T-Bonds Daily Chart Review

The bull market in T-Bonds started in early 1982 and is still going at this time.  I would love to see T-Bonds break above 178 to help confirm that the bull market is not dead yet.

Worst case scenario we could slip into a triangle type. correction so that it can use up much more time.

Commercials are far from hold very bearish positions so my confidence in the bullish scenario remains.

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T-Bond 1981-2019 Review

This T-Bond chart bottomed in 1981 and has been in a bullish pattern ever since. 38 years of a bullish phase that has seen many crashes but always resumed its bullish path and then went higher.

I think the bigger trend is a Supercycle degree pattern and if we add 60 years or part of the 120-year cycle to the 1981 bottom, we get a date of 2041.  2041 is my  SC degree wave 3 peak which for many is so too far into the future.

I checked many of the commercial hedger’s positions and many are net long but not by that much. In otherwords, the bullish march of T-Bonds should keep right on going.

Investors can have a mini selling panic at any time but the trend should remain intact. I don’t think there is an immediate need to panic out of T-Bonds.

The choppy nature of T-Bonds is very normal and has to be counted like a giant ending diagonal. In the end, a new all-time high record may peak with the solar cycle 24 bottom. Many don’t care about any solar cycles but it’s the sun that controls everything on earth including all prices.

I will not count any intraday charts as I just don’t have the time to cover as many asset classes as I have.

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T-Bonds Bullish To the Bone! Weekly Chart Review.

The Fed has pretty well said that no more rate increases will happen in 2019.  Everybody on the planet knows about it and investors loved it by buying stocks.  All this is fine and dandy but when they stop rate increases, a recession usually follows. There is no way that the world will escape a recession and China is leading the pack. T-Bonds have been in a bull market since 1981. Sure we had major Bond crashes in the past but T-Bonds charged higher after each correction/crash.

I counted out the top as an expanded pattern this time but the end result should be the same as T-Bonds will charge to new record highs once again.

All the commercial hedgers are still net long across many different maturities so it is futile to look for the great bond crash that many experts expect.

There still are different choices for wave count I can have as connecting zigzags is the name of the game in the T-bond pattern.  Over 36 years of a choppy diagonal wave structure and its still bullish.

The odds that 1982 was a Supercycle degree wave 2 bottom is hard to understand by most, but T-Bonds also had a 120-year bear market which might even be harder to understand. ( Zigzag from about 1861 to 1982) 30-60 and 90-year cycles are also all part of it.

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T-Bond Bull Market: Just A Correction!

Since the October 8th low T-Bonds have been on a wild bullish ride that is now going through a 4th wave correction in Minute degree.  The Oct 8th low is a 4th wave low in Intermediate degree.

T-Bonds have been in a bull market since 1981 and show no signs of a major reversal just yet. I’m sure we may see a “Bond War” in the future where several other countries dump US treasuries in an effort to kill the US dollar. From 1998 to 2000 T-Bonds imploded in a very fast move that resembles a crash. Since 2000 T-Bonds have been in a bullish phase that defies description as it is full of choppy waves which work best as diagonal wave structures.

T-Bonds are the only asset class that is in an SC degree bull market and if we are lucky any new record high could be pointing us to a Cycle degree wave 1 peak. This will not happen until all 5 waves in Minor degree have fully developed.

Tuesday’s Market Vane Report showed a high of 53% bulls present. That’s a far cry from the 83% 24-month reading we did come from.

The commercial traders still have healthy net long positions across many of the different maturity years. As I post T-Bonds are still acting bearish, but when it turns we should see another leg up.

At the 158 price level, T-Bonds will face some stiff resistance, which should also produce another correction.

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T-Bond Weekly Chart Update

This is going to be just a quick update as the last 3-4 years could be an expanded pattern as well.  I love to recognize expanded tops but we have to be careful not to hallucinate an expanded pattern where none exist.  From the 2016 top, I can work 5 waves down in Minuette degree which we can’t see if I switched to a monthly chart setting.  Since 1982 T-Bonds have been in a bull market that has a long way to go and will break out to new record highs in the next few years. What is special about all this and other T-Bonds is that it is the only asset class that is in an SC degree bull market and it all points to a potential wave 1 in Cycle degree. It may sound insane but T-Bond trends run in 120-year trends made up with 60-year cycles. The first 60-year cycle will be due in 2041-2042 so only the younger wave count crowd will be able to confirm this.

Without a doubt, T-Bonds are in a diagonal bull market and we can best see this with wave 1 in SC degree being closer to 1861! Imagine a bear market zigzag 120 years long!

The Fed has been raising rates which I see as no longer being justified. Gold is mute and oil has crashed. Much of the talk is just pycholocial warfare but any higher rates drain the liquity out of the markets, which is what higher rates are designed todo.

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T-Bonds Daily Chart Bull Market Update.


This is just a quick update as this T-Bond chart is off and running on another bullish phase that should produce a new record high in an ongoing  37 year bull market. This bull market will not end folks as it could be on a Supercycle degree wave 3 that is far from finished. Heck if we’re lucky a wave 1 in Cycle degree is still ahead of us. Checking the T-Bonds and commercial traders positions show they are mostly all net long. This helps me to turn bullish on these T-Bond Charts. Even today we had a small spike develop, which should turn into another correction.

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T-Note Weekly Chart Update


Waiting for the Fed to see what it is going to do seems to be the favorite pastime for Fed watchers.  They may still raise rates but at the same time, they can also “Pop” the market bubble top.  What we have is a potential completed zigzag, which means this is a correction in a 37-year bull market. Even after the Fed does serious damage, and starts dropping rates, that will be no guarantee that the market even cares. They dropped rates during the 2008 crash many times and the markets ignored all of them.

Rates are dropping already as demand for loans are drying up! T-Bonds are in a bull market that will push to new world record highs, which looks like we could be heading to a Cycle degree wave 1 Peak.  This could take years to play out but a big correction may have nothing to do with the Fed as market forces can force T-Bond prices to fluctuate wildly.

In order for this to get confirmed as a correction then T-Bonds must soar to new highs eventually.

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T-Bond Bullish Review!

So far the October low in T-Bonds has held and T-Bonds have been in a bullish rally since. We also have a higher low which is also a very bullish sign.  The Fed is already making it very clear that a “Pause” in rate hikes is coming in 2019! Rate hikes have drained the markets of liquidity and are killing the stock market bull run at the same time.


The Fed may not talk about the falling stock market, but it will do everything in its power to stop the markets from imploding.  China has also made it pretty clear that they will do everything in their power to save their stock markets from crashing. This is nothing new, but dropping rates in the 2007-2009 crash pushed stocks lower, as investors just wanted out at that time, and I’m sure this will happen again as T-Bonds can keep right on soaring.

I may have to change my bottom wave count in the future, but for now, a bullish phase is what I’m looking at. I want to see more evidence this T-Bond rally is serious, as diagonal runs look and even act like bear market rallies. TLT touched a new record low and it has started to rally as well.

T-Bonds have been in a bull market since 1981 and T-Bonds have a 120-Year cycle to them that can also divide into 60-year cycles as they did from 1861 to 1981. When bonds rise in price then this takes the pressure off the Fed to keep raising rates.

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T-Bonds 1981-2016 Review


This is the December T-Bond chart showing the bull market that started in 1981 and has churned its way up until 2016 about 37 years later.  2016 was the bottom of Intermediate degree 4th wave  correction bottom in stocks. TLT has already pushed lower, so that instantly calls for looking into an alternate position.  1981 was also the bottom of a 120-year bear market, which I think is wave 2 in SC degree and that another 120-year bullish phase is in effect. Corrections and crashes are thrown in to keep all the analysts guessing. Two parallel lines, one to highlight the support trendline,  and the other to show the trend across the tops.

There is no way of really knowing if Cycle degree wave 1 has completed, but I’m sure this crash would not be enough. T-Bonds are a diagonal type of a bull market which all commodities run under!

The commercials did add to the short positions last week, which pushed TLT to a new low. T-Bonds still have to follow TLT and this may clear up once all the midterm election results are digested later tonight.

As we can see T-Bond crashes in the past have been dramatic like in the 1998-1999 crash. Not a single crash since 1981 was followed by a bear market as the crashes recovered and then continued to new record highs. I expect about the same this time but where we are in this potential Cycle degree peak is still uncertain. In the long run, rising rates are not good for the gold price as investors get a return in T-Bonds but gold only goes up or down. Look what happened to gold in 1980 which produced a bear market that never ended until 1999!

I may change this big count back to 5 waves in Primary degree, but at this time I will keep this zigzag going.



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T-Bonds Intraday Bullish Review


T-Bonds hit a bottom Oct, 9th and since then has been producing higher lows. Longer term I’m very bullish on T-Bonds, but T-Bonds contain diagonals that are very difficult to tell if the trend will continue. I started this bullish wave count with very small degree waves and will build on that until a wave 1 in Minor degree comes to an end. T-Bonds have a long records going back to 1861, which took 120 years to correct, into the 1981 bottom. T-Bonds produced another major peak on July 11, 2016, after which it crashed again, ending this October.

I sure would like to see more bullish action as that would take the pressure off raising rates. I will keep this brief as anything can still happen in the short term, and we need more time and distance to be confident enough to have a real bottom.

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T-Bonds Bull Market Update



You may be hearing about US treasuries being dumped or sold off, but when the bearish news is rampant, and more rate increases seem imminent, then the markets do the exact opposite and reverse their trends. The bull market has reversed after every major crash or correction since 1981 and I’m sure it’s doing it again. T-Bonds hit a bottom on Oct, 9th at the 136.500 price level, and so far it’s still holding.  It’s not about rates rising that is killing the “T-Bonds”, but it’s the falling T-Bond prices that forces or allows the Fed to increase rates. The Fed is basing all rate increases on lagging indicators and if I’m right then sooner or later they will have to “pause”.

Since the 2000 crash bottom, we have had a solid bull market with some wild and crazy overlapping wave structures. “All” commodities can create these choppy waves, and that has been going on since the Little Ice Age bottom in 1500 CME.  T-Bonds are on a Supercycle degree wave 3 rally that has 120-year cycles to them. From the 1861 peak, T-Bonds took 120 years to complete a zigzag correction, and I’m sure the next real bullish phase top will not happen until 2101! 2041 would be a 60-year top and my Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. Of course, I can never confirm that as that would be a job for a very young analyst to do.

Two years and 6 months with well over 1 million page views, not a single budding wave analyst has expressed any interest in switching to Cycle degree wave analysis. With this lack of interest, chances are good I may shut down this blog permanently once solar cycle #25 starts to crank up in 2022.

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T-Bonds December Intraday Chart: Potential Bottom?



Shortly after I posted the big T-Bond chart, the T-Bond market at the intraday scale hit a bottom. Of course, that could be just luck, but T-Bonds produced a very bullish pattern because a set of 5 waves started to form.  It can still be a fake bottom, but that should clear up this week if possible.   The news changed quickly as they are saying the “pressure” to keep rates moving higher, was eased!  I do not fill out all the little micro moves, as that’s for people that have nothing else better to do.  If we can count all the little waves, then how come we can’t see a bull market coming?

This morning confirmed the correction, but in order for it to remain true, T-Bonds must not produce another bear market low.  President Trump is already giving the Fed the gears, so the in-fighting has become pretty clear to me.  Every Fed has done this in the past, which has always popped any bubble,  going on at that time. If this specific correction doesn’t hold, then there will be another, as T-Bonds are in a bull market, not a bear market like the majority think!

All the Commercial reports regarding Bonds show bullish commitments. Bearish wave counts will always fail if we keep ignoring the COT reports, or if we have bearish wave counts, along with every other T-Bond bear!  I will keep this short, as gold and gold stocks could also go much lower.

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T-Bonds Bull Market Supercycle Degree Update!


Here is a cute little chart that shows the dynamics that goes on when we look at bonds. It is a bit of a chicken and egg story in which comes first. I also flip this saying around, “When Bond Prices Fall, Interest Rates Rise”.

The Fed can only raise rates in what the bond market and the 30-Day Fed fund rate allows them to do. The Fed runs on fundamental data, which I know are always lagging indicators. I for one do not believe in rates getting out of control, as the FED is always fighting the wrong battle at the wrong times.

The future threat is “deflation” folks, not inflation. If you don’t believe that just yet, then I beg you to spend the entire day searching the internet with, ” 10,000 Boomers retiring every day for the next 19 years”. Economists, climate change models, and investors are ignoring this biggest demographic shift in history! This has been going on since 2011 and will continue until about 2030.

This demographic shift has huge implications for all types of real estate investments, or static investments like gold and silver. Below is the monthly T-Bond chart price that hit a 120-year low in 1981. It has been bullish through all types of crashes and bear markets since then.

I tried the 1981 bottom position in GSC degree, but GSC degree has too many time forecast loopholes in it, so I dropped down one degree to a Supercycle degree wave 2. 5 waves up in Cycle degree is what we are looking at, and wave 1 in Cycle degree has not arrived yet.

I was suspicious about the T-Bond top containing an expanded pattern, which means the asset class in question, should make another new record bull market high. When we add 120 years ( 4, 30-year cycles) to the 1981 bottom we get the year 2101, which is my Submillennium degree wave 3 peak!

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T-Bond Wave Counting Example From March, 1980!

Digging around the Internet for big historical charts, I found this very interesting T-Bond wave count. I don’t know who the author was but that’s how everything was counted like in those days. In those days it was just before the end of the T-Bond crash, and to top it off, he was seeing 5 waves down in Primary degree. I had no problems in deciphering his degree list as it looks like it came from an “old school” degree list. 38 years later I have the same 5 waves down in Primary degree. The only difference is that the “b, c” in Cycle degree should be switched around. The “b” wave in Cycle degree should be at the top.

If I had to assemble a crew of wave analysts, I would hire him on the spot. I sure can’t say that about any wave analysts today. I never had decent charts until well into the early 1990’s as all I had was a Text-based internet.

T-Bonds came to a 120-year bear market bottom in 1981, which I see as a wave 2 in Supercycle degree. All my large degree analytical Elliott Wave work is done off-line with big print-outs. 38 years later I end up confirming in what he thinks he is seeing.

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T-Bond Supercycle Degree Wave (III) 1981-2041


I have been working on T-Bonds, as there is a much bigger bull market here, that anyone would even dare suggest. I have a chart that starts in 1861 and T-Bonds crashed for 120 years in a spectacular giant zigzag, ending in 1981! Two-60 year moves made up the bear market with one bottom being in 1920!

I will drop the GSC degree T-bond analytics, and drop all my wave positions down by one degree. Can you imagine 5 waves up in Cycle degree? They will not end until SC degree wave 3 ends in 2041.

1981 is the big time period from where the time count, starts from, so 1981+30 years ± 1 year = 2011!  2011 is the year that stocks went on a rampage, and gold/gold stocks imploded.

I believe wave 1 in Cycle degree may still be ahead of us, but that will take work to confirm if wave one in Cycle degree has already completed. I may start SC degree T-Bonds as a separate page, as T-Bonds are directly related to interest rates.

At this time all my COT reports do not suggest any huge shifts, as commercials are net long across the majority of futures that are interest rate sensitive. The Fed is still fighting inflation, but that will end up in a bust.



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T-Bond Monthly Chart 1981-2018 Review


This is just a simple version, but we have to back to 1981 when this big bullish phase started. There is definitely a 60-year cycle to T-Bonds which is just 2, 30 cycles back to back. 1981+60 gets us to 2041, which is my SC degree wave 3 top as well. This bull market is far from over as there is no threat of inflation. All the commercial COT numbers show that they have net long positions in everything related to bonds. This does not support a bigger bearish phase at all. Even the 30-day Fed fund rate has been stagnating, showing that the Fed may be forced to pause or slow down the rate increases, and maybe even reverse.

I need lots of work to find a better fit, but a new bullish phase to new record high bond prices sure would help to confirm my bullish outlook.

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T-Bonds 1981-2016 Review

If we start back in 1981 we can see that T-Bonds started a rally that carried on for 35 years until it popped in 2016.  The first thing we see in this bull market are massive price swings in both directions. The waves in this bull market constantly overlap at critical times, which doesn’t allow clean impulse waves to form, except for very small degree sequences. 

These are not impulse waves, but you could force them into a 5th wave bull market. I counted the entire bull market as a Cycle degree 4th wave, which means that T-Bonds were in a huge 35 year bear market rally. This is about as close to a Fibonacci 34 years as we can get, and the only question is if the bonds are still going to add one more leg up?

Recent fundamental news had traders create a sell off, as the government drags its heels on tax reform.  As bonds decline this will keep the pressure on rates to go up.  Governments can only change rates when market forces allow them to do it.  We can already see that with the crash of the Fed Fund rates. 

Our present rally was also very choppy so that increases the odds of another leg down and not up.  At present, any rally was very choppy so the pressure could be for bonds to head down as well. 

In the long run, the wave pattern would be a 5th wave decline, so we have to wait and see, if the decline will be a better formed diagonal. Technically speaking, we should get 5 waves down in Primary degree, which is the opposite of the Primary degree 5 wave bull market I anticipate in the general stock markets. 

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T-Bonds Intraday Bull Market Review

T-Bonds have been on a run that sure looks like it can fit into an impulse wave, but in the last 4 days or so T-Bonds have started to correct.  This June contract is also in its dying days as the next chart will have to be the September contract month. 

I will keep my commentary on the short side, but only posted it as impulse waves can be very exciting to work on and they sure give us an experience, in counting out 5 waves sequences.   What we don’t know for sure, is if we will get a new record high, sometime in our future.  I have already spent well over a decade trying to decipher the 35 year bull market and the one conclusion I have come to, is that we are wasting our time if we don’t understand diagonal wave counting.

This chart is only a very small portion of what can be an impulse. Yes the T-Bonds have recently spiked again, but we may not be finished our present correction just yet.  

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T-Bonds Intraday Bull Market Update

The very big bull market in T-Bonds have been in progress since the bottom in 1981. Then in mid 2016 the T-bond bull market took a big hit and crashed down into the March 2017 bottom. This mid 2016 top, terminated close to a 35 year bull market, which is about as close to a Fibonacci 34 years as we can get. 

The “B” wave bottom is in Minor degree, so technically we would need to get 5 waves up in Minute degree.   The April 2017 peak is just too small to be in a Minute degree wave 1 already, so the above wave count is adjusted down by one degree. It also means that I’m scraping the bottom of the degree list, as I used up parts of Minscule degree, which is the last on the list of 15 that is used in the EWP book. 

After we have used up all the degree levels, and still get far too many waves, then chances are high my degrees were too low to start with.   There is a good chance that this bullish run can go to new record highs, but T-Bonds may have an alternate idea in where they want to go to.

This entire chart can also fit into a “C’ wave bull market, but as part of an expanded 4th wave rally.  We still have a long way to go  before we even get close to this potential “C” wave top. Once a 5 wave sequence starts, nothing will derail this 5 wave run until it shows itself with any and all extensions. Of course, any bullish phase can be a big bearish rally, in which the big bull market ends up dying and another major leg down materializes. 

I see the entire T-Bond bull market as a potential Cycle degree 4th wave, with the “AB3” wave in Primary degree already completed. The two sets of 5 waves, can only be calculated looking at the 35 year pattern as two diagonal waves. Pure impulse waves are next to impossible to see and count out, so this is a pretty good indication that the T-Bond market contains diagonal wave structures.  Diagonals belong to the 5 wave family of patterns, so by themselves they can never be used as a single correction. 

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T-Bonds Weekly Chart: Head&Shoulder Review

It seems that I have been working on the T-Bond bull market off and on for decades, but the 35 year bull market was so choppy that impulse waves were next to impossible to find. It wasn’t until about 2013 that I started to focus on looking at the markets from a diagonal perspective. 

 Good impulse waves are next to impossible to find, in a diagonal bull market, but yet many experts count them like impulse waves.  They should be counted like zigzags connected together, with the ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4 and ABC5  labels. A diagonal sequence belongs to the 5 wave impulse sequence, and in the book they call it an ending diagonal. Triangles can act just like diagonals as well, but that still  may be much harder to confirm at this stage. I’m pretty sure that the T-Bond bull market is a Cycle degree, but at this time it is unclear if this was a triangle 4th wave rally or a 5th wave diagonal rally. Both options are just about always open. 

T-Bonds are sitting right at a H&S pattern, and they have started to rally. This bond top, sure looks like there is a potential expanded flat hiding in plain sight, and that the May crash bottom is just the start of a “C” wave bull market phase in Minor degree.

All I would have to do is drop the Minute degree start, down one degree level, and nothing else would need to be changed. Any potential start sure has been looking like pretty good impulse waves, so that would mean most all the other waves will follow along, until we run into 5th waves. This “C” wave sure would be a nice refresher for a change.

I labeled the potential peak above the new record high, but it can go much further  as “C” waves in a zigzags can stretch far out of proportion. Nothing is even in the waves of the real world, and the 1929-1932 crash is a clear example of how zigzags can get bent out of shape. 

The T-Bond bull market may not have died in 2016, and exploring the options would be the smart thing to do.  Either way a new record high would have to be achieved in the longer term. Short term we need 5 waves up in Minute degree, so we have a long  way to go before it is completed. 

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T-Bonds Intraday Bullish Review

For the last few days I have been looking at the huge T-Bond bull market which started way back in 1981. It was a bull market that was so choppy, that it can only work as a diagonal wave structure. In mid 2016 this huge bull market came to an abrupt halt, and then proceeded to crash. Bonds have been in a rally, which had a potential wave 1 top in Minute degree, and then crashed which sure counts out as a zigzag.  This zigzag crash gives us a clue that this T-Bond market will retrace all of wave 2. 

Following the wave 2 bottom, it sure looks like another impulse wave has started which could be in a 4th wave correction.  We still would need to add on a 5th wave. This 5th wave could extend, but would have to end on another wave 1 peak.  I can spend days on the big bull market and still not come up with a viable large degree wave count. I have to hunt up a very big historical chart,  as going back 36 years just doesn’t cut it.  

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T-Bonds Intraday Crash Review: Potential Mini Bear Trap?



I like to have the time to read the COT reports on the weekends, and I look for the very skewed set of numbers, between the speculators and the commercial players. Extreme differences have not really been that obvious, but the next best thing is when partial numbers look just as good. Scanning anything related to bonds, I saw all commercial positions were net long, with the speculators doing the exact opposite. Not by a huge margin, but enough that a bigger rally, may already be in progress.

At the very top, it also looks like an expanded pattern may have developed, which would turn my wave 1 bottom into a 4th wave bottom.  At the very least,  this potential bullish phase should clear all peaks presently showing.  Of course, if the expanded pattern is real, then T-Bonds could see a new all time record high. 

Since the early 1980’s the entire T-Bond bullish phase has contained a plethora of choppy wave structures, which I can only interpret as being a huge bear market rally.  Even the Fed Fund rates are crashing which they seemed to do, well before stock market bottoms. 

I’m not an expert on anything to do with the Fed fund rates, but I’m sure they will turn once we see a bottom in the stock market. Most of the time the Fed fund rates, just sit there doing very little or nothing at all. This makes watching their charts about as boring as watching paint dry. 

Any new record high might be a long shot, which would also force a new location for a Cycle degree wave 4 top.  

Market Vane reports can support a bullish phase, but not any super bullish phase lasting many years. 

One other COT set of numbers I noticed were that the commercial traders, are now net short most of the big markets, which was not the case for a very long time. This all helps to support the bearish case regarding the stock markets.  When the commercial’s shift again and become net long, then chances are good that the stock market may have hit a temporary bottom. 

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T-Bond Crash Continues, Intraday Review



Since T-Bonds are still pointing down, or bearish I thought I would take a look at the intraday scale.  I don’t have the time that is required to create a better wave count, but hopefully it will make sense on the weekly chart scale.  It sure looks like T-Bonds crossed to a new low with a 3 wave pattern, which can make this a potential expanded pattern.

It’s a toss up as this would also work as a diagonal 5th wave. From an expanded pattern perspective T-Bonds could soar much more, especially if some traffic comes from the stock markets.  At this time, T-Bonds (TLT)  could have finished a major bull market top just before the Trump election. If this is true, then no amount of destruction in the stock markets, will push T-Bonds to new record highs. 

Once any new trend is established, then no amount of  fundamental news can lift T-Bond prices for very long.  In this case there is always a bit of doubt since the T-Bond bull market had been going since 1982 or so.

T-Bonds would have a very long bear market, but by 2021 it may be ready to reverse once more.  At this time I’m looking for a zigzag crash in Primary degree, and if I think there may be a dramatic alternate to show up, I will adjust it when we get close.  In a big potential bear market all the rallies are wild reversals,  producing choppy and overlapping wave structures. 

Another full moon kicked in yesterday, so maybe T-Bonds like to rally with the full moon. These types of connections have to be back tested or tracked going forward, before there can be any reliability to them. 

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T-Bond 34 year Bull Market Review: Another “D” wave Top?




When we look back to 1982  where this T-Bond bull market started, then we have close to a 34 year bull market already completed.  In reality the majority call it a bull market,  but when we take a critical look at the patterns of the last 34 years, then we can’t find a single set of 5 waves that I can call a pure impulse.  Some come close, but they are only seen in very small degree levels.

I had the entire bull market as a potential 4th wave top in Cycle degree, but this leaves the question of what type of a decline we could expect. Either way they were all very bullish on T-Bonds before the election.

There were so many areas that waves overlapped, which still looks like a big zigzag,  but I dropped down all the degree levels down by one degree.  Any “D” wave will work just like a 4th wave can, so using a “D” wave top can hold for a long time.  A “D” wave Primary Degree top would match the US dollar and Nikkei “D” wave tops of the same degree. When we have a choppy bull market like the T-Bonds had, then this is a sign of a market running against a bigger bearish trend. Depending on the degree, I would always expect a complete retracement of any “D” wave bull market.  The EWP book makes it very clear that large degree “D” waves are  bull traps.

A complete retracement would bring the T-Bonds down to the $55 price level, and if this ends up becoming true, then rates will be going up in the future.  Any “D” wave top is followed by an “E” wave decline, which should at least resemble another zigzag in Intermediate degree.  Any 3 wave decline in T-Bonds, would also match a potential 3 wave decline in the stock markets.

 I’m sure we will see some safe-haven seeking, bond buyers create T-Bond rallies, but any rally will not last, until we get close to an “A” wave bottom in Intermediate degree.  With a potential “E” wave decline, then we should see no more T-Bond record highs, but record lows would be created instead. 

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T-Bond Crash Review: Correction Or A Counter Rally?




We have all heard about the big Trump induced bond crash, but he is going to get blamed for everything, why not this T-Bond crash as well?  Many are calling for a rally as they say this is overdone. If we call this a correction, then, those that do, are still on the bullish bandwagon. If this is the real case, then these US Treasuray Bond Futures, must break out and break a new record high. On the flip side, if this crash is just the beginning of a much bigger bear market, then we can only get another counter rally.  Looking at this from a potential counter rally move, is what I’m looking for, in the coming weeks or months ahead. 

I will try and be more consistent in my descriptions, so when I talk about a correction, then my bigger outlook will be bullish,  but when I use the wording, “counter rally”,  then my larger degree outlook is still bearish.

It is not economic rocket science to know that when bonds crash, they produce higher rates in the market place. We can see the effects of higher rates already, as many are calling for a rate hike. Only time will tell us more, but if we are right with the bigger picture, then any anticipated counter rally will run out of steam, and then resume its real trend. After all, a starting set of 5 waves down, can point us in the direction of a new trend.

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T-Bond $1 Trillion PLunge Review: 1982-2016



Not too many analysts will show you a 35 year bull market. I like to use the Fibonacci 34 year time period, even though it is a bit longer. This chart topped out on July, 6, 2016, but I called a top just one month after, on August, 20, 2016.

 When we look at this T-Bond market, starting back in September 1981, What patterns stand out the most? Do we see any great looking impulse waves like what the book shows us? No, not at all! Those pretty idealized waves they show in the EWP blue book, don’t exist.

They don’t exist, and the main reason is that they all show nice and pretty waves all exactly the same  length. Folks, this never happens at any degree level. I spent close to 20 years, counting waves, and I have “Never” seen a wave structure, like what they show us in the book. 

What we have above is a wild and crazy set of diagonal waves, telling us that this entire bull market has traveled against the bigger trend.  This Trillion Dollar crash should be just the tip of the iceberg, and there should be far more damage to come.  When these T-Bonds continue to crash, then interest rates should go higher, forcing the Fed to do the same. 

We’ve had major bond crashes before, but in a bullish phase, crashes always recovered and then retraced 100% of their declines.  Now, and for the foreseeable future, any rally should be a false rally, and then get completely retraced, as it resumes the bearish trend.

A Trillion dollars went up in smoke, and I’m sure we will see many more fires as time goes on. They will have to put a supercharger on the printing press motor, as they can’t print the money fast enough to make up the trillions that will still get lost. 

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T-Bonds 1981-2016 Review




This is a very rough wave count with this T-Bond chart. What I did notice was another recent high ending with a small spike.  This bond bull market is what allows the government to keep rates low, but rates would have to go up once these bonds start a major decline. Even a small decline may have the same psychological  impact as a bigger move.

Right now T-Bonds are touching the top of the trend line, and we will have to wait and see, if and when another leg can happen.  From the early 1980’s the T-Bond bull market has displayed diagonal waves, which fit much better as a big bear market rally than a true bull market. Just because it goes up does not mean it’s in a bull market, even though the majority will call it a bull market.

The choppy patterns send us a signal, that this  bull market could get completely retraced in the years ahead. It will not happen overnight, but in the next few years a big correction could happen once Cycle degree wave 3 in stocks has been completed.  

I don’t have time to maintain this wave count as I would have to go back in history many more decades to get close.  

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