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Category Archives: US Dollar

US Dollar 1985-2018 Monthly Chart Update

 

I’m sure all the gold investors will be grinning from ear to ear much like the Joker in a Batman movie, as the US dollar keeps declining. What this big chart shows is the huge falling wedge from that 1985 peak, which stopped in 2008 before it blasted in a surprise move. That 2008 rally was no surprise to the contrarians at that time because I documented the turning in great detail, and at that time I also had some futures long contracts out on in, and caught a good part of the move.

From the 2008 bottom  I spent years counting it out as a bear market rally, and switched to a bullish wave count as well.  The idea that a beautiful impulse is still going to happen, will fail as soon as the USD dips into my wave “A”.  It doesn’t even have to get that far as, but if  the USD is in a much bigger bull market then the US dollar will find a major bottom and reverse. The wedge is telling us that a huge bull market still has to form in the US dollar.

The US dollar is heading into a correction that may take it down to that 80 price level before it finds a solid bottom again. Since the Euro makes up about 57% of the US dollar index, it has shown very bullish moves inverse to the US dollar.  When the US dollar does find a new bottom then many of my COT reports and the Market Vane report, will also change to a bullish reversal. I believe the ETF UUP would be a buy once wave 2 in Primary degree sees it’s bottom.

Without a doubt the US dollar will soar above 120 and even beat or double top the 1985 peak at about 165.  This may take until 2041 to happen, so only the younger wave analysts will benifit in the long-term.

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bull Market Update

 

The US dollar refuses to die and that is because it’s in a huge bull market which only a few market observers understand. I have been mapping this huge bull market to memory first as we have to “see” the pattern first before we can count it out! Wave counting is a secondary act of confirming what we think we are seeing.

This bullish phase can still last all year, but I do expect a violent US dollar crash to happen during 2019 and even last until early 2020. (March) This would happen when the US dollar corrects for a Primary degree 4th wave crash after which we will see a bullish phase in the US dollar that will shock us all. It sure will be a surprise for gold investors as they will get burned in the process. The US dollar bottomed in 2008 as a 4th wave Cycle degree bottom ending with a zigzag. Oil peaked with the US dollar bottom, which seems to be 3 years apart from when gold peaked.

“All” commodities are linked together with zigzags in a diagonal world and where the EWP rules are constantly being broken. It is impossible to make sense with commodities, if we can’t count inverted zigzags lasting over 40 years. Gold bugs have a real problem with a big US dollar bull market as the gold price will get crushed during the next 3 years. This year or in September, gold will break below $1047 and even end up crashing down between $700-$800.

No matter how bullish the US dollar is very long term, it is during it’s corrections that gold and gold stock ETFs will soar. From a traders point of view it matters little as we have the freedom to bet down or up when the time comes. I’m very bearish on all gold stock related ETFs and have no intention of closing off my bearish positions. I have added options to the mix and they have to get closed off a week or so before their expiration date turns them worthless!

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US Dollar Daily Chart Update!

 

During July and August the US dollar started to go sideways before it started another correction. There can always be a bit of downside to go, but a higher low seems to already  happened.  Since we have two spikes to draw a H&S line across, we see that this can be very bearish for the longer term.  If the US dollar is in a much bigger bull market, then any H&S reaction will blow the lid off the right sided shoulder.  When the US dollar breaks out it will help to confirm that the US dollar is far more bullish than we can imagine at this time.

A bull market in the US dollar is “deflation”, as it will also kill the price of gold. The $1200 gold price is a psychological even number, so when this $1200 no longer holds, then this will really upset the gold bulls. Without a doubt the US dollar will break out to new record highs, as the Euro implodes again. One main USD price high to beat is 107 or higher and then 122 will be another price peak that eventually gets hit as well. The first major breakout could happen by the end of this year, but that is still 4 months away.

Yes, the commercials are building up net short positions in the US dollar, but they can handle extremes as they are the closest to the industry and have far less risk that any of the hedge funds have. (speculators). Even my Market Vane report showed a high perentage of US dollar bulls present, which suggest that the US dollar could still implode.

Once the US dollar resumes its bullish trend, then the Euro will carry on with it’s bearish trend. Again, gold investors need for the Euro and our CAD to keep going up, as the CAD and the Euro are inside the US dollar basket.

The Euro will travel in the opposite direction than the US dollar, so wishing and praying for the Euro to soar is very unrealistic at this time.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

 

Some of the COT numbers for the US dollar have already been shifting as the commercial traders start to pile on short positions agains the US dollar. We also had a US dollar death cross, but during 2008-2011 we had many crossing. Another rally would turn the Death Cross back to a Golden Cross very fast.

Early 2018 the USD came to a screaching halt at 89 after which it started to crank up, push the price of gold downward. in the process. For those that are convinced that the US dollar will implode due to over printing, will be right at one point. The five waves down, since 2016 did send the gold price soaring, but the gold price refused to push higher after.

From about 1992, all the way up and then back down to early 2008 is just a correction in a US dollar bull market that very few understand.

A bear market is just a correction to a bigger bull market, and eventually this US dollar chart has to retrace the entire bear market, and travel above 2016 and 2001 highs as well.

Any bull market with the US dollar is deflation!  In 2011 the US dollar exploded, along with stocks and gold stocks took a major beating. This is a classic description of a stock mania that has happened many times before.

I know EWI has a very bullish US dollar wave count and I switched back and forth a few times myself. Any trend doesn’t just quit on some news as you can’t stop a trend before it’s time! The 2008 bottom was a prime example how bearish the entire world was towards the US dollar. Yet in face of all the overwhelming bearish news, the US dollar started to rally which still isn’t over.

Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as late 2007 was about as extreme as I ever recorded. Even my Market Vane (MV) report from Tuesday, has about 74% bulls present which is on the high range alright, but this extreme could also reach 96% or 98% before the US dollar implodes. Lumber had 98% bulls present, which is the most extreme I have ever seen. With the silver mania bubble peak in 2011, the MV extreme reach 96%. With those kind of odds, markets have no choice but to reverse.

 

 

 

 

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US Dollar Monthly 1980-2018 Review

When we go back to the 1980 era we see the USD hit a peak in 1985 before it imploded and started to end in 2008. All this is great but forgetting or ignoring the pattern the USD made to that 2008 bottom, is the key. Back in 2008 the world hated the US dollar as the majority were all trying to get out of the US dollar by any means neccesary, so investing in gold was the most popular theme. I had that 2007-2008 time period very well documented as the contrarians at that time also said tha the US dollar is going on a bullish run. Commercials were net long while the speculators (hedge funds), all were on the US dollar bearish side of the trade. One thing I can “Always” count on is that these hedge funds  “Always” get in a trap. In 2008 the US dollar bears were in a bear trap, and there is only one way to get out of a trap and that is with a violent trend reversal.

The wedge is one of my most important tools that help to see big moves long before they happen. I though the USD was just in a big bear rally, but that $89 price level bottom early this year, changed my mind. I know that EWI has the USD as a bull market as well,  so I would just be confirming them from a Cycle degree perspective.

The rise in the US dollar is “deflation”, by any sense of the word, which is the cause of the imploding price of gold/oil and many other commodity prices. World wide asset prices have inflated so much which is all coming to an end when all asset prices start to deflate again.

The US dollar is in a major bull market that will not end in my lifetime as Supercycle (SC) degree wave 3 is still ahead of us, (2041) and Grand Supercycle degree wave 3 is at least another 30-years past that. (2071) I have what I call in-house developed indicators which I talk about,  but only my one on one clients get the detailed explanation. I have a “Wave Pool” which has a collection of 25 or so futures wave positions in it, with about another 25 ETF wave positions as well.

When some expert goes on a gold rant expecting $5000 gold then this forecast would instantly cause havoc with my wave counts when I’m wrong, but if my, “Wave Pool”, barely sends out a ripple, I know that this bullish gold forecast will never happen!

Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as the markets are always wrong. When the experts all start to sound the same, it always justifies taking the contrary position or point of view.

Any stock market herd of investors can never win, as markets will never allow the majority to take money from the same majroity of participants. The 80/20 Principle tells us that. (20% of the population owns 80% of all assets in the world)

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US Dollar Intraday Flash Crash Review

This is just a raw data dump that captures what I think is a computer generated type of a Flash Crash! No human can execute in such a fashion. It also shows how stop sweepers work as millions get made by the markets hitting sell stop orders. The huge gap opened up but was instantly sealed right back up!  This US dollar has refused to die, because the US dollar bull market is far bigger than anyone would even dare think about. The US dollar can keep right on heading north right until November or so with gold below $800! Then we will see a USD crash that will surprise the majority again! The majority will never see the USD bull market coming but a few can.

Give it all until the end of the year to become very visible to everyone, after which the markets will be setting up for a major reversal!  This US dollar bull market is far from over and eventually gold and the general stock markets are going to sync up and stay that way for a very long time.  At a bare minimum the US dollar is on a 5 wave run in Primary degree and it will end on a Supercycle degree peak! Big deflation is coming folks and golds price crash in the next few years will reflect defaltion perfectly.

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UUP: US Dollar ETF Review

This is the ETF that tracks the US dollar and it will give us a different wave count as the 2014 low shows. UUP made another spike to the upside today which is far from finished as the US dollar is in a bull market of  Grand Supercycle degree or even Submillennium degree. A bull market in the US dollar is deflationary and will continue on its bullish path for a long time. I’m working 5 waves up in Primary degree as the 2008 bottom was one of my 4th wave bottoms in Cycle degree. I’m still very positive that the US dollar has an expanded flat with the 2018 bottom being wave 4 in Intermdeate degree. Techically this UUP ETF should break to new record highs until this fall, and then crash going into the first half of 2019. This Primary degree wave 4 crash will send the price of gold soaring, even though it may only last 5-8 months.

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US Dollar: Weekly Chart Golden Cross Review

Since so many things correlate to Intermediate degree 4th waves, I decided to keep my old wave count going. My Cycle degree 4th wave bottom in the US dollar stays after which it explodeded while stocks, gold, silver investments crashed. The entire planet was bearish on the USD back in 2008, but yet it turned and soared ignoring all fundamentals at that time. US dollar bear experts dropped like flies as their forecasts were all proven wrong.

I don’t escpecially like some of the positions but I sure think we are dealing with an expanded flat in Intermediate degree. An expanded flat always means a new record high will come. This new record would be above 104 on this futures chart. The next bull market peak to break will be 122, with the biggest price to retrace being 165!

On the monthly and daily charts, the Golden Cross has already happened, it is this weekly chart that needs another Golden Cross to happen. Three golden crosses on the US dollar sure looks like a bull market to me! Five waves up in Primary degree is what we need to complete wave 5 in Cycle degree. I will be making adjustments  along the way but the US dollar bull market has been unleashed, which will produce a deflationary crash that no one alive today has ever experienced.

Deflation is in our future, not some imaginary runaway inflation that the gold bulls must have to be right. It has nothing to do with printing money folks, it’s all about the velocity of any money in the economy at any given time. Ignoring the world fertility crash is a big mistake as billions of older generations will be gone by 2050 and retired people are frugal. When markets crash, couples stop having babies as uncertainty grows, so after a market crash, fertility rates crash as well.

As the US dollar keeps turning up, then this will drag the 50-day MA up into the 200-day MA and then all three time periods will have completed golden crosses.

That’s about as bullish for the USD as any simple technical indicator could ever tell us.

On the monthly chart I also have a huge falling wedge which is another very bullish indicator that I use. This bull market could keep going for the rest of the year but then be ready for a big USD crash that will send the gold price soaring again. There are those that see it coming, and then there is always the majority that will never see any crash coming.

 

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US Dollar Big Picture Review: Inflation Or Deflation?

The top chart is work in progress. I work out my wave positions from memory in the shape of pictures, then I try to confirm it (offline) by working on my paper print out wave positions. With difficult wave positions, I always work from paper as the rest of the world has their heads stuck in their computers or cellphones. If you were to test the wavers on the entire internet, I bet not a single expert waver can produce the same wave count offline and on paper in front of my eyes!

I have some huge important gaps in the USD wave positions but I’m very confindent, that the USD is in a much bigger bull market than any expert on this planet can presently imagine. The gold bugs are escpecially wrong if the the dollar remains bullish until 2101. (Submillennium Degree wave 3) GSC degree wave 3 would end about 2071.

It’s between major peaks of the USD and its corrections,  that will produce wild gold bullish phases that will blow your mind.

Folks, there is a time when to invest in gold and there is a time when to “SELL” gold. Holding gold at the 2011 peak is the worst mistake that investors make as 2011 was a 30 year gold cycle mania peak. Not some correction in an ongoing bull market where they expect $5000 gold. This is not going to happen as gold will hit  below $500 long before gold $5000. They got their zeros wrong!  I was always scratching my head how the goldbulls can expect a super bull market, in gold when the USD has so little room to implode.

The 2018 low in the USD (89) was a critical clue in all this which turned my USD bearish sentiments into USD bullish sentiments. My 5 waves down I thought counted out great to the degree, but then when it took off, very bullish patterns started and I had to switch to a big bull market instantly. We can’t be asleep at the switch, as every major turning  requires us to switch 180%.

I made up two of these but with the bigger trend lines that I see. Just the big wedge alone, for this length of time suggests a huge USD bull market is coming, which is deflationary to say the least. The USD has turned into a safe-haven currency and I for one switched to USD trading as fast as I could, and I have no regreats in doing so.

What do you think we will find if we hunt for a Golden Cross in the US dollar? On daily charts this has already happened so we have to use the Golden Crossings in a bull market. The rest of the world is sitting on Death Crosses, while the USD has just finished a Golden Cross in the daily charts. Sooner or later the USD should see a new record high, which will shock the gold investor, in how could this happen?

I just want readers to know that even though my wave counts are iffy at this point, I’m always working on the bigger picture. I’ve been at this for over 20 years trying to solve the USD Anigma code and I will not give up until I die.  It is the world birthrate crash that is doing it, that all forecasters are ignoring. I have relatives that are going to get very hurt in the next 3 years, as they are all “invested” in real-estate!  I’m a trader where cash flow is king, and nothing else matters. USD Capital preservation is going to be the key, as all other currencies are going to get crushed!  I have to make a living from my wave positions, and I would be wiped out pretty quick if I can’t make a 180 degree turning when I need to.

I have recently told my client in what I see in gold, and he has no problem with it, even though he has a good gold silver stash for his son and grandson.

In the next few years we will see how financial advisors that got you into gold acually know where they are. How many of them will call up their clints and say, “I think that gold is going to crash, and we should cash out now!”

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Bullish Update!

I tried these wave positions several times in the past but I have to bring it back as the USD could be in a bigger bullish move than anyone even suspects at this time. At the 2018 low I was expecting a wave 2 rally, which even has returned to the previous high where I would expected the wave 2 rally to end. Even the Death Cross on this weekly chart is showing, which is extremely bearish for the US dollar. Don’t get fooled by this Death Cross as they are all lagging indicators. The sequence I’m  looking for in a bull market is GC,DC,GC.

We had the first Golden Cross back in 2012 and look at that wild bullish move that it gave. Our next crossing should be a Death Cross, which has happened. Again they are lagging indicators as this market could turn where the 50 day line would crank up and slice through the 200 day line.  A very short life span of a Death Cross for sure. It may 10 weeks for the next Golden Cross to happen, but when it does it could spew out a major bullish phase surprising all USD watchers.

The Euro is melting down as the rest of the world currencies are in worse shape than the US dollar is. Safe-Haven in the US dollar? Now there is a real fundamental switch. Most analysts haven’t even suspected that this can happen, as the majority is always wrong at the extremes. Gold bugs need for the US dollar to implode, and the Euro and our Canadian dollar to soar, but none of that has materialized, in fact, the very opposite has been happening. The commercial positions are still short the Euro, so this has to reverse if the Euro is still to soar. Our Canadian dollar is heading into the toilet, which does not support any sustained gold rally at all.

For this US dollar bullish move to get confirmed, the US dollar “must” breakout by hitting a new bull market record high. Once it does that, then we could get into some violent US dollar moves. This  will drive gold bugs crazy as the US dollar has a direct or inverse relationship with gold. I’m a contrarian analysts and if I see that gold bugs are acting stupid, I have no guilty feelings, or hangups, in shorting them.  The only obligation I have is to find the best long trade setups for my friends and myself, and warn of major impending reversals and crashes. This happens at the Intermediate and Primary degree levels the most.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Golden Crosses Update.

 

In early 2018 the US dollar hit the 89 price target but at the exact same time an extension of the trend line was possiable. The US dollar is acting as a safe-haven go to currency which not to many gold investors are aware of.  With the US dollar still being in a bullish funk, two Golden Crosses have already formed. This is the very opposite of our CAD.

The problem is that all Death or Golden Crosses are lagging indicators at best, so I hardley use them. If the US dollar short term crash was just a correction, (Expanded).  Then the USD must prove this out by pushing to a new record high. Even if it only squeaks past the top by the smallest amount, the USD decline must get completley retraced from the point of orgin.

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Update

Is this Head&Shoulder pattern a bullish or a bearish indicator?  Tecnically speaking we are at a previous high that still could fit a Minor degree rally and we should see a major decline to follow. If we look at this H&S pattern as a bullish sign then what has to happen, is the point on the right shoulder is going to be forced off.  The 89 price level is not just a lucky stop but it’s a Fibonacci number as well. 89 is also where the 2011 bottom meets perfectly with the bullish trend line.

Falling below this 89 price level, the US dollar would have to overcome major resistance to the downside. My bet is that the US dollar is in a much bigger bullish phase than what anyone can envision right now. Actually, the US dollar could be acting like a safe-haven place to hide, from the Euro storm that has been brewing for years.  The US dollar rally is keeping gold prices in check and as long as that scenario stays gold could crash much deeper than expected. Hoping of the return of the US dollar bear is just wishful thinking because this bullish move could last well into the fall. Commercials are net short the USD by a very wide margin and a bull market can keep fighting of the bears  for a very long time.

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US Dollar Intraday Bearish Action Update

The US dollar has been standing up very well recently but and correction has not gone deep enough to make a difference. The rally in the last few days also has been very choppy, so this sure works as still part of the counter rally. I relabeled the top with an “A” wave but this may just be a temporary thing until I eliminate more alternate wave counts.

There still should be a very bullish move coming as the entire USD may still be part of a bigger bullish phase.  The Euro should act inversley to the US dollar, but otherwise I remain bearish on the Euro.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Phase Update

So far the US dollar is in a bullish phase that has no signs of quiting any time soon. The Euro acts inversley to the US dollar, like our  Canadian dollar and the Austrailian dollar is.

Right now, I think we are in another correction, with gold spiking back up to $1300, and oil also making a good bullish showing today.  If a brand new leg down was to happen then our present run is coming up to resistance. We also have a H&S pattern set-up so if the bearish scenerio is true then this H&S pattern would be a bearish set-up. This could also be a very bullish H&S set-up and if that is true then the US dollar will blow past this resistance price level with little effort.

Any 5 wave move can point to lower lows, but if it was attached to an expanded  “C” wave decline, then the US dollar can see new record highs. This may take all summer and well into the fall to complete so until this happens the bearish forces will still dominate and gold move.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Rocket Bull Market Update

The US Dollar bull run just keeps on going. I hate to call any top at this moment because these types of moves  can extend dramatically. We do have a small vertical spike that seems to be forming, but again we could still be a bit early for a decent correction to take place. Troubles in Italy and the Euro in general, is helping to confirm the EURO bear market and this US dollar bull market.

I believe the US dollar crashed as an expanded wave 4 correction and if that is the case then the US dollar still has to score a new bull market record high.  It still may take the rest of this summer or into the fall before this bullish run starts to get near an end, but it will end. When that top arrives then another big US dollar bearish phase will ensue and gold related assets will enjoy another huge bullish phase. As long as the bullish presure remains in the US dollar, gold and gold stock ETFs will act subdued or very bearish.

In the 2008 crash gold stock ETFs also crashed along with oil and other related assets, so there is no reason why it can’t happen again. For now I started with the Minor degree wave count and it may look a bit small, but moves like this can soar once real extensions start to happen.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

In late February I was calling for a US dollar counter rally, but as soon as it did charge up, the pattern was very impulsive looking which usally sends markets much higher than anyone expects at this time. The Euro is just inverse to the US dollar, which has been on a decline as well. It’s not just about one asset class as the US dollar bull market and bear market phases sends reverberations across many other asset classes as well.  The US dollar rally has been the reason why gold has been so lethargic. If a correction in this US  dollar bull market is due, then gold could see some bullish moves as well.  One little dip in the US dollar doesn’t turn gold into a massive bull market over night.

All commodaties I track are in a 4th wave in Cycle degree, and most of them are still far from being finished. With about 30 Cycle degree wave 3-4s in play, it may take until 2021 before many of them will be ending their respective 4th waves in Cycle degree. There are only a few asset classes that have seen a 4th wave bottoms, but in a few years time, many more will join the club. All these 4th wave endings will produce 5 wave waves up in Primary degree, but in commadaties, these 5 wave sequences can be extremely choppy as well.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Review

I’m sure the gold bugs will not like the US dollar wave count, but it runs inversely to the Euro and wouldn’t do it’s “own thing” no matter what we think.

For gold to soar, we need the US dollar to implode, but obviously that is not happening at this point. This potential 5 wave run looks identical to the Euro 5 wave decline. I also moved my bearish degree level down by one with this run, but may have to shift back if this pattern does something completely different.

As it sits this US dollar bullish phase is not completed but a correction seems to be in progress. It’s this USD correction that has stopped gold’s decline for now.  This bullish phase could move at a very high speed, but it is developing a pretty good looking impulse which can make it easier to count out.

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US Dollar Bullish Phase Review

When I was working the Euro wave count I saw a very bearish scenario. The USD moves inversely to the Euro which is clearly evident in the chart. There is a very good chance that the US dollar peak was just an expanded correction and that our February low is an Intermediate degree 4th wave bottom.  I was bullish with this turning but as a Minor degree wave 2. Shit, we could see 5 waves up in Minor degree that will shock and awe us all.   Stocks have plunged, but the USD is soaring so that sure does not help gold any.

Right now the USD is at a resistance level, producing a big H&S pattern. There are bullish H&S patterns and there are bearish H&S patterns, so if this bullish phase has much longer to travel, then the line on the left shoulder will get lifted. Yes, I now have 2 open gaps on the way up, but they could remain open for the duration. This little pattern showing a much bigger potential bullish move, is enough to trigger a monthly chart review instantly.

When something in the intraday scale goes amiss then this is a signal to count backwards to find our mistakes. This has implications that wave 3 in Cycle degree could have ended in 2008 along with oil. Our CAD is going the opposite way which had it’s Cycle degree wave 3 peak in late 2007!  With so many Cycle degree peaks completed it feels like this blog is the graveyard  where Cycle degree wave 3 peaks come to die!  😉

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Quick US Dollar Intraday Rocket Ride update

This week we saw the remarkable rise in the US dollar, leaving behind one big gap as it surged closest to the previous peak of a wave 1. The wave 1 peak is the  resting place of the bullish trader as they love to jump on the upside bandwagon.  All this has to eventually wear out, but I’m hesitant to call a top just yet. We could get a quick short free fall, and then instantly resume this bullish trend. We can go much higher in the short term, but a correction is due.  We are on a potential wave 2 rally in Minor degree which will set the tone for the remainder of the bear market.

If the USD crashes in a big 3 wave fashion, then, this could signal that a triangle may be in play, but it would also mean that we are in a “B” wave counter rally in Minor degree which can contain the smaller triangle.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Phase Update.

It’s obvious that we see the US dollar in a bullish phase. Technically, it would be called a bear market rally if we believe that more downside is still to come.

Otherwise, we just assume that the US dollar bear market is over and the great USD bull market will resume. The horizontal line connects at least 7 points, which can give the US dollar rally reason to pause or even run out of power!  I will be looking for a wave 2 top in Minor degree with the trend line being well within the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  Any wave 2 rally is not limited by any means to stop dead at the trend line above as %60-%70 percent rallies can and do take place. In short, the general guideline for previous 4th wave reversal might not mean anything.

Fighting against the bigger trend can take more time than normal, so we have to have patience as I believe that the US dollar still has a huge bear market to show us. This USD rally is keeping a lid on gold and silver prices and it could still force a temporary drop in the price of gold and gold stocks.

The Euro is also crashing, and our CAD seems to want to take a rest from getting beat up.  US Dollar COT reports do not show that both types of traders are in radical positions which gives the US dollar a bit of flexibility how high it can go.

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US Dollar Bullish Spike Review

I’m working this rally as a Minor degree correction, which is not finished just yet, but this USD rally  has more to go, as another wave 3-4 should happen.

We had several gaps open up on the way down, so I was pretty confident that the US dollar still had to rally and close those 2 gaps. Now on the way up, a huge gap open up, which will get closed in the future. We know that the USD will eventually decline again, and close this gap completely.

Gold and silver both took hits as well, while oil soared this morning in a massive bullish move at the intraday scale.  I have full confidence that the US dollar is not going to the moon, but this rally could remain bullish in the shorter term.

I usually do not post on Mondays that much as most of the real action happens during the rest of the week.  The full moon is still about 5 trading sessions away so we will find out with the Sunday session if any reversal may happen.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Update

The decline of the US dollar has been in progress just under 13 months and I’m sure there is more to go, but short term radical moves can kill any wave count pretty quick.  The 4th wave peak in Intermediate degree is still holding, and I see no short term moves that will dislodge it. This blog is all about locating, and confirming all 5 waves in Cycle degree, and EW5  is the only blog I know of that is doing this. I say this so all new readers fully understand that  smaller degree wave counting must come before all the big wave counts can be justified or even confirmed. This also applies to currencies like the US dollar.

At this time I don’t think we are in any Minor degree just yet as the switch would have to counter rally much further. In this case the USD could be finishing a Minuette degree 4th wave,  which could be followed by a 5th wave extension. International trade wars are in progress, but I think it’s more about Cyber Wars that all major nations are conducting. The US dollar is caught in the cross hairs as it seems that the USA infrastructure is also a prime target for these attacks.

We can get all sorts of rallies, but none of them will charge back into a bull market., at least until all the commercials are net long by a very wide margin.

We also have to be prepared that the US dollar can soar when stocks make a huge counter rally. COT reports come out on Fridays and if there is a radical change I will talk about it.

The Euro could also see a pop so when the US dollar moves many other currencies will also react.

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Quick US Dollar Intraday Update

This is just a quick update as this potential “C” wave could be running out of steam. I would still like to see the USD spike to a new higher high, but that has  a 50/50 chance of happening. 50/50 odds does nothing for me as I want better odds than just flipping any coin for heads or tails.

I will never call this type of a move as a “Truncation” because they can work as running patterns very well. Even any zigzag can come up short, so it’s not like it can never happen. Next week could destroy the top trend line, but otherwise the US dollar should  resume its crash course.

Sure, there will still be many counter rallies, but the only real counter rally is the one that sends the USD back into a multi year bull market. That will not happen until the US dollar bears become trapped again, much like they were in late 2008.  This time it won’t take 8 years or so, but should only last 3 years at best.

The US dollar index is being drawn down towards solar cycle #25, much like the USD was pulled down to the solar cycle #24.  From this 2008 low the US dollar exploded right along with solar cycle #24, so I expect a US Dollar bull market after solar cycle #25 as well.

There is a huge USD wedge that will be finished in a few years, and these wedges can produce powerful bull markets. The VIX is a prime example of what happens when a wedge comes to an end. 1937 to 1942 also produced a wedge, and that wedge spawned a multi decade bull market.

 

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

The US dollar roared to an early March top, then proceeded with a bearish phase that sure can fit into a flat. By about the 27th this correction was over and a bullish phase started which is still in progress.  In this case I would love to see the US dollar  soar and completely retrace the top, as that is what corrections are supposed to do.

From my perspective the US dollar bear market will resume until my contrarian indicators start to tell me otherwise.  The commercials are still net short the US dollar, but the speculators are getting close to a 1:1 net short/long ratio. I don’t want to see an even ratio, but I would like to see the speculators become extremely net short before I turn bullish on the US dollar.

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US Dollar Another Downside Breakout!

The US dollar is under pressure and it is right on the wire at the 89.400 price level. That’s only a hope skip and jump away from the Fibonacci 89 price level. I could paint you a very bearish US dollar picture just by flipping my trend lines at a very steep angle.  I’m sure there is more downside, but once it reaches the bottom trend line, we could be finishing a flat type correction.  This could ignite a “C” wave bullish run in the US dollar, and before you know it it will be over as we may be in a wave 2 rally.

The US dollar could fall well below my bottom trend line, but that would only make for a shorter “C” wave move.  It can still take all of next week for the USD to show its true colors in the short term.

Longer term the US is going down until everybody starts to hate the US dollar again. Besides that the commercial traders reports will become skewed. This time it’s the speculators that have joined in on the bearish side as they too have become net short by about a 1:1 ratio. Nothing to get excited about, but those numbers will shift and until the speculators have pushed their short positions to the extreme, we’re not going to get a huge bull market.

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US Dollar Intraday Gyrations Update

The US dollar had made the small move I was expecting, but I don’t think it’s over just yet. The US dollar could plunge back down to the 88.800 price level, then make another move to the upside which could be the end of a wave two rally in Minor degree. This  could still take all of March to finish off, but I’m sure the Fed announcement this coming week, will create some wild moves in both directions.

The speculators are very close to being even with their positions, so they will have to shift to a major net short position when the US dollar hits another major bottom.

The commercials made all the right moves last week and they are still in a net short position by about a 3:1 ratio. Once this corrective counter rally has played out, then this should also have a positive effect on gold.

Any Fed policy will not push the US dollar into a real bull market, no matter how many analysts may think that it can happen. This entire US dollar decline can take until the end of solar cycle #24, which is still a few years away. Every major science site that tracks the sun will be recording and reporting this event, so there will be no excuses that we didn’t see solar cycle #25 coming!

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Review


This year the US dollar is having problems getting past this 88-89 price level, which the bottom trend line highlights. The herd of conventional analysts is just starting to suspect that the US dollar is in a bear market. This is far too late, to be any use to the futures traders that know how to bet up or down. (Take long or short positions)

Conventional indicators in the highly leveraged commodities world doesn’t work, because if they did the majority would always be the winners. The fact is the majority can never win because it is mathematically impossible to do so.

The US dollar bull market that started in late 2008 displayed a choppy bull market that happens in false or bear market rallies. In a bear market rally, the market eventually must retrace its “entire” bullish move, which would not be completed until the US dollar travels below the 70 price level. This  would take a few more years or until solar cycle #25 starts up.

I want to see the US dollar slice through that bottom trend line, as we still don’t have a great looking spike. The US dollar has already entered the price territory of the 2009 and 2010 peaks, which effectively  kills any idea that a perfect impulse was in progress.

Still there is no real bottom that can offer price support to the US dollar  at this time. Every time analysts are looking for support, you have to ask, “support for what”?  Support for a huge US dollar bull market to suddenly materialize?  From my perspective, some key contrarian indicators have to be in place before the US dollar suddenly leaps into a bull market. None of those conditions exist just yet so until they do, the US dollar is doomed to decline even more.

It was a real challenge to call the 2008 bottom as we were far too early, but finally the US dollar started to soar, and our CAD and  Euro started to implode. When we constantly read about the bearish US dollar, chances are good that a strong reversal is being set-up.

Short term we could still see some gyrations, but long term the US dollar is still doomed to go lower.

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US Dollar: Resuming it’s Bearish Trend?

The US dollar has been in a bearish mood lately, but it can still create another corrective pattern as well. 89 is just one rounded Fibonacci  numbers I use, and the US dollar has turned around that number before. Commercial traders are still net short, so chances of jumping into a huge USD bullish phase are low on my list. Wild counter rallies do happen and they can’t always be spotted before they happen.

Any decline in the US dollar for “any” fundamental reasoning, will help keep the bullish pressure on gold.  At least until the entire US dollar bearish move has completed. There are no contrarian indicators showing up,  that say we are at the bottom of a US dollar bear market.  We might get another “C” wave attack, that can force another leg up with the US dollar, but then I would bet that the commercial traders positions would also have shifted dramatically.

In the last few days, the declining  pattern has been a diagonal pattern, which could run out of steam in the short term.

This could be very slow going as well, so I will not report every little wave made with the US dollar cash index. Futures are leveraged asset classes which produce very wild moves. Futures are played in both directions creating these wild swings, which Bitcoin traders can’t really do. The lack of  short players in Bitcoin reduces the wild moves, otherwise the Bitcoin waves would display insane moves in both directions.

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US Dollar Bear Market Returns?

The general direction of the US dollar is still down. It’s declining in a choppy fashion so we could be looking at a 5th wave diagonal decline.  The Euro jumped as the USD declined, but the Euro is a better looking rally. It’s not a beauty contest, but a war between bulls and bears.  Right now the bears seemed to be winning as the USD slowly keeps  grinding down.

The commercials switched to a net short position, so this helps in knowing that a super bull will not suddenly possess the US dollar holders.  I think the US dollar still has to fall well below that 88.200 price level, but it must also be finishing the big Minute degree decline.  Price alone will never give you the basis of a major reversal, but patterns do. Yes, I use price, but it’s always associated with the pattern I may be working. Price forecasts by the experts sure didn’t help to forecast the end of the US dollar bull market, so why should they know when the US dollar bear market is going to end?  The experts never saw the end of the 2008 US dollar bear market so why should they this time around?

Nobody was expecting a media trade war to be conducted at record peaks of the stock markets, but they did.  The big question is if the US dollar bull market that started in 2008 was actually a fake bull market. Bear market rallies always produce total retracements which in the US dollar case, would be well below the 70 price level. It will be a tough call once this US dollar 5 wave sequence is done, as a strong US dollar rally would have to happen.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Review

This US dollar index rally hit a brick wall on the 1st of March right on the same day we had the full moon. Last week the commercial traders were still in a net short position so the odds of a huge bullish move are reduced dramatically. A small set of 5 waves heading down, has already formed, but this should build into bigger counter rallies as the US dollar adds on another set of 5 waves in Subminuette degree.  What type of 5 wave sets is not clear, but any 5th wave can turn into diagonal waves.

If what we see has been a bearish rally, then the US dollar price level of 88.300 “must” get hit or breached. No US dollar triple bottom will hold once we get closer to that bottom trend line.

With president Trump conducting a trade war with new tariffs on steel and aluminium, should not be a surprise, as he made it pretty clear to all during his election campaigns what he was going to do. The last time a president conducted a trade war was with the June 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. The Smoot-Hawley Act came into existence a month after the 1930 “B” wave top in Cycle degree. 4-5 months for a Cycle degree bear market rally in stocks sure does not fit the timeline length but it fits sequentially very well.

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