Vanadium: The metal we can’t do without and don’t produce

Vanadium: The metal we can’t do without and don’t produce

In the last few years, I have been reading as much as I can about Vanadium and what it’s used for.  I do not make calls on when and where one should invest as individuals all have different pain thresholds.

Vanadium is all about solar power storage with what they call “Vanadium Redox Batteries”  that can store most of the solar power created during peak hours,  and then smooth it out for use when the sun is not shinning.

There are many uses for Vanadium and they figure demand will double as battery storage is going to be the rage.  I’m not a lithium fan at all and I have read that adding Vanadium to lithium batteries Supercharges the batteries.

There are no single Vanadium deposits in the world as Vanadium can be found with many other minerals.  I own 3 Vanadium related companies which I will post one of them below.

http://secovametals.com/secova-makes-opportunistic-quebec-vanadium-acquisition/.

This is not a buy recommendation but I like the crash from $19 down to 2 cents. I have about a 4 cent cost per share.

This is what SEK looks like in linear form. Most investors would never buy anything that low, but somebody is buying, as the volume has exploded in 2019.

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GDX 2015-2019: Is It A Bear Or A Bull Market?

After looking at the platinum chart I  to adapt and adjust it for the GDX. This wave count makes the 2015-2016 bottom my Primary degree “A” wave.  Moving the Primary degree back to 2015 is like time traveling into the future.

It’s a mental shift that has to be done every time we move a single wave position around which may not seem important to most, but the difference between Primary degree and Cycle degree could be 100 years difference.

The center line is where GDX bounced around the $21 price level. GDX at $21 found support and resistance about 12 times in the last 4 years and it still may dip below that in the next week or so.

The Gold/GDX ratio also spread a bit more and is now sitting at 61.33:1. This is not as cheap as I would like to see it, but we could be hitting a “Ratio Brick Wall”.

If this bullish scenario is even close then GDX should break well above the $30 price level and on a good day may even head to $34.

Short term for the rest of this month, anything can still happen, so we have to keep an eye on GDX. What we need is the spike to stretch a little longer, which might motivate me to take a long position in GDX.

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Quick HUI Update

Despite the many that are bullish on gold stocks like this HUI index, it has been acting very bearish. There are no fancy bullish wave counts here as I still see this decline having more legs to it.  Since the 2011 peak the bearish line is much longer than any counter rally we’ve had. Who still has the power even today? Gold Bears who else? 🙂

The wedge should tell us more once the bottom bullish trend line gets broken.  Late 2000 was also a major bottom but it was not a 4th wave bottom, so the HUI can stop well short of ever getting there. GDX is also acting like the HUI so the two of them could break to new 2015 record lows.

The Gold/Hui ratio is sitting at 8.11:1 today, with a cheap ratio being below 10:1.

In the end the only thing that matters is that the HUI crashes below 2016 lows and by then others will have joined the bearish party.

I believe that the decline of solar cycle 24 is drawing down gold stock prices as it did in late 2008, so hopefully solar cycle 25 will push gold stock prices back up!  Just like a magnet the solar cycles can attract or repel gold prices and it seems to alternate very well.

1980 and 2011 gold prices repelled from solar cycle peaks. In late 2000 it was the opposite as the gold price was already crushed when solar cycle 23 peaked.

 

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GDX Bearish Update

I do use trend lines but they can be so subjective that it can make them useless to use.  I draw many different trendlines but I do not post most of them.  In the case for GDX, we have a slightly down sloping trend while gold itself had more of an upward trend, since that June 2016 peak.

From the 2018 September bottom, the bullish move can fit well into a triangle, but it can also fit very well as a diagonal 5 wave sequence.  Even W, X, Y, X, Z would work.  In late February we had a peak after which GDX started a decline that can be part of another set of 5 waves in Minute degree.

Another 1-2 wave has to form after which we could see a huge spike to the downside develop. When that happens then a correction could be finishing and we should expect a huge counter-rally.

Gold has gone nowhere but down as the US dollar soared during the night.  With the holidays and a full moon, it could give a small bullish price move, but otherwise, this GDX decline is far from over.

I do have a small GDX short position out which turned green a few days ago.

The Gold/GDX ratio is at 59.13:1 today which is only a bit cheaper than what it’s been most of this year. The more the Gold/GDX ratio spreads the better, as that would make gold stocks seem cheap again.

Stories that China, Russia, and a few other countries are buying gold sure does not confirm the bearish mood gold is in.  They have to buy gold with US dollars as I’m pretty sure they are not going to use other currencies. They are trying to destroy the US dollar which has all been tired before in 2008!

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GDX: September 2018-February 2019 Review

Majority of the time we are confronted with multiple choices in any of the wave counts that we can produce, as all of it depends on where we are counting from.

In the case of GDX, I’m just going to talk about one move from September 2019 to February 2019. I labeled the same move as a Minor degree “A-B” sequence.  A triangle in a “B” wave has a finality to it that forces me to look for and ending at least one degree higher, which would be Intermediate degree.

Just as easily as the wave count can fit a triangle, with just a few changes I can also use it as a diagonal set of 5 waves with an ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4, and ABC5 wave count. That would make GDX a bullish scenario where a correction would happen. The present “D” wave bottom would be the same as the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which would be around the $20 price range.

Of course, there is also the “W, X, Y, X, Z” label I can use which is just a glorified triangle.  The most desperate wave count would be to try and force a pure impulse wave count on GDX. This would give as a potential of at least 4 different wave counts, with 2 of them being very bearish and the other 2 being very bullish.

I would love it if we had another bullish setup as I do trade GDX when I can.  If a correction is due then I would like to see a huge spike to the downside which are a bit softer spikes than what we would get in Gold itself.

Many times GDX runs from month end to month end so maybe by the end of April, we will have a new picture.

The Gold/Gdx ratio is at 58.53:1 which is not all that cheap from an extreme of 84:1.

 

 

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Hui 2000-2019 Review

After a small bullish move, most analysts will give you a continuation of the trend usually when the trend can reverse and head south.  It’s the top trend line that has to be broken by a wide margin and that has not happened yet.

Last week the HUI and gold stocks started to back off right at the trend line which keeps me looking for the bearish wave counts which may take the rest of the year to find out. Hui has been in a bullish phase since September 2018  and it would have to take a complete retracement taking out the 131 price level.  I have a peak in February 2019 (180) as the secondary high is starting to look like a completed wave 2.

The Gold/Hui ratio isn’t all that bad at 7.6:1 but that doesn’t mean it can’t go back to a 10:1 ratio all the same.

 

I added the Barrons Gold Miner Index this time, as it has more history than most all gold related indices or ETFs out today. For a “Choppiest” pattern rating, I would give it an 8-9 rating out of 10.  It wasn’t until I switched over to diagonal wave counting that this pattern made any sense at all.

All commodities have diagonal wave structures as their core pattern which has been going on since the  Little Ice Age, which I use as my Submillennium Elliott Wave 2 bottom.  Elliott wave counting is not what you think we are seeing but its all about how well we understand the idealized wave count that is most important. Looking for that perfect impulse like they show in the books is futile at best and you will never find them. There are two types of diagonal waves and I have posted both as examples.

There is a 30-year cycle to most commodities with a ± 1-year error rate that still boggles my mind. The long term CRB chart shows this very well with gold doing the same thing but following 5 waves in Cycle degree.

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GDX Gold Stock ETF Review

 

This GDX ETF started a bullish phase in 2018 and has carried through to the end of January, so far. If GDX  still heads higher then my diagonal set of 5 waves down will get trashed. GDX just finished a small vertical spike but a small correction below $20 would turn GDX into a diagonal set of 5 waves up. These moves can always be a toss-up between a single zigzag and a potential set of 5 waves. If this so-called bull market is true then GDX must not dip below 2018 lows and must produce a good corrective move instead.

The Gold/GDX ratio this morning is standing at 58.86:1 which is just below my record of 57.3:1 in August of 2018.  The cheap Gold/Gdx ratio was 84:1 which we may not run into until another major bearish phase materializes. Any move above the $25-$26 price range stops the wave count in its tracks and forces another review.

Reports on Fridays can send the markets on a wild reaction and I’m sure gold stock traders will not control their emotions when violent moves starts to come back.  BTW, Monday, February, 4th will have a new moon which can be very bearish for stocks as well.

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GDX ETF Update

GDX is a gold stock related ETF, which has been in a bearish trend since about June/July 2016. The gold experts tell me I’m a dumb ass as they think gold prices are still going to the moon. They could all be right but gold stocks tell us a different story.  Since the June 2016 top, GDX traveled sideways and down while at the same time gold was pointing up. Other gold stock related ETFs are much worse than GDX.  Late summer 2018 is when our recent bull market started and GDX would have to play catch up to come close to what gold performed during the same time period.

Gold stocks have been lagging behind gold, which has been normal at most turnings.  In order for GDX to continue its so-called bullish trend, then that top trend line “Must” get breached by a long shot. The GDX $26 price range would be the minimum that GDX would have to retrace back up to.  If and when GDX moves below that 2016 low, then we know for sure that the entire move was just a big bear market rally.

Any gold stock move that is fear related or safe-haven related never lasts in the long run, because those are all emotional moves.

The Gold/GDX ratio is presently at 61:1, at 84:1 GDX would be pushing the extreme cheap side when compared to the price of gold.

Mark Hulbert also wrote a review showing how bullish gold stock investors have become. 

 

 

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GLD Review

This morning I still have a problem connecting with my futures site. The problem still exists and fixing it may take sometime. I will use more charts from Bigcharts.com as a temporary fix. I also have a serious issue inside my editor which slows down any posting I do. We also have severe wind conditions here today, where the lights start to flicker once in a while. When it rains it pours, as it seems issues come all at once.

Since the 2016 bottom, GLD was in an upward bullish trend  before it turned and then plunged. Since about August 2018, GLD has been in slow and boring bullish phase. This 5 month run sure looks like a set of 5 waves, but we will not find out until an impending correction starts to really show. I can fit the entire move into a triangle which do not develop in any wave 1-2,  but sure can happen in 4th waves. Diagonal waves act like triangles, so they can be confused with a wave 1.  Any wave 2 correction can go very deep and the net move can retrace 60% or more.

Gold or GLD is the only asset class with this upward sloping trend as all other asset classes like gold stocks are not even close to following GLD. Silver is also a prime example of this.

The USD is far from a potential decline even though the commercial hedgers are net long. That might change by Fridays COT report.

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HUI Bull Or Bear?

As much as we would like to see some real action in gold stocks, the HUI has done nothing but slowly grind higher. I keep wave positions on about 13 gold stock related ETFs and indices and I can produce a different wave position for each one.  The HUI bottomed in September of 2018 while I have some that just bottomed last month. There are no consistent bottoms where they all bottomed in September so rally may yet be a fake. I show what could be a wave count if any “A” wave was already completed in 2016.

This is still a bearish wave count I show but there could be only one more leg to the downside and then another fast move up. The trouble with that is if the HUI only went as high as I show, it’s not high enough to be followed by 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.

The wedge has the HUI price cornered into the cone which will force the HUI to show us it’s true colors. Gold itself has a different angle during the last 2-year bearish phase in gold stock related indices and ETFs.

The Gold/HUI ratio sits at 7.9:1 which is a cheap ratio compared to the 10:1 cheap ratio I have recorded. I would like to see the Gold/HUI ratio compress some more as it could hit 10:1 again.

I think the markets may be a bit slow during the holidays, extending the time it takes to play out into the first part of 2019.

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HUI Gold Stock Review

 

 

For all the wild swings the markets have been making, gold stock related ETFs and indices have been acting like they don’t care. Nothing in the last month or so has fired up investors to hit the “BUY” button. What does it take?  The wedge you see will certainly tell us, as the HUI has to “Breakout” or ” Meltdown”. There is no middle ground as the only other option is for gold stocks to keep going sideways. The Gold/HUI ratio was at 8.2:1 this morning which is getting cheap but not an extreme just yet.

 

 

RING is a gold stock ETF and it looks much like the HUI does. Gold itself is fooling us because the same pattern in gold is facing up! The same wedge applies to RING which is trapped in the “Cone” of the wedge.  I have no large database of Gold/Ring ratios but this morning the Gold/Ring Ratio is at 80.9:1. HUI and RING look like twins, but other ETFs are much lower.  Some Canadian ETFs have had new lows a week or so ago. RING had about a 49% drop from its peak, while the HUI had dropped about 52%.

I would love to go long but there are still too many bulls around for my liking. Next time I will post some of the worst gold stock ETFs that are near to hitting new all-time record lows.

 

 

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GDX: It’s Now Or Never!

 

 

Gold stocks made a recent high-speed drop that should be enough if the next bullish phase is supposed to be for real. GDX must not fall below the $17.28 price level as 100 % retracement is just another bear market rally. A bull market is supposed to give as higher and higher lows which have not happened in over 2 years. Every attempt to go higher has refused to materialize.  Since the 2011 peak, all rallies were just mini bear market rallies as each rally has been completely retraced, except for the 2016 peak! The 2016 bottom created a bear trap producing that funny looking 5 wave sequence. The vast majority of these moves are just “A” waves, but in the case of GDX, it’s part of a potential “C” wave.

Gold charged up again today getting close to $1242, while GDX was not impressed that much by gold’s move up. All bear market rallies retrace themselves, so it’s just a matter of time before I throw my hands up and surrender to the gold bulls. Platinum has the exact same pattern as GDX and other ETFs, but there was no support for platinum as it established a new bear market low.

The Gold/Gdx ratio is not that extreme by any stretch of the imagination as 64:1 is not the 84:1 ratio when GDX hit rock bottom in late. I sure would like to see the Gold/Gdx ratio spread much further, indicating that it’s getting cheap again when compared to the gold cash price.

Hopefully, we will know more by the end of this month, as many turnings happen at month end, or the beginning of the month.

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Gold Stocks GDX Update!

 

Gold Going To $3000!

GDX has been on a rally which many think was a major bottom as the above analyst thinks gold is going to $3000 soon. What these crazy forecasts are telling us is that the US dollar has to implode in a major way, before gold ever breaks out again. The 2011 peak was already a gold/silver mania peak which I documented very well. At that 2011 peak, the majority of analysts were all extremely bullish yet gold stocks imploded ignoring all the fundamentals.  Most people couldn’t tell you what caused the decline after 2011, and I bet they still can’t tell you what lifted GDX in early 2016!

Sure GDX formed a bottom and it even has a decent “C” wave decline, but that doesn’t mean that GDX is in a real bull market! In a 4-year + decline,  gold stocks had many rallies and they all resumed their larger bearish trends. It may take the rest of this month, but any new bottom will help make my bearish case. The US dollar is in a bull market that very few understand, as the US dollar bull market represents “deflation” not inflation. Any emotional gold buying moves will never last as they are not based on sentiment, but based on fear!  Gold investors will run like chickens if this bottom does not hold.

The Gold/Gdx ratio is not all that bad at 66.54:1, but this ratio should expand much more before gold stocks become very cheap again.

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XGD S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index Review.

 

This is just an index related to the gold mining industries. What was always odd was that this index never really created the “C” wave as deep as I would expect. Even a running pattern would have a longer “C” than what XGD shows. All the other ETFs sure don’t look like this, as they were all much, much lower.  Back down in late 2013, news that insiders were buying was everywhere, that I was convinced that 2013 was a major bottom. What followed was a rally and then another 3 wave decline to a new record low, which I have as a “B” wave in Minor degree.

After the “B” wave bottom XGD soared and pushed up right into my wave 2 in Intermediate degree. This insane rally was a 4th wave rally, that pointed or confirmed my wave 2 top in 2012. Of course, that would break every impulse rule in the book, but it sure doesn’t break any diagonal rules that I know of.

One expanded pattern at the bottom gives us the big clue that this entire bullish phase is nothing but a big bear market rally!  “ALL” bear market rallies completely retrace themselves back down to and below their point of origin. When it crosses to new lows, even just by pennies, then the bear market rally will get confirmed.

When we get close we, then we can see a huge H&S pattern being formed, and that would be extremely bullish from my perspective.

I have to do more back-checking to establish a few more Gold/XGD ratio extremes. Today the Gold/XGD ratio is sitting at 3.97:1, which means I need 3.97 gold ounces to buy one unit of the XGD index.

Don’t think that this is some freakish anomaly, because they do happen, especially in commodities.

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Quick GDX Update!

 

GDX hit a bottom at $17.28 and is now looking like it is correcting. If this big bullish phase is on, then GDX must head higher, leaving all previous resistance levels in the dust, or should I say, “gold dust”.

There may be a bottom in GDX today, but the rest of the day could still change things.  Above all, we must see bullish sequences with good corrections, as that is the sign of a bullish phase in effect.

The Gold/GDX Ratio is sitting at 64.25:1. This is cheap, but still far away from being extreme of 84:1.

As this GDX bullish phase advances, then this ratio will start to compress. Not until we get to a ridiculous expensive ratio, would GDX be overbought.

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GDX: A Bullish Phase In Progress?

 

 

GDX hasn’t moved that much, but last week many the COT reports I follow had some major shifts which is always a wake-up call that something has changed, That change should be to the bullish side. Even my PUT options watch list saw a major price drop, which would mean there is no longer time for the PUTs to recover and that they will all expire worthless. The addition of a CALL watch list, keeps you feedback in a real time basis, so I see a huge benefit of watching an “Options Pool”. With Options you can always calculate how much will cash will disappear, once the risk to zero is calculated the instant you buy any option.  Last week I reversed my entire account before I got up in the morning as I start late at night putting my orders in. I don’t run to my desk when I get up but coffee comes first!  Adding options to the mix is going to be the norm not the exception.

Many hate options, but there is a crowd that likes them, and I’m one of them. I think professional traders and hedge funds all use options regularly. If you hate options, because they may expire worthless, is more about how we use them. If readers want more options commentary in the mix then please e-mail me and let me know. Locally I look for traders I can meet face to face with. My buddy has taken a full course on options trading, so if I need any questions cleared up then I will will consult to him. After this bullish phase appears and then starts to stall at the $30 price level, we know we have a big H&S to contend with, but think of them now as friendly H&S patterns.

The Gold/GDX ratio has been hitting a price brick wall at over 66:1 which is not extreme, from a 84:1 major low. The same thing that happens on the upside also happens to the downside, when the ratios seem to slow down and then reverse. At least GDX now has the “C” wave second bottom which is very important for a corrective pattern to complete.

 

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ABX: From A Bear To A Bull?

 

 

 

The more I look at this Barrick chart the closer I think it’s at a bottom. I counted the entire 5 wave decline as a near perfect impulse decline while other were far from being nice impulse waves. Moving the big “A” wave to the 2016 bottom sends us on about a 3 year time jump back into history. Jumping back in time also allows us to look forward and find a new location.

Barrick and other gold stock EFTs could soar as another “C” wave bullish phase is near.  I’m no longer and have reversed my positions last Thursday. I do not give any investment advice as if I did, I’m sure you would lose money at it if you jump in with an emotional “All IN”.  I post this stock as I think the decline we have been having is part of a correction and there is a good chance ABX could add a nice set of 5 waves in Minor degree, which are the prized target wave runs everyone should experience once.  I have no clue what the options chain looks like, but If I miss this up I will  try not to miss the ABX decline when it happens.

Once this starts it should take very little to start seeing a bullish pattern to develop. ABX is one of the biggest miners in the world, which is in the GDX ETF as well. So if I have GDX long positions I already would own a small part ABX .

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GDX Potential Bear Trap Review

 

 

In the last few weeks, many of the COT reports I watch, have shifted very quickly ,in gold,  silver, Britsih Pound, US dollar, Canadian Dollar, and a few others as the hedgers or commercials pile on som long positions. XGD, the Canadian Gold stock index has a completely different pattern than most other related ETFs. I have closed off my GDX short positions this morning and have added a small 100 share long position as a test. There could be more downside to go, and I still have some PUTs and Calls out that can add a bit of extra insurance, in both directions.

It would be nice for GDX to stop before a new low gets hit, as these expanded type moves can do that.

I moved the “A” wave in Primary degree to the 2016 bottom, which is also a time leap of about 3 years. Just by changing “one” letter we “time travel” on paper 3 years into the future. The EWP is not about just flipping numbers and letters around like flipping hamburgers on a grill, but the entire wave counting world does exactly that.

The Gold/Gdx ratio is at a bit over 66:1 with about 84:1 being the extreme cheap side in my records. That 66:1 number should expand if GDX keeps dropping for the rest of Sept.

There could also be another mean spike to the downside, which is what usally happens just before it turns.

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XGD, Canadian Gold Stock Index 2011-2018 Review

 

I haven’t looked at this index much before, but it sure has some interesting features not present on all the other gold related ETFs and indices that I cover.  One notable pattern is how high XGD  soared compared to all others, and even hit the middle of my wave 1-2 counter rally. This is as far as I can push any 4th wave rally, which I have run into many times. Elliott wave rules from the book do not work in commodaties, as it is all about connecting zigzags at all the big degree levels as well.

When we look at the late 2013 and 2014 bottom wave, it contains a 3 wave decline, which I think is part of an expanded 4th wave.  XGD should still crash well below the late 2016 bottom as any zigzag in progress is not finished just yet. We need the “C” wave to show itself, and travel to new record lows, to confirm that the 3 year+ bullish phase was just a fake.

Just in case XGD never completley retraces itself, then I already have an alternate ready to go. Once this wave position does fail I think the “A” wave in Primary degree will get moved to the 2013 bottom. 2013 was a very special year and it still is, as we also produced a double bottom in 2015.

I have no real track record on the Gold/XGD ratio but I started one, which worked out to 3.78. It takes 3.78 gold ounces to buy one unit of XGD. That number should get smaller as the cheaper it gets, we need less ounces to buy XGD units.

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HEP, Canadian Gold Producers Income ETF Update.

 

 

HEP is a Canadian ETF that says it is an income fund. I would have to do a lot more work to confirm that, as it doesn’t even have an options chain I can look at. It’s just one of those ETF’s that is only about $4 away from crashing through support. GOEX is another one. Not until all gold stock related ETFs have crashed to new lows that the majority might throw in the white towel!

Nobody has capitulated yet, which I think still needs to happen. It may take until early 2019 to bottom but then gold stocks could rally well into 2020.  This run can move HEP up to the $65 range.

The Gold/Hep ratio sits at 63:1 and that should spread even further as this bearish phase continues. When this hits a real bottom, I may buy some token positions only, as I will work GDX and GDXJ the hardest.

The decline since the 2011 peak has been 5 diagonal waves, which I will not count over and over for readers entertainment. All my work only requires 3 lower degree levels, and Minor degree is my lowest. Minute degree wave counts are only good for day traders or for those that have no clue what the bigger trend actually is.

2011 was a gold/silver 30 year mania peak and it’s correction is far from over. By the end of this year we may be 1/3 of the way through it. Fast violent reversals will happen and if the planning is not fully underway now, you will not be prepared when the first “A” wave in Primary degree arrives.

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SLV: Last Chance!

 

I cannot stress it often enough, how important it is to “not” watch the gold price if you want to figure out where the gold price is going next!  Silver and the gold stock ETFs is where the action is as they are the leaders. Silver only has less than 20 cents to make a complete reversal and soar, or it will be one of the first ETFs to cross to a new bear market record low. 2-3 other ETFs are catching up fast  and we could end up with a small group creating new record lows. There is no way that silver can be in a bull market, and I think it is impossible for gold to remain high while silver crashes.

Once SLV just closes below $13 then that would confirm that silver was in a bear market rally. All the investors are getting fooled by an Intermediate degree bullish phase, so It will be pretty easy to fool the majority again, once SLV ends on a Primary degree “B” wave rally!

There is no bottom in sight just yet, as I look for bear traps to develop all the time. I have to see when the majority get into a bear trap, at the exact same time, that I catch my own bear trap! I can get out of any situation after about 15 minutes of work at night, and by the time I wake up all my orders have been executed.

Silver is far from a major bottom but look to the 2008 crash bottom as major support $8-$10.  Silver has the same sideways pattern like gold, but this triangle is leaning over, which I call a running triangle. I never call them “truncations” as that would suggest an abnormal pattern. There is nothing abnormal about a running triangle.

When the headlines scream about silver not holding the $13 support price, chances are good that a trap is forming.

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Barrick Gold Corp: ABX 2011-2018 Review

 

Does it look like Barrick is in a bull market? That’s what the wavers claim and what gold investors believe. Only the metal gold has had an upward path, while all other gold related assets have been pointing down. The wild bullish phase that started in late 2015 soared well into mid 2016 before ABX started to decline again. Since the 2011 peak ABX has been in a 5 wave diagonal decline, that is very common but they are all connected with zigzags.

I see nothing that will make ABX suddenly switch directions and soar back up to $55. $55 seems to be a very popular number when many stocks and even ETFs turn at. I never ignore a Fibonacci number as markets seem to love the Fibonacci numbers. The $8 and $5 price level would be two targets, that would still have to get hit. We have 4 months where all hell can still break lose, so don’t get to excited about “investing” in ABX. I will never invest again as “when” we invest is the most important thing.

The majority of investors always get into one trap or another, and when they realize this then we could see some capitulation selling. There has been no capitulation since the 2011 peak, and even the 2015 low was rather boring and mundane. A downside break-out would be below the $6 price level with a potential $5 target as well.  We still have downside time to go, but I still would not make a heavy bullish bets. George Soros traded ABX and sold out just before the peak. Investors left a 365% gain on the table which took about 8 months to play out.

When the time comes I may look at some call option positions, but I will not make any large commitment as ETFs are more my thing!  I haven’t tracked any Gold/ABX ratio, but it should not be rocket science that ABX will be oversold below $5. I started trading with options in August 2018 so that is not nearly long enough to say I’m experienced. By the end of 2018 I will be, as all my PUTs will be closed off by then.

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DGL Physical Gold ETF: 2011-2018 Review

 

DGL is another gold tracking ETF which seems to track the cash gold futures charts very well. GLD,GLDM, IAU also track gold future very well, so they make good trading ETFs. If options were involved then this chart would behave much differently. DGL has to drop another $4-$5 before it crashes to new record lows. Any new record low will confirm that gold was just in a bear market rally and gold investors will get punished. 2011 was a 30 year gold and silver mania peak in Cycle degree, and it will not repeat itself until 2041! Once this 2018 hits bottom then we are only 1/3 of the way through gold’s bear market.

From the 2017 bottom to the 2018 top contains a triangle which can develop in diagonal 5th waves. The 5 waves down are diagonal waves and are very common in commodities. 2013 was also a special year as the internet was flooded with insider buying news!  I could have sworn that a major bottom has happened in 2013, but this was not to be. Not until years later, did it make sense as it turned out to be the home for the missing “A” wave location in Minor degree.

If we get massive insider buying news again, will remain to be seen, but it will become public information when they do.

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SLV: Bear Market Update

 

I made this chart last night but it’s still relevant as SLV added more downside with the start of early trading. Any price below $13 for SLV, then the markets will have confirmed that silver was in a bear market rally. SLV was only about $.50 away from breaking to new bear market lows.  It’s impossible for silver to go back into a bear market while gold is still far from doing the same thing.

Being brainwashed by the gold sector happens all the time as it also happens at peaks as well.  SLV and gold stock ETFs are far better early warning ETFs to watch as they act like leading indicators.

The majority will never learn what a bear market rally is, but for those that don’t understand a bear market rally, a bear market rally completley retraces itself back to and below the point of origin. In this case the late 2015 low. I add a little to this downside requirement as charts do show different results most of the time. GOEX is also another ETF that should cross to new lows, so more will be added to the list as September can be very bearish.

My main focus is with GDX and GDXJ as they are also my main trading ETFs at this time.  I have many more ETFs that I track which are also in my “Ratio Pool” and in bear market rallies this “Ratio Pool” hits a price brick wall. I have mentioned this many times when it was happening as I have about 20 ratios in this pool. Ratios can bend stretch to the extremes, but it’s mathamatical connection will never break! Math doesn’t lie, only people do!

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HEP: Gold Stock ETF Update

 

HEP is another ETF that tracks gold stocks and one of the reasons I track it, is that HEP is one of 3 ETFs that are closest to breaking to new record lows. Silver is another one, as it had about a $1.00 to go before it would rack up another new bear market lows.  I keep a ratio count on HEP as well, but need to establish a longer record. What I show is that an expensive Gold/Hep ratio hit about 20:1 with a 2015 low of about 61:1.

Today we have a 58:1 Gold/Hep ratio, which would be extreme when compared to the 61:1 low. There is nothing to stop it from hitting 100:1, so old ratio lows can be broken. Many ratios I keep have improved, in that they are getting cheaper when we use gold as purchasing power.  HEP is in my “Wave Pool” just as it is in my “Ratio Pool”, which are both in-house indicators that I use.

Markets are always bluffing us with a pair of two’s, so my main 8 indicators work like “4 Aces” in my hand, and another 4 up my sleeve, just to keep all bases covered. 🙄  If only one Ace lights up in my hand then this is not enough to take on any opposite bet.  Trading is an infinite game, where there are only dropouts. The only thing we have to beat is our own personal-best trade that we ever had.

Trying to beat the markets is a joke, as they will beat you up first, and then steal your money at the same time.

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GDX 2011-2018: 2018 Gold/Gdx Ratio Update!

 

 

When we are dazzled by the shine of the gold bull, we should be watching all gold shares and silver instead. The gold stocks will give us a bigger clue if we keep checking it up against gold. 30:1 was expensive with 84.67:1 being on the cheap side in late 2015. Today we are at a 63.7:1 Gold/GDX ratio, which is the cheapest GDX has been all year. This is a good thing but GDX, should still get much cheaper. I work about 20 ratios that I call my “Ratio Pool”, which are all in-house generated numbers.  My weekly Market Vane report is outside data, which reports only the percentage of bulls present. This still has some ways to go, as at 35%-40% bulls, still leaves to many bulls around. Low would be below 20% bulls or lower.

The hedge funds, non-commercials and speculators are all the same. The mass media thinks they are the smart money, which actually is the emotional dumb money. We can be gaurenteed that they will always get themselves in one trap or another, as they added more to their short positions in last weeks COT report. The bigger the hedge fund trap becomes, the bigger the ensuing rally will be, as they will be forced to close all their short positions, before they lose too much money. If we are lucky the commercials may even turn a bit net long in the process, which they have not done since the 1999 bottom.

The first leg down could still take all of 2018 to play out, but then it may also take all of 2019 for the counter rally to complete. This would make 2020 and 2021 two very bearish years, if we were to hit a major bottom by about 2021. Nobody is telling you that gold stocks and the general market could all end up getting closer together by the end of this year, as gold and the markets are at Cycle degree wave 3 peaks. This happened on a smaller scale with the 2008 crash, but now the entire world is sitting on some stage of a Death Cross!

Deflation is coming if we like it or not and the declining gold price is the biggest clue that deflation is on it’s way. Gold is already down over $700 since the 2011 mania peak. Every myth that gold investors have invented will not work, as gold will never protect you from deflation. The only way precious metals will protect you from impending inflation is when it is crushed in price, like what gold was in late 1999-2000. Gold assets do swing in both directions, but in the long run they will never hit zero like any crypto or paper based asset can. The gold market has about a 7.8 Trillion US dollar capital base, which is big enough for any trader to make a very good living with.

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SLV Wave Positions: “Garbage In, Garbage Out”

 

“Garbage In, Garbage Out”, is how it works with the EWP. Flipping numbers and letters around like they are hamburgers on a grill, just scrambles more of the garbage coming in, which in turn destroys every wave position we may think we have looking into the future. The majority of wave analysts and gurus focus on the gold price, and what the hedge funds are doing in gold. In most part they ignore silver and even ignore most of the gold stock ETFs as well. SLV follows the silver cash futures very well, so I know there are no options involved inside the SLV,  ETF.

The price support of $13 is the magic number that will confirm that silver was in just another bear market rally! Up top in 2012. we also had a bear market rally, as that entire bullish run was completely retraced. How can gold be in a bull market after SLV drops another $1 and falls below $13?  Market Vane in 2011 registered 96% silver bulls, one of the most extreme readings you will ever get and SLV imploded shortly after!

In 2011 SLV peaked before GLD by many months, so I think this theme will always be present, making Silver a very good leading indicator.  Gold investors think that the 2011 peak was just a peak in an on going bull market correction, but this is a “false assumption”.  2011 was a 30 year commodity mania peak and they do not correct in just 4-5 years. They also never end with a soft bottom like in late 2015. When I apply a 75-150-day MA, then we are sitting on a Death Cross right now! This is the worst bullish position we can find ourselves trapped in.

Those that are wishing and hoping for the return of the big silver bull, will have to wait until 2041 for a Supercycle degree wave III metals mania. At most during our life span, we can be part of two mania peaks and 2011 was my second mania peak.

The wave decline since 2011 has been a classic diagonal set of 5 waves, which I was not sure how to count when it happened. All commodities are about connecting big zigzags together which is why I include the “C” wave peak in Primary degree for 2011. Don’t get me wrong, as all of 2019 could be very bullish for the metals market which I plan to participate, to the fullest extent my real money account will allow!

Late 2011 also saw the first peak in solar cycle #24 much like what happened in 1980! In 1999 this flipped when the price of silver was propelled to the upside. This should happen again when solar cycle #24 ends.  The solar cycles are one of the most powerfull indicators for the starts and endings to bullish and bear cycles. Producing bearish wave counts when solar cycle #25 arrives will kill or trash every bearish wave count we can dream up, which should match my Cycle degree wave 4 bottom as well.

After this time period, there is a good chance that this blog will go “Dark” when “NO” more wave positions will be posted. This may even happen sooner, as in the last 2.4 years, no practicing wave analyst has expressed any real desire to work inside the Cycle degree parameters that I follow. If nobody is willing to devote their life to maintaining Cycle degree wave analysis, then all my work will end up getting buried in history, never to rise again. Modern wave analysts have destroyed the EWP, which all happened after the mania peak in 2000!  In the early days it was one on one, that kept the EWP going, as there was no internet at that time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GDXJ, 2011-2018 Review

 

GDXJ is still on a bit of a rally like gold did today as well. With this chart I use the 50-100-day MA which works as well.  From the top we started with a Death Cross which no sane technical analysts should ignore but investors sure ignore this deadly indicator. Back in late 2017 we had another Death Cross so I remain bearish with my positions. I will not make it public how many positions I have in anything but will give a cash out capital base once all present short positions and PUTS have been closed off.  This could take the rest of 2018 to happen.

I have given my full trading account numbers to my friend so he can witness what I’m doing.

The Gold/GDXJ ratio this morning sits at 42.5:1 which is the cheapest it has been all year!  This is good, but I want this ratio to expand much more by the end of the year. A Gold/GDXJ ratio of 62:1 is very cheap, so we still have some ways to go. All my ratio calculations are in a “Pool” as well, as it is one of 8 core indicators that I use.

Maybe some people find the lack of wave counts unreal. I’m not a day trader or an investor, but more a positional trader, as finding the right position for a reversal requires a far better job at the analytics. I look for 5 wave moves in Minor degree or larger as I sure do not want to miss any 5 wave sequence again.

As far as I can see, my gold related wave positions will “Always” have real money behind them except for the short times that I may be in all cash.

“ALL” those pretty wave counts you see as counted by the majority, have “No” money behind them, as they show me they have nothing else better to do than flip numbers and letters around like they are hamburgers. Betting against all those gold bullish wave counts is a no-brainer for me.

The 2011 peak was a 30 year mania peak, which we will not see happen again until 2041, or at least I won’t see it, as I will be having coffee with RN Elliott by that time!

We get out of the EWP by what we design it for, and if flipping numbers is all you want to do then that is all you will get. I can never make any money based on any popular wave counts out today!

 

 

 

 

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SGDM Bear Market Plunge Update.

This is another gold stock tracking ETF and is acting much the same as all other gold stock ETFs I track.

Gold settles at lowest level in more than 1 ½ years in broad metals-sector rout

I bet this little crash surprised the gold investors as they will get very itchy trigger fingers, if gold stock ETFs don’t start turning around soon. SGDM only has about a $5 window to show us that a bull market is still coming. It’s just not going to happen, as SGDM still has to fall well below $11 US!  SGDM could also fall below $8, so I rule nothing out.

The 2011 peak was a 30 year mania peak in a wave 3 top in Cycle degree. Bubbles of this magnitude do not end well as declining gold and gold stocks is the sign of deflation.

This should all still take 3 years or so to play out and even the next bullish phase I expect will also be a bear market rally. Just in case nobody has told you the description of a bear market rally, then the basic “law” applies as all bear market rallies always retrace everything back down to and below the point of origin. Every wave two rally does the same thing, as an entire decline is made up with mini bear market rallies.

Vertical down moves like this usually dictate a potential bigger counter rally to come, but again time will settle that argument.

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HUI 2011-2018 Bear Market Update!

The 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak that has still to finish the first set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. They are connected with zigzags  like “All” commodities are, with our last “B” wave in Minor degree already completed. The “C” crash bottom will be the last one when it finishes sometime towards the end of 2018!

It also means the angle of the decline will also increase as the HUI still has to fall below the 100 price level, to confirm that our present bullish phase was just a big bear market rally. It was only an Intermediate degree at the 2016 top, so any future “B” wave in Primary degree has to exceed the 2016 peak by a wide margin.

This anticipated “B” wave in Primary degree will be the last and final chance to unload all gold stock and bullion investments. I always work 3 steps ahead of the crowd, which I have been doing for decades already, as it is the quickest way for me to catch mistakes at the earliest time.

Those who are not ready by the end of September will be late, and as it takes major planning to reverse once the bottom is near!  I will use $5000 as my USD model account and have sacrificed about $500 CAD with 10 Puts on GDX (100 shares per PUT) which expire by September 18th. I will take any green offerd to me at that time but the pay back will all be on my CAD side.

This is all good as I also get to build up my CAD side as well as my USD side. As of this morning all my accounts are in the green! Which is a good thing, right?  🙂

 

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