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Japanese Yen Intraday Elliott Wave Review

eI want to warn readers that this YEN Elliott Wave count is an experimental project that can go wrong in unknown ways very quickly. The 2011 top matches gold and gold stocks very well. I see the YEN decline matching the gold stock decline, right down to matching the mid 2013 correction as well. Even the 2016 rally matches gold’s rally fairly well.  Our present rally is also a choppy rally  that just will not fit into an impulse without some extreme “forcing”. Forcing a wave count to fit our outlook will never work in the long run as the markets will shred those types of wave counts in short fashion.

I have tried for many years to make sense out of the bigger picture in the YEN. It still would need an incredible amount of time and attention before ‘I’m happy with the big picture, but for now an intraday wave count will have to do.  All support would have to get “taken out”, including the 2015 low for the YEN to show us that the bearish trend is still alive.

Commercial reports do not show extreme short positions on the YEN, so they are not that useful at this time. As the YEN declines, then the commercials will just keep adding to their bullish positions. They say gold is still going to head north, but will the YEN follow?  The YEN is one of 6 currencies in the US dollar index basket and it deserves watching if this gold/yen relationship keeps up. Futures are strictly “single units” as they are not “Pairs” like you would find in the Forex markets. You would have to find the exact pair that matches this futures chart to take advantage of any action that may happen in the futures market.

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YEN, 1978-2016 Monthly Chart Elliott Wave Count Review

 

J6Y00-July-5-2016

 

Since currencies seemed to be unstable around the world, (just changing directions), it is a good idea to review the YEN again.  I went as far back as this monthly chart allows, and it is enough to see there may be an Impulse wave in progress.  This impulse, changed to a diagonal 5th wave.  As soon as the 4th wave in Intermediate degree was finished, the last 5 waves have been in a diagonal pattern. 

Now look at the potential diagonal 4th wave crash recent bottom. See how deep it has gone before it reversed.  Can a 4th wave diagonal low dip into the previous diagonal wave 2 this far? You bet they can and they do it regularly. The 4th wave stopped well into wave 2 but did not go below it. 

Unless the YEN is still bent on making a small triangle, we should see all time new record highs with the yen. So at best, the YEN may hit a Cycle degree wave 3 top in a few years and then a new bear market should unfold.  

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