I see the trend with our Canadian dollar as still be down. Since the 2011 peak coincided with gold, the CAD bearish phase really took off. From the 2016 bottom we have what is nearly a perfect inverted zigzag, which are just bear market rallies. To confirm this the CAD must still completley retrace its entire move below the 2016 low. Commercials are already building up their net long positions but that can swing just as fast. Not until the hedge funds turn extremely bearish and commercials far more skewed, can I turn bullish on our Canadian dollar. Even the Market Vane report only shows about 50/50 bullish readings, which is not even close to being extreme at this time.
The CAD started a decline but it has been very choppy just like a diagonal wave structure in a 5th wave can be. Even when the chart is still fairly high, our CAD can free fall the rest of the way to a new record low.
The Death Cross has already formed in the daily chart but is still a bit short from the Death Cross on this weekly chart! What has more power? COT numbers or another Death Cross. Hopefully we will find out more this fall, as I put my vote on a Death Cross having the real power!