When we go back to the 1980 era we see the USD hit a peak in 1985 before it imploded and started to end in 2008. All this is great but forgetting or ignoring the pattern the USD made to that 2008 bottom, is the key. Back in 2008 the world hated the US dollar as the majority were all trying to get out of the US dollar by any means neccesary, so investing in gold was the most popular theme. I had that 2007-2008 time period very well documented as the contrarians at that time also said tha the US dollar is going on a bullish run. Commercials were net long while the speculators (hedge funds), all were on the US dollar bearish side of the trade. One thing I can “Always” count on is that these hedge funds “Always” get in a trap. In 2008 the US dollar bears were in a bear trap, and there is only one way to get out of a trap and that is with a violent trend reversal.
The wedge is one of my most important tools that help to see big moves long before they happen. I though the USD was just in a big bear rally, but that $89 price level bottom early this year, changed my mind. I know that EWI has the USD as a bull market as well, so I would just be confirming them from a Cycle degree perspective.
The rise in the US dollar is “deflation”, by any sense of the word, which is the cause of the imploding price of gold/oil and many other commodity prices. World wide asset prices have inflated so much which is all coming to an end when all asset prices start to deflate again.
The US dollar is in a major bull market that will not end in my lifetime as Supercycle (SC) degree wave 3 is still ahead of us, (2041) and Grand Supercycle degree wave 3 is at least another 30-years past that. (2071) I have what I call in-house developed indicators which I talk about, but only my one on one clients get the detailed explanation. I have a “Wave Pool” which has a collection of 25 or so futures wave positions in it, with about another 25 ETF wave positions as well.
When some expert goes on a gold rant expecting $5000 gold then this forecast would instantly cause havoc with my wave counts when I’m wrong, but if my, “Wave Pool”, barely sends out a ripple, I know that this bullish gold forecast will never happen!
Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as the markets are always wrong. When the experts all start to sound the same, it always justifies taking the contrary position or point of view.
Any stock market herd of investors can never win, as markets will never allow the majority to take money from the same majroity of participants. The 80/20 Principle tells us that. (20% of the population owns 80% of all assets in the world)