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Category Archives: GOLD&SILVER STOCK ETFS

SIL 2011-2018 Review: Bullish Or Bearish?

The majority are focusing their attention on gold or GLD. SIL is the ETF for silver miners.  From the 2011 peak SIL transformed into a bearish phase that very few people expected. In 2011 extreme silver optimisium forecast for a $200 silver price and all the analysts agreeded that much higher silver prices were still to come. This SIL market made liars out of all the experts as it didn’t care about any bullish analysts opinions.

Right from the 2011 top, wave structures did not fit well into any pure declining impulse pattern. At that time I was not very confident in counting down diagaonal wave structures. Also the 2011 peak was about as clear as Mississippi mud at that time as I was still counting everything in GSC and SC degree. Virtually every counter rally we see the media also turned bullish, yet it didn’t last and then it resumed its larger trend. Diagonals are counted just like the book says in the description for ending diagoanls, when room allows.

Of course the 2016 bullish phase changed all that. Or did it? SIL exploded and soared close to $55 and peaked in early August 2016. This fantastic bullish run came well within my wave 2, which is an instant confirmation that we are dealing with diagoanl wave structures.  All this matters little if we are not firm in the understanding what the wave position the 2011 peak really is. If we believe that 2011 is a Cycle degree wave three peak, then it is much easier to know what we’re supposed to look for. Since we are working 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, then we know that a Cycle degree zigzag will eventually have to form.

There is no way that the 2016 peak was a pure impulse, and even if it was, the correction to it would be far from over. During the bearish phase SIL has made two lower lows, while gold stock ETFs have only made one. Most analysts ignore all that but when you are counting out waves we have to look for these small differences all the time.

It’s a good time to run a couple of parallel trend lines and they point to a possible down side price target. If SIL so much as spikes a penny lower, than the 2016 low, then the entire  bull market will be confirmed as being nothing but a bear market rally. I call them fake bull markets as well. It’s the job of the markets to fool as many participants and observers as it can, with SIL doing a fantastic job. SIL also rolled around the $55, and $34 price levels which are Fibonacci numbers. The next Fibonacci numbers lower would be $21 and $13, with the $14.50 price level as being the record low to beat. Each single Fibonacci number is a 61% crash, so any expected decline still to come sure can chop our trading accounts down to size.

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TGOD And TGOD.WT Bearish Move Review

When an asset class goes vertical like TGOD has done after its IPO, then the people that were in the original IPO would be very rich! There is one big trick to all this as all investors have not made a single dime, until they have sold out. There were well over 2 million shares traded today and I bet many of the IPO investors are dumping to lock in their profits. The worst thing we can do is chase this bull market, but to wait until a good correction is visable.

I try to avoid single stock commentary but I can’t help it.  🙂 I show a “B” wave top in Minor degree as it syncronized well wth the peak in HMMJ.  TGOD could crash so deep that it will shock most participating speculators.  TGOD could retrace its entire IPO move if we are close to matching the HMMJ ETF pattern. No Price support is going to help us here if a 100% retracement is going to happen.

This is the warrant chart  for TGOD and the “B”wave top is just s reference point to the HMMJ pattern. TGOD.WT could fall well below $1.00 before it could be ready to bottom.

I’m sure TGOD is not inside the HMMF ETF, but it can still act much like HMMJ. Only time will tell, as to how well they will syncronize with each other. As far as I can tell from the HMMJ ETF is that we are correcting, but not finished at this point. Once I see a sufficient correction has taken place then a full set of 5 waves up should follow.  (5 waves in Minor degree)  Any trader should not miss 5 waves up in Minor degree, as that is the most exciting thing you can ever experience.

We are going to get swamped with good buying opertunities, but there are only a few that know how to catch a, “falling knife”, in a  “C” wave crash!

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GDXJ Gold Stock 2011-2018 Review

 

It took me a long time to count out the GDXJ bear market, but only until I concentrated on diagonal wave structures did it start to make sense.  I thought we would get a zigzag bull market but that has no materilzed by any streach of the imagination.  The fast 2016 move up  has been followed by a bearish phase that looks nothing like a correction that has finished.  Many of the Gold stock ETFs I track had new record lows in early 2018. This is well over a year where gold stocks are out of sync with each other.

In the 2008 gold stock crash, they were not this far out of sync as they are now. Even though gold has shot up a bit in the last few days, these ETFs have been rather subdude.

The big question is if the 2016 rally, is not just another bear market rally!  Gold analysts have been very bullish but yet gold stocks seemed to be ignoring the bullish rhetoric.

One undeniable fact is that all bear market rallies get completley retraced, and about the only way we can confirm this is when it happens. Support means little as it’s always a question, “Support for what?” Support for the next leg up, or just temporay support before the next trip down?

The straight move up from the 2016 bottom is typical for a bear market rally so until this proves out I will remain bearish on gold stock ETFs.  I own one gold stock and a gold stock fund that pays some dividends which I will keep, otherwise I have been short several CAD gold stock ETFs and have no plans on closing them off.

From what I see may happen, is once this new low materilizes then we will be swamped with good buying opportunities, so those that have a bit of cash might be lucky enought to take advantage of it. I think we should end on a Primary degree “A” wave, which should be followed by another huge bullish move in 2019.

What this gold stock rally has done, is get more people excited and involved so when the next bullish phase comes along these added investors will push the markets much further north than anticipated.

The Gold/Gdxj ratio is sitting at 39.36:1 which has been about the same for most of April and May 2018. I would rather see it get closer to 49:1 before GDXJ may look cheap again.

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SLV, Silver ETF 2011-2018 Review

SLV is the ETF that tracks silver. This chart shows that SLV peaked in 2011 after which SLV turned into a bearish phase, that looks like it ended in late 2015.  Since the 2015 bottom  many assume that the metals bear market is over and many have turned bullish.  Any metals wave counts must always start with the 2011 peak which I think is the location for Cycle degree wave 3.  Any wave count must start from a specific location and in this case SLV matches all the gold and silver peaks w’vehad so far.

Is a 4+ year bearish phase long enough to call the SLV bear market completed?  Not for a Cycle degree correction it’s not, as we had several bear markets lasting 13 years.  It might work for an Intermedeate or even a Primary degree bear market, but for a Cycle degree bear market it is far from over.

The majority assume anything that goes up is in a bull market, as they know little about how big bear market rallies can acually get. Every bear market rally must get completley retraced, even if it is by a very small amount.  All commodaties have a very high degree of diagonal wave structures in them as the entire Submillennium degree 5 wave sequnce is also a diagonal.

In diagonal waves there are many connecting zigzags and from what I have seen all of my Cycle degree 4th wave bear markets are turning out to be Cycle degree zigzags.  We have a few that are triangles, which are also zigzags.

SLV has been running across the top trend line, and if this bullish sceneriois true then SLV  should blow past this top trend line. This must happen soon as it’s not normal for a summer bull market to give us another major leg up.   Any dip towards my center trend line would work and SLV may never hit the bottom trend line on this trip.  All SLV needs to do is fall a few pennies below the 2015 low and this so called bull market will turn out to be a fake.  (Bear Market Rally)

Until this plays out I will remain bearish, but I’m sure another very bullish leg will come. It to will be a fake but this time it will be a Primary degree bear market rally.  Since our present rally was an Intermedeate degree rally, then chances are good that SLV will travel about 61% higher than the mid 2016 peak.

In 2008 stocks, gold, silver and oil also crashed together which  looks like it could be happening again. I have many of these 4th wave rallies I’m presently working so it’s not just one asset class we are dealing with.

Solar Cycle #24 also made its first peak in 2011 so I know the sun cycles yield massive influence on commadity prices.  Precious metals peaked 3 years after oil, so we may see oil bottom three years before silver as well.

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GLD Gold ETF 2011-2018 Review

I had to try different settings before I could use this chart to count out GLD. GLD tracks the price of gold not gold stock miners.  GLD tracks gold very well, like IAU does, and the trading volume always seems to be there as well.

The 2011 $185 price peak is my Cycle degree wave 3 location. Once I looked at the gold bearish phase from a diagonal wave perspective, things started to fit much better. The big problem is always trying to figure out where we are in this diagonal 5 wave decline. The explosive move from the 2015 bottom, to the 2016 peak, also works better as an inverted  zigzag.

What followed the 2016 peak, was a grinding decline, and in 2017  another gyrating bullish move. happened.  This bullish phase or overlapping wave structures, should be a clue that our present gold rally is struggling. When it struggles like this GLD is traveling against the larger trend.  Any gold chart or ETF gold chart is showing this bullish move, and the majority all think that gold is still going much higher. After all the bullish trend is still in place right?

The one thing that the majority will never figure out, what is a bear market rally and what is a true bull market. Only a very small percentage of traders or analystst know the difference.  I’m not talking about some imaginary conventional description of a 20% decline, as a simple 20% decline has little meaning in the Elliott Wave world.

From an Elliott Wave prespective, any bear market rally is completley retraced. In this case the low was in late 2015, which would have to get completley retraced.  Even if it’s only by a very small percentage. Since the 2011 peak we’ve had about 6-7 bear market rallies and they were “all” retraced, so chances are good that our present rally is also a bear market rally.

The bigger the bear market rally the more bullish investors get drawn into a bull trap, so identifying bear market rallies before the crowd does, is extremely important.

With about 15 of these ETF patterns in play and only “one”  ETF gets completley retraced, then all the others will eventually follow. This may take all summer and well into the fall, but a new record bottom will also produce a very good buying opertunity for the next bullish phase that is sure to come. This will be a Primary degree “B” wave bullish phase,  which will also be a bear market rally, but it will be a much bigger bear market rally by “one” higher degree.  The short description would be that gold can travel 1.618 times higher than the 2016 peak but not exceed any new record highs.  At about $175 we have a tripple top which would also produce an extreme resistance price level.

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June, 2, 2018 SGDM Sprott Gold Miners ETF Review

 

SGDM is a gold miner ETF  that started back in 2014. There is very little history to work with but once we locate the 2016 bottom SGDM fits in with the rest of the ETFs I track.  I counted how many I have, which was about 15. Between all 15 there are differences escpecially during the 2o17 sideways pattern. None of these ETFs have broken down or have completley retrace the bullish cycle that ended on the August 2016 peak. There are at least 2 ETFs where this sideways pattern has developed at much lower prices, and they would be the leaders to watch if and when they cross to all-time new bear market lows.

It would be very rare and next to impossible if 2 or three Gold stock related ETFs and indicies retraced to new record lows while the other 13 did not. If just “one” exceeds a new record low then you can bet all the rest will eventually be very close behind.  The majority don’t even know the diffrenece between a bull market and a big bear market rally.  They might clue in the next time gold stocks take a big hit, but until then gold stock investors remain bullish.

I have many little gold stocks I watch and the majority of them have been imploding as well.  This all adds to my bearish outlook for the rest of 2018. The August 2016 peak was a net $18 USD Intermediate degree move, peaking at just under $30 with about a 250% gain. If you missed that bull market which most of us did, then stick around, becuase another big bullish move will happen. The next time it will be a Primary degree move. Since I’m working mostly Cycle degree zigzags in commodities, this Primary degree ‘B’ wave should not exceed any 2011 peaks.

As we can see this SDGM has not kept up with gold, and even silver has been a real laggard. Many are expecting a miracle when they say that gold stocks will catch-up to gold. This excuse didn’t work at the 2011 peak, and it sure isn’t going to work now.

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CA:HEP Horizons Enhanced Income Gold Producers ETF Review

This is an income fund in Canada started back in 2010. 2011 was my Cycle degree wave 3 peak and what followed was a grinding bear market that looks like an impulse but in reality it is just another diagonal 5 wave sequence. All this may be hard to swallow for those staunch gold stock bulls foaming at the mouth, but I’m not here to make those emotional traders happy, as I will always try to supply an alternate idea about bear market rallies.

I call them fake runs at times, and the biggest and most important thing to know, is that all bear market rallies retrace themselves by 100%.  In mid 2016 I called for a correction in what I though was a bigger bull market still to come. What followed was another grinding sideways movement that seems to be going nowhere. All bullish corrections during that time had failed. When we apply a wedge to this section, HEP is getting bunched up inside the cone, and it must be forced to break-out. Break-out in what direction? Slice the top line first or slice the bottom line first?

Our choice comes down to two basic chart directions, up or down!  This pays a small dividend but I still would not touch this ETF with a 10-foot pole.  I do not give any specific buy or sell calls, as I can only forecast up or down my idealized wave structures. I may still be a bear now but I will turn very bullish when the time comes. There is always a chance that I can be wrong, but then the bull market will have to leave without me, as I refuse to jump into a trade in the fear of missing out. In 2008 most markets crashed together as gold/silver/gold stocks/oil and all the big markets headed south. If it happened once before, it sure can happen again. It would cost you about $2300 to find out!

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SIL Silver Miners ETF Update

All the attention is focused on gold which I think is painting us a very bullish picture which is not confirmed by silver or many other ETFs. SIL launched a wild run that  dipped well into the previous wave two of the “same” degree, which makes the entire decline a diagonal decline. Cycle degree wave 3 has completed at the 2011 peak and this bear market is far from finished.  The trend lines show that we can’t force wave patterns to stay in a channel.

I may be bearish on all this, but I assure you I will turn very bullish when the time comes.  Since that 2016 peak SIL has been in a bearish mood that sure looks like it has more to run.  It may take the rest of the summer to play out,  where it could produce a double bottom set-up. This would be a very bullish set-up that very few will take advantage of. Investors “hate” to buy low but the contrarians love it. Of course all this goes against the bullish mainstream media forecasts, but lately the bearish pressures are still showing up. From my perspecive attention to pattern is far more important than the Fricken barrage of fundamantals that the media uses to brainwash us.   Vertually nobody can tell the difference between a bull market and a big bear market rally, but the EWP is the perfect tool to use for this.  The problem is nobody has an acurate picture of where they are counting from, so wave counters can get caught in the same bull trap as the majority.

Forecasting the same trend as the majority do is not rocket science folks, as it takes much more time and effort to look at all moves from a contrarian perspective.

I called a bullish phase peak in 2016, but the correction sure has not confirm this just yet. The SIL trend is still down as I see it.

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ZGD Another Bull Or Bear?

This is an equal weight gold stock ETF and it shows the same pattern but pointing down, none of this sideways pattern where we can get fooled into thinking a big bull market is just around the corner.We still end up with a sideways pointing wedge and it has been long overdue to break out. Break out in which direction?  This morning gold stocks have already turned down,so I will not be surprise that ZGD will slice through the bottom wedge trend line. ZGD hit a new bear market low in early 2018 which many of the other ETFs did not do.

I’m dealing with many of these 4th wave scenarios  and if I’m right this ETF has much more to fall and will even set new record lows.  Another double bottom could fool us with an early bottom,whichmay take all summer to play out. After all we have to respect summer highs like 2016!

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ZJG Update: Bull Or Bear ?

The debate rages on as gold stock bullish investors are convinced that this sideways wedge is a bullish sign.  The initial start only took about 6 months, but this so called correction has taken about 22 months. I could see it if  these gold stock ETFs only took 8-10 months but 22 months is very suspicious.

ZJG has started to dip again and is getting very close to cutting the bottom wedge line. Investor will see thier accounts get shredded if they believe that they should be buying on the dips. The rich can play that game but a guy like me with a small trading account cannot ride a bearish trip down.

If this bull market is a 4th wave rally then chances are good a new record low will happen. This goes against many bullish scenerios but I refuse to pussy foot around in posting what I see.  This ETF is pointing sideways but other gold stock ETFs are pointing down so we have a real mixed bag with basically the same pattern in 1/2 dozen gold stock related ETFs.

Stocks, bonds and gold have been falling together and the mass media has been quick to point this out. It may take all summer and into the fall for this to become obvious, but it will also represent another great buying opportunity.

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HUI Gold Stock Index Review

Each gold stock related asset class has slightly different wave patterns, but this HUI chart is also forced into a wedge, even though the wedge is a sideways pattern. That actually may be the scariest part of this setup! The HUI has a long way to go to catch up with gold, which as the experts say gold stocks will catch-up to gold in due time. I’ve heard all that before at the 2011 peak and it never worked then and it sure will not work this time.

In order for this HUI index to be in the bullish phase already then that 2013 low,  must “not” get breached by the slimmest of margins, otherwise the HUI bear market is still in progress.  The 150 HUI price level would trash that 2013 low by a wide margin, which would confirm that the bearish phase is still running.  The top trend line is the main trend and the HUI would have to bust out of that range as well. What’s next HUI 150 or HUI 225?

The bottom rising wedge can be used because the HUI is still in a small rally.  It would take very little effort to break that bottom rising wedge, so this HUI needs to send us a clear direction sooner or later. This Micky Mouse move is just not doing it for me.

In 2008 Gold, Gold stocks and all related oil futures crashed right along with the stock market so, saying that it is “Different this time”, may not work as well!

Gold stocks heading north, while oil heads south would force the Gold/HUI ratio to change in a very short time. The Gold/HUI ratio is sitting at 7.24:1 which is about average, but I think it has been hitting a ratio brick wall, since April, 1, 2018.

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GDXJ, Trapped In The Cone!

Every gold stock related ETF or index has a slightly different pattern to it, especially this sideways pattern that GDXJ is trapped in. Some of them are pointing up while others are even pointing down.  GDXJ is trapped in the cone like cattle boxed in a canyon, sooner or later they’ll panic and try to break out.

To which price level is the trapped cattle going to flee to? The price level that has the weakest link in the fence!  I could give the same bullish song and dance as all the gold bulls are telling us which is the easy part. I tried that, but started to realize that GDXJ was having great difficulty in trying to break out.

This forces a review going all the way back to the 2011 peak and initiate another wave count from a diagonal perspective.  That 2016 peak was very impressive as I called for a correction at that time. Corrections have to look like one of my 3 simple patterns, but this pattern doesn’t fit the bill at all when I made this up last night.  Being trapped in this situation can happen when a false start or bear market rally is in progress.  Every bear market rally retraces itself sooner or later, and it’s up to GDXJ to “Do or Die” soon. I will be posting more ETF’s and as far as I see it these wedges are very bearish.

In a diagonal 5 wave decline the 5th wave can always contain a zigzag which can produce violent moves to the downside in a very short period of time. Single stocks are much worse to figure out as they can run against the grain for very long periods of time as well.  “Buying on the dips” is what the bulls are saying, but that suggests that they are convinced they are in a big bull market. Pattern, not price makes a bull or bear market and this sideways pattern sucks because no exciting bottom has even occurred yet. That late 2016 low ($28) would have to be the “bull market” corrective low,  if we are already over on the bullish side. Gold stocks opened up with a small jump this morning, but it has to keep going and bust out of this double cone trap.

The Gold/GDXJ ratio is not at any real extreme, but for the last month it has been hitting the 39:1 range, which also can act as a brick wall when the ratio no longer compresses. There are too many bulls around for too long of a time period, with gold stocks going nowhere. Where are the buyers?, as volume has also been completely subdued!

If we draw a horizontal line at the $50 price level, and follow it all the way back to spring 2013, we can see one lonely little gap had opened, from which GDXJ was repelled.  This still makes the $50 price level a serious resistance threat as well.

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IAU: Gold ETF Review

This IAU ETF seems to be very popular, but this morning the volume is around 500,000 shares traded. I like to look at other gold related charts as little differences can give a certain location hint.  One of the worst to recognize early is the darn expanded wave 3 bottom. Expanded flats are critical to understand as they are fake bull markets and if it is identified correctly, then a new record low is a given. Most gold stocks, ETFs sure don’t look like this as some of them went sideways while others were pointed down.  Analysts have faced this dilemma before as they were all wondering why gold stock ETFs were not catching up to gold.

This is not a gold stock, ETF, as it seems to follow the futures metal very well. I have many of these 3-4-5 wave counts in progress and they must constantly be checked if bull markets don’t behave like they should. This gold rally keeps us blinded by the bullish hype from the mainstream news. When the news drums beat in one direction, I look at the opposite direction long before the herd catches on. This IAU has not broken out of resistance yet, but this morning IAU made a small bullish move.  The herd will not see any potential bearish moves until some key support price levels get retraced.

If you think gold can’t hit another ugly low, then my wave counts will not matter to you at all, but if you’re not sure then welcome to the club!

Sooner or later, this gold ETF will send us a clear picture because it can’t fake a bull market forever. At this time, IAU has not exceeded that mid 2017 peak, which still keeps the zigzag within the “B” wave rules. Since I don’t have US funds to work with, anything I might buy at a major low will be in Canadian funds.

I remain very bearish as many of these commodities could slump together, surprising even the staunches gold bulls.

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ZGD: BMO Equal Weight Global Gold Index ETF

This ZGD is a fairly new addition to Canadian ETFs, which is a bit over 5 years old. The invisible wave count previous to 2013 can be used from any other Canadian ETFs with some differences. It’s an equal weight ETF  and will produce different wave patterns, but in general they will react the same as most other ETFs.  I show Minor and Intermediate degree tops and bottoms with the Minor degree 5th wave being a diagonal. ZGD made its bottom in mid 2015 long before any other gold stock related ETFs did. Again, I could be wrong on this, but I have to call them the way I see it, even if it means missing out on the next leg.

I hate to miss out any any bullish phase, so this is a tough call.

Any price action “after” the 2015 bottom belongs to the bullish side as a potential expanded counter corrective move. The 2016 rally is what I call a “C” wave bullish phase, which peaked suddenly in mid 2016. $14.50 CAD seems to be the peak after which all gold stock related ETFs start a grinding bearish phase, with parts of it fitting into a falling wedge. Falling wedges are very bullish indeed, but any wedge can fool us, especially if it is a fairly small one.

ZGD is now poised to do one of two things, blast up, or keep falling! “It’s now or never”,  as I like to say. All ZGD needs to do is decline just a fraction below the 2015 low, and then this market will have confirmed, that a “complete”retracemet, has taken place.  In short, we may find out the hard way what a fake bull market can do. Way back at the 2013 lows we can see a gentle sloping decline between 4 points. This is a bullish pattern as the markets are starting to bunch up.

I only have one Gold/ZGD ratio from today, and it’s sitting at 146:1. I may get an expensive ratio reading from the Mid 2016 peak, but that still requires more homework.

Chances are good I will update this ZGD more frequently as it deserves far more attention at this critical stage.

With most gold stocks pointing down and gold pointing up, many analysts say that gold stocks will catch up! I don’t believe in this “catch up myth” as they were saying the same thing at the 2011 peak and it didn’t work.

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GDXJ, Gold Stock Bull Trap?

The start of the bull market in early 2016, soared with small subdivisions This bullish phase ended in mid 2016 at about the $50 price level before GDXJ started to turn down again. For just about 2 years, GDXJ has been grinding sideways for far too long in a bullish correction. A horizontal wedge has also formed which compounds and confuses the next potential move. If we look at it from a bearish point of view, then it’s an easy guess, otherwise it can soar out of this wedge just as easily.

Even now the Gold/GDXJ ratio is hitting a break wall with todays reading at 39.8:1 which makes GDXJ a bit more expensive. This ratio should spread, as any decline intensifies. I have 62:1 as my cheap ratio, but we may never hit that again for a very long time.

Most of the gold stock related ETFs also have this sideways wedge,  so it’s not just some isolated pattern.  The well heeled gold stock contrarians who have very deep pockets will just be buying more, but for a new player this decline would hit them hard.

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HUI Gold Stock Correction Review: Will It Ever End?

Since the 2011 peak gold stocks have been grinding downward until early 2016, when suddenly gold stocks exploded and soared until mid 2016. Now the HUI is grinding sideways for over a year, but I think there is at least one more leg up to come. This 2017 sideways action shows up in many of the other gold stocks related ETFs so it’s not an isolated pattern at all.

At this time I’m working gold stocks like a big Primary degree triangle, but that will have to be adjusted if gold stocks don’t break out of their slump that they have been in.   I also looked at the ABX (Barrick) stock, which does not show this pattern, but it showed a very nice zigzag correction already completed.

I just can’t see Barrick’s stock soaring while all others are left behind so for now I will remain bullish until this HUI clears a new record high with a “C” wave bull market. “C” waves can produce some stunning moves.  Barrick also contains a Wedge or inverted Megaphone, which can be powerful signals, before the trend turns again.

We could even be heading to a “D” wave peak, so the bigger gold bullish phase is not over yet,  from my perspective.

The Gold/Hui Ratio is sitting at 7.60:1 which is more expensive than the 3:1 ratio, I have recorded. Cheap is about 10:1 so we’re not that expensive when we use gold as the measuring tool.  In zigzags the “A” wave crashes can be very straight, but then the “C” wave is choppy and travels at a slightly different angle.

In a flat type of a pattern the leading “A” wave can be very choppy, but then the trailing “C” can explode, or implode with a sheer vertical drop, depending on what side of the market we are on.

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PSAU PowerShares Global Gold & Precious Metals ETF

In a search looking for other related gold stock, ETF patterns I found 3,  but I will work with just one of them. PSAU is one of them, which also pays a current dividend yield of 4.65%.   PSAU ETF Guide | Stock Quote, Holdings, Fact Sheet and More

Since early 2016, PSAU bottomed like so many other gold related stock assets did, and then PSAU exploded into the mid 2016 peak after which PSAU went south  developing a bearish phase. The first move up in 2016, ended with a 245% gain, and gathered worldwide attention that a gold bull market has arrived.

It took the majority 6 months or so to figure it out, and as soon as the mass media talking heads were in consensus agreement, the gold stock market turned bearish. Bitcoin was the latest craze, and who needs gold when Bitcoin is as good as gold? Nothing is as good as gold, except “gold”.  Dumping gold for Bitcoins was the battle cry, but then Bitcoin crashed and has yet to break out into new record price territory.

Late last year PSAU seemed to have turned upward again from a base of $18, touching $20 before backing off. Yes, that $18 price level is a line drawn in the sand, because if we are back to the bullish phase, we don’t want to see that $18 price level get trashed for any reason. Even if that $18 price level didn’t hold, this bull market is not over until the majority of my Gold ratios show overbought conditions.

We’ll be starting our third year with this bull market, and it may still take 1-2 years before it’s finished. GDX and GDXJ have similar stock patterns, but PSAU pays out a much higher dividend payment.

My top trend line is based on the two biggest dips connecting the bottom trend line. I always draw these trend lines in parallel fashion, but there is no guarantee that the top trend line will ever get hit. I have to check a few more top and bottom ratios, but I have at least two I can work with. Our present Gold/PSAU ratio is sitting at 66.36:1, and it still has a long way to compress until we get into an expensive 27:1 ratio. PSAU may never reach that extreme, but a ratio of 66:1 seems to be pretty normal right now.

I believe that PSAU can still double up from todays price levels, as “C” wave bull markets can and do produce some amazing or stunning vertical moves.

Short term the gold stocks could still be in a correction mode, but long term I’m still very bullish.

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GDXJ And SIL ETF Reviews

GDXJ is a gold stock related ETF. The great thing about ETFs is that we don’t have to worry about any single company fundamentals. All we need is a very good understanding, where gold stocks are in their bullish or bearish phases. Recently the story was that investors were dumping gold related assets, to jump onto the Bitcoin Mania bandwagon. Of course the Bitcoin bandwagon has now crashed and is burning in a huge electronic fire. No sooner that this bearish news about gold came out, GDXJ stopped falling and has now started to soar again. GDXJ reacting the opposite way of bearish news, is a very bullish sign in itself.

You won’t find those indicators in your trading tool box, but smart contrarians look for those signs all the time. I see this action during many “ABC” corrections.

During last weeks Bitcoins carnage, and a $9000 price crash, gold stocks kept right on trucking along.  I have dropped my degree levels down to Minor degree again, which means a bullish phase is still coming. Any “C” wave bull market, could send this gold stock related ETF to new record highs.

Any bullish phase ends when many bulls are present, like they were back in mid 2016. I called for a correction at that time, which ended up being about 18 months long. Long drawn corrections are necessary to wash out all those emotional investors, that have no clue about longer term cyclical investing. They panic anytime the market goes against them, forcing them out just before the biggest bullish phase starts to move. I can’t  give any specific “buy” or “Sell” instructions, but I can only relay my bullish or bearish mood at any given time.

The Gold/GDXJ ratio is still relatively cheap as it’s at 37.85:1 at the time of this posting.  This has compressed a bit from a recent base of 40:1. My extreme expensive Gold/GDXJ ratio is 10:1, so we have a long way to go, before this gold market becomes expensive again.

 

SIL has a different bearish phase, that other ETFs didn’t have. SIL just finished a bigger and longer correction, but has now synchronized in time with other turnings. From the 2016 bottom SIL produced a stunning move, which can only happen in a very short time span. The SIL bandwagon also had to crash, producing a bearish phase. Bearish moves in a bull market are necessary to get rid of all those freeloaders, that think they can just jump on at anytime they want. Emotional investors will always get burnt when they chase a bull market, or when they try to take their entire positions all at once.

Contrarians do not do any panic buying or selling, as they were buying during the entire 2015 decline, with GTC orders. Everybody hated gold stocks at that time, but look what happened shortly after. The majority always gets in at a top, and in the case of SIL they left a 360% gain on the table. I believe SIL can break to a new record high again, as this second bullish phase starts to kick in.  At a minimum, SIL would have to completely retrace that mid 2016 peak of $54. This is so close to a Fibonacci 55 number, where a 61% (1.618)  move above $55 will get us close to the $89 price range. SIL would end up just below a major double top.

The thing with anything silver related, is that during its entire life, it contained wild and crazy zigzag moves. These zigzags fit best as diagonal waves. A single zigzag bull market fits very well into any diagonal related run.

The recent Gold/Sil ratio is sitting at about 39.66:1 which is still very decent from my perspective. When the Gold/Sil ratio starts getting closer to 20:1, then we may have to look at the bigger bullish phase again.

Due to the fact that commodities are all leveraged, Elliott Waves don’t always act the same. Fear is the main fundamental that drive commodity prices up or down, not supply and demand numbers. Fear of missing out, fear of gluts and fears of shortages, is the real driver of prices. Hope and greed don’t have very much time to set up between mini panic attacks, while in the stock markets, it could take years for hope and greed to set in.

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XAU, PHLX Gold/Silver Index Review

There is also another listing where this XAU symbol will show up, and that is Goldmoney   A Crypto type money, which is actually backed by real things like gold. I use it as a savings account and can send grams of gold to anyone that also has a Goldmoney account. Goldmoney has  been around for a lot longer than any Crypto currency that I know of.

Besides the XAU, I also looked at the Barrick (ABX) bear market, which is very similar to this XAU gold stock index. 2017 looks like it is a setup for a flat in a potential wave 2 correction.  Overall the gold stock bear market, shows a better defined 5 waves down, which I’m using as a Minor degree 5 waves.  A five year bear market with 5 declining waves, has a nice ring to it, but how it fits into the bigger picture, is still not clear enough. I will not produce mindless little numbers and letters, as many wave counts get trashed on a regular basis. Each broken wave count has to give me back some useful information, that I can use to create a better fit. 

I can adjust the degree level at anytime, but what is important to understand is that Gold stocks are still in a bull market, and in the end can also go vertical. A flat inside a potential wave 2 correction, is a powerful combination as they can explode once the “C” wave position has completed.

 Since this bull market and correction, is about 2 years long, I can see that we may have 2 more years for this to play out.  The more violently it moves up and down,  could also shorten this time frame. The overriding factor is that another leg up is still coming, and we should never waste a bull market in commodities.

As we can see, the gold market is very cyclical, and Rick Rule calls it, “The most cyclical market on the planet”.  The real contrarians know all about this cyclicality and have been making money from it since the 1970’s. 

I don’t use any of the external indicators, that the majority are using as the majority can never win at this game, so why use all their tools?

I use contrarian indicators and one of these is the Gold/XAU ratio. The XAU has been pretty low on my radar screen, but at this time we are at a 15.75:1 Gold/XAU ratio.  An expensive ratio is closer to 5.21:1, (Dec, 2010)so there is lots of room for gold stocks to still move up.

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HUI Gold Stock Index Review


At this time I’m trying a different wave count for the 4-5 year, HUI bear market. If I constantly start having to use the smallest degree on my list of 15 degree levels, then I know I may have to increase my degree level by at least one degree. I still have three degree levels left, so there is lots of room to extend with.

What I see in the HUI is a potential running flat. There is some downside wiggling room left, but in the long run this gold stock bull market is not finished. A running flat is extremely bullish and from its base it can soar in a stunning fashion.

At the 2016 bear market low, the majority of analysts were bearish. When the consensus is bearish, and the forecasts for conditions to get worse are constantly hammered home, then ask yourself, “Who is left to get out”?

The reverse happens at any major top. When the consensus of expert analysts, paint us a rosy picture for the future of gold stocks, Ask yourself, again”Who is left to get in and buy”?  At a bull market top, you have analysts shouting to the rest of the world how great the gold stock bull market is going to be. Yet the HUI crashed and burned for close to 5 years.

My saying I like to use is, “market bottoms are the breeding grounds for bull markets, and bull markets are the breeding grounds of bear markets”.

My point is that the resource markets are cyclical and if you ignore this fact, you will miss every bull market that comes along.

Rick Rule – Resources: Bear Markets are the Authors of Bull Markets – YouTube

Rick Rule understands the cycles in the gold markets, and this short 10 minute video is important to watch.

Right now the Gold/HUI ratio sits at 7.10:1 from a base of 10:1. We would have to get closer to 3:1 before it starts to get very expensive.

At this time 2018 sure looks like it could be a banner year for gold related assets.

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HUI, 2000-2017 Gold Stock Review

 

Many of the other gold stocks related ETFs and indices have very different wave counts. Some look more bullish while others look far more bearish. This is what diagonal wave structures can do.  The 2008 crash was not a surprise event as Steven Jon Kaplan had short positions on GDX and I tried shorting GDX as well, but got forced out several times before I gave up.  The 2008 crash showed that gold stocks “AND” the general stock markets can crash together, at least for a short period of time.

The angle of the 2008 crash assured the contrarians that another bullish phase would happen. The HUI took its sweet time about it because it sure looked like another zigzag in a bullish phase. Gold stock insiders were selling again at the 2011 top, while stock market insiders were buying across all indices that I cover. 

Sure enough, by the 2011 top the stock mania was ready to fly as gold stocks imploded in a long 4 year bear market. From the 2011 top which I use as a Cycle degree wave 3 position, the gold stock markets displayed what looks like a set of 5 waves down. Due to the diagonal nature of the decline, there could be a single zigzag during the 2013 sideways correction. 

In early 2016 the HUI hit a bottom with about a 10:1 Gold/Hui ratio from an expensive ratio of 3:1. Today the Gold/Hui ratio is 6.45:1 which is shifting a bit towards the expensive side, but it will take much more than that to kill this gold stock bull market. Not until we see a sustained expensive Gold/Hui ratio and reports of gold stock insiders selling again, will this bullish phase be ready to pop one more time. 

Even now gold stocks are not displaying a great looking potential “C” wave bull market, so we have to expect some wild moves that may surprise us. 

I show three trend lines,  and the peak of the center trend line could be closer to reality than the top trend line is.  Technically speaking, I would love to see that 2016 HUI top,  get completely retraced. It is one of the ways that will help confirm that we are still in a bullish phase correction. 

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End Of The Lithium Mania?

I think the hype about Lithium for electric cars and batteries has been hyped for far too long.  Besides, if Apple takes a big hit, the demand for Lithium could dwindle dramatically. There is no way of being completely sure that the LIT bull market is just a big zigzag, but we sure can see a massive amount of shares being traded. Smart money selling to dumb money, would be my best bet.

We have a sharp spike to the upside which can take a very long time to correct. When markets go vertical it can also mean the end of the bull market. This could take a long time to play out as we would have no real support price level we could count on. The best support would be $23, and that could also just be temporary.

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HUI Gold Stock Review

I looked over the Barron’s gold index before I looked at the HUI. They both do not give me any great clues as to the potential location we may be at. That 2016 low was a major low as all the gold/ratios have confirmed. The 2011 to 2016 gold stock bear market fits into a 5 wave sequence better than any other sequence, so it can put us into a potentially large degree zigzag. It would also mean that no new record high can happen as zigzags cannot go above their starting point, of the correction.

I’m not happy with the HUI pattern between the February 2017 top, to the July 2017 bottom. It does not fit well into a wave 2 correction at this time. Worst case we could be heading up a “C” wave leg, which cannot break out into new record highs. Instead of a 1-2 wave count we could be in an “ABC” count just as easily. Any trend lines that I do have are there to try and box the pattern in, but at times that works about as well as trying to lock a herd of angry cattle, into a corral.

There are at least 3 other gold stock related ETFs with this same type of a pattern. In the long run I’m bullish as any Gold ratios are not anywhere near any extreme at this time. Besides, no gold stock insiders as a group has sold out, besides Steven Jon Kaplan would be one of the first to post this information when it happens. Insiders do not buy their own stocks back on a whim, nor do they ever sell on a whim. They will hold for many years if they have to, and our wave counts should never conflict with this information.

One contrarian indicator I use is the Gold/Hui ratio, which is sitting at 6.23:1 right now. Very cheap was 10:1 with very expensive being closer to 3:1. At present this does not tell us that a sudden HUI crash is going to happen any time soon. Besides, only the late comers that take big positions, will get burned if that were to happen.

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Gold Stocks GDXJ Bull Market Update

Gold stocks with this mid sized gold mining companies have finally started to act in a bullish manner, even though they are lagging gold at this time.

Any lagging on the part of gold stocks is not a concern at this time because the Gold/Gdxj ratio is still on the cheap side at a bit under 40:1. Real cheap was 62:1 one which occurred way back in early 2016. There is lots of room for GDXJ to move to the upside so I don’t think gold stocks are ready to die. We have a higher low as well, which is the conventional description for a bullish phase.  I will not be a happy wave analyst until all gold stocks retrace the entire August 2016 top.  A new record high  would confirm this entire bearish phase.

When and if GDXJ gets closer to a 10:1 ratio then it will be time to look for a major top of this gold stock cycle. This may take until late 2018 to play out, but we have to be aware if this gold bull market will end sooner.  In time I may have to adjust my degree levels up by one degree, but that can always be adjusted at a later date.   It is virtually impossible to tell the difference between a “D” wave bull market and an impulse as both have the same bullish mood associated with them.  The only way we can know the difference is the choppy nature of the bullish run.

Some may be tempted to jump on the gold bandwagon now, but those emotional moves can backfire if gold stocks are ready for a correction. From the 2016 bottom to the mid 2016 top, gold stocks have gained close to 300%,  yet gold investors left that all on the table for the contrarians.  I doubt there is another 300%  gain from todays price, but, stranger things have known to happen.  The bullish move from the early 2016 base was not a vertical move, but “C” waves are  famous for going vertical when the party is ending.

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ZJG Canadian Gold Stock, ETF Review

Many of the gold stocks related ETFs that I write about, do have slightly different wave patterns. Some of the odd patterns break all my bullish outlook, while others look much better.  Since the early August 2016, double top, gold stocks have been grinding out a correction, which may have completed with the December 2016 bottom.  It looks like a potential 1-2 wave count start, but then it starts to fall apart as we start up the anticipated wave 3.

When the start of wave 3 started acting, “funny”, I knew a diagonal wave count would make a better fit. It would still be part of a bigger “C” wave bull market. “C” waves can stay depressed for long periods of time, but then get up and go in a wild move that nobody was expecting.

The US dollar spent over two years around that $79 price level before it turned and soared in a massive move to the upside.

To help confirm that a bigger bullish phase is still alive, two peaks should get retraced. This would be wave 1 in Minute degree at $10.50 and then the big top of $12 should also get retraced.

Higher lows are still being played out so my bet is that gold stocks will see a new record high before it will ever see a new record low!

Any bullish opinion on my part should not be used as a “buy” signal or investment advice, besides investors with low 6 figure trading accounts, are much better served with a newsletter subscription from Steven Jon Kaplan, “The True Contrarian”.  

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HUI Gold Stock Bullish Review

I have to give readers a small warning about the wave count above, as it is a very bearish wave count in the long term, but still very bullish in the short term. All other gold stock ETFs have different wave counts between each other as well, so this creates many different scenarios. 

If this market is a potential zigzag, then the HUI must not travel to new record highs, but must stop short of any August, 2016 peak. This wave count could easily fail by charging through the August peak. I have seen other wave patterns like this, where the market soared. When we look at the Gold/Hui ratio we are not near any potential overbought condition or expensive to gold.

The ratio is 6.52:1, up from the cheap side of about 11:1. It would have to travel towards 3:1 before gold stocks become expensive when compared to gold. We are still a long way away from any extreme Gold/Hui ratio, so this HUI could be sending the wrong signals. 

Even SIL has the same pattern, but with a much longer looking wedge. Unless I hear that Steven Jon Kaplan turns very bearish on gold stocks and sells all his gold stock positions, I will remain bullish. He will not even warn you about selling anything, the orders will go out to his members in email, and they will execute their sell orders at the same time.  

I have a contrarian friend that would also turn very bearish as he has been a True Contrarian subscriber for many years. If the real wave action starts to deviate away from the bigger bearish scenario, then that is a good sign.

As a disclaimer, when I talk about any gold stock wave count, they should not be used as a buying signal or any buying investment advice, as I’m not a registered investment advisor. I consult with people that have the desire to better understand the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) from a long wave perspective.

Some gold related funds like CA: PME, which I have a small position in, is even paying out $5 CAD per month on 200 shares.

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HUI Gold Stock Index Review

Gold stocks have not performed as well as gold itself, but notice that gold stocks never corrected as much as gold did recently.  

The HUI bottomed in early 2016, and then blasted up, in what can be counted as a single wave 1-2 as well. Markets have a tendency to fool as many wave counters as they can and the same wave pattern could turn into a diagonal zigzag 5th wave.  Could a zigzag carry gold stocks to new record highs? They sure can but generally they end up being rather weak overall. 

The Gold/Hui ratio, which the contrarians use will help us decide when the time is near. Bull markets don’t end when they are pointing down, as they always end with a last euphoric move to the upside. Will it be an even zigzag once it becomes more obvious? I doubt it as even zigzags are a rarity and not the norm.  Sometimes they come out even but then the zigzag will alternate, between the A5 and C5 waves.   They will change in physical size as well, which at times is hard to imagine when counting waves. 

In the case of the HUI index, the C5 wave has a much bigger physical wave structure than the A5 wave, so this fits into a bigger zigzag as well. 

With a potential 4th wave bottom in early 2016, it will give the bullish phase lots of room to travel higher, but we also have to be aware that a “D” wave may also still be in effect. Again, we have lots of time for this to happen and my favorite contrarian would have to turn very bearish on gold stocks as well. 

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GDX, Gold Stock, ETF Review

 

I will stay with my Intermediate degree wave count at this time. It will take some time to confirm this wave count, and in the longer run GDX should clear all previous peaks.  The $32 price level will be the main price level to retrace, but GDX should also push much higher than the 2016 highs. Between each gold ETF    there are differences, but in general we should have completed a Minor degree wave 2 bottom. 

My last Gold/Gdx ratio calculation on April, 22,  calculated at 54.34:1. Today it calculated at 53.85:1 which is a bit more expensive.  I see that there is still a long way to go,  before any real extreme becomes clear. In the future we could get a rapid completion of this ratio, which would then flash a warning sign. When we reach the 3d of a 3d wave count, then we are at the midpoint of this 5 wave move, after which only waves 3-4-5 in Minor degree need to be completed. 5th waves have a tendency to extend in commodities, but in no way does that mean it is a fundamentally stronger wave. 

All this could still take the rest of the year to play out, as we progress in the “C” wave bull market. 

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ZJG, Gold Stock Review

This is a Canadian priced ETF that tracks the junior gold companies. Recently in May, we had another bottom, after which we see a small wave heading north. Some key wave counts were broken in the last little while, and what we have now is a potential, “ABC” zigzag crash in Minor degree. That would make a nice setting for a 5 wave run to play out.

There is a big difference in the physical size of these waves compared to the 5 waves that started back in early 2016. This would be alternating patterns between the A5 waves and the C5 waves in a zigzag.   We have very little downside room left before it breaks the “B” wave bottom in Intermediate degree.  If everything holds, then we are looking at a potential “C” wave bull market, which can be very dynamic. It can fool around and produce a short wave 3, but then add on an extended 5th wave.

Any “C” wave bull market is one of the best places to be, but these corrections can keep us fearful, thinking that it is going to plunge much further.  Too many people spend their time in trying to guess how far any asset class can still fall, instead of looking at it, on how high it can go. Yes, we have differences in pattern between all the gold stock ETFs, but none of them show signs of being extremely expensive when we use gold as money. 

ZJG opened a little gap as it started, so there could still be a bit of back filling. 

I think that ZJG can still double from this months low prices, but it sure will not happen overnight, as it may take the rest of the year to unfold.  I don’t have too many Gold/Zjg calculations, but we are sitting at 148:1, which is compressed a bit from 2017 readings.  

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SIL, Silver Stocks, ETF Review

 

From the early 2016 bottom, this silver stock related ETF, soared much higher than several of the gold stock ETFs. This also makes it a prime candidate for an Intermediate degree top in August of 2016.  A few days ago, SIL may have bottomed, and if this is the case, then at a minimum SIL would have to clear my wave 1 in Minor degree. 

We also have the waves of this zigzag alternate very well, as this set of 5 waves has so far made bigger physical waves than the early 2017 SIL bullish phase. 

This makes for good alternation and is a very common wave structure. Now SIL just has to make a bunch of slick moves, to help confirm what we are potentially seeing at this time. 

The Gold/Sil ratio this morning calculated out at just above 35:1.  This is not an extreme expensive ratio, as we would have to get closer to 20:1 when SIL becomes overbought again. I have been buying silver bullion for myself, as it works like a savings account very well. 

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