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Category Archives: SLV

SLV: Last Chance!

 

I cannot stress it often enough, how important it is to “not” watch the gold price if you want to figure out where the gold price is going next!  Silver and the gold stock ETFs is where the action is as they are the leaders. Silver only has less than 20 cents to make a complete reversal and soar, or it will be one of the first ETFs to cross to a new bear market record low. 2-3 other ETFs are catching up fast  and we could end up with a small group creating new record lows. There is no way that silver can be in a bull market, and I think it is impossible for gold to remain high while silver crashes.

Once SLV just closes below $13 then that would confirm that silver was in a bear market rally. All the investors are getting fooled by an Intermediate degree bullish phase, so It will be pretty easy to fool the majority again, once SLV ends on a Primary degree “B” wave rally!

There is no bottom in sight just yet, as I look for bear traps to develop all the time. I have to see when the majority get into a bear trap, at the exact same time, that I catch my own bear trap! I can get out of any situation after about 15 minutes of work at night, and by the time I wake up all my orders have been executed.

Silver is far from a major bottom but look to the 2008 crash bottom as major support $8-$10.  Silver has the same sideways pattern like gold, but this triangle is leaning over, which I call a running triangle. I never call them “truncations” as that would suggest an abnormal pattern. There is nothing abnormal about a running triangle.

When the headlines scream about silver not holding the $13 support price, chances are good that a trap is forming.

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SLV: Bear Market Update

 

I made this chart last night but it’s still relevant as SLV added more downside with the start of early trading. Any price below $13 for SLV, then the markets will have confirmed that silver was in a bear market rally. SLV was only about $.50 away from breaking to new bear market lows.  It’s impossible for silver to go back into a bear market while gold is still far from doing the same thing.

Being brainwashed by the gold sector happens all the time as it also happens at peaks as well.  SLV and gold stock ETFs are far better early warning ETFs to watch as they act like leading indicators.

The majority will never learn what a bear market rally is, but for those that don’t understand a bear market rally, a bear market rally completley retraces itself back to and below the point of origin. In this case the late 2015 low. I add a little to this downside requirement as charts do show different results most of the time. GOEX is also another ETF that should cross to new lows, so more will be added to the list as September can be very bearish.

My main focus is with GDX and GDXJ as they are also my main trading ETFs at this time.  I have many more ETFs that I track which are also in my “Ratio Pool” and in bear market rallies this “Ratio Pool” hits a price brick wall. I have mentioned this many times when it was happening as I have about 20 ratios in this pool. Ratios can bend stretch to the extremes, but it’s mathamatical connection will never break! Math doesn’t lie, only people do!

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SLV Wave Positions: “Garbage In, Garbage Out”

 

“Garbage In, Garbage Out”, is how it works with the EWP. Flipping numbers and letters around like they are hamburgers on a grill, just scrambles more of the garbage coming in, which in turn destroys every wave position we may think we have looking into the future. The majority of wave analysts and gurus focus on the gold price, and what the hedge funds are doing in gold. In most part they ignore silver and even ignore most of the gold stock ETFs as well. SLV follows the silver cash futures very well, so I know there are no options involved inside the SLV,  ETF.

The price support of $13 is the magic number that will confirm that silver was in just another bear market rally! Up top in 2012. we also had a bear market rally, as that entire bullish run was completely retraced. How can gold be in a bull market after SLV drops another $1 and falls below $13?  Market Vane in 2011 registered 96% silver bulls, one of the most extreme readings you will ever get and SLV imploded shortly after!

In 2011 SLV peaked before GLD by many months, so I think this theme will always be present, making Silver a very good leading indicator.  Gold investors think that the 2011 peak was just a peak in an on going bull market correction, but this is a “false assumption”.  2011 was a 30 year commodity mania peak and they do not correct in just 4-5 years. They also never end with a soft bottom like in late 2015. When I apply a 75-150-day MA, then we are sitting on a Death Cross right now! This is the worst bullish position we can find ourselves trapped in.

Those that are wishing and hoping for the return of the big silver bull, will have to wait until 2041 for a Supercycle degree wave III metals mania. At most during our life span, we can be part of two mania peaks and 2011 was my second mania peak.

The wave decline since 2011 has been a classic diagonal set of 5 waves, which I was not sure how to count when it happened. All commodities are about connecting big zigzags together which is why I include the “C” wave peak in Primary degree for 2011. Don’t get me wrong, as all of 2019 could be very bullish for the metals market which I plan to participate, to the fullest extent my real money account will allow!

Late 2011 also saw the first peak in solar cycle #24 much like what happened in 1980! In 1999 this flipped when the price of silver was propelled to the upside. This should happen again when solar cycle #24 ends.  The solar cycles are one of the most powerfull indicators for the starts and endings to bullish and bear cycles. Producing bearish wave counts when solar cycle #25 arrives will kill or trash every bearish wave count we can dream up, which should match my Cycle degree wave 4 bottom as well.

After this time period, there is a good chance that this blog will go “Dark” when “NO” more wave positions will be posted. This may even happen sooner, as in the last 2.4 years, no practicing wave analyst has expressed any real desire to work inside the Cycle degree parameters that I follow. If nobody is willing to devote their life to maintaining Cycle degree wave analysis, then all my work will end up getting buried in history, never to rise again. Modern wave analysts have destroyed the EWP, which all happened after the mania peak in 2000!  In the early days it was one on one, that kept the EWP going, as there was no internet at that time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Silver: Last Chance To Still Be In A Bull Market

 

We are getting very close to another downside move to a point where silver must turn and soar, if it still wants to destroy my bearish wave positions. Silver is $ 2.35 away from breaking all new bull market record lows. So when silver does fall below $13 then it was just in a bear market rally, and the mass of silver bugs were in a bull trap.

From the 2016 August peak and then down to that late 2016 bottom, was a Diagonal set of 5 waves, which the gold wavers called a zigzag correction. It’s just a triangle in a “B” wave, and a running “B” wave to boot.

Here is a COT report on silver  which still has the commercials in a bearish mood, while the small traders and big speculators are bullish.  Commercials are close to the core silver business and have the least amount of risk when they hedge. Speculators are the animals as they go wild chasing anything that moves in any direction. Their not in much of a bull trap right now,  but that can still change in a very short time.

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SLV: 2011 Was A 30 Year, Cycle Degree Wave 3 Silver Mania Top!

I have no doubt I can read my bubble tops in commodities  and the 2011 peak was part of a 30 year cycle from 1980. This cycle has about a plus or minus 1 year cyclical rate, which in my world is far to accurate for me to believe in instantly. I know what this 30 year frequency comes from, as yesterday I researched it some more, and as far as I’m concerned it is imperative that the Cycle degree silver and gold asset trader, must incorporate this 30 year cycle in forecasting in Cycle degree out to 2041, 2071 and 2101.

Remember, all top wavers can’t forecast Cycle degree positions, but since Cycle degree is the lowest in the mathematical sequence we must all follow it. This concept of being first is hard to grasp but it is the core of what the EWP is all about. “AFTER” Cycle degree we get to Supercycle degree, and we can’t break this sequential code ever! Not by a single degree! Just imagine if you are out by a single degree in 2011? Or the 1999 bottom. Every single wave count on this planet today must have a Cycle degree base or they have nothing at all!  You can tell the wavers that have filled out every little wave in minute degree have nothing better to do, and have no risk capital at stake.

This means mathematically, that a Cycle degree world will, if it gains traction, will cut and slice every single wave count on the planet today!  I’m on my third year of working this blog dedicated to Cycle degree analysis. It’s not about me, but it’s all about keeping Cycle degree wave analytics first!  The wave principle is a sequential code and once broken, SC and GSC degree wave counts will infiltrate and infest Cycle degree like rats in a barn. I spent years getting rid of the rat infestation, but this is my third and last time, as there is “No Retreat” from 2018 on into the future. Having the wrong degree and just flipping numbers one degree, can put you out 30 years or more!

I rent, but I have an 80 square foot office space that I call my home based world. Any small space you are cozy in will work. I have worked all the time to build the EWP the way I need to eventually have a good trading account to keep making a living for the rest of my life. Hopefully others see it as well, and when your independent, nobody tells you what to do. You are the boss, and you like working for a good guy right!

Silver and GDX are about the same price range so we can use every thing from the GDX world into this SLV world. After 20 years of reading futures charts I see no reason why SLV cannot be used when buying low. SLV tracks silver very well as GLD and IAU tracks gold. This next bottom in SLV could be below support as it is a previous 4th wave like position.

I want readers to know that I can stop all wave position postings and go dark and still trade this without ever putting a mark on a chart. If you want a detailed wave position it will cost you 10 ounces of pure silver, per hour!  If some rich hedge funds wants to see my gold research then they must deposit $233,000 USD cash in consulting fees  into my USD side trading account, before I even give them the time of day!

You can get a kick out of it, but my father in-law charged $400 per hour consulting fees back in the early 80’s.

I’m convinced that the commodities markets and the stock markets are going to sync up and should crash and rise  together with the “B” wave before they all implode near the 2021 bottom time period. I’m a trader for that very reason as investors lose more money than any trader ever will. We are not afraid to go to “cash” when we need to. In a traders world cash is king!  To be honest I would rather sit around with a bunch of serious trader types than anyone else because we would have alot more fun, once the ice is thawed.

Silver cannot fall below $13 because if it does, then all the bull market rhetoric (BS) will be proven to be one big fat lie!

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SLV 2011-2018 Bear Market Review.

Silver peaking 2011 along with most all other related ETFs. This 2011 peak barely created a new record high, so couldn’t kep up to gold even though everyone was chearing silver on to do so. Calls of $200 silver were common. Yet what did SLV do, it ignored all the bullish news an then started to decline which now has turned into a long grinding bear market. This isn’t even very long as several in the past have taken 13 years to decline.  With Death Cross counts going up I just don’t see silver going anywhere but down.

The above chart only has a 50 day line, and SLV is having a real problem getting above it. The 50 day average line is hard to push up as it only succeeded several times for a short period of time.  Impulse declines don’t behave in this angle as, 5 wave impulse declines would be much steeper. I’m pretty sure the markets will bring us a much steeper decline in the future.   Everyone may not understand a bear market, but I use a very direct description that has no room for error.

Every bear market rally must retrace the entire bullish move, starting back from its origin.($13) SLV has done this many times in its bigger bearish phase, and I think its going to do it one more time.

I also have made a very important change to the 2011 top where ther now is a Primary Degree “C” wave and then Cycle degree wave 3 as my highest degree.

By no means does it change any present day wave count, but it sure will impact wave 5 in Cycle degree. Until then we are going to get some wild reversals and if  traders are not on the ball or be prepared far in advance, they will certainly miss any bull party that will happen.

From where SLV might land at, I would expect about a 70-80% counter rally.  Of Course the majority will never get that because they will get freaked out on the dips.  In Order to get that you have to get good at catching a falling knife!  This phrase is meant to scare you away from ever trying it so very few today practice buying low.

When I read that staement, Catching a Falling Knife”, I ask, “Who in fricken hell is dropping the knife?  🙄 The person that has dropped the knife is the emotional investor freaking out  as he can no longer afford to hold his position. Or it’s the short artist that’s dropping the knife. I presently have small short positions out on gold/oil related assets, so I would also be a knife dropper.

Only fear will keep many traders away as you have to be prepared for asset values to fall like leaves of a tree in the autumn. You might think thats stupid, but thats exactly how it was during the 2008 gold stock crash.

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SLV, Silver ETF 2011-2018 Review

SLV is the ETF that tracks silver. This chart shows that SLV peaked in 2011 after which SLV turned into a bearish phase, that looks like it ended in late 2015.  Since the 2015 bottom  many assume that the metals bear market is over and many have turned bullish.  Any metals wave counts must always start with the 2011 peak which I think is the location for Cycle degree wave 3.  Any wave count must start from a specific location and in this case SLV matches all the gold and silver peaks w’vehad so far.

Is a 4+ year bearish phase long enough to call the SLV bear market completed?  Not for a Cycle degree correction it’s not, as we had several bear markets lasting 13 years.  It might work for an Intermedeate or even a Primary degree bear market, but for a Cycle degree bear market it is far from over.

The majority assume anything that goes up is in a bull market, as they know little about how big bear market rallies can acually get. Every bear market rally must get completley retraced, even if it is by a very small amount.  All commodaties have a very high degree of diagonal wave structures in them as the entire Submillennium degree 5 wave sequnce is also a diagonal.

In diagonal waves there are many connecting zigzags and from what I have seen all of my Cycle degree 4th wave bear markets are turning out to be Cycle degree zigzags.  We have a few that are triangles, which are also zigzags.

SLV has been running across the top trend line, and if this bullish sceneriois true then SLV  should blow past this top trend line. This must happen soon as it’s not normal for a summer bull market to give us another major leg up.   Any dip towards my center trend line would work and SLV may never hit the bottom trend line on this trip.  All SLV needs to do is fall a few pennies below the 2015 low and this so called bull market will turn out to be a fake.  (Bear Market Rally)

Until this plays out I will remain bearish, but I’m sure another very bullish leg will come. It to will be a fake but this time it will be a Primary degree bear market rally.  Since our present rally was an Intermedeate degree rally, then chances are good that SLV will travel about 61% higher than the mid 2016 peak.

In 2008 stocks, gold, silver and oil also crashed together which  looks like it could be happening again. I have many of these 4th wave rallies I’m presently working so it’s not just one asset class we are dealing with.

Solar Cycle #24 also made its first peak in 2011 so I know the sun cycles yield massive influence on commadity prices.  Precious metals peaked 3 years after oil, so we may see oil bottom three years before silver as well.

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