Since the 2011 peak when all the experts were bullish on our Canadian Dollar, it turned and started to crash. Our CAD started a bearish trend that still has not finished. The 2011 peak matched the gold&silver peak as well so when the CAD crashed so did gold stock related asset classes. Since 2011 each counter rally has proven to be a bear market rally as record lows were continuously broken.
Since the 2016 bottom, the experts claim that the CAD is back in a bull market. From the December 2018 low our CAD exploded which really got the CAD bulls all excited again. The thing is no new record lows have been produced which has to happen for the markets to confirm a bear market rally is still in progress. On this chart, the .68 cent price level would certainly confirm that a bear market rally has taken place. Since the 2017 peak, the CAD declined in a choppy fashion which fits best as a diagonal set of 5 waves down.
None of the COT reports are of any use until the US government shutdown is resolved and even then we may get a surprise or two with a potential “COT Shock”. As much as I’m still bearish on the CAD it doesn’t mean it will stop on a dime and head south again.
This sideways move has also produced a Golden Cross but now the “Death Cross” is clearly visible. The CAD would have to switch back to a Golden Cross in order for the bullish leg to keep going.