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Category Archives: IAU

IAU: Gold ETF Review

This IAU ETF seems to be very popular, but this morning the volume is around 500,000 shares traded. I like to look at other gold related charts as little differences can give a certain location hint.  One of the worst to recognize early is the darn expanded wave 3 bottom. Expanded flats are critical to understand as they are fake bull markets and if it is identified correctly, then a new record low is a given. Most gold stocks, ETFs sure don’t look like this as some of them went sideways while others were pointed down.  Analysts have faced this dilemma before as they were all wondering why gold stock ETFs were not catching up to gold.

This is not a gold stock, ETF, as it seems to follow the futures metal very well. I have many of these 3-4-5 wave counts in progress and they must constantly be checked if bull markets don’t behave like they should. This gold rally keeps us blinded by the bullish hype from the mainstream news. When the news drums beat in one direction, I look at the opposite direction long before the herd catches on. This IAU has not broken out of resistance yet, but this morning IAU made a small bullish move.  The herd will not see any potential bearish moves until some key support price levels get retraced.

If you think gold can’t hit another ugly low, then my wave counts will not matter to you at all, but if you’re not sure then welcome to the club!

Sooner or later, this gold ETF will send us a clear picture because it can’t fake a bull market forever. At this time, IAU has not exceeded that mid 2017 peak, which still keeps the zigzag within the “B” wave rules. Since I don’t have US funds to work with, anything I might buy at a major low will be in Canadian funds.

I remain very bearish as many of these commodities could slump together, surprising even the staunches gold bulls.

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