GLD Review

This morning I still have a problem connecting with my futures site. The problem still exists and fixing it may take sometime. I will use more charts from Bigcharts.com as a temporary fix. I also have a serious issue inside my editor which slows down any posting I do. We also have severe wind conditions here today, where the lights start to flicker once in a while. When it rains it pours, as it seems issues come all at once.

Since the 2016 bottom, GLD was in an upward bullish trend  before it turned and then plunged. Since about August 2018, GLD has been in slow and boring bullish phase. This 5 month run sure looks like a set of 5 waves, but we will not find out until an impending correction starts to really show. I can fit the entire move into a triangle which do not develop in any wave 1-2,  but sure can happen in 4th waves. Diagonal waves act like triangles, so they can be confused with a wave 1.  Any wave 2 correction can go very deep and the net move can retrace 60% or more.

Gold or GLD is the only asset class with this upward sloping trend as all other asset classes like gold stocks are not even close to following GLD. Silver is also a prime example of this.

The USD is far from a potential decline even though the commercial hedgers are net long. That might change by Fridays COT report.

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GLD: Bear Market Progress Update.

 

Always remember that the Death Cross is alive and real in gold, which GLD represents very well. GLD follows the futures chart very well except GLD has its patterns a bit smoother. I always had gold as a bear market rally, but was not sure of the location or excatly the pattern that we were going to get. One support leg has already been “taken out” while 3 more bull market support price levels will get taken out as well.

The entire bullish gold investors universe rests on one price to hold at $100 while $80 in GLD was always major support from my perspective. This 5th wave has one little special wave in it and that is it has a triangle in the “B” wave position. This little triangle is a clear signal that my wave count has to end on a higher degree, once the 5th wave bottom has clearly formed.  I will not take a position in GLD when the bottom arrives as I will see what IAU does. Most of my attention will be on GDX and gold stock ETFs.

My Cycle degree wave positions will eventually give me enough to create a very good home based income all based on cash flow. Cash is king in my world, so I use my cash base as an escape route if necessary. The only thing I need is to protect my cash, so I can keep betting the way I’m used to doing.

“All” the gold investors think we just finish a gold bull market correction, when in fact the 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak, that will not happen again until 2041! (2011+30) 2041 will be the home of the next SC degree wave 3 peak, but I will never see it happen. It’s the younger generation of wave analysts that might catch it.

The US dollar is in a huge bull market that the gold experts do not understand, if they are expecting the US dollar to crash. Good luck with that as I tried for years to do the same thing and it never worked. At every 30 year gold peak it’s time to sell all excess bullion, as it sure is not the time to “invest” in gold assets.

Any Cycle degree wave 4 has to look much like the crude oil crash has already done, while gold topped 3 years after oil. Oil is giving us a preview in what gold should eventually look like as well.  That was a soft landing in late 2015, and I assure you bear markets do not land softley. They end with a crash!

I’m very bearish on gold and gold stocks and have taken bearish positions in mostly GDX and IAU. Any doubt, then my trading account records will confirm that these positions have been taken. My GDX positions are all traded with real money and “No Stops” of any type.

 

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GLD Gold ETF 2011-2018 Review

I had to try different settings before I could use this chart to count out GLD. GLD tracks the price of gold not gold stock miners.  GLD tracks gold very well, like IAU does, and the trading volume always seems to be there as well.

The 2011 $185 price peak is my Cycle degree wave 3 location. Once I looked at the gold bearish phase from a diagonal wave perspective, things started to fit much better. The big problem is always trying to figure out where we are in this diagonal 5 wave decline. The explosive move from the 2015 bottom, to the 2016 peak, also works better as an inverted  zigzag.

What followed the 2016 peak, was a grinding decline, and in 2017  another gyrating bullish move. happened.  This bullish phase or overlapping wave structures, should be a clue that our present gold rally is struggling. When it struggles like this GLD is traveling against the larger trend.  Any gold chart or ETF gold chart is showing this bullish move, and the majority all think that gold is still going much higher. After all the bullish trend is still in place right?

The one thing that the majority will never figure out, what is a bear market rally and what is a true bull market. Only a very small percentage of traders or analystst know the difference.  I’m not talking about some imaginary conventional description of a 20% decline, as a simple 20% decline has little meaning in the Elliott Wave world.

From an Elliott Wave prespective, any bear market rally is completley retraced. In this case the low was in late 2015, which would have to get completley retraced.  Even if it’s only by a very small percentage. Since the 2011 peak we’ve had about 6-7 bear market rallies and they were “all” retraced, so chances are good that our present rally is also a bear market rally.

The bigger the bear market rally the more bullish investors get drawn into a bull trap, so identifying bear market rallies before the crowd does, is extremely important.

With about 15 of these ETF patterns in play and only “one”  ETF gets completley retraced, then all the others will eventually follow. This may take all summer and well into the fall, but a new record bottom will also produce a very good buying opertunity for the next bullish phase that is sure to come. This will be a Primary degree “B” wave bullish phase,  which will also be a bear market rally, but it will be a much bigger bear market rally by “one” higher degree.  The short description would be that gold can travel 1.618 times higher than the 2016 peak but not exceed any new record highs.  At about $175 we have a tripple top which would also produce an extreme resistance price level.

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