Now that we can look back to that 2016 peak it would have been a good time to close off any long positions and then revert to a bearish short position. SIL has to completley retrace itself back down and below the point of origin to confirm that this entire bull market was nothing but a bull trap as new lows are certainly going to happen in the next 3-4 months. I use a 75-150-day MA on these charts which shows that the 75-day MA is ready to create a Death Cross. I find that any Death Cross of this magnitude is one of the most important technical indicators that I have added this year.
The last Golden Crossing sure never lasted that long which does happen, but I would never knowingly invest at the top of a Death Cross. Death Cross is excatly what it sounds like as your account turns red long before they happen. I may not be able to buy in at the bottom as my main focus will be, GDX,GDXJ, GLDM. We have lots to choose from, far more than what I will need in the next few years. SIL should fall well below $13 and $8 would not be an issue. Paying too much attention to gold will always give you the wrong signals as silver and gold stock related ETFs tell us a much different story.
The angle of decline has to turn down sharper, which I’m sure SIL will do, along with all other gold stock related ETFs. Deflation is the name of the game and SIL is demonstrating this perfectly. The bullshit stories of how gold or silver can protect you in a deflation is totally wrong, only when gold or silver prices have been crushed will gold or silver protect you from any future inflation.
My “A” bottom in Primary degree will be one of the best and last buying positions for the next bullish run that is sure to follow. If you are still sitting on the fence saying, “Well you never know”, it’s just a bad excuse for not even wanting to do the minimum amount of work required to understand trends. Missing a major bearish trend or a major bullish trend is unacceptable from my perspective.
When betting short, our timing must be impeccable or sublime so “maybe” must be turned into 20/20 foresight vision. Any new record low will just be part one ending, as the 2019 counter rally should be the biggest since 2011!