At this point our Canadian dollar is still sinking that some say is the end of the Candaina dollar bull market. Hate to break the bad news folks, but the Canadian dollar bull market ended about 10 years ago. What we are in is the impending end of our Canadian dollar bear market. This end is still a few years away as we still would have wave 4-5 in Minute degree to work through. We know what a pain in the ass some of these last waves can be, as the markets will always throw something at us to keep us scratching our heads.
Commercials are net short and that situation would also have to shift to a point when commercials are net long again by a wide margin.
Right now our CAD could be getting close to being a single flat, so until we break the May 2017 lows, our CAD can still reverse. So far this would be the least likely scenario, but a another counter rally should happen by the end of next week. There are many turning points following the month to month pattern, but that is not written in stone.
So far the rally peak in 2017 looks like an inverted zigzag did play out, which means 100% of the entire bullish move that started in 2016 should get retraced. The CAD is going down along with the solar cycle #24 which means that solar cycle #25 pulling the CAD down. Any end to the big CAD bear market, could take until solar cycle #24 has ended.
I follow the solar cycles as the sun rules this planet and if we ignore it’s cycles we will miss every bull and bear market that will ever come. At one time the CAD acted just like Bitcoin has, so to say that this crypto thing is ushering in a “new era” is not something new. The “New Era” economy is already here folks, and it’s more like a “New Era” market recession that is coming to Canada.
I will occasionally insert the solar cycle chart which does not need rocket science to understand its basic pattern. Last month we saw a little jump in sunspot activity, which buys us more time as the solar cycle will roll around the bottom for awhile. So far we had a 12 day stretch with “no” sunspot activity, so this chart should dip down again when the next chart is released in early April.