The chart above shows how bullish the commercial hedgers are, so working a bearish wave count against their bearish outlook is like playing “Chicken”, so we have to be aware that a potential rally could surprise us.
Our Cad futures chart has been grinding down for years since the 2017 peak, which I believe was an inverted zigzag. The US Dollar produced the same type of choppy waves in a 5th wave decline and at that time the USD commercials were also net long by a wide margin.
This decline is part of the bear market so the CAD can still grind its way to the .68 cent price level or even lower. There are no daily trading limits in commodities futures so there is nothing to stop any move until it exhausts itself. Our CAD was repelled in 2011 by solar cycle 24s, second peak.
The end of solar cycle 24 is pulling the CAD down, but when solar cycle 25 starts up, our CAD should soar right along with it.