an instant mini crash.

If there is one warning I can give in all the time I’ve been wave counting,  you don’t want to be bullish in front of a potential Death Cross to come.  We need a very small down plunge and the Death Cross is history.  All that funny money they base their world on will come crashing down. Are you having fun yet, because for the short seller he will have a field day as he rides down the next leg of a bear market.

There is no support for anything in a Cycle degree crash, so let it fall. A world built on phony money and extreme debt does not get cleaned up with a simple correction it could take three years before the final bottom.  Besides, maybe in the fall President Trump will order the trade wars over and and scream. “No More Taxes”  The stock markets would turn and soar for huge gains.

In this crazy world anything is possible, but nothing will stop a decline once it starts rolling down hill.  Gold has already had it’s daily chart Death Cross so everything is going to take a big hit in asset prices.  I have only been using the 50-day 200-day MA a few months but it all depends how you use it that is more important.  Needless to say it fits very well with Cycle degree wave counting, and I incorporated it into the Cycle degree wave counting method.  The next many weeks is going to be critical as we should witness the DOW slow down and refuse to go higher.



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GSCI Daily Chart! The Final Countdown!

                            Europe – The Final Countdown (Official Video)

Music always goes good with looking at wave positions. In this case when I’m counting down the slope, The Final Countdown always seems to come up. Very few are bearish on commodities like I am. I’m a bear inside a bull herd and I love it. That’s what Elliott Wave is all about! I have said it all along that this gold/oil bull market is a bear market rally and in order for this to get confirmed by the markets, the GSCI must completely retrace it’s entire bullish phase, back down and below the price point of origin.

The short version is that the commodities meltdown is in progress and we are heading down to a Death Crossing (DC). “ALL” those that have bullish positions will get forced out if they like it or not, or they will suffer the meltdown trying to stand on an impending DC!  Once the smaller majority see the same thing happening then mini panics kick in and a bearish move starts to snowball.  We have a good support price range at the “B” wave, and the decline can give us a hard time at that point.

I will be switching more to the gold markets during this meltdown, as my wave positions are working wave positions in the gold sectors. For people that think that long range planning is nonsense, then they can keep using the EWP for short term mindless trade setups. The EWP is much, much more than just the quest for simple stupid trade setups.  All this may take until the end of the year to clear up some more, as we have to get past the DC first. I have small short positions out on gold and gold stocks so I have real money on my wave counts.

When this all hits bottom and you want to bet on the reversal, then you must be fully prepared now ! If by the time gold hits $800 or GDX sees $8-$12 and traders are not ready, you will miss any bullish reversal that will come.

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S&P Midcap E-Mini Record Highs

We have multiple tops in a few of the index charts, which will take time for me to sort out. I’m trying an expanded pattern which would crash right to my Primary degree “B” wave that I need. I still feel that we will get flats for most of the stock markets correction, but that can always lead in with an Intermediate degree expanded zigzag. A long tail will look like 1929 once it has completed. Better put on some Gerry Rafferty music and let that saxophone wail!  It could be a long hot summer bear market that few expect.  I will also have to check for a missed expanded top which could contain a triangle in the “B”. You can see how crazy a wave count can be when we have an expanded pattern, inside a diagonal bull market.  Most of the time we will get a long tail from the “C5” wave looking like a “crash”.

You can see that the 50-day MA and the 200-day MA are very close and it will take nothing for the 200-day to get cut, and bingo we are in Death Cross territory. I would never want to get caught sitting with a bullish position on top of a Death Cross including all the commodities I cover. It’s like you and friends are all on the deck knocking back some cool Red Stripe and some little market gremlin is cutting the 6×6 posts that supports the entire structure. This is the third big stock market crash I have counted out, and it will be worse than the others as we are starting a Cycle degree bear market.  We will get a big bear market rally which will get completely retraced, so don’t get caught in some fake bull market.

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Brent, WTI Oil Super Spike?

Oil Super Spike

Some oil bull is expecting a jump to $150, but this is not what I see that’s going to happen. It’s more like oil is going to crash before it soars again. There is a simple calculation that any kid can make, and that is apply the Gold/Oil ratio. The reason people don’t use the simple ratio is because they love to make shit more complex, not easier. I have been using the Gold/Oil ratio for close to 20 years, and I gave it to the youngest green horn that I have contact with. I explained this to a Millennial and my son inlaw this week already. Another reason they don’t use the ratio as an indicator, is because it takes work to maintain a simple calculation, and in general they don’t want to do the work.  This is also “very” true in all wave counts that you see on the internet today.

The WTI ratio can be used for this, but expect slight fluctuations.  We are sitting at a 17:1 ratio which is getting to the extremes in a bear market rally. The 2014 peak, also a bear market rally, this ratio crashed to 17:1 just before crude oil imploded. Traders in 2014 were all bullish sitting just above a DC cross and they sure are doing the exact same thing this summer.

I decided to quickly check the Gold/Brent ratio and it’s worse than the WTI. The Gold /Brent ratio hit 16.14 today so Brent crude is also confirm that we are at a bear market rally extreme.

Oil is in a huge diagonal structure that “all” commadaties have, and the 2018 peak was the real Cycle degree wave 3 peak. Every month and every year that goes by and it doesn’t destroy the wave 3 location, helps to confirm it could hold for a very long time. When looking at any of my wave counts, never forget where I’m counting from. Think of the ending diagonal turned on its side and slightly pointing up. The bull market From 1999 to the 2008 top was “NOT” an impulse folks.  It was a diagonal move with “7” waves in it, not 5 waves. The majority of all expert wave counters count 7 waves as 5 waves! This is lazy wave counting!

From the 2016 bottom, as soon as you see the very first “A” wave in Minor degree, I’ve already started to paint you a picture, that a bear market rally is in progress. The wild expanded correction did happen and has produced the “thrust” of a “C” wave bull market. The Brent Crude Death Cross is below us, as we had our first DC in 2014. The sequence is (DC,GC,DC,) for bear markets, and then (GC,DC,GC,) for bull markets. In general all these crossings work very well with Cycle degree wave counting.

Any support is down at the $40-$45 price range with is the same for WTI.  A little 10-20% correction is not going to do it, not by a long shot as Commercial trader positions a rising wedge and Gold oil ratio will implode the price of oil worldwide. I’m sure were going to see another world oil glut and until that arrives no bull market will form. 25:1 an 44:1 were bear market low ratios, and they all produced bull market from those ugly lows.

One quick way to ceck any outrages oil price claims is to take the $150 oilprice any muliply it with the present ratio of 17:1 and you get close to a $2500 gold price.  Any expert oil forecaster is also, unknowingly forecasting a gold price as the Gold/Oil ratio is connected with an unbreakable elastic band! It can stretch from maximum to minimum, but it will not break. Those that tell the public it can break are full of bullshit!   Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes, so all those freaking oil supply and demand numbers mean nothing, as a world oil glut is more a certainty, than a world oil shortage is.

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SP500 Intraday Chart: Keeping The Bulls Trapped!

The large chart size is to big to handle in my editor and I may have to go back to smaller sized charts. The SP500 is charging along and wants to keep going. The problem is that since the start of this rally just after April Fool’s is all choppy and distorted. What else is new?  When they are choppy like this with only a few small 5 wave runs, then It looks like the trend is going against  the bigger trend. It’s also telling me that we are in a bear market rally, in intraday style. I will repeat my meaning of a bear market rally and it applies to the intraday charts as well.

A bear market rally must retrace it’s entire move, back to and below the point of origin. In this case it would be below the April Fool’s Day of at least 2550. Talk about getting fooled by some date way back in April 2018!   😯 All this slow summer action is allowing the 50-day MA to get closer and closer in slicing the 200-day MA in half.  It’s not that far away and when this happens we end up with a Death Cross (DC).  If you don’t know how to short trade and are strictly an investor then be prepared for a summer crash into the fall. This is not some silly correction we are dealing with, but just a good old fasioned meltdow. It may be a slow meltdown, but this market could see a 70% crash, erasing trillions of dollars in just one year. This is all money destruction and money destruction is deflationary. When all stocks deflate do you think gold is going to inflate in price? In 2008 everything imploded including commodities, so I see a similar setup happening now.

Vertully every commodity I cover is sitting on a Death Cross and I’m sure all stocks also will have Death Crosses waiting for investors. Mr. Bear, the butcher of wall street bulls, is sharpening his knife as he is going to have to do alot of slicing and dicing to get the best choices for a fall barbecue.  I have tons of stuff to post but I will be reducing intraday posts as each little waves do not need to get confirm. For stocks the only thing that matters is when we get close to an “A” wave in Primary degree. “A” waves are buy signals, like oil was in the 2008 crash.

The wave counts you see on the internet, with all that intricate detail come from folks that have nothing better to do, and chances are they have no money at risk and are not active traders. It is really sad what the EWP has turned into as they keep posting garbage wave counts that break every rule in the wave principle.  If all this intricate wave counting can not produce a very good real money trade setup, or spot an impending Gold crash, then that wave count should be instantly trashed.  The action will be in gold and gold stocks, so I will spend more time on them.


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Sp500 Daily Chart: Death Watch

With so many potential death crosses out there, I’m starting to feel like the Grim Reaper. With stocks the 50-200 day SMA lines may act a little different than how they do in commodities. I’m sure the markets are waiting for some good fundamantal news, becuase if they don’t then the majority of sell stops below could get triggered. It won’t take much as the bullish herd is starting to get very skittish. Bears always attack from the top down and the big claw came down at the end of January.  A big bear market is coming which very few have any idea how deep and long the bear market will take.

The two SMA lines give us another clue that stock markets are heading down in a griding summer decline, which may end at the traditional September-October months. The last Golden Cross happened way back at the 2011 crash around the 2200 price level. That is far to late to be any use at all, as they are lagging indicators. Counting the crossings, the next crossing should be a Death Cross, which will show up first on most daily charts.

The longer this market goes sideways the sooner the top 50 day SMA line will slice through the 200 day line. You don’t want to be anywhere in long positions when faced with a potential Death Cross. Since everyone has an investor mentality those that know how to play the markets down will be winners this summer.  The Buy&Hold strategy is coming to an end, in a bear market. Stocks are going to “deflate” and even gold will deflate with a $500 crash. Very few asset classes will stand up to such a big onslaught of selling, but in reality the buyers might want to stay away from investing altogether.

I have to keep my options open but a big flat in Cycle degree is still the pattern that I’m after. This could take three years as solar cycle #24 draws to an end and solar cycle #25 begins. I believe a very serious recession is coming which will bring out all the depression fears. Every single degree that we go higher means that bigger crashes will come.

Gold is going to make some wild moves until 2021, as the markets and gold are heading down to the same “A” wave bottom in Primary degree. Wealth destruction is money distruction, which is inflation in reverse. $100 trillion dollars could vanish into thin air, which is very bearish for gold. That’s about a third of all world assets disapearing. The numbers may vary from others but I think readers will get the picture.

If the markets gyrate around another month or so, then I would be inclined to think we are at the top of  “B” wave crash and not a wave 2 top. A long drawn out tail of a market decline could happen. The Nasdaq elephant is probably holding everything up. If investors don’t feed the elephant with “greens” (money), it will collapse for the lack of sugar and crush all the stock bull cowboys in the fall.

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Dow Index Daily Chart: Hunt For The Death Cross!

  I have increased my chart sizes so they print out in more detail on 8×10 or larger formats. Hopefully, readers will like the higher quality charts for the extra detail.

This is a daily chart and does not move during the night so I can make these charts at any time. The 50-200 day SMA is great, but it all depends on what we want to use it for. I use it to figure out in advance when a Death Cross (DC) or a Golden Cross (GC) is going to happen next. From what I have seen a Death Cross means excatly what it says as the Death Cross can forecast huge swings and bear markets.  Most of this stuff is not rocket science, but many have never heard about crossings as they know no Technical Analysis of any type.

Back around 2011 the last Golden Cross had formed but always lagging to any wave count. Because they are lagging signals, we know a future crossing will happen and they will show up first on the daily charts.  When they are this close together it could just take 10 weeks or so when the 50 day crosses from the top down, and slices through the 200 day line. It’s always the 50 day line that does the slicing as the 200 day SMA line is the slow turtle, so to speak.

Next thing you know the stock market plunges to 20,000 where the 200-day line meets on the weekly charts. No analysts on Wall Street are screaming about an impending Death Cross. At best a few may call the Death Cross after it happens. They’re all asleep at the switch. There is a lot of backchecking I would want to do before using them in the stock markets. Due to the wild swings in commadaties, they work well with my Cycle degree wave counts.

Right now, the markets are always waiting for someone or some report to come out before it decides if the DJIA wants to implode. I believe a serious recession is in the wind, bordering on a depression and this so-called “correction” is just the start of a much bigger crash than anyone suspects. We are dealing with a Cycle degree bear market where a huge counter rally (bear market rally) will try and fool all of us again.  The markets will have little problem in sucking back investors, when they think the worst is over.  Any “B” wave in Primary degree will get completely retraced. I treat the total retracement of a bear market rally, as something chiseled in stone, as it’s not something I invented. The EWP book is full of the words, “always and never”, so I use always or equivalent expressions.

Any low targets are usually close to the September October time periods and we might get to the Primary degree “A” wave by that time. This could also sync up with the potential of gold’s “A” wave bottom of Primary degree as well. That would be a good trick even if it’s close. In good times the majority is never prepared for bad times, and this time it shouldn’t be any different! The stock market party has ended folks, and Elvis has left the building. No amount of cheering will bring him back.  🙄

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DJIA Intraday Gyrations Update!

The DJIA keeps heading south, which the Global DOW is also confirming.  It’s sad to say, but stock investors have no clue in what is going to hit them, as trade wars may be the least of their worries. The majority of it is all about the currencies inverse to the US dollar that are imploding!  This means deflation is in our future not inflation.  Stocks and gold “deflated” in the 2008 crash, so to think that it can’t happen again is very short term thinking.  We are going into a huge bear market that still may last three years before a brand new bullish phase can even start.  March is always a good time for major tops and October and November are always good months for bottoms.

It will be futile to think some new bullish super phase is coming. That dream is fading fast and you will see analysts scrambling to come up with all the bearish reasons why the markets are heading down. In bear markets a 70-80% decline is not unusual from an EWP perspective. The majority will think this is a crazy notion, but its very normal from a Cycle degree perspective.

I expect this bearish trend to continue, with a few surprises thrown in to keep us from falling asleep at the switch. Any market action is “always right”. It is our subjective opinions at the extremes that’s always wrong. Cash is “King” when world investments meltdown. $100 trillion could disappear in electronic smoke, which means “money” destruction will happen. $100 trillion is about 1/3 of total world US dollar asset values.

I wish for a Great July 4th in the USA, as I will take a bit of downtime this week as well.

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EWW A Quick Look At The Mexico Index ETF

It’s only fair that we also look at the Mexico ETF, EWW  once in awhile as the EWW could be useful as a leading indicator to some of the US indices.  This is just a quick look and I stress there is alot of baby sitting to do, to fine-tune any wave count in EWW.  It’s called “work” , so not to many analysts will tackle this type of project.  Mexico is also commodaties based, so the 5 waves down match gold very well at this time.  Since the 2013 each counter rally was a bear market rally as the markets confirmed it bu completely retracing its bullish move.

If the 2017 low is also the start of a bearish rally, then EWW will have no choice but to crash to a new bear market record low following gold. Bear market rallies retrace their entire moves, which the market has to confirm. I can’t confirm it, but the markets wave action can. Market wave action is “always right”. It’s  our personal subjective opinions at the extremes, that are “always wrong”.

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Euro Monthly, Daily Chart Death Cross Update



Gold had its Death Cross, so why can’t the Euro have one as well?  Using all the same parameters as with the gold chart, the Death Cross in the Euro also showed up. I normally don’t care about the moving averages, but the Death Cross helps to see that a bigger bearish trend of the Euro is going to happen. The Euro Death Cross supports my very bearish outlook of the Euro.

Most people don’t have a clue what a Death Cross is never mind figuring out what is going to happen next. The Death Cross in the Euro shows that the US dollar has become the safe-haven currency as Italy brings the Euro down.  Italy could make Greece look like a little garden party drinking tea and eating biscuits.

This is a quick monthly chart update that shows the Cycle degree wave 4 top in 2008. 2008 matches the crude oil peak as well as the US dollar bottom.  Potential gold investors will get hit hard as they need for the Euro and our Lonie to go up, not down the way it’s been going. All trends must end and in the case of the Euro, the bullish trend came to an end 4 times in a row.  The first three bear market rallies were all completley retraced, and now we are working on the 4th, then later we will get our 5th bear market rally.

Chances are very good that the Euro will hit the bottom trend line and create a new bear market record low. We are going to get some major market convulsions in the next 2-3 years, so asset and cash protection is going to be the key. The DAX will also implode along with China, Japan and every other major stock markets. 100 trillion dollars will get wiped of the face of the earth. Taking 100 trillion out of world asset prices will just about produce depression like symtoms, as it will become much worse than the Great Recession of 2008. A big recession is coming and it could be world wide.

I have mentioned this before but gold or silver will “not” protect you in deflationary times, no matter how much the experts believe it will. They’ve been feeding us this bullshit for decades, but I know protecting against inflation will only work “after” any metals crash, like 2000.

Just like the Euro has a long way to fall the USD still has a long way to go the opposite way. That spells out that deflationary pressures will mount. When stock markets imploded in 2008, the US dollar soared and gold crashed $300 in just 5-6 months.  To think that gold can’t crash $300 is very naive and short sighted thinking.

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SPY: The Bears Have Returned!

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SPY is a main popular ETF that tracks the SP500 index. We can get an alternate look at this bearish phase which has not recorded a new high since the January peak. Just by eye balling this potential wave 1-2 decline we can roughly judge that the 2016 low will never hold.  Add on an extended wave 3 and an extended wave 5 and this wave count would go below the bottom of the chart above.  (180). Now if a long skinny spike were to develop then the entire structure could turn into an Intermediate degree zigzag crash. In 2016 Brexit fears dominated and the big crash was forecast on all the blogs,  yet SPY turned and roared with a gain of 159% in just two years. Of course nobody can capture that move, as the planet is killing each other just for a 2-3 % return. This market should lose  2/3rds of its price in the next 3 years. This may sound depressing to most, but investors should chear when the end does arrive.

One thing I will boast about is that Elliottwave5.com is dedicated to all the Cycle degree wave structures ,which is the only blog of its kind on the Internet. With out a doubt, this blog has the most Cycle degree related wave counts anywhere.

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Russell 2000 Intraday Record High Update

Finally it looks like another major top is in and the first part of a decline is in progress. I started out using very small degree wave counts, but will adjust when the bigger trend has  impact on the daily chart.  The Gold/Russell 2000 ratio is 1.30:1 this morning which means that we can only buy 1.3 units of the Russell 200o with one ounce of gold.  As the Russell 2000 keeps crashing this ratio should expand as we are able to by more units with one ounce of gold. A Russell 2000 cheap ratio is 2.63:1, so we have a long way to go before the Russell 2000 becomes cheap again.

We are staring at world record highs, and depending on what we think what the largest wave count is, wave analysts need to cap this June peak. All my work tells me that a Cycle degree wave 3 top could have finished, then it is a simple a matter of what to expect by chossing one of three options, flat, zigzag or triangle. I favour the flat with the first move possiably being another zigzag before the “A” wave in Primary degree arrives. At this point it’s dangerous to try and catch a falling knife as a trade war is not going to get settled anytime soon. It could take years or a Cycle degree time period. When they find out that the trade wars are killing the economy and the whole trend will reverse, as they try to unwind all the damaged they have caused. A super bull market is coming, but not until a sufficient Cycle degree correction has  completed or is about ready to complete.

At a bare minimum the 960 price level will get hit. That would be normal for a bullish correction as well. In the end this 960 price level will not hold, as that is barely a bee sting in the big scope of things.  This is my third big bear market I will be tracking, but each one will contain a different pattern, with their own little quirks and surprises. Smart readers or participants must be prepared for that bottom when it arrives, otherwise they will miss this impending opportunity and will only get chicken feed for you efforts. Gen X is one of my main reader groups, and my friend who is also Gen X, will retire in 2029, so I have some convincing to do to get him mentally ready, for that anticipated 2021 market low.

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DIA, Bull Or Bear? A Cycle Degree Perspective.

One thing I can say about this DIA ETF is that it’s far smoother than anything you will run into with the futures charts. DIA also matched the “A” peak with our present “C”wave peak.

About 5 months for a wave 2 bear market rally in Minor degree still sounds pretty good. In the end this DIA ETF will take out any price support that the public this is the end of the correction.  Sorry folks to burst your bullish bubble thinking.  The majority have no clue how big of a correction must happen if we are to confirm Cycle degree wave 3. All other indices are also jostling for the peak, which may have concluded just days ago. If you are  looking for some GSC and SC degree forecasts then I will give you one! Supercycle degree wave 3 will not arrive until about, 2029 so you have a long way to wait. Cycle degree supercedes SC degree which very few wavers understand. The big bull of wave 3 in Supercycle, GSC and Submillennium degree, are all active as well. It’s the Cycle degree world that is in the, “Here and Now” which can affect 3 generations of investors all the time.

I have a good X-Gen friend who will retire in 2029. If he buys in at the 2021 expected bottom, then he could ride the entire Cycle degree wave 5 into his retirement and live happily ever after.  Wild bear market moves like 2002, 2009 are not banished from the investment world but they will just get bigger and drag out a bit longer in time.

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Russell 2000 5th Wave Bull Market Review

It always pays to look at charts from a different perspective, especially going back to any major low. Back in 2009 the 4th wave in Primary degree died and a new 5th wave was born. The majority of wave analysts were extremely bearish at that time as they all saw wave 1 in Primary degree heading up to a wave 2 in Primary degree.  But an amazing thing happened, the markets ignored all the bear market rally cries and kept right on pushing higher. Even by 2011 bearish wave counts flooded the internet.

Smart money already knew that the bear market was over in late 2008, as commodities had already bottomed and insiders had been buying for months already. Stock market insiders don’t buy on a whim nor do they sell on whim, so when we do read about general insider buying reports, then we know that a sustained bullish phase is coming.

The majority of investors always miss these great opportunities, because they don’t expect them to happen and usally they are wiped out and have no stomach to buy low. They only love the markets when it is high and going higher.

They are also never prepared for when the bull market comes to an end. So far, the Russell 2000 has continued to push to new extremes, but it did so with a very choppy pattern.   We can abuse any trend lines, but 5th waves can be infested with diagonal wave structures, so we want to be careful as diagonals also forecast the endings of trends.

If there was an expanded pattern involved, then I think this 5th wave would be far more violent than what has happen. An ending diagonal, in a diagonal 5th wave, now there is a wild combination indeed. This last diagoanl 5th wave in Intermediate degree is impressive all the same.

This Ruessll 2000 is going to a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, but as usual it can frusturate us to no end when it keeps pushing higher. Every trend will fail, but trying to figure out when, is a crap shoot at best. Nobody is ready for a Cycle degree bear market in stocks, as the majority are always late to any party.

You will constantly hear about analysts looking for a “correction” bottom! This is a big clue they have no idea how big of a dip we’re going to get. It’s an analysts job to look at the risks as investors seem to ignore them and just keep buying into world record peaks. One of the worst bear markets in history only took three years to play out and I don’t expect the next one to take much longer.  Solar cycle #25 is going to kill any remaining stock bears,  just like solar cycle #24 killed the stock bears in 2009!

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HEP, Horizons Enhanced Income Gold Producers ETF

I keep looking at other gold stock related ETFs. This is a Canadian ETF, and pays some dividends.  The big question is, are gold stocks in a true bull market, or are they in just another bear market rally?  What looks pretty common on all of these ETFs is the sideways pattern during all of 2017.  This sideways pattern is the key as gold stock ETFs have to show us who is in control, the bulls or the gold bears.  I tell my friends that just becuase gold stocks are going up does not mean we are in a full blown gold stock bull market.

From my Elliott Wave perspective a bear market rally is always completely retraced. For over 4 years we had many little bear market rallies so there are many examples what happens after a bear rally.  Our bear market broke many impulse rules, so the entire decline is a great candidate for diagonal wave counting. The speed of the 2016 run is a clue that this could be a fake run so if that is true then one more low should be in our future.  Any bullish pattern that does not constantly produce higher lows, is not in a bull market.  Since the 2017  peak all we’ve had are lower lows which shows up in the angle of the top wedge line.

Zigzags make up diagonal wave structures so at present we could still be in a 5th wave zigzag decline.  I see these types of 5th waves all the time at much smaller degree levels, so if the bottom falls out, any “C” wave spike to the downside will send the emotional investor packing and running for the hills.  I could be wrong but this market is not acting the way a bull market correction typically should act.

Early gold stock investors may think we are in a bull market but markets are designed to fool all participants all the time.  If ever this ETF or any other Canadian and US gold stock ETF crosses to a new low by a penny or less, then this entire gold stock bull market will be confirmed as just another fake bull market.  There is nothing wrong in speculating in bear market rallies as they can produce fantastic bullish runs, but in this case it would have been smarter to unload in July 2016. I was calling for a correction at that time, but that theory would have little meaning once we plunge to a new record low.

If this turns out like I think it may, then a brand new bullish phase will start again, and this time it will go much higher than that 2017 ant hill!  The second start to a new bull market phase could send gold stocks back up and retrace 80% or more of the entire gold stock bear market. The 2016 run woke up gold stock investors, so another bullish run will wake up many more, producing a bigger bullish phase as well.

This could take all summer or even the rest of the year to play out, but September and October can be great reversal months. Those that are prepared and even have some cash to employ will end up being the winners.

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Quick Intraday DJIA Update

This is the September contract and in it we see far more violent moves than what the standard DJIA index will give us. By the looks of what I see is that the DJIA is still heading south, but it will also get closer to some key previous support price levels.  If there is more to this decline than meets the eye, then any support price has no hope of holding. The majority love to analyze everything using “Price”. Pattern pulls far more weight than any price forecast will do as the markets are controlled by the wave structure not by the price structure.

One example of this is, did the “price” of the bear market low in 2009 gave you a clear signal that a huge bull market was coming? Not a fricken chance folks. Even all the expert wave counters that always deal in the price of an asset class, didn’t see the big bull market coming.  So, are all the wave analysts going to see this next bear market coming? Sure a few will, but many still have super bullish wave counts. They will constantly flip numbers and letters around, add a bunch of question marks to the charts, and then they can always claim to be right. The Nasdaq has squeezed out another new record high while the DJIA is heading south. Talk about marching to a different drummer or what! It will clear up, but that still may take some time.

Buying on any “Dip” is going to be financial suicide if we don’t understand the size of the “Big Dip” that is coming.  Any market can correct back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, and can even go lower like the DJIA did in 2009.  The only so called safe trade would be if we catch wave “A” in Primary degree. By that time the DJIA bears will be in a trap and any rally will force them to change directions. There is nothing as powerful as when the entire herd has to change directions, as they scramble to get out of their short positions.

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DJIA Daily Chart Update: Are The Bears Back In Control?

This DJIA chart has not produced any new record highs in well over 4 months and it even has a lower wave 2 then the SP500 has. I treat this low as a running zigzag as they do happen. I stay away from calling anything “truncated” but a low wave 2 means that the market is more bearish than the majority think. The big clue that the last few months is a bearish rally, is the very fact that the rally produced an extremely choppy pattern. This tells me the rally is going against a larger trend, which would be down.

The Cycle degree wave 3 peak is still holding and hopefully it will not be knocked off, as I want my Cycle degree sequences to last for the rest of stock market history.  Eventually, we will get a major stock market bottom that will be another fantastic buying opportunity. Of course the majority will never get it, as they will be ill prepared in what to do when it does hit a major low again.  Wave 3 can produce declines that will stun the majority like dear caught in the headlights. In this case its more like the “bulls” are caught in the headlights as the bears return to shred this bull market psychology once more.

Recently one of my DJIA posts has been published in Market Forum and this is the link to it. This is all very good exposure and I thank the author for posting it.

When this market goes down, many other asset classes will also get dragged down,  just like what happen in 2008. Needless to say I’m bearish until such a time a counter rally is going to be big enough, to force players to reverse their positions.  I’m sure that in the future we will get price forecasts claiming that the DJIA  is going to 5000, 3000 or even 1000.

When all the analysts are in concensus, then this is when the markets will turn and go in the opposite direction. When the DJIA 5000 price forecasts are broadcast far and wide, then it’s a pretty safe bet to call for DJIA to hit 45,000. Mind you it may take until 2029 to play out.

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SP500 Bull Market Or Bear Rally?

Getting tired of this so called “bull market” yet?  This market has been keeping us confused as to what direction it really wants to go. Price is never going to tell us anything useful  becuase if it did, every average Joe and Jane investor would have been buying everything in sight at the 2009 bottom.

Many think this is a bull market because its still  going up in price. The sad fact remains is that there are always bear market rallies at every degree level. If the experts don’t know the diffrenece with a Minor degree counter rally, then they sure are not going to know when a  Primary degree bear market rally is in progress.

The rally for the last 2 months has been frusturating to say the least, but what stands out is that this rally is going against the bigger trend.  I just had to draw in the wedge which is another very useful indicator when used at the right time.  A potential “C” wave bullish phase could be finishing off, so investors are going to find out the hard way about the effects of a bear market rally once it resumes its bigger trend.

There is always a chance one more dash to the upside will happen, but I think this market is running on fumes. The 2550 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding, as any wave 3 declince will just rip through that support range with ease. To confirm any Minor degree run be it up or down, this wave two peak needs 5 waves down in Minute degree to help us identify the location we think we are in.

Not until we get another push to the downside, investors will remain oblivious to the depth of this impending bear market.  If we don’t suspect that a Cycle degree correction is coming then all support forecasts will be useless to say the least. We have to be open to the fact that any opening zigzag requires a 5-3-5 run so we have a long way to go. Another 4 months or so will get us to a potential bottom by September or October. Any counter rally at that time will also produce another fake bull market.  It may seem a bit long in this counter rally but I have no doubt that this could all pick up in speed in a dramatic fashion.

As each stage happens then they all help in pointing us to where we are in the bigger picture. Talking about any move early is the key because after it happens, its pretty useless information. Fears of a depression will be in the news but markets do the opposite of fundamentals like they did in March of 2009.

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NASDAQ Hits New Intraday Record High!

This morning the Nasdaq pushed to a new world record high at just over 7301. The way the Nasdaq has been soaring the bullish traders are seeing some gains. To capture those gains traders have to sell or close off their trades. Of course the markets will do it for them as they will panic once a reversal starts to take place. We need more to tell us that this party is over. That may take until the February bottom of 6300 is completely retraced, as some little correction will not do anything.

I have to keep my updates short this morning but will try to update more later today.

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BOTZ Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF

Since the media is always hyping the AI world, I decided to look up potential ETFs that can help us track the world of robots and artificial inteligence. This is just a general interest post as I will not track every little wave that may or may not happen. The only thing BOTZ is tracking so far is the general index, as it has separated away from the Nasdaq  by about 5 months already.  If the general markets switch back to a bearish mood then I see no reason why BOTZ should soar. BOTZ may also help in being a leading indicator .

The entire bullish phase could get completely retraced, and it would be financial suicide to buy into this ETF thinking your buying on a dip! We could end up with a really big, “Dip”, so waiting for that time will be critcal.

This is only a general posting and by no means a buying suggestion. Investing and speculation are two different things as investors always maintain their bullish mood.  A person that “may” short this ETF is not an investor, they are speculators. For those that don’t know what “shorting”means, is that you can make money on the trip down. A speculator is free to play both directions so fundamentals mean little to them.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update

There is a little over 1 week left in the June contracts, after which it all moves to the September contract months.  This is the first chart for September and all the others will also follow. Since the April bottom the SP500 has had a bullish trend, but the shape of this trend sure looks diagonal in nature, which usally means the trend is going “against” the larger trend.  For now I will keep working a potential wave two rally which is starting to come up to some strong resistance levels. 2815 is not too far away which can get hit in a mini flash move to the upside.

That may be wishfull thinking as this is all taking too long to play out. The big stocks inside the SP500 are keeping it all going as some of the “FANG” stocks seemed to be doing the heavy lifting.  The big short bets against Tesla have been unsuccesful at this time. In the short term the SP500 can keep on rolling along.  Overall stocks have been ignoring all the fundamantal news as they just don’t care. If some “bad” news comes out and the markets don’t like it then we know we are over on the big bearish side already.

The VIX may also still have to hit $12 so that also can keep this bullish mood alive.  It may take a drop well below the 2540 price level before the investing herd wakes up to a potential bear market.

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DJIA 1977-2018 Review

Chances are very good that you could search the entire Internet for a wave count that dosen’t have a bunch of indicators on it. Wave analysts use smoke and mirror to baffle us with bullshit.  The problem with modern high degree wave counting is that they miss too many bull markets.  The main reason that the majority of wave counting experts are in SC or GSC degree is because they do not look for wave extensions. If we go back to 1977 I show three sets of wave 2 bottoms each one, being one degree lower in sequence. This produced a massive extension until the 2000 peak.

I was still a GSC degree wave counter in 2000 which forced me to flip numbers and letters around like I flip hamburgers on a grill. Every time we lay down a number or letter we are also moving forwards or backwards in time.  Imagine how much time difference there is between an Intermediate degree wave 3 in 2000 and a GSC degree wave 3 for the same peak. With a difference of 4 degree levels we could be early by 100 years or more.

They are calling the 2009 bear market the,”Great Recession”, This is milder sounding than the “Great Depression”. Depressions happen in large degree wave 2 crashes, but most of them happened in times where there were no safety nets. Today the government can just auto deposit funds to the poor and negate or buffer any depression. When we look at the DOW at the 1932 low, you would never know that a depression existed at all. Markets crashed into the 1932 bottom after which the stock market produced a 5 year bull market.  At that time it was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of March, 13, 1930 that killed the markets. Does this sound familiar with the trade wars going on in 2018? We might get the “Great Recession 2.0” but we should not get a depression, at the next Cycle degree wave 4 bottom. By the time they do call it a “Depression” it will be over, and Cycle degree wave 5 will be underway. This is when 5 waves up in Primary degree will be very important to understand, and what that 5 wave sequence will terminate at.

We are still years away from any major corrective bottom as solar cycle #24 has to end first. Many of market crashes have happened just a year or so before the next solar cycle started, so this could take us until 2021 to realize.

Every bull market comes to an end so if they think markets can stay  in a permanent high they we are making a big mistake. Investors just love to buy high, as they sure hate stocks when they are at major lows. This will never change as human emotions take over and all logic reasoning is thrown out the window.

The Gold/Dow ratio is at 19.5:1 with 17:1 already being expensive.  In May 2018 this ratio was 18.63:1 so the DOW got a bit more expensive since then.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

While a few of the other indices have scored new record highs, the DJIA and SP500 have been lagging, It’s not that I’m looking for the SP500 to catch up, but if the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 correct the SP500 would also correct. Since April the SP500 has been in choppy rise that has little to do with an impulse, but it can still work as a “C” wave bullish  move.  Short term I’m not happy with any wave count I might come up with in the indices, so I don’t fill out all the little waves as the bigger degree level is more important.

Since February this bullish phase is starting to last longer than what I would expect out of a minor degree move, but that is what we have to deal with.  The VIX has also crushed to new lows with  some analsyts being so bullish on stocks they sound like the VIX is going to zero.  All this could still carry on until the March peak has been exceeded. When it ends all support will break down, but investors just love to buy high and then sell lower in a panic to get out. Buyers keep coming out of the woodwork, and investing into the peak of  world record high stock markets. FOMO is the big reason but being bullish when the planet is bullish will just give us the same results as the majority get.

A short term bearish move is not enough for a Cycle degree correction to be completed, and markets never stay at “Permanent highs”. Sooner or later the BS, (Bullish Sentiment) will hit the fan as bears always attack from above and it usually comes as a surprise.  Bull markets are the breeding grounds for bear markets, so I see it as just a matter of time before  any bullish phase is finishing.

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Russell 2000 Intraday Record High Review

The Russell 2000 has pushed to new record highs by a large margine which leaves little doubt that the bullish phase as extended with the Russell 2000.  The DJIA and the SP500 have a long way to go to catch the Russell 2000. I think it is the Dow and the SP500 that are lagging behind and may never catch-up. I don’t believe in this catch-up market theory as the DOW and the SP500 are more like leading contrarian indicators. Still, investors are not confinced that a big bear market is coming.

I’m sure the Russell 2000 companies all require commodities of some type which could cause unintended consequences.  The only way that investors may wake up to the big bear is if we see an unxpected decline breaking past 3 or 4 price support levels.  Once the Russell 2000 breaks below the February 2018 low, then investors and analysts may start to join the bearish retoric.

During the 2008 market crash every major asset class joined the stock decline, with gold, silver and oil joining the bear party as well.  How long this can keep going is always uncertain, but all trends must end sooner or later.

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NASDAQ Record High Review

naieve The Nasdaq is just 8 p0ints away from breaking to a new record high.  Apple’s stock pattern was also a zigzag  ending with a new record high which happens in diagoanl 5th waves.  The experts are saying that the next big bullish move is on its way, but many of the other indices I cover, do not confirm this potential bullish move.  The Russell 2000 has already scored new record highs and it also looks like it carried to new highs as an inverted zigzag.

This delays any Cycle degree top for the Nasdaq index for now.  I’m targeting 30 Cycle degree wave 3 peaks but I may have 5 or so that are “iffy” or not as secure as I would like to see it.

I don’t believe in this “next leg up theory”,  as investors love to invest into record high stock prices. They have done this at every record high as investors refuse to learn from past financial history.

A Cycle degree correction is not over in a few months, all though we’ve had 2-3 year crashes in the past. Nasdaq walks to a different drummer since the 2000 peak which would have been the wave 3 in Primary degree. The bear market that followed the 2000 peak works best as a running triangle ending in 2009.  Since 2009 we’ve had 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, including a good 5th wave extension.

One way of telling that a bearish phase is coming is once the Nasdaq retraces its February 2017 low at the 6200 price level, which should get everybody’s attention!  A big flat in Cycle degree is still the best choice at this time.

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June, 1, 2018 GSCI – Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GD) 1999-2018 Review

When we start back in 1999 I have it as a 4th wave bottom in Primary degree. For many years I worked this index with a 4th wave Cycle degree bottom in 1999. Every major expert wave analysts forced a 5 wave impulse which blew its top right along with oil in 2008.  I hate to rain on your parade but the move from 1999 to 2008 was not an impulse, it was a zigzag as part of any diagonal bull market.

The entire Submillennium degree 5 wave sequence is all diagonal related so we should always expect a zigzag to show up when we least expect them to. Forcing a 7 wave pattern  into a 5 wave count, is breaking the rules of the highest order.

My best calculation is that this Submillennium move is about 528 years old with a few hundred years to go, before wave 3 in Submillennium degree will even  get close.

Diagonals contain many zigzags, and at this time I see that most of my commodity Cycle degree 4th wave bear markets, will be zigzags. Some are triangles, and a few are iffy but I’m targeting about 3o Cycle degree bear markets in total at this time.

The crash from 2008 down to late 2008 was about as straight as we can get. Fast starting moves like this is usually a sign of a zigzag as 5 waves are dramatically compressed. In a flat the first “A” wave would be very choppy with the ‘C5’  tail being very straight.

Yes we had a real wild top during the 2011-2013 time period but that can also into a diagonal as well.  You would think that the 2016 bottom shoud produce a flying impuse but that 2016 bottom is a bit short for the completion of a 4th wave in Cycle degree. We had the same wild correction as other commodaties that I was working, which was an inverted zigzag.  Inverted zigzags are bear market rallies, and bear market rallies always retrace their entire bullish moves. Another big example of bear market rallies completely retracing their entire bullish move is this chart, as the 2008 bottom has been retraced once already. There is no reason why this index should keep on soaring when the entire world is conducting a trade war.

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RSX Russia ETF Bear Market Review

The RSX tracks many oil related asset classes which all had a major top in mid 2008. This makes it easy to call a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, but what followed is another bear market, that looks like a zigzag, but has not finished.  We need at least two major lows with the 2016 low still not being low enough for a zigzag to be called finished.  Of course we’ve been told the exact opposite as oil is heading to $300 as one biased expert claims.

I want to stress the point that this is just a quick count. It takes years of baby sitting to build a reliable wave count that you can trade without using stops.  There are no reliable trend lines that I can use but the big bearish trend seems to be obvious at this time.  It may take the rest of this year before this RSX bear market rally clears up, as increased OPEC output has caused this market to turn bearish.

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