This is the June contract month and from the recent late 2018 bottom, crude oil looks like it wants to soar. This may happen in the short term but the commercial trader’s positions do not support a major bull market to continue in oil. If the COT report showed that commercials are adding many long positions, then I would think otherwise.
World growth is slowing down and the oil trade wars are not going away as well. Crude oil has been in a bear market since July 2008. Oil has tried to break out two major times and each time it failed to get its mojo back. The big question is if the 2016 low was the real bull market low, or will oil crash to new record lows again. A complete retracement would sure confirm that our recent bearish rally has the oil bulls in a bull trap.
This could take the rest of the year to play out so don’t expect anything to happen just yet.
The Gold/Oil ratio became a bit more expensive in the last few weeks or so as it was 22.8:1 today as I post. Now if this same ratio were heading to 30:1 or more then chances are good I would be very bullish on crude oil.
Switching oil to a Cycle degree triangle may only last until the digital paint has dried. March is also a good month for reversals so we just have to have the patience, to see if the oil bear is going to attack again.