Crude Oil Daily Chart Update

My intent was to eliminate all other months and stay with the December contracts for the rest of the year. This is still the November month as it slipped past me.

The recent rally still looks corrective so $50 is still on the table from my perspective, or let’s say it’s still on my wish list.

I refuse to spend my time regurgitating all the fundamental analysis out there as they change with the wind. Since 2019 there were about 6 swings in different directions in oil and I bet very few readers remember what fundamental news events happened for each one.

The short version is that when analysts hype a certain direction it gets up and goes the opposite direction.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 27:1 and it might compress a bit more in the next few weeks, and it takes the Gold/Oil ratio 35-40:1 before oil becomes cheap again.

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Daily Chart Crude Oil Crash Review

So far oil has performed as I had hoped, with a spike being formed today.  It’s not a long spike as I would like to see oil hit $50 and the analysts making very bearish forecasts.

Analysts are giving mixed signals which usually can send oil soaring once more. I have made a one-degree change which brings the entire bullish cycle that started in 2016 closer to another “A” wave in Primary degree.

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Crude Oil Daily Chart Update

This is the December contract with moving averages showing. The golden cross didn’t last too long and we are still in the spell of a death cross. We could dip into another death cross so that makes it a pretty bearish scenario at this time.

The spike at my “B” wave top was a small double top which should hold until oil visits $50 again.  A flat inside a “B” wave could send oil to a screeching stop at $50, joining the other two obvious spikes.

We are looking at a Gold/Oil Ratio of 26.85 which is not all that bad, but this ratio should spread in the next few months if this bearish trend continues.

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Crude Oil 1999-2019 Review

I constantly review the bigger picture, as I see it everything related to commodities are diagonal wave structures. The 1990s was a correction with a triangle in the “B” wave of Intermediate degree ending in 1999.

Then in the middle of a worldwide oil glut crude oil started to soar until peak oil ended in 2008. Most of all wave analysts count 1999-2008 as a set of 5 waves in Primary degree, yet I count 7 waves.  Forcing 5 waves when there are only 7 waves is what I try and avoid.

During the 2008 peak, the Gold/Oil Ratio hit 9:1 when crude oil started to crash. Many smart contrarians knew that oil was going to crash, just because of the ratio was at an extreme.

I called the crash as well except my wave degree levels were off by a long shot.  From 2008 to the 2016 bottom looks like a perfect Primary degree zigzag has completed, which also ended with a potential 4th wave in Cycle degree.

Another zigzag in Primary degree could be one of the options that will end with Cycle degree wave 5. Wave 1 in Intermediate degree may already be completed but in the short term, oil can be fooling us as wave 2 might not be finished just yet.

The drone attack produced a crazy move to $63, a few dollars shy of what I thought it would do, but in its wake oil also produced one “Humungous gap”.

It was about a $4 gap between $56 and $60, so crude oil can crash right back down to $56 with little problem. (or lower)

I have never noticed a gap in oil this large since I started wave counting oil. This is a very bearish signal.

There should be no panic as they say the drone attacks was just 5% of world oil production taken offline. This made the USA the largest exporter of oil for the short term.

The Gold/Oil ratio also compressed to 24.9 from Fridays ratio of 27.13. Oil refineries blow up regularly but they can also rebuild them very fast by working 24/7.

Only time can answer a few more questions, as we have to see how deep oil prices can still fall.  Any oil price fall below $45 will definitely kill this short term wave count.

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Crude Oil Drone Attack Review

It seems pretty popular that events and news releases happen on the weekend when the markets are closed. The recent drone attack in Saudia Arabia is a prime example.

The markets are closed so the oil prices will not react until the start of trading Sunday night. It still gives traders lots of time to think it over if panic is going to hit the oil market.

There is no shortage of oil in the world as every country wants to pump and sell as much as the can. In the USA refineries blow up on a regular basis, but production gets back online fairly quickly.

Oil could make a drive to $60 before another decline sends oil south, but again early next week should tell us more.

Oil is in a crazy complex correction that is far from being finished and if oil ever falls below the December 2018 low of $45 I must use my bullish wave count.

Oil is still in a death cross but that also can change next week if oil makes a bounce.

The Gold/Oil ratio is far away from being expensive (9.1) as today it sits at 27.13, which is barely a point difference than 10 days ago. The ratio is not an issue at this time.

The commercials are net short but those readings are not at extremes as well. There is lots of room for oil to move in both directions.

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Crude Oil: Weekly Chart Update

So far I’m going to stick with Cycle degree wave 4 as completed.

I have to be open to the idea that another big zigzag in Primary degree might happen, so this 5 wave sequence would end at another “A” wave in Primary degree.

Early this morning crude oil spiked and has started to dip again, and may still head to the $50 price range.

The Gold/Oil ratio is 26.8 which is more expensive than the August readings and this ratio should expand a bit more in September.

Any move that would take oil below the $45 price level might force another complete review.

Don’t expect some beautiful impulse move as we are in a diagonal world where wave structures do overlap and can even look like they are going sideways.

Switching from bar type to line type also changes the wave counts as many spikes get smoothed out in the process.

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Crude Oil Weekly Chart Review

Looking at oil from a weekly chart perspective I have made some changes where the 2016 low is also my Cycle degree 4th wave low!

If we are lucky this wave count may last until the end of the year but be open to being wrong.  This would be a diagonal 5 wave sequence but end at an “A” wave in Primary degree, not a wave 1 in Primary degree.

If any of this bullish scenario is true then expect choppy and overlapping waves that will keep the wave analysts scratching their heads.

Some wild spike to the downside could send this wave count into the digital graveyard fairly quick, but I have to run it until it’s eliminated.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 28:1 which is not that expensive.

In 2018 we saw a golden cross develop so it would be critical to watch if we get a death cross dip!

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Crude Oil 1980-2019 Review

Even though I look at the charts every day, my short term wave counts need improvements and that all depends on where we are in the bigger picture.

Crude oil charts go back to the 1850s and the start of Supercycle degree oil. One thing is certain is that crude oil and all commodities as well belong in the diagonal world where zigzags are everywhere and most of the time the waves overlap with each other.

This makes it impossible to count out any high quality 5 wave impulse.  There are more Minor degree 5 wave runs in a Cycle degree world and the above chart has two sets of them.

It may be a temporary thing but I reduced the degree level after the 2008 peak. This makes 2016 low the Primary degree “A” wave, matching gold.

If I moved wave 3 in Cycle degree back to the 1980 peak it would be very strange and all the wave counts would no longer make sense. I have switched to Cycle degree wave counting since 2013 and have “No” intention of going back again.

The Gold/Oil cash is about 26.7 which is not cheap enough to produce a massive crude oil bull market but still produce more zigzags along with the bullish gold price.

I show a potential wedge which oil will need to slice through. Oil would have to travel the furthest to the downside with a bearish mood. With the trade war and tanker traffic war turning off their GPS units, oil could float around for years distorting any fundamental reporting.

The USA is now the worlds largest oil and gas a producer which is not bad considering the experts had us running out of oil in early 2008!

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Crashing Crude Oil Update!

In the last year or so we have seen oil crash and in the last day or so another crude oil price drop has made its presence known.  There are no daily trading limits in commodities and it is the main reason why oil has made such huge price dips.

The decline is not finished just yet as I expect more downside to come.  The Gold/Oil ratio is flashing and today the Gold/Oil ratio is the second cheapest ratio in two years.

The Gold/Oil ratio sits at 29.42 today matched only once in the last two years! This is a fast ratio move and I would like to see this ratio continue to spread in the short term.  I trade the Forex oil units and have made some small good short bets, but the Gold/Oil ratio is sending a signal that we may have to reverse all our bearish thoughts as we will end up in a crude oil bear trap sooner or later.

Gold soaring, oil crashing changes the Gold/Oil ratio quickly so if we ignore it we can find ourselves in a crude oil bear trap and won’t have a clue that it is happening.

Oil might have another small degree, 3-4-5 wave count, to play out, but after that, a bullish oil move could surprise us.

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Crude Oil Intraday Rally Update

Last week activity in the tanker wars has heated up as drone attacks and crude oil carriers get seized. All the fundamentals would suggest that the oil price is going to soar, yet crude oil crashed late Friday even after the seizure of the second oil tanker.

Attacking shipping just reduces the amount of oil available but it also reduces world trade with an impending recession.

At this time oil could still soar to $56.80 as another zigzag is playing out but a short “C” wave is also a possibility.  When I can count 7 waves then a diagonal wave is a high probability but it also complicates any wave count.

I have a Minor degree top but that may be too high of a degree at this time. I use the intraday oil chart to help set-up my Forex Oil Unit trades and have switched between long and short bets for the past week.

I like to bet short when I can because there are no daily trading limits so short bets can travel very fast. I’m constantly reviewing the daily and weekly charts looking for a better fit but at this time I have too many alternative counts to contend with.

We have to see what the rest of July will bring as I still favor the bearish trend.

The Gold/Oil ratio is a bit better but still nothing to get excited about. 25.5 is today’s reading and any numbers that get close to 30 would sure get it close to where crude oil would be cheap again.

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Review

In the last few days, the oil chart has rolled over and the debate begins what the support price is going to be. When they speak of “Support” then those analysts are still in the bull market camp.  Of course, if this is all part of a bear market rally then we might not see support until below $50.  The world glut is coming (2020) and that does not justify the oil price to keep going to the moon.

I tried to knock down my degree but started to run out of degree levels so for now, I will keep it as a 5 wave decline in Minor degree.  We could get an ugly counter-rally “B” wave in this 5th wave, so I’m sure it will supply a bullish surprise when it comes.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 24.31 so this ratio should spread if gold keeps going up and the oil price keeps heading south.

Oil has no daily trading limits which create violent swings, so a crash that may sound insane to the majority of oil players is pretty normal from my perspective.

A large number of bullish traders use protective sell stops which are all piled up below present prices. Many of them will get triggered and next thing you know the oil price is free-falling, like an elevator that broke its cables!

I think there is more to this oil downside than just a mere correction but again the market has to confirm it.

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Crude Oil Another Potential Top!

I stretched this intraday chart so we can see back to the last major peak. It’s pretty hard to accept that a bullish run like this can be just a bear market rally, but for diagonal waves, this is still pretty normal.

This oil 4th wave I may have just barely kissed my wave 1 in Minor degree, which is also very normal for diagonal waves.

At $61 oil has started a small correction and the depth of any impending oil decline could trash the $56 price level.

Just as fast as oil has roared up it can die screaming from a bear attack.  Futures are always leveraged and have no daily trading limits, which produce very violent moves.

The oil units in a Forex account are just as violent which I try to trade in when I can. Four oil units take a little less than $20 to own and there are no contracts to contend with.

When I see a near vertical move like oil has just made, then either we get a strong correction or oil plunges with no support!

I will never post long drawn out fundamentals as thousands of others are doing just that already.  A few years from now nobody will remember or know why oil  has crashed.

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Crude Oil New Intraday High!

Crude oil has now charged higher since my last update and there may be more upside left to go.  Even though oil has topped $60 it would have to go above $66 to help confirm my “B” wave bottom in Minor degree.

Today the Gold oil ratio sits at 23.5  which is a bit more expensive. This ratio should keep spreading but If oil stops before $66 then a potential 4 wave rally would be still alive.

Gold is still in a bullish phase as its pushing higher as well. If $1800 is stiff resistance then $1800/23.5 would give us a $76.59 oil price.  I have a new set of 5 waves to contend with and they are diagonal wave structures so wild corrective moves can surprise us at any time.

Pipeline bottlenecks and refineries blowing up all seem to create the fundamental fear that the news just loves to hype.

The recent earthquake in Calfornia doesn’t help anybody to calm down but it didn’t take them too long to blame the earthquakes on climate change!

 

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Crude Oil Intraday Rally Review

This is the September contract and I made some small adjustments to what is a diagonal wave pattern.  With the world being fundamentally bullish and oil is pointing up, then showing you a potentially bearish scenario is hard to understand.

I expected the June rally and it started to hit resistance at $60. Even with trade wars, oil tanker attacks, tanker confiscation and a host of other fundamental reasons, crude oil can still crash.  Just because shortages can spike the oil price at any time, does not mean a whole new bull market has started.

Every time there was a war in the Mideast during the 1990s, oil would spike from a $10 low to $40 and then back down to $10.

That was a 19-year bear market with a triangle in its “B” wave of Intermediate degree. Oil is presently in an 11-year bear market and it had a huge bullish phase until 2014-2015 after which it crashed to $28.

The Gold/Ratio is sitting at 24.2 which is a bit cheaper but it seems to be stuck on repeat as this ratio hasn’t moved much.

All commodities travel as diagonals and they have been doing this since the Little Ice Age. The 1890s DJIA pattern is so choppy it took me years to understand. This all change with the Roaring 20s as other investments took over.

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Crude Oil Daily Chart Crash Review

At the $60 crude oil price level a small H&S pattern was starting to take shape. The speed of the June rally was just too fast as a near vertical spike makes this a candidate for being a bear market rally.

Diagonal 4th wave rallies can explode and come back hard and travel much higher than expected but it’s quite normal for diagonal wave structures.

This oil rally can also fit into an expanded pattern so 100% retracement could happen.

I  never try to put alternate wave counts up in the same chart but I switch back and forth until a wave count sticks longer than normal. I may have to lower my 5 waves in Minor degree down to a diagonal 5 waves in Minute degree but for now, this will do.

The Gold/Oil ratio is at 24.7 but I would like that to expand much further.

The action may be in the pipeline battles with refineries blowing up and pipelines getting old!

Have A Great July 4th America!

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Crude Oil Intraday Mini Crash Review

Late Friday crude oil took a sudden dip which I was expecting but didn’t know exactly when. So far June has been a good month for oil, but a correction seems to be underway.

I would like to see oil drop a few more dollars which could take until after the July holiday celebrations are done with.

Summer driving is around the corner and ICE vehicles will get you where you are going much faster than electric cars will.

Of course, if your battery pack doesn’t blow up first!  EV’s are supposed to replace “ICE” cars or “internal combustion engines” transportation, then why do they need to subsidize electric cars?

I call them “corrections” if I feel that another leg up can happen. Any 5th wave can extend dramatically and once it’s finished, I’m sure a spike will develop on the daily and weekly charts.

A price drop to $57 is what I would like to see, then the $66 price level would be my final price target. So far the waves are good looking impulse waves and they alternated from the choppy “A” wave very well.

Fossil fuels deliver and harvest 80% of all our food so without crude oil it wouldn’t take long before millions would starve to death.

 

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Crude Oil Daily Chart Update!

This is the September crude oil contract which shows the June crash very well. Now we are faced with a much stronger rally than expected which always calls for an instant review, and look for a better fit.

Today oil is producing another spike to the upside so a correction should be due if this “C” wave bull market has another leg to go.  Any correction can take oil prices back down to the $57 price level before it starts to crank up again.

You can find many fundamental reasons why oil is in a rally but I a few months from now no one will remember any of the fundamentals.  Fear as a motivator is the oldest trick in the book but fear usually, does not last that long.

Commercials are short oil but not by a large amount. The COT reports come out on Friday and we’ll find out if the commercials increased their bearish bets.

The Gold/Oil ratio is 23.48 and with 10 recorded ratios for the month of June, it is the most expensive so far.

At the $66 price level oil would be at a double top and “Truncated” or shorter than a normal looking zigzag.

The June crash is a flat wave pattern because there was a little single zigzag that started out the crash. 3-3-5 is a flat no matter how long the 5 waves decline for.

 

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Crude Oil Intraday Bullish Review

Crude oil has now traveled further than what I would like to see for a bear rally so I have to explore the bullish alternative.

I’m starting wave 1-2 in  Minute degree and the waves do look a bit short at this time. We also know that when it comes to extensions the 5th wave can perform miracles in any commodity.

A very important high would be at the $66 price level which would also produce another double top.

The Gold/Oil ratio is 24.3 which has not changed all that much.

I will keep this short for now as I have to review the daily chart as well.

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Crude Oil Intraday Correction?

During the night crude oil started a reversal and the only question is, is it a simple bull market correction or will the entire move in June be retraced?   Only time will tell but the rally does look like a zigzag so I will remain bearish but be vigilante if a bear trap is shaping up.  Gold is still in a rally but oil crashing makes oil become cheaper or cause gold to crash, as any Gold/Oil ratio will adjust itself.

On the daily charts, the 200-day MA has just produced a very small death cross so oil would have to do some fancy footwork to avoid a full-blown death cross.

There are no daily limits in all of the futures contracts I follow which means violent swings can always happen, and if your short oil then you may see some “green” in your oil short positions.

I have a small Forex account where I trade 5-10 oil units depending on how much confidence I have to the downside.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 24:1 and sooner or later this ratio has to shift making oil cheaper if oil keeps crashing in price.  Sooner or later the Gold/Oil ratio will bring the gold price down as well.

If gold blasts up to say $1511,  in a fit of panic, then the Gold/Oil ratio could hit a 62:1 ratio.  Gold can move $100-$200 easily but I have never seen or recorded any ratio spread that a 62:1 ratio would bring.

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Crude Oil Intraday Rally Update

As much as I would love to remain bullish with oil, a very sharp spike is also taking place. Oil got to $57.40 this morning and there may be a little more upside still to play out.

I’m sure the rest of the planet of oil speculators wouldn’t dare short oil at this point, because they work on fundamentals which is news. News about some tanker/drone attack and the price of oil goes berserk. Does that mean that oil is in a new bull market? I doubt it, as all this has happened before back in the 1990s.

In those days they had multiple wars driving the price of oil, but in the long run oil still crashed to $10 by 1999. I love to short or sell when I have a vertical move, as they can usher in a big correction or the end of a bullish phase. If oil still charges to $60 then this would be smack dab inside my previous 2nd wave of one lesser degree.

The Gold/Ratio has changed little as it still around 24! I will be rounding down or up my Gold/Ratios. Every time I post a ratio I also enter it in a small log book and in June I went overboard as I recorded 8 Gold/Oil ratios already.

I will give the oil postings a rest unless some unexpected dramatic news comes out.

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Crude Oil Another Intraday Look

As much as I would love to be bullish on oil especially when a potential golden cross is going to kick in. The June 13 bottom has now created an inverse zigzag which is a small bear market rally.

During all of June, we had a sideways market that sure looks like a triangle. Triangles happen in “4th” waves and “B” waves.

Just as fast as this golden crossing kissed it can also turn right back into a death cross!  Everybody is waiting for “Fundamental News” that might send crude oil soaring. Traders or investors can get very emotional during any news release which can send the markets down just as easily.

I trade the WTI Forex units and tried short positions several times this year so I cry a lot if I miss another shorting opportunity. I’m not just after any move as I look for any potential 5 wave sequences I can ride up or down.

If a potential move has a 50/50 chance then I only take small positions or be prepared to bail out fast.

The Gold/Oil ratio is around 24:1 which I would like to see expand some more.  I may have to wait until the weekend before I post another oil wave count.

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Crude Oil Intraday Impending Golden Cross?

Most of my intraday charts are at the 90 min scales with 500 bars. I like to use the same settings all the time which helps to stabilize the charts.  At the top which I think is wave 2 in Minor degree, the death cross developed and the rest is now history.  After every death cross comes a golden cross, so it would not take much of a price rally, before oil would be back in a golden cross situation.

The trend line I have will not hold and when it breaks out then it gives me a clue that one higher degree is still in play. The $55 price level would be the first price target, but the entire rally can go much further.

Even now I can draw a bullish wedge which is also very bullish at least in the short term.

The Gold/Oil ratio has not changed all that much and is around 25.7 and hitting the ratio brick wall. Oil crashed from a ratio of 20:1 so a 25:1 ratio is not all that cheap just yet.

Hopefully, we’ll know by the end of the week if another little bullish phase is in effect.

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Crude Oil Intraday Tanker Attack!

In the last 6-7 days, crude oil has created a double bottom followed by price surge due to some tanker attacks bound for Asia. Events like this happen but rarely do they spawn a complete bull market.

Crude oil can keep going but it should reach the top trend line before I turn bearish again.  I use oil futures to help set-up a Forex oil unit position. I like to make short bets as taking a strong long position can get us into a trap.  If a single oil short shows “Red” in my account then I get out and wait for a better bearish set-up.

Oil is in a bigger bearish phase than what we think but oil traders jump on a bullish move chasing the price.

Right now oil may be bullish for all of June as there is the potential of a 4th wave counter rally still to complete.

 

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Crude Oil Intraday Update And Impending Golden Cross!

With this December intraday chart, we can see that crude oil already had a death cross at the $61 price level. Crossings happen more frequently at this intraday level and another crude oil bullish phase would be a set-up for a golden cross.

There is room for oil to rally again, right to the top trend line at the $56.50 price level.  Another leg up sure could force a golden cross in oil to happen.  The problem with moving averages is that they are useless after they happen.

Any summer rally at this point sure could produce a golden cross but then another new set-up for another death cross can also happen.

I use crude oil futures as a set-up for trading Forex oil units so this morning I closed off any short positions I had in Brent and WTI oil. I sure can be wrong so I only take very small bullish positions where it is easy to bail out just in case no rally takes place at all.

Any price spike with a vertical move would force me to close any short term bullish positions, but if the bullish phase comes true then I would be building a new short position.

Another bullish move could take all of June to play out and surprise moves should be expected.

The Gold/Oil ratio has improved with a reading of 25.40:1 this morning and I want that spread to keep getting wider.

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Crude Oil Intraday Update

This is the September crude oil contract and the more I stare at it the better I like oil as a 4th wave expanded flat rally.  Chances are good that next week this rally could end and oil should resume its bearish trend.

That means that this oil rally is just another bear market rally even though it’s a small one. It takes very little upside for crude oil fans to turn bullish again but from my perspective, we could be facing a much bigger and longer bearish trend than we can imagine at this time.

Some analysts keep saying that oil is close to a bear market but this is a very narrow point of view. The real bull market in oil died in July 2008, with every rally since then being completely retraced.

Since 2008 oil had two major crashes followed by bullish phases. Analysts were convinced both times the crude oil would soar to the moon again but oil turned around and headed south each time.

The 2016 oil low may be the end to the oil bear market but the rally that followed sure has some impulse pattern issues.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 24:1 which should expand some more as the price of oil declines.

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Crude Oil Intraday Chart Update

Crude oil hit a bottom 2 days ago and is still above $52.17 so far. What I’m expecting is a longer and higher correction which may take oil back up to the $55 price level. Two days is also not long enough for a Minor degree correction to complete which could take until mid next week.

As long as the waves are choppy and overlap then the odds are good that oil prices will not soar to the moon.

So far the decline looks diagonal and the 50-day MA could get sliced while the 200-day MA should over resistance.

With the price of gold blasting upward the gold/oil ratio changed just as fast but it’s still around 24:1. We want that ratio to spread as gold becomes cheaper during this bearish phase.

I think this oil bear party is far from over until most of the oil bulls get butchered or we see then running for the hills.

 

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Crude Oil Daily Chart Review

One thing we can trust oil to do is to go in the opposite direction when the oil bulls call for oil to go much higher.  When the oil media calls for higher oil prices, then I ask a silly question, “Who are they talking to?”  What group of smart investors or traders are still lurking in a cave somewhere that just loves to buy oil at much higher prices?

How oil has crashed so far shows us that it was the bears hiding in the forests that came out and decimated the oil bulls, at least for now!

I will not repeat all the fundamental news for you as we can have a thousand reasons put out by 1000 different blogs.

No trend lasts forever and how much they retrace down to gives us an idea if we are in a bear market rally or a true bull market.

In the chart above between the “B” wave bottom and “C” wave top in Minor degree, we want to know if it is a bear market rally or not. We are at about a 50% retracement right now, but that does little as we can also get 80% plunges.

Nothing but a complete retracement clearly visible on daily charts would have to happen, after which the early 2019 bullish rally is a bear market rally.

The most expensive Gold/Oil ratio hit about 19:1, after Fridays oil price thrashing the ratio ended at about 24:1. This was a quick jump in the ratio and we may be ready for a counter-rally in June.

Of course, we could see a very violent counter rally and it to must be a fake bullish phase if the oil bearish phase has not completed.

Oil has been in a bear market since the 2008 peak, where every counter rally since then has already been retraced. Since the July 2008, peak oil produced two major lows which would work for a normal correction but in an 11-year bear market, 3 major bottoms can also happen.

11 years sounds like a solar cycle to me, which I call a fundamental indicator that most wave analysts ignore.

Even though the overall decline needs to go much deeper there are no daily trading limits in commodities, that I know about. You can’t get a more vertical drop than what was produced on Friday so the bears could be in a short term bear trap. I closed off all short positions in Forex Oil units on Friday and even took a small long position.

The moving average lines will get pulled down until another oil death cross is formed.

 

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Update

Crude oil gave us a short bullish move before oil reversed and plunged to a new bearish low.  Oil has completed 2 sets of zigzags and we need two more and maybe a third, which could turn into a flat.

Another $5-$6 drops would be nice and then oil would be ready for a wave 3-4 rally in Minor degree.  These diagonal waves can make spectacular moves when there are no daily trading limits.

I would love to see another small 5 waves down in Minuette degree before another potential counter rally can kill the bears and send them running back into the forest!

They’ll be back and that should coincide with my 5th wave down in Minor degree.

The Gold/Oil ratio definitely got better but at 22.8:1, it’s still not enough to jump up and down about.  I do have some WTI short positions and so far the trade is in the green.

All this can fall apart if the “B” wave in Intermediate degree is too far off base. It may take until November/December before this, “Run of Five” gets completed.

When the “B” wave disappears on this 90 min chart then the wave 2 in Minor degree will be the main position I’ll be counting from.

The problem is that any “E” wave bottom in Primary degree could be below the $26 price level which is about $30 away from today’s price low. For that to come true some serious extensions would have to help it otherwise oil could come to a grinding halt much earlier.

During this 90 min chart, we had a golden cross and then right back into a death cross. With the daily chart, it will not take long for the 50-day MA to slice through the 200-day MA.

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Crude Oil Crash Intraday Update

This is the December 2019 contract.  During May the counter rally had many analysts forecasting the return of the bull but instead the oil bears came out out and decided to shred oil bulls which produced about a $6 price crash.

Since the April top I believe a diagonal decline is a high possability and started the count to help confirm it.

I have 2 zigzags in a row so that rules out any flat at this time, but it also means crude oil can come back and dip well into the previous wave 2 of the same degree. This would be close to the $62 price level and must not exceed above May 2019 highs. ($63.25)

The big test is yet to come so we have to see if any rally continues to be choppy or even go sideways for the rest of the month.

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Intraday Crude Oil Rally Update

This crude oil rally in the month of May looks like an inverted zigzag and can work as a bear market rally. Diagonal waves do make wild moves and can confuse us by breaking out to a new record high.

In a true blue bear market rally, this chart cannot push to a new high past that April peak of $64.89, otherwise we have to assume that the bull market had not completed in April.

In the next week or two oil should give us a better picture, but I sure would like to see oil breakout of this short term sideways market.

The Gold/Oil ratio hasn’t changed that much as at 20.30:1 the Gold/Oil ratio number is still hitting a brick wall which started in the first part of April 2019.

I will not repeat or entertain the reams of fundamental data being continuously spewed out, as it’s impossible for me to compete.

Fear of war can drive prices, but fear moves are highly overrated as they rarely last very long. Fear of war also happened in the first Gulf war so our present situation is not that much different.

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