This is another gold stock tracking ETF and is acting much the same as all other gold stock ETFs I track.
Gold settles at lowest level in more than 1 ½ years in broad metals-sector rout
I bet this little crash surprised the gold investors as they will get very itchy trigger fingers, if gold stock ETFs don’t start turning around soon. SGDM only has about a $5 window to show us that a bull market is still coming. It’s just not going to happen, as SGDM still has to fall well below $11 US! SGDM could also fall below $8, so I rule nothing out.
The 2011 peak was a 30 year mania peak in a wave 3 top in Cycle degree. Bubbles of this magnitude do not end well as declining gold and gold stocks is the sign of deflation.
This should all still take 3 years or so to play out and even the next bullish phase I expect will also be a bear market rally. Just in case nobody has told you the description of a bear market rally, then the basic “law” applies as all bear market rallies always retrace everything back down to and below the point of origin. Every wave two rally does the same thing, as an entire decline is made up with mini bear market rallies.
Vertical down moves like this usually dictate a potential bigger counter rally to come, but again time will settle that argument.
SGDM is a gold miner ETF that started back in 2014. There is very little history to work with but once we locate the 2016 bottom SGDM fits in with the rest of the ETFs I track. I counted how many I have, which was about 15. Between all 15 there are differences escpecially during the 2o17 sideways pattern. None of these ETFs have broken down or have completley retrace the bullish cycle that ended on the August 2016 peak. There are at least 2 ETFs where this sideways pattern has developed at much lower prices, and they would be the leaders to watch if and when they cross to all-time new bear market lows.
It would be very rare and next to impossible if 2 or three Gold stock related ETFs and indicies retraced to new record lows while the other 13 did not. If just “one” exceeds a new record low then you can bet all the rest will eventually be very close behind. The majority don’t even know the diffrenece between a bull market and a big bear market rally. They might clue in the next time gold stocks take a big hit, but until then gold stock investors remain bullish.
I have many little gold stocks I watch and the majority of them have been imploding as well. This all adds to my bearish outlook for the rest of 2018. The August 2016 peak was a net $18 USD Intermediate degree move, peaking at just under $30 with about a 250% gain. If you missed that bull market which most of us did, then stick around, becuase another big bullish move will happen. The next time it will be a Primary degree move. Since I’m working mostly Cycle degree zigzags in commodities, this Primary degree ‘B’ wave should not exceed any 2011 peaks.
As we can see this SDGM has not kept up with gold, and even silver has been a real laggard. Many are expecting a miracle when they say that gold stocks will catch-up to gold. This excuse didn’t work at the 2011 peak, and it sure isn’t going to work now.