When any wave positions I have, that do not seem to fit well, then I try and review any 5 wave sequence I might be working on. In this case there is still a very good chance that our Cad still has to crash to a new record low, even if it just makes a brief double bottom. The only way that I can make the 4th wave fit, is that the 5th wave is a diagonal wave structure. An inverted zigzag 4th wave is still the best fit. Commercials have a net long position, but not enough to turn super bullish on our dollar!
Our Canadian dollar has to soar to support a surging gold price, but this is still far away from happening. The AUD has far more commercial net long positions, with a ratio of more than 5:1.
The CAD Market Vane Report (MV) is fairley bullish, with about 47-48% bulls present with Tuesday’s report that leaves lots of room for bulls to come back in.
Even when some COT reports get to an extreme, they can make dramatic shifts, but dumping longs, at the same time they take on short positions can extend any trend.