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Category Archives: GOLD&SILVER STOCK ETFS

Gold Stocks GDX Update!

 

Gold Going To $3000!

GDX has been on a rally which many think was a major bottom as the above analyst thinks gold is going to $3000 soon. What these crazy forecasts are telling us is that the US dollar has to implode in a major way, before gold ever breaks out again. The 2011 peak was already a gold/silver mania peak which I documented very well. At that 2011 peak, the majority of analysts were all extremely bullish yet gold stocks imploded ignoring all the fundamentals.  Most people couldn’t tell you what caused the decline after 2011, and I bet they still can’t tell you what lifted GDX in early 2016!

Sure GDX formed a bottom and it even has a decent “C” wave decline, but that doesn’t mean that GDX is in a real bull market! In a 4-year + decline,  gold stocks had many rallies and they all resumed their larger bearish trends. It may take the rest of this month, but any new bottom will help make my bearish case. The US dollar is in a bull market that very few understand, as the US dollar bull market represents “deflation” not inflation. Any emotional gold buying moves will never last as they are not based on sentiment, but based on fear!  Gold investors will run like chickens if this bottom does not hold.

The Gold/Gdx ratio is not all that bad at 66.54:1, but this ratio should expand much more before gold stocks become very cheap again.

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XGD S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index Review.

 

This is just an index related to the gold mining industries. What was always odd was that this index never really created the “C” wave as deep as I would expect. Even a running pattern would have a longer “C” than what XGD shows. All the other ETFs sure don’t look like this, as they were all much, much lower.  Back down in late 2013, news that insiders were buying was everywhere, that I was convinced that 2013 was a major bottom. What followed was a rally and then another 3 wave decline to a new record low, which I have as a “B” wave in Minor degree.

After the “B” wave bottom XGD soared and pushed up right into my wave 2 in Intermediate degree. This insane rally was a 4th wave rally, that pointed or confirmed my wave 2 top in 2012. Of course, that would break every impulse rule in the book, but it sure doesn’t break any diagonal rules that I know of.

One expanded pattern at the bottom gives us the big clue that this entire bullish phase is nothing but a big bear market rally!  “ALL” bear market rallies completely retrace themselves back down to and below their point of origin. When it crosses to new lows, even just by pennies, then the bear market rally will get confirmed.

When we get close we, then we can see a huge H&S pattern being formed, and that would be extremely bullish from my perspective.

I have to do more back-checking to establish a few more Gold/XGD ratio extremes. Today the Gold/XGD ratio is sitting at 3.97:1, which means I need 3.97 gold ounces to buy one unit of the XGD index.

Don’t think that this is some freakish anomaly, because they do happen, especially in commodities.

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Quick GDX Update!

 

GDX hit a bottom at $17.28 and is now looking like it is correcting. If this big bullish phase is on, then GDX must head higher, leaving all previous resistance levels in the dust, or should I say, “gold dust”.

There may be a bottom in GDX today, but the rest of the day could still change things.  Above all, we must see bullish sequences with good corrections, as that is the sign of a bullish phase in effect.

The Gold/GDX Ratio is sitting at 64.25:1. This is cheap, but still far away from being extreme of 84:1.

As this GDX bullish phase advances, then this ratio will start to compress. Not until we get to a ridiculous expensive ratio, would GDX be overbought.

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GDX: A Bullish Phase In Progress?

 

 

GDX hasn’t moved that much, but last week many the COT reports I follow had some major shifts which is always a wake-up call that something has changed, That change should be to the bullish side. Even my PUT options watch list saw a major price drop, which would mean there is no longer time for the PUTs to recover and that they will all expire worthless. The addition of a CALL watch list, keeps you feedback in a real time basis, so I see a huge benefit of watching an “Options Pool”. With Options you can always calculate how much will cash will disappear, once the risk to zero is calculated the instant you buy any option.  Last week I reversed my entire account before I got up in the morning as I start late at night putting my orders in. I don’t run to my desk when I get up but coffee comes first!  Adding options to the mix is going to be the norm not the exception.

Many hate options, but there is a crowd that likes them, and I’m one of them. I think professional traders and hedge funds all use options regularly. If you hate options, because they may expire worthless, is more about how we use them. If readers want more options commentary in the mix then please e-mail me and let me know. Locally I look for traders I can meet face to face with. My buddy has taken a full course on options trading, so if I need any questions cleared up then I will will consult to him. After this bullish phase appears and then starts to stall at the $30 price level, we know we have a big H&S to contend with, but think of them now as friendly H&S patterns.

The Gold/GDX ratio has been hitting a price brick wall at over 66:1 which is not extreme, from a 84:1 major low. The same thing that happens on the upside also happens to the downside, when the ratios seem to slow down and then reverse. At least GDX now has the “C” wave second bottom which is very important for a corrective pattern to complete.

 

Hits: 8

ABX: From A Bear To A Bull?

 

 

 

The more I look at this Barrick chart the closer I think it’s at a bottom. I counted the entire 5 wave decline as a near perfect impulse decline while other were far from being nice impulse waves. Moving the big “A” wave to the 2016 bottom sends us on about a 3 year time jump back into history. Jumping back in time also allows us to look forward and find a new location.

Barrick and other gold stock EFTs could soar as another “C” wave bullish phase is near.  I’m no longer and have reversed my positions last Thursday. I do not give any investment advice as if I did, I’m sure you would lose money at it if you jump in with an emotional “All IN”.  I post this stock as I think the decline we have been having is part of a correction and there is a good chance ABX could add a nice set of 5 waves in Minor degree, which are the prized target wave runs everyone should experience once.  I have no clue what the options chain looks like, but If I miss this up I will  try not to miss the ABX decline when it happens.

Once this starts it should take very little to start seeing a bullish pattern to develop. ABX is one of the biggest miners in the world, which is in the GDX ETF as well. So if I have GDX long positions I already would own a small part ABX .

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GDX Potential Bear Trap Review

 

 

In the last few weeks, many of the COT reports I watch, have shifted very quickly ,in gold,  silver, Britsih Pound, US dollar, Canadian Dollar, and a few others as the hedgers or commercials pile on som long positions. XGD, the Canadian Gold stock index has a completely different pattern than most other related ETFs. I have closed off my GDX short positions this morning and have added a small 100 share long position as a test. There could be more downside to go, and I still have some PUTs and Calls out that can add a bit of extra insurance, in both directions.

It would be nice for GDX to stop before a new low gets hit, as these expanded type moves can do that.

I moved the “A” wave in Primary degree to the 2016 bottom, which is also a time leap of about 3 years. Just by changing “one” letter we “time travel” on paper 3 years into the future. The EWP is not about just flipping numbers and letters around like flipping hamburgers on a grill, but the entire wave counting world does exactly that.

The Gold/Gdx ratio is at a bit over 66:1 with about 84:1 being the extreme cheap side in my records. That 66:1 number should expand if GDX keeps dropping for the rest of Sept.

There could also be another mean spike to the downside, which is what usally happens just before it turns.

Hits: 8

XGD, Canadian Gold Stock Index 2011-2018 Review

 

I haven’t looked at this index much before, but it sure has some interesting features not present on all the other gold related ETFs and indices that I cover.  One notable pattern is how high XGD  soared compared to all others, and even hit the middle of my wave 1-2 counter rally. This is as far as I can push any 4th wave rally, which I have run into many times. Elliott wave rules from the book do not work in commodaties, as it is all about connecting zigzags at all the big degree levels as well.

When we look at the late 2013 and 2014 bottom wave, it contains a 3 wave decline, which I think is part of an expanded 4th wave.  XGD should still crash well below the late 2016 bottom as any zigzag in progress is not finished just yet. We need the “C” wave to show itself, and travel to new record lows, to confirm that the 3 year+ bullish phase was just a fake.

Just in case XGD never completley retraces itself, then I already have an alternate ready to go. Once this wave position does fail I think the “A” wave in Primary degree will get moved to the 2013 bottom. 2013 was a very special year and it still is, as we also produced a double bottom in 2015.

I have no real track record on the Gold/XGD ratio but I started one, which worked out to 3.78. It takes 3.78 gold ounces to buy one unit of XGD. That number should get smaller as the cheaper it gets, we need less ounces to buy XGD units.

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HEP, Canadian Gold Producers Income ETF Update.

 

 

HEP is a Canadian ETF that says it is an income fund. I would have to do a lot more work to confirm that, as it doesn’t even have an options chain I can look at. It’s just one of those ETF’s that is only about $4 away from crashing through support. GOEX is another one. Not until all gold stock related ETFs have crashed to new lows that the majority might throw in the white towel!

Nobody has capitulated yet, which I think still needs to happen. It may take until early 2019 to bottom but then gold stocks could rally well into 2020.  This run can move HEP up to the $65 range.

The Gold/Hep ratio sits at 63:1 and that should spread even further as this bearish phase continues. When this hits a real bottom, I may buy some token positions only, as I will work GDX and GDXJ the hardest.

The decline since the 2011 peak has been 5 diagonal waves, which I will not count over and over for readers entertainment. All my work only requires 3 lower degree levels, and Minor degree is my lowest. Minute degree wave counts are only good for day traders or for those that have no clue what the bigger trend actually is.

2011 was a gold/silver 30 year mania peak and it’s correction is far from over. By the end of this year we may be 1/3 of the way through it. Fast violent reversals will happen and if the planning is not fully underway now, you will not be prepared when the first “A” wave in Primary degree arrives.

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SLV: Last Chance!

 

I cannot stress it often enough, how important it is to “not” watch the gold price if you want to figure out where the gold price is going next!  Silver and the gold stock ETFs is where the action is as they are the leaders. Silver only has less than 20 cents to make a complete reversal and soar, or it will be one of the first ETFs to cross to a new bear market record low. 2-3 other ETFs are catching up fast  and we could end up with a small group creating new record lows. There is no way that silver can be in a bull market, and I think it is impossible for gold to remain high while silver crashes.

Once SLV just closes below $13 then that would confirm that silver was in a bear market rally. All the investors are getting fooled by an Intermediate degree bullish phase, so It will be pretty easy to fool the majority again, once SLV ends on a Primary degree “B” wave rally!

There is no bottom in sight just yet, as I look for bear traps to develop all the time. I have to see when the majority get into a bear trap, at the exact same time, that I catch my own bear trap! I can get out of any situation after about 15 minutes of work at night, and by the time I wake up all my orders have been executed.

Silver is far from a major bottom but look to the 2008 crash bottom as major support $8-$10.  Silver has the same sideways pattern like gold, but this triangle is leaning over, which I call a running triangle. I never call them “truncations” as that would suggest an abnormal pattern. There is nothing abnormal about a running triangle.

When the headlines scream about silver not holding the $13 support price, chances are good that a trap is forming.

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Barrick Gold Corp: ABX 2011-2018 Review

 

Does it look like Barrick is in a bull market? That’s what the wavers claim and what gold investors believe. Only the metal gold has had an upward path, while all other gold related assets have been pointing down. The wild bullish phase that started in late 2015 soared well into mid 2016 before ABX started to decline again. Since the 2011 peak ABX has been in a 5 wave diagonal decline, that is very common but they are all connected with zigzags.

I see nothing that will make ABX suddenly switch directions and soar back up to $55. $55 seems to be a very popular number when many stocks and even ETFs turn at. I never ignore a Fibonacci number as markets seem to love the Fibonacci numbers. The $8 and $5 price level would be two targets, that would still have to get hit. We have 4 months where all hell can still break lose, so don’t get to excited about “investing” in ABX. I will never invest again as “when” we invest is the most important thing.

The majority of investors always get into one trap or another, and when they realize this then we could see some capitulation selling. There has been no capitulation since the 2011 peak, and even the 2015 low was rather boring and mundane. A downside break-out would be below the $6 price level with a potential $5 target as well.  We still have downside time to go, but I still would not make a heavy bullish bets. George Soros traded ABX and sold out just before the peak. Investors left a 365% gain on the table which took about 8 months to play out.

When the time comes I may look at some call option positions, but I will not make any large commitment as ETFs are more my thing!  I haven’t tracked any Gold/ABX ratio, but it should not be rocket science that ABX will be oversold below $5. I started trading with options in August 2018 so that is not nearly long enough to say I’m experienced. By the end of 2018 I will be, as all my PUTs will be closed off by then.

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DGL Physical Gold ETF: 2011-2018 Review

 

DGL is another gold tracking ETF which seems to track the cash gold futures charts very well. GLD,GLDM, IAU also track gold future very well, so they make good trading ETFs. If options were involved then this chart would behave much differently. DGL has to drop another $4-$5 before it crashes to new record lows. Any new record low will confirm that gold was just in a bear market rally and gold investors will get punished. 2011 was a 30 year gold and silver mania peak in Cycle degree, and it will not repeat itself until 2041! Once this 2018 hits bottom then we are only 1/3 of the way through gold’s bear market.

From the 2017 bottom to the 2018 top contains a triangle which can develop in diagonal 5th waves. The 5 waves down are diagonal waves and are very common in commodities. 2013 was also a special year as the internet was flooded with insider buying news!  I could have sworn that a major bottom has happened in 2013, but this was not to be. Not until years later, did it make sense as it turned out to be the home for the missing “A” wave location in Minor degree.

If we get massive insider buying news again, will remain to be seen, but it will become public information when they do.

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SLV: Bear Market Update

 

I made this chart last night but it’s still relevant as SLV added more downside with the start of early trading. Any price below $13 for SLV, then the markets will have confirmed that silver was in a bear market rally. SLV was only about $.50 away from breaking to new bear market lows.  It’s impossible for silver to go back into a bear market while gold is still far from doing the same thing.

Being brainwashed by the gold sector happens all the time as it also happens at peaks as well.  SLV and gold stock ETFs are far better early warning ETFs to watch as they act like leading indicators.

The majority will never learn what a bear market rally is, but for those that don’t understand a bear market rally, a bear market rally completley retraces itself back to and below the point of origin. In this case the late 2015 low. I add a little to this downside requirement as charts do show different results most of the time. GOEX is also another ETF that should cross to new lows, so more will be added to the list as September can be very bearish.

My main focus is with GDX and GDXJ as they are also my main trading ETFs at this time.  I have many more ETFs that I track which are also in my “Ratio Pool” and in bear market rallies this “Ratio Pool” hits a price brick wall. I have mentioned this many times when it was happening as I have about 20 ratios in this pool. Ratios can bend stretch to the extremes, but it’s mathamatical connection will never break! Math doesn’t lie, only people do!

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HEP: Gold Stock ETF Update

 

HEP is another ETF that tracks gold stocks and one of the reasons I track it, is that HEP is one of 3 ETFs that are closest to breaking to new record lows. Silver is another one, as it had about a $1.00 to go before it would rack up another new bear market lows.  I keep a ratio count on HEP as well, but need to establish a longer record. What I show is that an expensive Gold/Hep ratio hit about 20:1 with a 2015 low of about 61:1.

Today we have a 58:1 Gold/Hep ratio, which would be extreme when compared to the 61:1 low. There is nothing to stop it from hitting 100:1, so old ratio lows can be broken. Many ratios I keep have improved, in that they are getting cheaper when we use gold as purchasing power.  HEP is in my “Wave Pool” just as it is in my “Ratio Pool”, which are both in-house indicators that I use.

Markets are always bluffing us with a pair of two’s, so my main 8 indicators work like “4 Aces” in my hand, and another 4 up my sleeve, just to keep all bases covered. 🙄  If only one Ace lights up in my hand then this is not enough to take on any opposite bet.  Trading is an infinite game, where there are only dropouts. The only thing we have to beat is our own personal-best trade that we ever had.

Trying to beat the markets is a joke, as they will beat you up first, and then steal your money at the same time.

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GDX 2011-2018: 2018 Gold/Gdx Ratio Update!

 

 

When we are dazzled by the shine of the gold bull, we should be watching all gold shares and silver instead. The gold stocks will give us a bigger clue if we keep checking it up against gold. 30:1 was expensive with 84.67:1 being on the cheap side in late 2015. Today we are at a 63.7:1 Gold/GDX ratio, which is the cheapest GDX has been all year. This is a good thing but GDX, should still get much cheaper. I work about 20 ratios that I call my “Ratio Pool”, which are all in-house generated numbers.  My weekly Market Vane report is outside data, which reports only the percentage of bulls present. This still has some ways to go, as at 35%-40% bulls, still leaves to many bulls around. Low would be below 20% bulls or lower.

The hedge funds, non-commercials and speculators are all the same. The mass media thinks they are the smart money, which actually is the emotional dumb money. We can be gaurenteed that they will always get themselves in one trap or another, as they added more to their short positions in last weeks COT report. The bigger the hedge fund trap becomes, the bigger the ensuing rally will be, as they will be forced to close all their short positions, before they lose too much money. If we are lucky the commercials may even turn a bit net long in the process, which they have not done since the 1999 bottom.

The first leg down could still take all of 2018 to play out, but then it may also take all of 2019 for the counter rally to complete. This would make 2020 and 2021 two very bearish years, if we were to hit a major bottom by about 2021. Nobody is telling you that gold stocks and the general market could all end up getting closer together by the end of this year, as gold and the markets are at Cycle degree wave 3 peaks. This happened on a smaller scale with the 2008 crash, but now the entire world is sitting on some stage of a Death Cross!

Deflation is coming if we like it or not and the declining gold price is the biggest clue that deflation is on it’s way. Gold is already down over $700 since the 2011 mania peak. Every myth that gold investors have invented will not work, as gold will never protect you from deflation. The only way precious metals will protect you from impending inflation is when it is crushed in price, like what gold was in late 1999-2000. Gold assets do swing in both directions, but in the long run they will never hit zero like any crypto or paper based asset can. The gold market has about a 7.8 Trillion US dollar capital base, which is big enough for any trader to make a very good living with.

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SLV Wave Positions: “Garbage In, Garbage Out”

 

“Garbage In, Garbage Out”, is how it works with the EWP. Flipping numbers and letters around like they are hamburgers on a grill, just scrambles more of the garbage coming in, which in turn destroys every wave position we may think we have looking into the future. The majority of wave analysts and gurus focus on the gold price, and what the hedge funds are doing in gold. In most part they ignore silver and even ignore most of the gold stock ETFs as well. SLV follows the silver cash futures very well, so I know there are no options involved inside the SLV,  ETF.

The price support of $13 is the magic number that will confirm that silver was in just another bear market rally! Up top in 2012. we also had a bear market rally, as that entire bullish run was completely retraced. How can gold be in a bull market after SLV drops another $1 and falls below $13?  Market Vane in 2011 registered 96% silver bulls, one of the most extreme readings you will ever get and SLV imploded shortly after!

In 2011 SLV peaked before GLD by many months, so I think this theme will always be present, making Silver a very good leading indicator.  Gold investors think that the 2011 peak was just a peak in an on going bull market correction, but this is a “false assumption”.  2011 was a 30 year commodity mania peak and they do not correct in just 4-5 years. They also never end with a soft bottom like in late 2015. When I apply a 75-150-day MA, then we are sitting on a Death Cross right now! This is the worst bullish position we can find ourselves trapped in.

Those that are wishing and hoping for the return of the big silver bull, will have to wait until 2041 for a Supercycle degree wave III metals mania. At most during our life span, we can be part of two mania peaks and 2011 was my second mania peak.

The wave decline since 2011 has been a classic diagonal set of 5 waves, which I was not sure how to count when it happened. All commodities are about connecting big zigzags together which is why I include the “C” wave peak in Primary degree for 2011. Don’t get me wrong, as all of 2019 could be very bullish for the metals market which I plan to participate, to the fullest extent my real money account will allow!

Late 2011 also saw the first peak in solar cycle #24 much like what happened in 1980! In 1999 this flipped when the price of silver was propelled to the upside. This should happen again when solar cycle #24 ends.  The solar cycles are one of the most powerfull indicators for the starts and endings to bullish and bear cycles. Producing bearish wave counts when solar cycle #25 arrives will kill or trash every bearish wave count we can dream up, which should match my Cycle degree wave 4 bottom as well.

After this time period, there is a good chance that this blog will go “Dark” when “NO” more wave positions will be posted. This may even happen sooner, as in the last 2.4 years, no practicing wave analyst has expressed any real desire to work inside the Cycle degree parameters that I follow. If nobody is willing to devote their life to maintaining Cycle degree wave analysis, then all my work will end up getting buried in history, never to rise again. Modern wave analysts have destroyed the EWP, which all happened after the mania peak in 2000!  In the early days it was one on one, that kept the EWP going, as there was no internet at that time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GDXJ, 2011-2018 Review

 

GDXJ is still on a bit of a rally like gold did today as well. With this chart I use the 50-100-day MA which works as well.  From the top we started with a Death Cross which no sane technical analysts should ignore but investors sure ignore this deadly indicator. Back in late 2017 we had another Death Cross so I remain bearish with my positions. I will not make it public how many positions I have in anything but will give a cash out capital base once all present short positions and PUTS have been closed off.  This could take the rest of 2018 to happen.

I have given my full trading account numbers to my friend so he can witness what I’m doing.

The Gold/GDXJ ratio this morning sits at 42.5:1 which is the cheapest it has been all year!  This is good, but I want this ratio to expand much more by the end of the year. A Gold/GDXJ ratio of 62:1 is very cheap, so we still have some ways to go. All my ratio calculations are in a “Pool” as well, as it is one of 8 core indicators that I use.

Maybe some people find the lack of wave counts unreal. I’m not a day trader or an investor, but more a positional trader, as finding the right position for a reversal requires a far better job at the analytics. I look for 5 wave moves in Minor degree or larger as I sure do not want to miss any 5 wave sequence again.

As far as I can see, my gold related wave positions will “Always” have real money behind them except for the short times that I may be in all cash.

“ALL” those pretty wave counts you see as counted by the majority, have “No” money behind them, as they show me they have nothing else better to do than flip numbers and letters around like they are hamburgers. Betting against all those gold bullish wave counts is a no-brainer for me.

The 2011 peak was a 30 year mania peak, which we will not see happen again until 2041, or at least I won’t see it, as I will be having coffee with RN Elliott by that time!

We get out of the EWP by what we design it for, and if flipping numbers is all you want to do then that is all you will get. I can never make any money based on any popular wave counts out today!

 

 

 

 

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SGDM Bear Market Plunge Update.

This is another gold stock tracking ETF and is acting much the same as all other gold stock ETFs I track.

Gold settles at lowest level in more than 1 ½ years in broad metals-sector rout

I bet this little crash surprised the gold investors as they will get very itchy trigger fingers, if gold stock ETFs don’t start turning around soon. SGDM only has about a $5 window to show us that a bull market is still coming. It’s just not going to happen, as SGDM still has to fall well below $11 US!  SGDM could also fall below $8, so I rule nothing out.

The 2011 peak was a 30 year mania peak in a wave 3 top in Cycle degree. Bubbles of this magnitude do not end well as declining gold and gold stocks is the sign of deflation.

This should all still take 3 years or so to play out and even the next bullish phase I expect will also be a bear market rally. Just in case nobody has told you the description of a bear market rally, then the basic “law” applies as all bear market rallies always retrace everything back down to and below the point of origin. Every wave two rally does the same thing, as an entire decline is made up with mini bear market rallies.

Vertical down moves like this usually dictate a potential bigger counter rally to come, but again time will settle that argument.

Hits: 7

HUI 2011-2018 Bear Market Update!

The 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak that has still to finish the first set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. They are connected with zigzags  like “All” commodities are, with our last “B” wave in Minor degree already completed. The “C” crash bottom will be the last one when it finishes sometime towards the end of 2018!

It also means the angle of the decline will also increase as the HUI still has to fall below the 100 price level, to confirm that our present bullish phase was just a big bear market rally. It was only an Intermediate degree at the 2016 top, so any future “B” wave in Primary degree has to exceed the 2016 peak by a wide margin.

This anticipated “B” wave in Primary degree will be the last and final chance to unload all gold stock and bullion investments. I always work 3 steps ahead of the crowd, which I have been doing for decades already, as it is the quickest way for me to catch mistakes at the earliest time.

Those who are not ready by the end of September will be late, and as it takes major planning to reverse once the bottom is near!  I will use $5000 as my USD model account and have sacrificed about $500 CAD with 10 Puts on GDX (100 shares per PUT) which expire by September 18th. I will take any green offerd to me at that time but the pay back will all be on my CAD side.

This is all good as I also get to build up my CAD side as well as my USD side. As of this morning all my accounts are in the green! Which is a good thing, right?  🙂

 

Hits: 7

SIL: Bearish Trend Continues!

Now that we can look back to that 2016 peak it would have been a good time to close off any long positions and then revert to a bearish short position.  SIL has to completley retrace itself back down and below the point of origin to confirm that this entire bull market was nothing but a bull trap as new lows are certainly going to happen in the next 3-4 months.  I use a 75-150-day MA on these charts which shows that the 75-day MA is ready to create a Death Cross. I find that any Death Cross of this magnitude is one of the most important technical indicators that I have added this year.

The last Golden Crossing sure never lasted that long which does happen, but I would never knowingly invest at the top of a Death Cross. Death Cross is excatly what it sounds like as your account turns red long before they happen. I may not be able to buy in at the bottom as my main focus will be,  GDX,GDXJ, GLDM. We have lots to choose from, far more than what I will need in the next few years.  SIL should fall well below $13 and $8 would not be an issue. Paying too much attention to gold will always give you the wrong signals as silver and gold stock related ETFs tell us a much different story.

The angle of decline has to turn down sharper, which I’m sure SIL will do, along with all other gold stock related ETFs. Deflation is the name of the game and SIL is demonstrating this perfectly. The bullshit stories of how gold or silver can protect you in a deflation is totally wrong, only when gold or silver prices have been crushed will  gold or silver protect you from any future inflation.

My “A” bottom in Primary degree will be one of the best and last buying positions for the next bullish run that is sure to follow. If you are still sitting on the fence saying, “Well you never know”, it’s just a bad excuse for not even wanting to do the minimum amount of work required to understand trends. Missing a major bearish trend or a major bullish trend is unacceptable from my perspective.

When betting short, our timing must be impeccable or sublime so “maybe” must be turned into 20/20 foresight vision. Any new record low will just be part one ending, as the 2019 counter rally should be the biggest since 2011!

Hits: 3

GDXJ 2011-2018 Review

GDXJ hit its mania top in late 2010 and then proceeded to double top and  implode in a 5 year decline. Since this 2011 peak I had little understanding how a 5 wave diagonal wave structure is supposed to count out. I’m a fast learner as there are two major types of diagonal 5 wave declines, besides all commodities are zigzag bull markets that can span decades. The zigzag “C” wave ending 2010  is close to 41 years in the making. The next 5th wave in Cycle degree will also be another big zigzag, which will not peak until 2041. (Gold SC Wave III) Silver is a prime example of the zigzag world that commodities are “always” in, and using the EWP to count stock market type counting in commodities will not work.

This so called bear market is far from over as the last of the zigzags still has to play out. This could take to the end of November, maybe by the 21st of November 2018. No price support ever lasts and I’m sure this $30 price will not hold. Any bear market rally must always retrace itself back to the point of origin, and lower. If gold stock investors can get fooled by an Intermediate degree bear market rally, then they will certainly get fooled once the Primary degree “B” wave top is completing.

The Gold/Gdxj ratio has also been hitting a price brick wall at 39.27:1, which should increase as GDXJ continues with it’s bearish trend. I also have a small wedge showing which is a very bearish pattern. I don’t have any bearish positions on GDXJ but I do with GDX. I will be tracking about 3-4 ETFs and all the entry sequences I have mention would just be cloned for any other bear or bullish reversal we will run into. All the work I do is also scalable from the smallest home trading base to larger trading firms or partnerships. GDX, GDXJ,  IAU, GLDM I will consider to use for the capital base that I might have by the time this all hits a bottom later this year.

Deflation is the name of the game, not inflation as the world is coming off the biggest inflated asset world ever, and all commodity asset classes will take a big hit. The entire world is sitting on Death Crosses including gold, and if I ignore this simple fact than I would be wiped out like the majority always do. My buddy and I are having another lunch meeting on Wednesday, where we can spend 2 hrs into covering what I see on a one-one basis. I will be throwing PUTs and Calls into the mix but only PUTs at this time.

Since GDXJ will be off the charts we could expect anything between $8 and $13 as a bottom reversal window. I like to use the “window” description as all windows close shut. Your either in the position you want or your out. Betting on the markets to go down must have impeccable timing in order for it to work well. If you only know how to trade the markets in a bullish trend then we are only running at 50% efficiency or worse. The only way to get wave pattern theoretical maximum is by planning all the trades we expect to happen in the next 3 years. Even then, if we can only capture 80% of Wave Theoretical Maximum we would be doing extremely well.

This is not a horse race folks, as trading is an infinate game where we only have dropouts. I’m a gold bear rider or a gold bull rider, and the only thing that matters is that we achieve a new personal best trade. All the markets are always bluffing us with a pair of “twos” compared to my 4 aces that I want in my hand at all times.  Of course an extra 3 aces up my sleeve always helps. 🙄 Only my one on one paid consulting clients get to see my aces and what they mean.

For now I will use a model USD $5000 based trading account as that is the minimum we should start with. Not until the late spring 2019 peak will we know at what numbers we cash out at. Trading is all about taking the minimum risk capital, and then parley that into something we can use as a home based trading accout.

Trading is about avoiding all bear and bull traps, and that information is free on the internet today. The problem is nobody wants to do the work required to detect these traps, as everybody wants a get rich quick answer. My goal is to eventually draw $13,000 CAD per year which would give me a combined income of about $40,000 CAD per year. I assure you, I would be living high on the hog at $40,000 per year!

 

 

Hits: 7

GLDM: New Gold Tracking ETF, First Look!

 

Here we go again as another new ETF tracking the price of gold at about a 10:1 ratio. The volumes are still pretty low, and that is mostly the reason we have so many gaps on this trip down.  Will all these gaps get filled?I’msure they will as I will apply my basic strong indicator that every gap has a 90% chance of getting filled. At this time the tally is 4 open gaps. Even at its worst low GLDM will still be above the $5 fear level when ETFs can execute inverse splits, with a possiable 4:1 reduction in shares.

The is some wicked trend and angle so we may not see a good bearish rally until GLDM hits the bottom trend line. We still have along way to go down, but it should match my gold futures chart very well. Readers are not going to get any wave positions on this chart until my “A” wave in Primary Degree arrives. I have never knowingly chased a bull market nor will I ever try chasing a bear market. There is going to be one of the best buying positions at an “A” wave bottom, so have patience for another 4-5 months.

What could be lining up this year is that the stock markets all crash but bottom along with gold. That would put both the DOW and gold end on an “A” wave in Primary degree.

This will drive investors nuts as by the time they figure out what happened, the markets will slowly start to turn bullish again. Once this first synchronization occurs then the odds become extremely high, for the two to stay synced for the final countdown as well. Both gold and the DJIA will bottom on a Cycle degree wave 4.

Think about GLDM sitting on a Death Cross, while the rest of the investing world is also sitting on Death Crosses. Real estate is going to take the biggest hit in history which will destroy most government and private pension plans or at least give them major valuation declines. Hedge funds will also get hit as they are those emotional speculators I keep talking about.  The majority of all analysts report what the speculators are doing, not what the commercials are doing. That works fine with me as it’s the speculators that “Always” get into one trap or another. When the speculators become very bearish, then I’m very confident that they are trapped, and gold will go the opposite way.

 

 

 

 

 

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GDX Bear Market 2011-2018 Review

 

The 2011 GDX top was a 30 year mania peak  that is far from over in its correction. It could take well into the fall before we would only be a third of the way through.

The entire zigzag in Primary degree may not finish until 2021 or so as this would be close to a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom. That would work out to a 10 year bear market which is a bit shorter than some that took 13 years to complete. This inflated world is going to crash and gold will follow it down as well, reflecting deflation perfectly. Gold will not protect you from inflation unless gold hits a rock bottom below $500. Extreme prices for everything servers no one, as it stiffles all activity over time. Inflation is no longer the threat as deflation will be the core reason why gold and gold stocks are still going to crash.

If your waiting for the US dollar to collapse then you could still be waiting when your 6 feet under. The USD could be on a Supercycle degree bull market that will last longer than our present lifetime or 2041 and beyond. The cause is the great worldwide fertility crash that will intensive after every stock market crash. This happened in 2010 as reports of a fertility crash surfaced.

The Gold/GDX ratio is sitting at 57.3:1 this morning, which is better, but still a far cry from being cheap at 84:1. I also keep an in-house “gold ratio pool” of about 15 items that only my clients get to see and ask questions on. The same thing goes for my “Wave Pool of 50 asset classes” which is all in-house maintained as well. Also a Death Cross Pool would keep track of any Death or Gold Crosses that might be forming. My buddy and I meet about once a month, and I assure you we are in full planning stages, to squeeze the most efficiency out of every major move, for the entire Cycle degree move. We can only squeeze in a few hours but it is the best way to help each other to be very clear in what we have to do, later this year and in late spring of 2019. My wave positions will be continuosly tested with real money from 2018 forward, and the next three years.

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IAUF Another Example Of Gold Crashing

 

http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/ishares-gold-etf-debuts

 

This is only an example of what not to touch as this gold related ETF is actively traded! Well the shares traded this morning was 1 share! Nobody is too impressed with this ETF. Please do not get investing and trading mixed up as I will never give investment advice, but I only consult with clients about the gold cycles and futures charts. This is not a futures chart, and it has built-up no record pattern at this time.  This IAUF has much more to fall and I would not spend even buying a PUT!

We have many choices with gold related ETFs so I will never waste my time with this off-shore Based ETF.

 

 

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GDM: Gold Miner Index Bear Market Review

 

GDM is another gold stock index and I look at it from time to time,  as an alternate source of data besides the HUI.  Gold stocks slumped a bit more this morning, and from my perspective the bearish rally is breaking down. It peaked just about two years ago, and is heading down to a new record low by this fall. Right now the angle looks harmless, but these moves can drop in a vertical move, that can also produce a huge gap.

I can’t give a more simple or direct description in what a bear market rally is, “any bear market rally must retrace all and back to below the point of orgin.”  When I see wave analysts turn a bear market rally into a bull market, then I get choked how much they will cause the unsuspecting investor  to lose money.  This is not the time to invest when gold hit a 30 mania peak in 2011. There is always a time when to invest in gold stocks and another time when to trade them.  Trading started back in 2011 and will continue until the 2021 time period or when solar cycle #25 starts to rise from the northern part of the sun.

The sun can breakup a bearsih mood pretty quick once it gets going.  XAU is also another gold stock related index which I check as well.

 

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GLD: Bear Market Progress Update.

 

Always remember that the Death Cross is alive and real in gold, which GLD represents very well. GLD follows the futures chart very well except GLD has its patterns a bit smoother. I always had gold as a bear market rally, but was not sure of the location or excatly the pattern that we were going to get. One support leg has already been “taken out” while 3 more bull market support price levels will get taken out as well.

The entire bullish gold investors universe rests on one price to hold at $100 while $80 in GLD was always major support from my perspective. This 5th wave has one little special wave in it and that is it has a triangle in the “B” wave position. This little triangle is a clear signal that my wave count has to end on a higher degree, once the 5th wave bottom has clearly formed.  I will not take a position in GLD when the bottom arrives as I will see what IAU does. Most of my attention will be on GDX and gold stock ETFs.

My Cycle degree wave positions will eventually give me enough to create a very good home based income all based on cash flow. Cash is king in my world, so I use my cash base as an escape route if necessary. The only thing I need is to protect my cash, so I can keep betting the way I’m used to doing.

“All” the gold investors think we just finish a gold bull market correction, when in fact the 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak, that will not happen again until 2041! (2011+30) 2041 will be the home of the next SC degree wave 3 peak, but I will never see it happen. It’s the younger generation of wave analysts that might catch it.

The US dollar is in a huge bull market that the gold experts do not understand, if they are expecting the US dollar to crash. Good luck with that as I tried for years to do the same thing and it never worked. At every 30 year gold peak it’s time to sell all excess bullion, as it sure is not the time to “invest” in gold assets.

Any Cycle degree wave 4 has to look much like the crude oil crash has already done, while gold topped 3 years after oil. Oil is giving us a preview in what gold should eventually look like as well.  That was a soft landing in late 2015, and I assure you bear markets do not land softley. They end with a crash!

I’m very bearish on gold and gold stocks and have taken bearish positions in mostly GDX and IAU. Any doubt, then my trading account records will confirm that these positions have been taken. My GDX positions are all traded with real money and “No Stops” of any type.

 

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Silver: Last Chance To Still Be In A Bull Market

 

We are getting very close to another downside move to a point where silver must turn and soar, if it still wants to destroy my bearish wave positions. Silver is $ 2.35 away from breaking all new bull market record lows. So when silver does fall below $13 then it was just in a bear market rally, and the mass of silver bugs were in a bull trap.

From the 2016 August peak and then down to that late 2016 bottom, was a Diagonal set of 5 waves, which the gold wavers called a zigzag correction. It’s just a triangle in a “B” wave, and a running “B” wave to boot.

Here is a COT report on silver  which still has the commercials in a bearish mood, while the small traders and big speculators are bullish.  Commercials are close to the core silver business and have the least amount of risk when they hedge. Speculators are the animals as they go wild chasing anything that moves in any direction. Their not in much of a bull trap right now,  but that can still change in a very short time.

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SLV: 2011 Was A 30 Year, Cycle Degree Wave 3 Silver Mania Top!

I have no doubt I can read my bubble tops in commodities  and the 2011 peak was part of a 30 year cycle from 1980. This cycle has about a plus or minus 1 year cyclical rate, which in my world is far to accurate for me to believe in instantly. I know what this 30 year frequency comes from, as yesterday I researched it some more, and as far as I’m concerned it is imperative that the Cycle degree silver and gold asset trader, must incorporate this 30 year cycle in forecasting in Cycle degree out to 2041, 2071 and 2101.

Remember, all top wavers can’t forecast Cycle degree positions, but since Cycle degree is the lowest in the mathematical sequence we must all follow it. This concept of being first is hard to grasp but it is the core of what the EWP is all about. “AFTER” Cycle degree we get to Supercycle degree, and we can’t break this sequential code ever! Not by a single degree! Just imagine if you are out by a single degree in 2011? Or the 1999 bottom. Every single wave count on this planet today must have a Cycle degree base or they have nothing at all!  You can tell the wavers that have filled out every little wave in minute degree have nothing better to do, and have no risk capital at stake.

This means mathematically, that a Cycle degree world will, if it gains traction, will cut and slice every single wave count on the planet today!  I’m on my third year of working this blog dedicated to Cycle degree analysis. It’s not about me, but it’s all about keeping Cycle degree wave analytics first!  The wave principle is a sequential code and once broken, SC and GSC degree wave counts will infiltrate and infest Cycle degree like rats in a barn. I spent years getting rid of the rat infestation, but this is my third and last time, as there is “No Retreat” from 2018 on into the future. Having the wrong degree and just flipping numbers one degree, can put you out 30 years or more!

I rent, but I have an 80 square foot office space that I call my home based world. Any small space you are cozy in will work. I have worked all the time to build the EWP the way I need to eventually have a good trading account to keep making a living for the rest of my life. Hopefully others see it as well, and when your independent, nobody tells you what to do. You are the boss, and you like working for a good guy right!

Silver and GDX are about the same price range so we can use every thing from the GDX world into this SLV world. After 20 years of reading futures charts I see no reason why SLV cannot be used when buying low. SLV tracks silver very well as GLD and IAU tracks gold. This next bottom in SLV could be below support as it is a previous 4th wave like position.

I want readers to know that I can stop all wave position postings and go dark and still trade this without ever putting a mark on a chart. If you want a detailed wave position it will cost you 10 ounces of pure silver, per hour!  If some rich hedge funds wants to see my gold research then they must deposit $233,000 USD cash in consulting fees  into my USD side trading account, before I even give them the time of day!

You can get a kick out of it, but my father in-law charged $400 per hour consulting fees back in the early 80’s.

I’m convinced that the commodities markets and the stock markets are going to sync up and should crash and rise  together with the “B” wave before they all implode near the 2021 bottom time period. I’m a trader for that very reason as investors lose more money than any trader ever will. We are not afraid to go to “cash” when we need to. In a traders world cash is king!  To be honest I would rather sit around with a bunch of serious trader types than anyone else because we would have alot more fun, once the ice is thawed.

Silver cannot fall below $13 because if it does, then all the bull market rhetoric (BS) will be proven to be one big fat lie!

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GDX Bear Market Impending Crash Review

For the last 2 years and 3 months of publishing Cycle degree wave positions, not a “SINGLE” wave analyst has expressed any desire to want to switch over to Cycle degree wave analysis. So I will give readers fair warning as I may shut down after this 3 year exercise is done sometime around 2021 or the start of solar cycle #25.

I could stop all wave position postings and just put up a blank charts completely cutting off all wave counts and Cycle degree wave counting will come to a screeching halt, get buried in history, never to rise again. This site is not generating any funds to even maintain it, so this goes to show the lack of interest in Cycle degree wave analysis.

Even though it is the most real money tested wave count in history, viewers don’t even have the minimum of $5000 to start with.

 

I will show you my control entry numbers and what could be done if the planning is in full swing already. $100 shares is pretty lame but these are needed to test the waters and to start accumulating for the bottom. I have done this many times before where I push my trade allocation to the max. 500 shares of GDX below the $8 price will give you a good healthy position of $4000, and $1000 cash held back. The biggest fear factor will always come to play when we don’t have enough cash back up at a 4:1 ratio.

At major bottoms I have no problem with that but at major tops I do. This ratio should be reversed at every major top, play down lite is the name of the game and I use the 80/20 principle for that.   I will add a PDF that I use and then can be used to do all your calculations on for any trades you will ever do. I plan on having a $1200 share plan ready but may add more at the last minute.  All my short bets will be closed off as soon as we get to $8 GDX and the the control entry sequence must already be in place.

Once we know that we are averaged in below $8 then each and every trader feels the same thing connected to all that have at least one hundred share long positions.  We may be in the red but as soon as GDX crosses $8 every one around the world will see green at the exact time they were all online at the same time.  When you see “ALL” your lights go green at the same time as mine do, then this gives us a “green rush” that you will always remember for the rest of your life!

Now imagine we are still below $8 just hanging around watching the gold bulls fall from the sky. The minute you cross above $8 your entire position is already green and we just got started. This is not some fantasy I invented but it happens all the time if your right!  With a potential exit target at $55 your 500 share position in at $8, will cash out at $27,500 in March-May or so of 2019!

Now expand this to where a heavy hitter does the same thing but wants more than just wages, he wants a million dollar cash out, move. That involves 20,000 shares, but then must be shared with GDXJ to carry that kind of a load! You would need about a $160,000 trading account to pull that of. My calculations might be $66,000 USD cash out.  In the end going to cash is our home base when things get rough, or we switch direction. Cash is always the escape plan! 🙂  My plan is to get to an $89,000 base as I can draw out some wages with that and still build. Once you have a $233,000 trading account you generate income when you like, as you have room to spare. I have been paying myself already but only in very small $100-$200 draw downs.

I hope you see the importance of calculating out all your potential before, so there is lots of double checking and calculations that we must do. control sequence.rtfd   is a short PDF with just one suggestion of 5 positions for a control entry sequence. I calculate at least 3-4 of these to make sure you know the total capital outlay of any trade you will ever make.  It can be cloned, and scaled up for bigger amounts or companies.

I’m not an investor but a purely independent thinker that needs no outside indicators to make work. I rely on no other “Expert” opinion to survive in a major market crash and bear market of any kind.

 

 

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GDX Crash Bottom Plan [A] Review.

Even when we are still far from the bottom my planning process for the bottom is in full swing  and has been for months already. If you think this is too early then think again, because you are “late” as the control entry sequence should be worked out already, you can not be late to this gold bear riding party or the performance will suffer.

Lets say we are just a few dollars above the $8 market I will close of all my GDX short positions and then put in my control sequence right away. The reason for this is many times ,the last move can be deadly as the bottom falls out with gold stocks. GDX can crash right through the $8 price level right down to $7 in one move that nobody can catch. All your orders must be set before this and then you just wait for the markets to do their thing and all your orders would be picked up instantly when this happens.

As soon as this happens you will be deep in the red and panic will ensue! Oh my god! What have I done” I see “red” and I’m down 50%.  For the very first time it is scary when we see red but it is only a loss when you take the loss. This sea of red might have 5 orders in it and not a single color of green is showing. Frickin scary right? I will tell you in blunt terms that I always see red before I see any green at all.  Your last buy order will give you first clues that a turning is in progress by flickering green here and there. At that point your 50% draw down moves to 48% or 46% and you will slowly see the red numbers get better, at that point the turning may be in place. At about the same time more green lights will show until one day “ALL” lights are green and we have turned the corner. When you see and experience this as it happens,  you get a rush that is hard to explain to anyone. Green is Good!

Also remember that if you started your control entry sequence under $8 then as “soon” as GDX crosses $8, your entire account will be green, and you are just barely out of the $8 gate!  From $8 you should already be in the green on all shares, and it should stay green for the entire run back up to $55 or so.

This is not some tall tail I’m telling you, but it comes from experience as it is my preferred way of entering a major crash bottom. The same thing already is happening with my short bets on GDX  and another drop will send my 500 shares into the green.  I think I may have the chance to look for a 1200 share position as that duplicates my 2008 crash bottom order as well.  I screwed  that up a bit but still came out smelling like a rose with one of my best GDX trades of my life.

We could get the same this time, but we have a much bigger support price than 2008, as in 2008 we had no real bottom.  At $8 this first leg will complete and then we start on another huge counter rally that will “also” be a bear market rally. After the big peak is in, GDX will suffer a bear market that will destroy any smooth talking  gold bull that is in the way, as gold bulls will get shredded again. This time it will be a bigger shredder as the gold bulls will be fat with profits as well. If someone  comes along and tells you that your are breaking the rules when buying low, then tell them, “What fricken rules? There are no rules in a bull and bear fight, in a ring! The only thing that matters is that you find the first golden bull and you ride for a personal best trade. I don’t give investment advise as I’m not an investor but a trader speculating on major turnings.  I only look for the best possible positions in any 5 wave run as that is what creates long or big moves and are a sight to behold.  An investor rarely does this as they never would skew such a trade as it is to risky. I do it all the time to supplement my living as I’m rebuilding my account.

What we all must know before hand, is that if in a panic and you don’t know what to do or are confused, then go to your account at night and put all orders to sell at market and you will jump into cash before you get up in the morning. “GO TO CASH”, if need be as that is the traders safe-haven world! We don’t need fancy footwork in trying to stabilize our portfolios as we have none. In 5 minutes of opening you will be as stable as a rock, and then get ready planning for another turning. Capital preservation is the top priority here, nothing else matters. If ever you were to carry your 100 shares, down, up and then down again. Nobody on this planet has the right to tell you how to trade because if I had a trading house you would be the first to join my club.

This is long and drawn out but I will add some more pages below until we cover the full 3 moves we need to make to ride both ways. By only knowing how to go “long” we are only running at 50% efficiency and that to me is unacceptable to leave 50% of the money on the table.

I will post my control entry sequence later below this page, so we will be prepared as best as we can before this crash hits bottom. (5 orders)

All what I have just explained, I explained to a 28 year male Millennial last night, and he is a young working native kid.  After this I asked him, “does this all make sense to you?

And he said, “Yes”.

When at this low bottom and cries of deflation are rampant, then think about the real fundamentals already in place that will send the gold price soaring again. I will let you figure it out as it is important to only those that are “in”.

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The 10 Ounce Silver Coin, A Beautiful Coin

Border Gold

Ten Ounce silver coin I call the “Silver Stone” in US dollars

 

I have one of these coins which I take with me to some family gatherings and you should see the looks in their faces when they see this coin for the first time. When the price crashes I will by some more and give one to my granddaughter as she was born in 2017.

This coin has a very tough tamper proof seal on it that can take a lot of punishment. Before I went and got this I printed out a price and it was 238.08 CAD. Two hours later I picked up the coin and it fell .08 cents.  After this crash is done and finished gold and silver prices will be very low, but at the very same time they are producing the base that will hold for a very long time looking ahead to the first 2041 year cycle.  I can’t confirm it just yet but I tried to calculate the time period right up to 2101 and found that this 30 year cycle has a 1 to 2 year plus or minus forecasting window which is so close it has made a big impression on me that I can’t ignore. I know the reason for the 30 year cycle, and I will not divulge it freely to people that have no skin in this game.

Hits: 10