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Category Archives: CURRENCIES

British Pound Daily Chart Bull Market Update

 

The COT report you see above is for the British Pound which shows that the commercials or hedgers have a massive long position, and then on the flip side, the bottom shows all the managed money positions or large speculators with a bearish opinion. Two massive opposing views in which way the market is going to go. I watch COT reports for over 18 years and I know that it is the hedge fund money speculators that “always”get into a trap of one type or another.   Any wave analysts that is still bearish on the BP will have the wave positions trashed all the time.

It is futile to count bearish wave counts when the numbers are so skewed against the GBP bears.

 

This daily chart I added 100 bars,  keeps the Primary degree “B” wave bottom in view.  What follows the “B” wave bottom should be 5 waves up in Intermediate degree. 1985 was a pivotal year for many currencies that made a wave 4 bottom in Cycle degree.  A short description would be, “it’s a bull market”!

Elliott Wave is much easier to figure out from the idealized vision, and I ask the same group of questions before every turning. Where am I, and what do I need to fill the entire “C” wave in Primary degree? In this case, 5 waves up in Intermediate degree is the only idealized pattern. When a pattern does not happen, then it should always force a complete review.

When was the last time that a wave analyst has shown you a complete Cycle degree update, with the 1985 bottom visible? 1985 ended in massive moves making those spikes stand out like a sore thumb. If I see 1985 ignored then those analysts have no clue where they are. Anyone can flip numbers and letters around inside a computer, but get them to count it out on a big monthly chart with pen and paper, they will not be able to do it.

The correcting phase may still be in effect so wave 2 would still have to be adjusted in the future.

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US Dollar 1985-2018 Monthly Chart Update

 

I’m sure all the gold investors will be grinning from ear to ear much like the Joker in a Batman movie, as the US dollar keeps declining. What this big chart shows is the huge falling wedge from that 1985 peak, which stopped in 2008 before it blasted in a surprise move. That 2008 rally was no surprise to the contrarians at that time because I documented the turning in great detail, and at that time I also had some futures long contracts out on in, and caught a good part of the move.

From the 2008 bottom  I spent years counting it out as a bear market rally, and switched to a bullish wave count as well.  The idea that a beautiful impulse is still going to happen, will fail as soon as the USD dips into my wave “A”.  It doesn’t even have to get that far as, but if  the USD is in a much bigger bull market then the US dollar will find a major bottom and reverse. The wedge is telling us that a huge bull market still has to form in the US dollar.

The US dollar is heading into a correction that may take it down to that 80 price level before it finds a solid bottom again. Since the Euro makes up about 57% of the US dollar index, it has shown very bullish moves inverse to the US dollar.  When the US dollar does find a new bottom then many of my COT reports and the Market Vane report, will also change to a bullish reversal. I believe the ETF UUP would be a buy once wave 2 in Primary degree sees it’s bottom.

Without a doubt the US dollar will soar above 120 and even beat or double top the 1985 peak at about 165.  This may take until 2041 to happen, so only the younger wave analysts will benifit in the long-term.

 

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Australian Dollar Weekly Chart Update.

 

The Australian dollar is not in the US dollar index, but it reacts much like our CAD does. Commercials have shifted to the long side while the speculators are in a bear trap. Maintaining a bearish wave outlook will not work. The choppy ride up in the last several years looks just like a bearish rally, but they also can belong to a diagonal bullish move. The AUD may have already turned the corner so it needs watching to see if it confirms bullish wave action. I will not produce intraday Minute degree wave counts anymore, as all I need is to confirm 3 degree levels, and Minor degree is it.

I believe that we are in another bullish stage that is heading up to a “B” wave in Primary degree and once this peak becomes clear a new commodities crash will happen. 2011 was a 30 year mania peak which all commodities follow. All commodities as a group have a unique idealized blue print that I am mapping in my memory first, when we don’t, how do we know what we are supposed to be looking for?

Sorry folks, but I’m not any fan of modern-day wave analysis, as they do more damage to investors then they know. Big currency moves are happening and Cycle degree wave 4 crash in the AUD is still to come. At least until solar cycle #25 starts we should see deflationary times as part of the 30 year cycle that I use. Supercycle degree wave 3 in gold will not arrive until 2041 which I’m sure the CAD and AUD will confirm.

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Canadian Dollar 2002-2018 Update

 

Our Canadain dollar wave positions needed some work. Last week things changed as many important COT reports had strong shifts including our CAD. Hedgers are still net long while the speculators are net short.

I started wave tracking the CAD back in the late 1990’s. At that time it was a wild ride, and it looks like it might do it again. I moved my Cycle degree peek over to the 2011 peak, as that matched the gold&silver mania bubble in 2011.  All commodities are linked together with zigzags and the twin tops show how related or CAD is to both gold and oil production.

What followed in 2011 was a swan dive that had a big bear market rally and followed by a set of 5 waves smaller in size. The late 2007 peak has a huge spike in it, then eventually another major spike at the 2016 bottom. CAD and oil like two pea’s in a pod! What followed in 2016 was a wild ride that looks like one of the best zigzags ever formed, which has not changed.

The crash into 2016 is a zigzag with a long tail. The 1929-1932 crash did the same thing so, if it happens once than I  look for that pattern all the time. The next big zigzag is in progress but the Primary degree “B” wave is not even close. “B” waves can contain flats that start out with smaller degree zigzags, and our CAD fits that very well right now.

If we maintain a bearish CAD veiw we will be wrong every step of the way as a new bullish phase may have begun.  5 waves up in Minor degree is on the menu, but it looks very choppy on the daily charts. That’s ok, as it looks like a diagonal wave structure is starting to form.

Our CAD is not going to the moon, but it can head to a triple top, in the next few years.

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Euro Daily Chart Bullish Update.

 

The Euro makes up about 59% of the US dollar index, and runs inversely to the USD all the time. It’s impossible for the US dollar to implode without the Euro going the opposite way. Short-term in the next year or so the Euro should rally which I think is a wave 2 rally. Last week many COT reports changed dramatically which is a sign that “shit” is about to hit the fan!

Sure the Euro can make some wild corrections but I will no longer be bearish on the Euro until I see the impending bullish phase start to get real tired! Bulls can only run so long and then they get tired and must rest. The Euro bear market is far from finished, so the next 5 waves up will end and then die again.  On a weekly chart we are still in a Golden Cross position so that also helps make a strong bullish case. I hate to miss any 5 wave run in Minor degree, but GDX will provide the same type of a 5 wave move.

The COT reports are not ideal but COT positions in other inverse related futures do. The Euro will also join the Cycle degree 4th wave club, but it’s 4th wave peak was in April of 2008, along with oil.

In 1985 the Euro also hit a wave 3 bottom in Cycle degree. 1985 is a real popular year as it stands out like a sore thumb, so there can never be an argument. The only argument or disagreement you will find is between all the wave analysts trying figure out what wave position it really is. We can’t wait for them folks as I already have mapped it all under Cycle degree guidelines, and it’s the readers choice which he wants to waste his time with in following. SC, GSC, and Submillennium degree wave 3 markets are far into the future as that is what Cycle degree forecasting is all about.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart

 

The US dollar had been running north but the hedgers, (commercials) have increased their bearish positions on the US dollar. Many COT reports have seen strong reversals of positions, so it’s not just the USD. Long term the US dollar is on a major bull market, but during any USD bull market correction will send the price of gold soaring. I was looking for 5 impulse type waves but the next low could very well dip into what used to be my wave 2 bottom, but now I have to work it as a diagonal wave 1 in Primary degree! Diagonal wave structures are very common in all commodities, which are just zigzags connected together. Small zigzags to very large zigzags is the rule not the exception, as we will find very few flats, except for zigzag corrections.

Flats are pretty rare in commodaties, so knowing  how to count connecting  zigzags is very important.

The 2008 low in the USD, was a 23 year low, from the massive 1985 US dollar peak. (British Pound bottomed the same year) That 1985 peak is a Cycle degree wave 3 peak with 2008 being the 4th wave in Cycle degree.

If the USD still implodes this year, then gold should soar. What will happen with crude oil remains to be seen, as the gold/oil ratio will not stay at 17:1!

It may be hard to understand that the US dollar is in a huge bull market, but that only concerns gold investors, it matters little to traders who can bet in either direction, up or down.

This big US dollar bullish phase is heading up to Supercycle degree wave “a” and may not arrive until 2041. The USD could arrive 3 years earlier as there is a 3 year difference between the USD and gold.

For years I counted the USD as a big bear market rally but it sure fought my wave counts every steep of the way.

 

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Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart Update

 

I see the trend with our Canadian dollar as still be down. Since the 2011 peak coincided with gold, the CAD bearish phase really took off. From the 2016 bottom we have what is nearly a perfect inverted zigzag, which are just bear market rallies. To confirm this the CAD must still completley retrace its entire move below the 2016 low. Commercials are already building up their net long positions but that can swing just as fast. Not until the hedge funds turn extremely bearish and commercials far more skewed, can I turn bullish on our Canadian dollar. Even the Market Vane report only shows about 50/50 bullish readings, which is not even close to being extreme at this time.

The CAD started a decline but it has been very choppy just like a diagonal wave structure in a 5th wave can be.  Even when the chart is still fairly high, our CAD can free fall the rest of the way to a new record low.

The Death Cross has already formed in the daily chart but is still a bit short from the Death Cross on this weekly chart! What has more power? COT numbers or another Death Cross. Hopefully we will find out more this fall, as I put my vote on a Death Cross having the real power!

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Euro Weekly Chart Bear Market Update.

 

The Euro is in the US dollar basket so when the US dollar is bullish the Euro will turn bearish. Sure we had a great run in 2017, and gold responded. The problem is, if the Euro is in a bear market rally, then a complete retracement of this bullish phase will happen. The hedge funds are still very bullish with the Euro, but the commercials are building up their short positions. This doesn’t get me all warm and fuzzy to call a super Euro bull market just because of the 2017 rally. There is an expanded pattern in this 4th wave, just like there is in the US dollar.

Even as other COT reports favored gold just recently, the Euro postions do not come close. The hedge funds have to switch to net short postions, while the commerials build up their long positions.

The Death Cross in the Euro daily chart has already happened, with the weekly chart Death Cross still to happen. Right now there is a toss-up if  Death Crosss have power over COT reports. I hope to have a better understanding of this by the end of the year. So far Death Cross over COT reports rule with the Euro!

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bull Market Update

 

The US dollar refuses to die and that is because it’s in a huge bull market which only a few market observers understand. I have been mapping this huge bull market to memory first as we have to “see” the pattern first before we can count it out! Wave counting is a secondary act of confirming what we think we are seeing.

This bullish phase can still last all year, but I do expect a violent US dollar crash to happen during 2019 and even last until early 2020. (March) This would happen when the US dollar corrects for a Primary degree 4th wave crash after which we will see a bullish phase in the US dollar that will shock us all. It sure will be a surprise for gold investors as they will get burned in the process. The US dollar bottomed in 2008 as a 4th wave Cycle degree bottom ending with a zigzag. Oil peaked with the US dollar bottom, which seems to be 3 years apart from when gold peaked.

“All” commodities are linked together with zigzags in a diagonal world and where the EWP rules are constantly being broken. It is impossible to make sense with commodities, if we can’t count inverted zigzags lasting over 40 years. Gold bugs have a real problem with a big US dollar bull market as the gold price will get crushed during the next 3 years. This year or in September, gold will break below $1047 and even end up crashing down between $700-$800.

No matter how bullish the US dollar is very long term, it is during it’s corrections that gold and gold stock ETFs will soar. From a traders point of view it matters little as we have the freedom to bet down or up when the time comes. I’m very bearish on all gold stock related ETFs and have no intention of closing off my bearish positions. I have added options to the mix and they have to get closed off a week or so before their expiration date turns them worthless!

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Euro Daily Chart Bear Market Review.

 

It looks like the Euro is resuming its bearish trend where no support will hold except for a short term basis. We also had the Euro Death Cross at the Euro price level of 1.200 and we still have the Euro weekly Death Cross ahead of us. The Euro bearish trend is much bigger than what the majority think. Gold needs for the Euro to soar and not head south, but I see no signs that this will happen any time soon. Even the hedge funds and commercials have net short positions on the Euro which definitely confirms that the Euro is not going to keep heading north. A 4:1 net short ratio would be at the extreme range and we are not even close to that just now.

Last weeks Market Vane report still has far too many bulls present so even that does not confirm a major bull market in the Euro will happen.

The speculators or hedge funds always get into one trap or another, but it must be a far bigger bear trap than what we presently have. What power that any Death Cross has over the COT reports remains to be seen, and I’m watching this on a regular basis. This may take the rest of 2018 to play out but then 2019 could be very bullish for this Euro cash futures contract.  Again, if the Euro is in a bigger bear market, then complete retracement of the entire 4th wave rally will happen as the Euro must eventually slice through the bottom trend line. as well.

 

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Euro Daily Chart Update.

 

The Euro is going the opposite direction from the US dollar, but with this chart we had a bit of a rally in the last 10-11 trading days. Last weeks COT report show that the speculators (hedge funds) and the commercial traders are both in a net short positions on the Euro. Not by that much but they are both definitely net short at this time. This does not support a big bullish move in the Euro which gold investors must get to keep the gold bullish dream alive.

The Death Cross on this daily chart has already happened, with the weekly chart Death Cross still ahead of us.  Dreaming of a mythical Euro bull market sitting on top of an impending weekly chart Death Cross, is not my idea of a bullish position I would take.

Market Vane (MV) report had about 48% bulls present in Tuesday’s report, which would still need to shrink as bulls keep disappearing! Any reading below 10% gives lots of room for a large group of Euro bulls to come back in.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Update!

 

During July and August the US dollar started to go sideways before it started another correction. There can always be a bit of downside to go, but a higher low seems to already  happened.  Since we have two spikes to draw a H&S line across, we see that this can be very bearish for the longer term.  If the US dollar is in a much bigger bull market, then any H&S reaction will blow the lid off the right sided shoulder.  When the US dollar breaks out it will help to confirm that the US dollar is far more bullish than we can imagine at this time.

A bull market in the US dollar is “deflation”, as it will also kill the price of gold. The $1200 gold price is a psychological even number, so when this $1200 no longer holds, then this will really upset the gold bulls. Without a doubt the US dollar will break out to new record highs, as the Euro implodes again. One main USD price high to beat is 107 or higher and then 122 will be another price peak that eventually gets hit as well. The first major breakout could happen by the end of this year, but that is still 4 months away.

Yes, the commercials are building up net short positions in the US dollar, but they can handle extremes as they are the closest to the industry and have far less risk that any of the hedge funds have. (speculators). Even my Market Vane report showed a high perentage of US dollar bulls present, which suggest that the US dollar could still implode.

Once the US dollar resumes its bullish trend, then the Euro will carry on with it’s bearish trend. Again, gold investors need for the Euro and our CAD to keep going up, as the CAD and the Euro are inside the US dollar basket.

The Euro will travel in the opposite direction than the US dollar, so wishing and praying for the Euro to soar is very unrealistic at this time.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

 

Some of the COT numbers for the US dollar have already been shifting as the commercial traders start to pile on short positions agains the US dollar. We also had a US dollar death cross, but during 2008-2011 we had many crossing. Another rally would turn the Death Cross back to a Golden Cross very fast.

Early 2018 the USD came to a screaching halt at 89 after which it started to crank up, push the price of gold downward. in the process. For those that are convinced that the US dollar will implode due to over printing, will be right at one point. The five waves down, since 2016 did send the gold price soaring, but the gold price refused to push higher after.

From about 1992, all the way up and then back down to early 2008 is just a correction in a US dollar bull market that very few understand.

A bear market is just a correction to a bigger bull market, and eventually this US dollar chart has to retrace the entire bear market, and travel above 2016 and 2001 highs as well.

Any bull market with the US dollar is deflation!  In 2011 the US dollar exploded, along with stocks and gold stocks took a major beating. This is a classic description of a stock mania that has happened many times before.

I know EWI has a very bullish US dollar wave count and I switched back and forth a few times myself. Any trend doesn’t just quit on some news as you can’t stop a trend before it’s time! The 2008 bottom was a prime example how bearish the entire world was towards the US dollar. Yet in face of all the overwhelming bearish news, the US dollar started to rally which still isn’t over.

Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as late 2007 was about as extreme as I ever recorded. Even my Market Vane (MV) report from Tuesday, has about 74% bulls present which is on the high range alright, but this extreme could also reach 96% or 98% before the US dollar implodes. Lumber had 98% bulls present, which is the most extreme I have ever seen. With the silver mania bubble peak in 2011, the MV extreme reach 96%. With those kind of odds, markets have no choice but to reverse.

 

 

 

 

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US Dollar Monthly 1980-2018 Review

When we go back to the 1980 era we see the USD hit a peak in 1985 before it imploded and started to end in 2008. All this is great but forgetting or ignoring the pattern the USD made to that 2008 bottom, is the key. Back in 2008 the world hated the US dollar as the majority were all trying to get out of the US dollar by any means neccesary, so investing in gold was the most popular theme. I had that 2007-2008 time period very well documented as the contrarians at that time also said tha the US dollar is going on a bullish run. Commercials were net long while the speculators (hedge funds), all were on the US dollar bearish side of the trade. One thing I can “Always” count on is that these hedge funds  “Always” get in a trap. In 2008 the US dollar bears were in a bear trap, and there is only one way to get out of a trap and that is with a violent trend reversal.

The wedge is one of my most important tools that help to see big moves long before they happen. I though the USD was just in a big bear rally, but that $89 price level bottom early this year, changed my mind. I know that EWI has the USD as a bull market as well,  so I would just be confirming them from a Cycle degree perspective.

The rise in the US dollar is “deflation”, by any sense of the word, which is the cause of the imploding price of gold/oil and many other commodity prices. World wide asset prices have inflated so much which is all coming to an end when all asset prices start to deflate again.

The US dollar is in a major bull market that will not end in my lifetime as Supercycle (SC) degree wave 3 is still ahead of us, (2041) and Grand Supercycle degree wave 3 is at least another 30-years past that. (2071) I have what I call in-house developed indicators which I talk about,  but only my one on one clients get the detailed explanation. I have a “Wave Pool” which has a collection of 25 or so futures wave positions in it, with about another 25 ETF wave positions as well.

When some expert goes on a gold rant expecting $5000 gold then this forecast would instantly cause havoc with my wave counts when I’m wrong, but if my, “Wave Pool”, barely sends out a ripple, I know that this bullish gold forecast will never happen!

Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as the markets are always wrong. When the experts all start to sound the same, it always justifies taking the contrary position or point of view.

Any stock market herd of investors can never win, as markets will never allow the majority to take money from the same majroity of participants. The 80/20 Principle tells us that. (20% of the population owns 80% of all assets in the world)

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Euro 2001-2018 Review

Just like the US dollar is in a huge bull market so is the Euro as it makes up about 59% of the USD basket. Gold investors that think another huge leg up in gold is going to happen are ignoring the fact that the Euro was just in a bear market rally and new record lows will happen, by this fall. This would land us on a Primary degree wave 3, followed by yet another bear market rally before we bottom at a Supercycle degree “A” wave bottom sometime by 2041 or three years sooner. The Euro peak matches oils peak and not gold, so we have to be aware of this 3 year difference.  My last weeks Market Vane report only shows 46% bulls present which is still far from any extreme I may be expecting. Even gold is about the same so it’s not just one thing I rely on. All my futures wave counts are in what I call, “The Wave Pool”, which are all in-house created indicators that only a few one on one people get to see in any detail.  I also built a “Ratio Pool” and a “50-200-day MA Pool”.

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Australian Dollar Bear Market Update

Any currency that has supported any run in gold and silver sure have not been cooperative at all. It sure supports the bearish stance that I have. We just finished a Golden Cross, but the Death Cross is in the Australian dollars near future. That puts CAD and AUD on the same path and it represents deflation, as the US dollar is in a big bull market that very few people understand.  I think the AUD will play out a huge zigzag correction where part one may just finish this fall.

Either way,  new record lows in the Australian dollar will happen, as the last two year rally was a fake just like gold.

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US Dollar Intraday Flash Crash Review

This is just a raw data dump that captures what I think is a computer generated type of a Flash Crash! No human can execute in such a fashion. It also shows how stop sweepers work as millions get made by the markets hitting sell stop orders. The huge gap opened up but was instantly sealed right back up!  This US dollar has refused to die, because the US dollar bull market is far bigger than anyone would even dare think about. The US dollar can keep right on heading north right until November or so with gold below $800! Then we will see a USD crash that will surprise the majority again! The majority will never see the USD bull market coming but a few can.

Give it all until the end of the year to become very visible to everyone, after which the markets will be setting up for a major reversal!  This US dollar bull market is far from over and eventually gold and the general stock markets are going to sync up and stay that way for a very long time.  At a bare minimum the US dollar is on a 5 wave run in Primary degree and it will end on a Supercycle degree peak! Big deflation is coming folks and golds price crash in the next few years will reflect defaltion perfectly.

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UUP: US Dollar ETF Review

This is the ETF that tracks the US dollar and it will give us a different wave count as the 2014 low shows. UUP made another spike to the upside today which is far from finished as the US dollar is in a bull market of  Grand Supercycle degree or even Submillennium degree. A bull market in the US dollar is deflationary and will continue on its bullish path for a long time. I’m working 5 waves up in Primary degree as the 2008 bottom was one of my 4th wave bottoms in Cycle degree. I’m still very positive that the US dollar has an expanded flat with the 2018 bottom being wave 4 in Intermdeate degree. Techically this UUP ETF should break to new record highs until this fall, and then crash going into the first half of 2019. This Primary degree wave 4 crash will send the price of gold soaring, even though it may only last 5-8 months.

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Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart 2002-2018 Review

In late 2007 our CAD peaked, and then started to crash. The angle with few subdivisions is normal in a zigzag type of a crash. Cycle degree wave three peaked in 2007, and the entire formation sure looks like a zigzag from my perspective. This is what gold will eventually look like in about three years time, so we have lots of real world examples to look at.  Yes we had two bottoms in the Canadian dollar bear market, but many times we get three bottoms, like in a triangle. Gold investors need for the CAD to soar if the USD is going to plunge.

Since the 2016 bottom the CAD soared, but I see this as a classic 4th wave zigzag bear market rally. All bear market rallies retrace back to the point of origin and lower.  Until that plays out I remain very bearish, as our CAD has still a long way to fall. Commercials are net long already but I think the 50-200-day MA Death Cross has more power. The Death Cross has completed in the daily and weekly charts, with the monthly crossing still to come.

My Market Vane report only shows 50/50 bulls present which means nothing to me, as I look for skewed numbers, like only 6% bulls present. The  two days last week were 50 and 50, which I would like to see below 30% bulls. We also have a huge falling wedge which itself is very bullish, which will be for a future CAD bullish phase. This bearish phase is far from over as Canada is still going to get hit hard because we produce a lot of commodities.

 

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British Pound Weekly Chart Death Cross Review

So far the British Pound Death Cross has already happened across all three important time frames.(daily, weekly, monthly ) Some of my indicators are already turning bullish but I want to see 80% of my indicators turn bullish, not just 20% or so.

We can see that the commercials are long the GBP already by a substantial amount. The speculators are betting the opposite way and if they keep on turning bearish then they will be in a big bear trap. Commercials traders do not assume the same type of risk the speculators do as they work closer to the business than any speculators ever will.

If only 20% of my indicators are present then this is not nearly enough to cause a major reversal at this time.  New record lows in the GBP should still happen but, after that all bearish bets would have to be off the table.

Every Tuesday I get the Market Vane report and it had a low of only 33% bulls present. This is also decent, but it could sink to below 10 yet. The GBP is inside the US dollar basket so it’s not going to fly while the US dollar is still bullish. I’ve seen these setups before and extremes can become more extreme, before they reverse and soar the other way. We have 5 months left this year and these indicators should stiffen up as the months go by.

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US Dollar: Weekly Chart Golden Cross Review

Since so many things correlate to Intermediate degree 4th waves, I decided to keep my old wave count going. My Cycle degree 4th wave bottom in the US dollar stays after which it explodeded while stocks, gold, silver investments crashed. The entire planet was bearish on the USD back in 2008, but yet it turned and soared ignoring all fundamentals at that time. US dollar bear experts dropped like flies as their forecasts were all proven wrong.

I don’t escpecially like some of the positions but I sure think we are dealing with an expanded flat in Intermediate degree. An expanded flat always means a new record high will come. This new record would be above 104 on this futures chart. The next bull market peak to break will be 122, with the biggest price to retrace being 165!

On the monthly and daily charts, the Golden Cross has already happened, it is this weekly chart that needs another Golden Cross to happen. Three golden crosses on the US dollar sure looks like a bull market to me! Five waves up in Primary degree is what we need to complete wave 5 in Cycle degree. I will be making adjustments  along the way but the US dollar bull market has been unleashed, which will produce a deflationary crash that no one alive today has ever experienced.

Deflation is in our future, not some imaginary runaway inflation that the gold bulls must have to be right. It has nothing to do with printing money folks, it’s all about the velocity of any money in the economy at any given time. Ignoring the world fertility crash is a big mistake as billions of older generations will be gone by 2050 and retired people are frugal. When markets crash, couples stop having babies as uncertainty grows, so after a market crash, fertility rates crash as well.

As the US dollar keeps turning up, then this will drag the 50-day MA up into the 200-day MA and then all three time periods will have completed golden crosses.

That’s about as bullish for the USD as any simple technical indicator could ever tell us.

On the monthly chart I also have a huge falling wedge which is another very bullish indicator that I use. This bull market could keep going for the rest of the year but then be ready for a big USD crash that will send the gold price soaring again. There are those that see it coming, and then there is always the majority that will never see any crash coming.

 

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Euro Weekly Chart: Death Cross Update

I have made changes with some of my locations, but in the end the same wave 3-4 in Intermediate degree stays the same. Any wave 4 counter rally is a bear market rally and to confirm that, the Euro will eventually hit a new record low. It is the US dollar that turned into a safe haven currency, which will send the USD soaring in a massive bull market that only the deflationists may understand.EWI forecast of a deflationary crash is coming true and his bullish US dollar is also coming true.

The sad part about it is that this planet is going to suffer a massive deflationary presures the likes no one alive has every witnessed. Every single asset class including gold will suffer severe price shocks in the next 3 or so years that will boggle our minds.  I will not spend my time counting all the little intraday waves as I’m not a day traders and never will be. All I need is three degree levels as they spawn huge moves where someone can make some decent money on.

Look back up and we can see our first Death Cross and the results of this DC. I’d say without a doubt 2014 would have been an excellent short bet  for those paying attention.

Once the EURO soared again in 2017 it took a long time for the Golden Cross to form, but this is always the case. On the Euro daily chart the Euro Death Cross has already happened and now on this weekly chart another Death Cross is ahead of us. Our CAD is in the same leaking boat and so the EU zone is not the only currnecy that’s going to take a hit.

The commercials are not all that distorted, and my Market Vane report still needs to get rid of more Euro bulls, so much more downside to the Euro should happen.

We are in the same situation as the top of 2008, when every asset class will fail except for the US dollar. In 2008 the USD soared as everything crashed. This was a brief intense 8 month horror show, but this time we could end up with a 2 year decline doing the same thing. The world is in a massive real estate bubble never before seen in history, and those rich people that think that real estate prices are going to keep flying at 10% a year are going to get shocked, when no more buyers show up!

In Canada, our real estate bubble has already burst, and it will get much worse in the long run.  Nobody is talking about the world fertility crash, which shocked me the first time I researched it. Massive deflation is in our future, not massive inflation. As usual the US FED is still fighting inflation making matters far worse.

Printing money will never solve this problem as it is part of a much bigger 30 year cycle and even 100 year cycle. Little Iceland took down the entire world in 2007-2008, so it will not take much for any other country to implode as well. Can gold crash to below $800? You bet it can, as that will be just the opening shot. Facebook is another example in what’s coming, and all those gold investors will get the shock of their lives once gold breaks that $1047 price level. I have a silver 10 ounce coin bet on it and once it crosses this red line, my gold cycles consulting fees will explode. No money manger will get to see my gold cycles research unless they drop a pure silver 10-Troy ounce coin in my hand first, and that is only for a 2-3 hour session!

 

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US Dollar Big Picture Review: Inflation Or Deflation?

The top chart is work in progress. I work out my wave positions from memory in the shape of pictures, then I try to confirm it (offline) by working on my paper print out wave positions. With difficult wave positions, I always work from paper as the rest of the world has their heads stuck in their computers or cellphones. If you were to test the wavers on the entire internet, I bet not a single expert waver can produce the same wave count offline and on paper in front of my eyes!

I have some huge important gaps in the USD wave positions but I’m very confindent, that the USD is in a much bigger bull market than any expert on this planet can presently imagine. The gold bugs are escpecially wrong if the the dollar remains bullish until 2101. (Submillennium Degree wave 3) GSC degree wave 3 would end about 2071.

It’s between major peaks of the USD and its corrections,  that will produce wild gold bullish phases that will blow your mind.

Folks, there is a time when to invest in gold and there is a time when to “SELL” gold. Holding gold at the 2011 peak is the worst mistake that investors make as 2011 was a 30 year gold cycle mania peak. Not some correction in an ongoing bull market where they expect $5000 gold. This is not going to happen as gold will hit  below $500 long before gold $5000. They got their zeros wrong!  I was always scratching my head how the goldbulls can expect a super bull market, in gold when the USD has so little room to implode.

The 2018 low in the USD (89) was a critical clue in all this which turned my USD bearish sentiments into USD bullish sentiments. My 5 waves down I thought counted out great to the degree, but then when it took off, very bullish patterns started and I had to switch to a big bull market instantly. We can’t be asleep at the switch, as every major turning  requires us to switch 180%.

I made up two of these but with the bigger trend lines that I see. Just the big wedge alone, for this length of time suggests a huge USD bull market is coming, which is deflationary to say the least. The USD has turned into a safe-haven currency and I for one switched to USD trading as fast as I could, and I have no regreats in doing so.

What do you think we will find if we hunt for a Golden Cross in the US dollar? On daily charts this has already happened so we have to use the Golden Crossings in a bull market. The rest of the world is sitting on Death Crosses, while the USD has just finished a Golden Cross in the daily charts. Sooner or later the USD should see a new record high, which will shock the gold investor, in how could this happen?

I just want readers to know that even though my wave counts are iffy at this point, I’m always working on the bigger picture. I’ve been at this for over 20 years trying to solve the USD Anigma code and I will not give up until I die.  It is the world birthrate crash that is doing it, that all forecasters are ignoring. I have relatives that are going to get very hurt in the next 3 years, as they are all “invested” in real-estate!  I’m a trader where cash flow is king, and nothing else matters. USD Capital preservation is going to be the key, as all other currencies are going to get crushed!  I have to make a living from my wave positions, and I would be wiped out pretty quick if I can’t make a 180 degree turning when I need to.

I have recently told my client in what I see in gold, and he has no problem with it, even though he has a good gold silver stash for his son and grandson.

In the next few years we will see how financial advisors that got you into gold acually know where they are. How many of them will call up their clints and say, “I think that gold is going to crash, and we should cash out now!”

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Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart Bear Market Rally?

Again we can see how much hell and havoc a Death Cross can bring as it forecast the implosion of the CAD back in 2013.  The CAD has been in a declines and shows not signs of imminent reversal. Besides where’s it going to go to. Gold bulls are wrong if our Canadian dollar keeps heading south. The commercial traders are net long the CAD already but it sure looks like numbers don’t matter when another Death Cross is coming up.  We had our Death Cross, then just recently another Golden Cross which is extremely bullish right?  Well no, as another Death Cross is now due and it would only take another small dip in the CAD and the 200-day MA will get sliced in two.

The CAD 5th wave decline could end up being so bunched up that it will become difficult to track. Eventually the 4th wave in Minor degree will cause ultimate confusion with many over lapping wave structures. It’s the final ending plunge that could get very long. Sure commercials reports are extremely important but those folks have far less risk than what the speculators have, and the numbers can stay skewed for a very long time.

The speculators are the ones that are increasing their short positions so they are geared up for any CAD decline. We can always count on the speculators to get into a trap as they are very good at it.   I have what I call a “Wave Pool” which can contain 50 asset classes and their wave counts all bubbling and boiling in relationship to each other.

When some wild forecast comes out and this goes against the grain of anyone of my wave counts in the “pool” that chart will bounce or do nothing. When any expert or real world event does not stir up the pool then this news is irrelevant and has no real impact on any other wave counts I have. The short explanation is if some wild forecast does not force me to run and change wave positions then this forecast will be wrong and another worthless opinion.

The wave action in this pool are my bullshit detectors and I got 50 of them working for me at all times. About 25 futures wave positions and 25 ETF positions. It was amazing to see this work as I have listened to wild forecasts that just shocks the gold bulls. Yet not a single wave in my pool needed to get changed one bit. All my wave counts in this “Wave Pool” did not miss a beat which confirms the majority of what this wild forecaster had said would happen. I will elaborate on this pool action more and until I saw it happen for the first time I wasn’t paying attention. You can bet I’m paying attention to it now and have been for sometime. We all need a bull shit detector as this world is throwing out crap that needs a Sherlock Holmes detective to figure out in what the facts are.

Any good wave count should never harm a good trading account as I use the EWP as a “value added” analytical tool. A good wave count should above all save you money if we can avoid a meltdown. If any wave count does any damage to your trading account then we better throw that wave count out the window as fast as we can. Elliott wave is all about enhancing value not destroying it. If any wave count causes you to miss a major move, then it’s not enhancing your world or mine is it?

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Euro Monthly Chart Death Cross Location!

At this time my Cycle degree wave 3 peak may be questionable  if that location can remain as I may have to switch the Euro to a 4th wave top in Cycle degree. I need time to think on that but I sell have lots of time to think on it some more. The entire idea of a 5 wave decline in Primary degree doesn’t need to get changed just yet, for any reason.

In other words don’t fret if I talk about a big degree change in the Euro as it would have little impact on any present wave count that needs to get done. How this futures cash chart reacts and looks like in the Forex world, it may not react the same. This Euro chart is still bearish because of the 4th wave rally is just another bear market rally and “B” wave bottom might get completely retraced by the end of this year.

It now doesn’t take Elliott Wave rocket science anymore to figure out that the Euro is in deep trouble. What I say about the Euro is inversely related back to the US dollar. If the Euro is in a bear market then the USD is still in a bull market. This fact can not be undone as the Euro is not going to get kicked out of the US dollar basket any time soon.

The Death Cross on this Euro monthly chart, has past but I don’t think I have to remind readers anymore how bearish these Death Cross indicators are, as the 50-day MA line is going to lead the Euro down.  Hey, our CAD is going to implode right along with you guys so don’t think we are in some kind of bastion of safety. Canada is in serious trouble when all the real estate markets implode. This whole structure of waves looks like it is up too high, and you are right! These are diagonal waves to were the final count down can be a very long extension that will just boggle the mind.

All those gold investors will get burnt in the process because they are waiting for the Euro and our CAD to soar. You can wait a long time for that as every bear market rally retraces itself and heads to a new low. How many major bullish phases did the Euro have and each one completely retraced itself.  Our present Euro is  in another bear market rally so much more downside pain will come.

The run of Euro holders into the dollar continues as the US dollar becomes safe-haven as the world currencies implode.  A rising dollar is deflationary  and this in turn kills gold as an investment asset. There is a time to hold but there is also a time to become a trader as violent swings occur where investors get shredded becuase they stayed invested to long.  This world is not safe to Buy& Hold anymore as it is a Buy-Low sell high world that can generate better returns if you know how to bet the markets in either direction.  Having the ability and courage to go short at specific times always allows you to seek opportunities and major reversals. I will focus on the gold sectors as that is what I understand as I have experienced catching the falling GDX in 2008. Wild and moving markets is where I feel comfortable with as the trading opportunities are going to be fantastic if we are on the ball and are prepared at all times.

Commercials are still net short the Euro but not at any real extreme just yet.

 

 

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Euro Daily Chart: Return Of The Bear?

I believe that the Euro finished a “C” wave bull market, charging up to a 4th wave peak in Intermediate degree. To confirm that this Euro peak was just a bear market rally then the Euro has to retrace everything, back to the point of orgin. This would be below my black line.   There may still be some counter rally moves, but eventually the Euro will implode. Our CAD will implode as well, so we  are in the same sinking ship, so to speak. We also finished a Death Cross which most investors ignore, or don’t even know about. We have tons of tools in our tool box, to draw every conceivable indicator we want,  which I give value in using the 50-200-day MA to confirm my wave counts with. After a while we won’t need them, and we can put them back in the box for many months.

Gold bugs need the Euro to go up, to support their bullish claims. They also need for the Canadian dollar to soar, but we know that’s not going to happen any time soon. I have to double check on a monthly chart, but we should end on a wave 3 in Primary degree. This move could be very violent and fast so we have to plan for a reversal once it sets up.

Idealy I want the US Dollar to break a new record high as well, even just for a second!

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Bullish Update!

I tried these wave positions several times in the past but I have to bring it back as the USD could be in a bigger bullish move than anyone even suspects at this time. At the 2018 low I was expecting a wave 2 rally, which even has returned to the previous high where I would expected the wave 2 rally to end. Even the Death Cross on this weekly chart is showing, which is extremely bearish for the US dollar. Don’t get fooled by this Death Cross as they are all lagging indicators. The sequence I’m  looking for in a bull market is GC,DC,GC.

We had the first Golden Cross back in 2012 and look at that wild bullish move that it gave. Our next crossing should be a Death Cross, which has happened. Again they are lagging indicators as this market could turn where the 50 day line would crank up and slice through the 200 day line.  A very short life span of a Death Cross for sure. It may 10 weeks for the next Golden Cross to happen, but when it does it could spew out a major bullish phase surprising all USD watchers.

The Euro is melting down as the rest of the world currencies are in worse shape than the US dollar is. Safe-Haven in the US dollar? Now there is a real fundamental switch. Most analysts haven’t even suspected that this can happen, as the majority is always wrong at the extremes. Gold bugs need for the US dollar to implode, and the Euro and our Canadian dollar to soar, but none of that has materialized, in fact, the very opposite has been happening. The commercial positions are still short the Euro, so this has to reverse if the Euro is still to soar. Our Canadian dollar is heading into the toilet, which does not support any sustained gold rally at all.

For this US dollar bullish move to get confirmed, the US dollar “must” breakout by hitting a new bull market record high. Once it does that, then we could get into some violent US dollar moves. This  will drive gold bugs crazy as the US dollar has a direct or inverse relationship with gold. I’m a contrarian analysts and if I see that gold bugs are acting stupid, I have no guilty feelings, or hangups, in shorting them.  The only obligation I have is to find the best long trade setups for my friends and myself, and warn of major impending reversals and crashes. This happens at the Intermediate and Primary degree levels the most.

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Euro Weekly Chart: Bear Market Impending Death Cross

The majority willl never know what a bear market rally is, as the bulls only care that it keeps going up.  All trends must come to an end which the Euro has started to do a month ago. To help the gold  bugs to be on the right side, they need the Euro to go up, not down.  Arguing about if the Euro is on a big bullish path or on a much larger bearish path is futile because the markets are “Always Right” It’s our opinions or premises that are always wrong.

Bear markets always retrace their entire bullish move from where it started or originated from. That would be close to the bottom wedge line.  When that happens then the Euro has confirmed that  it’s present bull market was nothing but a fake. Since the 2008 peak the Euro has done this a minimum of 3 times, and is set to do it again.  The anticipated Death Cross (DC) on this Euro weekly chart is next in line but it may take well over 50 days for us to find out.

On the daily chart the Euro Death Cross has already been hit so I know more bearish downside is still to come. Rats are jumping ship and heading over to a new Titanic called the US dollar .  The US dollar is acting out its safe-haven status which contains two Golden Crosses already. Counting the crossings is the key as they will alternate in a DC, GC, DC fashion. There was a huge spread between the 50 and 200 day lines. The 50 day average has come up and sliced through the 200 day line creating a Golden Cross.

What should come next on this weekly chart is the dreaded Death Cross. It should speed up the Euro decline, with our Canadian dollar being on the same path.  After the Euro tanks to new lows, I expect another long counter rally which will also end up being a Euro bull trap. Spotting the Golden Cross bull trap is pretty obvious at this point, but in the end it may take into the fall or March 2019 to play out.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Golden Crosses Update.

 

In early 2018 the US dollar hit the 89 price target but at the exact same time an extension of the trend line was possiable. The US dollar is acting as a safe-haven go to currency which not to many gold investors are aware of.  With the US dollar still being in a bullish funk, two Golden Crosses have already formed. This is the very opposite of our CAD.

The problem is that all Death or Golden Crosses are lagging indicators at best, so I hardley use them. If the US dollar short term crash was just a correction, (Expanded).  Then the USD must prove this out by pushing to a new record high. Even if it only squeaks past the top by the smallest amount, the USD decline must get completley retraced from the point of orgin.

 

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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Death Cross Update.

Death Crosses just keep on coming so I added our dollar to the club.  A Death Cross  is a serious indicator that a longer decline is still in progress. Our CAD is crashing and it will continue to crash until a new record low in the CAD is established. This is not hard to understand if you believe our CAD just came from an inverted wave count. This means a bear market rally has taken place. The markets must confirm this bear rally by retracing the entire bullish cycle, that started with the 2016 low. I switched the CAD to a weekly chart and I saw it contained two Death Crosses with this one being the second. Death Crosses are not short term phenomena, as they forecast longer and deeper moves to come.

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