It’s understandable that our Canadian dollar is taking a beating as another move south happened during the night. Our great visionary leaders creating the economic civil war on fossil fuels here in Canada is to blame.
Since the September 2017 wave 4 peaks the Canadian dollar has been in a steady bearish decline that is not a pure impulse, but a diagonal impulse as it is still a set of 5 waves. It may sound silly or stupid but you could label this same daily chart 3-4 different ways.
A triangle (ABCDE) wave count would work as well as (WXYXZ). The difference is that only one can travel to new record lows while the triangle and (WXYXZ) can’t.
The January 2019 low is the low to beat, but the 68 cent price low would be ideal. The commercial hedgers are still net long by a ratio of more than 2:1 and last week they added more long positions.
The speculators see the opposite as they are bearish by more than a 3:1 ratio. Both groups can’t be right in their directions so sooner or later one group will be proven wrong. When one group realizes they are wrong, it can cause a mini panic.
Even then it doesn’t mean a major reversal of our CAD is guaranteed. The first low to beat would be the .732 cent price level with .68 cents being the ultimate goal.