HEP is a Canadian ETF that says it is an income fund. I would have to do a lot more work to confirm that, as it doesn’t even have an options chain I can look at. It’s just one of those ETF’s that is only about $4 away from crashing through support. GOEX is another one. Not until all gold stock related ETFs have crashed to new lows that the majority might throw in the white towel!
Nobody has capitulated yet, which I think still needs to happen. It may take until early 2019 to bottom but then gold stocks could rally well into 2020. This run can move HEP up to the $65 range.
The Gold/Hep ratio sits at 63:1 and that should spread even further as this bearish phase continues. When this hits a real bottom, I may buy some token positions only, as I will work GDX and GDXJ the hardest.
The decline since the 2011 peak has been 5 diagonal waves, which I will not count over and over for readers entertainment. All my work only requires 3 lower degree levels, and Minor degree is my lowest. Minute degree wave counts are only good for day traders or for those that have no clue what the bigger trend actually is.
2011 was a gold/silver 30 year mania peak and it’s correction is far from over. By the end of this year we may be 1/3 of the way through it. Fast violent reversals will happen and if the planning is not fully underway now, you will not be prepared when the first “A” wave in Primary degree arrives.
HEP is another ETF that tracks gold stocks and one of the reasons I track it, is that HEP is one of 3 ETFs that are closest to breaking to new record lows. Silver is another one, as it had about a $1.00 to go before it would rack up another new bear market lows. I keep a ratio count on HEP as well, but need to establish a longer record. What I show is that an expensive Gold/Hep ratio hit about 20:1 with a 2015 low of about 61:1.
Today we have a 58:1 Gold/Hep ratio, which would be extreme when compared to the 61:1 low. There is nothing to stop it from hitting 100:1, so old ratio lows can be broken. Many ratios I keep have improved, in that they are getting cheaper when we use gold as purchasing power. HEP is in my “Wave Pool” just as it is in my “Ratio Pool”, which are both in-house indicators that I use.
Markets are always bluffing us with a pair of two’s, so my main 8 indicators work like “4 Aces” in my hand, and another 4 up my sleeve, just to keep all bases covered. 🙄 If only one Ace lights up in my hand then this is not enough to take on any opposite bet. Trading is an infinite game, where there are only dropouts. The only thing we have to beat is our own personal-best trade that we ever had.
Trying to beat the markets is a joke, as they will beat you up first, and then steal your money at the same time.
This is an income fund in Canada started back in 2010. 2011 was my Cycle degree wave 3 peak and what followed was a grinding bear market that looks like an impulse but in reality it is just another diagonal 5 wave sequence. All this may be hard to swallow for those staunch gold stock bulls foaming at the mouth, but I’m not here to make those emotional traders happy, as I will always try to supply an alternate idea about bear market rallies.
I call them fake runs at times, and the biggest and most important thing to know, is that all bear market rallies retrace themselves by 100%. In mid 2016 I called for a correction in what I though was a bigger bull market still to come. What followed was another grinding sideways movement that seems to be going nowhere. All bullish corrections during that time had failed. When we apply a wedge to this section, HEP is getting bunched up inside the cone, and it must be forced to break-out. Break-out in what direction? Slice the top line first or slice the bottom line first?
Our choice comes down to two basic chart directions, up or down! This pays a small dividend but I still would not touch this ETF with a 10-foot pole. I do not give any specific buy or sell calls, as I can only forecast up or down my idealized wave structures. I may still be a bear now but I will turn very bullish when the time comes. There is always a chance that I can be wrong, but then the bull market will have to leave without me, as I refuse to jump into a trade in the fear of missing out. In 2008 most markets crashed together as gold/silver/gold stocks/oil and all the big markets headed south. If it happened once before, it sure can happen again. It would cost you about $2300 to find out!