I’m convinced that the pattern of this KOL crash is a single completed zigzag crash that had its start back when all energy related EFTs started to crash. This was 3 years ahead of all gold related peaks which is also a Fibonacci number. The secondary peak in 2011, matched the precious metals mania peak. Previous presidents killed the coal market but president Trump sure brought it back to life. Sure, I like clean energy just like anyone else, but they can also use some very clean coal burning technologies that scrubs many of the harmful by-products that are associated with coal burning as a source of electricity.
Commodatity wave patterns in some respects look like normal patterns but “ALL” commodities are connected with giant zigzags. Using normal stock market wave analysis will never work because we have to count them like big diagonals. Diagonals are the wildest patterns you will ever run across and they must be labeled correctly if they are being used.
If the 2016 bottom is a 4th wave bottom in Cycle degree, then we could be facing a big KOL correction with the next major peak not expected until 2o41. That still leaves lots of time for a huge bear market to still play out. KOL should not break to new record lows if the next big bullish phase is in progress. I will not count out all the little waves as there could still be many adjustments along the way that will need to be done. I will not be trading this ETF as the gold sector has all of my attention, but KOL offers a climpse into the future that is too hard for me to ignore.
There may only be a few Cycle degree 4th wave bottoms completed, with the US dollar index being another. 2018 seems to be a peak at this time, and not until I see that a clear or better looking correction has taken place, will I turn bullish on KOL. 2019 could be positive for all commodaties, as a rebound is most likely to happen.
Deflation is coming so for the next three years KOL could act very bearish. The start of solar cycle #25 should turn KOL into acting bullish, as solar cycle bottoms are bear market assasins! Markets usually crash 1-2 years before solar cycle bottoms, just like they did during the 2008 crash. KOL and stocks hit bottom together in 2009 as they seemed to synchronize very well.