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Category Archives: Coal

Coal ETF KOL: The First Cycle Degree 4th Wave Bottom?

 

This afternoon, May 1, 2018  I took a detailed count of all the Cycle degree wave 3 peaks, that I have found in all the work I do.  The first quick preliminary count I took I came up with about 16 peaks! This amount surprised me a bit, but when I took the second count I came up with 27 Cycle degree wave 3 peaks. Some are a bit “iffy” and still need work, but in the hunt for Cycle degree wave three peaks, I saw KOL which is a coal related ETF. If you have never seen a great looking implosion, then here is a good one.

Once I looked at that $5 bottom, it looked like the Cycle degree 4th wave has completed. KOL peaked along with oil, and then also crashed with oil.  This deserves watching to see if we finished wave 1 in Primary degree. If that is the case, then a decent correction “must” play out. It sure will not stop at the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, as a wave 2 crash can go very deep to a 60-70% retracement.  There is a chance that this is a 4th wave rally, but a very steep decline could kill that idea. The bull market from the 2016 bottom looks very impulsive, so that helps the wave 1-2 scenario.

The initial crash from the 2008 peak was straight and steep, which is the sign of a zigzag “A5” wave.  The Primary degree “B” wave top did not soar to new record highs, which a zigzag in this position should not do. We could be in a big triangle with only the first “A”completed and 4 more wild moves to go.

Even with a triangle, we need a much higher move to finish. KOL has no leverage in it that I know of, and this allows the waves to form cleaner with less diagonal waves.

This is a beautiful pattern and I could just about use it as a real world example for the DOW!  I would have to shorten this bear market by about 4 years, which would make all moves much steeper and travel faster.  This KOL needs watching, so a wave two bottom can be confirmed. Having the potential of seeing 5 waves in Primary degree unfold, will be amazing. Any one of my Primary degree idealized charts from inventory, will help.

This would be the very “first”  Cycle degree 4th wave bottom that might hold, but again, it needs love and care to get  confirmed. I don’t have the time to track this in detail, but will try and catch it just “before” it hits a wave 2 bottom. Either way, any wave count idea must be confirmed, or it should be thrown out  and a new count initiated.

 

This is the idealized 5 wave impulse road map I would use.

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