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Category Archives: GOLD&SILVER STOCK ETFS

HUI 2011-2018 Bear Market Update!

The 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak that has still to finish the first set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. They are connected with zigzags  like “All” commodities are, with our last “B” wave in Minor degree already completed. The “C” crash bottom will be the last one when it finishes sometime towards the end of 2018!

It also means the angle of the decline will also increase as the HUI still has to fall below the 100 price level, to confirm that our present bullish phase was just a big bear market rally. It was only an Intermediate degree at the 2016 top, so any future “B” wave in Primary degree has to exceed the 2016 peak by a wide margin.

This anticipated “B” wave in Primary degree will be the last and final chance to unload all gold stock and bullion investments. I always work 3 steps ahead of the crowd, which I have been doing for decades already, as it is the quickest way for me to catch mistakes at the earliest time.

Those who are not ready by the end of September will be late, and as it takes major planning to reverse once the bottom is near!  I will use $5000 as my USD model account and have sacrificed about $500 CAD with 10 Puts on GDX (100 shares per PUT) which expire by September 18th. I will take any green offerd to me at that time but the pay back will all be on my CAD side.

This is all good as I also get to build up my CAD side as well as my USD side. As of this morning all my accounts are in the green! Which is a good thing, right?  🙂

 

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SIL: Bearish Trend Continues!

Now that we can look back to that 2016 peak it would have been a good time to close off any long positions and then revert to a bearish short position.  SIL has to completley retrace itself back down and below the point of origin to confirm that this entire bull market was nothing but a bull trap as new lows are certainly going to happen in the next 3-4 months.  I use a 75-150-day MA on these charts which shows that the 75-day MA is ready to create a Death Cross. I find that any Death Cross of this magnitude is one of the most important technical indicators that I have added this year.

The last Golden Crossing sure never lasted that long which does happen, but I would never knowingly invest at the top of a Death Cross. Death Cross is excatly what it sounds like as your account turns red long before they happen. I may not be able to buy in at the bottom as my main focus will be,  GDX,GDXJ, GLDM. We have lots to choose from, far more than what I will need in the next few years.  SIL should fall well below $13 and $8 would not be an issue. Paying too much attention to gold will always give you the wrong signals as silver and gold stock related ETFs tell us a much different story.

The angle of decline has to turn down sharper, which I’m sure SIL will do, along with all other gold stock related ETFs. Deflation is the name of the game and SIL is demonstrating this perfectly. The bullshit stories of how gold or silver can protect you in a deflation is totally wrong, only when gold or silver prices have been crushed will  gold or silver protect you from any future inflation.

My “A” bottom in Primary degree will be one of the best and last buying positions for the next bullish run that is sure to follow. If you are still sitting on the fence saying, “Well you never know”, it’s just a bad excuse for not even wanting to do the minimum amount of work required to understand trends. Missing a major bearish trend or a major bullish trend is unacceptable from my perspective.

When betting short, our timing must be impeccable or sublime so “maybe” must be turned into 20/20 foresight vision. Any new record low will just be part one ending, as the 2019 counter rally should be the biggest since 2011!

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GDXJ 2011-2018 Review

GDXJ hit its mania top in late 2010 and then proceeded to double top and  implode in a 5 year decline. Since this 2011 peak I had little understanding how a 5 wave diagonal wave structure is supposed to count out. I’m a fast learner as there are two major types of diagonal 5 wave declines, besides all commodities are zigzag bull markets that can span decades. The zigzag “C” wave ending 2010  is close to 41 years in the making. The next 5th wave in Cycle degree will also be another big zigzag, which will not peak until 2041. (Gold SC Wave III) Silver is a prime example of the zigzag world that commodities are “always” in, and using the EWP to count stock market type counting in commodities will not work.

This so called bear market is far from over as the last of the zigzags still has to play out. This could take to the end of November, maybe by the 21st of November 2018. No price support ever lasts and I’m sure this $30 price will not hold. Any bear market rally must always retrace itself back to the point of origin, and lower. If gold stock investors can get fooled by an Intermediate degree bear market rally, then they will certainly get fooled once the Primary degree “B” wave top is completing.

The Gold/Gdxj ratio has also been hitting a price brick wall at 39.27:1, which should increase as GDXJ continues with it’s bearish trend. I also have a small wedge showing which is a very bearish pattern. I don’t have any bearish positions on GDXJ but I do with GDX. I will be tracking about 3-4 ETFs and all the entry sequences I have mention would just be cloned for any other bear or bullish reversal we will run into. All the work I do is also scalable from the smallest home trading base to larger trading firms or partnerships. GDX, GDXJ,  IAU, GLDM I will consider to use for the capital base that I might have by the time this all hits a bottom later this year.

Deflation is the name of the game, not inflation as the world is coming off the biggest inflated asset world ever, and all commodity asset classes will take a big hit. The entire world is sitting on Death Crosses including gold, and if I ignore this simple fact than I would be wiped out like the majority always do. My buddy and I are having another lunch meeting on Wednesday, where we can spend 2 hrs into covering what I see on a one-one basis. I will be throwing PUTs and Calls into the mix but only PUTs at this time.

Since GDXJ will be off the charts we could expect anything between $8 and $13 as a bottom reversal window. I like to use the “window” description as all windows close shut. Your either in the position you want or your out. Betting on the markets to go down must have impeccable timing in order for it to work well. If you only know how to trade the markets in a bullish trend then we are only running at 50% efficiency or worse. The only way to get wave pattern theoretical maximum is by planning all the trades we expect to happen in the next 3 years. Even then, if we can only capture 80% of Wave Theoretical Maximum we would be doing extremely well.

This is not a horse race folks, as trading is an infinate game where we only have dropouts. I’m a gold bear rider or a gold bull rider, and the only thing that matters is that we achieve a new personal best trade. All the markets are always bluffing us with a pair of “twos” compared to my 4 aces that I want in my hand at all times.  Of course an extra 3 aces up my sleeve always helps. 🙄 Only my one on one paid consulting clients get to see my aces and what they mean.

For now I will use a model USD $5000 based trading account as that is the minimum we should start with. Not until the late spring 2019 peak will we know at what numbers we cash out at. Trading is all about taking the minimum risk capital, and then parley that into something we can use as a home based trading accout.

Trading is about avoiding all bear and bull traps, and that information is free on the internet today. The problem is nobody wants to do the work required to detect these traps, as everybody wants a get rich quick answer. My goal is to eventually draw $13,000 CAD per year which would give me a combined income of about $40,000 CAD per year. I assure you, I would be living high on the hog at $40,000 per year!

 

 

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GLDM: New Gold Tracking ETF, First Look!

 

Here we go again as another new ETF tracking the price of gold at about a 10:1 ratio. The volumes are still pretty low, and that is mostly the reason we have so many gaps on this trip down.  Will all these gaps get filled?I’msure they will as I will apply my basic strong indicator that every gap has a 90% chance of getting filled. At this time the tally is 4 open gaps. Even at its worst low GLDM will still be above the $5 fear level when ETFs can execute inverse splits, with a possiable 4:1 reduction in shares.

The is some wicked trend and angle so we may not see a good bearish rally until GLDM hits the bottom trend line. We still have along way to go down, but it should match my gold futures chart very well. Readers are not going to get any wave positions on this chart until my “A” wave in Primary Degree arrives. I have never knowingly chased a bull market nor will I ever try chasing a bear market. There is going to be one of the best buying positions at an “A” wave bottom, so have patience for another 4-5 months.

What could be lining up this year is that the stock markets all crash but bottom along with gold. That would put both the DOW and gold end on an “A” wave in Primary degree.

This will drive investors nuts as by the time they figure out what happened, the markets will slowly start to turn bullish again. Once this first synchronization occurs then the odds become extremely high, for the two to stay synced for the final countdown as well. Both gold and the DJIA will bottom on a Cycle degree wave 4.

Think about GLDM sitting on a Death Cross, while the rest of the investing world is also sitting on Death Crosses. Real estate is going to take the biggest hit in history which will destroy most government and private pension plans or at least give them major valuation declines. Hedge funds will also get hit as they are those emotional speculators I keep talking about.  The majority of all analysts report what the speculators are doing, not what the commercials are doing. That works fine with me as it’s the speculators that “Always” get into one trap or another. When the speculators become very bearish, then I’m very confident that they are trapped, and gold will go the opposite way.

 

 

 

 

 

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GDX Bear Market 2011-2018 Review

 

The 2011 GDX top was a 30 year mania peak  that is far from over in its correction. It could take well into the fall before we would only be a third of the way through.

The entire zigzag in Primary degree may not finish until 2021 or so as this would be close to a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom. That would work out to a 10 year bear market which is a bit shorter than some that took 13 years to complete. This inflated world is going to crash and gold will follow it down as well, reflecting deflation perfectly. Gold will not protect you from inflation unless gold hits a rock bottom below $500. Extreme prices for everything servers no one, as it stiffles all activity over time. Inflation is no longer the threat as deflation will be the core reason why gold and gold stocks are still going to crash.

If your waiting for the US dollar to collapse then you could still be waiting when your 6 feet under. The USD could be on a Supercycle degree bull market that will last longer than our present lifetime or 2041 and beyond. The cause is the great worldwide fertility crash that will intensive after every stock market crash. This happened in 2010 as reports of a fertility crash surfaced.

The Gold/GDX ratio is sitting at 57.3:1 this morning, which is better, but still a far cry from being cheap at 84:1. I also keep an in-house “gold ratio pool” of about 15 items that only my clients get to see and ask questions on. The same thing goes for my “Wave Pool of 50 asset classes” which is all in-house maintained as well. Also a Death Cross Pool would keep track of any Death or Gold Crosses that might be forming. My buddy and I meet about once a month, and I assure you we are in full planning stages, to squeeze the most efficiency out of every major move, for the entire Cycle degree move. We can only squeeze in a few hours but it is the best way to help each other to be very clear in what we have to do, later this year and in late spring of 2019. My wave positions will be continuosly tested with real money from 2018 forward, and the next three years.

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IAUF Another Example Of Gold Crashing

 

http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/ishares-gold-etf-debuts

 

This is only an example of what not to touch as this gold related ETF is actively traded! Well the shares traded this morning was 1 share! Nobody is too impressed with this ETF. Please do not get investing and trading mixed up as I will never give investment advice, but I only consult with clients about the gold cycles and futures charts. This is not a futures chart, and it has built-up no record pattern at this time.  This IAUF has much more to fall and I would not spend even buying a PUT!

We have many choices with gold related ETFs so I will never waste my time with this off-shore Based ETF.

 

 

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GDM: Gold Miner Index Bear Market Review

 

GDM is another gold stock index and I look at it from time to time,  as an alternate source of data besides the HUI.  Gold stocks slumped a bit more this morning, and from my perspective the bearish rally is breaking down. It peaked just about two years ago, and is heading down to a new record low by this fall. Right now the angle looks harmless, but these moves can drop in a vertical move, that can also produce a huge gap.

I can’t give a more simple or direct description in what a bear market rally is, “any bear market rally must retrace all and back to below the point of orgin.”  When I see wave analysts turn a bear market rally into a bull market, then I get choked how much they will cause the unsuspecting investor  to lose money.  This is not the time to invest when gold hit a 30 mania peak in 2011. There is always a time when to invest in gold stocks and another time when to trade them.  Trading started back in 2011 and will continue until the 2021 time period or when solar cycle #25 starts to rise from the northern part of the sun.

The sun can breakup a bearsih mood pretty quick once it gets going.  XAU is also another gold stock related index which I check as well.

 

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GLD: Bear Market Progress Update.

 

Always remember that the Death Cross is alive and real in gold, which GLD represents very well. GLD follows the futures chart very well except GLD has its patterns a bit smoother. I always had gold as a bear market rally, but was not sure of the location or excatly the pattern that we were going to get. One support leg has already been “taken out” while 3 more bull market support price levels will get taken out as well.

The entire bullish gold investors universe rests on one price to hold at $100 while $80 in GLD was always major support from my perspective. This 5th wave has one little special wave in it and that is it has a triangle in the “B” wave position. This little triangle is a clear signal that my wave count has to end on a higher degree, once the 5th wave bottom has clearly formed.  I will not take a position in GLD when the bottom arrives as I will see what IAU does. Most of my attention will be on GDX and gold stock ETFs.

My Cycle degree wave positions will eventually give me enough to create a very good home based income all based on cash flow. Cash is king in my world, so I use my cash base as an escape route if necessary. The only thing I need is to protect my cash, so I can keep betting the way I’m used to doing.

“All” the gold investors think we just finish a gold bull market correction, when in fact the 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak, that will not happen again until 2041! (2011+30) 2041 will be the home of the next SC degree wave 3 peak, but I will never see it happen. It’s the younger generation of wave analysts that might catch it.

The US dollar is in a huge bull market that the gold experts do not understand, if they are expecting the US dollar to crash. Good luck with that as I tried for years to do the same thing and it never worked. At every 30 year gold peak it’s time to sell all excess bullion, as it sure is not the time to “invest” in gold assets.

Any Cycle degree wave 4 has to look much like the crude oil crash has already done, while gold topped 3 years after oil. Oil is giving us a preview in what gold should eventually look like as well.  That was a soft landing in late 2015, and I assure you bear markets do not land softley. They end with a crash!

I’m very bearish on gold and gold stocks and have taken bearish positions in mostly GDX and IAU. Any doubt, then my trading account records will confirm that these positions have been taken. My GDX positions are all traded with real money and “No Stops” of any type.

 

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Silver: Last Chance To Still Be In A Bull Market

 

We are getting very close to another downside move to a point where silver must turn and soar, if it still wants to destroy my bearish wave positions. Silver is $ 2.35 away from breaking all new bull market record lows. So when silver does fall below $13 then it was just in a bear market rally, and the mass of silver bugs were in a bull trap.

From the 2016 August peak and then down to that late 2016 bottom, was a Diagonal set of 5 waves, which the gold wavers called a zigzag correction. It’s just a triangle in a “B” wave, and a running “B” wave to boot.

Here is a COT report on silver  which still has the commercials in a bearish mood, while the small traders and big speculators are bullish.  Commercials are close to the core silver business and have the least amount of risk when they hedge. Speculators are the animals as they go wild chasing anything that moves in any direction. Their not in much of a bull trap right now,  but that can still change in a very short time.

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SLV: 2011 Was A 30 Year, Cycle Degree Wave 3 Silver Mania Top!

I have no doubt I can read my bubble tops in commodities  and the 2011 peak was part of a 30 year cycle from 1980. This cycle has about a plus or minus 1 year cyclical rate, which in my world is far to accurate for me to believe in instantly. I know what this 30 year frequency comes from, as yesterday I researched it some more, and as far as I’m concerned it is imperative that the Cycle degree silver and gold asset trader, must incorporate this 30 year cycle in forecasting in Cycle degree out to 2041, 2071 and 2101.

Remember, all top wavers can’t forecast Cycle degree positions, but since Cycle degree is the lowest in the mathematical sequence we must all follow it. This concept of being first is hard to grasp but it is the core of what the EWP is all about. “AFTER” Cycle degree we get to Supercycle degree, and we can’t break this sequential code ever! Not by a single degree! Just imagine if you are out by a single degree in 2011? Or the 1999 bottom. Every single wave count on this planet today must have a Cycle degree base or they have nothing at all!  You can tell the wavers that have filled out every little wave in minute degree have nothing better to do, and have no risk capital at stake.

This means mathematically, that a Cycle degree world will, if it gains traction, will cut and slice every single wave count on the planet today!  I’m on my third year of working this blog dedicated to Cycle degree analysis. It’s not about me, but it’s all about keeping Cycle degree wave analytics first!  The wave principle is a sequential code and once broken, SC and GSC degree wave counts will infiltrate and infest Cycle degree like rats in a barn. I spent years getting rid of the rat infestation, but this is my third and last time, as there is “No Retreat” from 2018 on into the future. Having the wrong degree and just flipping numbers one degree, can put you out 30 years or more!

I rent, but I have an 80 square foot office space that I call my home based world. Any small space you are cozy in will work. I have worked all the time to build the EWP the way I need to eventually have a good trading account to keep making a living for the rest of my life. Hopefully others see it as well, and when your independent, nobody tells you what to do. You are the boss, and you like working for a good guy right!

Silver and GDX are about the same price range so we can use every thing from the GDX world into this SLV world. After 20 years of reading futures charts I see no reason why SLV cannot be used when buying low. SLV tracks silver very well as GLD and IAU tracks gold. This next bottom in SLV could be below support as it is a previous 4th wave like position.

I want readers to know that I can stop all wave position postings and go dark and still trade this without ever putting a mark on a chart. If you want a detailed wave position it will cost you 10 ounces of pure silver, per hour!  If some rich hedge funds wants to see my gold research then they must deposit $233,000 USD cash in consulting fees  into my USD side trading account, before I even give them the time of day!

You can get a kick out of it, but my father in-law charged $400 per hour consulting fees back in the early 80’s.

I’m convinced that the commodities markets and the stock markets are going to sync up and should crash and rise  together with the “B” wave before they all implode near the 2021 bottom time period. I’m a trader for that very reason as investors lose more money than any trader ever will. We are not afraid to go to “cash” when we need to. In a traders world cash is king!  To be honest I would rather sit around with a bunch of serious trader types than anyone else because we would have alot more fun, once the ice is thawed.

Silver cannot fall below $13 because if it does, then all the bull market rhetoric (BS) will be proven to be one big fat lie!

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GDX Bear Market Impending Crash Review

For the last 2 years and 3 months of publishing Cycle degree wave positions, not a “SINGLE” wave analyst has expressed any desire to want to switch over to Cycle degree wave analysis. So I will give readers fair warning as I may shut down after this 3 year exercise is done sometime around 2021 or the start of solar cycle #25.

I could stop all wave position postings and just put up a blank charts completely cutting off all wave counts and Cycle degree wave counting will come to a screeching halt, get buried in history, never to rise again. This site is not generating any funds to even maintain it, so this goes to show the lack of interest in Cycle degree wave analysis.

Even though it is the most real money tested wave count in history, viewers don’t even have the minimum of $5000 to start with.

 

I will show you my control entry numbers and what could be done if the planning is in full swing already. $100 shares is pretty lame but these are needed to test the waters and to start accumulating for the bottom. I have done this many times before where I push my trade allocation to the max. 500 shares of GDX below the $8 price will give you a good healthy position of $4000, and $1000 cash held back. The biggest fear factor will always come to play when we don’t have enough cash back up at a 4:1 ratio.

At major bottoms I have no problem with that but at major tops I do. This ratio should be reversed at every major top, play down lite is the name of the game and I use the 80/20 principle for that.   I will add a PDF that I use and then can be used to do all your calculations on for any trades you will ever do. I plan on having a $1200 share plan ready but may add more at the last minute.  All my short bets will be closed off as soon as we get to $8 GDX and the the control entry sequence must already be in place.

Once we know that we are averaged in below $8 then each and every trader feels the same thing connected to all that have at least one hundred share long positions.  We may be in the red but as soon as GDX crosses $8 every one around the world will see green at the exact time they were all online at the same time.  When you see “ALL” your lights go green at the same time as mine do, then this gives us a “green rush” that you will always remember for the rest of your life!

Now imagine we are still below $8 just hanging around watching the gold bulls fall from the sky. The minute you cross above $8 your entire position is already green and we just got started. This is not some fantasy I invented but it happens all the time if your right!  With a potential exit target at $55 your 500 share position in at $8, will cash out at $27,500 in March-May or so of 2019!

Now expand this to where a heavy hitter does the same thing but wants more than just wages, he wants a million dollar cash out, move. That involves 20,000 shares, but then must be shared with GDXJ to carry that kind of a load! You would need about a $160,000 trading account to pull that of. My calculations might be $66,000 USD cash out.  In the end going to cash is our home base when things get rough, or we switch direction. Cash is always the escape plan! 🙂  My plan is to get to an $89,000 base as I can draw out some wages with that and still build. Once you have a $233,000 trading account you generate income when you like, as you have room to spare. I have been paying myself already but only in very small $100-$200 draw downs.

I hope you see the importance of calculating out all your potential before, so there is lots of double checking and calculations that we must do. control sequence.rtfd   is a short PDF with just one suggestion of 5 positions for a control entry sequence. I calculate at least 3-4 of these to make sure you know the total capital outlay of any trade you will ever make.  It can be cloned, and scaled up for bigger amounts or companies.

I’m not an investor but a purely independent thinker that needs no outside indicators to make work. I rely on no other “Expert” opinion to survive in a major market crash and bear market of any kind.

 

 

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GDX Crash Bottom Plan [A] Review.

Even when we are still far from the bottom my planning process for the bottom is in full swing  and has been for months already. If you think this is too early then think again, because you are “late” as the control entry sequence should be worked out already, you can not be late to this gold bear riding party or the performance will suffer.

Lets say we are just a few dollars above the $8 market I will close of all my GDX short positions and then put in my control sequence right away. The reason for this is many times ,the last move can be deadly as the bottom falls out with gold stocks. GDX can crash right through the $8 price level right down to $7 in one move that nobody can catch. All your orders must be set before this and then you just wait for the markets to do their thing and all your orders would be picked up instantly when this happens.

As soon as this happens you will be deep in the red and panic will ensue! Oh my god! What have I done” I see “red” and I’m down 50%.  For the very first time it is scary when we see red but it is only a loss when you take the loss. This sea of red might have 5 orders in it and not a single color of green is showing. Frickin scary right? I will tell you in blunt terms that I always see red before I see any green at all.  Your last buy order will give you first clues that a turning is in progress by flickering green here and there. At that point your 50% draw down moves to 48% or 46% and you will slowly see the red numbers get better, at that point the turning may be in place. At about the same time more green lights will show until one day “ALL” lights are green and we have turned the corner. When you see and experience this as it happens,  you get a rush that is hard to explain to anyone. Green is Good!

Also remember that if you started your control entry sequence under $8 then as “soon” as GDX crosses $8, your entire account will be green, and you are just barely out of the $8 gate!  From $8 you should already be in the green on all shares, and it should stay green for the entire run back up to $55 or so.

This is not some tall tail I’m telling you, but it comes from experience as it is my preferred way of entering a major crash bottom. The same thing already is happening with my short bets on GDX  and another drop will send my 500 shares into the green.  I think I may have the chance to look for a 1200 share position as that duplicates my 2008 crash bottom order as well.  I screwed  that up a bit but still came out smelling like a rose with one of my best GDX trades of my life.

We could get the same this time, but we have a much bigger support price than 2008, as in 2008 we had no real bottom.  At $8 this first leg will complete and then we start on another huge counter rally that will “also” be a bear market rally. After the big peak is in, GDX will suffer a bear market that will destroy any smooth talking  gold bull that is in the way, as gold bulls will get shredded again. This time it will be a bigger shredder as the gold bulls will be fat with profits as well. If someone  comes along and tells you that your are breaking the rules when buying low, then tell them, “What fricken rules? There are no rules in a bull and bear fight, in a ring! The only thing that matters is that you find the first golden bull and you ride for a personal best trade. I don’t give investment advise as I’m not an investor but a trader speculating on major turnings.  I only look for the best possible positions in any 5 wave run as that is what creates long or big moves and are a sight to behold.  An investor rarely does this as they never would skew such a trade as it is to risky. I do it all the time to supplement my living as I’m rebuilding my account.

What we all must know before hand, is that if in a panic and you don’t know what to do or are confused, then go to your account at night and put all orders to sell at market and you will jump into cash before you get up in the morning. “GO TO CASH”, if need be as that is the traders safe-haven world! We don’t need fancy footwork in trying to stabilize our portfolios as we have none. In 5 minutes of opening you will be as stable as a rock, and then get ready planning for another turning. Capital preservation is the top priority here, nothing else matters. If ever you were to carry your 100 shares, down, up and then down again. Nobody on this planet has the right to tell you how to trade because if I had a trading house you would be the first to join my club.

This is long and drawn out but I will add some more pages below until we cover the full 3 moves we need to make to ride both ways. By only knowing how to go “long” we are only running at 50% efficiency and that to me is unacceptable to leave 50% of the money on the table.

I will post my control entry sequence later below this page, so we will be prepared as best as we can before this crash hits bottom. (5 orders)

All what I have just explained, I explained to a 28 year male Millennial last night, and he is a young working native kid.  After this I asked him, “does this all make sense to you?

And he said, “Yes”.

When at this low bottom and cries of deflation are rampant, then think about the real fundamentals already in place that will send the gold price soaring again. I will let you figure it out as it is important to only those that are “in”.

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The 10 Ounce Silver Coin, A Beautiful Coin

Border Gold

Ten Ounce silver coin I call the “Silver Stone” in US dollars

 

I have one of these coins which I take with me to some family gatherings and you should see the looks in their faces when they see this coin for the first time. When the price crashes I will by some more and give one to my granddaughter as she was born in 2017.

This coin has a very tough tamper proof seal on it that can take a lot of punishment. Before I went and got this I printed out a price and it was 238.08 CAD. Two hours later I picked up the coin and it fell .08 cents.  After this crash is done and finished gold and silver prices will be very low, but at the very same time they are producing the base that will hold for a very long time looking ahead to the first 2041 year cycle.  I can’t confirm it just yet but I tried to calculate the time period right up to 2101 and found that this 30 year cycle has a 1 to 2 year plus or minus forecasting window which is so close it has made a big impression on me that I can’t ignore. I know the reason for the 30 year cycle, and I will not divulge it freely to people that have no skin in this game.

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HUI Big Picture Update

I firmly believe the entire commodities market is diagonal in nature and its the main reason the markets are so choppy. Diagonals are just big zigzags linked togother over hundreds of years.  This is why the bull market start, is the [C] wave in Primary degree.  The [B] changes it’s role and is now a “Buy”signal.  Our present day market is the first part to a three part Cycle degree correction and we are far from finished. If this present rally is in a bull market it has to soar. It’s not, so I look for a bearish point of veiw right away.   It may take until years end but this market will not hold up and the others will all follow.  A bear market rally always retraces itself ,so any new record low must happen.  We are looking at this HUI chart with the knowledge that that Death Cross is just below weekly gold. How can one justify  keeping clients in gold investments?

You can scream as loud as you want yet they don’t care.  Once this HUI breaks a little more, then you will see the knife falling. Basing your whole life on a number is pretty scary if you ask me.  I have to make a better living for myself and if I was invested I would be wiped out. I bailed out but the knife cut me and it was real blood.

I’ll make it all back on this short trade as I have done that before and may even double my cash out by the end of this year or sooner. I’m loaded for bear and so far so good.

The gold bulls don’t realize it but this type of pattern could produce a gap down very easily. Imagine gold gap down $50, what horror there would be?  As long as gold falls below $1047 I win my 10 ounce silver coin. They are beautiful coins and I nickname it the “Silver Stone”.  There is more to this betting story but I will not divulge it now as the $1047 price has to be breached first.

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GDXJ 2011-2018 Review

I know that there are many other good gold stock related offset trade with and GDXJ shouldn’t be ignored. Just from what I see is that I will try and allot a small bunch of US dollars for this. We have no real track record but as long as we see that Cycle degree top we can track all the rest.  Maintaining and  fine tuning  is a continuous job.

I have gone the full Monty on this so you can see what’s possible with simple lines and observations of gaps. I show the gap where GDXJ came to a screeching halt and reversed dramatically. ($55) Investors take those kinds of hits but traders that were on the ball bailed out.  I had a pot stock that the same basic move and I let it go for as long as I could, I then bailed out. About a $5000 CAD cash haul. I do not care about the percentage bullshit thing that investor do, because I know that a good cash haul will help me push to $21,000.  If I had a bigger account I would hit this with short bets.

Even GDXJ only has one bottom as it needs two folks (A and C). Where is the second bottom?  When you look at this chart and think wow it’s going to the moon, then stop and think about the Death Cross on weekly gold!  The wedge sure tells me the same thing, so I’m very bearish on GDXJ. All the horizontal lines give us the whole Fibonacci numbers which I “Always” use even if I don’t post them.  Since GDXJ stopped close to $55 we know that $89 could be another peak.  It also leaves the last $144 fib number as your last one. $89 would be my first target because it has to go higher than my 4th wave peak in Intermediate degree. $55×1.618=$89  To me a target between $89 and $144 is doable.  A correction at $55 would be something to watch out for when the time comes. In this case never test this until it crashes below new record lows.

I gold bulls are convince a bull market is coming but I just love a good old fashioned gold bull trap! Every complacent gold bull is going to get a rude awaking when this crashes into the fall.  Look at that “B” wave bottom in Primary degree which I kid about being a Grade “A” controlled entry EWP number.  “A”waves in the EWP and this is a big one in Primary degree.  Whats going to happen in the next 3 years is a once in 30 year event that will not repeat itself until 2041 when gold hits $2225.

In general since January 2018 the Gold/GDXJ ratio has barely changed since then. Gold/GDXJ ratio at 38:1 is hitting a brick wall, so that also adds to my bearish out look.

Cheap in the Gold/GDXJ ratio is 62:1 which may not get hit but we want to keep an eye on it on the way down.  Another indicator I have but have not posted, is that the Market Vane reports gold traders at only 50-50 bulls to bears, this is not good as we want this number skewed dramatically.

I know that the USD is on a much bigger bull market than we all are expecting, but I know that it can happen as SC degree US dollar is a real kicker in this gold bearish phase.

When this hits bottom then expect the USD to make a big crash of some type that will push all gold related assets up. It could be one wild ride so any controlled entry sequences must be worked out first. I use about 5 steps and adjust if things move fast.  Most of my trades are done at nigh while markets are closed for early execution. This way you don’t have get out of bed in the morning.

 

 

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GDX Bull Or Bear Market Rally!

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I have been raked over the coals for being so stupid in being bearish on gold investments that it borders on insults. For all you goldbull investors out there you are basing your decicions stricly on price! In this case just a bit above $12 in this GDX chart. If you don’t belive in this trend then all I have to say is test it, test it with 100 shares short GDX and see what happens. If the short postion turns red against you then your bullish stance is correct but if the GDX short positions slowly turns to green them the bearish trend is in place.  I do this all the time as my initil 100 shares is always the first short position. I have seen these setups before and they can make astouding drops in short order .

To be fair I will post my USD short positions just to let readers know that this GDX decline is being tested with real money and using no stops to do it. Yes I said “NO stops” anywhere.  If you use stops that means you have no trust in what your doing. I will not allow myself to be stoped out when I want to be in a position that I have been after.

I’m not an investor I’m a small trader trying to rebuild a trading account in US dollars. You don’t need a billion dollars or even a million dollars. If you build up to a $233,000 trading account that you can flip long or short, you can draw some wages when prudent. Even now I draw a $100 every month or so.

 

I only short 20 sahres the first as I had no US funds to speak of,but I have increased all my short positions to even lot numbers.

Do not look at the red as a loss because if you do then you should not even attempt to do what I normally do. That’s a drawdown red you see, it’s only a loss when you take it.

We are at a historic 30 year cycle peak and this only comes along one in 30 years so this is a time of traders not investors. Investors sit and wait, and wait, and wait, in along position for the one time gold stocks might explode. Sure I tested this to long side in my CAD account and I paid for it, so that is the sign to flip directions.

In gold the Death Cross is just below, the Death Cross in the DOW will get hit so I don’t see it time to invest in gold stocks for any reason.  A good hot wave count  is imperitive, and that we are always ready and that includes you having three control entry sequences ready to go at all times.

I have a Cycle degree wave 4 zigzag bear market with an ABC correction in Primary degree so you need three Primary control entry sequences to make up and you can call them Primary “A” controlled sequence, a Primary “B”controll sequence of the Primary “C” wave entry control system. 3 plans for one degree level and at the smaller scales just you can make one for Intermediate degree. Just perfect it and clone.  In futures nobody invests as they move so extreme that you are forced to become a trader.

There is a time to trade and a time to invest and this not the time to invest.  I must stress that 1919 was the end og a silver bull market and that a horrific bear market ensued  that lasted for 13 years. This is a 92 year cycle to the 2011 peak, which includes three 30 year cycles. 2041 will be the next SC degree wave three peak in gold.

I can only say these 30 year cycles are very regular and I know what the cause is but need to do more work on them.

Just on my trades alone this has been the most tested Elliott Wave pattern in history but much more needs to be tested. We have a perfect time to wave trade in the next three years by only having to swing three times.

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GDX Special

This chart has no wave counts on it just trend lines. Followers know exactly what wave count I’m on. In reality I don’t need to do anymore wave counting until GDX has shown me that a decent recognizable correcttion has taken place.  For the life of me I don’t see it, as any correction always has at least two bottoms not just one bottom.

GDX only has one bottom, so the so called GDX bull market has to see the second low to finish a correction. Eyeballing any chart first is very important.  Technically speaking GDX still needs to have its second bottom make a public appearance which it refuses to do. Even if GDX turned to a new high It would still be a bear market rally so that still makes GDX below $12 a real target.  There is a major conflict between gold bulls and the golden bear because the bearish group needs GDX under $12, the GDX bulls need to go above that $34 price price level. Exact price levels are required when we get to a critical turnings.

What other two technical hints do you see, that will help us and all readers to determine if we are in a true bull market, or if the past has just been a good old fashioned bear market rally. A big Head & Shoulder pattern and a little innocent gap is also there. There is always a 90% chance that any gap will get filled, and in the case of GDX it provided extreme resistance.

I always use two parallel lines to define a trend and its parameters.  I do this first thing  before I put a single wave position on my charts. I also make a  a full 8×10 printout and I can stare at the GDX pattern for weeks if I want.  Notice that our present day GDX has some resistance issues at the $25 price level where it tried 4 times to breakout and never made it. Now think of the 2017 GDX sideways market as a triangle in a “B”wave matching golds triangle “B”. In this case pattern identification is thrown out the window just to promote that GDX is in a bull market.

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GDX 2008-2018 Gold Stock Crash Review

Way back in late 2008 I was a very active ETF trader. We knew a gold stock crash was coming , as the top 2007-2008 was ready to implode. Many contrarians saw the gold stock crash coming as I even tried to short for a trip down. As usual I got scared out of my short positions, just before GDX did crash. I didn’t have to wait long before I started buying GDX as it was crashing.

The most dangourous thing we can do when buying into a Falling Knife situation, is that the emotional trader buys his entire allotment all at once.  Taking on any risk in any direction must be feathered in, with a predetermined Ladder of  GTC orders.  In 2008 I did that but I was doing it in real time as it was crashing. Most of the time I try to put in all my orders at night when the markets are closed. I might put in a ladder of orders that do not get canceled unless it expires or gets filled.  I’m sure there is always a macho buckaroo that jumps in with buying a 1000 shares of GDX all at once. Taking an entire position at once, is breaking the rule of taking on risk slowly. I started buying after $22, down to about $16 by the time it finished. ($19.10 Average) I ended up with $1200 shares and about $22,000 at risk. I loved catching those kinds of crashes as it is the style I feel most comfortable with. I never buy crashing stocks like this as it is better to play the strength of all the gold stocks inside GDX.

I could spend a lot of time on this topic, as it is so critical to enter any trade in a disciplined fashion.  It doesn’t always work that way because when gold investors freak, anything could happen.

At this time it looks like the same type of a setup that happened in early 2008, is now being setup again in 2018. I have decided that once GDX crashes I hope to pickup 100-300 shares at the tip of the Falling Knife.

I have a small short position out on GDX, and as soon as GDX falls bellow $12 I will close them off, and start testing the waters 100 shares at a time. The angle of  the bear market, and then the 2016 wild ride up is more like a bear market rally, as these types of setups can crash in pretty dramatic fashion. I want readers to know I put up real CAD money in trading my waves in any ETF as the purpose for my wave counts is to always find a better fitting wave pattern to trade with. I know the gold bugs don’t see a gold crash coming, but there is no way in fricken hell, that I will carry a bullish position, sitting on top of a Death Cross! Gold traders in chat rooms get real emotional as they are just waiting for the gold $1400 breakout to happen. When they get all giggly and thinking the same, I know the bullish move is coming to an end.

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IAU Impending Crash Review

IAU is a very popular ETF that tracks the price of gold. It acts very close to what I see in the cash futures charts and GLD is basically the same. Since the gold top in 2011, which corresponded with the first peak of solar cycle #24.  When this happens, it also tells me that 2011 was a major peak in gold, and I see it as a Cycle degree wave 3 top.  This top is so isolated that there should be no doubt about which peak is the real one.

All analysts forget this top as they think a new leg up has started. I see it as a bear market rally and an Intermediate degree bear market rally. If gold bulls are this easy to fool and can’t tell when a bear market rally has taken place, then any “B” wave bull market in primary degree will really confuse them.

I have experienced moves like this before where the bottom falls out and IAU implodes.  The rally that started in 2017 was choppy all the way up, as violent moves in both directions were happening. These choppy rallies are a clear sign that IAU has been going against the larger trend. I see it as a triangle inside a “B” wave of a zigzag 5th wave decline. There doesn’t even have to be any clear subdivisions as this is a potential “C” wave crash.

This morning I added a small short position in IAU, as it is a good time to test the next bearish phase. In most cases like this, the bottom trend line will get sliced in two, but it would find major support at the 2008 low. Most investors are never prepared for something like this to happen, but when bullish bets do not do what you expect, then you have to invert your thinking to the bearish side.

A long grinding summer bear market in gold stocks can happen, with a potential bottom in October or November 2018.

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GDX, Gold Stocks: Bull Trap Or Bear Trap?

 

The question is simple and direct. How do you know when some asset class is just in a bear market rally (Bull Trap) or bull market, in which case your in a bear trap. If you have any doubts then you should not be playing this game as commodities have a vicious streak to them that majority of investors ignore or even forget. A bear market rally “ALWAYS”  retraces its entire move from its point of origin, with no exceptions.  I caught the “Falling Knife” in the 2008 crash and it was one of my best trades ever. This can happen again, and the only regret is that I got out to early. At that time I made 4 buys as GDX crashed and I ended up with a $19.10 average with 1200 shares and $22,900 at risk.

I would love to have a big US dollar trading account, as I would definitely do the same thing again, when GDX implodes. Retail investors and the majority of e-wavers don’t have a clue when something is in a bear marekt rally, and therefore they get caught in a crash, when they least expect it.

It’s sad to say but gold bugs are the easiest to fool, and I have no guilt feelings or hang-ups, shorting those that think gold stocks are still going to the moon.  The top bearish trend line should be enough to scare the gold bugs, but it doesn’t fizz on them yet.  A rising wedge is clearly visible, which is one of the most bearish indicators in your chart tool box that you can draw, yet the majority of gold bulls ignore this indicator.

So far the bear market has been mundane, but I for one will expect this market to make very violent swings. If participants are not fully prepared they will miss out on another huge bullish phase that could take GDX back up to my wave 2 bear market rally.

The slope or angle of the entire GDX bear decline broke away from an impulse decline at the top.  An impulse decline would have a far steeper decline angle.  I’m working a diagonal 5 wave decline, and eventually, I will need another 5 to complete a big zigzag in Cycle degree. All, except for a few of my commodities are in Cycle degree zigzag bear markets, and any GDX crash will put us about 1/3 of the way.  As you can see many bottoms occur at the end of a month so October, November would be the best time for this to hit bottom. When this starts to get close to the bottom then you will see prices fall like all leaves falling in an Autumn storm.

We have all sorts of GDX support prices and not one of them will hold in a bearish rally as the big correction is har from over.  Remember, we need a clear “ABC” pattern to finish a bullish correction. If we are lucky we only have an “A” wave, but no “C” wave finish.

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SLV 2011-2018 Bear Market Review.

Silver peaking 2011 along with most all other related ETFs. This 2011 peak barely created a new record high, so couldn’t kep up to gold even though everyone was chearing silver on to do so. Calls of $200 silver were common. Yet what did SLV do, it ignored all the bullish news an then started to decline which now has turned into a long grinding bear market. This isn’t even very long as several in the past have taken 13 years to decline.  With Death Cross counts going up I just don’t see silver going anywhere but down.

The above chart only has a 50 day line, and SLV is having a real problem getting above it. The 50 day average line is hard to push up as it only succeeded several times for a short period of time.  Impulse declines don’t behave in this angle as, 5 wave impulse declines would be much steeper. I’m pretty sure the markets will bring us a much steeper decline in the future.   Everyone may not understand a bear market, but I use a very direct description that has no room for error.

Every bear market rally must retrace the entire bullish move, starting back from its origin.($13) SLV has done this many times in its bigger bearish phase, and I think its going to do it one more time.

I also have made a very important change to the 2011 top where ther now is a Primary Degree “C” wave and then Cycle degree wave 3 as my highest degree.

By no means does it change any present day wave count, but it sure will impact wave 5 in Cycle degree. Until then we are going to get some wild reversals and if  traders are not on the ball or be prepared far in advance, they will certainly miss any bull party that will happen.

From where SLV might land at, I would expect about a 70-80% counter rally.  Of Course the majority will never get that because they will get freaked out on the dips.  In Order to get that you have to get good at catching a falling knife!  This phrase is meant to scare you away from ever trying it so very few today practice buying low.

When I read that staement, Catching a Falling Knife”, I ask, “Who in fricken hell is dropping the knife?  🙄 The person that has dropped the knife is the emotional investor freaking out  as he can no longer afford to hold his position. Or it’s the short artist that’s dropping the knife. I presently have small short positions out on gold/oil related assets, so I would also be a knife dropper.

Only fear will keep many traders away as you have to be prepared for asset values to fall like leaves of a tree in the autumn. You might think thats stupid, but thats exactly how it was during the 2008 gold stock crash.

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HUI 2000-2011: Another “C” Wave Bull Market?

 

This wave count is different than anything I have publish as I changed the 1980 peak and the 2000 bottom in the HUI is a Primary Degree “B” wave bottom. Before readers freak out and think this can’t happen, then you don’t know the diagonal wave structure. The entire commodity Submillennium wave 5 sequence is diagonal based. Evidence of that fact also shows up in the pre 1920’s of the DJIA as for 300 years or more the entire world was based on commodities, with coal being the main low cost energy source that built all early England and America. Of course the rest of the world also benifited. The Roaring  20s is when the stock markets invented other financial instruments to invest in, after which the DJIA no longer acted like a commodity.

I though long and hard already about the “C” wave bull market, and I’m very confident it will not do any damage to my present Cycle degree wave four bear market.

What it can change is wave 5 in Cycle degree as it may also be another huge zigzag bull market. The entire world of wave analysts are stuck in impulse mode, as they count everything that goes up as an impulse. Trying to force 5 waves into a bull market like all the experts do, goes against my grain of not forcing wave counts.

I will slowly switch all my gold and silver ETFs to a Primary degree “C” wave peak for 2011. If we do some quick math then this Primary degree zigzag was 31 years long.  I already made up a gold wave count containing a zigzag in Primary degree but I will not post it for a little while longer.  All my work is between Cycle degree wave positions, which is a minimum of two degrees lower than the rest of the waver herd in the rest of the world. Cycle degree comes before any SC degree can happen, so if I’m wrong I will be the first to know about it as well.

I also calculated another Gold/Hui ratio today, which was about 7.3:1. This is only a little cheaper than the April, 1, 2018 ratio of 7.05:1.  A cheap Gold/Hui ratio would be around 10:1.

 

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SIL 2011-2018 Review: Bullish Or Bearish?

The majority are focusing their attention on gold or GLD. SIL is the ETF for silver miners.  From the 2011 peak SIL transformed into a bearish phase that very few people expected. In 2011 extreme silver optimisium forecast for a $200 silver price and all the analysts agreeded that much higher silver prices were still to come. This SIL market made liars out of all the experts as it didn’t care about any bullish analysts opinions.

Right from the 2011 top, wave structures did not fit well into any pure declining impulse pattern. At that time I was not very confident in counting down diagaonal wave structures. Also the 2011 peak was about as clear as Mississippi mud at that time as I was still counting everything in GSC and SC degree. Virtually every counter rally we see the media also turned bullish, yet it didn’t last and then it resumed its larger trend. Diagonals are counted just like the book says in the description for ending diagoanls, when room allows.

Of course the 2016 bullish phase changed all that. Or did it? SIL exploded and soared close to $55 and peaked in early August 2016. This fantastic bullish run came well within my wave 2, which is an instant confirmation that we are dealing with diagoanl wave structures.  All this matters little if we are not firm in the understanding what the wave position the 2011 peak really is. If we believe that 2011 is a Cycle degree wave three peak, then it is much easier to know what we’re supposed to look for. Since we are working 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, then we know that a Cycle degree zigzag will eventually have to form.

There is no way that the 2016 peak was a pure impulse, and even if it was, the correction to it would be far from over. During the bearish phase SIL has made two lower lows, while gold stock ETFs have only made one. Most analysts ignore all that but when you are counting out waves we have to look for these small differences all the time.

It’s a good time to run a couple of parallel trend lines and they point to a possible down side price target. If SIL so much as spikes a penny lower, than the 2016 low, then the entire  bull market will be confirmed as being nothing but a bear market rally. I call them fake bull markets as well. It’s the job of the markets to fool as many participants and observers as it can, with SIL doing a fantastic job. SIL also rolled around the $55, and $34 price levels which are Fibonacci numbers. The next Fibonacci numbers lower would be $21 and $13, with the $14.50 price level as being the record low to beat. Each single Fibonacci number is a 61% crash, so any expected decline still to come sure can chop our trading accounts down to size.

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TGOD And TGOD.WT Bearish Move Review

When an asset class goes vertical like TGOD has done after its IPO, then the people that were in the original IPO would be very rich! There is one big trick to all this as all investors have not made a single dime, until they have sold out. There were well over 2 million shares traded today and I bet many of the IPO investors are dumping to lock in their profits. The worst thing we can do is chase this bull market, but to wait until a good correction is visable.

I try to avoid single stock commentary but I can’t help it.  🙂 I show a “B” wave top in Minor degree as it syncronized well wth the peak in HMMJ.  TGOD could crash so deep that it will shock most participating speculators.  TGOD could retrace its entire IPO move if we are close to matching the HMMJ ETF pattern. No Price support is going to help us here if a 100% retracement is going to happen.

This is the warrant chart  for TGOD and the “B”wave top is just s reference point to the HMMJ pattern. TGOD.WT could fall well below $1.00 before it could be ready to bottom.

I’m sure TGOD is not inside the HMMF ETF, but it can still act much like HMMJ. Only time will tell, as to how well they will syncronize with each other. As far as I can tell from the HMMJ ETF is that we are correcting, but not finished at this point. Once I see a sufficient correction has taken place then a full set of 5 waves up should follow.  (5 waves in Minor degree)  Any trader should not miss 5 waves up in Minor degree, as that is the most exciting thing you can ever experience.

We are going to get swamped with good buying opertunities, but there are only a few that know how to catch a, “falling knife”, in a  “C” wave crash!

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GDXJ Gold Stock 2011-2018 Review

 

It took me a long time to count out the GDXJ bear market, but only until I concentrated on diagonal wave structures did it start to make sense.  I thought we would get a zigzag bull market but that has no materilzed by any streach of the imagination.  The fast 2016 move up  has been followed by a bearish phase that looks nothing like a correction that has finished.  Many of the Gold stock ETFs I track had new record lows in early 2018. This is well over a year where gold stocks are out of sync with each other.

In the 2008 gold stock crash, they were not this far out of sync as they are now. Even though gold has shot up a bit in the last few days, these ETFs have been rather subdude.

The big question is if the 2016 rally, is not just another bear market rally!  Gold analysts have been very bullish but yet gold stocks seemed to be ignoring the bullish rhetoric.

One undeniable fact is that all bear market rallies get completley retraced, and about the only way we can confirm this is when it happens. Support means little as it’s always a question, “Support for what?” Support for the next leg up, or just temporay support before the next trip down?

The straight move up from the 2016 bottom is typical for a bear market rally so until this proves out I will remain bearish on gold stock ETFs.  I own one gold stock and a gold stock fund that pays some dividends which I will keep, otherwise I have been short several CAD gold stock ETFs and have no plans on closing them off.

From what I see may happen, is once this new low materilizes then we will be swamped with good buying opportunities, so those that have a bit of cash might be lucky enought to take advantage of it. I think we should end on a Primary degree “A” wave, which should be followed by another huge bullish move in 2019.

What this gold stock rally has done, is get more people excited and involved so when the next bullish phase comes along these added investors will push the markets much further north than anticipated.

The Gold/Gdxj ratio is sitting at 39.36:1 which has been about the same for most of April and May 2018. I would rather see it get closer to 49:1 before GDXJ may look cheap again.

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SLV, Silver ETF 2011-2018 Review

SLV is the ETF that tracks silver. This chart shows that SLV peaked in 2011 after which SLV turned into a bearish phase, that looks like it ended in late 2015.  Since the 2015 bottom  many assume that the metals bear market is over and many have turned bullish.  Any metals wave counts must always start with the 2011 peak which I think is the location for Cycle degree wave 3.  Any wave count must start from a specific location and in this case SLV matches all the gold and silver peaks w’vehad so far.

Is a 4+ year bearish phase long enough to call the SLV bear market completed?  Not for a Cycle degree correction it’s not, as we had several bear markets lasting 13 years.  It might work for an Intermedeate or even a Primary degree bear market, but for a Cycle degree bear market it is far from over.

The majority assume anything that goes up is in a bull market, as they know little about how big bear market rallies can acually get. Every bear market rally must get completley retraced, even if it is by a very small amount.  All commodaties have a very high degree of diagonal wave structures in them as the entire Submillennium degree 5 wave sequnce is also a diagonal.

In diagonal waves there are many connecting zigzags and from what I have seen all of my Cycle degree 4th wave bear markets are turning out to be Cycle degree zigzags.  We have a few that are triangles, which are also zigzags.

SLV has been running across the top trend line, and if this bullish sceneriois true then SLV  should blow past this top trend line. This must happen soon as it’s not normal for a summer bull market to give us another major leg up.   Any dip towards my center trend line would work and SLV may never hit the bottom trend line on this trip.  All SLV needs to do is fall a few pennies below the 2015 low and this so called bull market will turn out to be a fake.  (Bear Market Rally)

Until this plays out I will remain bearish, but I’m sure another very bullish leg will come. It to will be a fake but this time it will be a Primary degree bear market rally.  Since our present rally was an Intermedeate degree rally, then chances are good that SLV will travel about 61% higher than the mid 2016 peak.

In 2008 stocks, gold, silver and oil also crashed together which  looks like it could be happening again. I have many of these 4th wave rallies I’m presently working so it’s not just one asset class we are dealing with.

Solar Cycle #24 also made its first peak in 2011 so I know the sun cycles yield massive influence on commadity prices.  Precious metals peaked 3 years after oil, so we may see oil bottom three years before silver as well.

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GLD Gold ETF 2011-2018 Review

I had to try different settings before I could use this chart to count out GLD. GLD tracks the price of gold not gold stock miners.  GLD tracks gold very well, like IAU does, and the trading volume always seems to be there as well.

The 2011 $185 price peak is my Cycle degree wave 3 location. Once I looked at the gold bearish phase from a diagonal wave perspective, things started to fit much better. The big problem is always trying to figure out where we are in this diagonal 5 wave decline. The explosive move from the 2015 bottom, to the 2016 peak, also works better as an inverted  zigzag.

What followed the 2016 peak, was a grinding decline, and in 2017  another gyrating bullish move. happened.  This bullish phase or overlapping wave structures, should be a clue that our present gold rally is struggling. When it struggles like this GLD is traveling against the larger trend.  Any gold chart or ETF gold chart is showing this bullish move, and the majority all think that gold is still going much higher. After all the bullish trend is still in place right?

The one thing that the majority will never figure out, what is a bear market rally and what is a true bull market. Only a very small percentage of traders or analystst know the difference.  I’m not talking about some imaginary conventional description of a 20% decline, as a simple 20% decline has little meaning in the Elliott Wave world.

From an Elliott Wave prespective, any bear market rally is completley retraced. In this case the low was in late 2015, which would have to get completley retraced.  Even if it’s only by a very small percentage. Since the 2011 peak we’ve had about 6-7 bear market rallies and they were “all” retraced, so chances are good that our present rally is also a bear market rally.

The bigger the bear market rally the more bullish investors get drawn into a bull trap, so identifying bear market rallies before the crowd does, is extremely important.

With about 15 of these ETF patterns in play and only “one”  ETF gets completley retraced, then all the others will eventually follow. This may take all summer and well into the fall, but a new record bottom will also produce a very good buying opertunity for the next bullish phase that is sure to come. This will be a Primary degree “B” wave bullish phase,  which will also be a bear market rally, but it will be a much bigger bear market rally by “one” higher degree.  The short description would be that gold can travel 1.618 times higher than the 2016 peak but not exceed any new record highs.  At about $175 we have a tripple top which would also produce an extreme resistance price level.

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June, 2, 2018 SGDM Sprott Gold Miners ETF Review

 

SGDM is a gold miner ETF  that started back in 2014. There is very little history to work with but once we locate the 2016 bottom SGDM fits in with the rest of the ETFs I track.  I counted how many I have, which was about 15. Between all 15 there are differences escpecially during the 2o17 sideways pattern. None of these ETFs have broken down or have completley retrace the bullish cycle that ended on the August 2016 peak. There are at least 2 ETFs where this sideways pattern has developed at much lower prices, and they would be the leaders to watch if and when they cross to all-time new bear market lows.

It would be very rare and next to impossible if 2 or three Gold stock related ETFs and indicies retraced to new record lows while the other 13 did not. If just “one” exceeds a new record low then you can bet all the rest will eventually be very close behind.  The majority don’t even know the diffrenece between a bull market and a big bear market rally.  They might clue in the next time gold stocks take a big hit, but until then gold stock investors remain bullish.

I have many little gold stocks I watch and the majority of them have been imploding as well.  This all adds to my bearish outlook for the rest of 2018. The August 2016 peak was a net $18 USD Intermediate degree move, peaking at just under $30 with about a 250% gain. If you missed that bull market which most of us did, then stick around, becuase another big bullish move will happen. The next time it will be a Primary degree move. Since I’m working mostly Cycle degree zigzags in commodities, this Primary degree ‘B’ wave should not exceed any 2011 peaks.

As we can see this SDGM has not kept up with gold, and even silver has been a real laggard. Many are expecting a miracle when they say that gold stocks will catch-up to gold. This excuse didn’t work at the 2011 peak, and it sure isn’t going to work now.

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CA:HEP Horizons Enhanced Income Gold Producers ETF Review

This is an income fund in Canada started back in 2010. 2011 was my Cycle degree wave 3 peak and what followed was a grinding bear market that looks like an impulse but in reality it is just another diagonal 5 wave sequence. All this may be hard to swallow for those staunch gold stock bulls foaming at the mouth, but I’m not here to make those emotional traders happy, as I will always try to supply an alternate idea about bear market rallies.

I call them fake runs at times, and the biggest and most important thing to know, is that all bear market rallies retrace themselves by 100%.  In mid 2016 I called for a correction in what I though was a bigger bull market still to come. What followed was another grinding sideways movement that seems to be going nowhere. All bullish corrections during that time had failed. When we apply a wedge to this section, HEP is getting bunched up inside the cone, and it must be forced to break-out. Break-out in what direction? Slice the top line first or slice the bottom line first?

Our choice comes down to two basic chart directions, up or down!  This pays a small dividend but I still would not touch this ETF with a 10-foot pole.  I do not give any specific buy or sell calls, as I can only forecast up or down my idealized wave structures. I may still be a bear now but I will turn very bullish when the time comes. There is always a chance that I can be wrong, but then the bull market will have to leave without me, as I refuse to jump into a trade in the fear of missing out. In 2008 most markets crashed together as gold/silver/gold stocks/oil and all the big markets headed south. If it happened once before, it sure can happen again. It would cost you about $2300 to find out!

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SIL Silver Miners ETF Update

All the attention is focused on gold which I think is painting us a very bullish picture which is not confirmed by silver or many other ETFs. SIL launched a wild run that  dipped well into the previous wave two of the “same” degree, which makes the entire decline a diagonal decline. Cycle degree wave 3 has completed at the 2011 peak and this bear market is far from finished.  The trend lines show that we can’t force wave patterns to stay in a channel.

I may be bearish on all this, but I assure you I will turn very bullish when the time comes.  Since that 2016 peak SIL has been in a bearish mood that sure looks like it has more to run.  It may take the rest of the summer to play out,  where it could produce a double bottom set-up. This would be a very bullish set-up that very few will take advantage of. Investors “hate” to buy low but the contrarians love it. Of course all this goes against the bullish mainstream media forecasts, but lately the bearish pressures are still showing up. From my perspecive attention to pattern is far more important than the Fricken barrage of fundamantals that the media uses to brainwash us.   Vertually nobody can tell the difference between a bull market and a big bear market rally, but the EWP is the perfect tool to use for this.  The problem is nobody has an acurate picture of where they are counting from, so wave counters can get caught in the same bull trap as the majority.

Forecasting the same trend as the majority do is not rocket science folks, as it takes much more time and effort to look at all moves from a contrarian perspective.

I called a bullish phase peak in 2016, but the correction sure has not confirm this just yet. The SIL trend is still down as I see it.

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