Russian Ruble: From A Bear To A Bull?


The Russian Ruble hit a bottom about two weeks ago and has now started to turn up. We could have a bottom from the correction. This bottom could produce a “C” wave bullish phase, or even another 5 waves up in a Minor degree that would change this into a 5 wave sequence in Intermediate degree. The difference between the two may only be cleared up, if we get a very choppy bullish phase, instead of any smooth sequences.

Either way, if the correction is right, then the Ruble should breakout to new record highs. The commercials are net long, but not by very much.

I can’t maintain any intraday moves but will try to catch the top when it happens.

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Russian Ruble: Another Cycle Degree Bear Market? 2008-2018 Review

This is all the history I have of the Russian Ruble. A big location clue is the 2008 peak which matches the WTI oil Cycle degree peak in the same year.  I show a 5 wave decline in Intermediate degree, but this would no longer match oil.  I could switch this entire 5 wave decline into a single Primary degree zigzag decline, and then it would match oil very well.

I will create another wave count but turn it into a zigzag, the out-put when both  finishes would be drastically diffrent.  We should be able to tell if an impulse has started or another choppy rally. A choppy rally would throw up a red flag that another big bearish rally is in effect. In both wave counts, the present Intermediate degree wave 3-4 would not change. The 4th wave rally may not be completed just yet, so this would also have to clear up some more.

Every bear market rally gets retraced, so if this 4th wave rally position is true, then a new record low in the Russian Ruble will happen. I guess with all the bullish news out about oil shouldn’t the Ruble be soaring as well? Maybe it’s the Ruble that is telling us that oil is going to crash.

Commercials are net short the Russian Ruble, while the speculators are net long. Both parties can’t be right folks! Speculators are the ones chasing the bull market, and they are the first ones to get into a trap as well. Until these numbers start to switch, I have a bearish outlook for the rest of the year.

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Russian Ruble (CME) A look At the Weekly Chart.



From the big picture point of view, it is hard to get enough data on the Russian Ruble (RUB) to work out a good wave count. I don’t have the time to devote to  the intraday charts, but the occasional look at the Ruble is warranted.  It would be pure luck if the Ruble had the same crash bottom as oil and gold.  These contracts are still very thinly traded, so I’m sure the RUB will present a unique challenge in the long run. 

Since the start of 2016 we have what looks like a pretty good impulse, with a triangle 4th wave as well.  Any triangle always points to at least one degree higher, of a degree change to come, which could be an”A” wave in Minor degree.   The commercials are very heavy net short the Ruble, by a ratio of about 3:1, but that may not mean anything at this time. We have to wait and see which group will have the best track record, and that could take years of watching.  

It is pretty hard to do more damage to the Ruble as it seems to follow the oil phases like our CAD seems to do. 

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