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Category Archives: CURRENCIES

Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart Bear Market Rally?

Again we can see how much hell and havoc a Death Cross can bring as it forecast the implosion of the CAD back in 2013.  The CAD has been in a declines and shows not signs of imminent reversal. Besides where’s it going to go to. Gold bulls are wrong if our Canadian dollar keeps heading south. The commercial traders are net long the CAD already but it sure looks like numbers don’t matter when another Death Cross is coming up.  We had our Death Cross, then just recently another Golden Cross which is extremely bullish right?  Well no, as another Death Cross is now due and it would only take another small dip in the CAD and the 200-day MA will get sliced in two.

The CAD 5th wave decline could end up being so bunched up that it will become difficult to track. Eventually the 4th wave in Minor degree will cause ultimate confusion with many over lapping wave structures. It’s the final ending plunge that could get very long. Sure commercials reports are extremely important but those folks have far less risk than what the speculators have, and the numbers can stay skewed for a very long time.

The speculators are the ones that are increasing their short positions so they are geared up for any CAD decline. We can always count on the speculators to get into a trap as they are very good at it.   I have what I call a “Wave Pool” which can contain 50 asset classes and their wave counts all bubbling and boiling in relationship to each other.

When some wild forecast comes out and this goes against the grain of anyone of my wave counts in the “pool” that chart will bounce or do nothing. When any expert or real world event does not stir up the pool then this news is irrelevant and has no real impact on any other wave counts I have. The short explanation is if some wild forecast does not force me to run and change wave positions then this forecast will be wrong and another worthless opinion.

The wave action in this pool are my bullshit detectors and I got 50 of them working for me at all times. About 25 futures wave positions and 25 ETF positions. It was amazing to see this work as I have listened to wild forecasts that just shocks the gold bulls. Yet not a single wave in my pool needed to get changed one bit. All my wave counts in this “Wave Pool” did not miss a beat which confirms the majority of what this wild forecaster had said would happen. I will elaborate on this pool action more and until I saw it happen for the first time I wasn’t paying attention. You can bet I’m paying attention to it now and have been for sometime. We all need a bull shit detector as this world is throwing out crap that needs a Sherlock Holmes detective to figure out in what the facts are.

Any good wave count should never harm a good trading account as I use the EWP as a “value added” analytical tool. A good wave count should above all save you money if we can avoid a meltdown. If any wave count does any damage to your trading account then we better throw that wave count out the window as fast as we can. Elliott wave is all about enhancing value not destroying it. If any wave count causes you to miss a major move, then it’s not enhancing your world or mine is it?

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Euro Monthly Chart Death Cross Location!

At this time my Cycle degree wave 3 peak may be questionable  if that location can remain as I may have to switch the Euro to a 4th wave top in Cycle degree. I need time to think on that but I sell have lots of time to think on it some more. The entire idea of a 5 wave decline in Primary degree doesn’t need to get changed just yet, for any reason.

In other words don’t fret if I talk about a big degree change in the Euro as it would have little impact on any present wave count that needs to get done. How this futures cash chart reacts and looks like in the Forex world, it may not react the same. This Euro chart is still bearish because of the 4th wave rally is just another bear market rally and “B” wave bottom might get completely retraced by the end of this year.

It now doesn’t take Elliott Wave rocket science anymore to figure out that the Euro is in deep trouble. What I say about the Euro is inversely related back to the US dollar. If the Euro is in a bear market then the USD is still in a bull market. This fact can not be undone as the Euro is not going to get kicked out of the US dollar basket any time soon.

The Death Cross on this Euro monthly chart, has past but I don’t think I have to remind readers anymore how bearish these Death Cross indicators are, as the 50-day MA line is going to lead the Euro down.  Hey, our CAD is going to implode right along with you guys so don’t think we are in some kind of bastion of safety. Canada is in serious trouble when all the real estate markets implode. This whole structure of waves looks like it is up too high, and you are right! These are diagonal waves to were the final count down can be a very long extension that will just boggle the mind.

All those gold investors will get burnt in the process because they are waiting for the Euro and our CAD to soar. You can wait a long time for that as every bear market rally retraces itself and heads to a new low. How many major bullish phases did the Euro have and each one completely retraced itself.  Our present Euro is  in another bear market rally so much more downside pain will come.

The run of Euro holders into the dollar continues as the US dollar becomes safe-haven as the world currencies implode.  A rising dollar is deflationary  and this in turn kills gold as an investment asset. There is a time to hold but there is also a time to become a trader as violent swings occur where investors get shredded becuase they stayed invested to long.  This world is not safe to Buy& Hold anymore as it is a Buy-Low sell high world that can generate better returns if you know how to bet the markets in either direction.  Having the ability and courage to go short at specific times always allows you to seek opportunities and major reversals. I will focus on the gold sectors as that is what I understand as I have experienced catching the falling GDX in 2008. Wild and moving markets is where I feel comfortable with as the trading opportunities are going to be fantastic if we are on the ball and are prepared at all times.

Commercials are still net short the Euro but not at any real extreme just yet.

 

 

Hits: 8

Euro Daily Chart: Return Of The Bear?

I believe that the Euro finished a “C” wave bull market, charging up to a 4th wave peak in Intermediate degree. To confirm that this Euro peak was just a bear market rally then the Euro has to retrace everything, back to the point of orgin. This would be below my black line.   There may still be some counter rally moves, but eventually the Euro will implode. Our CAD will implode as well, so we  are in the same sinking ship, so to speak. We also finished a Death Cross which most investors ignore, or don’t even know about. We have tons of tools in our tool box, to draw every conceivable indicator we want,  which I give value in using the 50-200-day MA to confirm my wave counts with. After a while we won’t need them, and we can put them back in the box for many months.

Gold bugs need the Euro to go up, to support their bullish claims. They also need for the Canadian dollar to soar, but we know that’s not going to happen any time soon. I have to double check on a monthly chart, but we should end on a wave 3 in Primary degree. This move could be very violent and fast so we have to plan for a reversal once it sets up.

Idealy I want the US Dollar to break a new record high as well, even just for a second!

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Bullish Update!

I tried these wave positions several times in the past but I have to bring it back as the USD could be in a bigger bullish move than anyone even suspects at this time. At the 2018 low I was expecting a wave 2 rally, which even has returned to the previous high where I would expected the wave 2 rally to end. Even the Death Cross on this weekly chart is showing, which is extremely bearish for the US dollar. Don’t get fooled by this Death Cross as they are all lagging indicators. The sequence I’m  looking for in a bull market is GC,DC,GC.

We had the first Golden Cross back in 2012 and look at that wild bullish move that it gave. Our next crossing should be a Death Cross, which has happened. Again they are lagging indicators as this market could turn where the 50 day line would crank up and slice through the 200 day line.  A very short life span of a Death Cross for sure. It may 10 weeks for the next Golden Cross to happen, but when it does it could spew out a major bullish phase surprising all USD watchers.

The Euro is melting down as the rest of the world currencies are in worse shape than the US dollar is. Safe-Haven in the US dollar? Now there is a real fundamental switch. Most analysts haven’t even suspected that this can happen, as the majority is always wrong at the extremes. Gold bugs need for the US dollar to implode, and the Euro and our Canadian dollar to soar, but none of that has materialized, in fact, the very opposite has been happening. The commercial positions are still short the Euro, so this has to reverse if the Euro is still to soar. Our Canadian dollar is heading into the toilet, which does not support any sustained gold rally at all.

For this US dollar bullish move to get confirmed, the US dollar “must” breakout by hitting a new bull market record high. Once it does that, then we could get into some violent US dollar moves. This  will drive gold bugs crazy as the US dollar has a direct or inverse relationship with gold. I’m a contrarian analysts and if I see that gold bugs are acting stupid, I have no guilty feelings, or hangups, in shorting them.  The only obligation I have is to find the best long trade setups for my friends and myself, and warn of major impending reversals and crashes. This happens at the Intermediate and Primary degree levels the most.

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Euro Weekly Chart: Bear Market Impending Death Cross

The majority willl never know what a bear market rally is, as the bulls only care that it keeps going up.  All trends must come to an end which the Euro has started to do a month ago. To help the gold  bugs to be on the right side, they need the Euro to go up, not down.  Arguing about if the Euro is on a big bullish path or on a much larger bearish path is futile because the markets are “Always Right” It’s our opinions or premises that are always wrong.

Bear markets always retrace their entire bullish move from where it started or originated from. That would be close to the bottom wedge line.  When that happens then the Euro has confirmed that  it’s present bull market was nothing but a fake. Since the 2008 peak the Euro has done this a minimum of 3 times, and is set to do it again.  The anticipated Death Cross (DC) on this Euro weekly chart is next in line but it may take well over 50 days for us to find out.

On the daily chart the Euro Death Cross has already been hit so I know more bearish downside is still to come. Rats are jumping ship and heading over to a new Titanic called the US dollar .  The US dollar is acting out its safe-haven status which contains two Golden Crosses already. Counting the crossings is the key as they will alternate in a DC, GC, DC fashion. There was a huge spread between the 50 and 200 day lines. The 50 day average has come up and sliced through the 200 day line creating a Golden Cross.

What should come next on this weekly chart is the dreaded Death Cross. It should speed up the Euro decline, with our Canadian dollar being on the same path.  After the Euro tanks to new lows, I expect another long counter rally which will also end up being a Euro bull trap. Spotting the Golden Cross bull trap is pretty obvious at this point, but in the end it may take into the fall or March 2019 to play out.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Golden Crosses Update.

 

In early 2018 the US dollar hit the 89 price target but at the exact same time an extension of the trend line was possiable. The US dollar is acting as a safe-haven go to currency which not to many gold investors are aware of.  With the US dollar still being in a bullish funk, two Golden Crosses have already formed. This is the very opposite of our CAD.

The problem is that all Death or Golden Crosses are lagging indicators at best, so I hardley use them. If the US dollar short term crash was just a correction, (Expanded).  Then the USD must prove this out by pushing to a new record high. Even if it only squeaks past the top by the smallest amount, the USD decline must get completley retraced from the point of orgin.

 

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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Death Cross Update.

Death Crosses just keep on coming so I added our dollar to the club.  A Death Cross  is a serious indicator that a longer decline is still in progress. Our CAD is crashing and it will continue to crash until a new record low in the CAD is established. This is not hard to understand if you believe our CAD just came from an inverted wave count. This means a bear market rally has taken place. The markets must confirm this bear rally by retracing the entire bullish cycle, that started with the 2016 low. I switched the CAD to a weekly chart and I saw it contained two Death Crosses with this one being the second. Death Crosses are not short term phenomena, as they forecast longer and deeper moves to come.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Update

Is this Head&Shoulder pattern a bullish or a bearish indicator?  Tecnically speaking we are at a previous high that still could fit a Minor degree rally and we should see a major decline to follow. If we look at this H&S pattern as a bullish sign then what has to happen, is the point on the right shoulder is going to be forced off.  The 89 price level is not just a lucky stop but it’s a Fibonacci number as well. 89 is also where the 2011 bottom meets perfectly with the bullish trend line.

Falling below this 89 price level, the US dollar would have to overcome major resistance to the downside. My bet is that the US dollar is in a much bigger bullish phase than what anyone can envision right now. Actually, the US dollar could be acting like a safe-haven place to hide, from the Euro storm that has been brewing for years.  The US dollar rally is keeping gold prices in check and as long as that scenario stays gold could crash much deeper than expected. Hoping of the return of the US dollar bear is just wishful thinking because this bullish move could last well into the fall. Commercials are net short the USD by a very wide margin and a bull market can keep fighting of the bears  for a very long time.

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Euro Weekly Chart Bear Market Update

 

Many may think that the Euro has nothing to do with the price of gold, but I think they are totally wrong with this type of thinking. Just go back to the 2011 Euro peak, match it up to the 2011 gold peak, and we have some very good correlation.  The Euro had no problem in joining the bear party at that time, but recently the experts were very bullish on the Euro as well.  When we look at the big trend line, nothing suggests a big Euro bull market is coming.  Participants don’t know what a bear market rally is, as they get excited by any rally at all.

A bear market rally always retraces its entire bullish sequence, from it’s point of orgin.  It only needs to do this by the slimmest of margins to turn the bull market, into just another bear market rally.

If we look back up we can count 4 bear market rallies that have all been retraced, trapping all the bulls each time. Ignoring this large trend line is a huge mistake, which I don’t like to get trapped in.

I don’t think any serious trader wants to get caught in a big bull trap, but the speculators have a natural knack for this kind of a trap. Elliott wave experts have a bullish mood towards gold, but the Euro and the USD refuses to play ball. Overlapping declining waves are diagonal wave patterns which are present in all commodities. Even my 4th wave rally has dipped into wave 2 in Intermediate degree, and worse yet, it also dipped into wave 2 in Primary degree.

If you think that the Euro cannot sink dramatically, then just look at the year long decline in 2014. This also matched the crude oil and gold crashes. It’s hard to except the idea to be bearish, when the herd is bullish, but this is what the EWP is supposed to be good for. It might take the rest of the year, but when this Euro breaks to a new record lows, we should expect another massive bullish phase. This will also be another big bear market rally. To say that gold and oil are going to soar with increasing trade war tensions, are ignoring the historical facts. A recession is coming and it’s only a matter of time before the greater “herd” see it as well. When a large part of the herd suddenly realize, or see the same thing, then usually a mini panic ensues.

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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart: Still Sinking Like Rock!

Our Canadian dollar has continued to implode, which has not disappointed my bearish outlook on our dollar. The June decline was a diagonal which can happen in 5th waves. They may look corrective which can fool the best of us, but diagonal waves are one of the best waves to give us a clue as to the location we are at. When I see wave analysts completley ignore diagonal wave counting, then I know that the analysts in question are just guessing at their positions.

Since we are getting close to ending this 5th wave, we should expect some type of a rally. How soon that will happen is always a flip of the coin as these 5th waves can extend beyond what we may think is normal. In commodities wild swings are very normal as fear is the main driver in commodaties.

If gold is supposed to go on this wild bull market then we need the CAD to fly as well. Clearly this is not happening. We need one more counter rally that is one degree smaller than the two showing and then after that all counter rallies will be 4th wave rallies. These 4th wave rallies will all end by one degree higher each time. This unfolds the same way if we started on a 5 wave bullish advance. This is wave 1-2 base counting, which always looks for wave 3 to extend first. The size of my wave 1-2 in Minor degree already hints that we may get a very short 5th wave when we get there. It’s also after the second set of 1-2 waves when extensions can really start to kick in.

Canada is heading into a recession if we like it or not, and it’s only a matter of degree how bad it can get. History has not been kind to Canada when trade wars erupt, even if it is mostly just hype.  When the worst does arrive, my contrarian instincts will turn very bullish as a new gold and oil bull market will grow from the depths of a price crash.

Markets will always move in the opposite direction of what the majority think is going to happen. If we get caught up in the same bullish rhetoric as the majority, we will end up suffering the same results as the majority do. In this world, if your not a contrarian you will end up becoming the victim!  You can only run with the bulls or bears for so long, before they all turn against the participants. Right now the bears are in firm control until all 5 waves have fully played out.

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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Bear Attack Update

At the peak in September 2017, analysts hyped our Canadian dollar along with the oil price.  After the “C” wave bullish phase completed, it also completed a wave 4 peak in Intermediate degree.  At this time our CAD has not developed any pattern that shows us that a bull market is coming. In fact the exact opposite is happening. The experts have little knowledge of the damage that can be done, when we are bullish but the opposite happens. They have no idea what a bear market rally is or what has to happen after. My description is that bear market rallies always retrace their entire move, which happens at all degree levels.

Now that they think fundamantals have worsened and I’m sure they will switch to a bearish mood as this bearish phase progresses.  Fundamentals are lagging conditions to price and sometimes it could take years for the fundamentals to catch-up to the price.  My parrell lines are based on the top two points and it gives us a rough idea when to expect another big counter rally.

Maybe at the “B” wave low we could see some short term support but in the end our CAD must completely retrace its entire bullish move, that started at the early 2016 lows.  Our Canadian dollar is not the only bear market rally, as I have many that I’m working on.

Our September high was in Intermediate degree, so once this all finishes all my CAD wave counts will jump up by a minimum of one degree. Most of the time it will be a two-degree change. This can still be a few years away so don’t get any ideas that we are going to blast off in some 5 wave bull market in Primary degree.

Any Primary degree 5 wave sequence will not happen until after any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom has been hit! The trade wars may sound real but a lot of damage can be caused by some imaginary dragon just the same.

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The Euro Takes A Beating!

This morning the Euro spiked up and then rapidly reverse and then plunged. That would be a surprise if we were very bullish on the Euro already. I have been bearish on the Euro for sometime already so this dip is no real surprise. To confirm that the Euro rally was just another fake, it would have to retrace the entire May bottom.  We see bear market rallies all the time at the smaller degree levels, but happens at a smaller scale, also happens on the bigger degree scales.

The US dollar also reacted, so it’s not an isolated Euro event.  I doubt that Italy has enough clout to bring the Euro down, but the analysts are determined to give you a reason for the decline if it’s right or not!  The world would end if analysts down find you a reason for every little price move in any direction.   I won’t be satisfied until that May 29th low is completely retraced.

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Euro Intraday Rally Update

Short term the Euro could still make a higher high, but longer term it should resume its bigger bearish trend. I would be a lot more bullish on the Euro if it were not for the commercial traders short positions. I kept this Euro wave count like my previous Euro posting, but the Euro may not push to the next higher high. The Euro may turn south sooner than we think and resume its bearish trend.

With all the risk factors increasing around the world we would expect the gold price to soar, but in order for gold to soar the Euro needs to soar as well.  Even our CAD is getting beat up and is still pointing south,  so I don’t see the two main inverse currencies supporting a big gold bullish move at this time.

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US Dollar Intraday Bearish Action Update

The US dollar has been standing up very well recently but and correction has not gone deep enough to make a difference. The rally in the last few days also has been very choppy, so this sure works as still part of the counter rally. I relabeled the top with an “A” wave but this may just be a temporary thing until I eliminate more alternate wave counts.

There still should be a very bullish move coming as the entire USD may still be part of a bigger bullish phase.  The Euro should act inversley to the US dollar, but otherwise I remain bearish on the Euro.

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Euro Intraday Rally Update

The Euro has been in a rally but there still may be one upside move left to go, before it resumes it’s bearish trend. I have just started a wave 1-2 count in Minute degree, which would extend wave 3 in Minor degree.  The Euro could keep right on heading south from here,  just like the US dollar may have one more small leg down, before it also starts to turn back into it’s bullish trend. Even with this Euro rally and US dollar decline, gold has moved little. Once the Euro resumes it’s bearish trend then I can see gold head south as well.   Commercials are still net short the Euro so until that changes, I will remain bearish on the Euro.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Phase Update

So far the US dollar is in a bullish phase that has no signs of quiting any time soon. The Euro acts inversley to the US dollar, like our  Canadian dollar and the Austrailian dollar is.

Right now, I think we are in another correction, with gold spiking back up to $1300, and oil also making a good bullish showing today.  If a brand new leg down was to happen then our present run is coming up to resistance. We also have a H&S pattern set-up so if the bearish scenerio is true then this H&S pattern would be a bearish set-up. This could also be a very bullish H&S set-up and if that is true then the US dollar will blow past this resistance price level with little effort.

Any 5 wave move can point to lower lows, but if it was attached to an expanded  “C” wave decline, then the US dollar can see new record highs. This may take all summer and well into the fall to complete so until this happens the bearish forces will still dominate and gold move.

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Euro Weekly Chart Bear Market Update

At this time nothing has really forced a radically new wave count as the bearish mood continues. The top trend line now had a third peak we can use and so far the Euro does not look like it wants to turn and soar to the moon. They majority are saying that gold and the Euro will soar, but the exact opposite is what is happening.  Since the 2015 the Euro has developped and expanded pattern followed in 2017 with a strong looking impulse.

The same bear market rally logic applies to the Euro as well. It to must completley retrace it’s 2017 bullish move to confirm that a bear market rally has occured. The Euro runs inversely to the US dollar, so the Euro must go up for gold to follow. This has not happened as the Euro is heading south instead. We are in a small correction at this time and there still may be more to go, but the Euro will resume it’s downward trend.

Commercials have bearish Euro positions, so until that changes this Euro bearish phase is still in effect.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Rocket Bull Market Update

The US Dollar bull run just keeps on going. I hate to call any top at this moment because these types of moves  can extend dramatically. We do have a small vertical spike that seems to be forming, but again we could still be a bit early for a decent correction to take place. Troubles in Italy and the Euro in general, is helping to confirm the EURO bear market and this US dollar bull market.

I believe the US dollar crashed as an expanded wave 4 correction and if that is the case then the US dollar still has to score a new bull market record high.  It still may take the rest of this summer or into the fall before this bullish run starts to get near an end, but it will end. When that top arrives then another big US dollar bearish phase will ensue and gold related assets will enjoy another huge bullish phase. As long as the bullish presure remains in the US dollar, gold and gold stock ETFs will act subdued or very bearish.

In the 2008 crash gold stock ETFs also crashed along with oil and other related assets, so there is no reason why it can’t happen again. For now I started with the Minor degree wave count and it may look a bit small, but moves like this can soar once real extensions start to happen.

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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Update: Crashing Along With Crude Oil prices.

Our Canadian Dollar is still crashing right along with crude oil prices as Canada has a real getting products to the market place. Short term I see no bright side  for our CAD to suddenly bottom and then turn into a great bull market. This is not going to happen as the CAD bull market fits best as an inverted zigzag, which are usally big bear market rallies.

From a Cycle degree perspective and calling it a bear market rally, you can always expect a complete retracement of the entire bullish phase. 4th wave rallies are all bear market rallies, and the higher degree the bigger the bear market rally will become. If an Intermedete degree bear market rally can fool the experts into believing a big bull market is in effect, then there is little hope for “Average Joe Trader” to know the difference as well.

Commercials are a bit net long already but those numbers can still get pushed to the extreme side, so at this time COT numbers have little meaning.  At .7618 our CAD may find some more price support, but that also has little meaning once this price level gets retraced.

In the monthly charts our CAD had two major peaks, one in 2007 and another lower high in 2011. The first peak matches up with the 2008 Oil peak, and the secondary CAD peak syncronizes well with the gold price peak.  You can’t get a better commodaties correlated currency, so our CAD is very important to follow if we want to be prepared for any Gold/ Oil bull market to come.  For gold to soar we need the CAD to soar as well, and at this time this looks highly unlikley. Despite what you may hear on the news Canada has some serious issues, all created by our own federal governmant. Carbon Tax, Massive minimum wage increases, all stiffle Canadian business.  Not until our smiling photo bomb expert wakes up to the problems he has created, it can’t get fixed.  Before too long Canada will be in a recession as more business start to move south. In BC our provincial government is controlled by the green party which wants no part of any oil pipeline projects.  It’s pretty sad to see a trade war errupt between two provinces, as we all lose when this happens.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

In late February I was calling for a US dollar counter rally, but as soon as it did charge up, the pattern was very impulsive looking which usally sends markets much higher than anyone expects at this time. The Euro is just inverse to the US dollar, which has been on a decline as well. It’s not just about one asset class as the US dollar bull market and bear market phases sends reverberations across many other asset classes as well.  The US dollar rally has been the reason why gold has been so lethargic. If a correction in this US  dollar bull market is due, then gold could see some bullish moves as well.  One little dip in the US dollar doesn’t turn gold into a massive bull market over night.

All commodaties I track are in a 4th wave in Cycle degree, and most of them are still far from being finished. With about 30 Cycle degree wave 3-4s in play, it may take until 2021 before many of them will be ending their respective 4th waves in Cycle degree. There are only a few asset classes that have seen a 4th wave bottoms, but in a few years time, many more will join the club. All these 4th wave endings will produce 5 wave waves up in Primary degree, but in commadaties, these 5 wave sequences can be extremely choppy as well.

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Russian Ruble: Another Cycle Degree Bear Market? 2008-2018 Review

This is all the history I have of the Russian Ruble. A big location clue is the 2008 peak which matches the WTI oil Cycle degree peak in the same year.  I show a 5 wave decline in Intermediate degree, but this would no longer match oil.  I could switch this entire 5 wave decline into a single Primary degree zigzag decline, and then it would match oil very well.

I will create another wave count but turn it into a zigzag, the out-put when both  finishes would be drastically diffrent.  We should be able to tell if an impulse has started or another choppy rally. A choppy rally would throw up a red flag that another big bearish rally is in effect. In both wave counts, the present Intermediate degree wave 3-4 would not change. The 4th wave rally may not be completed just yet, so this would also have to clear up some more.

Every bear market rally gets retraced, so if this 4th wave rally position is true, then a new record low in the Russian Ruble will happen. I guess with all the bullish news out about oil shouldn’t the Ruble be soaring as well? Maybe it’s the Ruble that is telling us that oil is going to crash.

Commercials are net short the Russian Ruble, while the speculators are net long. Both parties can’t be right folks! Speculators are the ones chasing the bull market, and they are the first ones to get into a trap as well. Until these numbers start to switch, I have a bearish outlook for the rest of the year.

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The Euro Keeps On Crashing: Daily Chart Update.

The Euro counter rally did not last very long at all. We will see if this impulse decline has more power to it than most analysts are expecting. The 6 currencies that are inside the US dollar basket act inversley to the US dollar with this Euro being one of them. It also all realates back to gold as gold and the Euro have traveled together many times in the past.  The bullish phase in 2017  was a “C” wave bull market with 5 waves in Minute degree.  At 1.16 the Euro can put up some resistance to the decline but this should only be a temporary resting spot as everyone screams, “Support”.

Price support means little, but wave pattern support is everything, from my Cycle degree perspective.  I may have to adjust the wave count decline, as I’m starting this run as a wave 3 extension. We have an open gap below and this should get hit in this bearish decline.  Until the Euro decline has completely played out, gold will keep heading south. Gold has crashed $70 already and it’s not finished.  I’m sure the COT reports still show the commercials in a Euro short position, and until that starts to shift dramatically the Euro will keep declining. Most investors have no clue what the difference is between a real bull market and a bear market rally. “Every” bear market rally retraces itself by 100%. It’s the big bear market rallies in Primary and Intermedeate degree that fool us the most.

The Euro started it’s bear market in 2008 right along with oil, with both ending on Cycle degree wave 3 peaks. This makes it close to a 10 year bear market and we’re still counting, as “every” rally in the Euro has been completley retraced.

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Australian Dollar Weekly Chart Elliott Wave Count Review

The Australian dollar is not in the US dollar basket but it is important to watch as it follows the commodity cycles. During the years I worked on it off and on as the wild gyrations were far above my pay grade.  Once we line up the 2001 bottom with the peak of the US dollar and the bottom in gold, The AUD bullish cycle was a zigzag with one mother expanded “B”  flat ending with a vertical drop that shocked may gold stock investors.  “C” waves of flats end like this as with zigzags this is reversed most of the time.

For gold to crank up dramatically the Australian dollar has to crank up as well. This is not what I see about to happen as the present rally sure fits great into another Elliott Wave triangle.  A triangle in a 4th wave bear market rally is fooling many into thinking the bull market in gold is imminent.

At this time the AUD is already heading down and it should not take that long before it trashes the previous wave 3 low in Intermediate degree. It may take the rest of the summer and some of fall to play out, but I sure would never want to bet long on a 4th wave bear market rally.

I have a pretty clean 5 wave decline so far, with diagonal leanings but it does look good as an impulse. One Intermediate degree drop is all we need to help confirm the entire decline.

The AUD also peaked in 2011 and has followed gold and gold stocks down together.   You can’t get a better correlation to Gold than when you look at the Australian Dollars big trends. So is gold going to suddenly soar while the AUD keeps heading south? I doubt it, as it would be truly amazing if it did.

The COT report does not show the commercials in a net a short position, but they are long by a small amount but not to any extreme just yet. This may happen at the .60 cent price level. A huge double bottom would be setting up, and a bullish H&S would show up as well.

The perfect setup for a major reversal will come folks, when the talking heads are all spewing out bearish fundamentals concerning the Australian Dollar. Welcome to the club as our Canadian dollar will tag along with the AUD  during the next decline.

Given the history how fast the AUD can crash, what may be bullish looking right now, by next week it could trash my wave 3 bottom.

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Japanese Yen Intraday Elliott Wave Review

eI want to warn readers that this YEN Elliott Wave count is an experimental project that can go wrong in unknown ways very quickly. The 2011 top matches gold and gold stocks very well. I see the YEN decline matching the gold stock decline, right down to matching the mid 2013 correction as well. Even the 2016 rally matches gold’s rally fairly well.  Our present rally is also a choppy rally  that just will not fit into an impulse without some extreme “forcing”. Forcing a wave count to fit our outlook will never work in the long run as the markets will shred those types of wave counts in short fashion.

I have tried for many years to make sense out of the bigger picture in the YEN. It still would need an incredible amount of time and attention before ‘I’m happy with the big picture, but for now an intraday wave count will have to do.  All support would have to get “taken out”, including the 2015 low for the YEN to show us that the bearish trend is still alive.

Commercial reports do not show extreme short positions on the YEN, so they are not that useful at this time. As the YEN declines, then the commercials will just keep adding to their bullish positions. They say gold is still going to head north, but will the YEN follow?  The YEN is one of 6 currencies in the US dollar index basket and it deserves watching if this gold/yen relationship keeps up. Futures are strictly “single units” as they are not “Pairs” like you would find in the Forex markets. You would have to find the exact pair that matches this futures chart to take advantage of any action that may happen in the futures market.

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GBP Monthly Chart: 1979-2018 Elliott Wave Triangle Update

In some of my past updates I didn’t go back far enough to see the big picture, but with this monthly chart and an additional 1000 bars, we can go back to  1979 and start another count. I have a very high degree of confidence that the GBP is in one big Elliott Wave triangle, and if I keep the wave count as I had it, we may be too early for the 4th wave in Cycle degree to be completed. From my Cycle degree perspective all my work is based on 3 degree levels.

Primary degree, Intermediate degree and Minor degree, in sequential order  is what I have to find to make a better fit. Constantly looking for a better fit is the only way to eliminate the bad wave counts, which “every” wave analyst constantly has. This wave count position change also does not impact  the wave count I presently have posted,  as the short term target is still the same.  Wave 3 in Minor degree still needs to get completely retraced, but does not have to fall below the 1985 lows.  That 1979-1985 crash is just one single zigzag, followed by another completed inverted zigzag. This only gives us a count of two zigzags that have completed. This means we still have 3 Primary zigzags to go which still could be many years away.  Sorry folks, but I have no SC or GSC degree wave counts that I can give you.  I could give you nothing but SC and GSC degree bullshit if you want, as I spent a decade or more counting everything in GSC and SC degree levels.

Flipping big numbers and letters around is actually time traveling on paper, as one degree is the same as jumping forward or backward in time by 60% or more. This is a structural change and not a “cosmetic” change. Cosmetic wave counts never last and they always make us miss major bear and bull markets.

The commercials are net long by a small amount, but they carry far less risk. The speculators carry all the risk, who have”shifted” to the  to the long side. The mass media always report what the speculators are doing. Speculators are the trend chasers which always leads them into a trap sooner or later.  I have been using the COT reports for close to 20 years, which always work best when we see extreme differences between the two groups. If net positions get close to a 4 or 5:1 ratio, then I consider this as a substantial extreme. It also puts our wave counts, at risk of being wiped out.

I will be posting more GBP charts, but mostly from daily or weekly charts and Minor degree turnings.  I think this picture above will show much better as we head into the fall time period. Those that think that the British Pound is going to soar are in a bull trap, so they eventually will have to pull the ejection seat and bail out.

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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Update

Despite what you may be reading about Canada its fundamental economy is becoming a train wreck. Our commodities are turning into a bottle neck as the train tracks need major work and of course the pipeline issue with our local premier who is controlled by the “greens” is willing to go to jail to block any pipeline from being built.  We are facing the Carbon Tax which just scares away any big investors as costs increase. With the world in a lopsided oil trade, I can’t see our CAD soaring like many believe it will once the oil decline becomes more obvious.

The current commercial positions are long, but not by a wide margin. Since the decline is a 5th wave the diagonals come out of hiding, making our wave counting more challenging.  I love the challenge as they are part of the wave structure and provide us with a very important location clue.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Review

I’m sure the gold bugs will not like the US dollar wave count, but it runs inversely to the Euro and wouldn’t do it’s “own thing” no matter what we think.

For gold to soar, we need the US dollar to implode, but obviously that is not happening at this point. This potential 5 wave run looks identical to the Euro 5 wave decline. I also moved my bearish degree level down by one with this run, but may have to shift back if this pattern does something completely different.

As it sits this US dollar bullish phase is not completed but a correction seems to be in progress. It’s this USD correction that has stopped gold’s decline for now.  This bullish phase could move at a very high speed, but it is developing a pretty good looking impulse which can make it easier to count out.

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Euro Daily Chart Bearish Phase Update

The Euro bullish phase came to a dead stop right in a long term bearish trend line that has been going on since the 2008 peak. That 2008 peak matched other commodity peaks along with oil. The only change I’m making is in this bearish phase is to drop down by one degree. People may think it’s funny that I’m concerned with being out by one degree.You may think differently if  only one degree can put you off by 60% or more. This the same as the  Fibonacci number of “.618” which separates each degree level. One degree difference means finding a huge bear market bottom and missing the entire bull market that will follow.  With the 15 degree levels that we deal with, being out one degree is huge.

I’m starting a Minute degree run, which should end up at a wave 1 bottom in Minor degree. For many years gold ran along with the Euro as the US dollar imploded, so it is pretty hard for me to swallow the gold bull market at this time. Oil is also at an extreme so the Euro and oil can crash together, as they sure share that same 2008 date!

A very strong commercial short positions are still on which should slowly start to reverse over the next bearish phase. The Euro is in the US dollar basket, so some of the currencies in this basket, is what we use to watch for reversals.

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British Pound Bearish Phase Review

With my last posting I did not go back far enough, but once I did a big triangle started to make a better fit. It’s always about finding a better fitting wave pattern with my wave counts, as it makes no sense to replace any wave count that is as crappy as the last one. Anybody can come up with a wave count, but maintaining that wave count is the big task. So far the GBP is still on a bearish decline which should take it to new record lows.

Any new record low, even by the slimmest of margins will help to confirm that this wave count is valid. Of course it could be very choppy on the way down, but we should get 5 waves in Minute degree which should finish this Cycle degree GBP bear market.

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US Dollar Bullish Phase Review

When I was working the Euro wave count I saw a very bearish scenario. The USD moves inversely to the Euro which is clearly evident in the chart. There is a very good chance that the US dollar peak was just an expanded correction and that our February low is an Intermediate degree 4th wave bottom.  I was bullish with this turning but as a Minor degree wave 2. Shit, we could see 5 waves up in Minor degree that will shock and awe us all.   Stocks have plunged, but the USD is soaring so that sure does not help gold any.

Right now the USD is at a resistance level, producing a big H&S pattern. There are bullish H&S patterns and there are bearish H&S patterns, so if this bullish phase has much longer to travel, then the line on the left shoulder will get lifted. Yes, I now have 2 open gaps on the way up, but they could remain open for the duration. This little pattern showing a much bigger potential bullish move, is enough to trigger a monthly chart review instantly.

When something in the intraday scale goes amiss then this is a signal to count backwards to find our mistakes. This has implications that wave 3 in Cycle degree could have ended in 2008 along with oil. Our CAD is going the opposite way which had it’s Cycle degree wave 3 peak in late 2007!  With so many Cycle degree peaks completed it feels like this blog is the graveyard  where Cycle degree wave 3 peaks come to die!  😉

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