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Category Archives: Euro

Euro Daily Chart: Death Cross Review!

 

This is the Euro daily chart which had its last major peak February, 16th, 2018 at the 1.22 price level. Since then the Euro is showing its bearish side as the Euro slides and creates a Death Cross as well. A Death Cross is about as bearish of a situation that we can run into, but most analysts ignore them.

On the weekly chart settings, the Euro is sitting close to the 200-day MA and has dropped below it a bit.

I’m sure analysts will not be screaming, “20%”, bear market territory anytime soon, because the Euro bear market started back in 2008, about 10 years ago. 2008 was also the oil bubble peak!

Any Euro wave count is basically an inverted version of the USD, and early this morning Euro support crumbled sending the Euro to a new bearish low. I will be the last guy to tell you where support is because you also have to ask support for what? Is the Euro going to pull off a miracle turning on some bullish news flash? News can give us short-term moves, but it takes much more than just some fundamental news report to turn a trend.

Trying to stop a trend with a news release is like trying to stop a semi truck by jumping in front of it with a big flash card! The COT report below shows little interest in building long positions on the commercial hedger’s side. The 1.03 price level can give us support, but that may just be the 4th wave support which I’m looking for.

Remember, all those gold bull investors foaming at the mouth? They need the Euro to sail north, not south like it has been doing.

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Euro Weekly Chart Bearish Update

 

When we look at a longer-term weekly Euro chart, I see a bearish trend still bouncing off two parallel trend lines. My main change is that I switched back to making the 2018 peak the 4th wave in Intermediate degree.  The Euro is inside the US dollar basket, and you can’t separate the Euro from the US dollar. The Euro has been “melting” down since the 2008 peak so why should it suddenly stop its bearish trend, and turn and fly north? Many countries under the Euro have serious issues as now they start to blame everyone and anyone for their troubles.

The Euro is just down 1/3 of the wave from the top trend line, which I call “no man’s land”. It may take a few more years, but the Euro should hit a new record low by 2022.

Today is also the 1987 stock market crash anniversary date, 31 years ago.  2008 was a major Cycle degree wave 4 peak, which matched the crude oil top as well. 2008 was also the start of solar cycle #24. There were two solar cycle peaks, in 2011 and a secondary peak in 2014. Each time the Euro repelled to the downside from these solar cycle peaks, but in the next few years, solar cycle #24 is coming to an end! My bet is that the Euro will repel to the upside along with solar cycle #25. Analysts will come up with all sorts of different reasons why the Euro goes up and down.

You read 5 Euro analysts updates, you can find a different fundamental reason as well. For gold investors, they need the Euro to soar, which in turn should crash the US dollar. This is not happening as the US dollar keeps displaying its bullish behavior.

On the smaller scale, the Euro and the US dollar both displayed a Minute degree triangle 4th wave, so that is also an indicator that I must up my degree level by a minimum of 1 degree, but many times there are two-degree level changes that have to be made.

 

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Euro Daily Chart Bearish To The Bone?

 

The Euro repelled to the downside after  3-4 attempts at breaking out and is now threatening support. What I see is a potential triangle inside a 4th wave, which is also a warning that a bigger degree bottom is coming. I brought back my  Euro bearish wave counts, and if they are true then that does not bode well for the metals and gold stock ETFs that I cover.  Wishing that Gold will soar, has no hope of happening just yet because the Euro moves inversely to the US dollar.  What all this means, is that the Euro bear market is far from finished, and should hit new bear market lows. That may happen this year, as we have a lot of empty space below the present positions. It’s not completely empty space, as it contains more Euro futures stop-loss sell orders that we can count. It also contains any futures options positions that can expire on any Friday.

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Euro Weekly Chart Review

 

Since 2008 the Euro has been in a decline or bear market with wild counter-rallies thrown in to keep us all confused, in what the real direction of the Euro is.

The Euro makes up about 57.6% of the US dollar basket, so there is no chance that the Euro will wander in some direction other than inversely to the US dollar. I’m working a  Primary degree diagonal wave 1 with the USD,  but this would be inversed when we look at the Euro. The Euro will not separate itself from gold as the Euro bull market and gold sync up extremely well.

I’m a bit suspicious with my short-term wave positions as we would need a bullish phase to complete wave 2 up in Primary degree. If the bottom has completed, then the Euro should push higher, creating new bullish highs in the process. We have 3 months for this market to give us a clear, “make or break” type of move.

 

 

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Euro Daily Chart Bullish Update.

 

The Euro makes up about 59% of the US dollar index, and runs inversely to the USD all the time. It’s impossible for the US dollar to implode without the Euro going the opposite way. Short-term in the next year or so the Euro should rally which I think is a wave 2 rally. Last week many COT reports changed dramatically which is a sign that “shit” is about to hit the fan!

Sure the Euro can make some wild corrections but I will no longer be bearish on the Euro until I see the impending bullish phase start to get real tired! Bulls can only run so long and then they get tired and must rest. The Euro bear market is far from finished, so the next 5 waves up will end and then die again.  On a weekly chart we are still in a Golden Cross position so that also helps make a strong bullish case. I hate to miss any 5 wave run in Minor degree, but GDX will provide the same type of a 5 wave move.

The COT reports are not ideal but COT positions in other inverse related futures do. The Euro will also join the Cycle degree 4th wave club, but it’s 4th wave peak was in April of 2008, along with oil.

In 1985 the Euro also hit a wave 3 bottom in Cycle degree. 1985 is a real popular year as it stands out like a sore thumb, so there can never be an argument. The only argument or disagreement you will find is between all the wave analysts trying figure out what wave position it really is. We can’t wait for them folks as I already have mapped it all under Cycle degree guidelines, and it’s the readers choice which he wants to waste his time with in following. SC, GSC, and Submillennium degree wave 3 markets are far into the future as that is what Cycle degree forecasting is all about.

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Euro Weekly Chart Bear Market Update.

 

The Euro is in the US dollar basket so when the US dollar is bullish the Euro will turn bearish. Sure we had a great run in 2017, and gold responded. The problem is, if the Euro is in a bear market rally, then a complete retracement of this bullish phase will happen. The hedge funds are still very bullish with the Euro, but the commercials are building up their short positions. This doesn’t get me all warm and fuzzy to call a super Euro bull market just because of the 2017 rally. There is an expanded pattern in this 4th wave, just like there is in the US dollar.

Even as other COT reports favored gold just recently, the Euro postions do not come close. The hedge funds have to switch to net short postions, while the commerials build up their long positions.

The Death Cross in the Euro daily chart has already happened, with the weekly chart Death Cross still to happen. Right now there is a toss-up if  Death Crosss have power over COT reports. I hope to have a better understanding of this by the end of the year. So far Death Cross over COT reports rule with the Euro!

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Euro Daily Chart Bear Market Review.

 

It looks like the Euro is resuming its bearish trend where no support will hold except for a short term basis. We also had the Euro Death Cross at the Euro price level of 1.200 and we still have the Euro weekly Death Cross ahead of us. The Euro bearish trend is much bigger than what the majority think. Gold needs for the Euro to soar and not head south, but I see no signs that this will happen any time soon. Even the hedge funds and commercials have net short positions on the Euro which definitely confirms that the Euro is not going to keep heading north. A 4:1 net short ratio would be at the extreme range and we are not even close to that just now.

Last weeks Market Vane report still has far too many bulls present so even that does not confirm a major bull market in the Euro will happen.

The speculators or hedge funds always get into one trap or another, but it must be a far bigger bear trap than what we presently have. What power that any Death Cross has over the COT reports remains to be seen, and I’m watching this on a regular basis. This may take the rest of 2018 to play out but then 2019 could be very bullish for this Euro cash futures contract.  Again, if the Euro is in a bigger bear market, then complete retracement of the entire 4th wave rally will happen as the Euro must eventually slice through the bottom trend line. as well.

 

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Euro Daily Chart Update.

 

The Euro is going the opposite direction from the US dollar, but with this chart we had a bit of a rally in the last 10-11 trading days. Last weeks COT report show that the speculators (hedge funds) and the commercial traders are both in a net short positions on the Euro. Not by that much but they are both definitely net short at this time. This does not support a big bullish move in the Euro which gold investors must get to keep the gold bullish dream alive.

The Death Cross on this daily chart has already happened, with the weekly chart Death Cross still ahead of us.  Dreaming of a mythical Euro bull market sitting on top of an impending weekly chart Death Cross, is not my idea of a bullish position I would take.

Market Vane (MV) report had about 48% bulls present in Tuesday’s report, which would still need to shrink as bulls keep disappearing! Any reading below 10% gives lots of room for a large group of Euro bulls to come back in.

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Euro 2001-2018 Review

Just like the US dollar is in a huge bull market so is the Euro as it makes up about 59% of the USD basket. Gold investors that think another huge leg up in gold is going to happen are ignoring the fact that the Euro was just in a bear market rally and new record lows will happen, by this fall. This would land us on a Primary degree wave 3, followed by yet another bear market rally before we bottom at a Supercycle degree “A” wave bottom sometime by 2041 or three years sooner. The Euro peak matches oils peak and not gold, so we have to be aware of this 3 year difference.  My last weeks Market Vane report only shows 46% bulls present which is still far from any extreme I may be expecting. Even gold is about the same so it’s not just one thing I rely on. All my futures wave counts are in what I call, “The Wave Pool”, which are all in-house created indicators that only a few one on one people get to see in any detail.  I also built a “Ratio Pool” and a “50-200-day MA Pool”.

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Euro Weekly Chart: Death Cross Update

I have made changes with some of my locations, but in the end the same wave 3-4 in Intermediate degree stays the same. Any wave 4 counter rally is a bear market rally and to confirm that, the Euro will eventually hit a new record low. It is the US dollar that turned into a safe haven currency, which will send the USD soaring in a massive bull market that only the deflationists may understand.EWI forecast of a deflationary crash is coming true and his bullish US dollar is also coming true.

The sad part about it is that this planet is going to suffer a massive deflationary presures the likes no one alive has every witnessed. Every single asset class including gold will suffer severe price shocks in the next 3 or so years that will boggle our minds.  I will not spend my time counting all the little intraday waves as I’m not a day traders and never will be. All I need is three degree levels as they spawn huge moves where someone can make some decent money on.

Look back up and we can see our first Death Cross and the results of this DC. I’d say without a doubt 2014 would have been an excellent short bet  for those paying attention.

Once the EURO soared again in 2017 it took a long time for the Golden Cross to form, but this is always the case. On the Euro daily chart the Euro Death Cross has already happened and now on this weekly chart another Death Cross is ahead of us. Our CAD is in the same leaking boat and so the EU zone is not the only currnecy that’s going to take a hit.

The commercials are not all that distorted, and my Market Vane report still needs to get rid of more Euro bulls, so much more downside to the Euro should happen.

We are in the same situation as the top of 2008, when every asset class will fail except for the US dollar. In 2008 the USD soared as everything crashed. This was a brief intense 8 month horror show, but this time we could end up with a 2 year decline doing the same thing. The world is in a massive real estate bubble never before seen in history, and those rich people that think that real estate prices are going to keep flying at 10% a year are going to get shocked, when no more buyers show up!

In Canada, our real estate bubble has already burst, and it will get much worse in the long run.  Nobody is talking about the world fertility crash, which shocked me the first time I researched it. Massive deflation is in our future, not massive inflation. As usual the US FED is still fighting inflation making matters far worse.

Printing money will never solve this problem as it is part of a much bigger 30 year cycle and even 100 year cycle. Little Iceland took down the entire world in 2007-2008, so it will not take much for any other country to implode as well. Can gold crash to below $800? You bet it can, as that will be just the opening shot. Facebook is another example in what’s coming, and all those gold investors will get the shock of their lives once gold breaks that $1047 price level. I have a silver 10 ounce coin bet on it and once it crosses this red line, my gold cycles consulting fees will explode. No money manger will get to see my gold cycles research unless they drop a pure silver 10-Troy ounce coin in my hand first, and that is only for a 2-3 hour session!

 

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Euro Monthly Chart Death Cross Location!

At this time my Cycle degree wave 3 peak may be questionable  if that location can remain as I may have to switch the Euro to a 4th wave top in Cycle degree. I need time to think on that but I sell have lots of time to think on it some more. The entire idea of a 5 wave decline in Primary degree doesn’t need to get changed just yet, for any reason.

In other words don’t fret if I talk about a big degree change in the Euro as it would have little impact on any present wave count that needs to get done. How this futures cash chart reacts and looks like in the Forex world, it may not react the same. This Euro chart is still bearish because of the 4th wave rally is just another bear market rally and “B” wave bottom might get completely retraced by the end of this year.

It now doesn’t take Elliott Wave rocket science anymore to figure out that the Euro is in deep trouble. What I say about the Euro is inversely related back to the US dollar. If the Euro is in a bear market then the USD is still in a bull market. This fact can not be undone as the Euro is not going to get kicked out of the US dollar basket any time soon.

The Death Cross on this Euro monthly chart, has past but I don’t think I have to remind readers anymore how bearish these Death Cross indicators are, as the 50-day MA line is going to lead the Euro down.  Hey, our CAD is going to implode right along with you guys so don’t think we are in some kind of bastion of safety. Canada is in serious trouble when all the real estate markets implode. This whole structure of waves looks like it is up too high, and you are right! These are diagonal waves to were the final count down can be a very long extension that will just boggle the mind.

All those gold investors will get burnt in the process because they are waiting for the Euro and our CAD to soar. You can wait a long time for that as every bear market rally retraces itself and heads to a new low. How many major bullish phases did the Euro have and each one completely retraced itself.  Our present Euro is  in another bear market rally so much more downside pain will come.

The run of Euro holders into the dollar continues as the US dollar becomes safe-haven as the world currencies implode.  A rising dollar is deflationary  and this in turn kills gold as an investment asset. There is a time to hold but there is also a time to become a trader as violent swings occur where investors get shredded becuase they stayed invested to long.  This world is not safe to Buy& Hold anymore as it is a Buy-Low sell high world that can generate better returns if you know how to bet the markets in either direction.  Having the ability and courage to go short at specific times always allows you to seek opportunities and major reversals. I will focus on the gold sectors as that is what I understand as I have experienced catching the falling GDX in 2008. Wild and moving markets is where I feel comfortable with as the trading opportunities are going to be fantastic if we are on the ball and are prepared at all times.

Commercials are still net short the Euro but not at any real extreme just yet.

 

 

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Euro Daily Chart: Return Of The Bear?

I believe that the Euro finished a “C” wave bull market, charging up to a 4th wave peak in Intermediate degree. To confirm that this Euro peak was just a bear market rally then the Euro has to retrace everything, back to the point of orgin. This would be below my black line.   There may still be some counter rally moves, but eventually the Euro will implode. Our CAD will implode as well, so we  are in the same sinking ship, so to speak. We also finished a Death Cross which most investors ignore, or don’t even know about. We have tons of tools in our tool box, to draw every conceivable indicator we want,  which I give value in using the 50-200-day MA to confirm my wave counts with. After a while we won’t need them, and we can put them back in the box for many months.

Gold bugs need the Euro to go up, to support their bullish claims. They also need for the Canadian dollar to soar, but we know that’s not going to happen any time soon. I have to double check on a monthly chart, but we should end on a wave 3 in Primary degree. This move could be very violent and fast so we have to plan for a reversal once it sets up.

Idealy I want the US Dollar to break a new record high as well, even just for a second!

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Euro Weekly Chart: Bear Market Impending Death Cross

The majority willl never know what a bear market rally is, as the bulls only care that it keeps going up.  All trends must come to an end which the Euro has started to do a month ago. To help the gold  bugs to be on the right side, they need the Euro to go up, not down.  Arguing about if the Euro is on a big bullish path or on a much larger bearish path is futile because the markets are “Always Right” It’s our opinions or premises that are always wrong.

Bear markets always retrace their entire bullish move from where it started or originated from. That would be close to the bottom wedge line.  When that happens then the Euro has confirmed that  it’s present bull market was nothing but a fake. Since the 2008 peak the Euro has done this a minimum of 3 times, and is set to do it again.  The anticipated Death Cross (DC) on this Euro weekly chart is next in line but it may take well over 50 days for us to find out.

On the daily chart the Euro Death Cross has already been hit so I know more bearish downside is still to come. Rats are jumping ship and heading over to a new Titanic called the US dollar .  The US dollar is acting out its safe-haven status which contains two Golden Crosses already. Counting the crossings is the key as they will alternate in a DC, GC, DC fashion. There was a huge spread between the 50 and 200 day lines. The 50 day average has come up and sliced through the 200 day line creating a Golden Cross.

What should come next on this weekly chart is the dreaded Death Cross. It should speed up the Euro decline, with our Canadian dollar being on the same path.  After the Euro tanks to new lows, I expect another long counter rally which will also end up being a Euro bull trap. Spotting the Golden Cross bull trap is pretty obvious at this point, but in the end it may take into the fall or March 2019 to play out.

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Euro Weekly Chart Bear Market Update

 

Many may think that the Euro has nothing to do with the price of gold, but I think they are totally wrong with this type of thinking. Just go back to the 2011 Euro peak, match it up to the 2011 gold peak, and we have some very good correlation.  The Euro had no problem in joining the bear party at that time, but recently the experts were very bullish on the Euro as well.  When we look at the big trend line, nothing suggests a big Euro bull market is coming.  Participants don’t know what a bear market rally is, as they get excited by any rally at all.

A bear market rally always retraces its entire bullish sequence, from it’s point of orgin.  It only needs to do this by the slimmest of margins to turn the bull market, into just another bear market rally.

If we look back up we can count 4 bear market rallies that have all been retraced, trapping all the bulls each time. Ignoring this large trend line is a huge mistake, which I don’t like to get trapped in.

I don’t think any serious trader wants to get caught in a big bull trap, but the speculators have a natural knack for this kind of a trap. Elliott wave experts have a bullish mood towards gold, but the Euro and the USD refuses to play ball. Overlapping declining waves are diagonal wave patterns which are present in all commodities. Even my 4th wave rally has dipped into wave 2 in Intermediate degree, and worse yet, it also dipped into wave 2 in Primary degree.

If you think that the Euro cannot sink dramatically, then just look at the year long decline in 2014. This also matched the crude oil and gold crashes. It’s hard to except the idea to be bearish, when the herd is bullish, but this is what the EWP is supposed to be good for. It might take the rest of the year, but when this Euro breaks to a new record lows, we should expect another massive bullish phase. This will also be another big bear market rally. To say that gold and oil are going to soar with increasing trade war tensions, are ignoring the historical facts. A recession is coming and it’s only a matter of time before the greater “herd” see it as well. When a large part of the herd suddenly realize, or see the same thing, then usually a mini panic ensues.

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The Euro Takes A Beating!

This morning the Euro spiked up and then rapidly reverse and then plunged. That would be a surprise if we were very bullish on the Euro already. I have been bearish on the Euro for sometime already so this dip is no real surprise. To confirm that the Euro rally was just another fake, it would have to retrace the entire May bottom.  We see bear market rallies all the time at the smaller degree levels, but happens at a smaller scale, also happens on the bigger degree scales.

The US dollar also reacted, so it’s not an isolated Euro event.  I doubt that Italy has enough clout to bring the Euro down, but the analysts are determined to give you a reason for the decline if it’s right or not!  The world would end if analysts down find you a reason for every little price move in any direction.   I won’t be satisfied until that May 29th low is completely retraced.

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Euro Intraday Rally Update

Short term the Euro could still make a higher high, but longer term it should resume its bigger bearish trend. I would be a lot more bullish on the Euro if it were not for the commercial traders short positions. I kept this Euro wave count like my previous Euro posting, but the Euro may not push to the next higher high. The Euro may turn south sooner than we think and resume its bearish trend.

With all the risk factors increasing around the world we would expect the gold price to soar, but in order for gold to soar the Euro needs to soar as well.  Even our CAD is getting beat up and is still pointing south,  so I don’t see the two main inverse currencies supporting a big gold bullish move at this time.

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Euro Intraday Rally Update

The Euro has been in a rally but there still may be one upside move left to go, before it resumes it’s bearish trend. I have just started a wave 1-2 count in Minute degree, which would extend wave 3 in Minor degree.  The Euro could keep right on heading south from here,  just like the US dollar may have one more small leg down, before it also starts to turn back into it’s bullish trend. Even with this Euro rally and US dollar decline, gold has moved little. Once the Euro resumes it’s bearish trend then I can see gold head south as well.   Commercials are still net short the Euro so until that changes, I will remain bearish on the Euro.

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Euro Weekly Chart Bear Market Update

At this time nothing has really forced a radically new wave count as the bearish mood continues. The top trend line now had a third peak we can use and so far the Euro does not look like it wants to turn and soar to the moon. They majority are saying that gold and the Euro will soar, but the exact opposite is what is happening.  Since the 2015 the Euro has developped and expanded pattern followed in 2017 with a strong looking impulse.

The same bear market rally logic applies to the Euro as well. It to must completley retrace it’s 2017 bullish move to confirm that a bear market rally has occured. The Euro runs inversely to the US dollar, so the Euro must go up for gold to follow. This has not happened as the Euro is heading south instead. We are in a small correction at this time and there still may be more to go, but the Euro will resume it’s downward trend.

Commercials have bearish Euro positions, so until that changes this Euro bearish phase is still in effect.

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The Euro Keeps On Crashing: Daily Chart Update.

The Euro counter rally did not last very long at all. We will see if this impulse decline has more power to it than most analysts are expecting. The 6 currencies that are inside the US dollar basket act inversley to the US dollar with this Euro being one of them. It also all realates back to gold as gold and the Euro have traveled together many times in the past.  The bullish phase in 2017  was a “C” wave bull market with 5 waves in Minute degree.  At 1.16 the Euro can put up some resistance to the decline but this should only be a temporary resting spot as everyone screams, “Support”.

Price support means little, but wave pattern support is everything, from my Cycle degree perspective.  I may have to adjust the wave count decline, as I’m starting this run as a wave 3 extension. We have an open gap below and this should get hit in this bearish decline.  Until the Euro decline has completely played out, gold will keep heading south. Gold has crashed $70 already and it’s not finished.  I’m sure the COT reports still show the commercials in a Euro short position, and until that starts to shift dramatically the Euro will keep declining. Most investors have no clue what the difference is between a real bull market and a bear market rally. “Every” bear market rally retraces itself by 100%. It’s the big bear market rallies in Primary and Intermedeate degree that fool us the most.

The Euro started it’s bear market in 2008 right along with oil, with both ending on Cycle degree wave 3 peaks. This makes it close to a 10 year bear market and we’re still counting, as “every” rally in the Euro has been completley retraced.

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Euro Daily Chart Bearish Phase Update

The Euro bullish phase came to a dead stop right in a long term bearish trend line that has been going on since the 2008 peak. That 2008 peak matched other commodity peaks along with oil. The only change I’m making is in this bearish phase is to drop down by one degree. People may think it’s funny that I’m concerned with being out by one degree.You may think differently if  only one degree can put you off by 60% or more. This the same as the  Fibonacci number of “.618” which separates each degree level. One degree difference means finding a huge bear market bottom and missing the entire bull market that will follow.  With the 15 degree levels that we deal with, being out one degree is huge.

I’m starting a Minute degree run, which should end up at a wave 1 bottom in Minor degree. For many years gold ran along with the Euro as the US dollar imploded, so it is pretty hard for me to swallow the gold bull market at this time. Oil is also at an extreme so the Euro and oil can crash together, as they sure share that same 2008 date!

A very strong commercial short positions are still on which should slowly start to reverse over the next bearish phase. The Euro is in the US dollar basket, so some of the currencies in this basket, is what we use to watch for reversals.

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Euro Weekly Chart: Impending Bull Or Bear Market?

I had called for just a correction in a bullish phase, but the small April pattern looks very impulse to the downside already. The US dollar is doing the same thing, except it is heading in the opposite direction. We now have 3 huge peaks to connect,  all showing a downward bias. We had two huge H&S patterns which both proved to be very bearish as the right shoulder refused to push higher. It is obvious that the Euro is in a bear market, but putting a wave count to it, is not so obvious. One main reason is that it’s a diagonal decline, where wave patterns can and do go wild with regularity.

The Euro would not necessarily need another zigzag, but we would definitely have to keep a look out  for a wandering impulse. The previous 4th wave low I have will not hold the Euro as this dip could be much larger than we think.

This picture looks very bearish as it sits right now, and we might have a Minute degree start already.  A Minute degree or Minor degree start, that does not fit a bigger bullish move, instantly forces a review.

Ideally, there should be little to no lag time in forcing us to go back to find a better fit.  Yes, I’m guilty of cosmetic wave counting at times, but we always pay for that in the long run, by missing bear or bull markets. I don’t like to miss any bull or bear market as it reverberates across all asset classes, especially gold!

The faster we recognize the fact that we are wrong or in the wrong position, the faster we will come up with a better fitting wave count. There is a very high probability that the Euro has already completed a Cycle degree wave 3 top in 2008 which matches the crude oil peak of 2008. Oil also fits well with a wave 3 in Cycle degree. Gold is off by about 3 years, but we should find more Cycle degree wave three peaks as time goes on. I will work on a small list of Cycle degree peaks in the commodities I cover, but it will not be all of them as I don’t have time to cover fringe commodities.

The dark red lines show short positions by the commercials, which makes chasing bullish wave counts a rather futile effort.

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Euro Daily Chart Crash Update

The Euro acts inversely to the US dollar, most of the time but not always. At this time the Euro is acting the opposite way of the USD which is pretty normal.

If the Euro still has a big up cycle left, then this decline will come to a halt and then reverse again. The first horizontal line is the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, but in a wave 2 decline, it does not have to make a picture perfect landing. It can do a belly flop at much lower prices.  For a wave 2, I like to see a 60-70% retracement as that sure would get the Euro bears excited.

We do have some sideways action that already suggests a correction is going to take place. I looked at the COT report and the commercials were skewed to the short side, and the speculators are still skewed to the long side. Two completely different sets of opinions!  We should understand that the speculators are the trend chasers. They will always get into a trap, be it a bull or a bear trap.

The media spouts what the speculators are doing, as they think that the speculator long positions is the smart money.

Be prepared that the Euro has more downside to go,  as this decline is not deep or long enough to have completed a wave 2 in Minor degree.

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March, 8, 2018 Euro Intraday Correction Update

The Euro bullish phase is still in tack, but it must push higher to confirm it.  Another 5 waves up in Subminuette degree will do it, but we need lots of patience to wait out any extensions that may still come. 5th waves are notorious for extending in commodity charts, and may even start out as a diagonal pattern. Commercials are net short with this futures chart, so a screaming sustained bull move is highly unlikely. We would need a strong correction like a wave 2 in Minor degree, but we are still far away from that at this time.

I would love to see a 4th wave triangle first, then I would change my outlook after the “thrust” has completed. These “thrusts” can also be short and sweet and then turn early very quickly. We have a major double top, that the Euro has to break through, and that may not happen until we get closer to the end of the month.

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Euro Intraday Bull Market Update

Our February Euro peak sure can fit into a triangle. Triangles have been on the rare side, but I have more than just one asset class that a triangle has formed. A triangle eventually spells doom once the “thrust” has played out. In this case I need 5 waves up in Subminuette degree. That could take another full month to play out, and anything less than a new bullish breakout would be unacceptable from my perspective.

The Euro is in the US dollar basket, but many times it acts inversely to the US dollar. As long as the US dollar still has downward potential, then this Euro futures chart can still soar. Eventually this 5 wave run could end up at a wave 1 in Minor degree, followed by another Euro crash/correction.  Gold should benefit from all this turmoil in the markets so the gold bull market is not dead just yet.

Today’s COT report will tell us more in what the commercial traders have done.

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Euro Intraday Bearish Phase Update

Since the January bottom the Euro has made a great 5 wave run.  This morning the Euro broke that 1.22 price level, which could have been a base for another small run of 5 waves.  The Euro is in the US dollar basket, which runs inversely to the US dollar. The US dollar basket is destined to be changed as some currencies will be removed but other main trading partner currencies will be added.  The changes in the US dollar basket are just opinions right now, but it will be interesting to see if my big US dollar wave count will be threatened.

Besides the potential for a wave 1 peak in Minor degree, we could be at an “A” wave in Minor degree just as easily. It could mean a 60-80% wave 2 correction can happen, and it won’t stop at the obvious previous 4th wave in Minute degree. Commercials are net short the Euro, and until that changes dramatically, the chance of a super Euro bull run may just be a pipe dream.

Still, we need to keep our options open, as no wave count is etched in stone. Only the idealized charts are etched in stone.  😀

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Euro Daily Chart Update

What sure looks like a good impulse run seems to have come to a screeching halt. Once it breaks the 1.22 price level, it would trash another small run higher.  At the same time the US dollar also seems to have a shortened 5th wave and it is still soaring as I post.

The commercial traders are net short the Euro so until that situation switches, the Euro could make a deep plunge. If a wave 1 in Minor degree has completed, will the Euro fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree? The Euro may not stop at the 4th wave above because first waves can crash 61% of the entire net move. This could send the Euro down to the 1.12 price range before it’s ready to turn again.

On top of that we must see a decent physically sized correction, completing as well.  What could be worse yet, is if this entire rally, was a “C” wave bull market.

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Euro Bull Market Daily Chart Update

Since the beginning of 2017 the Euro has been in a bullish phase, that has been running inversely to the US dollar. I think a correction is completed, which means another 5th leg up in Minuette degree,  should play out. 5th waves are notorious for extending so we don’t want to call an end to it too early.

Once this set of 5 waves in Minute degree has played out, then the Euro could suffer another serious setback (correction) but the final 5 waves up in Minor degree should still happen.

The commercials are net short already which is the smart money.  The non-commercials or speculators, is the dumb money, which is the group that the mainstream analysts always talk about.   The speculators are the ones that always chase the trend as the commercials never do chase the trend, as they do the opposite. When the commercial traders are overwhelming net short then the bull market in the Euro will come to an end.

Right now the speculators are chasing this Euro bull market and they have about a net 2:1 long Euro positions. What they call smart money is already painting themselves into a corner, as they build themselves into a bull trap.

This will not happen instantly as it takes a long time for these net long positions to develop.

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Euro Bull Market Review

I spent a couple of hours looking back to 1985 which was a major Deutschmark crash bottom, around the time that the cold war ended and the 1989 Berlin Wall crashed. Shortly after the DM crashed it started to soar again. The DM then crashed once more ending in 1999-2000 at about the 85 cent price level. From the peak in 2008 the Euro crashed until early 2017. From this ugly bottom the Euro has enjoyed a bullish phase now starting its second year. In 2016 I knew a bullish phase was coming, but hell if I could find a decent wave count that I could publish.

Our present bull market sure looks like a high quality set of impulse waves, which are pointers to a new trend that should keep on compounding. Provided it’s not part of a “C” wave bull market. If the Euro was part of a “C” wave bull market, then this pattern would contain far more diagonal wave structures.

So far there are only a few diagonal wave structures that have developed in their proper locations. The Euro would need to show us 5 waves up in Minor degree, but we’re still working the first 5 waves in Minute degree. Wave 1 in Minor degree could still be a few months  away, after which we could see a horrific wave 2 Euro crash. If the Euro crashes, then the US dollar will rally, sending gold into a major correction as well.

We have a November 2017 Euro bottom, ($1.05 US) so if this wave 2 Euro crash is coming then, this is where we should look for major support and a reversal. The Euro should then transform into wave 3 in Minor degree. Once wave 2 in Minor degree has completed then I will look for three sets of 1-2 waves, which would be an extended wave 3. I “always” start off counting, as if  wave three is going to extend, but will dump it as soon as they don’t materialize.

From my perspective,  Elliott Wave analysis is all about the process of constantly trying to eliminate 4 out of the 5 simple wave patterns we work with. Of course, this is all specific to the degree that we think we are working in. 99.9999% 🙄  of the time we’re not in the degree that we think we’re in.

Even now, the commercials are already net short the Euro with the spread getting wider. The Euro is in the US dollar basket, so all the other currencies that run inverse to the US dollar should also have major reversals. The speculators are betting the exact opposite way, as they are net long by more than a 2:1 ratio.  Sooner or later the speculators will get themselves into a “big”  bull trap.

This potential wave count is very speculative, but the only way to help confirm it, is by running it. I will still need to tweak this wave count all the time, as I’m sure we will get a few more surprise extensions yet. At about the $1.27- $1.28 price range, we could run into some serious resistance, so we still have some upside room left.

This would also kill my”E” wave decline that I have with the US dollar wave count, so this wave count will be doing double duty. I’m still early on this and I don’t expect it to happen in what’s left of January.

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Euro Daily Chart Bull Market Review

Since the very late 2016 bottom the Euro has exploded, and for now I’m using a “D” wave bottom.  What we do have seems to be a good looking impulse, so I will go with that for now.   We could hear about reports that the Euro is done for, but this impulse is not finished as we would still need wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree  to develop.

The Euro is still a bit away from the long term bear market trend line, so that still gives the Euro some bullish room to move.  When the 5th wave starts to finish, then we have to wake up and figure out if it was all just a fake bull run, and that any anticipated “E” wave would never happen.

The commercial traders are all net short the Euro but not by any extreme just yet. If their short positions increase consistently then this would start to send a warning for a strong reversal.

Down at the 1.07 price level, we have a big gap waiting around to get filled. You’ll  have to wait much longer as I don’t think the Euro is going anywhere near that gap until all 5 waves in Minor degree have played out.

This should be just a correction, but it may still need to last longer and travel deeper before another leg up commences.

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Euro Bear Market Daily Chart Review

 

 

For close to 21 months the Euro has been going sideways with some death defying crashes thrown in to keep us all guessing.  I look at the euro as a big zigzag drop, and this sideways pattern is just a wave 3-4 still playing out. 

From the May 2016 top, the Euro has declined in one ugly set of waves heading down.  These are not impulse waves, as they don’t even come close, even though I have no critical overlapping.

There may be more downside to come in the short term, but longer term we could see the Euro rally if the US dollar starts on a huge decline. This wave is also very short but wave 1-2 and there are evenly extended. When two waves are extended then the last 5th wave has to be the shorter one. This sure seems to be the case at this time. The commercials have been net long for a long time, but this trend chasing speculators, have been net short for just as long. They both can’t be right and in my experience it is more important what the commercial traders do, than what the emotional trend chasers and money managers are doing. The majority of the time the mass media reports to us, what the trend chasers are doing.  Emotional analysts reporting on emotional speculators, is not what we can base any investment ideas on. 

The Euro is just the flip side of the US dollar, so unless some huge diverging action is about to happen, I can see that the Euro has to go up, while the USD declines.  

 

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